Political risk outlook investment pack - August 2014Damian Karmelich
The Political Monitor August political risk outlook investment pack includes the Australian Political Risk Index, political risk spreads, country risk analysis for China, India and Indonesia, an examination of geo-political events on oil prices and a review of political risk across Africa.
East Africa's Information Communication Technology OutlookKonstantin Makarov
This document provides an economic outlook for East Africa, focusing on key ICT trends. It finds that foreign direct investment is increasing in East Africa, particularly in consumer-facing sectors rather than extractives. ICT is emerging as a major growth catalyst for Africa's economies as cellphone innovations help link technology and commerce. The document then analyzes the economic and ICT outlooks of several East African countries - Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Ethiopia - finding both opportunities and challenges for digital economic growth across the region.
Foreign Aid and Fiscal Behaviour in Nigeria: An Impact Assessment of Deregula...iosrjce
The study examined the influence of deregulation on the relationship between foreign aid and fiscal
behaviour in Nigeria. The equation which described foreign aid as function of important fiscal variables and
other macroeconomic variables is derived from the famous two-gap model. Chow test is used to examine if there
is any structural changes since the adoption of deregulation that has significantly affected the relationship
between foreign aid and fiscal behaviour. The result shows that deregulation has positively and significantly
affected the impact of fiscal behaviour in Nigeria on foreign aid accessibility. But the effect has been short-lived
recently owing to the recent drastic fall in foreign aid available to Nigeria despite the sustained increase in both
government revenue and expenditure. It is recommended that assessment of other shocks that can affect the
fiscal behaviour in Nigeria should be conducted with a view to getting the reason why deregulation fails to
maintain positive relationship that exists between fiscal behaviour and foreign aid in Nigeria.
We are pleased to release the October 2017 Africa Market Update covering the economies of Ethiopia (Q2 and Q3, 2017 Review), Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. In light of the ongoing electoral cycle in sub-Saharan Africa, we have included a note highlighting major upsets in the elections of Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Angola and Tanzania.
Executive summary of the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and International Labour Organization (ILO) research: “Economic Crises, International Tourism Decline and its Impact on the Poor: An Analysis of the Effects of the Global Economic Crisis on the Employment of Poor and Vulnerable Groups in the Tourism Sector,” conducted as part of UN Global Pulse’s Rapid Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Fund (RIVAF). For more information: http://www.unglobalpulse.org/projects/rapid-impact-and-vulnerability-analysis-fund-rivaf
South Africa IFDI (Foreign Direct Investment Inflows) May 2013Dr Lendy Spires
Trends and developments Country-level developments Since the 1960s and through the early 1990s, South Africa had been an increasingly isolated economy due to sanctions imposed against its apartheid policies. Following the end of apartheid in 1994 and the country’s first democratic elections, expectations were that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into South Africa would grow strongly.
This view gained traction based on the notion that South Africa was seen as the gateway to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with its potential consumer base of some 900 million people. Having a financial system more aligned to those in developed economies than to those in emerging markets, improved macro-economic fundamentals in several respects and a relatively extensive infrastructure also added to an expectation that South Africa’s economic reach could stretch beyond SSA, giving further impetus to inflows of FDI. South Africa’s attractiveness as a destination for FDI has, however, been mixed.
This is in part due to its prevailing “dual economy” which is comparable in several respects to an industrialized economy but in several others resembles a developing one. South Africa has a sound regulatory and legislative environment for investment, a sophisticated business sector and globally competitive financial markets, but it also has pervasive poverty, high income inequality, challenges in health care and education, and inefficient labor markets.
An inadequately educated workforce, restrictive labor regulations, poor labor-employer relations and low levels of productivity relative to the cost of labor constitute some of the most problematic challenges facing business in South Africa. Furthermore, South Africa, with a gross national savings rate of 16.5% of GDP, ranks 87th (out of 144 countries) in terms of the savings rate and compares poorly with its companion economies in the BRICS group. In Africa, fifteen countries have a higher gross national savings rate than South Africa.
IFDI is thus much needed to offset low domestic investment and to finance technological transformation. These differing conditions and the policy The existence of a “dual economy and society” in South Africa was first mooted by President Thabo Mbeki during his 2003 State of the Nation address, available at: http://www.info.gov.za/speeches/2003/03021412521001.htm. South Africa’s auditing and reporting standards and the regulation of its securities exchange rank number one in the world and its banks have been ranked second in terms of their soundness. See World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012 (Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2011). Half of South Africans live on less than R500 (approximately $60) per month.
The COVID-19 pandemic has given the biggest blow to the world economy after the great depression
1930s.Around 60% of the world population is either under severe or partial lockdown without having medical
solution to the coronavirus and affected the industrial sector severely.The impact is severe on
trade,manufacturing and MSMEs.Manufacturing sector may shrink from 5.5%to 20%,exports from 13.7% to
20.8%,imports from 17.3% to25%and MSMEs net value added (NVA) from 2.1%to5.7% in 2020
This document provides an overview of strategic management and recommendations for Pakistani industries in response to globalization challenges. It discusses the global and Pakistani economies, history and causes of globalization, positive and negative effects of globalization, and challenges and opportunities for Pakistan. Specific industries discussed include agriculture, textiles, leather, sports goods, and energy. The document recommends strategies for Pakistani industries to improve competitiveness, promote value-added exports, diversify markets, and develop human and technological capabilities to better position Pakistan in the globalized world.
Political risk outlook investment pack - August 2014Damian Karmelich
The Political Monitor August political risk outlook investment pack includes the Australian Political Risk Index, political risk spreads, country risk analysis for China, India and Indonesia, an examination of geo-political events on oil prices and a review of political risk across Africa.
East Africa's Information Communication Technology OutlookKonstantin Makarov
This document provides an economic outlook for East Africa, focusing on key ICT trends. It finds that foreign direct investment is increasing in East Africa, particularly in consumer-facing sectors rather than extractives. ICT is emerging as a major growth catalyst for Africa's economies as cellphone innovations help link technology and commerce. The document then analyzes the economic and ICT outlooks of several East African countries - Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Ethiopia - finding both opportunities and challenges for digital economic growth across the region.
Foreign Aid and Fiscal Behaviour in Nigeria: An Impact Assessment of Deregula...iosrjce
The study examined the influence of deregulation on the relationship between foreign aid and fiscal
behaviour in Nigeria. The equation which described foreign aid as function of important fiscal variables and
other macroeconomic variables is derived from the famous two-gap model. Chow test is used to examine if there
is any structural changes since the adoption of deregulation that has significantly affected the relationship
between foreign aid and fiscal behaviour. The result shows that deregulation has positively and significantly
affected the impact of fiscal behaviour in Nigeria on foreign aid accessibility. But the effect has been short-lived
recently owing to the recent drastic fall in foreign aid available to Nigeria despite the sustained increase in both
government revenue and expenditure. It is recommended that assessment of other shocks that can affect the
fiscal behaviour in Nigeria should be conducted with a view to getting the reason why deregulation fails to
maintain positive relationship that exists between fiscal behaviour and foreign aid in Nigeria.
We are pleased to release the October 2017 Africa Market Update covering the economies of Ethiopia (Q2 and Q3, 2017 Review), Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda and Rwanda. In light of the ongoing electoral cycle in sub-Saharan Africa, we have included a note highlighting major upsets in the elections of Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana, Angola and Tanzania.
Executive summary of the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and International Labour Organization (ILO) research: “Economic Crises, International Tourism Decline and its Impact on the Poor: An Analysis of the Effects of the Global Economic Crisis on the Employment of Poor and Vulnerable Groups in the Tourism Sector,” conducted as part of UN Global Pulse’s Rapid Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Fund (RIVAF). For more information: http://www.unglobalpulse.org/projects/rapid-impact-and-vulnerability-analysis-fund-rivaf
South Africa IFDI (Foreign Direct Investment Inflows) May 2013Dr Lendy Spires
Trends and developments Country-level developments Since the 1960s and through the early 1990s, South Africa had been an increasingly isolated economy due to sanctions imposed against its apartheid policies. Following the end of apartheid in 1994 and the country’s first democratic elections, expectations were that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into South Africa would grow strongly.
This view gained traction based on the notion that South Africa was seen as the gateway to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with its potential consumer base of some 900 million people. Having a financial system more aligned to those in developed economies than to those in emerging markets, improved macro-economic fundamentals in several respects and a relatively extensive infrastructure also added to an expectation that South Africa’s economic reach could stretch beyond SSA, giving further impetus to inflows of FDI. South Africa’s attractiveness as a destination for FDI has, however, been mixed.
This is in part due to its prevailing “dual economy” which is comparable in several respects to an industrialized economy but in several others resembles a developing one. South Africa has a sound regulatory and legislative environment for investment, a sophisticated business sector and globally competitive financial markets, but it also has pervasive poverty, high income inequality, challenges in health care and education, and inefficient labor markets.
An inadequately educated workforce, restrictive labor regulations, poor labor-employer relations and low levels of productivity relative to the cost of labor constitute some of the most problematic challenges facing business in South Africa. Furthermore, South Africa, with a gross national savings rate of 16.5% of GDP, ranks 87th (out of 144 countries) in terms of the savings rate and compares poorly with its companion economies in the BRICS group. In Africa, fifteen countries have a higher gross national savings rate than South Africa.
IFDI is thus much needed to offset low domestic investment and to finance technological transformation. These differing conditions and the policy The existence of a “dual economy and society” in South Africa was first mooted by President Thabo Mbeki during his 2003 State of the Nation address, available at: http://www.info.gov.za/speeches/2003/03021412521001.htm. South Africa’s auditing and reporting standards and the regulation of its securities exchange rank number one in the world and its banks have been ranked second in terms of their soundness. See World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2011-2012 (Geneva: World Economic Forum, 2011). Half of South Africans live on less than R500 (approximately $60) per month.
The COVID-19 pandemic has given the biggest blow to the world economy after the great depression
1930s.Around 60% of the world population is either under severe or partial lockdown without having medical
solution to the coronavirus and affected the industrial sector severely.The impact is severe on
trade,manufacturing and MSMEs.Manufacturing sector may shrink from 5.5%to 20%,exports from 13.7% to
20.8%,imports from 17.3% to25%and MSMEs net value added (NVA) from 2.1%to5.7% in 2020
This document provides an overview of strategic management and recommendations for Pakistani industries in response to globalization challenges. It discusses the global and Pakistani economies, history and causes of globalization, positive and negative effects of globalization, and challenges and opportunities for Pakistan. Specific industries discussed include agriculture, textiles, leather, sports goods, and energy. The document recommends strategies for Pakistani industries to improve competitiveness, promote value-added exports, diversify markets, and develop human and technological capabilities to better position Pakistan in the globalized world.
The impacts of covid 19 outbreak on islamic finance in the oic countriesNur Hasan Murtiaji
This document provides an overview of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Islamic finance in OIC countries. It finds that most OIC economies have seen significant downgrades to their projected 2020 GDP growth. Turkey, Malaysia and Oman saw the largest drops. Sukuk issuance is expected to decline significantly in 2020 compared to 2019. OIC stock exchanges in Indonesia, Bahrain and Bangladesh performed relatively better than others between December 2019 and April 2020. The document aims to analyze the regional impacts and provide policy recommendations to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on Islamic finance.
The 2014 Global Peace Index showed a slight deterioration in global peace continuing a seven year trend. The economic impact of violence amounted to $9.8 trillion or 11.3% of global GDP, up from 2012. Europe remained the most peaceful region while South Asia improved the most. Internal conflicts increased while external conflicts decreased. Militarization decreased in some areas but increased in others such as the Middle East. Countries at highest risk of deteriorating peace included Zambia, Haiti, Argentina and Chad.
The document provides an economic update for Sri Lanka in April 2010. It summarizes that GDP growth was 3.5% in 2009, with services contributing most to the economy. Tourism arrivals increased 53.7% in March 2010. The BOI targets $5 billion in foreign investment over six years. Inflation decreased to 5.8% in April. Commercial bank lending to the private sector increased. It also discusses delays to Sri Lanka's 2010 budget and provides details on aid received from ADB and Japan. The Greece debt crisis is outlined, including a $145 billion bailout package agreed in May 2010.
OECD: The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic (Presentation)chaganomics
The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic prospects is severe Growth was weak but stabilising until the coronavirus Covid-19 hit. Restrictions on movement of people, goods and services, and containment measures such as factory closures have cut manufacturing and domestic demand sharply in China. The impact on the rest of the world through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower confidence is growing.
Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth...ijtsrd
The article aimed to investigate the relationship between inflation rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate, and economic growth of ten 10 emerging Sub Sahara African countries for the period 1998 to 2018. The random effects GLS regression estimator was employed to examine the equilibrium relationship between the variables. From the results, foreign direct investment had a significantly positive influence on GDP, while the inflation rate and interest rate trivially positively predicted GDP. Based on these findings, the study recommended that the government of emerging nations should put prudent measures to improve inflation, interest rate, and foreign direct investment within the economy for sound wellbeing. Ofori Charles | Shuibin Gu | Takyi Kwabena Nsiah | Eric Dwomoh "Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Sub Sahara Africa: Evidence from Emerging Nations" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-4 | Issue-6 , October 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd31105.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/international-economics/31105/inflation-rate-foreign-direct-investment-interest-rate-and-economic-growth-in-sub-sahara-africa-evidence-from-emerging-nations/ofori-charles
1) Indonesia has experienced strong economic growth in recent decades but faces short-term challenges including a slowing economy, widening budget deficit, and currency depreciation due to capital outflows.
2) Weakening commodity prices and slowing investment have reduced GDP growth to an estimated 5.5% in 2013 and 5.0% in the medium term, down from over 5.9% in 2008-2012.
3) A widening current account deficit, capital outflows, and currency depreciation have increased inflation and interest rates, constraining fiscal and monetary policy options.
"Tunisia's debt ratio increased sharply to almost 70% of GDP at the end of 2017 and higher than anticipated spending pressures and a heavy public sector wage bill limit its budget flexibility"
As covid 19 is on its path of disrupting and damaging world economies, the economy of India is also not unaffected. With this review paper it has been tried to find the various impacts of lockdown and covid 19 on tourism industry specifically in India. Impact of corona on Indian economy, tourism, and other parts of tourism will be analyzed with the help of content analysis. Medical tourism being hit at large will also be discussed apart from other sections of tourism in India. This paper will also attempt to gather the views on responsible tourism and will gather the suggested possible frameworks for government and bureaucrats to consider. Bringing equality, social justice and oneness are some of the important aspects associated with tourism cohesively and so an attempt has been made to draw attention towards them in the study. Abhimanyu Awasthi | Md. Soyav | Kumari Shiwani "Effect of Covid-19 on Tourism Industry" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-1 , December 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38070.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/business-administration/38070/effect-of-covid19-on-tourism-industry/abhimanyu-awasthi
The document analyzes the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on civil aviation in various regions. It provides scenario analyses estimating reductions in air traffic, passenger numbers, and airline revenues for mainland China, Hong Kong/Macao/Taiwan, South Korea, Italy, and Iran in the first quarter of 2020 compared to original plans. The preliminary estimates indicate reductions of 21.9-22.9 million passengers and $4.9-5.1 billion in airline revenues for mainland China, and 8.8-9.7 million passengers and $2.1-2.3 billion for Hong Kong/Macao/Taiwan. The analysis finds the outbreak has significantly reduced international air traffic and airline revenues.
The document discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the SAARC region. It provides background on SAARC, including its objectives to promote cooperation. It then describes the virus and its effects on different SAARC countries like disrupting tourism in Bhutan and Pakistan's economy. Overall impacts include collapsed demand, job losses, and slowed transportation. The crisis could result in the region's worst economic performance in decades. SAARC countries have pledged funds to combat the virus. Post-lockdown, opportunities like strengthened supply chains and challenges like political conflicts remain for SAARC.
Effects of Coronavirus Covid 19 on Tourist Industryijtsrd
The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of the coronavirus pandemic COVID 19 on the tourism industry and to find the tourism sector that will result from this pandemic. In the absence of a similar earlier research, this research is designed to be conducted in a courteous manner. The pilot research involved 103 travelers selected on a non probability basis. The findings suggest that the current COVID 19 pandemic is likely to affect travelers behavior in terms of human safety, economic costs, beliefs and attitudes. Finally, the main findings and practical implications of this research are described in terms of crisis management, and the direction of further study is presented based on the findings and limitations of this research. Nazarbek Kamudas | Ganzorig Myagmardorj "Effects of Coronavirus (Covid-19) on Tourist Industry" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-1 , December 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38033.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/business-ethics/38033/effects-of-coronavirus-covid19-on-tourist-industry/nazarbek-kamudas
The Copernican Revolution in the Study of Economic Growth John Ross
The document discusses a "Copernican revolution" in the study of economic growth, where new evidence and methods of analysis challenged existing theories. Specifically:
1. Long-term studies by Maddison showed capital investment, not total factor productivity (TFP) as theorized by Solow, was the main driver of economic growth.
2. Jorgenson developed methods accounting for quality changes in capital and labor, addressing flaws in Solow's growth accounting framework.
3. International organizations now recognize the importance of capital investment over TFP, abandoning the theory that TFP is the primary source of growth.
The document discusses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Sri Lanka and provides recommendations. It finds that the Sri Lankan economy is expected to grow at only 2.2% in 2020 due to the pandemic, down from previous estimates of 4.5-5%, and that a recession is possible globally. Key sectors like tourism, apparel and textiles, construction and retail will be severely impacted. It recommends that Sri Lanka establish an economic task force and provide tax incentives to export industries to attract investment and foreign exchange. The Sri Lankan government has announced an economic stimulus package including debt moratoriums and loans to support businesses during this difficult time.
Turkey's economy grew at an average annual rate of 4.4% from 2010 to 2020 but slowed to 0.3% in 2019 due to currency issues and US sanctions. Real GDP is forecast to increase by 3.9% per year from 2020 to 2025. Turkey had the 54th highest real GDP per capita in the world in 2020 at $10,054, lower than the Southern Europe regional average of $12,764. While the economy contracted in 2020 due to COVID-19, real GDP is expected to rebound in the coming years as the pandemic subsides.
Political risk and trade finance TXF conference - Nov 2014Damian Karmelich
Asia is at the nexus of global trade flows and is critical to the health of the global economy. The region accounts for more than 35 percent of the world’s trade and is forecast to contribute over 45 percent of global GDP in the coming decade. Yet its success is not assured. Among the many challenges are a series of political events and trends that threaten the region’s trade flows and the financial infrastructure that underpins them.
This presentation examines political risk in the Asia region drawing on Political Monitor’s Asia Political Risk Index. It includes, an analysis of key trends and events likely to influence the politics of the region, a review of regional hotspots, an in-depth examination of political risk in key markets, and a discussion of the implications of political risk for trade flows and finance.
The document summarizes the top 5 political risks for Australia in 2014 according to a political risk research firm. The risks are: 1) Senate obstructionism blocking the government's agenda, 2) the risk of a double dissolution election, 3) government instability in Victoria, 4) budget uncertainty until the 2014 budget is released, and 5) policy uncertainty due to multiple government reviews across various sectors. More analysis can be found on the firm's website.
International Financial Management Political RiskLesly Lising
Political risk refers to risks faced by multinational companies from political actions in foreign countries they invest in. Such risks include laws requiring a certain percentage of local hires, investment in social projects, currency restrictions, discriminatory practices like higher taxes/fees, and expropriation. Political risk must be assessed based on the stability of the host government, prevailing political views, likely views of future governments, efficiency of government processes, economic stability, and strength of legal system. Political risks are classified as firm-specific, country-specific like transfer risk of blocked funds, cultural/institutional risks, and global risks affecting companies globally like terrorism. Reducing political risk involves cooperating with host countries, making appropriate investments, acting responsibly
Relatório da Economist distribuído a grandes bancos diz que Brasil tem “alto ...diariodocentrodomundo
Um relatório anual da revista The Economist distribuído aos bancos coloca o Brasil numa posição de “alto risco operacional” devido à pandemia da Covid-19.
O documento alerta sobre o que pode acontecer na América Latina após o coronavírus: “Haverá ‘cicatrizes’ econômicas de investimentos e perdas de capital humano, e grandes mudanças setoriais, à medida que alguns setores avançam enquanto outros lutam.”
Essas crises às vésperas das eleições podem provocar uma onda de mudança. “Em um grande ano eleitoral para a América Latina, os riscos políticos já estão se tornando evidentes. O risco político é alto à medida que os eleitores protestam contra os governantes e pedem mudanças, dando espaço para que as propostas populistas prosperem”, diz a Economist.
Segundo a revista, um dos maiores fatores de risco para o continente é a baixa eficácia dos governos federais no combate ao vírus. No caso do Brasil, Bolsonaro é citado nominalmente e acusado de “enfraquecer as instituições democráticas”.
Political risk outlook investment pack - March 2014 - slideshareDamian Karmelich
The Political Monitor monthly political risk outlook pack examines key political trends and events likely to shape markets in the month ahead. It includes political risk scores, indices and analysis of the interplay between politics & markets.
One of NIGERIA’S greatest challenges is CORRUPTION – in Public and Private Institutions – which has greatly affected her development as well as how her Citizens are treated in other countries. This analysis takes an in-depth look TI CPI of Nigeria from 1998 till date.
The Dynamics of Building Political Support for Social Protection in Uganda: I...BASIS AMA Innovation Lab
A presentation by Charles Lwanga-Ntale from the 2009 BASIS Conference on "Escaping Poverty Traps: Connecting the Chronically Poor to the Economic Growth Agenda."
The impacts of covid 19 outbreak on islamic finance in the oic countriesNur Hasan Murtiaji
This document provides an overview of the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Islamic finance in OIC countries. It finds that most OIC economies have seen significant downgrades to their projected 2020 GDP growth. Turkey, Malaysia and Oman saw the largest drops. Sukuk issuance is expected to decline significantly in 2020 compared to 2019. OIC stock exchanges in Indonesia, Bahrain and Bangladesh performed relatively better than others between December 2019 and April 2020. The document aims to analyze the regional impacts and provide policy recommendations to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on Islamic finance.
The 2014 Global Peace Index showed a slight deterioration in global peace continuing a seven year trend. The economic impact of violence amounted to $9.8 trillion or 11.3% of global GDP, up from 2012. Europe remained the most peaceful region while South Asia improved the most. Internal conflicts increased while external conflicts decreased. Militarization decreased in some areas but increased in others such as the Middle East. Countries at highest risk of deteriorating peace included Zambia, Haiti, Argentina and Chad.
The document provides an economic update for Sri Lanka in April 2010. It summarizes that GDP growth was 3.5% in 2009, with services contributing most to the economy. Tourism arrivals increased 53.7% in March 2010. The BOI targets $5 billion in foreign investment over six years. Inflation decreased to 5.8% in April. Commercial bank lending to the private sector increased. It also discusses delays to Sri Lanka's 2010 budget and provides details on aid received from ADB and Japan. The Greece debt crisis is outlined, including a $145 billion bailout package agreed in May 2010.
OECD: The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic (Presentation)chaganomics
The impact of the Covid-19 outbreak on economic prospects is severe Growth was weak but stabilising until the coronavirus Covid-19 hit. Restrictions on movement of people, goods and services, and containment measures such as factory closures have cut manufacturing and domestic demand sharply in China. The impact on the rest of the world through business travel and tourism, supply chains, commodities and lower confidence is growing.
Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth...ijtsrd
The article aimed to investigate the relationship between inflation rate, foreign direct investment, interest rate, and economic growth of ten 10 emerging Sub Sahara African countries for the period 1998 to 2018. The random effects GLS regression estimator was employed to examine the equilibrium relationship between the variables. From the results, foreign direct investment had a significantly positive influence on GDP, while the inflation rate and interest rate trivially positively predicted GDP. Based on these findings, the study recommended that the government of emerging nations should put prudent measures to improve inflation, interest rate, and foreign direct investment within the economy for sound wellbeing. Ofori Charles | Shuibin Gu | Takyi Kwabena Nsiah | Eric Dwomoh "Inflation Rate, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Sub Sahara Africa: Evidence from Emerging Nations" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-4 | Issue-6 , October 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd31105.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/economics/international-economics/31105/inflation-rate-foreign-direct-investment-interest-rate-and-economic-growth-in-sub-sahara-africa-evidence-from-emerging-nations/ofori-charles
1) Indonesia has experienced strong economic growth in recent decades but faces short-term challenges including a slowing economy, widening budget deficit, and currency depreciation due to capital outflows.
2) Weakening commodity prices and slowing investment have reduced GDP growth to an estimated 5.5% in 2013 and 5.0% in the medium term, down from over 5.9% in 2008-2012.
3) A widening current account deficit, capital outflows, and currency depreciation have increased inflation and interest rates, constraining fiscal and monetary policy options.
"Tunisia's debt ratio increased sharply to almost 70% of GDP at the end of 2017 and higher than anticipated spending pressures and a heavy public sector wage bill limit its budget flexibility"
As covid 19 is on its path of disrupting and damaging world economies, the economy of India is also not unaffected. With this review paper it has been tried to find the various impacts of lockdown and covid 19 on tourism industry specifically in India. Impact of corona on Indian economy, tourism, and other parts of tourism will be analyzed with the help of content analysis. Medical tourism being hit at large will also be discussed apart from other sections of tourism in India. This paper will also attempt to gather the views on responsible tourism and will gather the suggested possible frameworks for government and bureaucrats to consider. Bringing equality, social justice and oneness are some of the important aspects associated with tourism cohesively and so an attempt has been made to draw attention towards them in the study. Abhimanyu Awasthi | Md. Soyav | Kumari Shiwani "Effect of Covid-19 on Tourism Industry" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-1 , December 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38070.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/business-administration/38070/effect-of-covid19-on-tourism-industry/abhimanyu-awasthi
The document analyzes the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on civil aviation in various regions. It provides scenario analyses estimating reductions in air traffic, passenger numbers, and airline revenues for mainland China, Hong Kong/Macao/Taiwan, South Korea, Italy, and Iran in the first quarter of 2020 compared to original plans. The preliminary estimates indicate reductions of 21.9-22.9 million passengers and $4.9-5.1 billion in airline revenues for mainland China, and 8.8-9.7 million passengers and $2.1-2.3 billion for Hong Kong/Macao/Taiwan. The analysis finds the outbreak has significantly reduced international air traffic and airline revenues.
The document discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the SAARC region. It provides background on SAARC, including its objectives to promote cooperation. It then describes the virus and its effects on different SAARC countries like disrupting tourism in Bhutan and Pakistan's economy. Overall impacts include collapsed demand, job losses, and slowed transportation. The crisis could result in the region's worst economic performance in decades. SAARC countries have pledged funds to combat the virus. Post-lockdown, opportunities like strengthened supply chains and challenges like political conflicts remain for SAARC.
Effects of Coronavirus Covid 19 on Tourist Industryijtsrd
The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of the coronavirus pandemic COVID 19 on the tourism industry and to find the tourism sector that will result from this pandemic. In the absence of a similar earlier research, this research is designed to be conducted in a courteous manner. The pilot research involved 103 travelers selected on a non probability basis. The findings suggest that the current COVID 19 pandemic is likely to affect travelers behavior in terms of human safety, economic costs, beliefs and attitudes. Finally, the main findings and practical implications of this research are described in terms of crisis management, and the direction of further study is presented based on the findings and limitations of this research. Nazarbek Kamudas | Ganzorig Myagmardorj "Effects of Coronavirus (Covid-19) on Tourist Industry" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-1 , December 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38033.pdf Paper URL : https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/business-ethics/38033/effects-of-coronavirus-covid19-on-tourist-industry/nazarbek-kamudas
The Copernican Revolution in the Study of Economic Growth John Ross
The document discusses a "Copernican revolution" in the study of economic growth, where new evidence and methods of analysis challenged existing theories. Specifically:
1. Long-term studies by Maddison showed capital investment, not total factor productivity (TFP) as theorized by Solow, was the main driver of economic growth.
2. Jorgenson developed methods accounting for quality changes in capital and labor, addressing flaws in Solow's growth accounting framework.
3. International organizations now recognize the importance of capital investment over TFP, abandoning the theory that TFP is the primary source of growth.
The document discusses the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Sri Lanka and provides recommendations. It finds that the Sri Lankan economy is expected to grow at only 2.2% in 2020 due to the pandemic, down from previous estimates of 4.5-5%, and that a recession is possible globally. Key sectors like tourism, apparel and textiles, construction and retail will be severely impacted. It recommends that Sri Lanka establish an economic task force and provide tax incentives to export industries to attract investment and foreign exchange. The Sri Lankan government has announced an economic stimulus package including debt moratoriums and loans to support businesses during this difficult time.
Turkey's economy grew at an average annual rate of 4.4% from 2010 to 2020 but slowed to 0.3% in 2019 due to currency issues and US sanctions. Real GDP is forecast to increase by 3.9% per year from 2020 to 2025. Turkey had the 54th highest real GDP per capita in the world in 2020 at $10,054, lower than the Southern Europe regional average of $12,764. While the economy contracted in 2020 due to COVID-19, real GDP is expected to rebound in the coming years as the pandemic subsides.
Political risk and trade finance TXF conference - Nov 2014Damian Karmelich
Asia is at the nexus of global trade flows and is critical to the health of the global economy. The region accounts for more than 35 percent of the world’s trade and is forecast to contribute over 45 percent of global GDP in the coming decade. Yet its success is not assured. Among the many challenges are a series of political events and trends that threaten the region’s trade flows and the financial infrastructure that underpins them.
This presentation examines political risk in the Asia region drawing on Political Monitor’s Asia Political Risk Index. It includes, an analysis of key trends and events likely to influence the politics of the region, a review of regional hotspots, an in-depth examination of political risk in key markets, and a discussion of the implications of political risk for trade flows and finance.
The document summarizes the top 5 political risks for Australia in 2014 according to a political risk research firm. The risks are: 1) Senate obstructionism blocking the government's agenda, 2) the risk of a double dissolution election, 3) government instability in Victoria, 4) budget uncertainty until the 2014 budget is released, and 5) policy uncertainty due to multiple government reviews across various sectors. More analysis can be found on the firm's website.
International Financial Management Political RiskLesly Lising
Political risk refers to risks faced by multinational companies from political actions in foreign countries they invest in. Such risks include laws requiring a certain percentage of local hires, investment in social projects, currency restrictions, discriminatory practices like higher taxes/fees, and expropriation. Political risk must be assessed based on the stability of the host government, prevailing political views, likely views of future governments, efficiency of government processes, economic stability, and strength of legal system. Political risks are classified as firm-specific, country-specific like transfer risk of blocked funds, cultural/institutional risks, and global risks affecting companies globally like terrorism. Reducing political risk involves cooperating with host countries, making appropriate investments, acting responsibly
Relatório da Economist distribuído a grandes bancos diz que Brasil tem “alto ...diariodocentrodomundo
Um relatório anual da revista The Economist distribuído aos bancos coloca o Brasil numa posição de “alto risco operacional” devido à pandemia da Covid-19.
O documento alerta sobre o que pode acontecer na América Latina após o coronavírus: “Haverá ‘cicatrizes’ econômicas de investimentos e perdas de capital humano, e grandes mudanças setoriais, à medida que alguns setores avançam enquanto outros lutam.”
Essas crises às vésperas das eleições podem provocar uma onda de mudança. “Em um grande ano eleitoral para a América Latina, os riscos políticos já estão se tornando evidentes. O risco político é alto à medida que os eleitores protestam contra os governantes e pedem mudanças, dando espaço para que as propostas populistas prosperem”, diz a Economist.
Segundo a revista, um dos maiores fatores de risco para o continente é a baixa eficácia dos governos federais no combate ao vírus. No caso do Brasil, Bolsonaro é citado nominalmente e acusado de “enfraquecer as instituições democráticas”.
Political risk outlook investment pack - March 2014 - slideshareDamian Karmelich
The Political Monitor monthly political risk outlook pack examines key political trends and events likely to shape markets in the month ahead. It includes political risk scores, indices and analysis of the interplay between politics & markets.
One of NIGERIA’S greatest challenges is CORRUPTION – in Public and Private Institutions – which has greatly affected her development as well as how her Citizens are treated in other countries. This analysis takes an in-depth look TI CPI of Nigeria from 1998 till date.
The Dynamics of Building Political Support for Social Protection in Uganda: I...BASIS AMA Innovation Lab
A presentation by Charles Lwanga-Ntale from the 2009 BASIS Conference on "Escaping Poverty Traps: Connecting the Chronically Poor to the Economic Growth Agenda."
The document provides a summary of key security risks and political issues expected in different regions of the world in the fourth quarter of 2015. In Latin America, controversial elections are expected in Guatemala, Haiti and Argentina, while protests over economic issues are likely to continue in countries like Brazil, Mexico and Ecuador. In Africa, elections scheduled in several countries may increase political instability, while the security situation will remain challenging in Asia due to ongoing militant activities and political tensions in countries like Thailand and Myanmar. Militancy, conflict, and health issues related to infrastructure damage will also continue affecting the Middle East and North Africa.
- Core retail sales in Brazil increased 0.8% in October and broad retail sales increased 8.0%, exceeding expectations. Annual growth rates were 9.1% and 14.5% respectively.
- Recently, broad retail trade has been fluctuating significantly depending on government tax incentives, while core retail sales remains detached from its average level since 2009.
- The authors expect continued expansion in the retail sector guided by job growth, fiscal stimulus, and loose monetary policy in coming months, though the sustainability of recovery is unclear especially in manufacturing.
The document discusses gender responsive budgeting. It begins by defining a budget and the budgeting process. It then discusses how budget preparation currently lacks citizen participation and transparency. The document outlines the key steps in budget preparation, including setting fiscal targets, allocating resources, and addressing efficiency. It also discusses different budgeting approaches and the issues with incremental budgeting. Finally, it provides examples of how to make budget call circulars and the budget process more gender responsive.
Our coverage of the Americas this month includes a new report on Costa Rica, where the legislature continues to block tax reforms proposed by President Luis Guillermo Solís, even as the country pushes ever-closer to a full-blown fiscal
The India Risk Survey 2015 analyzes and quantifies ‘potentially destructive’ risks to business enterprises in the country. It provides a referral to understand the complexity of these new risks across the spectrum of stakeholders, i.e., policymakers, corporate and members of the civil society. It also aims to prioritize risks which will enable many industries, public and private, to allocate resources required for its mitigation. The survey is an attempt to sensitise the Government and the corporate world about the emerging risks and the danger they pose, so that a well-planned strategic policy decision could be formulated and implemented.
This document provides an overview of IDBI Bank and discusses its history, business strengths, and strategic priorities. IDBI Bank was established in 1964 as India's apex development financial institution and played a critical role in the country's industrial and economic progress. It has since transitioned to a universal bank while maintaining its leadership in corporate and infrastructure lending. The bank has a strong technology platform, high operational efficiencies, and aims to expand its retail footprint and global presence while upholding high standards of governance and social responsibility.
This document provides an overview and outlook on the Indian economy and equity markets for 2014. It discusses that many macroeconomic and geopolitical issues from 2013 are now behind us, presenting opportunities in equity markets. Key themes for 2014 include maintaining a balanced approach to investing, allocating to mid and small cap funds and sectors like infrastructure. The document also notes risks like a weak coalition government or higher inflation. It recommends duration and accrual fixed income strategies for 2014 given the current economic environment. In summary, it presents a positive outlook for Indian markets in 2014, noting various economic and policy improvements that could support a recovery, while also outlining some risks.
Political risk is the risk that arises out of uncertainty and instability within the government framework or political institutions in a country.
To know more about it, refer to the following article:
https://efinancemanagement.com/investment-decisions/political-risk
The five kinds of freedoms associated with sustainable development are:
(1) political freedoms;
(2) economic facilities;
(3) social opportunities;
(4) transparency guarantees;
(5) protective security.
5 Insights on Future Challenges Facing Governments.pdfWajidKhanMP
What are the government's most pressing challenges in the second half of 2020? We asked 700 selected national and local politicians and officials from our network to participate in the survey. Wajid khan Mentioned The following five insights from our network's responses demonstrate an interesting prioritization of the problem.
1. The government will keep her busy in 2020 by solving budget problems and creating jobs.
The Covid-19 pandemic and its side effects are hitting the economy. That has a negative impact not only on job numbers but also on government tax revenues and, thus, budgets at all levels. Mayors, elected politicians, and civil servants are working to reduce the negative impact on budgets and government services. In addition, finding ways to stimulate local, regional and national economies and help businesses create new jobs is crucial for governments. These efforts will continue for the rest of the year and remain on the 2020 political agenda.
2. Aside from mitigating the impact of the corona crisis,
politicians and officials are divided over other policy areas the government will occupy in 2020. Aside from budgets and jobs, there has yet to be a consensus among politicians and officials on other pressing issues that will settle government in the second half of 2020. On the one hand, politicians assume that health and care issues will continue to be high on the agenda. On the other hand, civil servants focus on digitization and climate change. This is a direct reflection of the working environment of the two groups.
Politicians are thinking about how to make systems (such as health and care) more resilient to future crises, while governments are wondering how (their) day-to-day operations will be digitized. I am more concerned about what measures need to be implemented.
3. Politicians feel better equipped than officials to deal with pressing problems
Only a quarter of officials believe they will have the necessary resources to address their most pressing policy issues in the second half of 2020. In addition to more financial resources and better infrastructure, they are demanding new ways of bringing expertise and knowledge to the government (e.g., cooperation). Other governments, citizens, and scientists). By contrast, nearly half of the politicians surveyed believe they have the resources to address key policy challenges in 2020.
4. Politicians and officials want to learn how to manage the climate crisis from other governments.
Again, politicians and officials need a complete consensus on what policy areas they would like to learn from other governments. Politicians focus on education and climate policy, but officials want to know more about digitalization and how different governments plan to meet their climate goals. Climate change remains a top priority for governments, and the coronavirus crisis has only partially changed attitudes toward related projects and policies.
This document outlines a presentation on strategically advancing social protection policies in Africa. It discusses the current context of economic growth and rising inequality in many African countries. It then reviews existing evidence and knowledge on social protection programs in Africa, which still only reach a small portion of those in need. The presentation argues for turning research into policy action through a dedicated forum or "Utafiti Sera" that brings together researchers, policymakers, and practitioners. Its expected outcomes include legislation to strengthen social protection systems and universalize certain cash transfer programs in Kenya.
PRS’ coverage of the Americas in July includes an assessment of risk in Ecuador, where President Rafael Correa is scrambling to make up a massive revenue shortfall resulting from the slide in global oil prices, while simultaneously attempting to fend off pressure from a reinvigorated opposition. PRS will discuss the implications of the fiscal squeeze for political stability in the near term,
Political risk outlook investment pack - March 2015Damian Karmelich
A leadership crisis in Australia, rising food prices across Asia and Russia’s search for security are all shaping markets. The Political Monitor Political Risk Outlook Investment Pack examines these issues and more, including:
Australian Political Risk Index - examines how recent political events have unnerved investors
- State in focus: a change of government in the resource rich state of Queensland
- The impact of rising food prices in Asia
- Countries in focus: Indonesia, Philippines and Viet Nam
- Global outlook - how events in the EU and Russia are shaping markets.
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El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
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An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
2. OUTLINE
This presentation provides a summary of Political Monitor‟s monthly Risk
Outlook report. It includes Political Monitor‟s proprietary risk scores and indices
including the Asia Political Risk Index.
To find out more about subscribing to the monthly pack please contact:
Damian Karmelich
Partner – Sydney
p. 0407 772 548
e. karmelichd@politicalmonitor.com,au
Steve Cusworth
Partner - Melbourne
p. 0417 178 697
e. cusworths@politicalmonitor.com.au
Political risk outlook
February 2014
3. CONTENTS
•
Global outlook …………………………………………………………………….. p. 4
•
Asia Political Risk Index …………………………………………………………. p. 6
•
Key influencing factors …………………………………………………. p .7
•
Country in focus: Indonesia ……………………………………………………... p. 8
•
Latest reports ………………....…………………………………………………... p. 9
•
Appendix 1 ………………………………………………………………………… p. 12
Political risk outlook
February 2014
4. GLOBAL OUTLOOK
•
Elections are set to shape markets in 2014 as some of the world‟s most important
economies go to the polls. Politicians in the United States, European Union, Brazil,
South Africa and Indonesia will all face voters.
•
The US debt ceiling debate is cloaked in the politics of the Congressional mid-term
elections and the battle for the soul of the Republican party between moderates and
Tea Party radicals.
•
Likewise Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid‟s (D) opposition to fast track approval for
trade deals is a play to the Democratic base of labour unions and a sign that the
Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement will not pass through Congress easily.
•
The flight of hot money from emerging markets in response to a wind down of
quantitative easing has revealed the institutional weakness within many of these
countries and the extent of political risk in these markets.
Political risk outlook
February 2014
5. GLOBAL OUTLOOK
•
Argentina, Brazil, South Africa & Turkey all suffer from systemic weaknesses including
an executive that confuses their own political interests with that of the country, a
trampling of judicial independence, corruption and a political process dominated by
one major party.
•
The pummeling of emerging market currencies will have a dire effect on living
standards.
•
In many countries this will be exacerbated by weak commodity prices and the
resultant hit to government revenue making it harder for regimes to paper over latent
social inequality and spend their way out of crisis.
•
Political turmoil across emerging markets will continue to rise over the coming weeks
and months.
Political risk outlook
February 2014
6. ASIA POLITICAL RISK INDEX - risk of turmoil high in some of
the region‟s most important economies
Political risk outlook
February 2014
7. ASIA POLITICAL RISK INDEX – Key influencing factors
•
Countries rated VERY HIGH or EXTREME share a number of characteristics including
– high levels of corruption, large proportion of population under the age of 30 and high
youth unemployment, a large proportion of household budgets spent on foodstuffs and
low levels of investment from domestic firms.
•
Furthermore, VERY HIGH and EXTREME risk countries have limited outlets for
political discourse pushing dissent underground where it is difficult to track but prone
to rapid escalation with little notice.
•
The recent flight of money out of emerging markets will further expose the underlying
institutional weakness of a number of VERY HIGH and EXTREME risk countries.
•
A number of VERY HIGH and EXTREME risk countries share characteristics with
those Arab countries that experienced turmoil during the „Arab Spring‟.
•
A number of MODERATE and LOW risk countries confront significant economic
challenges but are less exposed to political volatility and / or social turmoil.
Political risk outlook
February 2014
8. COUNTRY IN FOCUS - Indonesia
•
Indonesia is currently rated a HIGH risk with a
score of 55 out of 100 on the Political Monitor Asia Political Risk Index.
•
Presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 limit the scope for economic reform
and a sustained battle against corruption and rising social inequality.
•
Election season is also contributing to a rise in populism and economic nationalism.
Recent bans on the export of unprocessed mineral ores, foreign ownership
restrictions for banks and import tariffs all play to a domestic audience in an election
year.
•
Ethnic and religious tensions continue to simmer in the regions. While the government
has subdued terrorist groups underlying issues such as youth unemployment and
rising inequality remain fertile hunting grounds for extremists.
•
While Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo is emerging as a firm favourite for the
presidency Indonesia‟s geographic, ethnic and religious diversity ensures no party can
acquire a majority in the parliament sentencing the country to more years of coalition
rule.
Political risk outlook
February 2014
9. LATEST REPORTS
Lower prices set to change politics of foreign investment
The hit to national income from lower commodity prices is likely to force a
dramatic re-think of Australians‟ attitude towards foreign ownership.
The competition agenda – a return to incentives
The Abbott Government‟s „root and branch‟ review of competition policy
offers the prospect of a return to the productivity-fuelled growth of the
1990s. Yet of most importance will be the underlying shift from a focus on
enabling to a focus on incentives.
Shanghai Free Trade Zone – opportunities & risks
The Shanghai Free Trade Zone offers opportunities and pitfalls for firms.
Understanding the rules and the longer term plan is the key to success.
Political risk outlook
February 2014
10. Detailed analysis on these and other political risks confronting investors can be
found at www.politicalmonitor.com.au
About Political Monitor
Political Monitor is a political risk research and advisory firm. Our analysis
provides insight into the implications of political risk for commercial valuations,
asset selection, investment decisions, strategic planning and operational
decisions.
Political risk outlook
February 2014
12. APPENDIX 1 - ASIA POLITICAL RISK INDEX METHODOLOGY
The Political Monitor Asia Political Risk Index tracks nine key variables that go
to the core of political risk in a country. The variables provide an indication of
economic and social inequality, particularly among key demographics, and the
risk of political and social turmoil. Those variables include the level of youth
unemployment, corruption, elasticity of demand for food, the percentage of the
population living below the poverty line, and the proportion of foreign debt to
Gross National Income (GNI).
The index provides a relative score for each country. Accordingly, a low
(particularly negative) raw score signals lower relative risk while a high raw
score signals higher relative risk. Scores have then been scaled from 0 – 100.
A score of 50 signals average risk relative to other countries.
Political risk outlook
February 2014