Come join the Michigan Energy Forum on Thursday April 5 as we discuss the role of nuclear energy in Michigan and abroad in addressing global climate change. Panelists will include representatives from industry, academia, and the State who will share their views of the role that nuclear energy should play to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and generate economic development opportunities. While nuclear energy can be a very controversial topic, the purpose of this forum is to discuss the science, economics, and risks and rewards of nuclear energy and to learn more about what is going on in Michigan. Please join us on April 5 for this exciting forum.

1. Nuclear Power and Greenhouse Gases
What Can (and Can’t) Nuclear do for
Greenhouse Gases
Kevin Krause
Michigan Public Service Commission
April 5, 2012

2. Nuclear and Greenhouse Gases
• Background
• Good News for Nuclear and GHG
• Bad News for Nuclear and GHG
• Really Bad News for Nuclear and GHG
• Other Information

3. Background: Electricity Generation by Region as a %
Michigan
2010

4. Background (cont.)
Reducing the amount of electricity
• We can Reduce GHG by Reducing Electricity Consumption
• Historically, the amount of Electricity represented by these
pie charts increases with time
• Overall electricity demand (growth) is primarily a function of:
• Economic growth
• Energy Efficiency
• Technological Innovation (conversion to electric cars for
example)

5. Background (cont.)
Fuel switching
• Reducing GHGs by fuel switching
• From Coal or Oil to Natural Gas
• Reduces CO2 by about 50%
• Practically eliminates SOX, NOX and Mercury
• From Coal, Oil or Natural Gas to Nuclear and
Renewables
• Virtually eliminates CO2, SOX, NOX and Mercury

6. Background: Pacala/Socolow Wedge
Terms
BAU – Business as Usual
WRE500 – Wigley, Richels, and
Edmonds – stabilizing
atmospheric CO2 at 500 ppm
Stabilization Triangle – each
wedge represents a potential
reduction of 1 GtC/yr at the
end of 50 years or 25 GtC over
the 50 year period

7. Good News for Nuclear and GHG
• Nuclear could provide one of the Pacala/Sokolow wedges
• Requires building 14 – 1,000 MWe reactors/year for the next
50 years (all build rates are global)
• The best historic decade, 1981-1990, saw a growth rate of 20
– 1,000 MWe reactors/year
• The nuclear supply chain has done it before, and could
likely do it again
• With dramatic attention to the supply chain, a second wedge
or part of one could be attainable
• Plant uprates and higher capacity factors lead to more
nuclear generation from the same number of facilities.

8. Bad News for Nuclear and GHG
• One or two wedges is nice – but we need seven to stabilize at
500ppm CO2
• Replacing existing nuclear generation requires building 7.4 –
1,000 MWe reactors/year for the next 50 years
• 14 (for the wedge) + 7.4 (for replacement) = 21.4
(higher than the best decade)
• In 2007, worldwide rate of build was 7.2 – 1,000 MWe
reactors/year (assuming announced plans over 30 years)
• 7.2 is slightly less than the rate required for current
fleet replacement
• The nuclear supply chain in the US has deteriorated from
peak
• Capacity factors cannot go too much higher

9. Bad News for Nuclear and GHG (cont.)
Natural Gas
• Very low natural gas prices
• Many indicators in the current market point to natural
gas as the fuel of choice in the short term
• Natural Gas generation advantages
• Very low capital cost for a generation facility
• Short lead time for building a generation facility
• Easy permitting process for a generation facility
• Easy to site a generation facility
Note: Replacing Coal with Natural Gas is good for GHG emissions

10. Really Bad News for Nuclear and GHG
Japan
• There were 55 nuclear reactors in Japan
• As of today only one is generating electricity
• Scheduled for maintenance shutdown May 5, 2012
• Reserve oil units have been used to partially make up loss of
generation
• Rapid building taking place of natural gas generation and
renewables
• Unknown if or when shutdown units will ever be restarted
• Conclusion: In the short term Japan has/will dramatically
increase its CO2 output. The long term is to be decided.

11. Really Bad News for Nuclear and GHG
Liquefied Natural Gas tanker unloading in Japan

12. Other Information
References
•Nuclear Power Joint Fact-finding
• http://keystone.org/files/file/about/publications/FinalReport
•Pacala/Socolow
• http://cmi.princeton.edu/resources/pdfs/carbon_plan.pdf
•US Electricity generation www.eia.doe.gov
•International generation www.iea.org

13. Questions?
www.michigan.gov/mpsc