Space Works Nano Microsatellite Market forecast 2016

2016
Nano/Microsatellite
Market Forecast
Copyright 2016, SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)

2
2016 VERSION. APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE
SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC., COPYRIGHT 2016
2016 Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecast
Developed by:
Mr. Bill Doncaster
Senior Systems Engineer
bill.doncaster@sei.aero | +1.770.379.8006
Mr. Jordan Shulman
Chief Financial Officer
jordan.shulman@sei.aero | +1.770.379.8012
Published by:
SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. (SEI)
Atlanta, GA

3
SpaceWorks’ 2015 Projection estimated between 163 and 212
nano/microsatellites across all sectors would launch globally in
2015; 131 nano/microsatellites actually launched. This represented
a decrease of 17% compared to the record year in 2014.
2015
2016+
SpaceWorks’ 2016 Forecast reflects an escalating backlog due to
limited launch opportunities in 2015. This year’s forecast is more
than 35% higher than our 2014 estimate, which is largely driven by
the commercial sector’s continued interest in nano/microsatellite
applications.

4
SpaceWorks Satellite Forecasting/Assessment Overview
 Since 2008, SpaceWorks has actively monitored global
satellite activities and has provided customized market
assessments in all mass classes (0.1-kg to 10,000-kg) for
commercial and government customers in the satellite and
launch vehicle communities
 These forecasts often consider a combination of mission
characteristics (country, sector, frequency band(s), orbital
parameters, propulsion type, etc.) in order to reveal specific
trends in the industry
• SpaceWorks’ proprietary Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB), a
catalogue of nearly 4,000 historical and future missions, serves as the
data source for all assessments
• The LDDB includes public and non-public satellite projects/programs
and is continually updated with new project announcements, program
cancellations, launch successes (and failures)
SpaceWorks-developed market assessments deliver valuable industry knowledge to
our customers, enabling organizations to make informed future investment decisions

5
Nano/Microsatellite Definitions and Terminology
 Many nanosatellites are based on the
“CubeSat” standard
• Developed in by California Polytechnic State
University and Stanford University in 1999
• Consists of any number of 10 cm x 10 cm x 10
cm units
• Each unit, or “U”, usually has a volume of
exactly one liter
• Each “U” has a mass close to 1 kg and not to
exceed 1.33 kg (e.g. a 3U CubeSat has mass
between 3 and 4 kg)
 This report bounds the upper range of interest
in microsatellites at 50 kg given the relative
large amount of satellite development activity
in the 1-50 kg range by comparison to the 50-
100 kg range
Satellite Class Mass Range
Femtosatellite 10 – 100 g
Picosatellite < 1 kg
Nanosatellite 1 – 10 kg
Scope of this study 1 – 50 kg
Microsatellite 10 – 100 kg
Small Satellite 100 – 500 kg
Aalborg University’s
AAUSAT4 CubeSat

6
2015 Highlights
 Three major launch failures from late 2014 through 2015
slowed the pace of launches and contributed to a growing
backlog of nano/microsatellites
• The October 2014 failure of Antares, June 2015 failure of Falcon 9, and the
November 2015 failure of Super Strypi resulted in the loss of 51 small satellites
in addition to the primary payloads
• Launch delays of Antares and Falcon 9, for 18+ months and 6 months
respectively, decreased ride-share opportunities in 2015
 First flight of SHERPA, a large payload adapter for
nano/microsatellites, was delayed from 2015 to 2016 and is
slated to deploy 87 satellites
 Large constellations for communications and imagery
continued to evolve their technology and business cases
• Planet Labs attempted the launch of 50+ additional CubeSats. They continue to
build their constellation and indicate an interest in launch to higher and more
operationally effective orbits
• Spire secured $40M in Series B funding and announced a 100 satellite
constellation to be launched by end of 2017
Flock-1 CubeSats deployed from
ISS on April 14, 2015
Credit: AMSAT-UK
Spire 3U Lemur-2 CubeSat
Credit SpaceNews

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2015 Nano/Microsatellite Applications and Associated Examples
Communications
Fox-1A
Mass: 1.3 kg
Launched: 10/2015
Technology
AeroCube 8A
Mass: 3 kg
Launched: 5/2015
Earth Observation
Flock-2b
Mass: 5 kg
Launched: 8/2015
Scientific
ExoCube
Mass: 4 kg
Launched: 1/2015
Technology
GOMX-3
Mass: 5 kg
Launched: 8/2015
Scientific
LightSail 1
Mass: 5 kg
Launched: 5/2015
Credit: http://space.skyrocket.de/ Credit: Planet LabsCredit: http://www.amsat.org
Credit: http://polysat.calpoly.edu Credit: http://www.esa.int/ Credit: http://space.skyrocket.de/

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SpaceWorks Satellite Forecasting/Assessment Methodology
Launch
Demand DB
Probabilistic
Forecast Model
Expert
Judgment
SpaceWorks
Forecast
 The forecast is developed based on data from the SpaceWorks
Satellite Launch Demand Database (LDDB)
 SpaceWorks Probabilistic Forecast Model (PFM) generates best
case estimates for future spacecraft missions based on historical
trends, announced projects, and expected market segment growth
 PFM produces forecasted market data such as satellite launch
count, mass, orbital destination, mission type, sector, operating
country, and more
 PFM results are interpreted and refined using expert knowledge,
historical indicators, and value judgment for future missions
 The SpaceWorks Nano/Microsatellite Forecast represents the
most likely outcome based on current trends and launch capacity

9
352
379
407
435
422
480
530
575
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
NumberofSatellites
(1-50kg)
Calendar Year
Full Market Potential
SpaceWorks Forecast
Historical Launches
Nano/Microsatellite Launch History and Forecast (1 - 50 kg)
* Please see End Notes 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5.
The 2016 Full Market Potential dataset is a combination of publically announced launch intentions, market research, and qualitative/quantitative assessments to account for future activities and
programs.
The 2016 SpaceWorks Forecast dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.
Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate as
many as 3,000 nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2016 through 2022
16-001

10
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Historical (2009 - 2015) SpaceWorks Forecast (2016 - 2018)
PercentageofSatellites
Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Sector (1 – 50 kg)
Commercial sector
will contribute over
70% of future
nano/microsatellites
Civil
Government
Commercial
Defense/Intelligence
* Please see End Notes 2, 5, 6, and 7.
The commercial sector will increase its proportional representation over the next three years, to the
extent that it will soon account for the majority of spacecraft launched in the 1 – 50 kg class

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1%
73%
18%
8%
7%
37%
47%
9%
Nano/Microsatellite Trends by Purpose (1 – 50 kg)
Technology
CommunicationsCommunications
Historical
(2009 – 2015)
SpaceWorks
Forecast
(2016 - 2018)
Technology
Scientific
Earth Observation /
Remote Sensing
Scientific
Earth Observation /
Remote Sensing
* Please see End Notes 2, 5, and 6.
As key companies move toward operations, a smaller proportion of technology
development/demonstration nano/microsatellites will be built in the next few years
More than 70% of future nano/microsatellites will be used for
Earth observation and remote sensing purposes (compared to 37% from 2009 to 2015)

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Nanosatellite Size Trends (1 - 10 kg)
While still widely used by academia, 1 - 3 kg CubeSats will comprise
less than 30% of the market in the future (compared to 71% from 2009 to 2013)
Over 60% of future nanosatellites (1 - 10 kg) will be in the increasingly popular 4 - 6 kg
mass class (compared to only 23% from 2009 to 2013)
1 - 3 kg
4 - 6 kg
7 - 10 kg
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Calendar Year

13
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NumberofSatellites
Calendar Year
Historical Nano/Microsatellites Launched: 2000 - 2015 (1 - 50 kg)
1 – 10 kg
11 – 50 kg
With over 40% average annual growth in attempted deliveries since 2012 the nanosatellite (1-10 kg)
market continues to attract both government and commercial interest
* Please see End Notes 1 and 2.
Continued popularity
in the 1-10 kg mass
range

14
2015 Nano/Microsatellites Rides to Space
Low cost piggy-back opportunities on medium and heavy-lift launch vehicles have attracted small
satellite payloads; Many small dedicated launchers under development could change this trend
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Long March 11
Delta II
PSLV
Super-Strypi
Long March 6
H-2B
Falcon 9
Atlas V
No. of Satellites No. of Launches

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2016 Case Study #1: Small Satellite Launch Vehicles
 Just as the number of nano/microsatellite
operators is rapidly growing, many small
launch vehicles are being developed to
meet the growing demand
• Secondary payload “ride-share”
opportunities are currently responsible
for most nano/microsatellites launches
• Small launch vehicles are being
developed to offer dedicated launch
services to nano/microsatellites
 2015 was an active year in small launch
vehicle development
• Super Strypi, experienced a launch
failure shortly after liftoff in its first
attempt while carrying 12 small satellites
to a sun-synchronous orbit
• Rocket Lab announced an inaugural
launch scheduled for Q4 2016
• DARPA cancelled the ALASA project in
November 2015 and Escape Dynamics
ceased operations at the end of 2015
due to lack of funding
Though no clear winner has emerged, compelling evidence suggests the industry has a need for
small launch vehicles
Launch
System
LEO1
Payload (kg)
Stated
IOC Date
Target
Launch Price
Configuration
Electron 165 2016 $30K/kg Ground-launched two-stage rocket
LauncherOne 225 20172 $45K/kg Air-launched expendable rocket
SOAR 250 2017 $44K/kg Fully-reusable, rocket spaceplane
Super Strypi 300 2015 $54K/kg Ground-launched 3-stage solid
M-OV 363-454 tbd tbd Ground-launched hybrid rocket
Alpha 400 2016 $21K/kg Ground-launched two-stage rocket
bloostar 90 2017 tbd Ship-launched with balloon and rocket
GOLauncher 2 44 2018 $57K/kg Air launched, with solid and liquid
1. SSO payload values converted to low-inclination LEO equivalent values
2. Estimated/Test Flights 3. For 50kg payload 4. Commercial pricing
Rideshare
Provider
LEO1
Payload
(kg)
Stated
IOC Date
Target
Launch Price
Configuration
Spaceflight
Launch Services
165 2013 $35K/kg3 Rideshare broker for numerous
launch vehicles
Spaceflight
SHERPA
1200 2016 tbd
Purposed designed payload adapter
with propulsion for orbital maneuvers
Nanoracks 4-8 2013 $60K/kg4 ISS deployment with resupply mission
launch rideshare

16
Case Study #2: Addressability Forecasting of 1 kg – 50 kg Satellites
Many addressable satellite operators choose
non-U.S. launch vehicles due to attractive
pricing and availability
2015 Satellites Launched
on Non-U.S. Launchers
2015 Satellites Launched
on U.S. Launchers
Forecasted
Non-addressable Satellites
Forecasted
Addressable Satellites
 As the satellite industry rapidly grows geopolitical
factors become increasingly important
• U.S.-based launch vehicles have not been able to
address Chinese and Russian satellites
• As emerging markets develop their own launch
vehicles, U.S.-based launch vehicles will experience
escalating competition for foreign satellites
 Nano/microsatellites are forecasted to be >90%
addressable by U.S.-based launch vehicles
• Addressable constellations of commercial satellites
and increasing number of civil technology satellites
comprise the majority of forecasted
nano/microsatellites
• Non-addressable nano/microsatellites will grow as
nations develop launch capabilities
 Although almost all of the nano/microsatellites are
addressable by U.S. launch vehicles only 60%
actually launch on U.S. launch vehicles

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2016 Nano/Microsatellite Market Forecast Conclusions
 The commercial sector continues to realize the utility of nano/microsatellites and the valuable data and insight
they can deliver to terrestrial companies; announced plans suggest this trend will continue
 The civil sector continues to be involved in the industry, but in terms of quantity, the eruption of commercial
companies and start-up activities continues to drive the nano/microsatellite market
 Projections based on announced and future plans of developers and programs indicate as many as 3,000
nano/microsatellites will require a launch from 2016 through 2022
 Nano/Microsatellite CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate):
• Historical average growth of 39% per year over the last 5 years (2010 – 2015)
• SpaceWorks’ Forecast Dataset shows average growth of 13% per year over the next 6 years (2016 – 2022)
 2014 and 2015 Antares and Falcon 9 launch failures have created a backlog of small satellites that will need a
launch in 2016-2018
 While there is a consistent number of nano/microsatellites launched and deployed from the International Space
Station, there is significant growth in future dedicated launches for small satellites
* Please see End Notes 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7.

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SpaceWorks Forecasting / Assessment Offerings
Since 2008, SpaceWorks has actively monitored global satellite activity and
completes customized market assessments for commercial and government
customers in the satellite and launch vehicle communities.
SpaceWorks’ commercially-available market assessments provide valuable insights into
this dynamic market, enabling clients to make sound future investment decisions.
Assessments can be provided at a frequency determined by the customer; quarterly and
bi-annual reports are the most popular.
SpaceWorks can provide forecasts of
satellite market trends based on the
following characteristics, depending on
customer needs:
• Mass class
• Country of satellite
owner/operator
• Sector of satellite
owner/operator
• Uplink or downlink
frequency band(s)
• Addressability
• Satellite application
• Orbital parameters
• Satellite lifetime
• Power
• Propulsion system
• Launch vehicle
• Expendable/reusable launch services
• LEO payload delivery
• ISS commercial crew/cargo services
• Propellant depots w/ commercial resupply
• Space tourism
• Space-based solar power
• Satellite servicing
• High speed point-to-point transportation
In addition to the satellite market,
SpaceWorks can determine commercial
viability and forecast markets and
trends in other key industry segments:
• Picosatellite:
• Nanosatellite:
• Microsatellite:
• Small satellites:
• Medium satellites:
• Large satellites:
• Extra-large satellites:
Forecasting services are available in the
following standard satellite mass
classes (custom mass ranges also
available):
For additional information or to request a quote for our custom support packages and
market forecasting services, please contact:
Mr. Bill Doncaster | Senior Systems Engineer | SpaceWorks Enterprises, Inc. | 1+770.379.8006 | bill.doncaster@sei.aero
<1 kg
1 – 10 kg
11 – 100 kg
101 – 500 kg
501 – 1,000 kg
1,001 – 5,000 kg
5,001 kg+

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End Notes
1. The number of satellites may not equal the number of launches since many small satellites are multiple-manifested (i.e. more than one satellite co-
manifested on a particular launch vehicle). Historical data includes failed launch attempts.
2. The data used throughout this presentation (both historical and future) may not represent all global nano/microsatellite activities.
3. The SpaceWorks Forecast and Full Market Potential datasets include some known nano/microsatellite programs for which a specific launch date
has not been announced. The satellites belonging to these programs are distributed across the period (date range) for launches according to the
announced program objectives.
4. Future projections from 2019-2022 are determined by Gompertz logistic curve “best fit” regression with a set market saturation point (asymptote for
number of satellites).
5. The Full Market Potential dataset contains all currently known past and future nano/microsatellites from the SpaceWorks LDDB, with the addition of
an inflating factor for known unknowns plus assumed sustainment of certain current projects and programs and the continued emergence and
growth of numerous existing commercial companies. The SpaceWorks Forecast dataset reflects SpaceWorks’ expert value judgment on the likely
market outcome.
6. These graphs are based on the SpaceWorks Forecast data set only, and do not include the additional satellites contained in the Full Market
Potential dataset.
7. By some traditional definitions of space industrial sectors, non-defense government space activities are a subsector of the civil sector. Here we
break out non-defense government activities into a separate sector. “Government” refers to those nano/microsatellite development efforts that
occur within/by the government agency or organization (e.g. NASA, JAXA). Civil refers to all other non-defense development activities (e.g.
universities, federally funded research institutions), though the funding source may be a government agency.
8. Nanosatellites are binned by rounding mass to the nearest whole number. Picosatellites less than 1 kg are not included.

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SPACEWORKS ENTERPRISES, INC. (SEI) | www.sei.aero | info@sei.aero
ATLANTA: 1040 Crown Pointe Parkway, Suite 950 | Atlanta, GA 30338 USA | 1+770-379-8000
tvaero.com golauncher.com blinkastro.com
www.SpaceWorksEnterprises.com

Space Works Nano Microsatellite Market forecast 2016

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