Pathways to Foresight Careers

Pathways for
Foresight
Careers
Dr. Jay Gary
Download slides: http://www.jaygary.com/foresightcareers14.pdf #WFS14 @drjaygary

Jay Gary
Longview, Texas
• Associate Professor, Graduate Sch. of Business, LETU
• Graduate Program Director, MBA, MHA, MSL, MEM
• Founder of Regent University’s Foresight Programs
• 15 yrs in Mgt Consulting, 10 yrs academic
• Research is in Foresight, Strategy & Leadership
• http://www.jaygary.com

Abstract
1. How has your futurist work intersected with your career?
2. What is the present state and future prospects of building a
career in foresight?
3. What competencies will tomorrow’s futurists demonstrate,
whether as trend analysts, project managers, facilitators or
consultants?
This session present findings from the “Certification of Professional Futurists 2030,”
a Real-Time Delphi conducted among 142 experts from 29 countries on how 6
interlocking systems will shape how the futurists of tomorrow will build their careers:
knowledge base, competency maps, interactive training, participatory networks,
continuing education, and code of ethics.

Age of Jobs
https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140620100222-22726740-jobs-are-over-the-future-is-income-generation-part-1?trk=mp-reader-card

Post-Industrial Society: 1970-2010
• US Employment Shift by Sector
• Increase in Occupation Differentiation
• Increased Requisite Science Based Skills
• Layered Occupational Structure
- Professional
- Managerial
- Technical
78%
20%
2%

Rise of Productivity & GDP Low
Wage Growth, Decline of Jobs

Job Movement
“Jobs have moved Up,
Out and Fragmented”

Age of Income Generation

Professional Futurists
Actors, Levels & Identity
Strategic
Foresight
Organizational
Futurist
End User
Client
Consulting
Futurist
Champion
Client
Hines, A. (2012, December). The role of an organizational futurist in integrating foresight into organizations.
Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Leeds Metropolitan University, Faculty of Business and Law; p. 9

Our approach in this session:
1. Review Six Practices of Strategic Foresight
2. Discuss results of a
• 2013 Survey of Professional Futurists
• 2012 Delphi on Professionalizing Foresight

Strategic Foresight
is the ability to create and maintain a high-
quality, coherent and functional forward view
and to use the insights in useful ways eg. to
reach new markets, to guide policy, to reinvent
companies, to launch strategic alliances.
Richard Slaughter, AFI

Where do
foresight
professionals
work?
• Strategic Planners
• Intelligence Analysts
• Innovation Managers
• Management Consultants
• Social Entrepreneurs

Foresight
Practices
Framing
1
Scanning
2
Forecasting
3
Visioning4
Planning
5
Source: Hines & Bishop, Thinking About the Future, 2007
6
Acting

APF 2013 Survey
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Sole Proprietor
Small Team < 5
Type of Company
61 %
27 %
N = 40; 3-5 Projects a Year,
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Int'l Companies
Governments
Non-Profits
Type of Client
11 %
12 %
14 %
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
$1,000 - $5,000
$15,000-$30,000
Fee Per Project
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
60-90 Days
1-3 Days
Project Duration
22 %
28%
21%
29 %
Projects mostly internal supported (60%)

What has been changing for “Futurists”?
Daheim, C., & Uerz, G. (2008, May). Corporate foresight in Europe: From trend based logics to open foresight. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20(3), 321-336.

Annual Revenue of Foresight Firms
60% of Revenue, just 5 Firms

The Foresight Market
The results suggest a specialized
market with many small, fragmented
providers and a handful of large firms.
– Noah Raford, PhD, APF 2013 Survey

APF Questions
1. Will small consultancies and sole traders be
able to compete against large, consolidated
industry players?
2. Will advances in IT enable small players to
compete more effectively, or will they
enable large firms to extend their reach
and consolidate their dominance in a global
market place?
3. Is the industry shrinking, growing, or
staying the same overall?

School of Business & Leadership | Jay Gary, PhD
Certifying Professional Futurists
2030
The Future of the Foresight Profession
Results from a Delphi Survey
Jay Gary, PhD • July 2013
Twitter: DrJayGary
jaygary.com/profession2030.pdf
Note: This research has been submitted for publication to Futures journal

Job to Occupation to Profession?
Hines, A., & Gold, J. (2013). Professionalizing foresight: Why do it, where it stands, and
what needs to be done. Journal of Futures Studies, 17(4), 35-54.
http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-4/A03.pdf
Category Definition Criteria?
Capability the ability to do something 
Field an area of interest or practice 
Discipline an area of academic study ?
Profession recognized occupation—excludes “ineligibles”

If we worked toward professionalizing foresight over 20 years, would
this turn a Competitive Disadvantage to a Competitive Advantage?

Evolution of a Profession?
Adapted from Hogan, L. (2003). Futures studies: Evolution of a profession. Student paper. AFI, Swinburne University.
Hines, A. (2012, December). The role of an organizational futurist in integrating foresight into organizations.
Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Leeds Metropolitan University, Faculty of Business and Law.
1. Knowledge Base: of frameworks, theories, methods, tools.
2. Competency Profile: that delineates skills by job task and career level.
3. Approved Training: that is offered in certificates, diplomas, degrees or modules.
4. Professional Association: accepted by profession to represent them.
5. Professional Skills: that are updated through continuing education.
6. Code of Ethics: with adherence to standards.
7. Accrediting Body: that sets standards and backs competency exams.

Porter’s Five Forces
What was the Conceptual Framework?
Porter, M. E. (1979). How competitive forces shape strategy. Harvard Business Review, 57(2), 137-145.

Who Might Shape Foresight Profession- 2030?
New entrants (consolidation or not of the field?)
Foresight Professional Certification:
Suppliers (those who train)
• Self – trained analysts,
managers, trainers,
consultants
• Universities (degrees,
certificates)
• Associations - (conferences)
• Commercial Firms (exec
educ)
Buyers (those who buy foresight)
Clients
Students
Mid-Career shifters
Substitutes (other professions, technology)
Certifications: Planning, Strategy, Risk, CI, etc
Other Degrees: MBA, MA-economics, sociology
Online Interactive Learning

Delphi Study on the Foresight Profession
“Real-Time Delphi “ Survey
Dec 11th -
Jan 31st

Real-time Delphi
A real-time Delphi reduces the need for multiple surveys
and generates a broad database for scenarios (von der Gracht, 2011)
Survey 1
Starts
Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3
Survey 1
Ends
Expert n
Moderator
Statistical
Results
(1) Assess Each Item
(2) Real-time Feedback
(3) Re-assess Estimates
The “Real-Time Delphi” is
an anonymous, systematic,
questioning process, in
which the statistical group
opinion is calculated in the
background after each
question.
Worldwide to date there are
very few similar web-based
foresight tools.
Innovative RT-Delphi

Consensus Portal
Grad Programs – Certification Advantage
Commercial Firms Offer Foresight Training

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Who Responded to this RTDelphi?
142 Respondents, 1,226 Invitations, 11.6% response
Age
Location Gender
Profession
Consultants
31.7%
Academics
31.0%
Applied
Research
13.4%
Industry
13.4%
Association / Politics
10.6%
Europe 43.7%
N. America 36.6%
Oceania 7.7%
Asia 6.3%
L.America 3.5%
Africa 2.1%
Female
22%
Male
79%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84
39
38
28
17
15
5
APF
Other
WFS
MP
WFSF
ST Associations

Ranking of Expectations
High
Moderate
No. Propositions for 2030 EP
7 Other Professions offer Foresight training 72
9 Academic Acceptance of Foresight 62
14 Interactive E-Learning 61
13 Individualized Self Training 56
11 Explicit Job Offers for Futurists 55
4 On the Job Training 55
6 Commercial Firms - Foresight Training 50
8 Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 48
10 Accreditation of Foresight Education 48
1 Professional Certification 48
2 Certification by Levels 46
5 Grad Programs Compete on Certification 44
12 Preference for Foresight Degrees 38
3 Recognized Council 24
Low

Ranking of Consensus / Dissent
No. Propositions for 2030 EP IQR
7 Related Professions Compete w Futures 72 10
3 Recognized Council for Standards 24 20
12 Preference for Foresight Degrees 38 25
4 On the Job Training 55 30
5 Grad Programs Compete on Certification 44 30
9 Academic Acceptance of Foresight 62 30
10 Accreditation of Foresight Education 48 30
11 Explicit Job Offers for Futurists 55 30
14 Interactive E-Learning 61 30
13 Individualized Self Training 56 38
1 Professional Certification 48 40
2 Certification by Levels 46 40
6 Commercial Firms Provide Foresight Training 50 40
8 Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 48 45
Degree of consensus of EP = 2nd round
Interquartile Range (IQR 3 minus IQR1);
Strong consensus (IQR of <= 20) ;
Moderate consensus (IQR of 20-25);
Moderate dissent (IQR of >25-30);
Strong dissent IRQ of >=30)
Strong
Moderate
Consensus
Dissent
Strong
Moderate

Three Scenarios for 2030
3. New entrants: 39%, certification
Organizational Futurists
2. Suppliers: 49%, academicisation
Academic Futurists
-Connected Foresight Value Chain;
-Low Differentiation to other Occupations
1. Substitutes: 61%, assimilation
External Professions
-Fragmented Foresight Value Chain
-Low Differentiation to other Occupations
-Connected Foresight Value Chain
-Hi Differentiation to other Occupations
8. Consolidation of knowledge base
9. Academic acceptance of foresight
12. No preference for certified futurists
with foresight degrees over MBA.
6. Commercial Firms offer foresight training
7. Related professions offer foresight training
13. Individualized Self-Training thru ICT
1. Viable professional certification
2. Certification by levels or sector
3. Single Council setting standards

Issues in Play
• Substitutes
--From Assimilation of Foresight by Other Professions (Competitive Intelligence, Strategy,
Innovation) to Differentiation and Monopoly by Foresight Profession
-- From Face to Face Seminars to Interactive/Individualized Training.
-- From Independent Contractors to Virtual ICT Consultancies?
• Suppliers:
-- Credentials: From Academic Monopoly of Degrees to Competitive Markets of
Certificates? Diversity of Certificates from Methodological Schools: visionary, analytical,
participatory?
-- Disciplines: From Stand-Alone Differentiation of FS Degrees (accreditation?) to
Integration of Specializations within MBA?
• New Entrants:
-- Certification: None to Sector based? None to Methods based? None to Regional based?
None to single Global based? Dueling Certifications via Schools? Integration or
Fragmentation of Certification?
Buyers:
-- Professionals: From Early Pre-Service Students to Mid-Career Professionals?
• Competitive Rivalry: From Competitive Disadvantage to Competitive Advantage?

Pathways for the Foresight Profession
Scenario
Dominant
Actor
Value Chain
Competitive
Position
Likelihood Desirability
1. Substitutes
External
Professions
Fragmented
Low
Differentiation
61% 3.5
2. Suppliers
Academic
Futurists
Connected
Low
Differentiation
49% 3.4
3. New
Entrants
Organizational
Futurists
Connected
High
Differentiation
39% 3.1
The scenario of professional certification by 2030
was deemed least likely and less desirable by
experts. Yet if implemented in a co-joined manner
with a consortium of clients, its could yield
favorable gains for foresight professionals.

School of Business & Leadership | Jay Gary, PhDSchool of Business & Leadership | Dr. Gary
Ennis, M. (2008, 29 January). Competency Models: A review of literature and the role of the Employment and
Training Administration (ETA) (U.S. Department of Labor No. ETAOP 2008-13). Office of Policy Development and
Research.
http://www.careeronestop.org/CompetencyModel/pyramid.aspx
Next Steps: Competency Maps

Competency Maps - Detail
http://www.careeronestop.org/CompetencyModel/pyramid.aspx

Career Path, Ladders, Lattices
http://www.careeronestop.org/CompetencyModel/CareerPathway/CPWCllInstructions.aspx
Career ladders/lattices can:
• attract individuals to an industry by
showing potential career progression
beyond entry points,
• focus workforce development efforts,
• show workers how different jobs
interconnect within careers in an
industry, and
• inform workers about the training,
education, and developmental
experiences that would enable them to
accomplish their career objectives.

Discussion
1. What questions do you have on the Delphi
Method?
2. How do these potential pathways for
foresight professionals affect your work?

Pathways to Foresight Careers

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