Presentation at World Bank learning event for agriculture in March 2017 by Andreas Wilkes, Unique Forestry and Land Use. Key messages: Consider stakeholders’ demands for GHG quantification Integrate GHG quantification in project results framework (PDO or intermediate results level) Consider appropriate methods for ex post estimation Integrate data collection requirements in project implementation in manual

1. OPTIONS FOR ACCOUNTING FOR GHG
EMISSIONS AT ENTRY, DURING
IMPLEMENTATION AND AT EXIT
Andreas Wilkes
March 2017

2. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
LIVESTOCK-RELATED MITIGATION OPTIONS
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Livestock projects may reduce or increase
• GHG emissions from livestock, manure mgt & energy
• carbon sequestration in shrubs, trees and soils

3. CONTENTS
1. How can GHG mitigation effects be
reflected in a project results
framework?
2. Issues to consider
1. Users’ demands for GHG quantification
2. Linking GHG quantification with project M&E
3. GHG quantification tools

4. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
GHG MITIGATION IN THE RESULTS FRAMEWORK
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WB Institute Results Chain training materials
ToC underlying a results framework

5. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
GHG MITIGATION IN THE RESULTS FRAMEWORK
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Wilkes et al (2016) Guidance for standardized MRV in AFOLU Projects . FAO.
Pasture & livestock improvement project, Kyrgyz Rep.
Finance for
pasture
infrastructure
Community
investments
in roads and
water points Use
remote
pastures
Grazing
pressure
â
Grazing
pressure
á
Use new
water
points
Energy
use á
Project emission:
Energy use in road
construction
Soil C á
Soil C â
Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Impacts
Environment
á â
Net effect on
GHGs & GHG
intensity
Productivity
á â
There are GHG effects throughout the results chain,
so where does GHG accounting fit in the RF?

6. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
GHG MITIGATION IN THE RESULTS FRAMEWORK
6
Livestock sector development project, Uzbekistan
PDO: improve livestock production and
supply chain management in target oblasts
SC1: Livestock services &
supply chain development
SC 2: Access to
finance
SC3: Project mgt
PDO indicators:
- Vet service performance
- Production of fodder crops
- Area of utilizable pasture
- Value of marketed livestock output
- Private investment leveraged
Supply chain partnerships
Nutrition, husbandry, breeding
Animal health, food safety
IO indicators:
- Number of partnerships…
- Area of improved pastures…
- yield/animal in supported farms
- GHG intensity (tCO2/t yield)
…
…

7. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
GHG MITIGATION IN THE RESULTS FRAMEWORK
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Niger: Climate-smart agriculture support project
PDO: enhance adaptation to climate risks
& improve agricultural productivity
SC1: investments for scaling-
up CSA
SC 2:
Mainstreaming CSA
SC3: Emergency
response facility
PDO indicators:
- Productivity: yield of key crops
- Mitigation: GHG per unit food
- Resilience: adoption of CSA
practices
Financing at commune level
CSA enterprise development
Technology transfer
Access to information
Support to service
delivery institutions
Support to CSA
innovation
SC4: Project
mgt.

8. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
GHG MITIGATION IN THE RESULTS FRAMEWORK
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Where to put GHG effects in a project results framework?
Project development objective
(PDO) indicators
where GHG emission reduction is
a primary project objective
Intermediate results indicators where GHG effects make a key
contribution to broader PDO or
country assistance strategy
Potential indicators:
• Total net carbon balance of targeted project area
• Total GHG emissions of targeted project area or supply chain in target area
• GHG emission intensity (tCO2e / unit output) in targeted supply chains
OR proxies (e.g. land area under SLM, number of households adopting xyz…)
Specific data requirements & procedures need to be specified in
project implementation manual

9. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
WHAT DEMANDS DO USERS HAVE?
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Potential user Potential
demand
Considerations & options
WB & project
partners
Reporting
against results
framework
Limit additional resources required:
use proxies; link GHG quantification
with mid-term & final evaluations
National
government
Monitoring
NDCs &
reporting to
UNFCCC
Ex post quantification of GHG
emission reductions. How to link with
national reporting, e.g. national GHG
inventory? Project contribution to
national capacities?
Carbon
markets
Verified
emission
reductions
Choice of target standard &
appropriate methodology
Bank Guidance on Corporate Results Indicators does not require net GHG
effect to be reported in the project results framework. But…

10. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
HOW TO LINK WITH PROJECT M&E?
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Common options for baseline and project scenario
Baseline is situation at project start, project scenario is change due to project
Baseline is change in absence of project, project is change due to project
G
H
G
Emission
reductions
G
H
G
Emission
reductions

11. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
LINKING WITH MID-TERM & FINAL EVALUATION
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Baseline
scenario
Project
scenario
RF indicator
Reduction in
net GHG
emissions
Reduction in
GHG intensity
(tCO2e / t yield)
Baseline survey of target
beneficiaries
Annual monitoring data or one-
off dedicated survey
Mid-term
review
Final
evaluation
If the baseline scenario is conditions at the start of the
project
• Focus on key GHG effects
• Include specific data required in project
implementation manual

12. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
LINKING WITH MID-TERM & FINAL EVALUATION
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If the baseline scenario is trends in the absence of the
project
Baseline
scenario
Project
scenario
RF indicator
Reduction in
net GHG
emissions
Reduction in
GHG intensity
(tCO2e / t yield)
Baseline survey of target
beneficiaries and assume
projected changes over time
OR
Baseline survey of target
beneficiaries & control group
Annual monitoring data or one-
off dedicated survey of target
beneficiaries & control group
Mid-term
review
Final
evaluation
• Focus on key GHG effects
• Include specific data required in project
implementation manual

13. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
WHAT ARE THE DATA NEEDS?
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Tools GHG sinks &
sources covered
Strengths Limitations
Ex-ACT All AFOLU Mandated tool for
ex ante;
Simple to use
Cannot enter annual
data
GLEAM Livestock & manure, all
systems
Estimates Tier 2
emission factors
High input data
needs
Others…
Methodologies GHG sinks &
sources covered
Livestock-specific Livestock, manure
Silvo-pastoral Biomass C, soil C
Biogas Manure
Others…

14. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH© UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH 14
1. Consider stakeholders’ demands for GHG
quantification
2. Integrate GHG quantification in project results
framework (PDO or intermediate results level)
§ Ex ante
§ Ex post (at project start, mid-term and/or final evaluation)
3. Consider appropriate methods for ex post estimation
§ Carbon calculator tools?
§ Carbon market methodologies?
4. Integrate data collection requirements in project
implementation in manual
KEY MESSAGES

15. © UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
Schnewlinstr. 10
79098 Freiburg, Germany
Tel: +49 761 208534 – 0
unique@unique-landuse.de
www.unique-landuse.de
© UNIQUE forestry and land use GmbH
With many thanks!
andreas.wilkes@unique-landuse.de