Positioning The Nuclear Sector In A Greener World Roger Emmott Jan 2009
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This presentation was written to show the nuclear sector in the context of world energy demand and usage. Sources and uses of carbon dioxide emissions are profiled. Nuclear energy meets about 16% of the world's energy needs and this is forecast to rise as more reactors are built. Once installed, nuclear energy emits very little carbon dioxide. Nuclear waste is an issue, but the risks are manageable. Current philosophy is to store, not reprocess waste. History has shown that reprocesing plants are very accident-prone. Volumes of waste are not high (relatively speaking).
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Positioning The Nuclear Sector In A Greener World Roger Emmott Jan 2009
- 1. Positioning the nuclear sector in a greener world
- 2. 1945
- 3. 1958
- 5. 2008
- 6. 2008
- 7. For every 22 tonnes of uranium used, more than one million tonnes of CO2 emissions are averted 2008
- 8. World demand for energy has grown by 2.7% annually in the last 20 years Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy None of these can be eliminated or market needs could not be met
- 9. The market has responded and found more reserves of key energy resources Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, WNA Years 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Oil Natural gas Uranium Coal Yearsreserves
- 10. The world GHG emissions flow chart shows that CO2 accounts for 77% of all emissions Source:World Resources Institute
- 11. Higher Global Warming Potential (GWP) than CO2 Symbol Gas GWP SF6 Sulphur Hexafluoride 23900 CFCs Chlorofluorocarbons 9300 CF4 Tetrafluoromethane 6500 HCFCs Hydrochlorofluorocarbons 1700 HFCs Hydrofluorocarbons 1300 N2O Nitrous oxide 310 CH4 Methane 21 CO2 Carbon dioxide 1 Source: US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) Compounds with the highest GWPs are either prohibited or in very limited use
- 12. Electricity generation and transport account for over half of all greenhouse gas emissions 0 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Electricity generation Source:World Nuclear Association 100% 28% 22% 10% 10% Transport Industry Residential and other Total GHG Emissions Approx 40 bn tonnes Methane Nitrous Oxide Other CO2 There is increasing interest in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – but at least another decade until this is commercially available?
- 13. World CO2 emissions 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 7000000 CO2 emissions, tonnes/year Co2emissions,tonnesperpersonperyear USA China + Taiwan EU Canada Australia Saudi Arabia World average Source: Wikipedia
- 14. Per capita CO2 emissions CO2 emission per capita 0 5 10 15 20 25 United States Canada AustraliaSaudiArabia Russia Germ any JapanSouth Korea United KingdomSouth Africa European Union Italy Spain Ukraine Iran France Mexico China and Taiwan BrazilIndonesia India TonensCO2percapitaperyear World average Source: Wikipedia
- 15. Greenhouse gas emissions have reduced as technology has improved…nuclear still in front Greenhouse gas emissions 0 100 200 300 400 500 Coal Gas Solar HydroWind Nuclear GrammesCO2perequivalentKWh Old technology New technology Source:IAEA Solar panels and wind turbines consume CO2 during manufacture Hydro – reservoirs emits methane especially in hot climates
- 16. Higher Uranium prices made marginal mines attractive and enabled market growth 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Uraniumprice,$/lb Source: Cameco
- 17. Uranium prices have risen much less than oil prices over 20 years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Relativeprice Uranium relative Oil relative Source: Cameco and BP
- 18. Uranium and crude oil prices 1988 - 2008 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Uraniumprice$/lb,crudeoilprice$/bbl Uranium price $/lb Oil price $/bbl Source: Cameco/BP
- 19. There will be over 800 reactors in operation if all planned and proposed are built Growth in Nuclear Reactors Worldwide 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Numbers Operating 2008 Under construction Planned Proposed 439 36 99 232 Source:World Nuclear Association
- 20. Geographic spread of reactor growth Nuclear reactors worldwide - 2008 and planned 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 U SA C hina R ussia Japan France India U kraine Korea R O (South) C anadaSouth Africa U nited Kingdom Numberofreactors 2008 Future Source:World Nuclear Association
- 21. Nuclear industry lifecycle costs 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Mining Enrichment Fuel Fabrication Plant Operations Build and Decomm’n Plant Conversion Waste Mgmt Lifecyclecost,PJ/1000MWe Source:World Nuclear Association
- 22. Uranium mine near Kakadu National Park, Australia
- 23. Yellowcake
- 24. Enrichment
- 25. Enrichment
- 26. Fuel fabrication
- 27. Plant operations
- 28. The UK Government’s View – on nuclear power • Having reviewed the arguments and evidence put forward, the Government believes that the energy sector, nuclear and otherwise, faces challenges in meeting its need for skilled workers and in the capacity of the manufacturing supply chain to support new construction. • Indeed, a nuclear renaissance, here and around the world, presents opportunities for companies to grow and for individuals to have rewarding careers. We conclude, therefore, that the skills and supply chain situation does not provide a reason to prevent energy companies from investing in new nuclear power stations. • We believe that the situation is manageable and that building new nuclear power stations does not present a significantly greater challenge than the alternatives. Source: UK Government White Paper, 2008
- 29. International Nuclear Event Scale 7. Major Accident 6. Serious Accident 5. Accident, wider consequences 4. Accident, local consequences 3. Serious Incident 2. Incident 1. Anomaly 0 Deviation (No Safety Significance) Source: IAEA Logscale
- 31. International Nuclear Event Scale The world’s worst nuclear events…. 7. Major Accident 6. Serious Accident 5. Accident, wider consequences 4. Accident, local consequences 3. Serious Incident 2. Incident 1. Anomaly 0 Deviation (No Safety Significance) Source: IAEA Chernobyl, 1986 Mayak, 1957 Windscale, 1957 Three Mile Island, 1979 Logscale
- 32. International Nuclear Event Scale 21 events at Sellafield/Windscale 7. Major Accident 6. Serious Accident 5. Accident, wider consequences 4. Accident, local consequences 3. Serious Incident 2. Incident 1. Anomaly 0 Deviation (No Safety Significance) Source: IAEA Windscale, 1957 Logscale 5 Accidents 15 Serious Incidents
- 33. • Having reviewed the arguments and evidence put forward, and in the absence of any proposals from industry, the Government has concluded that any new nuclear power stations that might be built in the UK should proceed on the basis that spent fuel will not be reprocessed and that plans for, and financing of, waste management should proceed on this basis. • We are not currently expecting any proposals to reprocess spent fuel from new nuclear power stations. Should such proposals come forward in the future, they would need to be considered on their merits at the time and the Government would expect to consult on them. Source: UK Government White Paper, 2008 The UK Government’s View – on nuclear waste
- 34. Volumes of waste from modern nuclear reactors are manageable… Annual waste from 1000 MWe reactor 0 50 100 150 200 250 Low level Medium level High level m3waste Source: World Nuclear Association
- 35. Existing waste strategies… • There is about 270,000 tonnes of existing spent fuel in storage, much of it at reactor sites • Current annual arisings of spent fuel are 12,000 tonnes (HLW) • Currently about 3,000 tonnes is reprocessed annually • The preferred option is now to deal high level waste in special glass, and store it in long-term underground sites with stable geology (and after 40 years, even high level waste is only one thousandth of its original radioactivity…more manageable) • Finland and Sweden have well advanced plans • Russia and Australia have proposals • The USA has proposed a central storage facility in Nevada but this is beset with regulatory issues and much opposition • Reprocessing is falling out of favour • Storage appears to be the answer – but many unresolved issues remain Source: World Nuclear Association
- 36. World demand for energy will continue to grow Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy Nuclear energy will continue to have a role in meeting the world’s energy needs in a responsible and low carbon emission manner