This document summarizes the economics, barriers, and risks of developing the large oil shale resources in the United States. It discusses the significant oil shale deposits located primarily in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, totaling over 1.8 trillion barrels of recoverable oil. Several emerging technologies are described for both surface and in-situ extraction of oil from shale, including those being tested in the Bureau of Land Management's Research, Development, and Demonstration leasing program by companies like Chevron, Shell, and EGL Resources. The document analyzes the economic viability and impacts of a potential future oil shale industry in the US.
An issue brief/report from the Manhattan Institute. The 20-page report says now is the time for the U.S. to press its advantage in shale energy. The report's writer, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, Oren Cass, points out the cyclical nature of commodity prices for oil and gas and says even though prices are down now--they won't stay that way. In order to take full advantage of the shale boom, Cass suggests 11 reforms to help craft a smarter U.S. energy policy--one that will amplify the current boom and extend it far into the future.
Fuels refining is an integral component of Canada's oil and gas value chain. Refineries are the crucial manufacturing intermediary between crude oil and refined products.
View this to understand the business of processing crude oil into fuels and other value added products.
To learn more, please visit: http://www.canadianfuels.ca
GROWTH FACTORS AND CHALLENGES FOR OIL MARKET; GROWTH FACTORS FOR OIL MARKET; Demographic Factors, Oil Demand, Motorization in Asian Countries, Upstream Costs Increase, Principal CHALLENGES FOR OIL MARKET, US Shale Oil Production, US shale oil production potential for well drilling, Other constraints, Deepwater Production, Iraqi production growth prospects, GTL – challenge for the oil market after 2020
Oil Depletion & the Coming Global Energy Crisis, Seth Cook (June 2012)Beijing Energy Network
The 20th century was an era of cheap and abundant resources. Global energy supplies expanded dramatically. But in the early decades of the 21st century, we have already entered an era of scarce and expensive resources. In fact, in this century we may even see a contraction of global energy supplies, particularly of oil. We are perched on the verge of a global energy crisis, although very few people are aware of it, including energy experts.
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in its deepest downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier.
Earnings are down for companies that made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission more than two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investment in exploration and production. Scores of companies have gone bankrupt and an estimated 250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs.
The cause is the plunging price of a barrel of oil, which has fallen more than 70 percent since June 2014.
Prices recovered a few times last year, but a barrel of oil has already sunk this year to its lowest level since 2004. Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price that was pretty much the norm over the last decade.
Brent crude, the main international benchmark, was trading at around $29.64 ( 21st February 2016) a barrel on Saturday.
United States production has surged in recent years as the shale boom took off. That has helped create a glut of oil as major producers like Saudi Arabia continue to pump at high levels.
An issue brief/report from the Manhattan Institute. The 20-page report says now is the time for the U.S. to press its advantage in shale energy. The report's writer, senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, Oren Cass, points out the cyclical nature of commodity prices for oil and gas and says even though prices are down now--they won't stay that way. In order to take full advantage of the shale boom, Cass suggests 11 reforms to help craft a smarter U.S. energy policy--one that will amplify the current boom and extend it far into the future.
Fuels refining is an integral component of Canada's oil and gas value chain. Refineries are the crucial manufacturing intermediary between crude oil and refined products.
View this to understand the business of processing crude oil into fuels and other value added products.
To learn more, please visit: http://www.canadianfuels.ca
GROWTH FACTORS AND CHALLENGES FOR OIL MARKET; GROWTH FACTORS FOR OIL MARKET; Demographic Factors, Oil Demand, Motorization in Asian Countries, Upstream Costs Increase, Principal CHALLENGES FOR OIL MARKET, US Shale Oil Production, US shale oil production potential for well drilling, Other constraints, Deepwater Production, Iraqi production growth prospects, GTL – challenge for the oil market after 2020
Oil Depletion & the Coming Global Energy Crisis, Seth Cook (June 2012)Beijing Energy Network
The 20th century was an era of cheap and abundant resources. Global energy supplies expanded dramatically. But in the early decades of the 21st century, we have already entered an era of scarce and expensive resources. In fact, in this century we may even see a contraction of global energy supplies, particularly of oil. We are perched on the verge of a global energy crisis, although very few people are aware of it, including energy experts.
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in its deepest downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier.
Earnings are down for companies that made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission more than two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investment in exploration and production. Scores of companies have gone bankrupt and an estimated 250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs.
The cause is the plunging price of a barrel of oil, which has fallen more than 70 percent since June 2014.
Prices recovered a few times last year, but a barrel of oil has already sunk this year to its lowest level since 2004. Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price that was pretty much the norm over the last decade.
Brent crude, the main international benchmark, was trading at around $29.64 ( 21st February 2016) a barrel on Saturday.
United States production has surged in recent years as the shale boom took off. That has helped create a glut of oil as major producers like Saudi Arabia continue to pump at high levels.
Is Deep Water Oil Drilling a National Security IssueZiad K Abdelnour
Why are oil companies like British Petroleum being allowed to drill so deeply in hazardous conditions under the Gulf? In other words, why has the government been so supportive of deep water drilling in the Gulf?
Global discovered resource and yet-to-find, OPEC Countries; Conventional oil and Unconventional oil, UNCONVENTIONAL PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES, Heavy crude oil, Bitumen, Oil sand, Oil shale, Deepwater oil , Polar (ARCTIC) oil , Fractured source rock, Coal liquefaction or Gas to liquids
Oil is the major
source of energy from most of the developed as well as developing countries around the world.
Therefore a change in the supply of oil will significantly affect operations in most parts of the
world. There are a number of factors that affect the demand and supply of oil in the world.
- See more at: http://www.customwritingservice.org/blog/factors-affecting-demand-and-supply-of-oil
GROWTH FACTORS AND CHALLENGES FOR OIL MARKET; Demographic Factors; Oil Demand; Motorization in Asian Countries; Upstream Costs Increase; US Shale Oil Production; Deepwater Production; Iraqi production growth prospects; GTL – challenge for the oil market after 2020
TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference 2014Enbridge Inc.
Al Monaco, President and CEO, Enbridge Inc. discussed the strategic imperative of energy market access before an audience of investors, business leaders, and energy industry representatives.
Natural Gas Supply Outlookfrom The Business Research Company deals with the supply chain for natural gas, from the production stage, through processing and transportation, to distribution and consumption by industrial and retail customers.
Is Deep Water Oil Drilling a National Security IssueZiad K Abdelnour
Why are oil companies like British Petroleum being allowed to drill so deeply in hazardous conditions under the Gulf? In other words, why has the government been so supportive of deep water drilling in the Gulf?
Global discovered resource and yet-to-find, OPEC Countries; Conventional oil and Unconventional oil, UNCONVENTIONAL PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES, Heavy crude oil, Bitumen, Oil sand, Oil shale, Deepwater oil , Polar (ARCTIC) oil , Fractured source rock, Coal liquefaction or Gas to liquids
Oil is the major
source of energy from most of the developed as well as developing countries around the world.
Therefore a change in the supply of oil will significantly affect operations in most parts of the
world. There are a number of factors that affect the demand and supply of oil in the world.
- See more at: http://www.customwritingservice.org/blog/factors-affecting-demand-and-supply-of-oil
GROWTH FACTORS AND CHALLENGES FOR OIL MARKET; Demographic Factors; Oil Demand; Motorization in Asian Countries; Upstream Costs Increase; US Shale Oil Production; Deepwater Production; Iraqi production growth prospects; GTL – challenge for the oil market after 2020
TD Securities Calgary Energy Conference 2014Enbridge Inc.
Al Monaco, President and CEO, Enbridge Inc. discussed the strategic imperative of energy market access before an audience of investors, business leaders, and energy industry representatives.
Natural Gas Supply Outlookfrom The Business Research Company deals with the supply chain for natural gas, from the production stage, through processing and transportation, to distribution and consumption by industrial and retail customers.
There are a number of ways to make a lot of money these days. Some are more profitable than others. Some are also more deplorable than others, and need to be stopped.
Inspired by the E. Benjamin Skinner book of the same title. Find out more at http://acrimesomonstrous.com/
A presentation on why simplicity is important and how it can be achieved.
It was inspired by John Maeda's fantastic book The Laws of Simplicity, edited by MIT Press. If you have the chance please read it.
EDIT: You may want to download the original file as it loses considerable detail during conversion.
This deck contains slides I have used in live talks that (more or less) are simple and contain quite a bit of empty space. The first set are some before/after examples, followed by a random sample. This deck is not meant to tell a story -- this is just a way to show some random examples. The meaning of the slides may not be at all clear without the narration that goes with the slides.
This contains the entire 4-napkin health care series in one file. It makes more sense to read this one now than the others since it is the complete set all in one file.
Research Paper: How much oil remains for the world to produce? Comparing asse...Energy for One World
ABSTRACT
This paper assesses how much oil remains to be produced, and whether this poses a significant constraint to
global development. We describe the different categories of oil and related liquid fuels, and show that public-
domain by-country and global proved (1P) oil reserves data, such as from the EIA or BP Statistical Review, are
very misleading and should not be used. Better data are oil consultancy proved-plus-probable (2P) reserves.
These data are generally backdated, i.e. with later changes in a field's estimated volume being attributed to the
date of field discovery. Even some of these data, we suggest, need reduction by some 300 Gb for probable
overstatement of Middle East OPEC reserves, and likewise by 100 Gb for overstatement of FSU reserves. The
statistic that best assesses ‘how much oil is left to produce’ is a region's estimated ultimately recoverable resource
(URR) for each of its various categories of oil, from which production to-date needs to be subtracted. We use
Hubbert linearization to estimate the global URR for four aggregate classes of oil, and show that these range from
2500 Gb for conventional oil to 5000 Gb for ‘all-liquids’. Subtracting oil produced to-date gives estimates of
global reserves of conventional oil at about half the EIA estimate. We then use our estimated URR values,
combined with the observation that oil production in a region usually reaches one or more maxima when roughly
half its URR has been produced, to forecast the expected dates of global resource-limited production maxima of
these classes of oil. These dates range from 2019 (i.e., already past) for conventional oil to around 2040 for ‘all-
liquids’. These oil production maxima are likely to have significant economic, political and sustainability con-
sequences. Our forecasts differ sharply from those of the EIA, but our resource-limited production maxima
roughly match the mainly demand-driven maxima envisaged in the IEA's 2021 ‘Stated Policies’ scenario. Finally,
in agreement with others, our forecasts indicate that the IPCC's ‘high-CO2’ scenarios appear infeasible by
assuming unrealistically high rates of oil production, but also indicate that considerable oil must be left in the
ground if climate change targets are to be met. As the world seeks to move towards sustainability, these per-
spectives on the future availability of oil are important to take into account.
Haggi I
Abdullah Haggi
ENGLISH 2O1O
Shannon Branfield
o6/o3t2ot6
t?umlan5*n.-Q -^(
resource .rffi,ce? The ambiguous "-#*r:"
"
$TgX::;:.-
dependence on violent conrlicd rournat of Peace no*,"@,7s7-776,
This article is relevant to my argument because it offers part of a solution to both the
rentier peace and resource curse theories, particularly for the oil-producing countries. Hence,
the maior argument in this reference is that both resource dependence and resource wealth per
capita should be considered. In essence, these two concepts should be taken into account
because only the availability of the extremely high per capita revenues mainly from oil
enables governments to attain internal stability. Notably, the empirical analysis of this
reference supports this hypothesis effectively. The research findings of this article state that
oil-wealthy nations ostensibly manage to maintain their political stability through an
amalgamation of protection by outsiders, high expenditure on the security apparatus, and
large-scale distribution. In comparison to the oil-poor nations and inconsistency to the rentier
theory, the reference states that oil-wealthy countries' institutions seem not to be particularly
characterized through clientelism and patronage.
Benes, J., Chauvet, M., Kamenikr 0., Kumhof, M., Laxton, D., Mursula, S., &Selody, J.
,ri- , Th. future of oil: Geology versus technolog,v.lnternational Journal of Forecasting,,{31(l)"
L"',_
j:,
207-22{,2015. Print
Haggr 2
Most importantly, this ret'erence is also relevant to my argument since it reconciles
and discusses two diametrically opposed perspectives about rvorld's oil production future and
prices. The article notes that the geological perspective expects that physical constraints shall
dictate the future evolution of prices and oil output. This perspective is supported by the
statistics that pofiray that rvorld oil production has deciined significantly since 2005 despite
the historically high prices. Additionally, spare capacity has also reduced to near historic
lows. On the other hand, the technological perspective of oil expects that higher oil prices
should eventually lead to a decisive eff-ect specitically on oil output through encouraging
technological solutions. Tl"ris perspective is supported by the fact that high prices since 2003
resulted in escalated revisions in production forecasts lbunded on a purel-v geological
perspective.
"-,i'
ir\-
r l;
Bromley, S. The United States and the control of world oil'. Government antl Oppositio{,',
,'''"
tt'
: 40Q1.225-255. 2005. Print.
I :'
This informative relerence is appropriate for my argument because it expounds oa the
drive to correct the world's oil, which is the fundamental driving torce that is trehind the
American foreign policy. Hence, the reference argues that instead of perceiving the American
foreign poliey as being driven by the US oil companies' expansionary forces that seek new-
mar ...
Carbon Bubble - Making Sense of a "Fossil Market"Timon Henze
This presentation explores the impact of the so called 'carbon bubble' and how recent developments on the fossil fuel markets will influence financial decision making linked to it. The Dynamics of Oil Prices, CapEx, Cost-Investment-Decisions and Reserves is based with recent analyst data. A second part, obviously, discusses political mitigation proposals (divestment, de-subsidizing and extraction banning) and their rationale.
ase for critical thinkingScenarioplanningatRoyalDu.docxwildmandelorse
ase for critical thinking
Scenario
planning
at
Royal
Dutch
Shell
On 16 October 1973, a great oil crisis began when Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised the price of oil by 70 per cent and reduced production. This was in response to the decision by the United States to re-supply the Israeli military during the Yom Kippur war, lasting until March 1974. As a consequence, the market price of oil rose substantially — from $3 a barrel to $12. The trend of recessions and high inflation in the world financial systems until the 1980s meant that the price of oil continued to increase
198
until 1986.
24
This, according to Shell, meant that ‘An era of cheap energy had come to an end and oil was no longer a buyer’s market’.
25
However, when the oil shock came in October 1973 after the Yom Kippur war, Shell was the only oil major prepared for it. In the early 1970s, Pierre Wack was a planner in Royal Dutch Shell in London, and had calculated the impact of a possible rise in the oil price and a likely increase in the world’s appetite for oil. He and his colleagues had mapped out a scenario in which the OPEC demanded much higher prices for their oil following the 1967 Arab–Israel six-day war. In effect, Shell’s managers were able to plan for this eventuality and apply this planning to the crisis following the Yom Kippur war while other oil companies struggled.
26
In order to survive, Shell adopted a policy of diversification, branching out into the areas of coal, nuclear power and metals. Firstly, in 1970 Shell purchased Billiton, an established metals mining company (which it later sold). In 1973, the company moved into nuclear power by forming a partnership with Gulf Oil to manufacture gas-cooled reactors and their fuels. Shell’s success in coal was limited. In the 1970s, the company also continued its work in developing the oil fields in the North Sea. While a huge investment was required due to the adverse weather conditions and the instability of the sea bed, the cost was justified due to the sheer size of the oil fields in the North Sea, as well as the fact that supply from the Middle East was reduced at the time.
27
Royal
Dutch
Shell
became a leader in profitability, and continues to use
scenario
planning
as an aid to opportunity-framing and strategy formulation.
28
With the world making commendable efforts to limit its consumption of fossil fuels in the face of ‘peak oil’ (the time when demand exceeds supply) and increasing its reliance on wind and solar power, the long-established ‘legacy expectations’ of enduring access to easily accessible oil remain stubbornly fixed in the minds of both developed and developing nations.
Scenario
planning
is using careful research inputs to examine the prejudices of policy-makers and the demands of populations to arrive
at
sustainable solutions to energy needs, and to avoid the catastrophe of a war over oil. Is such a crisis likely, or even possible? Consider the following .
Case for critical thinkingScenarioplanningatRoyalD.docxcowinhelen
Case for critical thinking
Scenario
planning
at
Royal
Dutch
Shell
On 16 October 1973, a great oil crisis began when Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) raised the price of oil by 70 per cent and reduced production. This was in response to the decision by the United States to re-supply the Israeli military during the Yom Kippur war, lasting until March 1974. As a consequence, the market price of oil rose substantially — from $3 a barrel to $12. The trend of recessions and high inflation in the world financial systems until the 1980s meant that the price of oil continued to increase
198
until 1986.
24
This, according to Shell, meant that ‘An era of cheap energy had come to an end and oil was no longer a buyer’s market’.
25
However, when the oil shock came in October 1973 after the Yom Kippur war, Shell was the only oil major prepared for it. In the early 1970s, Pierre Wack was a planner in Royal Dutch Shell in London, and had calculated the impact of a possible rise in the oil price and a likely increase in the world’s appetite for oil. He and his colleagues had mapped out a scenario in which the OPEC demanded much higher prices for their oil following the 1967 Arab–Israel six-day war. In effect, Shell’s managers were able to plan for this eventuality and apply this planning to the crisis following the Yom Kippur war while other oil companies struggled.
26
In order to survive, Shell adopted a policy of diversification, branching out into the areas of coal, nuclear power and metals. Firstly, in 1970 Shell purchased Billiton, an established metals mining company (which it later sold). In 1973, the company moved into nuclear power by forming a partnership with Gulf Oil to manufacture gas-cooled reactors and their fuels. Shell’s success in coal was limited. In the 1970s, the company also continued its work in developing the oil fields in the North Sea. While a huge investment was required due to the adverse weather conditions and the instability of the sea bed, the cost was justified due to the sheer size of the oil fields in the North Sea, as well as the fact that supply from the Middle East was reduced at the time.
27
Royal
Dutch
Shell
became a leader in profitability, and continues to use
scenario
planning
as an aid to opportunity-framing and strategy formulation.
28
With the world making commendable efforts to limit its consumption of fossil fuels in the face of ‘peak oil’ (the time when demand exceeds supply) and increasing its reliance on wind and solar power, the long-established ‘legacy expectations’ of enduring access to easily accessible oil remain stubbornly fixed in the minds of both developed and developing nations.
Scenario
planning
is using careful research inputs to examine the prejudices of policy-makers and the demands of populations to arrive
at
sustainable solutions to energy needs, and to avoid the catastrophe of a war over oil. Is such a crisis likely, or even possible? Consider the following .
MARINET – National Technology Initiative (NTI) is a key long-term program of the public-private partnership in the development of promising new markets based on high-tech solutions that will determine development of the global and Russian economy in the next 15-20 years.
MARINET was established in 2015 and involves a wide range of organizations providing advanced technologies for the maritime industry – from the leading corporations and universities to startup companies and research teams. Currently it joins several hundreds representatives from technology companies, leading universities, research and scientific centers, development institutions, business associations, ministries and government agencies.
Removing Uninteresting Bytes in Software FuzzingAftab Hussain
Imagine a world where software fuzzing, the process of mutating bytes in test seeds to uncover hidden and erroneous program behaviors, becomes faster and more effective. A lot depends on the initial seeds, which can significantly dictate the trajectory of a fuzzing campaign, particularly in terms of how long it takes to uncover interesting behaviour in your code. We introduce DIAR, a technique designed to speedup fuzzing campaigns by pinpointing and eliminating those uninteresting bytes in the seeds. Picture this: instead of wasting valuable resources on meaningless mutations in large, bloated seeds, DIAR removes the unnecessary bytes, streamlining the entire process.
In this work, we equipped AFL, a popular fuzzer, with DIAR and examined two critical Linux libraries -- Libxml's xmllint, a tool for parsing xml documents, and Binutil's readelf, an essential debugging and security analysis command-line tool used to display detailed information about ELF (Executable and Linkable Format). Our preliminary results show that AFL+DIAR does not only discover new paths more quickly but also achieves higher coverage overall. This work thus showcases how starting with lean and optimized seeds can lead to faster, more comprehensive fuzzing campaigns -- and DIAR helps you find such seeds.
- These are slides of the talk given at IEEE International Conference on Software Testing Verification and Validation Workshop, ICSTW 2022.
Climate Impact of Software Testing at Nordic Testing DaysKari Kakkonen
My slides at Nordic Testing Days 6.6.2024
Climate impact / sustainability of software testing discussed on the talk. ICT and testing must carry their part of global responsibility to help with the climat warming. We can minimize the carbon footprint but we can also have a carbon handprint, a positive impact on the climate. Quality characteristics can be added with sustainability, and then measured continuously. Test environments can be used less, and in smaller scale and on demand. Test techniques can be used in optimizing or minimizing number of tests. Test automation can be used to speed up testing.
Enhancing Performance with Globus and the Science DMZGlobus
ESnet has led the way in helping national facilities—and many other institutions in the research community—configure Science DMZs and troubleshoot network issues to maximize data transfer performance. In this talk we will present a summary of approaches and tips for getting the most out of your network infrastructure using Globus Connect Server.
DevOps and Testing slides at DASA ConnectKari Kakkonen
My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 4. In this session, we will cover Test Manager overview along with SAP heatmap.
The UiPath Test Manager overview with SAP heatmap webinar offers a concise yet comprehensive exploration of the role of a Test Manager within SAP environments, coupled with the utilization of heatmaps for effective testing strategies.
Participants will gain insights into the responsibilities, challenges, and best practices associated with test management in SAP projects. Additionally, the webinar delves into the significance of heatmaps as a visual aid for identifying testing priorities, areas of risk, and resource allocation within SAP landscapes. Through this session, attendees can expect to enhance their understanding of test management principles while learning practical approaches to optimize testing processes in SAP environments using heatmap visualization techniques
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into SAP testing best practices
2. Heatmap utilization for testing
3. Optimization of testing processes
4. Demo
Topics covered:
Execution from the test manager
Orchestrator execution result
Defect reporting
SAP heatmap example with demo
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
Why You Should Replace Windows 11 with Nitrux Linux 3.5.0 for enhanced perfor...SOFTTECHHUB
The choice of an operating system plays a pivotal role in shaping our computing experience. For decades, Microsoft's Windows has dominated the market, offering a familiar and widely adopted platform for personal and professional use. However, as technological advancements continue to push the boundaries of innovation, alternative operating systems have emerged, challenging the status quo and offering users a fresh perspective on computing.
One such alternative that has garnered significant attention and acclaim is Nitrux Linux 3.5.0, a sleek, powerful, and user-friendly Linux distribution that promises to redefine the way we interact with our devices. With its focus on performance, security, and customization, Nitrux Linux presents a compelling case for those seeking to break free from the constraints of proprietary software and embrace the freedom and flexibility of open-source computing.
Dev Dives: Train smarter, not harder – active learning and UiPath LLMs for do...UiPathCommunity
💥 Speed, accuracy, and scaling – discover the superpowers of GenAI in action with UiPath Document Understanding and Communications Mining™:
See how to accelerate model training and optimize model performance with active learning
Learn about the latest enhancements to out-of-the-box document processing – with little to no training required
Get an exclusive demo of the new family of UiPath LLMs – GenAI models specialized for processing different types of documents and messages
This is a hands-on session specifically designed for automation developers and AI enthusiasts seeking to enhance their knowledge in leveraging the latest intelligent document processing capabilities offered by UiPath.
Speakers:
👨🏫 Andras Palfi, Senior Product Manager, UiPath
👩🏫 Lenka Dulovicova, Product Program Manager, UiPath
Generative AI Deep Dive: Advancing from Proof of Concept to ProductionAggregage
Join Maher Hanafi, VP of Engineering at Betterworks, in this new session where he'll share a practical framework to transform Gen AI prototypes into impactful products! He'll delve into the complexities of data collection and management, model selection and optimization, and ensuring security, scalability, and responsible use.
SAP Sapphire 2024 - ASUG301 building better apps with SAP Fiori.pdfPeter Spielvogel
Building better applications for business users with SAP Fiori.
• What is SAP Fiori and why it matters to you
• How a better user experience drives measurable business benefits
• How to get started with SAP Fiori today
• How SAP Fiori elements accelerates application development
• How SAP Build Code includes SAP Fiori tools and other generative artificial intelligence capabilities
• How SAP Fiori paves the way for using AI in SAP apps
GraphRAG is All You need? LLM & Knowledge GraphGuy Korland
Guy Korland, CEO and Co-founder of FalkorDB, will review two articles on the integration of language models with knowledge graphs.
1. Unifying Large Language Models and Knowledge Graphs: A Roadmap.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08302
2. Microsoft Research's GraphRAG paper and a review paper on various uses of knowledge graphs:
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/graphrag-unlocking-llm-discovery-on-narrative-private-data/
Securing your Kubernetes cluster_ a step-by-step guide to success !KatiaHIMEUR1
Today, after several years of existence, an extremely active community and an ultra-dynamic ecosystem, Kubernetes has established itself as the de facto standard in container orchestration. Thanks to a wide range of managed services, it has never been so easy to set up a ready-to-use Kubernetes cluster.
However, this ease of use means that the subject of security in Kubernetes is often left for later, or even neglected. This exposes companies to significant risks.
In this talk, I'll show you step-by-step how to secure your Kubernetes cluster for greater peace of mind and reliability.
A tale of scale & speed: How the US Navy is enabling software delivery from l...sonjaschweigert1
Rapid and secure feature delivery is a goal across every application team and every branch of the DoD. The Navy’s DevSecOps platform, Party Barge, has achieved:
- Reduction in onboarding time from 5 weeks to 1 day
- Improved developer experience and productivity through actionable findings and reduction of false positives
- Maintenance of superior security standards and inherent policy enforcement with Authorization to Operate (ATO)
Development teams can ship efficiently and ensure applications are cyber ready for Navy Authorizing Officials (AOs). In this webinar, Sigma Defense and Anchore will give attendees a look behind the scenes and demo secure pipeline automation and security artifacts that speed up application ATO and time to production.
We will cover:
- How to remove silos in DevSecOps
- How to build efficient development pipeline roles and component templates
- How to deliver security artifacts that matter for ATO’s (SBOMs, vulnerability reports, and policy evidence)
- How to streamline operations with automated policy checks on container images
Le nuove frontiere dell'AI nell'RPA con UiPath Autopilot™UiPathCommunity
In questo evento online gratuito, organizzato dalla Community Italiana di UiPath, potrai esplorare le nuove funzionalità di Autopilot, il tool che integra l'Intelligenza Artificiale nei processi di sviluppo e utilizzo delle Automazioni.
📕 Vedremo insieme alcuni esempi dell'utilizzo di Autopilot in diversi tool della Suite UiPath:
Autopilot per Studio Web
Autopilot per Studio
Autopilot per Apps
Clipboard AI
GenAI applicata alla Document Understanding
👨🏫👨💻 Speakers:
Stefano Negro, UiPath MVPx3, RPA Tech Lead @ BSP Consultant
Flavio Martinelli, UiPath MVP 2023, Technical Account Manager @UiPath
Andrei Tasca, RPA Solutions Team Lead @NTT Data
Elevating Tactical DDD Patterns Through Object CalisthenicsDorra BARTAGUIZ
After immersing yourself in the blue book and its red counterpart, attending DDD-focused conferences, and applying tactical patterns, you're left with a crucial question: How do I ensure my design is effective? Tactical patterns within Domain-Driven Design (DDD) serve as guiding principles for creating clear and manageable domain models. However, achieving success with these patterns requires additional guidance. Interestingly, we've observed that a set of constraints initially designed for training purposes remarkably aligns with effective pattern implementation, offering a more ‘mechanical’ approach. Let's explore together how Object Calisthenics can elevate the design of your tactical DDD patterns, offering concrete help for those venturing into DDD for the first time!
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024Albert Hoitingh
In this session I delve into the encryption technology used in Microsoft 365 and Microsoft Purview. Including the concepts of Customer Key and Double Key Encryption.
Encryption in Microsoft 365 - ExpertsLive Netherlands 2024
Oil Shale Economics
1. ECONOMICS, BARRIERS, AND RISKS OF OIL SHALE DEVELOPMENT IN THE UNITED
STATES
Khosrow Biglarbigi, President, INTEK Incorporated, 2300 Clarendon Boulevard Ste. 310, Arlington VA 22201,
Phone 703-465-2200, Email: kbiglari@inteki.com
Marshall Carolus, Associate, INTEK Incorporated
Peter Crawford, Senior Manager, INTEK Incorporated
Hitesh Mohan, Vice President, INTEK Incorporated
Abstract
World oil prices have nearly doubled in 2008, and have risen by 400% since 2004. Crude oil prices reached more than $145
per barrel before pulling back significantly. High oil prices, and the national security issues associated with the United
States’ reliance on unstable foreign sources of crude oil, have reignited interest in America’s enormous domestic oil shale
resources.
Oil shale is one of the world’s largest known fossil fuel resources. Global resources well exceed 10 trillion barrels. More
than 1.8 trillion barrels of oil are trapped in shale in Federal lands in the western United States in the states of Colorado, Utah
and Wyoming, of which 800 billion is considered recoverable. This amounts to three times the proven reserves of Saudi
Arabia.
During the past decade, much attention has been given to advancing various extraction technologies to make oil shale
economically feasible. This paper describes many of these technologies and recent and ongoing advances. The objective of
this paper is to quantify the costs and benefits of oil shale industry development and consider the hurdles to such
development.
Petroleum
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Year
MMBbl/d
35 Production Capacity
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
33
31
29
27
25
23
19
17
15
2004
2005
21
`
Detailed economic analysis has been conducted on the
potential development of oil shale. This paper will describe the
four representative production technologies being considered by
companies for oil shale development. The paper will provide
details of various components of capital and operating costs for
each of these technologies and the price at which each of these
technologies will be economic. In addition to presenting an
evaluation of the economic viability of an oil shale industry, this
paper also describes the costs and benefits of such an industry to
local, state, and Federal governments. Measures such as jobs
created contribution to Gross Domestic Product, and imports
avoided will be described.
Introduction
The United States, along with the rest of the world, faces significant challenges to meet future demand for liquid fuels. These
challenges are caused by rising demand for oil and other petroleum products. The world demand for petroleum is expected to
continue to increase over the next twenty five years, from
approximately 85 million barrels to nearly 115 million barrels per
day (MMBbl/d) by 2025 (Fig. 1).
The question is where the increased supply will come from to
meet the additional demand? In the past, the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) served as the world’s
swing oil producer. However, over the past decade, OPEC’s excess
production capacity has not kept pace with actual production (Fig.
2). By 2005, OPEC excess productive capacity fell to
approximately one MMBbl/d. The growth in demand and the
tightness of the supply has contributed to increasingly high and
volatile world oil prices.
If left unaddressed, these increasing prices and tightness of
supply will significantly impact the United States. The U.S.
economy is highly dependent on petroleum consumption. In 2007,
petroleum accounted for 39% of the Nation’s energy demand2,
Figure 1: Increased World Oil Demand1
Figure 2: OPEC Excess Capacity14
2. Figure 3: U.S. Energy Consumption2
Oil
39%
Coal
22%
Natural Gas
23%
Nuclear
8%
Other
7%
30
25
20
15
10
5
Figure 4: Projected U.S. Supply and Consumption1
U.S. Consumption 21.14
Imports
27.65
9.65
8.58
largely to support the transportation sector (Fig. 3). The United States now faces increasing competition for world oil
supplies from rapidly growing economies. This increased competition raises concern over the future reliability of liquid fuels
for both military and civilian uses. In 2007, the United States consumed 21.14 MMBbl/d of petroleum and petroleum
products, 12.5 MMBbl/d of which was imported. By 2030, U.S. oil consumption is forecast to grow to 27.65 MMBbl/d, of
which 18 MMBbl/d will be imported (Fig. 4).
The percentage of U.S. consumption met by imports will increase from 59% to 65% by 2030. The challenge facing the
United States is to locate and develop domestic sources of liquid fuels that will meet demand increases and offset the growth
in imports.
Rising world oil prices, combined with the increased need for secure alternative liquid fuel sources have spurred
considerable interest in alternative fuels resources, including renewables, alternatives, and unconventional fossil fuels
(including: oil shale, tar sands, coal–to–liquids, and heavy oil), as well as enhanced oil recovery. While all of these resources
can contribute to U.S. liquid fuel supply, the focus of this paper is on the massive resources and significant potential of the
U.S. oil shale deposits, particularly in the Western states.
Oil Shale Resources
U.S. oil shale is carbonate rock, generally marlstone that is very rich in organic sedimentary material called “kerogen.” Oil
shales are “younger” in geologic age than crude oil-bearing formations; natural forces of pressure and temperature have not
yet converted the sediments to crude oil. Kerogen can be used to create superior quality jet fuel, #2 diesel, naphtha, and other
high value by-products. The amount of kerogen in “oil shale” ore can range from 10 to 60 or more gallons per ton3 of shale.
The most concentrated hydrocarbon deposits on earth are found in America’s western oil shale resources. It is estimated that
the total amount of oil shale resource in the United States is over 6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent3. This resource has already
been identified and extensively characterized. Table 1 displays the richness of the various oil shale deposits in the United
States. Yields greater than 25 gallons per ton (gal/ton) are generally viewed as the most economically attractive, and hence,
Figure 5: Principal Oil Shale Deposits in the Western United States4
Deposits Richness (Gallons/ton)
Location 5 - 10 10 - 25 25 - 100
Colorado,
Wyoming &
Utah (Green
4,000 2,800 1,200
River)
Central &
Eastern
States
2,000 1,000 NA
Alaska Large 200 250
Total 6,000+ 4,000 2,000+
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
65%
59%
U.S. Production
MMBbl/d
Table 1: U.S. Oil Shale Resources in Place –
Billion Bbls3
3. the most favorable for initial development. Of the 6 trillion barrels of resource in place, over 2.0 trillion barrels have yields
greater than 25 gal/ton3. The majority of this high-quality resource, 1.2 trillion barrels, is located in the Green River
Formation. This region underlies 17,000 square miles or 11 million acres in the Piceance (CO), Uinta (UT), Green River,
Washakie (WY), and Sand Wash (CO) Basins (Fig. 5).
About 73 percent of the lands that contain significant oil shale deposits in the west are owned and managed by the U.S.
Government. These lands contain about 80 percent of the known recoverable resource in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming.
Private company ownership of oil shale lands totaled about 21% of the Piceance Basin (Colorado), 9% of the Uinta Basin
(Utah), 24% of the Green River Basin (Wyoming), and 10% of the Washakie Basin (Wyoming)3 as of 1978.
Oil Shale Technology
Oil shale rock must be heated to temperatures between 400
and 500 degrees centigrade (650-750 degrees fahrenheit).
This heating process is necessary to convert the embedded
sediments to kerogen oil and combustible gases. Over the past
60 years, energy companies and petroleum researchers have
developed, tested, enhanced, and in many cases, demonstrated
a variety of technologies for recovering shale oil from oil
shale and processing it to produce fuels and byproducts. Both
surface processing and in-situ technologies have been
examined. Generally, surface processing consists of three
major steps: (1) oil shale mining and ore preparation, (2)
pyrolysis of oil shale to produce
kerogen oil, and (3) processing
kerogen oil to produce refinery
feedstock and high-value
chemicals. This sequence is
illustrated in Figure 6-A. For
deeper, thicker deposits, not as
amenable to surface or deep-mining
methods, the kerogen oil
can be produced by in-situ
technology. In-situ processes
minimize, or in the case of true in-situ,
eliminate the need for mining
and surface pyrolysis, by heating
the resource in its natural
depositional setting. This sequence
is illustrated in Figure 6-B4.
The U.S. Department of
Figure 6: Oil Shale Recovery Processes5
A - Surface Process
Ore Resource Mining Retorting Oil Upgrading
Premium
Refinery
Feed
B - In-Situ Process
Resource In-Situ Conversion Oil Upgrading
Premium
Refinery
Feed
Figure 7: Companies with Oil Shale Technologies5
Energy, Office of Naval Petroleum
and Oil Shale Reserves (NPOSR),
has recently published a
comprehensive report detailing oil
shale conversion technologies5.
This report describes the
technologies being pursued by 27 different companies in the United States. Figure 7 provides a listing of the companies
currently pursuing oil shale technology in the design phase, laboratory, or pilot testing.
RD&D Leasing Program
In response to the President’s National Energy Policy in 2003, the Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management
(BLM) prepared a report6 and a plan to address access to unconventional resources (such as oil shale) on public lands. The
report also included a plan for addressing impediments to oil shale development on public lands, industry interest in research
and development and commercial development opportunities on public lands, and, options to capitalize on those
opportunities.
On November 22, 2004, the BLM published a proposed oil shale lease form and request for information in the Federal
Register7 to solicit comments about the design of an oil shale program. Based on its findings and responses to the Federal
4. Register notice, the BLM determined that offering Research, Development, and Demonstration (RD&D) leases prior to
issuing commercial leases would facilitate economic and technology demonstration, provide an opportunity to better
understand the environmental impacts, and then gauge the effectiveness of mitigation measures. The BLM RD&D lease
program allows tracts of up to 160 acres to be used to test or
demonstrate the economic feasibility of technologies over a
lease term of 10 years, with an option for up to a 5-year
extension. The payment of royalties is waived during the
RD&D lease and the rental fee is waived for the first 5 years.
Lessees that demonstrate successful technology may reserve
an additional contiguous 4,960 acres for a preference right
commercial lease.
The BLM received 19 nominations in response to its June,
2005 oil shale RD&D lease announcement. On December 15,
2006, Chevron Shale Oil Company, EGL Resources, Inc., and
Shell Frontier Oil & Gas were awarded leases (three to Shell).
A sixth lease was later granted to Oil Shale Exploration, LLC
(OSEC). The Chevron, EGL, and Shell leases are located on
BLM lands in Colorado, while the OSEC lease involves
Figure 8: Location of Oil Shale RD&D Leases15
parcels in Utah. Five of the projects selected involve in-situ retorting (Fig. 8). A brief description of these technologies is
provided below8.
ƒ Chevron Oil Shale Company, USA. Chevron’s technology for the
recovery and upgrading of oil from shale (CRUSH) process is an in-situ
conversion process. This process involves the application of a
series of fracturing technologies which rubblize the formation,
thereby increasing the surface area of the exposed kerogen (Fig. 9).
This exposed kerogen in the fractured formation is then converted
through a chemical process resulting in the kerogen changing from a
solid material to a liquid and gas. The hydrocarbon fluids are then
recovered and improved to refinery feedstock specs5.
ƒ American Shale Oil, LLC (AMSO). AMSO has developed a new
process for in-situ retorting of Green River oil shale. The AMSO Oil
Shale Process (patent applied for) involves the use of proven oil field
drilling and completion practices coupled with AMSO’s unique
heating and recovery technology (Fig. 10). The AMSO approach is a
closed loop in-situ retorting process with advantages of energy
efficiency and manageable environmental impacts. The oil shale is
heated with superheated steam or other heat transfer medium
through a series of pipes placed below the oil shale bed to be
Figure 9: Chevron’s CRUSH Technology5
Chevron’s Technology Schematic
Figure 10: AMSO Resources Process5
retorted. Shale oil
and gas are produced
through wells drilled
vertically from the
surface and
“spidered” to provide
a connection
between the heating
wells and production
system. Convection
and refluxing are
mechanisms that
improve heat transfer
to retort the oil shale.
After initial start-up, the process uses the gas produced from retorting to
supply all the heat required to extract the shale oil and gas from the
deposit. Surface disturbance is minimized with this process by heating
through lateral piping. Energy efficiency is optimized by recovery of
heat from the shale rock after retorting is completed5.
Figure 11: Shell’s ICP Process5
5. ƒ Shell Frontier Oil & Gas Inc. Shell’s innovative In-situ Conversion Process generates more oil and gas from a smaller
surface pad area than previous oil shale processes (Fig. 11). Shell’s Conversion Process does not involve surface mining.
Rather, heaters are inserted underground to convert kerogen in oil shale into high quality transportation fuels. In the
Shell ICP process: 5: Electric heaters gradually heat shale beneath the surface at target depths typically from 1,000 to
2,000 feet; the rock formation is heated slowly over time to 650 to 750° F, changing the kerogen in oil shale into oil and
gas; products are pumped to the surface using traditional methods. The process produces approximately one third gas and
two thirds light oil. Fewer processing steps are required than in surface processes to produce high quality fuels.
ƒ Oil Shale Exploration Company, LLC. OSEC has tested the Alberta Taciuk Process (ATP), a horizontal rotating kiln
process, for development of Utah
oil shale. OSEC has arranged for
Figure 12: Oil Shale Exploration’s Alberta Taciuk Process (ATP) Retort5
an exclusive right from AECOM,
a worldwide engineering firm, to
license the ATP Process for
purposes of research,
development and demonstration
on the BLM lease at the White
River Mine south of Vernal, Utah.
The ATP Process is a unique
thermal processing technology,
applicable to numerous industrial
uses, for vaporizing and
recovering organic constituents
that exist in a large range of feedstock materials (Fig. 12). Developed in 1976, the ATP Process was originally designed
for treating Alberta oil sands and was later refined for use in oil shale and contaminated waste treatment options.
According to OSEC, the ATP Process has been successfully used in a project in Stuart, Australia which produced more
than 1.5 million barrels of shale oil. OSEC believes that the ATP Process is a proven, environmentally-sound, economic
and efficient process for extracting oil from oil shale and oil sands5. OSEC has also recently entered into agreements to
test Petrobras’s PetroSix vertical Gas Combustion Retort technology.
In addition to the technologies being
Figure 13: EcoShale’s In-Capsule Process16
tested as part of the RD&D program, an
additional technology is currently being field
tested. The EcoShale In-Capsule Process is
an innovative new approach to oil shale
processing that is being developed and tested
COOL GAS
by Red Leaf Resources, Inc. in the State of
Utah. Red Leaf’s Eco-Shale is a hybrid
HOT GAS
approach that integrates surface mining with a
lower-temperature, “roasting” method that
occurs in an impoundment that is constructed
in the void space created by the shale mining
excavation (Fig. 13). When filled with shale,
the capsule is heated using pipes circulating
hot gases derived from burning natural gas or
its own produced gases. By using an impoundment engineered with an impermeable barrier, RedLeaf expects tailings to be
sequestered and ground water to be protected. To maximize energy efficiency, the process heat used in one capsule can be
recovered by circulating lower temperature gases which transfer remaining heat into adjacent capsules. External energy
inputs are limited to process initiation, thereafter produced gases supply most of the energy for shale heating. The EcoShale
In-Capsule process’s lower-temperature, slower “roasting” approach also minimizes CO2 emissions and is amenable to
carbon capture and sequestration. The unique impoundment approach allows for rapid reclamation and approximate
restoration of the topography.
Oil Shale Development Economics
The potential for oil shale production and the resulting benefits to the national economy are discussed in the section. The
results presented are not intended to be a forecast of what will occur. Rather, they represent estimates of potential under
certain economic, technological, and market assumptions and constraints.
6. Analytical Approach
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has developed a new National
Oil Shale Model9. This analytical system was developed to evaluate
potential U.S. oil shale development under different economic and
public policy regimes. This model has the capability to perform
sensitivity analyses relative to price, tax, royalty and incentives, perform
cash flow analyses under alternative leasing options and evaluate costs
and benefits of various public policy options to stimulate oil shale
project investment. (Figure 14 ). The model consists of three parts: a
detailed resource module, technology screening module, and a detailed
economic module.
ƒ The Resource Module contains detailed petrophysical and
Figure 14: DOE’s National Oil Shale Model9,10
geological characterestics for 25 development tracts in the states of
Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. Seventy billion barrels of resource
in place are collectively found in these tracts. Characteristics of
these 25 tracts were studied in detail as part of the 1973 Department
of Interior Prototype Oil Shale Leasing Program. Because of prior industry nomination, it is assumed that these tracts
represent locations of commercial interests. These nominated tracts therefore provide a solid technical basis for the
present analysis.
ƒ Screening Module: Screening criteria for various technologies were developed based on the geological characteristics
such as depth, dip angle, yield and thickness of the resource. The technologies considered are: 1) Surface mining with
surface retorting, 2) Underground mining and surface retorting, 3) Modified In-Situ (MIS), and 4) True In-Situ (TIS)
similar to Shell’s ICP process. Each of these 25 tracts was screened for each of the above technology options. Each tract
was then assigned the most appropriate technology and evaluated under the specific process. Each tract was also
assigned a specific development schedule based on the type of technology applied.
ƒ Economic Module: The production forecasts, predicted for each tract (based on its development schedule), are used in
the economic model for cash flow analysis. The economic model estimates annual and cumulative cash flow before and
after taxes, capital costs, operating cost, transfer payments (royalties), revenues, and profits. The tracts that meet the
economic hurdles are then carried forward and results are aggregated to national total. The economic model has average
capital and operating costs based on technology and development schedule over the life of the project. The different
technologies used for mining, retorting, and upgrading were considered in the components of the costs.
In addition to estimating benefits at the national level, the model also estimates a number of economic benefits at state
levels. The benefits to local, state, and Federal treasuries are attributed to the implementation of economically feasible
projects over the next 25 years. These benefits include: 1) Direct Federal Revenues; defined as the sum of business taxes as
well as one-half of royalty payments on oil shale production from Federal lands, 2) Direct State Revenues; defined as the sum
of business taxes, production taxes, as well as one-half of royalty payments on oil shale production from Federal lands, and
3) Direct Public Sector Revenues; defined as the sum of the Direct Federal and Direct State Revenues.
Oil shale production can benefit the nation as a whole on many levels. For example, each additional barrel of domestic
production can replace a barrel of oil imports. and reduce the trade deficit by the cost of that barrel. To estimate the direct
effects on the GDP (excluding the multiplier effect and potential negative impacts on other domestic export industries), the
model uses the gross revenue from the potential oil shale production, inclusive of oil, natural gas, and ammonia. Similarly,
the value of potential production is used to measure the impact on the trade deficit. The model also estimates potential
employment associated with the oil shale projects. Labor costs (wages and fringe benefits) are calculated by isolating the
labor component of all major cost elements. Labor costs are then converted into estimated annual employment using average
wages (including benefits) for comparable industries as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor.
Project Costs
Oil shale projects, on a commercial scale, could range in size from 10,000 to 100,000 barrels per day (Bbl/d) for a surface
retort to as much as 300,000 Bbl/d for full-scale in-situ projects. The capital and operating costs will vary depending on the
process technology and the quality of the resource. The model estimates the operating costs to be in the range of $12 to $20
per barrel ($/Bbl) of shale oil produced. The capital costs are estimated to range from $40,000 to $55,000 per stream day
barrel of daily capacity10. Mining (or drilling), retorting, and upgrading are also included in these costs. It is important to
note that these costs pertain to fully operational first generation projects; They will change with time as technologies matures.
Minimum Economic Price
The minimum economic price is defined as the world crude oil price needed to yield a 15% rate of return (ROR) on the
7. project. The 15% ROR is to cover the cost of capital and the technical and financial risk on the project. Depending on the
technology used, and the quality of the resource, the minimum economic price for oil shale projects is variable. Under the
assumptions utilized in this analysis, the model estimates that for a mature 100,000 Bbl/d capacity plant, the average
minimum economic prices are $38/Bbl for True In-Situ, $47/Bbl for Surface Mining, $57/Bbl for Underground Mining, and
$62/Bbl for Modified In-situ. While these estimates are
highly sensitive to both technological and economic
assumptions, discussions with industry have proven these
estimates reasonable. A rationale for these estimates is
provided in Reference 10.
Potential Shale Oil Production
The production potential of the 25 tracts (70 billion barrels of
resource in place) was measured in three development
scenarios. These scenarios are: 1) Business as usual scenario
(BAU) -- assumes no changes to current law and that future oil
prices remain in the range of high $40s to $60/Bbl as predicted
by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its 2006
Annual Energy Outlook (Reference Price Track)1, 2) The Tax
incentive scenario, assumes targeted tax incentives are
available until project payback to encourage investments.
Examples are price guarantees and production tax credit, and
3) The RD&D scenario assumes limited public support for
R&D and field demonstration projects at commercially viable
scale to reduce project risk. These scenarios were selected for
sensitivity analysis purposes, and are not intended to be policy
recommendations.
Under the BAU scenario, shale oil production could reach
500,000 Bbl/d by 2020 and would remain steady through 2035
(Fig. 15). With targeted tax incentives, shale oil production
could reach 1.5 MMBbl/d by 2035 as shown in Fig. 15. Risk
reduction through RD&D could have a significant positive
impact on future shale oil development in the United States.
RD&D projects would work to accelerate the rate of oil shale
development. With successful RD&D, it is estimated that the
oil shale production could reach 2.4 MMBbl/d by 2025. It is
important to note that because oil shale project development
requires long lead times, no significant production is
expected until 2015 under any of the three analyzed
scenarios.
In addition to shale oil, a significant quantity of
hydrocarbon gas could also be produced. Gas production
varies as a percentage of total production depending on the
surface retorting or in-situ technology; however, gas
production could reach as much as 3.2 billion cubic feet per
day (BCF/d). Although a significant quantity of produced
gas could be consumed within oil shale facilities for process
heat, power generation, or other process requirements.
Alternatively, much of this gas could be upgraded to
pipeline quality and contribute to meeting regional and
national natural gas demands (Fig. 16).
Economic Benefits
The potential economic benefits associated with the oil shale
development activities for the three analyzed scenarios are
summarized in Table 2. These estimates reflect the benefits
cumulated over the next 30 years. Cumulative shale oil
production could reach 12.8 billion barrels. This level of
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Figure 15: Potential Shale Oil Production9
Figure 16: Associated Natural Gas with Shale Oil Production9
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Item Unit Business
as Usual
RD&D
Targeted Incentives
RD&D
With
Targeted
Tax
Incentive
With
RD&D
Production Billion Bbls 3.2 7.4 12.8
Direct
Federal
Billion $ 15 27 48
Revenues
Direct
Local/State
Revenues
Billion $ 10 21 37
Direct
Public
Sector
Revenues
Billion $ 25 48 85
Contribution
to GDP Billion $ 310 770 1300
Value of
Imports
Billion $ 70 170 325
Avoided
New Jobs FTE
(Thousand) 60 190 300
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
MMBbl/d
Business as Usual
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
MMiillliloionn S SCCFF/d/d
Targeted Incentives
Business as Usual
Table 2: Example Benefits of Oil Shale Development
(Cumulative Over 30 Years)9
8. production could generate an additional $15 billion to $48 billion of Direct Revenues to the Federal treasury. Direct State
Revenues could increase by as much as $37 billion across the analyzed scenarios. The contribution to GDP is estimated to be
between $310 billion and $1.3 trillion. The value of imports avoided due to domestic production could reach $325 billion
over the next 30 years. The impact on employment is also significant. It is estimated that up to 300,000 new high paying jobs
could be generated in support of oil shale development.
Oil Shale and the Environment
Land Use and Surface Impacts
The technology that will be used to mine and produce oil shale is dependent on depth, thickness, richness, and accessibility of
the deposit. Deeper and thicker beds will likely be produced in-situ. A combination of approaches will likely be used in the
western U.S. basins. Various land impacts are associated with each type of oil shale processing. Open-Pit (surface) mining
involves significant surface disturbance and can impact surface-water runoff patterns and subsurface water quality.
Experience in coal mining and other mining industries has demonstrated that impacted lands can be very effectively
reclaimed with minimal long-term effect.
In 1972, the Department of the Interior estimated the cumulative surface area impacted by a domestic oil shale industry,
over a 40 year period, would be approximately 31 square miles per million barrels of daily shale oil production capacity. The
Department of Interior has also estimated that the cumulative surface area impacted by a domestic oil shale industry, over the
same 40 year period, would be approximately 21 square miles per 1.5 MMBbl/d capacity for an In-situ processes. In total, a
2.5 MMBbl/d industry would impact approximately 0.5% of the surface area overlaying the Green River Formation12.
Air Quality Impact
Oil shale is a carbonate rock that, when heated to 450 to 500 degrees centigrade, creates kerogen oil and hydrocarbon gases
along with a slate of other gases, that may include: (1) oxides of sulfur and nitrogen, (2) carbon dioxide, (3) particulate
matter, and (4) water vapor. Commercially available stack gas clean-up technologies that are currently in use in electric
power generation and petroleum refining facilities have improved over the years and should be effective in controlling oxides
and particulates emissions from oil shale projects. Carbon dioxide (CO2) will also be produced in large quantities and may
need to be captured for use in other commercial applications (such as enhanced oil recovery or coalbed methane operations),
or otherwise sequestered. Depleted oil and gas reservoirs in the region provide potentially effective sequestration targets12.
Water Requirements
The water required for oil shale retorting is estimated at one to three barrels of water per barrel of shale oil. Still, some
processes may be net producers of water. For an oil shale industry producing 2.5 MMBbl/d, this equates to between 105 and
315 million gallons of water per day (MGD). A 2.5 MMBbl/d oil shale industry would require 0.18 million to 0.42 million
acre feet of water per year, depending on location and processes used.
In the West, water will be drawn from local and regional sources. The major water source is the Colorado River Basin,
including the Colorado, Green, and White Rivers. The Colorado River flows between 10 and 22 million acre feet per year.
Water may also be purchased from other existing reservoirs. In addition, transfers may be possible from other water basins,
including the Upper Missouri. Another water source will come from western oil shale itself, which has high water content.
Oil shale typically holds 2-5 gallons of water per ton, though some oil shale can contain as much as 30-40 gallons of water
per ton. Much of this connate water can be recovered during processing and used to support mining, disposal, or reclamation
operations. Though this produced water will contain organic and inorganic substances, the impurities can be removed with
conventional water treatment technologies. Recycling and re-use of process water will help to reduce water requirements13.
Produced water from other conventional and unconventional oil and gas operations may also provide a water source.
Limitation of the Economic Analysis
The economic analysis presented in this paper has important limitations that should be considered before using its results.
These limitations include:
ƒ The results pertain only to the 25 Federal tracts analyzed. These tracts collectively account for about 70 billion barrels of
oil shale resource in the states of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming. No extrapolation was attempted to include the balance
of the resource in these three states. The analysis makes the assumption that these tracts are accessible for development.
ƒ The analysis assumes that current technologies are successfully demonstrated to be viable at commercial scale over the
next five to ten years. To the extent that this is not achieved, the development of the resource will be impeded.
ƒ The analysis assumes that the environmental permitting process for the oil shale projects could be completed within three
to five years. To the extent that the permitting process is not streamlined, and additional time is required, the timing of the
oil shale production will be impacted.
9. ƒ The analysis is based on the AEO 2006 oil price projection (Reference Price Track) over the next 25 years. To the extent
that the prevailing oil prices over this period are different from the AEO projections, the estimated benefits will be
different from the level shown in this paper. Moreover, the BAU case analysis assumes an average minimum rate of
return of 15 percent by operators. To the extent that different operators may require differing return on their investments,
the potential benefits in this analysis may be overestimated or understated.
ƒ The economics are based on the use of average costing algorithms. Although developed from the best available data and
explicitly adjusted for variations in energy costs, they do not reflect site-specific cost variations applicable to specific
operators. To the extent that the average costs (used) understate or overstate the true project costs, the actual results will
be impacted accordingly.
ƒ The estimates of potential contribution to GDP, values of imports avoided, and employment do not take into account
potential impacts to other sectors of the U.S. economy from altering trade patterns. It is possible that reduction in
petroleum imports, depending on where the petroleum was coming from, could reduce the quantity being exported of
some other good. It is likely, however, that such effects would be small.
ƒ The analysis assumes that operators have access to capital to start and sustain the oil shale projects. The oil shale projects
are typically characterized as “capital intensive” and have longer payback period relative to oil and gas development
projects. To the extent that capital is constrained, then the potential benefit estimated in this report is overestimated.
None of the above limitations, however, invalidate the results in this analysis if they are viewed for what they are
intended for, which is an estimate of upside potential. Given the uncertainty of the size and combinations of the optimistic
and pessimistic biases introduced by these limitations, it is assumed that the approach is valid, and the estimates are
reasonable, again for what they are intended.
Conclusions
The U.S. oil shale resources are the most concentrated hydrocarbon deposits on earth, with over two trillion barrels of high
quality resource in place. Rapidly advancing conversion technologies, high oil prices, rising world demand for liquid
hydrocarbons, and the continued decline of U.S. conventional oil production, have all recently attracted significant attention
to the development of the oil shale resource. Currently, twenty seven companies are actively pursuing the development of oil
shale conversion technologies with significant progress. The development of this resource could have a significant positive
impact on the local, state, and national economy by means of revenues, royalties, contributions to GDP, the value of avoided
oil imports, and a possible production rate of about 2.4 MMBbl/d. Collaborative efforts are needed among local, state, and
Federal Governments, along with the private sector to encourage the development of this very important strategic resource.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank the DOE, Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves for permission to use its data and
model and other information critical to completing this manuscript. Also, the authors thank the staff of INTEK, Inc. for their
immense efforts in preparing this manuscript. The staff includes Mr. Jeffrey Stone (Research Assistant), and Mr. Harry
Johnson (Principal Petroleum Engineer). While acknowledging the significant contribution of these individuals, any errors of
fact or inconsistencies remain the responsibility of the principal author.
References
1. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook (2008), Washington, D.C.
2. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review (2008), Washington, D.C.
3. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Petroleum Reserves – Strategic Unconventional Fuels, Fact Sheet: U.S. Oil
Shale Resources (September, 2006), Washington, D.C.
4. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Petroleum Reserves Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves,
Strategic Significance of America’s Oil Shale Resource: Volume 2 – Oil Shale Resources Technology and
Economics (March 2004), Washington, D.C.
5. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Petroleum Reserves, Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves,
Secure Fuels from Domestic Resources, The Continuing Evolution of America’s Oil Shale and Tar Sands
Industries: Profiles of Companies Engaged in Domestic Oil Shale and Tar Sands Resource and Technology
Development (June, 2007)
6. Chad Calvent, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Land and Minerals Management, US Department of the Interior,
Testimony before the Committee on Resources, Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources, U.S. House of
10. Representatives, The Vase North American Resource Potential of Oil Shale, Oil Sands, and Heavy Oil – Part 2 (
June 30, 2005).
7. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, Potential for Oil Shale Leasing, Federal Register, Vol.
69, No. 224, pp. 67935 (November 22, 2004).
http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/06jun20041800/edocket.access.gpo.gov/2004/pdf/04-25761.pdf
8. Oil Shale and Tar Sands Leasing Programmatic EIS Information Center. http://ostseis.anl.gov/index.cfm
9. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Petroleum Reserves, Office of Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves,
National Oil Shale Model, A Decision Support System, (June 2005)
10. Biglarbigi, Khosrow, INTEK Inc., Oil Shale Development Economics, Presented at the EFI Heavy Resources
Conference (May 16th, 2007), Edmonton, Canada
11. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review (2005), Washington, D.C.
12. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Petroleum Reserves, Fact Sheet: Oil Shale and the Environment
(September, 2006), Washington, D.C.
13. U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Petroleum Reserves, Fact Sheet: Oil Shale Water Resources (September,
2006), Washington, D.C.
14. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook (2005), Washington, D.C.
15. Biglarbigi, Khosrow, INTEK Inc., Potential Development of United States Oil Shale Resrouces, Presented at the
2007 EIA Energy Outlook Conference (March 28th, 2007), Washington, D.C.
16. Crawford, Peter, INTEK Inc., Advances in World Oil Shale Production, Presented at the 2008 Society of
Petroleum Engineers Annual Technical Conference and Expo (September 22nd, 2008), Denver, Colorado.