International Food Policy Research Institute/ Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (IFPRI/ ESSP)and Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI) Coordinated a conference with Agriculutral Transformation Agency (ATA) and Ministry of Agriculutrue (MoA) on Teff Value Chain at Hilton Hotel Addis Ababa on October 10, 2013.

1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Patterns and Determinants of Teff
Consumption in Ethiopia
Ibrahim Worku, Mekdim Dereje, Guush Berhane,
Bart Minten and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
IFPRI ESSP-II EDRI
October 10, 2013
Addis Ababa
1

2. Outline
1. Introduction
2. Data and Methodology
3. Patterns of food and teff consumption
4. Estimates of income elasticities
5. Conclusion and policy implication

3.  In this study, we look at teff at the end the value chain, i.e.
consumption of teff
 Based on national representative data, we document the
major patterns in food and teff consumption in Ethiopia
 We further econometrically study the link of incomes with teff
consumption
1. Introduction

4. • We use annual household expenditure data on all food and
non-food items, collected roughly every five-year by the CSA,
called HICEs and HCEs (for 2010).
• Survey years: 1995, 2000 ,2005 and 2010
• The HICEs is a unique dataset: nationally representative!
• Sample size: ranges from 11,957 (1995) to 27,835 (2010)
• Increasing number of items considered over the years: 222
items (1995 survey) and 1186 items (2010 survey)
 We acknowledge CSA for providing us the data
2. Data and methodology

5.  To do so, we use annual household expenditure data on all
food and non-food items
 Annual expenditures: the total Birr value of expenditure spent
or used for all possible household consumables & converted
to an annual basis.
 Expenditures often used as proxy for “income” and also
useful to understand consumption patterns among income
groups of households, across space and time.
2. Data and methodology

6. 3. Patterns in food and teff consumption
a. Food versus non-food: Share of food in the consumer basket is
declining over time
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
2000 2005 2010
Food
Non Food

7. 3. Patterns in food and teff consumption
Food item Birr/capita Food share
Teff 198 9.0%
Wheat 168 7.6%
Barley 54 2.5%
Maize 171 7.8%
Sorghum 112 5.1%
Pulses & other cereals 238 10.8%
Other foods 1,253 57.0%
Total food 2,198 100%
b. Teff versus other foods. Teff most important cereal

8. 8
3. Patterns in food and teff consumption
c. 1) White, mixed and red teff expenditure share has leveled in 2010.
2) the share of white teff is on the rise and that of red teff has declined
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2005 2010
Shareofteffintotalteff(%)
Year
White Teff
Red Teff
Mixed Teff

9. 9
3. Patterns in food and teff consumption
Shares (%) in total per capita expenditures
Categories 2000 2005 2010
Teff 12.7 8.7 9.0
Wheat 8.8 8.7 7.6
Barley 3.8 3.5 2.5
Maize 11.6 8.5 7.8
Sorghum 6.1 8.0 5.1
d. Changes over time.
1/ Expenditures on cereals are overall declining
2/ In contrast to other cereals, share of teff has increased between 2005-10

10. 10
3. Patterns in food and teff consumption
d. Changes over time. Quantities of teff consumed are increasing
over time
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
165
2000 2005 2010
TEFF
(kg/person)

11. 11
3. Patterns in food and teff consumption
e. Agro-ecologies (Quantity of teff consumption). Rural versus urban (2005)
1/ Urban consumption very high
2/ Large differences for different agro-ecological zones
0
50
100
150
200
250
poor nonpoor poor nonpoor poor nonpoor poor nonpoor
Enset
Other Cereals
Sorghum
Maize
Wheat
Teff

12. 12
3. Patterns in food and teff consumption
g. Rural versus urban.
While the proportionate increase is higher for white, mixed teff still remains
important in urban areas ; black is stable in rural areas
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
2000 2005 2010
White Teff
Mixed Teff
Black Teff
2000 2005 2010
25.4
27.3
32.9
36.6
27.7 27.3
38.0
45.0
39.9
Rural
White Teff Mixed Teff Black Teff
Urban

13. 13
3. Patterns in food and teff consumption
j. Calorie intake. in urban areas a third of calories derived from teff-so
dominant source of calorie intake; while in rural areas, teff teff accounts only 8%
8%
13%
43%
14%
9%
2% 11%
Rural
30%
10%
23%
5%
14%
3%
15%
Urban
Teff
Wheat
Other Cereals
Enset & root crops
Pulses & oil seeds
Animal products
Others

14. • As income of consumers change, their food consumption
basked changes
• This is measured by the income elasticity: “An % increase of
income leads to an % increase of consumption of a particular
food”
• These estimates tell us what will happen to the food demand
when countries and people become richer
• Estimates of these differences are done by comparing
consumption patterns of different wealth groups in the HICES
data
4. Estimates of income elasticities

15. 4. Estimates of income elasticities
(QUAIDS model)
This controls for demographic differences, location diff, wealth diff,…

16. 4. Estimates of income elasticities- (2005)
Urban Rural
Teff 1.10 1.20
Wheat 0.78 1.19
Maize 0.37 0.82
Sorghum –0.36 0.51
Pulses and other cereals 0.90 0.74
Animal products 1.72 1.98
Fruits and vegetables and root crops 1.22 1.18
Other foods 0.66 0.92
1/ Income elasticity for most crops positive
2/ Income elasticity for teff biggest of all cereals; teff demand is to
increase faster than demand for other cereals with income growth

17. 17
Conclusions and policy implication
•We present stylized facts on teff consumption based on national
household survey:
1. Teff most important cereal in food expenditures
2. Urban consumption much higher than rural consumption
3. Teff consumption is increasing over time

18. 18
Conclusion and policy implication (cont.)
4. White teff consumption has increased over time compared to red
and mixed teff consumption. In aggregate terms the three
verities have equal importance in 2010.
5. Teff is a major contributor to calories in urban area.
6. We find large income elasticity of teff; as incomes
grow, Ethiopian consumer will increasingly spend on teff. This
indicates the importance of increasing investments in teff as its
importance will grow over time
7. Further need to increase production to satisfy increasing
demand in foreign markets - huge opportunity in international
market

19. US produced teff on sale at Trader Joe’s Supermarket in New York
City (1 LB or 454g for $6.29).
Teff – already in global supermarkets!
At this price , a quintal of teff would sale a whopping 26,000 ETB!!

20. Teff – already in global supermarkets!
Dutch company (since 2003)
Producing teff to make gluten
free and wt conscious
cookies, muffins, cakes and
modern breads

21. Enjoy consuming . . . . Tiny-> teff
&
Thank you!