The 2017-2018 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) summarizes evidence on successful social protection programs (SPPs) in rural Africa and their role in reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience. It reviews progress on agricultural indicators and implementation of the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme. The report finds widespread recognition of SPPs' potential benefits, such as protecting assets, creating assets, and reducing inequality. However, design challenges include targeting the heterogeneous poor and ensuring appropriate payment modalities. While impacts can include increased productivity and income, programs must be large-scale, domestically funded, and sustainably designed through institutional architecture and continuous evaluation to maximize long-term effectiveness.

1. The 2017-2018 Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR)
An Overview
Fleur Wouterse and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Objectives
 the 2017–2018 ATOR takes an in-depth look at social protection in rural
Africa:
 summarizes the available evidence on successful implementation of SPPs;
 helps fill knowledge gaps related to enhancing the role of social protection in
reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience of rural households (the Malabo
Declaration, the African Union’s Agenda 2063).
 highlights policy implications to guide the design and roll-out of national social
protection programs for rural Africa.
 the 2017–2018 ATOR reviews progress on CAADP indicators outlined in the
CAADP Results Framework 2015–2025 and the CAADP implementation
process (Plenary Session VI)

3. Realization and commitment growing …
 Widespread realization of the need for and the potential benefits of
social protection;
 Four pathways linking social protection and agricultural development and, more
broadly, economic growth. SPPs:
o protect household assets in case of shocks;
o create individual, household, and community assets;
o help households cope with risk and enable households to use their existing
resources more effectively;
o reduce inequality;
 Caveats
o create disincentive effects;
o overly costly;

4. Realization and commitment growing …
 Widespread realization of the need for and the potential benefits of social protection;
 Continent-wide: the 2014 Malabo Declaration, African leaders committed to end
hunger on the continent by 2025 – integrate social protection with measures to
increase agricultural productivity (CAADP);
 Country level efforts:
o Initiatives in multiple domains – food assistance, cash transfers, pension
schemes, school feeding, …
o institutionalize systems of assistance;
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012
Annual Average per capita level (in 2005 USD) 12.9 28.9 49.3
Share in total government expenditure (%) 5.2 6.4 12.5
Government Expenditure on Social Protection in Africa– levels and shares

5. Social protection works …
 Impacts (chapters 4-8):
 smooth consumption/protect assets, reduce food insecurity (increase nutrient
availability);
 can generate economy-wide (local through to national) productivity and income
growth through multiplier effects;
 disincentive effects do not appear significant (labor supply, private transfers, local
prices)
 Synergies with agriculture (chapters 2-3):
 SP programs enhance human capital and risk-management capacity; increase
productivity; move from subsistence to resilient livelihoods.

6. Appropriate design and robust evaluation vital …
 Design (chapters 8-11)
 Targeting:
o difficult – the poor are heterogenous (characteristics, location, context)
o categorical targeting, geographic targeting, proxy means tests, self-selection,
community-based targeting (CBT);
o benefits the poor, though effectiveness varies
 Other key aspects
o the choice of payment modality, and graduation;
 Evaluation and learning
 what works is not always clear – document progress;
 evaluate, learn, improve – experimentation can be valuable;

7. Scale-up and Sustainability major challenges …
 Scale-up
 Large programs are uncommon (except SA, Ethiopia);
 Scale-up necessary to enlarge benefits, cater for demand;
 Sustainability (Chapter 8)
 Effectiveness – costs and long–term impact varies with program type (Livelihood,
Cash Transfer, and Graduation Approaches);
 Funding – switch from external to domestic funding;
 A sustainable multi-objective social protection program requires:
 an effective institutional architecture that can mobilize resources and expertise,
design an equitable and efficient targeting system, efficient coordination among
stakeholders, and ;
 continuous quantitative and qualitative empirical assessment to generate
evidence for learning and to improve the design of subsequent phases;

8. Thank you