The political risk outlook investment pack examines political risk trends & events for the month ahead and discusses the implications for market. This summary pack is made available one-week after the release of the full pack for subscribers.
Indonesia Economy and ASEAN Economic Community by rizal djaafaraBudi Rachmat
1) The Indonesian economy grew 5.02% in 2014, driven by strong domestic demand and resilient household consumption. Exports declined due to weak global demand.
2) Inflation decreased to 6.96% in January 2015 due to falling administered prices and volatile food prices. Core inflation remained under control.
3) Indonesia's balance of payments recorded a surplus of $2.4 billion in Q4 2014 and $15.2 billion for the full year 2014, supported by a capital and financial account surplus that exceeded a current account deficit. Foreign reserves increased to $114.2 billion in January 2015.
Indian industrial output grew modestly by 0.7% in September, led by a 0.9% rise in manufacturing. However, capital goods output declined sharply by 21.6%, indicating weak investment. Consumer durables grew at a stronger 14% due to high urban demand. CPI inflation eased to a 14-month low of 4.2% in October driven by lower food prices, particularly for vegetables, pulses and fruits. Going forward, the government's demonetization policy is expected to weigh on consumption and industrial production for at least a quarter, while lowering unnecessary demand-driven inflation.
GDP growth in India picked up to 7.9% in Q1 2016 driven by private and public consumption, while exports contracted and investment growth deteriorated. Overall growth for FY2015/2016 was 7.6%. Private consumption will remain strong but sluggish investment growth and reluctance of banks to provide new credit are causes for concern. Euler Hermes expects GDP growth to stabilize at 7.6% in FY2016/2017.
Oecd interim-economic-outlook-2015-puzzles-and-uncertainties-paris-16-septemberOECD, Economics Department
The OECD interim economic outlook report provides the following key points:
- Global growth remains subpar and below expectations in 2015 and early 2016 due to slower growth in major economies like China and emerging markets.
- Advanced economies like the US and euro area are recovering slowly, held back by weak investment. Japan's growth is improving but erratic.
- China is experiencing a sharper than expected slowdown, seen in declining imports, property prices and manufacturing indicators, posing risks to the global economy.
- Many emerging markets face slowing growth due to weaker Chinese demand and low commodity prices, while also dealing with deteriorating financial conditions.
- Rising US interest rates could pose challenges, especially for emerging markets that have
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic performance and outlook in 2014 and 2015. In 2014, GDP growth remained strong between 6.2-6.5% despite global headwinds. However, declining oil prices, currency pressures, and interest rate hikes impacted the economy in Q4. The 2015 budget assumes lower oil prices and revenues, aiming to transition Nigeria away from an oil-driven economy. Macroeconomic trends are mixed with interest rates expected to remain elevated as the central bank works to curb excess liquidity and inflation. Challenges around the national elections and oil price volatility pose risks to the economic outlook.
Indonesia Economy and ASEAN Economic Community by rizal djaafaraBudi Rachmat
1) The Indonesian economy grew 5.02% in 2014, driven by strong domestic demand and resilient household consumption. Exports declined due to weak global demand.
2) Inflation decreased to 6.96% in January 2015 due to falling administered prices and volatile food prices. Core inflation remained under control.
3) Indonesia's balance of payments recorded a surplus of $2.4 billion in Q4 2014 and $15.2 billion for the full year 2014, supported by a capital and financial account surplus that exceeded a current account deficit. Foreign reserves increased to $114.2 billion in January 2015.
Indian industrial output grew modestly by 0.7% in September, led by a 0.9% rise in manufacturing. However, capital goods output declined sharply by 21.6%, indicating weak investment. Consumer durables grew at a stronger 14% due to high urban demand. CPI inflation eased to a 14-month low of 4.2% in October driven by lower food prices, particularly for vegetables, pulses and fruits. Going forward, the government's demonetization policy is expected to weigh on consumption and industrial production for at least a quarter, while lowering unnecessary demand-driven inflation.
GDP growth in India picked up to 7.9% in Q1 2016 driven by private and public consumption, while exports contracted and investment growth deteriorated. Overall growth for FY2015/2016 was 7.6%. Private consumption will remain strong but sluggish investment growth and reluctance of banks to provide new credit are causes for concern. Euler Hermes expects GDP growth to stabilize at 7.6% in FY2016/2017.
Oecd interim-economic-outlook-2015-puzzles-and-uncertainties-paris-16-septemberOECD, Economics Department
The OECD interim economic outlook report provides the following key points:
- Global growth remains subpar and below expectations in 2015 and early 2016 due to slower growth in major economies like China and emerging markets.
- Advanced economies like the US and euro area are recovering slowly, held back by weak investment. Japan's growth is improving but erratic.
- China is experiencing a sharper than expected slowdown, seen in declining imports, property prices and manufacturing indicators, posing risks to the global economy.
- Many emerging markets face slowing growth due to weaker Chinese demand and low commodity prices, while also dealing with deteriorating financial conditions.
- Rising US interest rates could pose challenges, especially for emerging markets that have
Euro Area is recovering slowly, with its major member countries registering lower-than-expected growth rates in the third quarter. Major Asian economies have shown diverse growth trends in the last few quarters. We cover this in the section on Global Trends in this month’s issue of Economy Matters.
In the section on Domestic Trends, we discuss the trends emanating out of the recent releases on GDP, Current Account, IIP and Inflation data during the month of December 2013.
The Sectoral spotlight for this issue is on Electricity, which remains an important contributor to GDP growth. We evaluate the impact of the Electricity Act, 2003 on the sector’s performance.
In the Special Article, we provide a snapshot of India’s exports sector along with analyzing the important sectors in exports such as services and tourism.
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic performance and outlook in 2014 and 2015. In 2014, GDP growth remained strong between 6.2-6.5% despite global headwinds. However, declining oil prices, currency pressures, and interest rate hikes impacted the economy in Q4. The 2015 budget assumes lower oil prices and revenues, aiming to transition Nigeria away from an oil-driven economy. Macroeconomic trends are mixed with interest rates expected to remain elevated as the central bank works to curb excess liquidity and inflation. Challenges around the national elections and oil price volatility pose risks to the economic outlook.
Detailed write up on the impact of COVID on various aspects of life. This was published in the Mumbai university Research Journal in the month of June 2020.
The document provides an economic analysis of Jordan covering recent developments from 2014-2015 and the macroeconomic outlook from 2015-2017. Recent key points include:
- Real GDP grew 3.1% in 2014 driven by mining, agriculture, and construction. Inflation moderated to 2.9% and turned negative in 2015.
- The current account deficit narrowed to 6.8% of GDP in 2014 as exports grew and grants increased. The fiscal deficit also narrowed to 2.3% of GDP due to fiscal consolidation and higher grants.
- International reserves increased to $14.1 billion as confidence in the Jordanian dinar grew. The banking sector saw deposits grow 9.7% while lending grew moderately at
The document is a 2014 economic survey of India by the OECD that makes several recommendations:
1. India's economy is recovering but more reforms are needed to sustain growth above 8%, including reducing subsidies, increasing infrastructure investment, and tax reform.
2. Structural barriers have hampered growth and job creation, especially in manufacturing, and parts of the banking system are vulnerable.
3. Increasing opportunities for women could boost growth by over 2% by raising equity and the number of quality jobs.
4. Public health care is poor for most Indians and increased spending is recommended.
The document provides an overview of the key topics covered in the Indian Economic Survey of 2011-12, including:
1) What is an economic survey and its purpose of reviewing the previous year's economic performance and prospects.
2) The status of the Indian economy in 2011-12, with growth estimated at 6.9% compared to 8.4% in the previous two years, largely due to weakening industrial growth.
3) Highlights and conclusions from the survey covering fiscal developments, prices and monetary policy, trade, agriculture, industry, infrastructure and other sectors.
Bank deposits rose 1.2% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year in February as both businesses and households increased savings despite economic slowdown. Manufacturing output grew slightly by 0.7% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year in February, led by wood, metals, and furniture industries. Inflation rose to 0.4% in March due to both global commodity prices and domestic factors. Conditions are expected to be favorable for lending to improve following new housing loan rules and Eurosystem stimulus measures.
This document summarizes key fiscal and economic developments in India in 2020-21. It notes that monthly GST collections have reached their highest levels since the introduction of GST. Merchandise exports contracted by 15.7% in April-December 2020 compared to the same period the previous year, with petroleum, oil and lubricants exports contributing negatively. Rural-urban differences in consumer price inflation declined, with food inflation converging. The share of agriculture in India's gross value added at current prices was 17.8% for 2019-20. The document is ready to answer questions on these topics. It provides references to the Indian economic survey and other sources for more details.
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
- China's economic growth eased to 7.4% in 2014 due to slowing investment and consumption growth. Inflation also slowed to 2.0% due to falling real estate and commodity prices.
- The current account surplus rose to 2.1% of GDP in 2014 as lower commodity prices reduced imports more than weak exports reduced the surplus.
- Looking ahead, China is expected to continue shifting towards a more consumer-led economy, with growth slowing gradually to around 6.0% by 2017 as investment declines and consumption increases. Inflation is projected to remain low in the near term.
The document analyzes Zambia's economic performance in Q1 2015. Key points include:
- Global economic recovery remains fragile, impacting Zambia through lower commodity prices and trade.
- Inflation dropped for three months to 7.2% due to lower oil prices reducing non-food inflation.
- The kwacha depreciated in Q1 against the dollar due to a strong dollar, low copper prices, and domestic issues.
- Preliminary estimates show Zambia's economy grew 1.25% in Q1, lower than previous quarters due to contractions in mining output.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. Some key points:
- Expectations of economic recovery were dashed as the naira fell sharply, growth estimates declined, and power output remained low.
- Inflation jumped to 16.5% while business activity showed only marginal signs of recovery. Oil prices declined further, hurting government revenues.
- Global factors like slower growth in China, lower commodity prices, and cautious monetary policies in developed countries pose risks for Nigeria's economy.
- Domestic challenges include high inflation, fuel scarcity and price increases, and weak manufacturing activity, though some indicators showed slight improvements. The outlook remains uncertain.
Us econ ppt lynchburg 3-4-2011 final_dr.shealynchburg
The U.S. economy is recovering slowly with decent GDP growth and a slowly improving labor market, though unemployment remains high. Inflation remains low despite rising commodity prices. Recent forecasts point to accelerating growth in 2011 of around 3.5%. Some data signals like consumer confidence are encouraging, but other data like durable goods orders have been weak. Housing prices continue to decline due to excess supply, which could dampen consumer spending. Upside risks include normal cyclical dynamics boosting growth, while downside risks include higher oil prices and fiscal austerity measures dampening growth.
The OECD chief economist assessed the economic risks of the coronavirus outbreak. If contained to China, it could reduce world GDP by 0.5% in 2020, but a wider spread could lower GDP by 1.5% as demand falls in Asia, Europe, and North America. Government responses like increased health spending, tax relief for affected industries, and coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus across countries could help offset economic losses.
The document summarizes recent economic data from the UK. It notes that GDP growth slowed to 0.5% in the third quarter of 2015, with services growth remaining strong but manufacturing and construction declining. Unemployment has fallen to 5.4%, its lowest since 2008, with reductions across age groups and durations of unemployment. Average weekly earnings grew 2.8% in the latest period, with private sector pay growth stronger than public sector. Real earnings growth has picked up from post-downturn lows but remains below pre-2008 levels in most industries.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in October 2015. It discusses key economic indicators such as GDP growth estimates of 2.5% for Q3, a rise in power supply to 4,500MW, stable government revenue of N442.6 billion, inflation increasing to 9.3%, and lower interest rates following a reduction in the cash reserve ratio. It also summarizes global and commodity market conditions, and their impact on the domestic economy. Overall, the outlook expects inflation to rise further to 9.4% in September and interest rates to remain below 10%.
The document summarizes the impacts of COVID-19 on the Bangladeshi economy. It discusses how the pandemic has disrupted livelihoods and reduced incomes. Key sectors like textiles have been affected. The government announced stimulus packages including loans, but the economy is still expected to decline by 3-4%. Challenges in implementing social distancing due to population density are also noted. International assistance is needed to help Bangladesh minimize the pandemic's impacts.
The document provides an economic bulletin with the following key points:
1) Global economic growth remained moderate in the third quarter of 2015, with divergence across major economies. US and UK growth appeared to slow, while Japan's growth remained subdued. China's growth showed a gradual slowdown.
2) Euro area financial markets showed some volatility, with bond yields declining and stock prices rising slightly. The euro remained stable.
3) Euro area economic recovery is proceeding, supported by private consumption. GDP rose 0.4% in Q2 2015 and a similar pace is expected in Q3. Recovery is expected to continue but dampened by weak foreign demand.
Effects Of Terrorism On Pakistan EconomyFJeconomist
Terrorism has negatively impacted Pakistan's economy in several ways over the past two decades. It has caused a rise in security spending and production costs, a fall in business confidence and foreign investment, and hampered GDP growth. Specific effects included increased government spending on non-productive security, a decline in exports and tourism, and a rising burden on society through greater disability and health spending. Macroeconomic indicators suffered and maintaining economic growth became increasingly difficult as resources were diverted to counterterrorism efforts.
Political risk outlook investment pack - March 2015Damian Karmelich
A leadership crisis in Australia, rising food prices across Asia and Russia’s search for security are all shaping markets. The Political Monitor Political Risk Outlook Investment Pack examines these issues and more, including:
Australian Political Risk Index - examines how recent political events have unnerved investors
- State in focus: a change of government in the resource rich state of Queensland
- The impact of rising food prices in Asia
- Countries in focus: Indonesia, Philippines and Viet Nam
- Global outlook - how events in the EU and Russia are shaping markets.
Political risk outlook investment pack - March 2014 - slideshareDamian Karmelich
The Political Monitor monthly political risk outlook pack examines key political trends and events likely to shape markets in the month ahead. It includes political risk scores, indices and analysis of the interplay between politics & markets.
Political risk outlook investment pack - August 2014Damian Karmelich
The Political Monitor August political risk outlook investment pack includes the Australian Political Risk Index, political risk spreads, country risk analysis for China, India and Indonesia, an examination of geo-political events on oil prices and a review of political risk across Africa.
Food inflation occurs when the prices of food items consistently rise over a period of time rather than seasonally or suddenly. In Pakistan, food inflation has fluctuated over the past few decades from as low as 1.68% in 1999-2000 to as high as 26.61% in 2008-2009. High food inflation significantly impacts poorer segments of the population where food constitutes a larger portion of expenses. Common causes of food inflation in Pakistan include a lack of agricultural infrastructure, volatile weather conditions, increases in global food and oil prices, black market activities, and shortages in supply. Potential solutions involve cracking down on hoarding and black markets, allowing greater private sector imports, improving storage facilities, and releasing buffer stocks in a timely
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Detailed write up on the impact of COVID on various aspects of life. This was published in the Mumbai university Research Journal in the month of June 2020.
The document provides an economic analysis of Jordan covering recent developments from 2014-2015 and the macroeconomic outlook from 2015-2017. Recent key points include:
- Real GDP grew 3.1% in 2014 driven by mining, agriculture, and construction. Inflation moderated to 2.9% and turned negative in 2015.
- The current account deficit narrowed to 6.8% of GDP in 2014 as exports grew and grants increased. The fiscal deficit also narrowed to 2.3% of GDP due to fiscal consolidation and higher grants.
- International reserves increased to $14.1 billion as confidence in the Jordanian dinar grew. The banking sector saw deposits grow 9.7% while lending grew moderately at
The document is a 2014 economic survey of India by the OECD that makes several recommendations:
1. India's economy is recovering but more reforms are needed to sustain growth above 8%, including reducing subsidies, increasing infrastructure investment, and tax reform.
2. Structural barriers have hampered growth and job creation, especially in manufacturing, and parts of the banking system are vulnerable.
3. Increasing opportunities for women could boost growth by over 2% by raising equity and the number of quality jobs.
4. Public health care is poor for most Indians and increased spending is recommended.
The document provides an overview of the key topics covered in the Indian Economic Survey of 2011-12, including:
1) What is an economic survey and its purpose of reviewing the previous year's economic performance and prospects.
2) The status of the Indian economy in 2011-12, with growth estimated at 6.9% compared to 8.4% in the previous two years, largely due to weakening industrial growth.
3) Highlights and conclusions from the survey covering fiscal developments, prices and monetary policy, trade, agriculture, industry, infrastructure and other sectors.
Bank deposits rose 1.2% month-on-month and 4.9% year-on-year in February as both businesses and households increased savings despite economic slowdown. Manufacturing output grew slightly by 0.7% month-on-month and 1.8% year-on-year in February, led by wood, metals, and furniture industries. Inflation rose to 0.4% in March due to both global commodity prices and domestic factors. Conditions are expected to be favorable for lending to improve following new housing loan rules and Eurosystem stimulus measures.
This document summarizes key fiscal and economic developments in India in 2020-21. It notes that monthly GST collections have reached their highest levels since the introduction of GST. Merchandise exports contracted by 15.7% in April-December 2020 compared to the same period the previous year, with petroleum, oil and lubricants exports contributing negatively. Rural-urban differences in consumer price inflation declined, with food inflation converging. The share of agriculture in India's gross value added at current prices was 17.8% for 2019-20. The document is ready to answer questions on these topics. It provides references to the Indian economic survey and other sources for more details.
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
- China's economic growth eased to 7.4% in 2014 due to slowing investment and consumption growth. Inflation also slowed to 2.0% due to falling real estate and commodity prices.
- The current account surplus rose to 2.1% of GDP in 2014 as lower commodity prices reduced imports more than weak exports reduced the surplus.
- Looking ahead, China is expected to continue shifting towards a more consumer-led economy, with growth slowing gradually to around 6.0% by 2017 as investment declines and consumption increases. Inflation is projected to remain low in the near term.
The document analyzes Zambia's economic performance in Q1 2015. Key points include:
- Global economic recovery remains fragile, impacting Zambia through lower commodity prices and trade.
- Inflation dropped for three months to 7.2% due to lower oil prices reducing non-food inflation.
- The kwacha depreciated in Q1 against the dollar due to a strong dollar, low copper prices, and domestic issues.
- Preliminary estimates show Zambia's economy grew 1.25% in Q1, lower than previous quarters due to contractions in mining output.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. Some key points:
- Expectations of economic recovery were dashed as the naira fell sharply, growth estimates declined, and power output remained low.
- Inflation jumped to 16.5% while business activity showed only marginal signs of recovery. Oil prices declined further, hurting government revenues.
- Global factors like slower growth in China, lower commodity prices, and cautious monetary policies in developed countries pose risks for Nigeria's economy.
- Domestic challenges include high inflation, fuel scarcity and price increases, and weak manufacturing activity, though some indicators showed slight improvements. The outlook remains uncertain.
Us econ ppt lynchburg 3-4-2011 final_dr.shealynchburg
The U.S. economy is recovering slowly with decent GDP growth and a slowly improving labor market, though unemployment remains high. Inflation remains low despite rising commodity prices. Recent forecasts point to accelerating growth in 2011 of around 3.5%. Some data signals like consumer confidence are encouraging, but other data like durable goods orders have been weak. Housing prices continue to decline due to excess supply, which could dampen consumer spending. Upside risks include normal cyclical dynamics boosting growth, while downside risks include higher oil prices and fiscal austerity measures dampening growth.
The OECD chief economist assessed the economic risks of the coronavirus outbreak. If contained to China, it could reduce world GDP by 0.5% in 2020, but a wider spread could lower GDP by 1.5% as demand falls in Asia, Europe, and North America. Government responses like increased health spending, tax relief for affected industries, and coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus across countries could help offset economic losses.
The document summarizes recent economic data from the UK. It notes that GDP growth slowed to 0.5% in the third quarter of 2015, with services growth remaining strong but manufacturing and construction declining. Unemployment has fallen to 5.4%, its lowest since 2008, with reductions across age groups and durations of unemployment. Average weekly earnings grew 2.8% in the latest period, with private sector pay growth stronger than public sector. Real earnings growth has picked up from post-downturn lows but remains below pre-2008 levels in most industries.
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in October 2015. It discusses key economic indicators such as GDP growth estimates of 2.5% for Q3, a rise in power supply to 4,500MW, stable government revenue of N442.6 billion, inflation increasing to 9.3%, and lower interest rates following a reduction in the cash reserve ratio. It also summarizes global and commodity market conditions, and their impact on the domestic economy. Overall, the outlook expects inflation to rise further to 9.4% in September and interest rates to remain below 10%.
The document summarizes the impacts of COVID-19 on the Bangladeshi economy. It discusses how the pandemic has disrupted livelihoods and reduced incomes. Key sectors like textiles have been affected. The government announced stimulus packages including loans, but the economy is still expected to decline by 3-4%. Challenges in implementing social distancing due to population density are also noted. International assistance is needed to help Bangladesh minimize the pandemic's impacts.
The document provides an economic bulletin with the following key points:
1) Global economic growth remained moderate in the third quarter of 2015, with divergence across major economies. US and UK growth appeared to slow, while Japan's growth remained subdued. China's growth showed a gradual slowdown.
2) Euro area financial markets showed some volatility, with bond yields declining and stock prices rising slightly. The euro remained stable.
3) Euro area economic recovery is proceeding, supported by private consumption. GDP rose 0.4% in Q2 2015 and a similar pace is expected in Q3. Recovery is expected to continue but dampened by weak foreign demand.
Effects Of Terrorism On Pakistan EconomyFJeconomist
Terrorism has negatively impacted Pakistan's economy in several ways over the past two decades. It has caused a rise in security spending and production costs, a fall in business confidence and foreign investment, and hampered GDP growth. Specific effects included increased government spending on non-productive security, a decline in exports and tourism, and a rising burden on society through greater disability and health spending. Macroeconomic indicators suffered and maintaining economic growth became increasingly difficult as resources were diverted to counterterrorism efforts.
Political risk outlook investment pack - March 2015Damian Karmelich
A leadership crisis in Australia, rising food prices across Asia and Russia’s search for security are all shaping markets. The Political Monitor Political Risk Outlook Investment Pack examines these issues and more, including:
Australian Political Risk Index - examines how recent political events have unnerved investors
- State in focus: a change of government in the resource rich state of Queensland
- The impact of rising food prices in Asia
- Countries in focus: Indonesia, Philippines and Viet Nam
- Global outlook - how events in the EU and Russia are shaping markets.
Political risk outlook investment pack - March 2014 - slideshareDamian Karmelich
The Political Monitor monthly political risk outlook pack examines key political trends and events likely to shape markets in the month ahead. It includes political risk scores, indices and analysis of the interplay between politics & markets.
Political risk outlook investment pack - August 2014Damian Karmelich
The Political Monitor August political risk outlook investment pack includes the Australian Political Risk Index, political risk spreads, country risk analysis for China, India and Indonesia, an examination of geo-political events on oil prices and a review of political risk across Africa.
Food inflation occurs when the prices of food items consistently rise over a period of time rather than seasonally or suddenly. In Pakistan, food inflation has fluctuated over the past few decades from as low as 1.68% in 1999-2000 to as high as 26.61% in 2008-2009. High food inflation significantly impacts poorer segments of the population where food constitutes a larger portion of expenses. Common causes of food inflation in Pakistan include a lack of agricultural infrastructure, volatile weather conditions, increases in global food and oil prices, black market activities, and shortages in supply. Potential solutions involve cracking down on hoarding and black markets, allowing greater private sector imports, improving storage facilities, and releasing buffer stocks in a timely
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
1) Global growth is expected to be 2.5% in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016, which is weak for a recovery period and low over a prolonged period.
2) Unfavorable economic fundamentals such as low productivity growth, aging populations, high debt levels, and slowing world trade contribute to weak global growth prospects.
3) Risks to the global outlook include adverse market reactions to anticipated Federal Reserve rate hikes and a sharper slowdown in China that could negatively impact other emerging markets.
2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)PublicFinanceTV
The document analyzes the economic outlook for 2014 and beyond. It finds that while the US economic recovery will continue in 2014, growth will remain below historical averages. Unemployment remains elevated due to structural factors. Consumer spending and business investment will slowly increase in 2014, supporting moderate GDP growth. Federal fiscal policy uncertainty poses a headwind. Overall, the recovery is ongoing but uneven across states, industries, and demographic groups.
SCB EIC revised down the Thai economic growth outlook in 2023 to 3.1% (from 3.9%) due mainly to much lower-than-expected outturn in Q2 and continued export contraction. Still, there remains impetus from private consumption and tourism sector. Foreign tourist arrivals experience a buoyant recovery and will approach 30 million people as projected this year, particularly the Middle East visitors that could be Thailand’s new potential target. As a result, the service sector recorded a steady rebound and helped reduce fragility in the labor market. In 2024, we expect that Thailand’s economy will accelerate to 3.5% with an upbeat recovery in foreign tourists around 37.7 million. Also, private investment is expected to grow in line with the better trend of investment greenlights from Thailand's Board of Investment (BOI). Also, Thai exports will regain momentum and provide thrust to overall growth in 2024.
Headline inflation is expected to escalate since Q4, but should remain anchored within the target range at 1.7% in 2023 and 2% in 2024—driven by higher energy and food prices. Meanwhile, the core inflation will likely stay elevated at 1.4% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024. SCB EIC anticipates another policy rate hike in the September meeting to the terminal point of 2.5% since the Thai economy will continue to regain its potential. Inflation will encounter upside risks from higher energy and food prices. The real interest rate should therefore return to a positive trajectory, that will support Thailand’s economic and financial stability in the long term by preempting the buildup of financial imbalances during a prolonged period of low interest rates.
The global economic rebound will be increasingly unsynchronized. Based on our forecast, the global economic growth should ascend to 2.4% in 2023 and stand steady throughout 2024. The global economy has been outperforming the consensus. Yet, we observed a persistent fragility that could continue into 2024—as a result of rampant inflation, policy rate hikes among major economies, and depleting excess savings. Furthermore, China’s economy will face a slowdown over the short and long term as structural challenges could hamper the growth outlook.
Advanced economies' rate hike cycle will come to an end within this year. Rising commodity prices could drive global headline inflation around the year-end. Likewise, core inflation in major economies should stay elevated as tight labor markets continue to support labor income. Against such backdrops, the US Federal Reserve tended to keep its current policy rate at 5.25-5.5% until Q2/2024. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England will slightly raise policy rates in the rest of 2023 and maintain their restrictive rates for the time being. Monetary easing is expected in 2H/2024 after core inflation subsides. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China has stayed the course on monetary easing to bolster a flagging economy. In contrast, the Bank of Japan will likely scale
The document provides an overview of various financial markets and economic indicators from an investment advisory perspective. It discusses recent performance and outlook for domestic and global equities, bonds, commodities, real estate and other asset classes. Some key points are: domestic inflation slowed while wholesale prices contracted, Indian GDP growth was 7.3% for the year, concerns around a weak monsoon may impact inflation, global markets remain sensitive to developments in Europe and potential US rate hikes.
A presentation from the 13th Poverty Environment Partnership meeting held in Manila, Philippines, June 2008.
Download this presentation and more from the meeting here: http://www.povertyenvironment.net/pep13
This document discusses the impacts of rising global food prices in Asia. It finds that while domestic food price inflation in Asia is not as severe as global inflation, rising prices still threaten growth and poverty reduction. Food price increases are driven by factors like increased demand from China and India, biofuel mandates, commodity speculation, and high oil prices. Countries responded with both export restrictions and increased imports, exacerbating the crisis. Higher prices negatively impact the poorest consumers, though rural agricultural producers may benefit. Overall, food inflation poses challenges but responses can help mitigate threats to the poor.
This document summarizes an economic conference held by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis on October 15, 2014. It discusses current economic conditions in the US and Arkansas. The US economy is seeing steady job growth and falling inflation and unemployment. However, a stronger dollar and weaker global growth could impact exports. In Arkansas, farm income decreased while farmland values fell slightly. The latest survey suggests Arkansas farmland prices may have peaked. Regional economic growth has exceeded the national average, though job growth in Arkansas has been half the national rate and incomes remain below average.
The APCO Geopolitical Risk Radar (AGRR) offers a timely snapshot of the global operating environment for businesses. It predicts how regional risks come together at a global level and offers a baseline from which to develop strategies to navigate, mitigate and grow through these risks.
The Australian economic growth continues to follow a steady growth path with the unemployment rate falling to its lowest point since July 2013. Key points affecting the Australian economy include:
• Negative rates overseas encouraging a new wave of inbound capital
• China’s transition to a consumption economy emerges in domestic economic activity with:
• Hotel investment volumes underpinned by a severe supply shortage, increased by 157% since 2013
• National growth results exceed expectations with service led growth crystallising
• Australian major commodity export prices bounce back
Global and-spanish economic perspectives Q3 2021 Quarterly Report December 2021JoseLuisSanz9
Global economic situation
The world economys recovery continues although its sustainability isn tassured in a context of pandemic outbreaks and uncertainty about its future evolution, disruptions in supply chains and inflationary pressures on raw materials and energy. The differing vaccination rates and the support policies applied in each country to lessen the pandemic s impact have deepened divergences in growth, mainly between advanced economies and low income countries.
A positive performance is expected in all world regions in 2021, although growth in sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East will be lower than in the rest of the regions. Inadequate access to vaccines and regional political instability are two of the causes of this worse performance.
Inflation in Nigeria increased to 9.5% in October, up from 9.4% in September. Imported inflation and higher food prices such as rice contributed to rising consumer prices. Urban inflation in Lagos also rose in October, driven by increases in the prices of rice, tomatoes, and onions. Inflation is increasing across Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with double-digit inflation seen in Angola and a sharp rise in Kenya. Nigerian monetary authorities will discuss interest rates at their upcoming November meeting to address high inflation and steer the country toward growth in 2016.
The document provides an economic forecast for Estonia from 2022-2025. It finds that high inflation and energy prices are hurting the global and European economies. Inflation in Estonia is projected to remain high in 2023 before slowly falling in 2024-2025. Interest rates are also expected to continue rising to curb inflation. Fiscal policy measures risk exacerbating inflation. Overall the Estonian economy is forecast to recover by late 2023 but high costs and uncertainty will continue weighing on growth.
The document summarizes the OECD Economic Outlook report. It finds that:
1) The global economy is growing slowly, with world GDP growth below historical averages and weak trade growth.
2) Growth projections vary across countries, with the US expected to accelerate but remain below trend, while China and India are projected to experience slower growth than in recent years.
3) Risks to the outlook are on the downside and include high debt levels in advanced economies and potential slowing of potential growth rates.
Similar to Political risk outlook investment pack - April 2014 (20)
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
2. OUTLINE!
This presentation provides a summary of Political Monitor’s monthly Political risk outlook
– investment pack. It includes Political Monitor’s proprietary risk scores and indices and
domestic, regional and global analysis of the commercial implications of political trends
and events. The full pack is released to subscribers at the beginning of each month.!
!
To find out more about subscribing to the full monthly pack please contact:!
!
Damian Karmelich ! ! ! ! ! ! !Steve Cusworth!
Partner – Sydney ! ! ! ! ! ! !Partner - Melbourne!
p. 0407 772 548 ! ! ! ! ! ! !p. 0417 178 697!
e. karmelichd@politicalmonitor.com.au ! ! !e. cusworths@politicalmonitor.com.au !
3. CONTENTS!
• Australian Political Risk Outlook …………………………………………………………… p. 4!
• Asia Political Risk Outlook ………………………………………………………………….. p. 8!
• Food prices add to social tensions …… ……..….………..… ……...….……... p. 9!
• Elections in key markets …………...…………..…………………..…….……… p. 11!
• Global issues ………………………………..………………………….….……………...…. p. 13!
• Latest reports ……………………………………………………….……………...………… p. 18!
• Appendix 1 – Australian Political Risk Index methodology…….……………...…………. p. 21!
• Appendix 2 - Economic & investment impact of political and social instability ……….. p. 22!
!
! ! ! !!
Political risk outlook! 3!
5. AUSTRALIAN POLITICAL RISK INDEX – political uncertainty
hit a 6 month high in March!
Political risk outlook! 5!
• Events
in
Crimea
and
the
Abbo:
Government’s
failure
to
repeal
the
carbon
and
mining
taxes
pushed
the
index
to
its
highest
level
in
6
months.
While
uncertainty
eased
in
the
la:er
half
of
March
the
index
remained
vola%le.
• While
the
Government’s
failure
to
repeal
the
two
taxes
was
expected
it
did
focus
investor
minds
on
the
reality
that
a
double-‐dissolu%on
elec%on
in
the
second
half
of
the
year
is
a
real
possibility.
• The
outcome
of
the
Senate
elec%on
re-‐run
in
Western
Australia
will
provide
cri%cal
insight
into
the
likelihood
of
a
new
Senate
in
July
repealing
the
taxes
or
pushing
the
country
toward
an
early
poll.
Any
elec%on
outcome
other
than
a
strong
showing
by
the
Government
will
increase
uncertainty
about
the
path
forward.
• Ongoing
tensions
in
Ukraine
are
likely
to
keep
investors
on
edge
as
the
crisis
begins
to
impact
prices
for
natural
gas,
gasoline
and
wheat
futures.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Poli%cal
Uncertainty
Score
Poli%cal
Risk
Index
6. AUSTRALIAN POLITICAL RISK INDEX & ASX200 – political &
policy uncertainty continues to weigh on key indices!
Political risk outlook! 6!
4800
4900
5000
5100
5200
5300
5400
5500
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
ASX
200
Poli%cal
Uncertainty
Score
Poli%cal
Risk
Index
vs.
ASX
200
PRI
ASX
200
7. STATE GOVERNMENT RISK INDEX – state governments
present elevated risk for investors!
Political risk outlook! 7!
• There
is
elevated
risk
across
a
number
of
states,
influenced
by
recent
elec%ons,
minority
government
and
con%nuing
budget
challenges.
However,
the
trend
is
improving
in
all
states
except
Victoria.
• New
South
Wales
edges
out
Western
Australia
as
the
state
with
the
lowest
level
of
poli%cal
risk
due
to
an
improving
budget
posi%on,
a
stable
Cabinet
and
a
large
parliamentary
majority.
• The
ongoing
instability
of
the
minority
Victorian
Government
is
an
obvious
factor
in
its
elevated
risk
levels
and
despite
leading
the
index
with
the
lowest
rela%ve
budget
risk,
Victoria
has
the
second
highest
overall
risk
score.
• The
outcome
of
the
South
Australian
elec%on
exposes
the
state
to
an
extended
period
of
elevated
risk
with
minority
government
and
budget
challenges
producing
significant
headwinds.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Total
Risk
Score
Budget
Risk
Policy
Risk
Stability
Risk
Reputa%onal
Risk
State
Poli%cal
Risk
Index
March
2014
NSW
Vic
Qld
WA
SA
Tas
9. ASIA
POLITICAL
RISK
INDEX
–
rising
food
prices
are
adding
to
tensions
already
evident
across
the
region
Political risk outlook! 9!
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Consumer
prices
–
Food
indices
(Food
&
Agriculture
Organisa%on,
United
Na%ons)
World
Asia
South
Eastern
Asia
East
Asia
• Household
budgets
across
Asia
are
coming
under
increasing
pressure
with
global
food
prices
experiencing
their
largest
increase
since
mid-‐2012.
• The
United
Na2ons
Food
and
Agriculture
Organiza2on’s
monthly
food-‐price
index
rose
5.2
points
in
February
as
drought
in
a
number
of
countries
pushed
up
the
price
of
soe
commodi%es
such
as
wheat
and
beef.
• Emerging
markets
generally
suffer
more
from
rising
food
prices
as
a
larger
propor%on
of
household
budgets
are
commi:ed
to
foodstuffs.
• Rising
food
prices
were
a
cri%cal
factor
in
the
Arab
spring
uprisings,
which
brought
thousands
of
residents
to
the
streets
angry
at
the
failure
of
largely
corrupt
governments
to
respond
quickly
to
the
stress
many
households
were
feeling.
10. ASIA
POLITICAL
RISK
INDEX
–
price
rises
are
greatest
in
countries
already
rated
a
VERY
HIGH
risk
on
the
Asia
Poli2cal
Risk
Index
Political risk outlook! 10!
Indonesia
–
rising
prices
are
increasing
the
pressure
on
household
budgets
in
a
country
where
nearly
45%
of
income
is
dedicated
to
foodstuffs
and
food
security
is
compara%vely
low.
Food
and
fuel
prices
will
be
core
issues
in
forthcoming
parliamentary
&
presiden%al
elec%ons.
China
–
with
around
one
third
of
household
budgets
dedicated
to
foodstuffs
rising
prices
are
always
a
cause
for
concern
for
the
Government
as
they
keep
a
close
eye
on
community
disquiet
about
extravagance
among
the
country’s
elite.
Thailand
–
while
rated
a
rela%vely
low
risk
the
validity
of
Thailand’s
rice
subsidy
program
and
rising
food
prices
are
combining
to
increase
the
pressure
on
Prime
Minister
Yingluck
Shinawatra.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Consumer
prices
–
Food
indices
(Food
&
Agriculture
Organisa%on,
United
Na%ons)
China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
11. ELECTIONS
IN
KEY
MARKETS
INDONESIA:
HIGH
RISK
• Jakarta
Governor
Joko
Widodo
has
emerged
as
firm
favourite
for
the
presidency.
However,
Indonesia’s
geographic,
ethnic
and
religious
diversity
means
he
will
likely
rely
on
a
parliamentary
coali%on
to
govern
making
it
harder
to
push
through
economic
reform.
• With
youth
unemployment
approaching
30%
in
a
country
where
over
25%
of
the
popula%on
is
under
the
age
of
30
there
remains
considerable
scope
for
social
discontent.
This
is
fer%le
ground
for
religious
extremists
in
par%cular.
• Rising
prices
are
also
a
cause
for
social
disquiet
with
the
price
of
Brent
crude
rising
over
20%
in
local
currency
terms
pumng
pressure
on
fuel
prices.
This
has
been
further
exacerbated
by
an
end
to
government
fuel
subsidies.
• The
elec%on
has
coincided
with
a
rise
in
economic
na%onalism
that
may
con%nue
aeer
the
parliamentary
and
presiden%al
elec%ons,
par%cularly
if
Widodo
feels
such
policies
are
necessary
to
build
an
effec%ve
parliamentary
majority.
Political risk outlook! 11!
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Percentage
increase
in
ICE
Brent
crude
(local
currency)
1
July
2013
-‐
24
February
2014
%
increase
in
local
currency
%
ICE
Brent
Crude
Increase
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
12000
12500
1/04/2013
1/05/2013
1/06/2013
1/07/2013
1/08/2013
1/09/2013
1/10/2013
1/11/2013
1/12/2013
1/01/2014
1/02/2014
1/03/2014
1/04/2014
USD
:
Indonesian
Rupiah
12. ELECTIONS
IN
KEY
MARKETS
–
INDIA:
HIGH
RISK
• The
outlook
for
the
Indian
elec%on
is
uncertain.
While
the
BJP
are
polling
strongly
local
state
based
par%es
are
also
faring
well
and
are
likely
to
influence
the
make-‐up
of
any
eventual
government.
• Key
themes
remain
corrup%on,
employment
and
investment.
However,
the
level
of
government
support
for
farmers
also
remains
a
central
issue
and
this
introduces
a
major
impediment
to
significant
structural
reform.
• The
risk
of
social
discord
is
ever
present
with
around
30%
of
the
popula%on
living
below
the
poverty
line
and
tens
of
millions
of
young
people
unemployed.
• Food
prices
are
also
a
concern
with
around
35%
of
household
budgets
dedicated
to
foodstuffs.
• While
investors
are
hopeful
of
a
new
government
that
will
pursue
reform
they
should
be
mindful
of
the
likely
challenges
for
either
of
the
major
par%es
in
building
a
governing
coali%on
and
the
implica%ons
for
reform
in
the
second
half
of
2014.
Political risk outlook! 12!
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
USD
:
Indian
rupee
14. CRISIS
IN
THE
UKRAINE
–
MARKETS
STARTING
TO
PAY
ATTENTION
• Events
in
Ukraine
are
beginning
to
have
ramifica%ons
beyond
Eastern
Europe
with
prices
for
hard
and
soe
commodi%es
rising
off
the
the
back
of
growing
uncertainty.
• Natural
gas
prices
have
been
vola%le
rising
as
much
as
6%
in
Q1
2014
before
easing
at
the
end
of
the
quarter
while
gasoline
prices
increased
over
8%
during
the
same
period.
Wheat
futures
rose
over
16.5%
in
a
poten%al
boon
for
Australian
farmers.
Russia
&
Ukraine
combined
contribute
around
17%
of
global
wheat
exports.
• Tensions
are
likely
to
remain
vola%le
in
the
region
with
Russia
set
to
con%nue
meddling
in
the
east
of
Ukraine
to
disrupt
efforts
by
Kiev
to
form
a
strong
central
government.
• Sanc%ons
are
unlikely
to
dissuade
Vladimir
Pu%n
from
further
ac%on.
He
is
well
aware
of
Europe’s
dependence
on
Russia
for
energy
and
an
end
to
the
US$200bn
–
US$300bn
in
gas
subsidies
to
Ukraine
will
more
than
offset
the
cost
of
sanc%ons.!
! ! ! !!
!
Political risk outlook! 14!
550
600
650
700
750
2/01/2014
2/02/2014
2/03/2014
CBOT
Wheat
Futures
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
2/01/2014
2/02/2014
2/03/2014
NYMEX
Natural
Gas
Futures
15. THE
FUTURE
OF
THE
EU
–
ELECTIONS
APPROACH
• EU
elec%ons
in
May
will
determine
the
extent
to
which
Europe’s
leader
can
push
on
with
a
program
of
deeper
integra%on
including
a
banking
union
&
public
debt
guarantees.
• A
coali%on
of
right-‐wing
par%es
across
the
con%nent
are
campaigning
on
a
promise
to
join
forces
in
Brussels
and
wind
back
the
European
project.
The
popularity
of
these
par%es
rest
on
sluggish
growth
in
countries
like
France,
concerns
about
migra%on
within
the
EU
&
hos%lity
to
austerity.
• The
early
signs
are
good
for
this
coali%on:
the
Front-‐
Na%onal
(FN)
in
France
gained
control
of
11
local
councils
in
recent
elec%ons
(up
from
its
record
high
of
4);
Freedom
Party
of
Austria
won
over
20%
of
the
vote
in
2013
elec%ons;
Swiss
People’s
Party
won
26%
of
the
vote
in
2011;
and
polls
show
strong
support
for
the
UK
Independence
Party.
!
! Political risk outlook! 15!
0
50
100
150
200
250
1/01/08
1/05/08
1/09/08
1/01/09
1/05/09
1/09/09
1/01/10
1/05/10
1/09/10
1/01/11
1/05/11
1/09/11
1/01/12
1/05/12
1/09/12
1/01/13
1/05/13
1/09/13
Economic
Policy
Uncertainty
Index
-‐
Europe
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
French
share
of
global
GDP
based
on
PPP,
%
16. THE
FUTURE
OF
THE
EU
–
UNEMPLOYMENT
A
KEY
DRIVER
OF
SUPPORT
FOR
RIGHT
WING
PARTIES
Political risk outlook! 16!
European
unemployment
rates
–
Feb
2014
(seasonally
adjusted)
17. THE
FUTURE
OF
THE
EU
–
ELEVATED
LEVELS
OF
YOUTH
UNEMPLOYMENT
UNDERPIN
ANTI-‐EU
SUPPORT
Political risk outlook! 17!
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
EU
unemployment
-‐
total
pop.
versus
youth
Unemployment
-‐
total
popula%on
(%)
Unemployment
-‐
youth
(%)
18. LATEST
REPORTS
! ! !Australian
PoliEcal
Risk
Index
Weekly
updates
on
our
proprietary
index
tracking
poli%cal
and
policy
uncertainty
in
Australia.
State
Government
Risk
Index
Which Australian states present the greatest risk and offer the biggest !
! ! !opportunity for investors? Our State Government Risk Index provides a
! ! !comparative analysis.!
PoliEcal
risk,
ESG
&
markeEng
performance
Poli%cal
Monitor
examines
the
latest
data
on
the
link
between
ESG
and
market
performance. ! ! !!
Political risk outlook! 18!
19. Detailed analysis on these and other political risks confronting investors can be found at
www.politicalmonitor.com.au!
!
To find out more contact:!
!
Damian
Karmelich
Steve
Cusworth
Partner
-‐
Sydney
Partner
-‐
Melbourne
p.
0407
772
548
p.
0417
178
697
e.
karmelichd@poli%calmonitor.com,au
e.
cusworths@poli%calmonitor.com.au!
!
About Political Monitor!
Political Monitor is a political risk research and advisory firm. Our analysis provides
insight into the implications of political risk for commercial valuations, asset selection,
investment decisions, strategic planning and operational decisions. !
!
Political risk outlook! 19!
21. APPENDIX
1
-‐
AUSTRALIAN
POLITICAL
RISK
INDEX
METHODOLOGY
The
Poli%cal
Monitor
Australian
Poli2cal
Risk
Index
is
a
dynamic
index
that
tracks
the
level
of
policy
uncertainty
in
Australia
relying
on
a
number
of
variables
including
market
vola%lity
and
the
dispersion
of
private
sector
economic
forecasts.
The
index
is
refreshed
daily
providing
an
up
to
date
gauge
of
poli%cal
and
policy
uncertainty.
!
!
!
!
!
Political risk outlook! 21!
22. APPENDIX
2
-‐
ECONOMIC
&
INVESTMENT
IMPACT
OF
POLITICAL
&
SOCIAL
INSTABILITY
–
DOES
IT
MATTER?
• Poli%cal
risk
is
the
second
ranked
concern
for
publicly
traded
companies
…
"Looking
ahead,
investors
con%nue
to
be
wary
about
the
effects
of
systemic
risk,
poli%cs
and
regula%on
on
the
world's
markets
and
how
they'll
perform.”
(BNY
Mellon,
Global
Trends
in
Investor
Rela2ons,
2014).
• In
general
poli%cal
instability
results
in:
• (a)
lower
economic
growth
(Aisen
&
Veiga,
2013)
• (b)
reduced
private
sector
investment
(Alesina
&
PeroQ)
• (c)
increased
infla%on
levels
&
vola%lity
(Aisen
&
Veiga,
2008).
• The
economic
effects
of
poli%cal
&
social
instability
remain
for
an
observable
period
of
2
–
3
years.
The
key
determinant
of
whether
the
effect
of
instability
ceases
at
that
point
is
the
speed
with
which
countries
implement
reforms
&
improve
governance
(Bernal-‐Verdugo,
Furceri
&
Guillaume,
IMF
Working
Paper,
2013).
• An
increase
in
economic
policy
uncertainty
foreshadows
a
decline
in
economic
growth
and
employment
in
the
following
months
(Baker,
Bloom
&
Davis,
EPU).
• The
Interna%onal
Monetary
Fund
(IMF)
es%mates
the
economic
loss
to
Libya,
Egypt,
Tunisia,
Syria,
Yemen,
and
Bahrain
in
2011
at
USD$20.56
billion
as
a
result
of
poli%cal
and
social
conflict.
!
! ! ! !! Political risk outlook! 22!