The document discusses three major theoretical models of voting behavior:
1) The sociological model emphasizes the influence of social factors and that voters align with candidates/parties that their social groups support.
2) The psychosocial model views party identification as the main determinant of voting decisions.
3) Rational choice theory focuses on variables like rational decision making, choice, and how information influences voting choices. The document reviews the key assumptions of each model and argues they are complementary in explaining electoral behavior.
On Radicalism-A Study of Political Methods in the Shadow Land of Activism and...Sophie Sj
This document is a thesis that examines methods of political participation among extra-parliamentary groups in Sweden. It aims to show that there is a distinction between political radicalism, activism, and terrorism when classifying groups. The thesis provides a theoretical framework on political participation and introduces the concept of radicalism. It analyzes interviews conducted with members of four Swedish groups - Antifascistisk Aktion Väst, Allt åt Alla Uppsala, Nordisk Ungdom, and Svenska Motståndsrörelsen - to empirically support distinguishing radicalism as its own subcategory between activism and terrorism. The analysis finds that current definitions of political actions are lacking and that emphasizing radical
Issues of Objectivity and Credibility regarding Political news on Social mediaAqsa Nadeem
This document is a research proposal examining credibility and objectivity issues regarding political news shared on social media. It discusses how leaders of political parties in Pakistan, such as PTI and PAT, used Facebook to criticize the government and other parties from August to November 2014. The proposal aims to analyze public responses on Facebook to see if they are emotionally biased or consider the credibility of news. The literature review discusses past research on media attribution, contingent factors affecting credibility, and bias. However, none have specifically analyzed political campaigns on social media. The methodology will use content analysis to code Facebook comments on key parties for neutrality, subjectivity, and contempt. A pilot study analyzed 40 comments, finding most PTI and PAT supporters followed leaders blindly
This document summarizes a study that examines how both general political attributes (e.g. knowledge, interest) and issue-specific engagement (e.g. perceived understanding, importance) predict two types of media selectivity: interest-based selectivity between news and entertainment, and partisan selectivity between like-minded and counter-attitudinal news. Using a large survey experiment, the study finds issue-specific factors predict selectivity above and beyond general attributes. Those more engaged with specific issues through higher perceived understanding, importance, or attitude strength were less likely to choose entertainment over news and more likely to select pro-attitudinal news. The results suggest selectivity is contextual and varies with issue engagement.
Different models of issue voting in britainAnurag Gangal
This document summarizes and compares different models of issue voting, and how they explain voting behavior in recent British elections. It discusses models like the Michigan Model, proximity models, valence voting models, and how they have evolved over time from the 1950s to today. While no single model can fully capture unpredictable voter behavior, these models provide useful frameworks for analyzing trends and major patterns of issue-based voting. The document also analyzes how factors like party identification, policy preferences, leadership images, and economic conditions influence how voters make choices between parties in British elections.
This document discusses the impact of mass media on executive leadership in contemporary democracies. While political research on media issues remains limited compared to other areas, it is widely acknowledged that understanding modern politics requires considering the influence of mass media. The document notes that most research has focused on how media have increased the power of governments and chief executives, but effects on leadership have received little attention. It argues for a comparative perspective to better understand the fundamental relationship between governments, leaders, and media in established democracies.
Exposure to opposing views on social media can increase political polarizatio...eraser Juan José Calderón
Exposure to opposing views on social media can
increase political polarization. Christopher A. Baila & others.
Christopher A. Baila,1, Lisa P. Argyleb, Taylor W. Browna, John P. Bumpusa, Haohan Chenc, M. B. Fallin Hunzakerd, Jaemin Leea, Marcus Manna, Friedolin Merhouta, and Alexander Volfovskye
Media access and exposure as determinants of the political Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examined the relationship between media access and exposure on the political knowledge of undergraduates in Southwestern Nigeria. The study found that exposure to electronic media like television predicted higher political knowledge among respondents compared to print media. Most respondents preferred television as their main source of political information. The study recommended that governments and media organizations collaborate to increase youth access to print media and ensure broadcast media adhere to professional standards.
This document reviews 27 syllabi for courses on political psychology from both graduate and undergraduate programs. It finds that while the field of political psychology covers a vast range of topics, the syllabi generally focus on understanding how human nature influences political phenomena. However, the breadth of the field poses challenges for constructing coherent course syllabi. Additionally, most programs do not recognize political psychology as a distinct subfield, leading to a heavy focus on US politics in many courses. The review suggests political psychologists should address this US-centric bias. Overall, it finds that the syllabi match well with the diverse work being conducted in the dynamic field of political psychology.
On Radicalism-A Study of Political Methods in the Shadow Land of Activism and...Sophie Sj
This document is a thesis that examines methods of political participation among extra-parliamentary groups in Sweden. It aims to show that there is a distinction between political radicalism, activism, and terrorism when classifying groups. The thesis provides a theoretical framework on political participation and introduces the concept of radicalism. It analyzes interviews conducted with members of four Swedish groups - Antifascistisk Aktion Väst, Allt åt Alla Uppsala, Nordisk Ungdom, and Svenska Motståndsrörelsen - to empirically support distinguishing radicalism as its own subcategory between activism and terrorism. The analysis finds that current definitions of political actions are lacking and that emphasizing radical
Issues of Objectivity and Credibility regarding Political news on Social mediaAqsa Nadeem
This document is a research proposal examining credibility and objectivity issues regarding political news shared on social media. It discusses how leaders of political parties in Pakistan, such as PTI and PAT, used Facebook to criticize the government and other parties from August to November 2014. The proposal aims to analyze public responses on Facebook to see if they are emotionally biased or consider the credibility of news. The literature review discusses past research on media attribution, contingent factors affecting credibility, and bias. However, none have specifically analyzed political campaigns on social media. The methodology will use content analysis to code Facebook comments on key parties for neutrality, subjectivity, and contempt. A pilot study analyzed 40 comments, finding most PTI and PAT supporters followed leaders blindly
This document summarizes a study that examines how both general political attributes (e.g. knowledge, interest) and issue-specific engagement (e.g. perceived understanding, importance) predict two types of media selectivity: interest-based selectivity between news and entertainment, and partisan selectivity between like-minded and counter-attitudinal news. Using a large survey experiment, the study finds issue-specific factors predict selectivity above and beyond general attributes. Those more engaged with specific issues through higher perceived understanding, importance, or attitude strength were less likely to choose entertainment over news and more likely to select pro-attitudinal news. The results suggest selectivity is contextual and varies with issue engagement.
Different models of issue voting in britainAnurag Gangal
This document summarizes and compares different models of issue voting, and how they explain voting behavior in recent British elections. It discusses models like the Michigan Model, proximity models, valence voting models, and how they have evolved over time from the 1950s to today. While no single model can fully capture unpredictable voter behavior, these models provide useful frameworks for analyzing trends and major patterns of issue-based voting. The document also analyzes how factors like party identification, policy preferences, leadership images, and economic conditions influence how voters make choices between parties in British elections.
This document discusses the impact of mass media on executive leadership in contemporary democracies. While political research on media issues remains limited compared to other areas, it is widely acknowledged that understanding modern politics requires considering the influence of mass media. The document notes that most research has focused on how media have increased the power of governments and chief executives, but effects on leadership have received little attention. It argues for a comparative perspective to better understand the fundamental relationship between governments, leaders, and media in established democracies.
Exposure to opposing views on social media can increase political polarizatio...eraser Juan José Calderón
Exposure to opposing views on social media can
increase political polarization. Christopher A. Baila & others.
Christopher A. Baila,1, Lisa P. Argyleb, Taylor W. Browna, John P. Bumpusa, Haohan Chenc, M. B. Fallin Hunzakerd, Jaemin Leea, Marcus Manna, Friedolin Merhouta, and Alexander Volfovskye
Media access and exposure as determinants of the political Alexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examined the relationship between media access and exposure on the political knowledge of undergraduates in Southwestern Nigeria. The study found that exposure to electronic media like television predicted higher political knowledge among respondents compared to print media. Most respondents preferred television as their main source of political information. The study recommended that governments and media organizations collaborate to increase youth access to print media and ensure broadcast media adhere to professional standards.
This document reviews 27 syllabi for courses on political psychology from both graduate and undergraduate programs. It finds that while the field of political psychology covers a vast range of topics, the syllabi generally focus on understanding how human nature influences political phenomena. However, the breadth of the field poses challenges for constructing coherent course syllabi. Additionally, most programs do not recognize political psychology as a distinct subfield, leading to a heavy focus on US politics in many courses. The review suggests political psychologists should address this US-centric bias. Overall, it finds that the syllabi match well with the diverse work being conducted in the dynamic field of political psychology.
The goal of this paper is to present the evolution of populism in Poland
using the examples of two political parties: the “Samoobrona” (“Self-Defense”)
political party of Andrzej Lepper (a populist party which garnered most support in
the first decade of the 21st century) and the “Kukiz ‘15” movement – the dark horse
of the last Polish parliamentary elections. Both of these groups superbly illustrate
the demagogy characteristic of populism, linked with an affirmation of the people
(nation) which in turn would not be possible without the anti-establishment stance
of the political leaders and the electorate. A comparison of these two examples allows us to monitor the transformations occurring in populist groups over the last
few years, especially in the age where the Internet is employed as a vital means of
communication. The paper presents the alternative conceptualizations of the idea
of populism, and moves on to employ the N. Baar scheme (2009) and secondary
and primary data (data obtained from the “Barometr Wyborczy” voting advisory
application), and press releases to draft various types of correspondence between
these two cases, which makes it possible to identify new, interesting characteristics
of populism.
Issue Ownership And Representation A Theory Of Legislativelegal2
This document summarizes a theory proposed by Patrick J. Egan about how legislative responsiveness to public opinion can vary based on "issue ownership". The theory is that political parties are seen as having expertise in handling certain issues, known as "issue ownership". Egan develops a model showing that legislators are generally responsive to public preferences but may deviate on issues their party "owns" due to the public trusting that party more on that issue. He tests this using data on public opinion and Congressional roll-call voting in the US, finding support for the theory that representatives have more flexibility in their voting on issues their party owns.
This document provides biographical and professional information about John C. Pollock, a professor of communication studies. It details his educational background, current research interests, teaching experience, publications, awards, and recent book on media coverage and how community characteristics can influence frame-building in news stories. Testimonials are provided from other scholars praising Pollock's book which uses a community structure approach to analyze how inequality in cities can help drive nationwide media coverage of critical issues and events.
This document summarizes a research study on the relationship between social media usage and political views. The researchers conducted a survey of college students to measure their use of social media for political expression and their latitude of acceptance of different political views. They hypothesized that greater social media use for politics would be correlated with a smaller latitude of acceptance. The survey included questions from Sherif and Hovland's Ordered Alternatives questionnaire to measure latitude of acceptance as the dependent variable. The literature review discussed previous research on polarization from opinionated news and social media use for civic engagement.
This document discusses a study on altruistic punishment in elections. The study uses a voting experiment to provide evidence that many voters are willing to vote at a cost to punish candidates who broke electoral promises, even when the voter is indifferent to the election outcome. Specifically, the experiment found that at least 14% of indifferent voters chose to vote against a candidate who broke a promise, incurring a personal cost to do so, indicating they voted based on altruistic punishment motives rather than strategic concerns. This provides quantitative evidence that altruistic punishment, the desire to sanction uncooperative behavior, can influence political voting decisions.
Grand visions, social transformation, and war: Autocratic leadership ideology...Tom Hanna
Why are some autocracies more prone to interstate conflict than others? Recent scholarship on the nexus between authoritarian politics and international conflict has demonstrated the role of institutional constraints on autocratic leaders. Scholarship on the politics of dictatorships has emphasized domestic policy driven by a single motivation, remaining in power. Yet, autocrats do have other motivations and institutional configurations do not tell us everything we need to know about authoritarian leaders. Some autocrats gain power through coups or revolutions, telegraphing a level of risk tolerance which may spill over into interstate conflict. Others rise to power as leaders of ideological movements advocating massive social transformation. Projects of social change are inherently risky to the acknowledged interest of the leader in retaining power. So, these transformative ideologues share the revolutionary leader’s risk tolerance. Further, ideological visionaries are less limited by institutional constraints. In many cases, the vision for social transformation itself transcends national boundaries, creating a new cause of conflict. The evidence presented demonstrates that autocratic leaders with transformative ideologies are associated with a higher risk of international conflict regardless of institutional types.
This summary provides an overview of a research study examining factors that could predict police officers' attitudes towards the Black Lives Matter movement. The study surveyed 68 police officers across two departments, collecting data on demographics, preferred news sources, and moral beliefs. Significant positive correlations were found between survey items. Hispanic officers were more likely than white officers to perceive Black Lives Matter as legitimate. The use of conservative vs. neutral news sources also predicted some differences in attitudes. The study aimed to understand how individual police officers' characteristics may influence their interactions with communities and views of the Black Lives Matter movement.
This document provides an overview of a paper that will discuss issues with disproportionate minority confinement in the US criminal justice system. It begins with a brief history of the author's experience growing up as a young black man in a low-income urban environment. It then discusses the "Nothing Works" doctrine which hypothesized that rehabilitation programs did not work. It notes high recidivism rates and that minorities are disproportionately represented in the criminal justice system. The paper aims to investigate why rehabilitation programs have failed and why minorities face disproportionate rates of confinement through the author's perspective combining academic study and experience as a law enforcement officer.
This document provides background information on political opportunities and discursive opportunities utilized by opposing social movements, using the case study of debates around domestic violence ordinance reform in Hong Kong. It reviews literature on how movements use political opportunities like access to decision makers or alliances, and discursive opportunities like existing cultural frames, to mobilize and make arguments. The context in Hong Kong around its sovereignty transfer from Britain to China created new political opportunities for both sides of the debate. The document introduces the key issues and context in Hong Kong to set up analysis of how the two sides utilized different opportunities and rhetoric in the DVO reform debates.
Parsons viewed power as serving collective goals that benefit society as a whole. Power differentials are necessary to organize society and pursue shared values and goals. Critics argue Parsons naively justified existing power structures rather than recognizing power is often used to benefit certain sections of society. Pluralist theories also viewed power as dispersed among competing interest groups and the government as a neutral arbitrator. Later elite pluralism recognized some groups like the working class are under-represented and economic groups have more policy influence, but power is still seen as diffused with no single dominant group. However, critics note pluralism only examines visible decision-making and fails to acknowledge power can also be exercised through agenda-setting and shaping dominant ideologies.
This document discusses framing effects in politics and how they may impact politicians and citizens differently. It summarizes previous research showing that citizens are often vulnerable to framing biases in their political preferences and decision-making. The document questions whether elected officials are also susceptible to framing effects or if they are better able to avoid them due to greater political experience and sophistication. It hypothesizes that politicians will be less impacted by framing than citizens, and that susceptibility to framing will decrease as political experience and position increases. The document aims to test this by comparing how politicians and citizens respond to differently framed policy questions.
This document summarizes an article about patron-client politics and political change in Southeast Asia. It begins by explaining how patron-client relationships differ from class-based or primordial models of political association. Patron-client ties involve informal, reciprocal relationships between individuals of unequal status, where patrons provide protection/benefits to clients in exchange for loyalty/support. The document then discusses how patron-client networks penetrate and influence nominally modern political institutions in Southeast Asia. It argues that understanding these networks is crucial for comprehending non-primordial cleavages and dynamics of personal alliance that shape politics in the region. The article aims to clarify the nature of patron-client ties, how they vary, and how they have been impacted by
Cognitive Biases and Communication Strength in Social Networks.pdfssuser1867b7
Media stories often reach citizens via a two-step process, transmitted to them indirectly via their social
networks. Why are some media stories strongly transmitted and impact opinions powerfully in this twostep flow while others quickly perish? Integrating classical research on the two-step flow of political
communication and novel theories from cognitive psychology, this article outlines a model for
understanding the strength of political frames in the two-step flow. It argues that frames that resonate
with cognitive biases (that is, deep-seated psychological decision rules) will be transmitted more and have
a stronger influence on opinion when citizens recollect media frames in their social networks. Focusing on
the case of episodic and thematic frames, the study tests this model. It introduces a novel research design:
implementing the children’s game ‘Telephone’ in consecutive experimental online surveys fielded to
nationally representative samples. This design helps gauge the reliability of transmission and the degree of
persuasiveness in actual chains of transmission.
Kim, M.J., & Park, H. W. (2012). Measuring Twitter-Based Political Participat...Han Woo PARK
Kim, M.J., & Park, H. W. (2012). Measuring Twitter-Based Political Participation and Deliberation in the South Korean Context by Using Social Network and Triple Helix Indicators. Scientometrics. 90 (1), 121-140.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11192-011-0508-5#page-1
This document provides a literature review and background on a study examining factors influencing the political participation of students at the University of Johannesburg. It discusses the following key points in 3 sentences:
The study aims to understand why political participation has declined among South African youth by examining how students' demographic characteristics and perceptions of the ruling ANC party influence their participation. The literature review covers political participation in general, and how race, class, and perceptions of the ANC have been found to shape political involvement. The document provides context on the study which used a survey to quantitatively measure how factors like race, class, and views of government affect the political participation of students at the University of Johannesburg.
This document discusses how consumer behavior research could contribute to the public relations research agenda over the next decade by providing insights into individual behaviors. It identifies five areas where consumer research may be applicable: 1) message processing, 2) decision-making, 3) the influence of affect, 4) organizational-consumer relationships, and 5) consumer action behaviors. The document argues that while public relations deals with many types of audiences, these groups are made up of individuals who interact with organizations in exchange relationships similar to consumers. Insights from consumer behavior's focus on understanding individuals could help address gaps in public relations research on how communications influence behavior at the individual level.
Policy article review please answer the following questions regaramit657720
This document discusses the concept of "the social" in social media. It explores how the meaning of "social" has evolved from early notions of computer networking facilitating collaboration, to today's emphasis on loosely connected individuals in networks. Some key points discussed include:
- Jean Baudrillard's theory that the social has disappeared and imploded into the media.
- Whether social media interactions could spill over into real-world organizing or if they primarily serve individual entertainment and marketing.
- Theorists like Hardt and Negri who see social media as reinforcing repression rather than contestation of forces, though its productive social aspects are equally important.
- How the social now manifests itself through networked practices and
This paper presents the results of a new monitoring project of the US presidential elections with the aim of establishing computer-based tools to track in real time the popularity or awareness of candidates. The designed and developed innovative methods allow us to extract the frequency of queries sent to numerous search engines by US Internet users. Based on these data, this paper demonstrates that Trump was more frequently searched than the Democratic candidates, either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. When analyzing the topics, it is observed that in 2020 the US users had shown a remarkable interest in two subjects, namely, Coronavirus and Jobs (unemployment). Interest for other topics such as Education or Healthcare were less pronounced while issues such as Immigration were given even less attention by users. Finally, some “flame” topics such as Black Lives Matter (2020) and Gun Control (2016) appear to be very popular for a few weeks before returning to a low level of interest. When analyzing tweets sent by candidates during the 2020 campaign, one can observe that Trump was focused mainly on Jobs and on Riots, announcing what would happen if Democrats took power. To these negative ads, Biden answered by putting forward moral values (e.g., love, honesty) and political symbols (e.g., democracy, rights) and by underlying the failure of the current administration in resolving the pandemic situation.
This document provides a critical analysis of Erik Tancorov's research paper on the challenges faced by gender non-conforming students and their coping mechanisms. The analysis assess Tancorov's paper in terms of paradigm, genre, conceptual framework, research question, literature review, and methodology. It finds that Tancorov takes a social constructivist paradigm and uses a case study genre. While his research question and literature review are relevant, his methodology could be strengthened by incorporating additional data sources. The analysis concludes that explicitly stating the social constructivist paradigm and emphasizing queer identity development through a critical theory lens could enhance the effectiveness of Tancorov's study.
This document is a thesis proposal by Megan Lehman for an honors thesis at an unnamed university. The thesis will analyze the evolution of the "feminine style" of political rhetoric used by female politicians from different parties. It will compare the rhetoric of former Texas governor Ann Richards, a liberal, to that of conservative politicians Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Joni Ernst. The proposal provides background on previous research defining the feminine style and how it has traditionally been associated with liberal feminists. It outlines how the thesis will analyze similarities and differences in how these politicians used humor, personal anecdotes, and references to motherhood in their rhetoric.
This document discusses new media and its impact on priests and religious. It begins by introducing new media such as cell phones and how they have become integral parts of people's lives, especially young people. It then discusses how priests and religious have historically been pioneers in communication but are now lagging in adopting new media. The document provides an overview of different types of communication including mass, intrapersonal, interpersonal communication. It also discusses concepts relevant to interpersonal communication such as conversation, speech acts, communication competence, self-disclosure, and gender differences in communication styles. It emphasizes that new media and social networks have brought about major changes and will continue shaping communication in the future.
This document discusses factors that influence individual behavior. It describes needs, motives, goals, values, beliefs, attitudes, perception, personality and motivation as key determinants of behavior. It provides details about each factor, including how they are formed and how they shape individual actions and responses to internal and external stimuli. Personality is influenced by heredity, environment, and situational factors. Key aspects of personality discussed are locus of control, Machiavellianism, self-esteem, self-monitoring, risk-taking, and Type A vs Type B.
The goal of this paper is to present the evolution of populism in Poland
using the examples of two political parties: the “Samoobrona” (“Self-Defense”)
political party of Andrzej Lepper (a populist party which garnered most support in
the first decade of the 21st century) and the “Kukiz ‘15” movement – the dark horse
of the last Polish parliamentary elections. Both of these groups superbly illustrate
the demagogy characteristic of populism, linked with an affirmation of the people
(nation) which in turn would not be possible without the anti-establishment stance
of the political leaders and the electorate. A comparison of these two examples allows us to monitor the transformations occurring in populist groups over the last
few years, especially in the age where the Internet is employed as a vital means of
communication. The paper presents the alternative conceptualizations of the idea
of populism, and moves on to employ the N. Baar scheme (2009) and secondary
and primary data (data obtained from the “Barometr Wyborczy” voting advisory
application), and press releases to draft various types of correspondence between
these two cases, which makes it possible to identify new, interesting characteristics
of populism.
Issue Ownership And Representation A Theory Of Legislativelegal2
This document summarizes a theory proposed by Patrick J. Egan about how legislative responsiveness to public opinion can vary based on "issue ownership". The theory is that political parties are seen as having expertise in handling certain issues, known as "issue ownership". Egan develops a model showing that legislators are generally responsive to public preferences but may deviate on issues their party "owns" due to the public trusting that party more on that issue. He tests this using data on public opinion and Congressional roll-call voting in the US, finding support for the theory that representatives have more flexibility in their voting on issues their party owns.
This document provides biographical and professional information about John C. Pollock, a professor of communication studies. It details his educational background, current research interests, teaching experience, publications, awards, and recent book on media coverage and how community characteristics can influence frame-building in news stories. Testimonials are provided from other scholars praising Pollock's book which uses a community structure approach to analyze how inequality in cities can help drive nationwide media coverage of critical issues and events.
This document summarizes a research study on the relationship between social media usage and political views. The researchers conducted a survey of college students to measure their use of social media for political expression and their latitude of acceptance of different political views. They hypothesized that greater social media use for politics would be correlated with a smaller latitude of acceptance. The survey included questions from Sherif and Hovland's Ordered Alternatives questionnaire to measure latitude of acceptance as the dependent variable. The literature review discussed previous research on polarization from opinionated news and social media use for civic engagement.
This document discusses a study on altruistic punishment in elections. The study uses a voting experiment to provide evidence that many voters are willing to vote at a cost to punish candidates who broke electoral promises, even when the voter is indifferent to the election outcome. Specifically, the experiment found that at least 14% of indifferent voters chose to vote against a candidate who broke a promise, incurring a personal cost to do so, indicating they voted based on altruistic punishment motives rather than strategic concerns. This provides quantitative evidence that altruistic punishment, the desire to sanction uncooperative behavior, can influence political voting decisions.
Grand visions, social transformation, and war: Autocratic leadership ideology...Tom Hanna
Why are some autocracies more prone to interstate conflict than others? Recent scholarship on the nexus between authoritarian politics and international conflict has demonstrated the role of institutional constraints on autocratic leaders. Scholarship on the politics of dictatorships has emphasized domestic policy driven by a single motivation, remaining in power. Yet, autocrats do have other motivations and institutional configurations do not tell us everything we need to know about authoritarian leaders. Some autocrats gain power through coups or revolutions, telegraphing a level of risk tolerance which may spill over into interstate conflict. Others rise to power as leaders of ideological movements advocating massive social transformation. Projects of social change are inherently risky to the acknowledged interest of the leader in retaining power. So, these transformative ideologues share the revolutionary leader’s risk tolerance. Further, ideological visionaries are less limited by institutional constraints. In many cases, the vision for social transformation itself transcends national boundaries, creating a new cause of conflict. The evidence presented demonstrates that autocratic leaders with transformative ideologies are associated with a higher risk of international conflict regardless of institutional types.
This summary provides an overview of a research study examining factors that could predict police officers' attitudes towards the Black Lives Matter movement. The study surveyed 68 police officers across two departments, collecting data on demographics, preferred news sources, and moral beliefs. Significant positive correlations were found between survey items. Hispanic officers were more likely than white officers to perceive Black Lives Matter as legitimate. The use of conservative vs. neutral news sources also predicted some differences in attitudes. The study aimed to understand how individual police officers' characteristics may influence their interactions with communities and views of the Black Lives Matter movement.
This document provides an overview of a paper that will discuss issues with disproportionate minority confinement in the US criminal justice system. It begins with a brief history of the author's experience growing up as a young black man in a low-income urban environment. It then discusses the "Nothing Works" doctrine which hypothesized that rehabilitation programs did not work. It notes high recidivism rates and that minorities are disproportionately represented in the criminal justice system. The paper aims to investigate why rehabilitation programs have failed and why minorities face disproportionate rates of confinement through the author's perspective combining academic study and experience as a law enforcement officer.
This document provides background information on political opportunities and discursive opportunities utilized by opposing social movements, using the case study of debates around domestic violence ordinance reform in Hong Kong. It reviews literature on how movements use political opportunities like access to decision makers or alliances, and discursive opportunities like existing cultural frames, to mobilize and make arguments. The context in Hong Kong around its sovereignty transfer from Britain to China created new political opportunities for both sides of the debate. The document introduces the key issues and context in Hong Kong to set up analysis of how the two sides utilized different opportunities and rhetoric in the DVO reform debates.
Parsons viewed power as serving collective goals that benefit society as a whole. Power differentials are necessary to organize society and pursue shared values and goals. Critics argue Parsons naively justified existing power structures rather than recognizing power is often used to benefit certain sections of society. Pluralist theories also viewed power as dispersed among competing interest groups and the government as a neutral arbitrator. Later elite pluralism recognized some groups like the working class are under-represented and economic groups have more policy influence, but power is still seen as diffused with no single dominant group. However, critics note pluralism only examines visible decision-making and fails to acknowledge power can also be exercised through agenda-setting and shaping dominant ideologies.
This document discusses framing effects in politics and how they may impact politicians and citizens differently. It summarizes previous research showing that citizens are often vulnerable to framing biases in their political preferences and decision-making. The document questions whether elected officials are also susceptible to framing effects or if they are better able to avoid them due to greater political experience and sophistication. It hypothesizes that politicians will be less impacted by framing than citizens, and that susceptibility to framing will decrease as political experience and position increases. The document aims to test this by comparing how politicians and citizens respond to differently framed policy questions.
This document summarizes an article about patron-client politics and political change in Southeast Asia. It begins by explaining how patron-client relationships differ from class-based or primordial models of political association. Patron-client ties involve informal, reciprocal relationships between individuals of unequal status, where patrons provide protection/benefits to clients in exchange for loyalty/support. The document then discusses how patron-client networks penetrate and influence nominally modern political institutions in Southeast Asia. It argues that understanding these networks is crucial for comprehending non-primordial cleavages and dynamics of personal alliance that shape politics in the region. The article aims to clarify the nature of patron-client ties, how they vary, and how they have been impacted by
Cognitive Biases and Communication Strength in Social Networks.pdfssuser1867b7
Media stories often reach citizens via a two-step process, transmitted to them indirectly via their social
networks. Why are some media stories strongly transmitted and impact opinions powerfully in this twostep flow while others quickly perish? Integrating classical research on the two-step flow of political
communication and novel theories from cognitive psychology, this article outlines a model for
understanding the strength of political frames in the two-step flow. It argues that frames that resonate
with cognitive biases (that is, deep-seated psychological decision rules) will be transmitted more and have
a stronger influence on opinion when citizens recollect media frames in their social networks. Focusing on
the case of episodic and thematic frames, the study tests this model. It introduces a novel research design:
implementing the children’s game ‘Telephone’ in consecutive experimental online surveys fielded to
nationally representative samples. This design helps gauge the reliability of transmission and the degree of
persuasiveness in actual chains of transmission.
Kim, M.J., & Park, H. W. (2012). Measuring Twitter-Based Political Participat...Han Woo PARK
Kim, M.J., & Park, H. W. (2012). Measuring Twitter-Based Political Participation and Deliberation in the South Korean Context by Using Social Network and Triple Helix Indicators. Scientometrics. 90 (1), 121-140.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11192-011-0508-5#page-1
This document provides a literature review and background on a study examining factors influencing the political participation of students at the University of Johannesburg. It discusses the following key points in 3 sentences:
The study aims to understand why political participation has declined among South African youth by examining how students' demographic characteristics and perceptions of the ruling ANC party influence their participation. The literature review covers political participation in general, and how race, class, and perceptions of the ANC have been found to shape political involvement. The document provides context on the study which used a survey to quantitatively measure how factors like race, class, and views of government affect the political participation of students at the University of Johannesburg.
This document discusses how consumer behavior research could contribute to the public relations research agenda over the next decade by providing insights into individual behaviors. It identifies five areas where consumer research may be applicable: 1) message processing, 2) decision-making, 3) the influence of affect, 4) organizational-consumer relationships, and 5) consumer action behaviors. The document argues that while public relations deals with many types of audiences, these groups are made up of individuals who interact with organizations in exchange relationships similar to consumers. Insights from consumer behavior's focus on understanding individuals could help address gaps in public relations research on how communications influence behavior at the individual level.
Policy article review please answer the following questions regaramit657720
This document discusses the concept of "the social" in social media. It explores how the meaning of "social" has evolved from early notions of computer networking facilitating collaboration, to today's emphasis on loosely connected individuals in networks. Some key points discussed include:
- Jean Baudrillard's theory that the social has disappeared and imploded into the media.
- Whether social media interactions could spill over into real-world organizing or if they primarily serve individual entertainment and marketing.
- Theorists like Hardt and Negri who see social media as reinforcing repression rather than contestation of forces, though its productive social aspects are equally important.
- How the social now manifests itself through networked practices and
This paper presents the results of a new monitoring project of the US presidential elections with the aim of establishing computer-based tools to track in real time the popularity or awareness of candidates. The designed and developed innovative methods allow us to extract the frequency of queries sent to numerous search engines by US Internet users. Based on these data, this paper demonstrates that Trump was more frequently searched than the Democratic candidates, either Hillary Clinton in 2016 or Joe Biden in 2020. When analyzing the topics, it is observed that in 2020 the US users had shown a remarkable interest in two subjects, namely, Coronavirus and Jobs (unemployment). Interest for other topics such as Education or Healthcare were less pronounced while issues such as Immigration were given even less attention by users. Finally, some “flame” topics such as Black Lives Matter (2020) and Gun Control (2016) appear to be very popular for a few weeks before returning to a low level of interest. When analyzing tweets sent by candidates during the 2020 campaign, one can observe that Trump was focused mainly on Jobs and on Riots, announcing what would happen if Democrats took power. To these negative ads, Biden answered by putting forward moral values (e.g., love, honesty) and political symbols (e.g., democracy, rights) and by underlying the failure of the current administration in resolving the pandemic situation.
This document provides a critical analysis of Erik Tancorov's research paper on the challenges faced by gender non-conforming students and their coping mechanisms. The analysis assess Tancorov's paper in terms of paradigm, genre, conceptual framework, research question, literature review, and methodology. It finds that Tancorov takes a social constructivist paradigm and uses a case study genre. While his research question and literature review are relevant, his methodology could be strengthened by incorporating additional data sources. The analysis concludes that explicitly stating the social constructivist paradigm and emphasizing queer identity development through a critical theory lens could enhance the effectiveness of Tancorov's study.
This document is a thesis proposal by Megan Lehman for an honors thesis at an unnamed university. The thesis will analyze the evolution of the "feminine style" of political rhetoric used by female politicians from different parties. It will compare the rhetoric of former Texas governor Ann Richards, a liberal, to that of conservative politicians Sarah Palin, Michele Bachmann, and Joni Ernst. The proposal provides background on previous research defining the feminine style and how it has traditionally been associated with liberal feminists. It outlines how the thesis will analyze similarities and differences in how these politicians used humor, personal anecdotes, and references to motherhood in their rhetoric.
This document discusses new media and its impact on priests and religious. It begins by introducing new media such as cell phones and how they have become integral parts of people's lives, especially young people. It then discusses how priests and religious have historically been pioneers in communication but are now lagging in adopting new media. The document provides an overview of different types of communication including mass, intrapersonal, interpersonal communication. It also discusses concepts relevant to interpersonal communication such as conversation, speech acts, communication competence, self-disclosure, and gender differences in communication styles. It emphasizes that new media and social networks have brought about major changes and will continue shaping communication in the future.
This document discusses factors that influence individual behavior. It describes needs, motives, goals, values, beliefs, attitudes, perception, personality and motivation as key determinants of behavior. It provides details about each factor, including how they are formed and how they shape individual actions and responses to internal and external stimuli. Personality is influenced by heredity, environment, and situational factors. Key aspects of personality discussed are locus of control, Machiavellianism, self-esteem, self-monitoring, risk-taking, and Type A vs Type B.
Five factor model of personality and transformational leadershipShafiq Khan
This study examined the relationship between personality traits and transformational leadership behavior. It hypothesized that extraversion and agreeableness would positively predict transformational leadership, while neuroticism would negatively predict it. Openness to experience was also expected to positively correlate with transformational leadership. Data from over 200 organizations revealed extraversion and agreeableness did positively predict transformational leadership. Neuroticism and conscientiousness were unrelated. Transformational leadership also positively predicted several outcomes reflecting leader effectiveness when controlling for transactional leadership.
This document discusses the foundations of individual behavior and abilities. It outlines different types of abilities including intellectual, physical, and biographical characteristics. It also covers learning theories such as classical conditioning, operant conditioning, and social learning. Different methods for shaping behavior are also mentioned, including positive reinforcement, negative reinforcement, punishment, and extinction.
This document discusses individual behavior in organizations. It presents an integrated model of human cognition that explains how stimuli are processed and turned into behaviors. Cognition includes processes like perception, memory, problem-solving, and decision-making. Both rational and emotional thinking influence behaviors. Experiences can become stable over time or continue evolving. The relationship between managers and subordinates is bidirectional - they both evaluate each other, and behavioral congruence leads to better outcomes. Factors like abilities, gender, race, and perception shape individual behaviors and how people are perceived.
This document discusses factors that influence individual behavior, including personal, environmental, and organizational factors. Personal factors comprise biographical characteristics like age, gender, and intelligence as well as learned characteristics such as personality, perception, attitudes, and values. Environmental factors refer to economic, socio-cultural, political, and legal influences from outside the individual. Organizational factors impacting behavior are related to the work environment, including physical facilities, structure and leadership within the organization, and its reward system. In conclusion, the document states that behavior can be considered an input-output system influenced by goals and the interplay of these various internal and external determinants.
The document discusses several key aspects of individual behavior in organizations:
1) It examines the basic nature of the individual-organization relationship and psychological contracts that resemble formal agreements.
2) It explores the importance of managing the person-job fit and addressing individual differences in personality, traits, attitudes, and perceptions.
3) It outlines several models for understanding personality, including the Big Five framework and Myers-Briggs, and looks at the influence of traits like emotional intelligence on workplace behavior.
The document discusses various factors that influence individual behavior, including personal factors like age, gender, experience and abilities; environmental factors in the economic, social and political environment; and organizational factors within the workplace like physical facilities, leadership, and reward systems. It provides details on how each of these biographical, learned, environmental, and organizational factors can shape an individual's behavior and performance.
This document discusses individual behavior and its influencing factors. It states that individual behavior is a combination of responses to internal and external stimuli. Kurt Lewin's field theory is discussed, which says behavior is a function of the person and their environment. Inherited characteristics like age, gender and intelligence as well as learned characteristics like values, attitudes and personality shape individual behavior. Behavior can change through learning via processes like conditioning, education and manipulation of rewards. The relationship between individual behavior and organizational support/performance is also covered.
The document discusses several key aspects of individual behavior:
1. Individual behavior is influenced by both internal factors like personality and external environmental factors.
2. There are many theories that seek to explain personality, including trait theory, psychoanalytic theory, humanistic theory, and social-cognitive approaches.
3. Personality is commonly measured using methods like questionnaires, interviews, case histories, observations, and projective tests. Core personality attributes like locus of control can influence behaviors in organizational settings.
This document summarizes research on the relationship between public opinion and the creation of public policy. It discusses models of how public opinion can influence policymakers through electoral pressure, political parties, and interest groups. However, policymakers may also create policy based on their own beliefs rather than public opinion. Studies have found the relationship between public opinion and policy varies by issue and can be affected by the intensity and breadth of public views. Larger and sustained shifts in salient issues are more likely to influence policy changes.
1 Voters’ Consumption of General Elections in Transitio.docxoswald1horne84988
The document discusses the development and validation of a scale to identify key factors reflecting voting habits and patterns in general elections in transitioning economies, using Ghana as a case study. It involved focus groups, interviews, literature review and a large survey. An initial pool of 75 statements regarding reasons for voting was reduced to 45 after removing duplicates and ambiguous statements. These 45 items formed the questionnaire used in a survey to collect data and further refine the scale, with the goal of developing a typology of general election voting patterns.
Oligarchy rules democracy: Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Int...Sadanand Patwardhan
Each of four theoretical traditions in the study of American politics – which can be characterized as theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy, Economic Elite Domination, and two types of interest group pluralism, Majoritarian Pluralism and Biased Pluralism – offers different predictions about which sets of actors have how much influence over public policy: average citizens; economic elites; and organized interest groups, mass-based or business-oriented. A great deal of empirical research speaks to the policy influence of one or another set of actors, but until recently it has not been possible to test these contrasting theoretical predictions against each other within a single statistical model. This paper reports on an effort to do so, using a unique data set that includes measures of the key variables for 1,779 policy issues. Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism. The study is by Martin Gilens, Princeton University and Benjamin I. Page, Northwestern University.
The assignment is covering week 12 and week 13 materials.Week 1.docxAASTHA76
The assignment is covering week 12 and week 13 materials.
Week 12: Static and flexible budgets.
Week 13: Standard costs and variance analysis
COST ACCOUNTING
ACCT 301
ASSIGNMENT 4
1. You are required to prepare a Direct Material Budget for the second quarter (April to June) by considering a manufacturing company operating in Saudi Arabia as a sample study.
2. You are required to prepare the Sales price variance and Revenue sales quantity variance by taking any of your choice Saudi based company and suggest the suitable reasons for the variances.
3. You are required to allot the support department cost to operations department by taking any Saudi based operating company.
4005737.txt
#4005737 Topic: evaluate how social science theories explain changes of voting behaviour over time.
Number of Pages: 5 (Double Spaced)
Number of sources: 3
Writing Style: APA
Type of document: Essay
Academic Level:Undergraduate
Category: Sociology
Language Style: English (U.K.)
Order Instructions:
once its been assigned to the writer, i will email the sources
please pay close attention to referencing.
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Order_Files_4005737_1.pdf
Chapter 7
Enacting elections
Richard Heffernan
1 Introduction 271
1.1 Structure of the chapter 274
1.2 Aims of the chapter 274
2 Collecting and generating evidence about elections 276
2.1 Social science and general elections in the UK 278
3 Explaining participation and non-participation in
elections 282
3.1 Explaining turnout in elections 284
4 Social science theories of voting decisions 289
4.1 The class-based theory: a sociological explanation
of voting 290
4.2 The party-identification theory: from a sociological to a
social-psychological explanation of voting 292
4.3 The valence-politics theory: an issue-based explanation
of voting 294
4.4 Description and understanding in the evaluation of
theories of voting 297
5 Enacting elections: informing and shaping public
debate 300
6 Conclusion: making sense of participation 303
6.1 Chapter summary 303
References 305
1 Introduction
1 Introduction
This chapter introduces the idea that social science not only describes
and understands social worlds, but it also helps to enact them – by
seeking to inform public debates and policy making, social science helps
to shape the ways in which processes and practices work. The chapter
explores this idea by using the example of how social science
investigates one particular type of participation; that is, participation as a
citizen in elections. Voting is often thought of as a basic form of
participation in the political life of the communities where people live.
Voting in an election is a means by .
A Qualitative Study Of Letters To President Kennedy From Persons With Mental ...Andrew Parish
This document discusses a study that analyzed letters sent to President John F. Kennedy regarding mental health policy during the early 1960s. The researchers used thematic analysis to identify themes in the letters. They then represented the data in three poetic forms: free verse, pantoum, and tanka. The goal was to give voice to the experiences of mental health consumers and their families in a concise yet emotionally impactful way to influence policy. The research poem is presented as a tool for qualitative social research that can preserve lived experiences while compressing dense data for easier consumption by policymakers.
Democratization, media and elections: Electoral reform in MexicoIbero Posgrados
This document discusses electoral reform and media in Mexico. It provides context on theories of media systems and their relationship to democracy. Specifically, it analyzes Mexico's media system, which exhibits characteristics of the "Polarized Pluralist Model" with high politicization, state intervention in media, and unequal public information consumption dividing the politically active from inactive. The document also discusses how electoral campaigns have become increasingly media-dependent, adapting to entertainment-focused media formats that can simplify issues.
The rise of nationalismIntroduction The rise of nationa.docxoreo10
The rise of nationalism
Introduction
The rise of nationalism poses a threat to globalization and the set of values that the international community has sought to develop in the past. The election of President Donald Trump and Brexit threatened the neoliberal agenda that has promoted free enterprise and globalization. Understanding the rise of nationalism provides an effective instrument for identifying effective intervention measures.
Comments : See my comments on the document. Please address the hypothesis comment and resubmit the hypothesis
Research Question
· What has caused the resurgence of nationalism?
Hypothesis
The examination of rising populism and nationalism in different parts of the world is expected to demonstrate that the rise of inequality due to neoliberalism is responsible for the push for countries to retreat from the world stage. An examination of Brexit, the election of President Donald Trump and the resurgence of nationalist parties across Europe will demonstrate that the intersection of globalization and technology has contributed to create opportunities for only a small segment of the global population. In light of this hypothesis, it is expected that the path forward lie in redesigning the global economic system to promote shared prosperity in the world. Comment by angela parham: Your hypothesis should be something that you can actually test, what's called a testable hypothesis. In other words, you need to be able to measure both "what you do" and "what will happen." Most of the time a hypothesis is written like this: "If _____[I do this] _____, then _____[this]_____ will happen." Your hypothesis should always explain what you expect to happen during the course of your research.
Data collection
Qualitative research will be used in this study due to the need to synthesize existing literature on the subject and the perspectives of stakeholders in the society. The exploratory research approach will enable the researcher to find effective answers for the research questions (Jamshed, 2014). In particular, it will highlight the underlying reasons, motivations and causes of the rise in the nationalist movement in the modern society. Qualitative research is used to identify trends in thought and phenomena (Jamshed, 2014). Survey research and focus groups will be used to collect data on the subject. The survey research will include both semi-structured and structured questions that will be administered online. Purposive sampling will be used to ensure that the participants are drawn from different social groups. In addition, focus groups will be used to have an in-depth discussion with different stakeholders on the rise of nationalism. The data that will be collected will be analyzed in conjunction with the existing literature (Jamshed, 2014). The approach will enable the researcher to contextualize the insights that will be drawn from the data collection process. Comment by angela parham: ...
This document provides an introduction to the study guide for the course "Comparative Political Systems" for MA Political Science students at the University of Calicut School of Distance Education. It outlines the 7 modules that will be covered in the course, including the Nature, Evolution and Scope of Comparative Politics, Theories of Comparative Politics, Federalism and Constitutionalism, functions of government, interest groups and party systems, bureaucracy, and a comparative analysis of political systems in the UK, USA, France, Russia, and China. It also lists the authors who prepared and reviewed the material. The course uses a comparative approach to analyze different countries' political institutions and processes.
Comparing Media Systems and Political CommunicationsCarolina Matos
This document outlines the key concepts and theories for comparative media studies, including Hallin and Mancini's three models of media systems (Liberal, Democratic Corporatist, and Polarized Pluralist), Siebert, Peterson and Schramm's four theories of the press, and the importance and challenges of comparative political communication research. It also provides the required readings and discusses dimensions for analyzing and comparing media systems across countries.
Different models of issue voting in britainAnurag Gangal
This document discusses various models of issue voting and how they explain voting behavior in recent British elections. It summarizes the key models including the Michigan Model, Clarke's proximity model, valence voting model, and position issue model. It analyzes how these models have helped understand factors like party alignments, issue salience, economic conditions, and leadership images that influence how British voters make choices. However, it also notes limitations of these models in fully capturing an increasingly disengaged electorate and failures to consider strategic versus sincere voting behavior with multiple candidates.
Political Parties and Interest GroupsPolitical parties are.docxheathmirella
Political Parties and Interest Groups
Political parties are groups of individuals who attempt to influence government policy through the election of their selected candidates. These candidates must answer the philosophical question, "Who have I been elected to serve?" Should their primary loyalty be to the party that helped get them elected or to the constituents they were elected to serve? At the same time, interest groups seek to influence elected officials and, ultimately, public policy. Interest groups are organizations of individuals with shared goals who try to influence public policy through, for example, lobbying, letter writing, grass roots campaigns, and endorsement of elected officials for example. Common types of interest groups are economic groups, social policy or ideologically based groups, public interest groups, and labor unions.
To prepare for this Discussion:
Review the article, "Direct Democracy and Political Parties in America." Consider the origins of direct democracy in America and how it has affected American political parties.
Review the article, "Challenges to the American Two-Party System: Evidence From the 1968, 1980, 1992, and 1996 Presidential Elections." Consider the stability of the two-party system in the United States. Think about how third parties can affect elected officials and interest groups.
Review the article, "The Relationship Between Political Parties and Interest Groups: Explaining Patterns of PAC Contributions to Candidates for Congress" to explore how interest groups influence political parties.
Think about the influence of political parties on elected officials.
Consider the influence of interest groups.
With these thoughts in mind:
By Thursday 3-1-18 post a 500-word
explanation of whether elected officials with a party affiliation should be more loyal to their political party or to the constituents they are elected to serve. Then explain the influence of interest groups on political parties and elections.
Be sure to support your postings and responses with specific references to the Learning Resources.
...
The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behavior and Public Opinion.pdfMertYazgan4
This document provides an overview and introduction to The Routledge Handbook of Elections, Voting Behavior and Public Opinion. It describes the book as an authoritative reference text covering key developments and state-of-the-art research in the fields of electoral research, public opinion, and voting behavior. The handbook includes advanced overviews and debates across different approaches within these subfields. It also brings geographical scope and depth through comparative chapters drawing on global examples.
This document summarizes a study on the impact of Twitter use on the perceived credibility of 2016 US presidential candidates. It provides background on rhetoric, persuasion, and credibility in politics. Specifically, it discusses Aristotle's modes of persuasion (pathos, logos, ethos) and how they can impact a politician's credibility. The study examined how candidates' tweets may have influenced voters' opinions according to these persuasion modes. It reviewed literature on social media and politics, finding that Twitter has become an important campaign tool. The researcher surveyed 170 subjects on their views of different candidates' credibility, finding that Bernie Sanders was viewed as one of the most credible.
DIVISIONS OF POLITICAL SCIENCE PRESENTATIONrtuppil
The document discusses several key aspects of public policy. It defines public policy as laws, guidelines and actions decided by governments to benefit the public. It notes that public policy plays a crucial role in governing and forming societal principles. Examples of types of public policy discussed include distributive, redistributive, regulatory, constituent and substantive policies. Distributive policies focus on solving societal issues while redistributive policies redistribute resources. Regulatory policies define legal boundaries and constituent policies relate to government structure.
Social Policy Responsiveness in Developed DemocraciesAu.docxgertrudebellgrove
Social Policy Responsiveness in Developed Democracies
Author(s): Clem Brooks and Jeff Manza
Source: American Sociological Review, Vol. 71, No. 3 (Jun., 2006), pp. 474-494
Published by: American Sociological Association
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Social Policy Responsiveness
in Developed Democracies
Clem Brooks
Indiana University, Bloomington
Jeff Manza
Northwestern University
Do mass policy preferences influence the policy output of welfare states in developed
democracies? This is an important issue for welfare state theory and research, and this
article presents an analysis that builds from analytical innovations developed in the
emerging literature on linkages between mass opinion and public policy. The authors
analyze a new dataset combining a measure of social policy preferences with data on
welfare state spending, alongside controls for established causal factors behind social
policy-making. The analysis provides evidence that policy preferences exert a significant
influence over welfare state output. Guided also by statistical tests for endogeneity, the
authors find that cross-national differences in the level of policy preferences help to
account for a portion of the differences among social, Christian, and liberal welfare state
regimes. The results have implications for developing fruitful connections between
welfare state scholarship, comparative opinion research, and recent opinion/policy
studies.
Do mass policy preferences influence the
size and scope of social policy output in
democracies? Are cross-national differences in
the level of policy preferences a factor behind
comparative differences in developed welfare
states? These questions are fundamental ones for
empirical democratic theory, as the growth of
Direct correspondence to Clem Brooks,
Department of Sociology, Indiana University, 1020
E. Kirkwood Ave., Bloomington, IN 47405-7103
([email protected]). Data were provided by the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, the Inter-University Consortium for
Political and Social Research, and the Comparative
Welfare States Dataset was provided by Evelyne
Huber, Char ...
Social Work, Politics, and Social Policy Education ApplyingAlleneMcclendon878
Social Work, Politics, and Social Policy Education: Applying
a Multidimensional Framework of Power
Amy Krings , Vincent Fusaro , Kerri Leyda Nicoll, and Na Youn Lee
ABSTRACT
The call to promote social justice sets the social work profession in
a political context. In an effort to enhance social workers’ preparedness to
engage in political advocacy, this article calls on educators to integrate
a broad theoretical understanding of power into social policy curricula. We
suggest the use of a multidimensional conceptualization of power that
emphasizes mechanisms of decision making, agenda control, and attitude
formation. We then apply these mechanisms to demonstrate how two
prominent features of contemporary politics—party polarization and
racially biased attitudes—affect the ability of social workers to influence
policy. Finally, we suggest content that social work educators can integrate
to prepare future social workers to engage in strategic and effective social
justice advocacy.
ARTICLE HISTORY
Accepted: January 2018
As part of their broader mandate, codified in the National Association of Social Workers (2017)
Code of Ethics, social workers are called to advance social and economic justice by participating in
political action with, or on behalf of, disadvantaged groups. The goals of such action are broad
democratic participation, a fair distribution of power and resources, and an equitable distribution of
opportunities (Reisch & Garvin, 2016). To achieve these goals, social workers must go beyond an
analysis of how existing policies reinforce or reduce social problems to recognize and strategically
engage with the power embedded in political processes themselves. This power not only influences
how problems are addressed or ignored but also how they are constructed and understood. Thus, to
be effective practitioners and change agents, it is necessary for social workers to “see power as central
to understanding and addressing social problems and human needs” (Fisher, 1995, p. 196).
At its inception, the social work profession emerged as a leader in shaping policies and programs
that improved the health and well-being of disadvantaged people and families. Social workers played
key roles in policy areas such as aid to families, Social Security, the juvenile court system, minimum
wage, and unemployment insurance (Axinn & Stern, 2012). Over time, external pressures, including
austerity-driven policies that emphasize market-based approaches to social service delivery and the
reduction of the social safety net, have limited the range of microlevel interventions and margin-
alized mezzo- and macrolevel community and policy practice (Abramovitz & Sherraden, 2016;
Reisch, 2000). Consequently, many social work educators have expressed concern that the profession
has become increasingly depoliticized and decontextualized by focusing disproportionately on
individual interventions at the expense of systematic interventions that could help individuals an ...
This document summarizes a research paper about hate crimes and their impact on communities. It discusses the researcher, Ryan Callahan, and his background in criminal justice. It then summarizes the abstract, which discusses the purpose of examining the prevalence of hate crimes and their greater negative impact compared to other crimes. Finally, it reviews two studies from the literature that provide context on the psychological effects of hate crimes and factors influencing negative attitudes towards LGBT individuals.
This document provides a lesson plan for teaching students about the visual grammar of film. The lesson introduces students to key film terminology by having them manipulate a paper "camera" to understand different shots and angles. Students then analyze film clips, identifying cinematic elements like shots and lighting. A second part of the lesson focuses on theatrical elements in film like costumes, sets and acting through analysis of additional clips. Surveys and note-taking sheets help students practice identifying and explaining the purpose of visual elements in film.
The News Director leads and manages all aspects of a news department, including planning news coverage, assigning stories, editing reports, and overseeing personnel and budgets. They are responsible for maintaining high journalistic standards and ethical practices. Key duties include developing strategies to cover future events, responding to breaking news, and acting as a liaison with internal and external groups. The Assistant News Director, Managing Editor, and other roles assist the News Director in the daily operations and management of the newsroom.
The document provides an overview of careers in television, describing various departments and roles within a television station. It discusses positions in administration, sales and marketing, traffic, research, news, creative services, public relations, programming, and engineering. The guide offers information on career paths, responsibilities, and qualifications for each role.
This document summarizes the roles of key personnel involved in TV production, categorizing them as either above-the-line or below-the-line. Above-the-line personnel such as producers, directors, writers, and actors are involved in creative aspects and have negotiable salaries. Below-the-line personnel such as camera operators and audio technicians are involved in technical aspects and have fixed salaries based on union contracts. It then provides brief descriptions of the roles and responsibilities of 11 common above-the-line personnel positions.
The document provides guidelines for writing an effective editorial. An editorial presents an opinion on a newsworthy issue and aims to influence public opinion. It should have an introduction, body, and conclusion like a news story. The body should objectively explain the issue, include opposing viewpoints, and deliver the writer's opinion in a professional manner. It should offer alternative solutions and have a concise concluding statement that summarizes the opinion. Effective editorials explain or interpret issues, criticize with proposed solutions, persuade readers to take action, or praise worthy people or efforts.
The election results in five Indian states were stunning and a major blow to the Congress party. Some key outcomes:
1) In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party led by Mulayam Singh and Akhilesh Yadav won a majority, pushing the BSP into second place and BJP and Congress further behind.
2) In Punjab, the incumbent Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP alliance was the first in 46 years to retain power, defeating anti-incumbency trends.
3) The BJP emerged as the largest party in both Goa and Uttarakhand, though Uttarakhand may have a hung assembly.
4) Only
The document details five key concepts for designing newspaper pages: balance, contrast, rhythm, unity, and harmony. [1] Balance aims to evenly distribute different page elements like headlines, stories, and pictures. [2] Contrast separates elements using techniques like varying type, headlines, white space, and color. [3] Rhythm guides the reader's eye across the page by staggering elements.
This document provides a glossary of common newspaper terms from A to Y, defining terms related to different parts and sections of newspapers, job roles, the writing and editing process, and more. Key terms defined include ads, bylines, captions, editorials, headlines, leads, op-ed pages, proofs, sources, and wire services. The glossary offers concise explanations to build understanding of newspaper terminology.
The documentaries follows two "documentaries" being filmed by neighbors about a man and woman who have gone crazy. The man, Frank, films himself pretending to rob a house but keeps injuring himself. The woman, Clarice, thinks she needs to protect her home from robbers and keeps her daughter locked inside, falling and injuring herself. Their crazy behavior is explained by the neighbors - Frank wore a robber mask on Halloween and got stuck in the door while Clarice's husband never returned and she refuses to leave home.
New media refers to digital media that combines words, visuals, sound, and other elements. It includes websites that provide information through a combination of multimedia rather than just text. Mrs. Madhavan is worried that her son Aditya spends all day on the computer and not studying, but her neighbor Anjali explains that new media can enhance learning by making it more engaging through interactive games and videos in addition to textbooks. While new media has limitations and risks if overused, it provides opportunities to make education more interesting when used appropriately alongside traditional media like books.
This document is a thesis submitted to the Graduate School of The University of Texas at Arlington by Daniel Fremon Woodward in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Communication. The thesis examines how fantasy sports content has evolved in the mass media. It uses qualitative interviews to explore themes of awareness, interest, testing, adoption, use, benefits, and future projections of fantasy sports across different media such as print, broadcasting, and the internet. The results suggest fantasy sports content is more prevalent in mass media now than ever before, with different media using it in ways that fit their existing strategies. The internet is seen as the most advantageous medium for fantasy-related content.
The document provides a summary and critique of the transmission model of communication developed by Shannon and Weaver in 1949. It outlines the key elements of their model, which conceptualizes communication as involving an information source, transmitter, receiver, and destination. However, the document argues this model has many weaknesses, such as being too simplistic, linear, focused on content over meaning, and neglecting context, relationships, purposes, and the interpretive role of receivers. While the model was influential, it provides a misleading representation of human communication.
This document provides an overview of how to write a documentary script. It discusses that documentary scripts are different from fiction scripts as they deal with facts rather than fiction. It also notes that documentary scripts should be written visually so that everything seen on screen can be grounded in accuracy. The document outlines the two main stages of documentary scriptwriting - the pre-shoot or shooting script created before filming begins to provide a conceptual map, and the post-shoot script finalized after filming to weave all audiovisual elements into a cinematic story. Research is emphasized as critical for documentary scripts.
Media refers to mass communication technologies used to reach large audiences. Cultural differences exist in how people communicate verbally and nonverbally across cultures. Western culture emphasizes individualism while Eastern cultures focus more on groups. Modern media globalization has led to concerns about cultural imperialism and homogenization, though it also enables hybridization as local cultures adapt imported media. The portrayal of women, adolescents, and other groups in media impacts cultural norms around issues like body image, relationships, and sexuality. Understanding cultural contexts is important for effective intercultural communication in our increasingly connected world.
This article analyzes and critiques the relationship between the media and the military during times of war. It argues that embedded reporting in Iraq magnifies biases in journalism and leads to an unprecedented collaboration between the media and military that allows for pro-war propaganda disguised as objective reporting. While embedded reporting aims to provide in-depth coverage of the war, it limits journalists' scope and filters information through military and editorial perspectives, compromising objectivity. This raises questions about whether embedded reporting provides an accurate portrayal of war or instead shapes public opinion and perceptions in a way that distracts from and desensitizes the realities of conflict.
A floor manager is responsible for overseeing production on a studio floor and acts as a liaison between the director and on-air talent. Key duties include communicating cues and instructions from the director to talent using standardized hand signals, ensuring the timely flow of a program, and addressing any issues on the studio floor. The floor manager must be able to remain calm under pressure, multi-task, and skillfully coordinate the many moving parts of a live production.
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1. 145
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
comunicação e ciência s empresariais
Theoretical models of voting behaviour 1
Rui Antunes
Escola Superior de Educação - Instituto Politécnico de Coimbra
Abstract
This article reviews the main theoretical models that explain the electoral behavior
— sociological model of voting behavior, psychosocial model of voting behavior and
rational choice theory —, stressing the continuity and theoretical complementarity
between them. It also proposes a reconceptualization of the concept of partisanship in
order to integrate all relevant contributions of the three main models of voting behavior
in a holistic approach to electoral behavior.
Key-words
Electoral behavior, Partisanship, Self-categorization, Voting
Resumo
Neste artigo analisam-se os principais modelos teóricos utilizados para explicitar
o comportamento eleitoral — modelo sociológico do comportamento eleitoral, modelo
psicossocial do comportamento eleitoral e a teoria da escolha racional —, acentuando
a continuidade e a complementaridade teórica que os une. Propõe-se também uma
reconceptualização do conceito de partidarismo, a fim de integrar, em uma abordagem
holística para o comportamento eleitoral, todas as contribuições relevantes dos três
principais modelos de comportamento eleitoral.
Palavras-chave
Comportamento eleitoral, Identificação partidária, Auto-categorização, Voto146
exedra • nº 4 • 2010
The scientific study of voting behavior is marked by three major research schools:
the sociological model, often identified as School of Columbia, with the main reference
in Applied Bureau of Social Research of Columbia University, whose work begins with
the publication of the book The People’s Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944)
and focuses on the influences of social factors;The psychosocial model, also identified as
School of Michigan, which has its major reference in the work of Campbell, Converse,
Miller and Stokes (1960) —The American Voter — and assumes that party identification is
the main factor behind the behavior of voters; and rational choice theory, also referred
to as a model of economic voting, or even as School of Rochester, whose landmark work
is the work of Anthony Downs (1957) — An Economic Theory of Democracy — and that
puts emphasis on variables such as rationality, choice, uncertainty and information.
In this article we present the main theoretical assumptions of these three models,
emphasizing the continuity and theoretical complementarity linking the psychosocial
model to sociological model and the rational choice theory.
1 - Sociological model of voting behavior
The theoretical assumptions of the sociological model of voting behavior are defined
in three essential works: The People’s Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944),
Voting (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee, 1954) and Personal Influence (Katz & Lazarsfeld,
2. 1955). The research conducted by Lazarsfeld et al. (1944) at Ohio State (Erie County),
using questionnaire as a technique of investigation for the first time in the study of a
U.S. presidential election — one which opposed Franklin Roosevelt to Wendell Willkie in
1940 — cuts away from the type methodological approach that hitherto characterized the
study of voting behavior (Barnes & Kaase, 1979). Paul Lazarsfeld, whose previous interests
had focused on the study of the psychological mechanisms involved in the processes of
choice and in the effects of publicity, advertising and mass media on consumer behavior
had two main objectives in this research: to study the effects of exposure to the media,
that is, to know how voters arrive at their decisions and the role of media in this process;
and to test a new methodology of successive interviews with a panel of subjects and
a control group (Rossi, 1964). The study, whose report was published under the title
The People’s Choice (Lazarsfeld, Berelson, & Gaudet, 1944), begins by characterizing the
supporters of the two main political parties in the U.S. using a panel of 600 subjects who
were interviewed seven times over the seven months of campaign, to then identify the
voters who changed their position during the campaign period, comparing three groups:
those who decided their vote before beginning the campaign, those whose decision was
taken during the party convention and those that decided their vote only at an advanced
stage of the campaign.147
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
The central hypothesis of Lazarsfeld et al. (1944) was that the act of voting is an
individual act, affected mainly by the personality of the voter and his exposure to the
media. The results, however, contradict the main thesis, suggesting that the effect of
the media in electoral decision was minimal and that the decisive influence was the
social groups to which they belonged. In the final two chapters of his book — “The
Political homogeneity of Social Groups” and “The Nature of Personal Influence” — the
focus is exactly on the theoretical elaboration of these conclusions, which are presented
as revealed by news research: “The significance of this area of political behavior was
highlighted by the study but further investigation is necessary to establish it more
firmly” “(Lazarsfeld et al., 1968, p. 69).
1.1 Political homogeneity of social groups
The main finding of Lazarsfeld et al. (1944) was that the majority of voters voted
according to their original political predisposition. Of the 600 subjects who were
included, only 54 changed their position throughout the process. The association
between electoral behavior and the social groups to which they belonged was so strong
that it was possible to explain the electoral choices using only the three factors that
defined the Index of Political Predisposition used in research: socio-economic status,
religion and area of residence.
There is a familiar adage in American folklore to the effect that a person is only what he
thinks he is, an adage which reflects the typically American notion of unlimited opportunity,
the tendency toward self-betterment, etc. Now we find that the reverse of the adage is true: a
person thinks, politically, as he is, socially. Social characteristics determine political preference.
(Lazarsfeld et al., 1968, p. 69)
The effect of conversion and modification of the voting option identified in the study
is primarily distributed among voters who were previously classified by investigators as
3. independent, i.e., those who had initial predispositions opposed to candidates —
crosspressures — which according to the authors, were mostly social in nature and linked
to divergent policy preferences associated with one or more social groups to which the
subjects belonged. However, contrary to initial expectations, these voters are persuaded
to vote for a candidate, not as the result of an analysis of the proposals submitted by each
candidate or the issues under discussion in the campaign but following pressure from
members of their community. As the authors write:
In short, the party changers — relatively, the people whose votes still remained to be
definitely determined during the last stages of the campaign, the people who could swing an
election during those last days — were, so to speak, available to the person who saw them 148
exedra • nº 4 • 2010
last before Election Day. The notion that people who switch parties during the campaign are
mainly the reasoned, thoughtful, conscientious people who were convinced by issues of the
election is just plain wrong. Actually, they were mainly just the opposite. (Lazarsfeld et al.,
1968, p. 69)
1.2 Activation, reinforcement and conversion
With regard specifically to the role of electoral campaigns and communication
processes associated with them, the study identifies three types of possible effects:
activation of the indifferent, strengthening the link to the political party, and conversion
of the undecided. It was found that the greatest impact of the campaign is focused
on voters who are already predisposed to vote for the candidate backed by this party,
strengthening and / or activating that prior predisposition. Only 8% of voters changed
their initial position following the election campaign: ““In sum, then, this is what the
campaign does: reinforcement (potential) 53%; activation 14%; reconversion 3%; partial
conversion 6%; conversion 8%; no effect 16%.”(Lazarsfeld et al.,1968, p.103). These results
do not mean, however, that the authors conclude that electoral campaigns are considered
useless. Its effect is not living up to initial expectations, since the role seems to be more
to solidify the cohesiveness of party supporters around their electoral proposals than to
convince voters of other parties to change their position. This result seems to be linked
to a phenomenon of selective attention of voters on the election campaign, which was
reflected in the fact that those who had more interest in politics and had already set his
option to vote are also those who paid more attention to the campaign on radio and in
newspapers: “In other words, the group which the campaign manager is presumably
most eager to reach — the as-yet undecided — is the very group which is less likely to
read or listen to his propaganda” (Lazarsfeld et al., 1968, p. 124).
But also with regard to the role of the election campaign, it was found that the
influence of social groups to which the individual belongs is crucial for the results,
since it identified a mediation process — starring members of those groups who were
committed to opinion leaders — between communication conveyed by mass media and
voters. This process was called two-step-flow of communication:
A special role in the network of personal relationships is played by the ‘opinion
leaders’. In Chapter V, we noted that they engaged in political discussion much
more than the rest of the respondents. But they reported that the formal media
were more effective as sources of influence than personal relationships. This
4. suggest that ideas often flow from radio and print to the opinion leaders and
from them to the less active sections of the population. (Lazarsfeld et al., 1968,
p. 151)149
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
These results clearly contradict the initial hypothesis that the act of voting is an
individual act. The relationship between social groups to which subjects belong, their
political choice and the decisive role of personal contacts in the definition of electoral
choices indicate that the decisions of voters are processes of group cohesion, rather than
individual acts: “In a way, the content of this chapter can be summarized by saying that people
vote, not only with their social group, but also for it” (Lazarsfeld et al., 1968, p. 148).
This first study, conducted in Erie County (Ohio), was criticized because it is a
study unsupported by previous theoretical options, which translated into explanations
constructed later to give intelligibility to the findings (Rossi, 1964). One example of these
explanations is the subsequent use of the concept of two-step-flow of communication in
this work that appears as a hypothesis developed to explain the role of opinion leaders
in mediating the communication flow between the media and voters. Lazarsfeld et al.
(1944) only refer to it for the first time in the last chapter of the book The People’s Choice
- titled “The Nature of Personal Influence” - by giving it only three short paragraphs.
The concept was subsequently developed by Katz and Lazarsfeld in “Personal Influence:
The Part Played by People in the Flow of Mass Communications” (1955), considered one
of the most influential works in research of mass communication, where the authors
reaffirmed and developed the idea that the subjects’ responses to media messages are
mediated through interpersonal relationships and their groups to which subjects belong,
and that some individuals act as opinion leaders, building and rebuilding the meaning of
the messages of media in their social circles.
1.3 Social transmission of political choices
The insufficiency of the study conducted in Erie County led these authors to
replicate it, with some changes, in the presidential elections of 1948, which opposed
Harry Truman, incumbent President, to Thomas Dewey, governor of New York. The
results were published by Berelson, Lazarsfeld and McPhee (1954) in “Voting: A Study
of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign”. As the authors themselves point out,
this research, now held in a small community in upstate New York — Elmira —, aimed
not only to be a result of the previous study, but also to be an opportunity to correct
problems pointed to the methodological and conceptual research conducted earlier. The
findings of this study, as in Erie County, indicate that (1) the social differentiation —
based on socio-economic status, religion, race and place of residence — is a precondition
for political dissent and subsequent electoral cleavage; (2) there are conditions of
transmissibility which ensure the maintenance and persistence of this differentiation
from generation to generation; (3) and that the conditions for greater social and physical
proximity between members of a group, as opposed to less closeness with members 150
exedra • nº 4 • 2010
of other groups, facilitates and maintains electoral cleavage. These three processes —
differentiation, transmission and contact — guarantees the social transmission and
political choices, as the authors have written: “In contemporary America these conditions
5. are best met in class, in ethnic and in ecological divisions of the population. They continue
to provide, then, the most durable social bases for political cleavage.” (Berelson, Lazarsfeld,
& Mcphee, 1954, p. 75).
The results again showed that the political predisposition of the subjects, established
on the basis of their socioeconomic status, race, religion, area of esidence, correlated
markedly with his voting option and even those subjects initially move away from this
initial position end, mostly, by “returning” to it. The electoral proposals that fit with
a dominant position in the social group of voters are more likely to materialize in the
voting choices of these voters at the end of the campaign. This return to the ‘natural’
position of the voters in their social group — explained by the fact that the subjects make
use of people from their social relationships to expose their doubts and ask for advice,
which leads them to obtain advice that leads back to electoral position of the majority of
their social group — is considered the most interesting psychological phenomenon, and
simultaneously the most relevant in the political point of view. The authors refer to this
psychological phenomenon as reactivation (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee, 1954).
1.4 Perception and political differentiation
Among the changes introduced by this second study, we emphasize the analysis of
the role of campaign themes that, in the initial study, was done only on basis of materials
produced by radio and press, and that now was the subject of a different methodological
approach, since the authors also evaluate the position and perception of the subjects in
relation to these issues and how they were treated by the two campaigns.
The analysis of this topic was done by dividing the campaign themes into two
types of information: position issues, focused on domestic policy, and political themes,
focused on international politics. The results showed a division among the subjects in
the evaluation of economic issues, based on socioeconomic status, party affiliation and
interest in elections, and a consensus in the evaluation of political issues. In the latter
group, Republicans and Democrats agreed among themselves in defining the important
campaign issues, as well as in some criteria used to evaluate candidates and had similar
expectations about future political events, but disagreed in the assessment of who the
best candidate to deliver the policies they agreed with (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee,
1954).
However, despite the importance attached to economic issues, the authors found 151
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
that only half of the subjects was in line with the position of his party in relation to
the economic proposals, though they tended to assess the position of their candidate
as being congruent with his and the opposing candidate’s as being contrary. Likewise,
the subjects tended not to perceive the differences in relation to their candidate or the
similarities with the candidate opponent. That is, the voters, while seeking to maintain
a consistency between their positions and the candidate they supported, did not solve
the inconsistencies by changing their voting option, but by changing their perception of
the candidate.
Under the increased pressures of a campaign, people have an increased tendency toward
consistency, in all relevant aspects. As times goes on as we compare materials collected early in
6. the campaign with those obtained at later stages, we find that people abandon deviant
opinions
on specific issues to agree with the position taken by their party (or at least to perceive such
agreement); (…) In 1948, focusing on primary groups, we found that disagreements between
friends and families disappear and make way for a homogeneity of attitude within various
social groups. The tendency for a “strong Gestalt” within individuals — and analogously
within groups — certainly receives support in our material (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & Mcphee,
1954, p. 285).
1.5 Democratic practice and theory
From the theoretical point of view the most relevant contribution of this second
study is the conceptualization of electoral behavior in a sociological model that attempts
to reconcile the assumptions of the democratic organization of society and the electoral
behavior of the subjects, which is considered to be in apparent contradiction with these
assumptions. The authors identify the political features of voters that we would expect
find in a democratic system — interest, discussion and motivation, knowledge, principles
and rationale — to conclude that, in reality, according to data from their investigations,
most subjects have no interest or motivation on matters of political nature: “(…) it is a
curious quality of voting behavior that the large numbers of people motivation is weak
if not almost absent” (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & Mcphee, 1954, p. 308); have a limited and
poor knowledge of political affairs: “He is supposed to know what the issues are, what
their story is, what the relevant facts are, what alternatives are proposed, what the party
stands for, what the likely consequences are. By such standards the vote falls short” (p.
308); have not decided their vote on the basis of principles: “many voters vote not for
principle in the usual sense but “for” a group to which they are attached — their group”
(p. 309); and do not support their electoral decisions on reason: “In short, it appears
that a sense of fitness is more striking feature of political preference than reason and
calculation (p. 311). 152
exedra • nº 4 • 2010
Against this backdrop in which voters do not seem to satisfy the conditions necessary
in a democratic regime, the authors argue that democracies have not collapsed and,
instead, have become stronger because the logic of a democracy works in an aggregate
and not individual level. If all voters had a high degree of interest and political motivation
that would also be reflected in greater division among voters in a climate of greater
political cleavage and antagonism that could endanger the system itself. Rather than
require individuals who are highly interested and motivated by political, democracy
needs that society is composed of heterogeneous groups to ensure the plurality of ideas
and political proposals (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee, 1954, p. 314).
1.6 Social cleavage
Although the work of Lazarsfeld and Berelson are associated with sociological models
of electoral behavior, it is important to note that the micro-sociological approach they
use in their research identifies several processes of psychological nature, ranging from
perception, social identity and ingroup preference, through the use of Gestalt principles
to explain the propensity of voters to choose “good form” ― in this case, the “natural”
position of their social group ― which, though not theorized as such, are anticipations of
7. later psychosocial approaches . In fact, although these authors do not draw theoretical
relevant conclusions from a psychosocial point of view, opting instead for explanations
that emphasize the sociological approach, they pioneered the research generated by the
school of Michigan and what is known as psychosocial approach to voting behavior.
The extension and further development of the sociological model of voting
behavior, as such, are associated with the book “Political Man” (Lipset SM, 1960) and
the publication of “Party Systems and Voter Alignment: Cross-National Perspectives”
(Lipset & Rokkan, 1967) focused on development of the party system in Western Europe.
Unlike Lazarsfeld et al. (1944) and Berelson et al. (1954), Lipset and Rokkan (1967) start
from a historical and macro-sociological approach that understands the party system in
the countries of Western Europe as reflecting historical divisions with origins in national
revolution — divisions between center and periphery and state / church — and industrial
revolution — cleavages between urban / rural and capital / labor. These become important
political cleavages when social groups develop perceptions of these differences and, in
consequence, it becomes institutionalized in the political system (Manza & Brooks, 1999).
The link between social cleavages and political system is revealed when social divisions
are felt in three different levels: as empirical components rooted in the social structure,
as regulatory components that result in conflicting forms of social consciousness, and as
institutional components that are expressed in individual interactions or in interactions
between organizations and/or institutions (Bartolini & Mair, 1990). Deschouwer & 153
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
Luther (1999) separate everything that refers to different types of individual behavior
that results of the previous components from the institutional and organizational
component, which they see as a fourth component — behavioral — and includes, among
other examples, the voting behavior.
The sociological model has, however, limitations in explaining the variations that
occur in voting due economic factors specific to each election. Social factors may explain
the long-term stability of voting behavior, but do not explain the variations that occur in
the behavior of voters in different elections, just as they do not explain why individuals
who belong to certain social groups vote according to what one would expect of individuals
belonging to different social groups. Although there are attempts to overcome these
difficulties within the sociological approach, for example investigations that argue that
the study of voting behavior should not be done from the voter’s perspective but valuing
contextual factors as the political programs of parties, the role of media, the countries’
economic structure and the context in which the relationship between voters and parties
becomes stronger (Curtice, 2002; van der Eijk, 2002; van der Eijk, Franklin & Oppenhuis,
1996; Glasgow & Alvarez, 2005 Johnson, Shively, & Stein, 2002; Wright, 1977). These
limitations have led to the Michigan psychosocial model that attempts to overcome them
using the concept of partisanship, with which it seeks to link the influence of sociological
and historical long-term factors, identified in the sociological model, and the social and
political short-term factors that characterize each election.
2 Psychosocial model of voting behavior
The psychosocial model has its origin in studies conducted by the Survey Research
Centre at the University of Michigan during the 1948 U.S. presidential elections,
8. its results analyzed by Campbell and Kahn (1952) in The People Elect a President; the
elections of 1952’s report was presented by Campbell, Gurin and Miller (1954) in The
Voter Decides; and elections in 1956, where results, combined with those obtained in
previous investigations, have led to the book The American Voter, written by Campbell,
Converse Miller and Stokes (1960). These works mark the beginning of a long series of
studies conducted by the Survey Research Centre and more recently by the Center of
Political Studies at the University of Michigan, which extend to the present day, although
currently falling under American National Electoral Studies (ANES), investigations that
involve a greater variety of institutions, maintaining, however, the initial theoretical
basis. The questionnaires and databases of these investigations are references in most
election studies conducted in the United States of America.154
exedra • nº 4 • 2010
2.1 Partisanship
The central concept of this model of voting behavior is partisanship, which is designed
as a psychological affinity, stable and lasting relationship with a political party that does
not necessarily translate into a concrete link, namely registration, or consistently voting
and systematically militancy with this party:
In characterizing the relation of individual to party as a psychological identification
we invoke a concept that has played an important if somewhat varied role in psychological
theories of the relation of individual to individual or of individual to group. We use the concept
here to characterize the individual’s affective orientation to an important group-object in
his environment. Both reference group theory and small-group studies of influence have
converged upon the attracting or repelling quality of the group as the generalized dimension
most critical in defining the individual-group relationship, and it is this dimension that we
will call identification (Campbell, Converse, Miller, & Stokes, 1960, p. 121).
The notion of partisanship, introduced in the study of voting behavior by Campbell
et al. (1960), was influenced by the concept of reference group (Hyman & Singer, 1968)
and has similarities with the idea of anticipatory socialization introduced by Merton
and Kitt (1950) to define the situations in which individuals choose a reference group to
which they do not belong and begin to act according to what they perceive as the rules of
that group. According to these authors, partisanship is acquired through a socialization
process, influenced by the values and attitudes of family, colleagues and peers, a process
that Miller and Shanks (1996) considered similar to that which leads subjects to identify
with a religion. This emotional link the subject to “their” political party can be achieved
with varying degrees of involvement in a process analogous to what happens with the
connection of individuals to a religion, manifested in ways as different as going from
non-religious to deeply religious. In this perspective, partisanship is a genuine form of
social identification in which “citizens have an enduring sense of what sorts of people belong
to various parties and whether they identify with these social groups” (Green, Palmquist, &
Schickler, 2002, p. ix).
Notably, the model also does not match partisanship with the voter’s choice. This
separation between the psychological nature of partisanship and the objective nature
of voting behavior is reflected, in methodological terms, in the option of not measuring
this variable from the actual voting of the subject, but through their self-positioning:
9. “Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent,
or what?”, followed by another which asks the subject to classify the strength of this
identification: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a not very
strong (Republican, Democrat)?”. Those who classify themselves as Independents are also
asked whether, despite their independent status, they consider themselves close to any 155
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
of the parties “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or Democratic Party?”
(Campbell, Converse, Miller, & Stokes, 1960, p. 122).
In this perspective, partisanship is not seen as a variable that tells us directly and
unambiguously which is the vote option of an elector. Campbell et al. (1960) described
partisanship as a perceptual filter through which the voters appreciate that which is
favorable to the orientation of his party and ignore or devalue that which is unfavorable.
Taking into account that political life in democratic societies is almost exclusively
focused on parties and considering that the evaluation of policy proposals requires, in
most cases, knowledge and information that citizens do not have, partisanship becomes
then a central variable in the political experience of the subjects functioning as an
instrument of “reading” of the election and the candidates’ proposals.
2.2 Funnel of causality
The explanatory model of relations between the variables involved in the definition
of electoral behavior is called a funnel of causality. This metaphor represents the chain
of events that contributes to the vote of the subjects, distinguishing distal factors
(socio-economic and historical factors, values and attitudes and membership groups)
and proximal factors (issues, candidates, election campaign, political and economic
situation, the government action, influence of friends). At the entrance of the funnel
are the sociological and social characteristics that influence the next element of this
sequence that is partisanship. Partisanship has, in turn, a decisive role in evaluating
candidates, the issues, the incidents of the campaign that are reported in the media
and the conversations that voters have with family and friends about the election. The
output of this funnel is the vote. This scheme clarifies the central role of partisanship
as a result of the combination of dispositional and long-term factors and as a factor
moderating the effect of short-term variables on voting behavior.
To think of a funnel in this way greatly enlarges our explanatory chore, for in the ideal
case we want to take measurements that refer to states not at one cross section alone, but at
a great number. Each cross section contains all the elements that will successfully predict the
next, and so on, until we have arrived at the final act (Campbell et al., 1960).
Although the model encompasses all these factors, it focuses its attention on
the relationship of partisanship, candidates and issues and less on social factors and
communication systems (Niemi & Weisberg, 2001).156
exedra • nº 4 • 2010
2.3 Proximal and distal factors
Causal model outlined above shows that changes in long-term factors that can lead
to changes in party identification of voters. In general the factors considered by the
model are those the sociological approaches conceptualize as determinants of voting
behavior. According to Campbell et al. (1960) changes in party identification are rare
10. and occur as reactions to events of great impact. Study findings suggest that changes
in party identification occur at the individual level when there are adjustments in the
social status of the subjects (e.g., entry into an institution of higher education, marriage,
change of area of residence, change of job, etc..) or when changes occur in the broader
field of social and political organization, (e.g., the end of the fascist regime in Portugal,
entry into the European Union; the end of the Soviet Union, etc.). As we can see, in
both cases these changes are relatively rare and, although changes in the social status of
individuals occur in greater numbers and with more diligence, the effect on change in
partisanship is faster and has more electoral impact when they occur in the political and
/ or social structure, such as the repercussions of the end of the Soviet Union in electoral
expression of the communist parties of southern Europe.
If changes in social factors can produce long-term changes in partisanship, the
short-term factors are seen as just being able to change the electoral choice of subjects
in a given election, without affecting their partisanship (Campbell, Converse, Miller,
& Stokes, 1960, Green & Palmquist, 1990). The relationship between partisanship and
short-term factors is manifested through attitudes toward policy proposals, candidates
and group benefits (Harrop and Miller, 1987). However, while partisanship influences
the perception of situational variables, it is also possible that the proposals, the speech,
or the candidates are so totally against the expectations, values or interests of voters,
that this situation is unlikely to be shaped by this perceptual filter and bring the subject
to not vote or even vote for another party. According to the assumptions of the model,
this would not affect the partisanship that would continue, despite this circumstantial
disloyalty, to maintain their prior identification.
The role of partisanship has been, however, contested since its formulation in the
60s, not only based on difficulty in applying it to the electoral systems that are not
essentially bi-partisan, as is the case in most Western European countries (Budge, Crewe,
& Farlie, 1976) but especially with the argument that there is a progressive weakening
of the connection of individuals to political parties in the U.S. (Nie, Verba, & Petrocik,
1976, Stanley & Niemi, 1991; Stanley & Niemi, 2000) and in Europe (Crewe & Denver
1985; Dalton, 1984; Dalton, 2000; Dalton, Flanagan, & Beck, 1984, Schmitt & Holmberg,
1995), which calls into question the thesis of the stability of partisanship and points to
a progressive misalignment of voters in relation to political parties. The way the model 157
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
conceives the relationship between psychosocial factors and partisanship is challenged
by researchers who believe that the Michigan model overestimates the role of long-term
partisan loyalties (Dalton, Flanagan, & Beck, 1984; Dalton, 2000, Fiorina 1981; Franklin,
Mackie & Valen, 1992; Kiewiet, 1983; Wattenberg, 1994). In general, all these criticisms
of the psychosocial model focus on the difficulty that this theoretical approach shows
in explaining the reasons why some voters who identify with a party ― a process that has
an underlying emotional relationship in nature and consequently, loyalty is of crucial
importance ― vote for another party or to refrain from participating in an election. For
these researchers it is the proximal factors that play a decisive role in misalignment of
the voters and the consequent volatility that characterizes the Western democracies
since the early 1960s. In this perspective, voters adjust their connection to political
11. parties according to the evaluation they make, in every election, of economic conditions
and how the parties and their leaders deal with them. Party identification works, at
best, merely as a cognitive shortcut ― and not as a social identity ― that allows voters to
cope with the extra information required to review all proposals, without implying the
existence of an affective and emotional link between these voters and political parties.
These criticisms are, in general, presented by authors who argue that the explanation
of changes in voting choices of voters should be sought not through the use of a
psychosocial variable but by considering factors related to information processing and
the rationality of voters and the political and electoral system. In the following section
we present the theoretical model that led to these approaches.
3 Theory of rational choice
The theoretical background for an economic explanation of voting behavior has been
submitted by Anthony Downs (1957) work on “An Economic Theory of Democracy.”
This theory is commonly referred to as rational choice theory. This is an attempt to
explain electoral behavior taking as its starting point the work done within the political
economy by Kenneth Arrow (1951, 1986) that relate economic parameters ― resources,
goods and technology ― with a political outcome or choice. The premise is simple: if the
assumptions of rational choice are able to explain the market, then they can explain the
political functioning. It establishes a direct analogy between consumers and voters and
between enterprises and political parties. If companies seek to maximize profits and
consumers act to maximize the utility, we can, then, theorize in the sense that voters
seek to maximize the utility of their vote as the parties act to maximize electoral gains
obtained from their political proposals.158
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Our main thesis is that parties in democratic politics are analogous to entrepreneurs in a
profit-seeking economy. So as, to attain their private ends, they formulate whatever policies
they believe will gain the most votes, just as entrepreneurs produce whatever products they
believe will gain the most profits for the same reason. In order to examine the implications of
this thesis, we have assumed that citizens behave rationally in politics. This premise is itself a
second major hypothesis(Downs, 1957, pp. 295-296).
The operation of the model is based on three fundamental premises: (1) all decisions
— those that are made by voters and political parties — are rational, ie, guided by self
interest and enforced in accordance with the principle of maximization of action’s
utility; ( 2) the democratic political system implies a level of consistency that supports
predictions about the consequences of decisions made by voters and political parties, ie,
their agents — voters, parties and government — are responsible and trustworthy, which
makes it possible to make predictions about the consequences that result from different
choices, and (3) the democratic system assumes — despite the consistency stated in
the previous point — a level of uncertainty, sufficiently important to allow different
options.
3.1 Maximizing the action’s utility
The concept of rationality is of key importance in understanding the theory of
rational choice and it is important to clarify that in Downs’ economic theory, rationality
is the assumption that voters and political parties act directly according to the their own
12. interests. From this perspective, the term rationality is applied in the sense that the
means used are appropriate to the goals,
This follows from the definition of rational as efficient, i.e., maximizing output
for a given input, or minimizing input for a given output. Thus, whenever
economists refer to a ’rational man’ they are not designating a man whose
though processes consist exclusively of logical propositions, or a man without
prejudices, or a man whose emotions are inoperative. In normal usage all of
these could be considered rational men. But the economic definition refers
solely to a man who moves toward his goals in a way which, to the best of his
knowledge, uses the least possible input of scarce resources per unit of valued
output (Downs, 1957, p. 5)
According to this understanding of rationality, elections serve to choose a government
and, consequently, rational behavior in an election is one that is oriented towards this
objective and not to any other.
The axiom of self-interest applies equally to activities of political parties. According
to rational choice theory, political parties seek to win elections, not by any altruistic 159
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
motive relating to the application of a political program, but to gain prestige for itself and
the gains inherent to being in power. Since the prestige and profits that political parties
pursue is concretized by electoral victories, then we can say that the main objective of
parties is winning elections. The rational objective is materialized if they can get more
votes than any other party. Namely, the activities of political parties is itself guided by
the principle of utility maximization of action: “Upon this reasoning rests the fundamental
hypothesis of our model: parties formulate policies in order to win elections, rather than win
elections in order to formulate policies.”(Downs, 1957, p. 28)
3.2 Consistency
The rationality of the political system derives from the fact that voters, political
parties and government have always several interconnected options available to choose
from, ordered from most to least favorable. The order of preference is transitive so that
if the subject prefers A to B and B to C then also prefers A to C (Downs, 1957).
Under this approach, when faced with two alternatives, the rational subjects
compare the expected benefits of each option. In cases of electoral choice, they compare
the expected results for the election of the party in government, with the expectation
of earnings in case of winning the opposition party. If the difference between these two
values is positive, they vote for the governing party. If the difference is negative, they
vote for the opposition. If the value is zero, they will abstain from voting.
The rational choice presupposes, therefore, not only the possibility of making
predictions about the behavior of other individuals, political parties and government,
but also the possibility to compare them. The question that arises is how that subjects
calculate the expected value in each of the alternatives. In relation to the government
party, they may calculate the expected value according to the previous action of that
party, assuming there will be continuity of policy pursued while in government, however,
the opposition party does not have an indicator of the same nature. Once the hypothesis
is that the rational comparison is one that uses the same time unit as a benchmark, ie,
13. the mandate that expires, then the voter compares the performance of the government
party to what is supposed that each opposition party would have done if they had still
been in government. Of course, calculating this differential can only be done if we
assume that parties are responsible and reliable, ie that there is consistency in their
behavior. If there is any consistency in the behavior of political parties and government,
this situation leads to the impossibility of rational choice and consequently the collapse
of the democratic system.160
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3.3 Uncertainty
We saw earlier that the rational choice theory argues that the rationality of political
behavior leads voters and parties to act according to their own interests. In the case of
political parties is their interest to enjoy the benefits of exercising power and the benefits
it brings. Once that is achieved only by obtaining more votes than other parties, we
would expect rational behavior of parties would lead them to defend the proposals that
safeguard the interests of the majority of the electorate and that this move would lead
inevitably to a situation of non-differentiation of their proposals. We note, however, that
this is not what happens. Political parties argue and present proposals to the electorate
sufficiently differentiated to mobilize voters to turnout. According to Downs (1957) the
diversity of societies and social conflicts introduce levels of uncertainty that lead both to
the emergence of ideologies and ambiguity in relation to social groups that may be more
useful for the electoral victory, and consequently, the differentiation of the proposals
submitted by political parties.
The dynamism of democratic societies also highlights the uncertainty about the
electoral effects that can be obtained with proposals that appeal to some social groups
but displease others. According to the model, the parties define their ideologies in order
to maximize support among the largest possible number of social groups. We have,
once again, a perfect analogy with the economic explanation for the functioning of the
markets. If the electoral market (political system) is dominated by one brand (political
party), other brands only can grow if they bet on strategies that enhance the specific
needs of a market niche (social minority groups) not satisfied with the products (policy
proposals) provided by the big brand (dominant party) and/or the specific needs of a
significant fringes of consumers (voters) of this dominant brand (party).
For example, let us assume that three parties form and appeal to three different social
groups, and one of these parties consistently wins by overwhelming votes. In order top ‘get
back in the swim’, the other two parties must revise their ideologies to attract votes from the
same groups as perennial winner. Them each party will be trying to combine a specific segment
of the predominant group with parts of minority groups for electoral votes (Downs, 1957, p.
101).
This movement to adjust the parties’ election proposals to the interests of social
groups is limited by the need for consistency to which we referred earlier. So that voters
may consider a party in their calculations on the differential gain, it is important that
they can predict their future behavior from their political discourse and in relation to
their actions in the past, ie the party must be reliable and responsible. The consistency
required to produce forecasts of the performance of the parties is, therefore, implied by
14. the existence of ideological coherence and inertia.161
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
The rational choice theory considers that what matters to voters is not ideology
but concrete actions that governments take. However, voters do not know in detail
all government decisions and it takes effort to fully understand and evaluate all the
consequences. Thus, the ideologies of parties allows them to focus their analysis on only
a few variables and making generalizations from this sample for all other proposals of
that party: “With this short cut a voter can save himself the cost of being informed upon a
wider range of issues” (Downs, 1957, p. 98).
Although what matters to voters are not the intentions or the political discourse
of the parties, ie, their ideology, but their concrete actions, the rational choice theory
argues that the comparison between ideologies is only used if the voter already has
previously concrete indicators relating to actions carried out effectively. If the voter
does not have any previous data on the concrete actions of the parties and they are only
able to distinguish them by their ideology, this means in practice that they are equal with
regard to the interests of the voter.
3.4 Spatial representation
Downs (1957) represents the relative positioning of political parties and voters using
a spatial analogy build on the work of Harold Hotelling (1929) and Smithies (1941) that
consists in representing the political preferences of voters on a linear scale numbered
from left to right, from zero to one hundred. Voters and political parties have a certain
place on the scale according to their political position. As mentioned above, voters tend
to choose the parties that are closest to their position and the parties will tend to position
themselves at a point on the scale that maximizes the number of electoral votes. If a
voter is placed in the position 35 of the scale, we can deduce that when he have to choose
between a party located at position 30 and another located in the position 25, he will
choose that one that is in the position 30. Likewise, he will prefer a political party in
the position 40 for another in position 45. This means that if voters are scattered in
the range according to a distribution with only a mode, parties tend to put themselves
also on this mode and, therefore, to approach each other. If voters are spread to create
multiple modes over the scale, that fact will lead each of the political parties to put up
near one of these mode which will cause a breach between them2
.
3.5 Strategic vote
According to the model, the decision to vote in an election is supported by an
irrational belief about the effectiveness of such action. As the elections are aimed at
choosing the government and not the expression of preferences, the voter will evaluate 162
exedra • nº 4 • 2010
the chances of that party winning the election: “Each citizen uses his forecast to determine
whether the party he most prefers is really a part of the relevant range of choice. If he believes
it is not, then rationally commands him to vote for some other party””(Downs, 1957, p. 48).
This decision by strategic voting depends not only on the assessment of the chances
of the favorite party winning, but also the risk of the elections being won by a political
party considered undesirable. The decision by strategic voting will depend largely on the
15. importance that the subject goes to the need to keep a certain party out of government.
For example, let us assume that there are three parties: Right, Centre and Left. Voter X
prefers Right to Centre and Centre to Left, but he believes that Right has the least chance of
winning. If he greatly prefers Right to Centre and is almost indifferent between Centre and
Left, he is less likely to switch his vote from right to Centre than if he slightly prefers Right to
Centre but abhors Left (Downs, 1957, p. 49).
According to the model of rational choice, the likelihood of citizens to vote is higher
if their expectations regarding the critical importance of their vote and the expected
benefits from voting are larger than the costs. Faced with the choice between several
candidates the voter must determine what the difference to their interests, resulting
in victory (or loss) of candidate A, B or C. If this analysis does not expect significant
differences associated with victory or defeat of any candidates, the potential benefit
of voting is zero and the higher the probability of not participating in the elections.
Likewise, if the voters realize that their vote will not have decisive importance for the
election result, the probability of not voting increases.
Blais (2000) presents a critical analysis of this theory based on the finding that,
“unfortunately for the theory, many people do vote. In fact, a clear majority vote in the most
important elections, where the numbers of voters is extremely large and the probability of
casting a decisive vote is minuscule” (p. 2). Research conducted by Blais allowed him to
conclude that the rational choice model has a very low explanatory power of voting
behavior. In fact, the results of their study show that about half of voters vote without
making any calculation of costs and benefits, but being driven by duty to vote. Even
among those whose sense of duty is not so strong, the variables related to the benefits
and costs of voting do not have the influence that the rational choice model predicts.
Blais (2000) concludes that even the cost seems to have no significant influence on voting
behavior. Given the initial estimates of the model, he found that voters are more likely to
vote if they feel that their vote can make a difference, but overestimate its importance.
What seems to work is not the perception that one vote can make a difference, but that
the result can be very close:
Some people may reason that they decide not to vote, that decision would imply that others
163
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
with similar political attitudes will also abstain ... that is each citizen may regard his or her
single vote as diagnostic of millions of votes, which would substantially inflate the subjective
probability of one’s vote making a difference (Blais, 2000, p. 139).
This same criticism had been made previously by Uhlan (1989), who concluded that
the rational theory has difficulty in explaining individual participation in collective action,
which in the case of voting behavior, was tantamount to finding that “Unfortunately for
theory, people do vote “(p. 300). Green and Shapiro (1994) took this and other arguments
of a methodological nature in what is one of the most important critics of rational
choice theory. The approach of these authors focuses on methodological issues, which
criticize the post hoc development of the theory: ““many of the methodological failings
of applied rational choice scholarship are traceable to a style that places great evidence on
the development of post hoc accounts of known facts” ( Green & Shapiro, 1994, p. 34), the
16. absence of empirical tests: “those who seek to derive testable propositions from rational choice
models frequently find, moreover, that these theories are constructed in ways that insulate
them against untoward encounters with evidence “ (p. 38), as well as the selection, use and
interpretation of selected data: “the biased fashion in which evidence is selected. (…) subtler
ways in which evidence is projected from theory rather than gathered independently from it.
(…) the strategic retreat from domains in which the theory is found to perform poorly” (p. 42).
Voter turnout, which the authors analyze in detail in his book, is used to illustrate the
methodological weaknesses that link to rational choice theory:
For our purposes, the case of voter turnout is interesting not because it is a failure but
because it illustrates the characteristic ways that rational choice theorists have reacted to
discrepancies between theory and observation. In their resolute determination to declare
some variant of rational choice theory victorious over evidence (or, alternatively, to declare
peace with honor through artful domain restriction), rational choice theorists have trotted
out an astonishing variety of conjectures about the costs and benefits of voting, in the process
generating an enormous literature, possibly larger in terms of academic citations and sheer
bibliographic length than any other rational choice literature in American politics. (Green &
Shapiro, 1994, pp. 47-48).
This underlying requirement that voters have accurate and detailed information
about their interests and parties proposals is the main weakness of this model. The
proponents of this approach try to overcome this weakness using the concept of
heuristics and cognitive shortcut to explain how voters would able to make decisions
based on little information (Lupia, McCubbins, & Popkin, 2000; Popkin, 1994; Simon
HA, 1955, Sniderman, Brody, & Tetlock, 1991). It is argued that voters, unable to cope
with the complexity and information overload, used indicators such as the positions
taken in relation to candidates and electoral issues by certain media, public figures, 164
exedra • nº 4 • 2010
organizations or entities, heuristics for reasoning about the interest of the electoral
proposals. What we are talking about is not, however, information about political issues
and electoral proposals, but the trust that voters have in sources of heuristic reasoning.
Lacking information on the issues and electoral proposals, voters believe the position of
a candidate is favorable or unfavorable to their interests according to the trust they place
in a medium of mass communication, in an organization, an entity or a personality. That
is, voters decide, in fact, based on trust, not based on the information. Then we returned
to the proposals of the sociological model — that people vote according to their social
group —, and psychosocial — that people vote according to their partisanship.
This brief presentation of the main explanatory models of electoral behavior allows
us to identify a complementarity between them. The sociological models value the
contribution of social and historical contexts that gave rise to the emergence of political
parties and that, according to this view, justify the party political divisions and the
resulting behavior of voters; the rational or economic models that considers the crucial
role in shaping the voting behavior is played by the evaluation of political and economic
factors that characterize each election per se; the psychosocial models put emphasis on
the relationship between these two types of factors (distal and proximal), a relationship
that is mediated and moderated by the psychological link established between voters and
17. political parties, ie, partisanship.
Antunes (2008), in a study into the reasons that lead individuals to change their vote
from one election to another, argues that studies which take as a theoretical reference
to the sociological model (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee, 1954; Lazarsfeld , Berelson,
& Gaudet, 1944; Lipset & Rokkan, 1967) or psychosocial approach (Campbell, Converse,
Miller, & Stokes, 1960, Miller & Shanks, 1996) provide a consistent explanation for the
stability of electoral choices, but show to be quite fragile in clarifying the reasons why
some voters to vote differently in consecutive elections. In turn, the approaches in the
framework of rational choice theory (Buchanan & Tullock, 2001; Downs, 1957), although
they provide interesting clues for understanding the fluctuations in voting behavior, are
insufficient when it comes to explain the fact that a considerable majority of voters vote
with a remarkable stability.
To bridge this gap and integrate the contributions of all these approaches Antunes
(2008) proposes a revision of the central concept of the psychosocial approach ―
partisanship ― in the light of current studies of social identity, trying to show, theoretically
and empirically, that the reconceptualization of the concept of partisanship helps to
explain situations where changes in electoral behaviour occur, maintaining the potential
of the psychosocial model in understanding the stability of voting options.
As we have seen, in its traditional sense, the concept of partisanship was modelled 165
Rui Antunes • Theoretical models of voting behaviour
from the concept of reference group (Hyman & Singer, 1968; Merton & Kitt, 1950) ―
paradigm of research groups led by social psychology in the middle of last century ― that
emphasized subjective belonging to a group. Also relevant in this adaptation of research
from social psychology to the study of voting behavior was the idea of anticipatory
socialization, introduced by Merton and Kitt (1950) to define the situations in which
the subjects chose a reference group to which they did not belong, acting according
to what they perceive as being the standards of that group. The importance of this
perspective of partisanship as a subjective belonging to a group is better understood if we
consider that the psychosocial model of electoral behavior has emerged as a response to
difficulties of the sociological model (Berelson, Lazarsfeld, & McPhee, 1954; Lazarsfeld,
Berelson, & Gaudet , 1944) to effectively articulate the influence of belonging to social
groups with the intervention of proximal factors. The sociological model, although it
provides a plausible explanation for the fact that most people from one social group
vote a certain way, can not explain, equally plausibly, the reason why people belonging
to certain social groups do not vote according with the majority choice among members
of these groups. By shifting the focus of the membership belongs to the subjective lens,
placing the definition of partisanship on the interaction between distal social factors
and proximal economic variables, Campbell et al. (1960) solved this theoretical problem
quite effectively. However, the decisive role of partisanship in the definition of the
options to vote is challenged, because it appears that, contrary to the psychosocial model
advocated, in each election a significant number of voters vote for a party other than that
they identify with. In general, these critics use arguments which are based on rational
choice theory (Downs, 1957), an approach focusing only on the influence of electoral
proximal variables, namely economic factors.
18. It is therefore in this context that Antunes (2008, 2010) reconceptualised the
concept of partisanship using the actual approach that the social psychology make to
the social identity to support the general hypothesis that the changes that occur in the
electoral choices of voters are not unpredictable but likely to advance according to their
partisanship. It is argued that the limitations of the traditional concept of partisanship
rooted in its conception as a stable cognitive entity and not as a process of selfcategorization,
dynamic and responsive to changes in the context, in which different
levels of the same electoral identity coexist and are mutually interconnected (Oakes,
1987, 2003, Reynolds, Turner, & Haslam, 2003; Turner, Hogg, Reicher, & Wetherell,
1987).
In this scheme, the categories available to the subject, ie, political parties, would
be organized in each voter ― what Antunes (2008) has called the subjective political
field ― depending on their ability to describe reality and its emotional significance and
relevance to the subject. The category which became more frequently used, due to its 166
exedra • nº 4 • 2010
better adaptation to the political contexts in which the subject acts more frequently,
takes a higher emotional value and occupies the central place in his subjective political
field, becoming central in their electoral identity. It is that category (party) which, in
general (as is asked in the evaluation question of partisanship), is adequate for most
electoral and political situations. The other categories are organized in two groups
according to whether or not that may be used in other contexts: those parties that are
considered as referring always to outgroups, whatever is the situation (ie, those that
are not, under any circumstances, electoral options); all other political parties that are
secondary partisanship identities, that are accessible to the subject and can be mobilized
if the specific context is set as the most appropriate.
This way of understanding party identification can accommodate the contribution
of the three main theoretical approaches of electoral behavior, keeping the specific
contribution of each one in the definition of the variables they consider essential in the
definition of electoral choice.
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Notas
1 This work is based on a chapter of the author’s doctoral thesis, presented to the University
of Coimbra in October 2008 titled “Party identification and voting behavior: structural factors,
attitudes and changes in voting.”
2 The model of spatial representation proposed by Downs sees the electoral choice based on
proximity of the voters on the proposals of political parties. Other authors have developed
models of
spatial representation in which the choice does not arise only in the proximity, but also on
variables
such as directionality and intensity (Grofman, 1985; Matthews, 1979; Merrill III & Grofman,
1999; Rabinowitz & Macdonald, 1989).
Correspondência
Rui Antunes
Escola Superior de Educação - Instituto Politécnico de Coimbra
Praça Heróis do Ultramar, Solum, Coimbra
antunes@ipc.pt