Painel 3 - Cenários para o mercado de commodities - John Kemp
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John Kemp, da Reuters, apresenta dados sobre o mercado de petróleo no mundo e impactos econômicos sobre o agronegócio. Apresentado no Seminário Perspectivas para o Agribusiness 2016-2017 em 16/06/2016, em São Paulo.
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Painel 3 - Cenários para o mercado de commodities - John Kemp
- 1. Global oil outlook 2016-2018 Supply, demand and prices JOHN KEMP REUTERS June 2016 (John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
- 2. Real oil price quadrupled 2002-14, then fell 70% 2014-16
- 3. Real oil price averaged >$100 per bbl for 2011-H1 2014
- 4. Oil consumption peaked in OECD, growth relied on EMs
- 5. Oil supply (mostly non-OPEC) responded to higher price
- 6. U.S. shale output increased 1-2% per month 2012-2014
- 7. U.S. output up from 5mb/d (2008) to 9.7mb/d (Apr 2015)
- 8. Decade of high and rising oil prices 2004-2014 Real price of crude ≥ $100 for 3.5 years 2011-2014 Oil supply accelerating Oil demand decelerating Emerging imbalance Lower prices required to realign supply and demand
- 9. “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop” –– Stein’s Law Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (1972-74) What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics and Life (1998)
- 10. Adjusting oil supply involves three groups of producers OPEC Core Gulf Iran (Iraq?) African/Latin American members U.S. shale Core plays and counties Marginal plays and counties Non-OPEC non-shale (NONS) North Sea Deepwater Arctic Megaprojects Frontier Non-OPEC supply now falling at fastest rate for >20 years
- 11. OECD oil consumption returns to growth led by United States Non-OECD sees growth in some large EMs (China, India, Mexico) Offsetting slowdown in oil demand from oil and commodity exporting countries (Brazil, Gulf monarchies) Oil consumption growing > 1.5mb/d each year 2015-2018
- 12. Cheap gasoline has unleashed driving boom in the U.S.
- 13. India is also experiencing a boom in gasoline demand
- 14. India gasoline consumption growing at 10% per year
- 15. Mexico also seeing fast growth in gasoline consumption
- 16. Brazil’s fuel consumption is falling with recession
- 17. Low oil prices discouraging investment in exploration and production Non-OPEC oil supply falling at fastest rate for more than 20 years Oil consumption increasing at around 1.5mb/d per year 2015-2017 Emerging imbalance Supply disruptions (Canada, Nigeria, Iraq, Venezuela) accelerating adjustment Higher prices required to realign supply and demand
- 18. Production outages >3.5 mb/d accelerate adjustment
- 19. “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop” –– Stein’s Law Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (1972-74) What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics and Life (1998)
- 20. Hedge funds amass near-record bullish position on oil
- 21. Forward oil prices anticipate tighter market in 2017/18
- 22. Oil prices expected to recover gradually to $70 by 2020