The document outlines a study conducted by GDFSUEZ to develop 4 scenarios for what cities may look like in 2030. A methodology was used to create contrasting scenarios based on two factors: the level of political autonomy a city has and its focus on either the environment or the economy. The 4 scenarios developed were: Self City (participatory with environmental focus), Planet City (regulated by supranational governance on environment), Castle City (autonomous seeking economic appeal), and Patchwork City (free market with privatized neighborhoods). Each scenario describes the urban form, governance structure, energy/utility systems, and implications for different sectors.

1. Prospective scenarios about city in 2030
Mathieu Baisez – Research & Innovation Division
Ecocity World Summit 2013

2.  Cities in 2030: a changing and booming market
Vegetal City - Luc Schuiten
Dongtan - China
Bus district in Mentougou - China
ZAC de Bonne – Grenoble / France
R&I of GDFSUEZ decided to carry out a prospective study about cities in 2030
in order to build contrasted and consistent scenarios
2

3.  A methodology thought to build
4 consistent and contrasted scenarios
• Relying on a tried and tested scientific methodology (prospective
methodology of CNAM – Michel Godet)
City with strong
political autonomy
• Structured on critical
cities evolutions in order
to build consistent cities
scenarios
“Environmental”
focus
SELF CITY - 1 3 - CASTLE CITY
“Economic”
focus
PLANET CITY - 2 4 - PATCHWORK CITY
City with weak
political autonomy
• Based on information and implication of various Group
representatives (Energy, Energy Services, Environmental Services)
3

4.  Self city
A participatory and
autonomous city with a
committed society
Sustainable development and
relocation of activities
A city with several
mixed villages
Dwellings
Shops and offices
Industries
Agriculture
The advent of the
decentralised renewable and
shared system
Services with strong
territorial roots, requiring an
integrated, shared system
and a global environmental
approach
A territoriality that works in
favour of town planners and
developers

5.  Planet city
An informed and active
supranational governance
structure that introduces
environmental regulation
An individualistic services
consumer society,
cocooning oriented
A widely spread and wellconnected city where
location no longer matters
Dwellings
Shops and offices
Industries
Agriculture
Maintaining of centralised
systems that improve their
environmental efficiency and
become “smart”
An integrated, multiservice
approach that depends
chiefly on the ability to
manage and supervise
systems
A dominating position for IT
players and equipment
suppliers

6.  Castle city
An autonomous city that
wants to safeguard and
develop its economic appeal
A planned and densely
populated city
Dwellings
Shops and offices
Industries
Agriculture
Cost cutting and security of
supply provide the best
compromise between a
centralised and a
decentralised system
Standardised energy and
water efficiency solutions
combined with specific
management and
supervision of the city
A city scenario which is not
in anyone’s favour

7.  Patchwork city
A free-market city, with no
autonomy or policy
An unequal and
individualistic society that
seeks self-sufficiency and
safety
A privatised city that is
widely spread and
segregated into specialised
neighbourhoods
Dwellings
Shops and offices
Industries
Agriculture
Coexistence of systems that
depend on income:
centralised and generic or
decentralised and specific
A diversity of services
related to citizens’ income
The privatisation of the city
works in favour of players in
the financing sector and the
construction and public
works sector

8.  4 stories and 4 urban forms contrasted
City with strong
political autonomy
“Environmental”
focus
SELF CITY - 1 3 - CASTLE CITY
PLANET CITY - 2 4 - PATCHWORK CITY
City with weak
political autonomy
“Economic”
focus

9. A brochure about these
2030 city scenarios is
available on the internet
http://www.gdfsuez.com/en/
news/what-will-cities-belike-in-2030/
Thank you for your attention
Mathieu.baisez@gdfsuez.com