This document summarizes a study that examines the relationship between oil consumption and economic growth in Turkey from 1961 to 2016. It begins by reviewing previous literature on the relationship between energy use and economic growth, which has found varying results. It then describes the data and methodology used in the study, which employs autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modeling and Toda-Yamamoto causality testing to analyze the cointegration and causality between oil consumption and GDP in Turkey while accounting for structural breaks. The results of these analyses reveal that economic growth Granger causes oil consumption in Turkey but not vice versa, indicating that energy conservation policies would not harm economic growth.
Forecasting demand for petroleum products in ghana using time series modelsAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that aimed to forecast demand for petroleum products in Ghana using time series models. The study analyzed annual demand data from 2000-2010 using nested conditional mean (ARMA) and conditional variance (GARCH, GJR, EGARCH) models. It proposed and studied a regression-based forecast filtering simulation to potentially improve forecast results. Key findings included that ARMA(2,2) models best forecasted mean demand, while GARCH(1,1)/GJR(1,1)/EGARCH(1,1) models best forecasted demand variance. The study compared forecast accuracy of these nested models to random walk and regression models using error and inequality metrics.
Rainfall Trends and Variability in Tamil Nadu (1983 - 2012): Indicator of Cli...IJESM JOURNAL
Rainfall trend for the past is very essential to understand the climate variability of a region and it is very significant research in developing countries. Rainfall variability is also an obligatory factor for the climate of semi arid and tropical regions. The number of rainy days and rainfall intensity are the vital feature to comprehend the climate vulnerability of a region. To attain the nature of climate variability this paper deals the rainfall trends of Tamil nadu for the past 30 years and investigated using spatial, temporal and statistical techniques. The previous woks also revealed that the rainfall variability across the world. The results are also showing the spatial and temporal variability across Tamil Nadu and the climate change projection in study area.
Przedmiotem analizy w tekście są „kultury energetyczne” państw członkowskich Unii
Europejskiej (UE-28). W tekście podjęto próbę zweryfikowania zasadności twierdzeń, które
wskazują na możliwość pogrupowania państw Unii Europejskiej według szczególnego rodzaju
praktyk użytkowania energii.
W celu uszczegółowienia problemu badawczego w pracy przedstawiono następujące pytania badawcze: (1) Czy zasadne jest twierdzenie, że w UE-28 mamy do czynienia ze specyficznymi „kulturami energetycznymi”? (2) Jeżeli zasadne jest twierdzenie o istnieniu specyficznych
„kultur energetycznych”, to w związku z jakimi cechami następuje podział między państwami
UE-28? Postawione pytania należy związać z zamiarem stwierdzenia istnienia podziału państw
w UE-28 na „czyste” i „brudne” kultury energetyczne. Za podziałem tym przemawiają poszczególne cechy państw członkowskich UE-28, które związane są produkcją, konsumpcją i transformacją energii, np. emisja GHG i zaangażowanie w sektor węglowy.
Do weryfikacji założeń przyjętych w analizie posłużono się jedną z metod aglomeracyjnych
(czyli metodą Warda) i jedną z metod optymalizacji danego grupowania obiektów (czyli metodę
k-średnich). Ponadto, za pomocą poszczególnych testów, podjęto się analizy różnic w poziomie
parametrów pomiędzy wyodrębnionymi skupieniami państw. Dodatkowo, wyodrębniono grupy
niezależnych czynników metodą głównych składowych oraz wskazano zakres istotnych różnic
w poziomie wyodrębnionych czynników między pogrupowanymi państwami UE-28.
Dr. Govinda Timilsina is a senior research economist at the World Bank who has over 20 years of experience in energy and climate change economics. He leads studies on topics such as the link between energy, economic growth, and poverty reduction. Dr. Timilsina has a PhD in energy/climate change economics from the Asian Institute of Technology and has published over 50 journal articles and book chapters on issues including renewable energy, biofuels, climate policies, and energy modeling.
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the relationships between electric power consumption, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in India and Pakistan from 1975-2008. For India, the findings indicate long-run causal relationships where electric power consumption and FDI boost economic growth, and electric power consumption and economic growth impact FDI. For Pakistan, the findings show foreign investment and economic growth cause electric power consumption in the long run. The study adds to the limited literature on the electricity consumption-FDI-economic growth nexus and provides a comparative analysis of the results for India and Pakistan.
Energy input, price and industrial output in pakistanAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption (oil, gas, coal, electricity) and industrial output in Pakistan using cointegration and causality tests. The results show:
1) There is a positive relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the long run.
2) Bidirectional causality exists between oil consumption and industrial output.
3) Unidirectional causality runs from electricity consumption to industrial output.
4) Industrial output causes coal consumption but there is no causality between gas consumption and output.
The government needs innovative energy policies to meet future energy demand and promote clean industrial growth using alternative energy sources like solar and wind.
Association between crude price and stock indicesAlexander Decker
This study examines the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market indices in India, specifically the BSE 500, BSE 200, and BSE 100, over the period of April 2001 to March 2011. The document reviews previous literature on the relationship between oil prices and stock markets. It then describes the methodology used in the current study, which includes unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and Granger causality tests to analyze the long-term and causal relationships between crude oil prices and the three stock market indices. The results of the empirical analysis show there is a cointegrated long-term relationship between crude prices and each of the three stock market indices, and a one-way causal relationship from the indices to crude prices.
Forecasting demand for petroleum products in ghana using time series modelsAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that aimed to forecast demand for petroleum products in Ghana using time series models. The study analyzed annual demand data from 2000-2010 using nested conditional mean (ARMA) and conditional variance (GARCH, GJR, EGARCH) models. It proposed and studied a regression-based forecast filtering simulation to potentially improve forecast results. Key findings included that ARMA(2,2) models best forecasted mean demand, while GARCH(1,1)/GJR(1,1)/EGARCH(1,1) models best forecasted demand variance. The study compared forecast accuracy of these nested models to random walk and regression models using error and inequality metrics.
Rainfall Trends and Variability in Tamil Nadu (1983 - 2012): Indicator of Cli...IJESM JOURNAL
Rainfall trend for the past is very essential to understand the climate variability of a region and it is very significant research in developing countries. Rainfall variability is also an obligatory factor for the climate of semi arid and tropical regions. The number of rainy days and rainfall intensity are the vital feature to comprehend the climate vulnerability of a region. To attain the nature of climate variability this paper deals the rainfall trends of Tamil nadu for the past 30 years and investigated using spatial, temporal and statistical techniques. The previous woks also revealed that the rainfall variability across the world. The results are also showing the spatial and temporal variability across Tamil Nadu and the climate change projection in study area.
Przedmiotem analizy w tekście są „kultury energetyczne” państw członkowskich Unii
Europejskiej (UE-28). W tekście podjęto próbę zweryfikowania zasadności twierdzeń, które
wskazują na możliwość pogrupowania państw Unii Europejskiej według szczególnego rodzaju
praktyk użytkowania energii.
W celu uszczegółowienia problemu badawczego w pracy przedstawiono następujące pytania badawcze: (1) Czy zasadne jest twierdzenie, że w UE-28 mamy do czynienia ze specyficznymi „kulturami energetycznymi”? (2) Jeżeli zasadne jest twierdzenie o istnieniu specyficznych
„kultur energetycznych”, to w związku z jakimi cechami następuje podział między państwami
UE-28? Postawione pytania należy związać z zamiarem stwierdzenia istnienia podziału państw
w UE-28 na „czyste” i „brudne” kultury energetyczne. Za podziałem tym przemawiają poszczególne cechy państw członkowskich UE-28, które związane są produkcją, konsumpcją i transformacją energii, np. emisja GHG i zaangażowanie w sektor węglowy.
Do weryfikacji założeń przyjętych w analizie posłużono się jedną z metod aglomeracyjnych
(czyli metodą Warda) i jedną z metod optymalizacji danego grupowania obiektów (czyli metodę
k-średnich). Ponadto, za pomocą poszczególnych testów, podjęto się analizy różnic w poziomie
parametrów pomiędzy wyodrębnionymi skupieniami państw. Dodatkowo, wyodrębniono grupy
niezależnych czynników metodą głównych składowych oraz wskazano zakres istotnych różnic
w poziomie wyodrębnionych czynników między pogrupowanymi państwami UE-28.
Dr. Govinda Timilsina is a senior research economist at the World Bank who has over 20 years of experience in energy and climate change economics. He leads studies on topics such as the link between energy, economic growth, and poverty reduction. Dr. Timilsina has a PhD in energy/climate change economics from the Asian Institute of Technology and has published over 50 journal articles and book chapters on issues including renewable energy, biofuels, climate policies, and energy modeling.
This document summarizes a research paper that examines the relationships between electric power consumption, foreign direct investment (FDI), and economic growth in India and Pakistan from 1975-2008. For India, the findings indicate long-run causal relationships where electric power consumption and FDI boost economic growth, and electric power consumption and economic growth impact FDI. For Pakistan, the findings show foreign investment and economic growth cause electric power consumption in the long run. The study adds to the limited literature on the electricity consumption-FDI-economic growth nexus and provides a comparative analysis of the results for India and Pakistan.
Energy input, price and industrial output in pakistanAlexander Decker
This document analyzes the relationship between disaggregate energy consumption (oil, gas, coal, electricity) and industrial output in Pakistan using cointegration and causality tests. The results show:
1) There is a positive relationship between disaggregate energy consumption and industrial output in the long run.
2) Bidirectional causality exists between oil consumption and industrial output.
3) Unidirectional causality runs from electricity consumption to industrial output.
4) Industrial output causes coal consumption but there is no causality between gas consumption and output.
The government needs innovative energy policies to meet future energy demand and promote clean industrial growth using alternative energy sources like solar and wind.
Association between crude price and stock indicesAlexander Decker
This study examines the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market indices in India, specifically the BSE 500, BSE 200, and BSE 100, over the period of April 2001 to March 2011. The document reviews previous literature on the relationship between oil prices and stock markets. It then describes the methodology used in the current study, which includes unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and Granger causality tests to analyze the long-term and causal relationships between crude oil prices and the three stock market indices. The results of the empirical analysis show there is a cointegrated long-term relationship between crude prices and each of the three stock market indices, and a one-way causal relationship from the indices to crude prices.
Economy growth and oil import requirement in indonesiaAlexander Decker
This document summarizes an article from the Journal of Energy Technologies and Policy that examines economy growth and oil import requirements in Indonesia through 2030. It develops an econometric energy balance model to project future energy needs and simulate strategies to reduce import dependence. The model estimates oil import will be more affected by transportation fuel consumption than economic growth, and projects Indonesia will become a net energy importer by 2015. The paper suggests reducing gasoline subsidies, increasing oil production, and diversifying transportation fuels could help reduce import reliance.
Cointegration relationship betweeCOINTEGRATION RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC ...aeijjournal
Energy dependent small developing island states are besieged to sustain potential rate of growth. This is
due to increase in energy prices and lack of evidence based policy on long term sustainable energy use.
This paper examines the long run relationship between economic growth, export and electricity
consumption in Fiji over the period 1981-2011. Employing Granger causality test it is found that there is
cointegrating relationship between economic growth, export and electricity consumption. The casual
relationship between the variables was investigated within the error correction model framework. We
found that in the long run causality runs from electricity consumption and export to economic growth.
Based on this empirical analysis some important policy implications are suggested.
Co integration Relationship Between Economic Growth, Export and Electricity C...AEIJjournal2
This study examines the long-run relationship between economic growth, exports, and electricity consumption in Fiji from 1981-2011. It finds:
1) The variables of economic growth, exports, and electricity consumption are cointegrated, indicating they share a common stochastic trend in the long-run.
2) In the long-run, causality runs from electricity consumption and exports to economic growth.
3) In the short-run, deviations from the long-run equilibrium between the variables are corrected at a rate of 22% per year, as shown by the error correction model.
The results suggest that policies aimed at reducing electricity consumption may negatively impact long-run economic growth in Fiji.
COINTEGRATION RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, EXPORT AND ELECTRICITY CO...AEIJjournal2
Energy dependent small developing island states are besieged to sustain potential rate of growth. This is due to increase in energy prices and lack of evidence based policy on long term sustainable energy use. This paper examines the long run relationship between economic growth, export and electricity
consumption in Fiji over the period 1981-2011. Employing Granger causality test it is found that there is cointegrating relationship between economic growth, export and electricity consumption. The casual relationship between the variables was investigated within the error correction model framework. We found that in the long run causality runs from electricity consumption and export to economic growth. Based on this empirical analysis some important policy implications are suggested.
Explaining the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in...Agriculture Journal IJOEAR
Abstract— The aim of this paper is to explore the energy consumption-economic growth nexus for four emerging countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China – the BRIC countries) over the period 1989-2014. By applying a set of recent panel data models, we show that increases in real per capita GDP have a positive and statistically significant effect on per capita energy consumption (and vice-versa). In the long term, a 1% increase in real per capita GDP raises the energy consumption per capita by about 0.56-0.67% while a 1% increase in per capita energy use increases the real per capita GDP by about 0,87-1.69%. Thus, the impact of real GDP on energy consumption is less important than vice versa.
11.association between crude price and stock indicesAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the relationship between crude oil prices and three stock market indices (BSE 500, BSE 200, BSE 100) of the Bombay Stock Exchange in India from 2001 to 2011. The study uses various econometric techniques including unit root tests, cointegration tests, vector error correction models, and Granger causality tests. The results show there is a cointegrated long-term relationship between the indices and crude prices. Granger causality tests reveal a one-way causality from the stock indices to crude prices, but not vice versa.
This document analyzes the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption in Nigeria using a multivariate cointegration approach. It tests for long-run cointegration and short-run causality between GDP, capital, labor, real exchange rate, and energy consumption at both aggregate and disaggregate levels. The empirical findings indicate long-run cointegration between the variables at aggregate and disaggregate levels, except for coal. In the short-run, Granger causality runs only from GDP to electricity consumption. The study proposes policies to address Nigeria's energy and development challenges, such as enhancing energy supply and efficiency, diversifying energy sources, and developing appropriate policies.
- The document analyzes the impact of feed-in tariff (FIT) policy on renewable energy sources of electricity (RES-E) using data from 35 OECD and 4 non-OECD countries from 1990-2012.
- Using fixed effects and propensity score matching estimators, the study finds strong evidence that FIT policy increases RES-E. Market liberalization is also found to be necessary for FIT policy success.
- The study aims to address whether FIT policy accelerates RES-E growth and if electricity market regulation hinders FIT policy effectiveness by examining the causal relationship between FIT policy and RES-E.
Renewable energy cosumption in india analysisArpit Patil
This document summarizes a research paper that analyzes trends in renewable energy consumption in India from 1980 to 2011. It applies linear regression to historical consumption data to derive an equation to predict future consumption. While the equation could predict consumption in 2005, there was a large deviation from the actual value, likely due to external economic factors. Predicting consumption for 2011 using the equation again showed an increased variation from the actual value.
This document summarizes a study that examines the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey from March 2001 to June 2010. The study uses the Granger causality test to analyze the relationships between the ISE-100 stock index and five macroeconomic variables: foreign exchange rate, gold price, money supply, industrial production index, and consumer price index. The results suggest there is unidirectional long-run causality from stock prices to the macroeconomic variables. This implies that stock prices can serve as a leading indicator for future movements in exchange rates, gold prices, money supply, industrial production, and inflation in Turkey.
Marketing Strategy for Renewable Energy development In Indonesia Context TodayMercu Buana University
Economic development depends on the availability of energy, especially in supporting the current government’s development priorities to build the infrastructure sector in Indonesia, while the goal of development is to improve the nation’s competitiveness this research aims to investigate the opportunity to reduce fossil energy and switch to renewable energy. One of the efforts to improve long-term national energy security length is through reducing dependence on fossil energy, and the government must take swift action to use renewable energy. The methodology in this research uses internal factor evaluation analysis, external factor evaluation and SWOT matrix. Furthermore, the data used is secondary data in the period 2017–2022 coming from various official sources. The development of renewable energy in the world followed by the technology, more advanced technology used, the cost of investment and renewable energy tariffs will be cheaper, thus will be more competitive with electricity from fossil energy. Currently the installed power generation capacity in Indonesia is 57 gigawatts, of which 86% still use fossil energy and the remaining is renewable energy. Renewable energy in Indonesia becomes a very potent alternative, where the energy source depends on the geographical area and the source of energy it produces. The potential of renewable energy in Indonesia is very big, Indonesia has 40% geothermal potential in the world.
1. The document evaluates energy productivity trends in GCC countries and compares them to other advanced economies using an energy Kuznets curve analysis framework.
2. It finds the advanced economies showed strong evidence of decoupling economic growth from energy consumption as incomes rose, but GCC countries showed little evidence of this.
3. This highlights structural challenges for GCC countries in decoupling income from energy consumption given their low domestic energy prices.
Energy Status and Alternative Energy Plans of Major Energy Consumers in South...AEIJjournal2
Southeast Asia comprises an extraordinarily diverse set of countries with vast differences in the scale and
patterns of energy use and energy resources endowments. Indonesia and Thailand have been selected to be
compared because they are the two largest consumers in energy sector in the region and both countries
still similarly rely on energy imports such as oil. They have been facing challenges in energy policy
reformation distorting energy markets. The combined energy status of Indonesia and Thailand not only
aims at providing policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by
the countries up to the next two decades, but also at confidently convincing them the future energy
pathways to unlocking energy efficiency potential and investment. This work contains data and information
on pattern of energy use in the past, present, and future, some economic and political factors that may be
affecting energy demand and supply of Indonesia and Thailand. Key energy issues that need to be
considered are introduced. The potential future energy pathways are included and compared between the
countries. Investment opportunities in each country are also identified.
ENERGY STATUS AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PLANS OF MAJOR ENERGY CONSUMERS IN SOUTH...AEIJjournal2
Southeast Asia comprises an extraordinarily diverse set of countries with vast differences in the scale and patterns of energy use and energy resources endowments. Indonesia and Thailand have been selected to be compared because they are the two largest consumers in energy sector in the region and both countries still similarly rely on energy imports such as oil. They have been facing challenges in energy policy reformation distorting energy markets. The combined energy status of Indonesia and Thailand not only aims at providing policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by the countries up to the next two decades, but also at confidently convincing them the future energy pathways to unlocking energy efficiency potential and investment. This work contains data and information on pattern of energy use in the past, present, and future, some economic and political factors that may be affecting energy demand and supply of Indonesia and Thailand. Key energy issues that need to be considered are introduced. The potential future energy pathways are included and compared between the countries. Investment opportunities in each country are also identified.
ENERGY STATUS AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PLANS OF MAJOR ENERGY CONSUMERS IN SOUTH...aeijjournal
Southeast Asia comprises an extraordinarily diverse set of countries with vast differences in the scale and
patterns of energy use and energy resources endowments. Indonesia and Thailand have been selected to be
compared because they are the two largest consumers in energy sector in the region and both countries
still similarly rely on energy imports such as oil. They have been facing challenges in energy policy reformation distorting energy markets. The combined energy status of Indonesia and Thailand not only aims at providing policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by the countries up to the next two decades, but also at confidently convincing them the future energy pathways to unlocking energy efficiency potential and investment. This work contains data and information on pattern of energy use in the past, present, and future, some economic and political factors that may be affecting energy demand and supply of Indonesia and Thailand. Key energy issues that need to be considered are introduced. The potential future energy pathways are included and compared between the countries. Investment opportunities in each country are also identified.
The aim of this book is twofold: to present comparative estimates of a common climate change impact using the cases of climate-induced impact on agriculture in the Philippines and Indonesia; and to explore some big challenges in the region’s mitigation e orts through the case of fuel subsidy in Malaysia, and the case of deforestation-based emission in Indonesia.
A Comparative Analysis of Renewable Energy Policies and its Impact on Economi...ssuser793b4e
Renewable energy has been identified as a critical component of
global efforts to address climate change, enhance energy security, and foster
sustainable economic growth. As a result, many countries have implemented
renewable energy policies to promote the development and deployment of
renewable energy technologies. However, the impact of these policies on
economic growth remains a subject of debate. This article provides a
comparative analysis of renewable energy policies and their impact on
economic growth. The study employs a systematic review of the literature and
utilizes qualitative and quantitative methods to compare renewable energy
policies and their economic impacts across different countries. The findings
suggest that the impact of renewable energy policies on economic growth
varies across countries and is influenced by factors such as policy design,
institutional context, and economic structure. This research article finally,
examined the challenges associated with implementing renewable energy
policies, analyzed the implications of the findings for policymakers and
further gave some potential solutions that will help the policymakers and
future researchers
This document analyzes the impact of financial development indicators on natural resource and commodity markets in China from 1967 to 2016. It finds that:
1) Real interest rates and money supply positively influence energy production, oil rents, crop production, and energy demand. Domestic credit has some negative influences.
2) Foreign direct investment inflows decrease natural resource rents and most agricultural/livestock production, except for fisheries production which increases.
3) Commodity prices distort most energy and commodity markets except ores/minerals exports, which increases with higher prices.
4) Growth factors like trade, income, insurance, and industrial value significantly improve the efficiency of energy and resource markets.
Overall,
Final proof electricity ijbel vol 2-201308819641377
This document discusses a study examining the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in six economic corridors in Indonesia from 1984-2010. It provides background on electricity infrastructure and policy in Indonesia, reviews previous literature that has found mixed results on the causal relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Indonesia, and describes the methodology used in this study, which employs Granger causality tests and error correction models on annual time series data from the six corridors. The key findings were uni-directional relationships between electricity consumption and economic growth in some corridors but not others. The study aims to better inform regional electricity and development policies in Indonesia.
Although performance appraisal is concerned with the evaluation of workers job performance, it at the same time serves to highlight the specific objectives of an organization. As the employee is being evaluated the organization is also evaluating itself by comparing objectives and standards of performance, reviews the whole appraisal framework and design as well as organizational values and culture. Performance appraisal is a veritable tool for organizations to evaluate and increase the quality of education and training of their workforce with a view to developing lifelong learning patterns and strategies to sustain productivity throughout longer working periods. Motivation as it relates to employee productivity is often behind the drive for performance and self-actualization and provides opportunities for higher productivity. Productivity is an important measure of goal achievement because getting more done with less resources increases organizational profitability. Using the exploratory research design and 109 participants the result of the study indicates a strong positive correlation between performance appraisal and employee productivity. It suggests that the issue of performance appraisal in charitable organizations should be addressed. In view of the result of the study, the paper recommends that performance appraisal should carefully review employee’s strengths and weaknesses against requirements for possible future higher responsibilities.
The integration between innovation and business is a key factor in competitiveness between organizations. That is, innovation applied to a business makes no sense if not considered as an integral tool for the processes of the organization. Companies should therefore adopt a policy where innovation plays a strategic role in the design of business models to become lean, effective and competitive entities (Moraleda, 2004). The objective of this paper is to show the importance of innovation within companies, identifying the concept, the various models that different entities might adopt in order to develop better processes of innovation, as well as indicators that represent innovation at global and national levels in order to develop strategies that lead to an increase in competitiveness. For this work the method used was a bibliographical review of relevant articles from a range of authors was conducted.
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This document summarizes an article from the Journal of Energy Technologies and Policy that examines economy growth and oil import requirements in Indonesia through 2030. It develops an econometric energy balance model to project future energy needs and simulate strategies to reduce import dependence. The model estimates oil import will be more affected by transportation fuel consumption than economic growth, and projects Indonesia will become a net energy importer by 2015. The paper suggests reducing gasoline subsidies, increasing oil production, and diversifying transportation fuels could help reduce import reliance.
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11.association between crude price and stock indicesAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a study that examines the relationship between crude oil prices and three stock market indices (BSE 500, BSE 200, BSE 100) of the Bombay Stock Exchange in India from 2001 to 2011. The study uses various econometric techniques including unit root tests, cointegration tests, vector error correction models, and Granger causality tests. The results show there is a cointegrated long-term relationship between the indices and crude prices. Granger causality tests reveal a one-way causality from the stock indices to crude prices, but not vice versa.
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This document summarizes a research paper that analyzes trends in renewable energy consumption in India from 1980 to 2011. It applies linear regression to historical consumption data to derive an equation to predict future consumption. While the equation could predict consumption in 2005, there was a large deviation from the actual value, likely due to external economic factors. Predicting consumption for 2011 using the equation again showed an increased variation from the actual value.
This document summarizes a study that examines the causal relationships between stock prices and macroeconomic variables in Turkey from March 2001 to June 2010. The study uses the Granger causality test to analyze the relationships between the ISE-100 stock index and five macroeconomic variables: foreign exchange rate, gold price, money supply, industrial production index, and consumer price index. The results suggest there is unidirectional long-run causality from stock prices to the macroeconomic variables. This implies that stock prices can serve as a leading indicator for future movements in exchange rates, gold prices, money supply, industrial production, and inflation in Turkey.
Marketing Strategy for Renewable Energy development In Indonesia Context TodayMercu Buana University
Economic development depends on the availability of energy, especially in supporting the current government’s development priorities to build the infrastructure sector in Indonesia, while the goal of development is to improve the nation’s competitiveness this research aims to investigate the opportunity to reduce fossil energy and switch to renewable energy. One of the efforts to improve long-term national energy security length is through reducing dependence on fossil energy, and the government must take swift action to use renewable energy. The methodology in this research uses internal factor evaluation analysis, external factor evaluation and SWOT matrix. Furthermore, the data used is secondary data in the period 2017–2022 coming from various official sources. The development of renewable energy in the world followed by the technology, more advanced technology used, the cost of investment and renewable energy tariffs will be cheaper, thus will be more competitive with electricity from fossil energy. Currently the installed power generation capacity in Indonesia is 57 gigawatts, of which 86% still use fossil energy and the remaining is renewable energy. Renewable energy in Indonesia becomes a very potent alternative, where the energy source depends on the geographical area and the source of energy it produces. The potential of renewable energy in Indonesia is very big, Indonesia has 40% geothermal potential in the world.
1. The document evaluates energy productivity trends in GCC countries and compares them to other advanced economies using an energy Kuznets curve analysis framework.
2. It finds the advanced economies showed strong evidence of decoupling economic growth from energy consumption as incomes rose, but GCC countries showed little evidence of this.
3. This highlights structural challenges for GCC countries in decoupling income from energy consumption given their low domestic energy prices.
Energy Status and Alternative Energy Plans of Major Energy Consumers in South...AEIJjournal2
Southeast Asia comprises an extraordinarily diverse set of countries with vast differences in the scale and
patterns of energy use and energy resources endowments. Indonesia and Thailand have been selected to be
compared because they are the two largest consumers in energy sector in the region and both countries
still similarly rely on energy imports such as oil. They have been facing challenges in energy policy
reformation distorting energy markets. The combined energy status of Indonesia and Thailand not only
aims at providing policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by
the countries up to the next two decades, but also at confidently convincing them the future energy
pathways to unlocking energy efficiency potential and investment. This work contains data and information
on pattern of energy use in the past, present, and future, some economic and political factors that may be
affecting energy demand and supply of Indonesia and Thailand. Key energy issues that need to be
considered are introduced. The potential future energy pathways are included and compared between the
countries. Investment opportunities in each country are also identified.
ENERGY STATUS AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PLANS OF MAJOR ENERGY CONSUMERS IN SOUTH...AEIJjournal2
Southeast Asia comprises an extraordinarily diverse set of countries with vast differences in the scale and patterns of energy use and energy resources endowments. Indonesia and Thailand have been selected to be compared because they are the two largest consumers in energy sector in the region and both countries still similarly rely on energy imports such as oil. They have been facing challenges in energy policy reformation distorting energy markets. The combined energy status of Indonesia and Thailand not only aims at providing policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by the countries up to the next two decades, but also at confidently convincing them the future energy pathways to unlocking energy efficiency potential and investment. This work contains data and information on pattern of energy use in the past, present, and future, some economic and political factors that may be affecting energy demand and supply of Indonesia and Thailand. Key energy issues that need to be considered are introduced. The potential future energy pathways are included and compared between the countries. Investment opportunities in each country are also identified.
ENERGY STATUS AND ALTERNATIVE ENERGY PLANS OF MAJOR ENERGY CONSUMERS IN SOUTH...aeijjournal
Southeast Asia comprises an extraordinarily diverse set of countries with vast differences in the scale and
patterns of energy use and energy resources endowments. Indonesia and Thailand have been selected to be
compared because they are the two largest consumers in energy sector in the region and both countries
still similarly rely on energy imports such as oil. They have been facing challenges in energy policy reformation distorting energy markets. The combined energy status of Indonesia and Thailand not only aims at providing policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by the countries up to the next two decades, but also at confidently convincing them the future energy pathways to unlocking energy efficiency potential and investment. This work contains data and information on pattern of energy use in the past, present, and future, some economic and political factors that may be affecting energy demand and supply of Indonesia and Thailand. Key energy issues that need to be considered are introduced. The potential future energy pathways are included and compared between the countries. Investment opportunities in each country are also identified.
The aim of this book is twofold: to present comparative estimates of a common climate change impact using the cases of climate-induced impact on agriculture in the Philippines and Indonesia; and to explore some big challenges in the region’s mitigation e orts through the case of fuel subsidy in Malaysia, and the case of deforestation-based emission in Indonesia.
A Comparative Analysis of Renewable Energy Policies and its Impact on Economi...ssuser793b4e
Renewable energy has been identified as a critical component of
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sustainable economic growth. As a result, many countries have implemented
renewable energy policies to promote the development and deployment of
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economic growth remains a subject of debate. This article provides a
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policies, analyzed the implications of the findings for policymakers and
further gave some potential solutions that will help the policymakers and
future researchers
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Overall,
Final proof electricity ijbel vol 2-201308819641377
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The practitioners and academicians in the business arena are highly concern about the enhancement of employee performance in this competitive age for achievement of business goals. Considering the issue, this study aimed to measure the influence of Human Resource Management (HRM) practices on the performance of employees. The data of this study have been collected from 392 on-the-job operational level employees using survey method who are working at different garment factories in Bangladesh. The collected data are analyzed through structural equation modeling to partial least square method. The study empirically proves that employee training and development, promotion opportunity, and job security has significant influence on the employees’ performance. Theoretically, this study proves that training and development, job security and promotion opportunity together influence on the performance of employees in the developing economy. The practitioners and policy makers of the organizations are expected to make necessary adjustments in their existing HRM practices based on the findings of this study in the context of Bangladesh for enhancing the employees’ performance level so that their whole-hearted efforts can be gained for the achievement of business goals.
Child labor is one of the issues receiving much attention from researchers and scholars around the world. Child labor still occurs in most countries around the world. Viet Nam is also one of the countries with relatively high child labor and increasing trend. This article is based on critical discourse analysis and data from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam to analyze some fundamental issues of child labor in Vietnam, thereby giving policy suggestions to the Vietnam government in minimizing the current child labor situation.
The rapid trend of changes and social issues in managing the global workforce has forced organizations to look for innovative ways of enhancing the job satisfaction of employees. Among these innovative approaches is the provision of Flexible Working Arrangements (FWAs). The purpose of this exploratory research was to identify the effects of FWAs, i.e., flextime schedule, compressed workweek, and telecommuting on job satisfaction from the perspective of the Ethiopian national employees of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) in Addis Ababa. To achieve this objective both descriptive and inferential statistics were conducted. The total population of the study was 250; out of which, 71% of responses were collected. A primary data collection method was implemented using a structured questionnaire. The analysis showed that there is significant positive effect of flextime schedule (R = .39, R2 = .264, p = .001) and compressed workweek (R = .39, R2 = .159, p = .039). This means that increase in the use of flextime schedules and compressed workweek enhances job satisfaction for employees of the ECA in Addis Ababa. The independent variables reported R = .39 and R2 = .15 which means that 15% of corresponding variations in employee job satisfaction can be explained by flexible working arrangements. Nevertheless, this study found out that there are no significant relationship of telecommuting (R = .39, R2 = .065, p = .398) on job satisfaction. Therefore, since the provision of FWAs is at the nascent stage, further studies on the effect of telecommuting on job satisfaction from Ethiopian employees context are highly recommended.
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Poor public management defined by corruption and lack of prudence in public life continues to hold Nigeria hostage and makes good governance difficult. Since the 1980s government has been using many methods including the processes of privatization and commercialization as means of re-engineering the public sector for total quality management, and to increase the share of the public sector’s contribution to the gross domestic product. The experiment never achieved the desired level of success partly due to lack of political will on the part of government to wedge a total war against corruption, and also partly because the public sector is a large scale administration that has many entry and revolving doors which government finds difficult to close. These limitations provide the incentives for widespread public corruption that is recognized as one of the greatest challenges of government in carrying out its mandate. 110 respondents participated in this study conducted through the exploratory research design. The participants provided useful data that were triangulated with data from secondary sources for the purpose of the study. To achieve the objective of the investigation, data were analyzed through statistical techniques and the result showed significant positive correlation between good governance and good management. It was recommended that appointments in the public sector should feature a combination of people from private and public sectors of the economy to enhance competence with the aim of reducing public sector corruption. Further study should examine the reasons behind rising budget deficits as a way of reducing cost of governance in Nigeria.
This document analyzes shareholding in companies in Mali based on data from the 2015 census of industrial enterprises by Mali's Ministry of Trade and Industry. The key points are:
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- Most companies in Mali are privately owned, young (less than 15 years old), and small individual/family businesses rather than corporations.
- Between 2010-2014, the majority of shareholders were in the agri-food sector, and the gender distribution of shareholders was nearly equal.
- The document discusses different concepts of shareholding structure and
This paper’s objective is to present the importance of the strategic planning in business management. Speaking of strategic planning is always speaking in general terms and how to fix paths of behavior will necessarily affect deeply and significantly in the future evolution of the company or organization that adopts it. Today we think of the organization as part of an environment and in terms of options or choices based on what you have, of its surroundings and the opportunities or pathways that can lead to achieving the objective, (Garrido, 2009). For this work the method used was a bibliographical review of relevant articles from a range of authors was conducted. The conclusions were that the be properly analyzed and adapted to the precise conditions and characteristics of the small business or, more generally, to any type of business for which the planning is intended. Strategic planning brings multiple benefits (which exceed its disadvantages) if applied in the right way, however, there are inherent risks, which can be overcome with proper monitoring and control.
The study examined the relationship between non-financial incentives and workers’ motivation in Akwa Ibom State Civil Service exploring five key variables of continuing professional development, performance feedback, employee employment, employee participation in decision-making and task autonomy. Survey research design was adopted involving the use of questionnaire to gather data from 392 respondents drawn from a population of 20465 civil servants in state using Taro Yamene Sample Size Determination Table. The sample was drawn across all ministries and departments through stratified and convenience sampling techniques. Data collected were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Hypotheses were tested at 0.05 level of significance. The five dimensions of non-financial incentives were positively correlated with workers’ motivation from the results of the analysis. Continuing Professional Development (CPD) had the highest correlation value (r = 0.33, P<0.01). Also, the five null hypotheses were rejected implying that the variables of study influence workers’ motivation in Akwa Ibom State Civil Service, Nigeria with beta coefficients and t-values of CPD (0.29;4.313); PF (0.117; 3.500); EE (0.2.141); PDM (0.182; 2.935), and TA (0.231;2.817). It was concluded that since workers’ motivation is a vital tool to organizational effectiveness and growth, employers should explore more of non-financial incentives in formulating and implementing employee benefits related policies.
This literature review is organized in five sections. Firstly, we begin with general ideas and continue with the origin of the fraudulent. Secondly, we discuss the struggle of the phenomena, insisting on the available mechanisms. Finally, we’ll discuss the link between audit and fraud.
Accounting function aims at providing accurate and sufficient accounting information to facilitate proper financial reporting and management performance. Accounting information is usually in the form of periodic or annual financial statements which are products of costing, financial and management accounting prepared for the benefit of a number of external interest groups. Accounting has its roots in the stewardship approach and as a management performance tool to guide the agent and the principal over the exact status of the going concern. Accounting function also involves financial statement analysis, interpreting the accounts by computing and evaluating ratios which relate pairs of financial information or items with one another. This analysis of ratios can be cross-sectional comparing the results of one company with another or trend. In doing so close attention is usually paid to profitability ratio to help keep pace with effective management performance. The exploratory research design was adopted for the study and result showed positive correlation between accounting function and management performance. The study was not exhaustive, therefore, further study should examine the relationship between audit failure and business failure as a matter of finding a solution to the problem. It was recommended that management should always carefully study audit reports to enhance decision making and management performance.
This study examines the effect of the trademark on consumer behavior of consumers of air conditioners in Sudan, in order to know the dimensions of the trademark that affect consumer behavior in Sudan, and provide information to companies on the dimensions of the trademark that affect the purchasing decision of the customer and contribute to customer satisfaction. The study adopted descriptive analytical method using a sample of 230 individuals who consume air conditioners in Sudan. The results showed that there is a positive significant relationship between the trademark of air conditioning and consumer behavior as well as a positive significant relationship between the trademark name of air conditioning and consumer behavior and finally there is a positive significant relationship between the trademark logo and consumer behavior.
In recent years, retired workers eligible for social security receive their emoluments from the appropriate regulatory agency and this provides more realistic evidence on the better living standard of the aged (retirees) under the scheme. Empirically, this paper examines the impact of social security on economic growth in Ghana using time series secondary (monthly) data ranging from 2000 – 2018. The author answers in two questions: 1) how significant are pensioners benefit payments dependent on economic growth and also, 2) how business environmental policy is contributing to economic performance as far as pensioners well-being are concerned. Using STATA analytical software, the findings show a positive significant relationship between social security and economic growth. The study concludes by outlining appropriate policy measures to help strengthen the current social security scheme in Ghana.
This research begins by showing the different meanings attributed to the term cluster by different currents and authors, which suggests definitions that are found around its spatial framework. Next, the factors that intervene in the competitiveness of a region and its growth are shown, for the development of these, Porter’s model of competitiveness which was taken as reference, and the contexts: geographical and economic. Therefore, the methodology was used based on a qualitative design, with descriptive and correlational scope since it will analyze differences of each cluster, with respect to the factors of dimensions, establishments, growth, economic impact and policies. To do this, the information-gathering tool was two semi-structured interviews with cluster leaders in both countries, because the approach is based on data collection methods that are not completely standardized or predetermined. And finally, the results of the comparison of the Mexican Bajío automotive cluster with the German cluster located in Baden-Württemberg are presented.
This research aims at identifying the impact of excellence in drawing up the following four marketing mix strategies (Product, Pricing, Promotion and Distribution) of the small and medium enterprises in Jordan, in terms of their marketing performance in its dimensions (Sales Growth, Profit Growth, Customer Attraction and Customer Retention).In order to reach the results of this study, A total of (187) valid questionnaire surveys were collected from companies belong to the SME Association in Jordan. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) approach was used to analyze the collected data. The empirical results indicated there is a significant relationship between the building of marketing strategies of the marketing mix elements in the Jordanian SME and their marketing performance, by (sales growth, profit growth, customer attraction, and customer retention) dimensions. Consequently, decision makers in small and medium organizations need to choose strategies based on their target market to the positive impact on the mind of the consumer, which in turn could improve modern scientific methods in SME to divide their markets into sub-market sectors.
The study investigates the impact of team building on organisational productivity. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of team building among the members of the selected case study and to assess the effect of training and retraining of team members on organisational productivity. The study also x-rayed the absence of team building in a workplace which led to low levels of turnover and productivity. the total population of the study was 750 while researcher employed Yaro Yamane sampling technique to select sample size of 261 because of the large population and hypothesis were tested using Pearson correlation. The finding revealed that if members of the team can work in synergy without considering the differences in the likes of level of educational background and others, the expected productivity will be very high. It was also observed that capabilities of team leader in carrying out the assigned task determined its output especially if the team leader understands the technical knowhow of job and he is friendly with co-team members with a lot of motivation, that this would definitely enhance employees’ efficiencies and productivities. The study recommends that team members should trust, support and respect one another individual differences in order to accomplish group common goals and tasks.
Compared with general commercial reverse logistics operators, the recovery and treatment of expired drugs and medical waste is a complex and highly technically difficult project. The qualifications required by the relevant service providers are also more stringent. For medical institutions, the selection of reverse logistics operators is always a critical issue. On the perspective of sustainability, this paper aims to investigate and explore the critical factors of selecting a medical reverse logistics service provider. Through the process of the Delphi method, the experts’ assessments were collected, and 24 factors affecting the selection of medical reverse logistics service provider were screened and summarized. Then, Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) was employed to calculate the total influence values and net influence values between factors that could be used to draw the visual causal map. Referring the causal map, “Green process operation level” and “Recycling process greening degree” are significantly higher than other factors in terms of total influence value and net influence value. Therefore, they can be regarded as crucial factors. This finding implies that medical reverse logistics providers must have the ability to improve the greening of facilities, as well as equipment, integrating existing processes to make it greener and environmentally friendly.
The major objective of any firm is to maximize the shareholders wealth. This is evidence through dividend yield and payout ratio and this encapsulate into the dividend policy of a company. The research purpose aimed at examining the influence that dividend policy has on the volatility of share prices among the listed insurance corporations in Kenya. Research design, approach and method: Data was collected from listed insurance corporations over a 10-year period with a total of 49 data points. The Pearson correlation and ordinary regression analysis were employed. The results reveal the existence of a positive link among the study variables. The correlations were found to be substantial at ninety-five percent confidence level. It is worth noting that the model summary shows forty-three-point one percent of changes in the volatility of stock price are explicated by dividend yield and payout ratio. ANOVA statistics which examines whether the analytical model as set out in the study explains variations in the dependent variable concluded that the model is analytically substantial. The outcome revealed a statistically significant positive link between stock price variations and the ratio of dividend payout. Research also established a statistically substantial negative interrelation between volatility of stock prices and dividend return. Results therefore recommend that companies should have dividend policies which are mapped to shareholders wealth maximization objective. The study suggests further studies be undertaken to determine whether there exists an analytically substantial difference between the dividend policies of various sectors in the economy.
This study is about the impact of selected macroeconomic variables on economic growth of Bangladesh. Economic growth of Bangladesh is measured in terms of annual nominal GDP growth rate. Least squared regression model has been employed considering exchange rate, export, import and inflation rate as independent variables and gross domestic product as the dependent variable in this study. The results reveal that export and import have significant positive impact on GDP growth rate. The other variables (exchange rate and inflation) are not significant, indicating that there exists no significant relationship among the variables. The findings will help the policy makers to make policies concerning the country’s economic growth to remain robust in the near future.
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Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks
1. Business, Management and Economics Research
ISSN(e): 2412-1770, ISSN(p): 2413-855X
Vol. 5, Issue. 6, pp: 77-85, 2019
URL: https://arpgweb.com/journal/journal/8
DOI: https://doi.org/10.32861/bmer.56.77.85
Academic Research Publishing
Group
*Corresponding Author
77
Original Research Open Access
Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test
Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks
Özgür Özaydın*
Department of Economics, FEAS, Ondokuz Mayıs University, Samsun, Turkey
H. Alper Güzel
Department of Economics, FEAS, Ondokuz Mayıs University, Samsun, Turkey
Abstract
The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between oil consumption and income in Turkey, using annual
data from 1961 to 2016. The stationarity properties of the series are analyzed with Lee and Strazicizh (2003), unit
root test allowing for two structural breaks, along with the conventional unit root tests namely ADF, PP and KPSS.
Due to conflicting findings of the unit root tests, ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration is used to capture the
relationship between oil consumption and income. The findings of the ARDL bounds test indicated that oil and
income are cointegrated. The causal relationship between the variables is also examined by employing Toda and
Yamamoto (1995), approach to Granger non-causality. The outcomes of the Toda and Yamamoto (1995), procedure
showed that the direction of the causality is running from real GDP to oil consumption, but not vice versa. Both
bounds test and Toda and Yamamoto (1995), test results reveal that, energy conservation policies will not harm
economic growth in Turkey.
Keywords: Oil consumption; Economic growth; Turkish economy; ARDL.
CC BY: Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0
1. Introduction
Two major oil crises stimulated by the dramatic increases in oil prices adversely affected the world economy in
1970’s. Since then, the relationship between energy use and economic growth has been a central issue for
researchers. As uncovering the relationship between energy use and economic growth may have important policy
implications regarding a country’s energy policy, many studies have been devoted to shed more light on the energy
use-income relationship. To this extend, four main types of hypotheses which reflects the possible relationships
between energy use and economic growth are tested. Growth hypothesis suggests a unidirectional relationship
running from energy use to economic growth, while conservation hypothesis also proposes a unidirectional
relationship but this time running from economic growth to energy use. According to the feedback hypothesis both
energy use and economic growth affects each other, implying that there exists bi-directional relationship between the
variables. Finally, neutrality hypothesis claims that economic growth does not lead to any significant changes in
energy use and vice versa.
Turkey is an ―energy corridor‖ between the energy exporter countries of the Middle East and the energy
importer countries of Europe due to its geographical location. As Turkey is a fast industrializing country, economic
activities in Turkey depends heavily on energy inputs. Thus, any surges in energy consumption may lead to
fluctuations in economic activity. Furthermore, changes in economic growth rates may also cause changes in
Turkey’s energy necessity. Therefore, uncovering the existence and the direction of the relationship between energy
use and economic growth for Turkey may bring important policy implications.
Since, oil has the highest share in Turkey’s energy use and Turkey is also heavily dependent on imports to meet
its oil demand, oil consumption is used as a proxy for energy use in this study. This paper aims to address the
question whether there exists a relationship between oil use and economic growth in Turkey for the period 1960-
2016. To uncover the oil use-economic growth relationship for Turkey, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
modeling approach to co-integration developed by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997), and Toda and Yamamoto (1995),
causality test are employed.
The main contribution of this paper to the existing literature is taking into account the effects of structural
breaks and using the structural break dates as explanatory variables in the estimated ARDL models by using the most
recent data for the case of Turkey.
The paper proceeds as follows. A brief review of the existing literature is presented in section 2. In section 3,
the description of the data and methodology are introduced. In section 3 the empirical results obtained from the
model(s) are reported. Finally, by discussing the outcomes, policy suggestions regarding Turkey’s energy policy are
presented in section 5.
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2. Literature Review
In their pioneering work (Kraft and Kraft, 1978) find unidirectional causality running from GNP to energy use
in the US for the period 1947-1974. However, Akarca and Long (1980), and Yu and Hwang (1984), suggest that
energy use and GNP to be neutral for the US, when the period covered is changed. Moreover, Yu and Choi (1985),
provide support for neutrality hypothesis not only for the US but also for the UK and Poland. On the other hand, Yu
and Choi (1985), find unidirectional causality running from energy use to income for Philippines, and income to
energy use for South Korea.
Following these seminal works, many researchers have investigated the energy use-income relationship for
different countries, over different periods and by employing different techniques. However, the results are still
contradictory. Some researchers report unidirectional causality running from income to energy use, such as,
Abosedra and Baghestani (1989), for the US, Masih and Masih (1996), for Indonesia, Soytas and Sari (2003), for
Italy and Korea, Lee (2006), for France, Italy and Japan, Zamani (2007), for Iran, Ghosh (2009), for India, Yazdan
and Hossein (2012), for Iran, Alam and Paramati (2015), for 18 developing countries, Saboori et al. (2017), for
South Korea.
On the other hand, some researchers find reverse unidirectional causality, running from energy to income, such
as; Masih and Masih (1996), for India, Stern (2000), for the US, Soytas and Sari (2003), for France, Japan and West
Germany, Oh and Lee (2004), for Korea, Lee (2005), for 18 developing countries, Soytas and Sari (2006), for France
and the US, and Yuan et al. (2007), for China, Saboori et al. (2017), for China and Japan.
Bidirectional relationship also found in some studies, such as; Erol and Yu (1987), for Japan, Masih and Masih
(1996), for Pakistan, (Glasure and Lee, 1997) for South Korea and Singapore, and Masih and Masih (1997), for
Korea and Taiwan, Hondroyiannis et al. (2002), for Greece, Ghali and El-Sakka (2004), for Canada, Soytas and Sari
(2006), for Canada, Italy, Japan and UK, Yuan et al. (2008), for China, Bhusal (2010), for Nepal, Al-Mulali (2011),
for MENA countries, Behmiri and Manso (2013), for Sub-Saharan Africa, Park and Yoo (2014), for Malaysia, Wang
et al. (2016), for China and Pinzón (2018), for Ecuador.
Despite the fact that most of the empirical studies found evidence in favor of the relationship between income
and energy use, some researchers provide evidence of energy use and income to be neutral, such as, Cheng (1995),
for the US, Masih and Masih (1996), for Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines Cheng and Lai (1997), for Taiwan,
Glasure (2002), for Korea, Soytas and Sari (2003), for the US, the UK, Canada, Indonesia and Poland and Lee
(2006), for the UK, Germany and Sweden.
The controversy about the existence and the direction of the relationship between energy use also holds for the
studies concerning Turkey. Soytas et al. (2001), Soytas and Sari (2003), Altinay and Karagol (2005), Mucuk and
Uysal (2009), Karagöl et al. (2011), Ceylan and Başer (2014), and Keskin (2017), provide support for unidirectional
causality running from energy to income, while the findings of Lise and Van Montfort (2007), Ozata (2010),
Gokmenoglu and Taspinar (2016), and Aydin (2018), show unidirectional causality running from economic growth
to energy consumption. The validity of the feedback hypothesis is confirmed by the findings of Aktas and Yilmaz
(2008), Saatci and Dumrul (2012), and Ozturk and Acaravci (2013). In contrast to these findings, Altinay and
Karagol (2004), Soytas and Sari (2009), Ozturk and Acaravci (2010), and Ucak and Usupbeyli (2015), suggest that
energy use and income to be neutral for the case of Turkey.
3. Data, Model and Methodology
3.1. Data
Annual data for Turkey over the period 1960–2016 is used to investigate the dynamic relations between oil
consumption and income. Real GDP and total primary energy supply (TPES) from oil were used as proxies for
income and oil consumption, respectively. Real GDP is measured in US dollars (base year=2010) and oil use
measured in thousand tonnes of oil equivalent (toe). The data for the Real GDP was obtained from World
Development Indicators database of the World Bank and oil information is taken from the World Energy Statistics
and Balances of the International Energy Agency which is available at the OECD database.
3.2. Model
In order to test whether there exists a relationship between oil consumption and income the following models
are used.
(1)
(2)
where denotes time, refers to oil consumption and represents income.
The models represented with Equation 1 and Equation 2 are transformed into the following log-log models in
order to capture the long run elasticities of the variables.
(3)
(4)
where refers to time, is the log of oil consumption, is the log of income, ’s and ’s are OLS
estimators and ’s are the white noise terms.
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4. Methodology
The dynamic relations between oil consumption and income are investigated by using linear time series
techniques. One of the most important problems while working with the time series data is the possibility of spurious
regression. In order to overcome the spurious regression problem, the stationarity properties of the series in question
are analyzed by using the conventional stationarity tests, which do not take into account the structural breaks,
namely Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF), Phillips-Perron (PP) and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS).
Moreover, recently developed Lee and Strazicizh (2003), (LS) unit root test which allows for two structural breaks is
also employed in this study.
VAR models and residual or maximum likelihood based cointegration tests like Engel and Granger (1988),
Johansen (1988), Johansen and Juselius (1990), and Gregory and Hansen (1996a), Gregory and Hansen (1996b), are
widely used methods by the researchers to capture the inter-relations between the variables in question. Since these
methods deal only with the variables integrated of the same order, using these methods may cause biased results
when the series have different stationarity properties. In such cases, ARDL bounds test approach to cointegration,
which is a relatively recent technique developed by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997), Pesaran and Smith (1998), Pesaran
and Shin (1999), Pesaran et al. (2001), and Pesaran and Pesaran (2010), is one of the best suitable methods.
As shown by Pesaran et al. (2001), the first advantage of the ARDL procedure is that, it can be used whether
the series are I (0) or I (1) or mutually cointegrated. Second, it also allows for estimating both short-run and long run
properties of the series simultaneously. Third, as emphasized by Narayan (2005), the estimated coefficients are
consistent and unbiased even in small sample sizes. Since all variables are assumed to be endogenous; as argued by
Laurenceson and Chai (2003), using bounds test approach avoids the drawback of inability to test hypothesis
associated with the estimated parameters caused by the endogeneity problem. Due to its numerous advantages over
conventional cointegration techniques, the ARDL approach has become one of the most commonly used tools for
researchers in recent years.
First step of the ARDL bounds test approach is to construct the Unrestricted Error Correction (UECM) forms of
the models in question both with and without the trend variable. In this regard, the UECM representations of the
models in Equation 3 and Equation 4 are presented with the Equation 5 and Equation 7 respectively. Additionally,
Equation 6 and Equation 8 represents the trend included UECM forms of the models represented with Equation 3
and Equation 4 respectively. All the UECM forms includes the dummy variables for the structural break years which
gathered from the findings of the Crash model of LS unit root test.
∑ ∑ (1)
∑ ∑ (2)
∑ ∑ (3)
∑ ∑ (4)
where is the first lag operator, ’s and ’s denote appropriate lag lengths, ’s represent the dummy
variables for the structural break years and is the trend variable.
Having constructed the UECM forms, the models with appropriate lag lengths which are determined by using
Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) or Schwarz Information Criterion (SIC) or Hannan-Quinn Information Criterion
(HQ) or Adjusted ( ̅ criterion should be estimated. To check whether the selected model is best fitting, a series
of diagnostics tests, namely, functional form test, serial correlation test, normality test and heteroscedasticity test
should be employed. Moreover; stability tests, namely, cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM) and the
cumulative sum squares of recursive residuals (CUSUMSQ) should be performed to test the parameter stability of
the model over time.
The co-integration relationship among the variables should be investigated by the means of bounds test
approach. In the bounds test procedure, the null hypothesis is , which suggests no cointegrating
relation among the variables. This hypothesis needs to be tested against the alternative hypothesis,
, for each UECM by using F and t tests. If the computed F and t statistics are less than the critical values of the
lower bound, null hypothesis of no cointegration cannot be rejected. However, if the computed F and t statistics
exceed the upper bound critical values, the null hypothesis of no cointegration should be rejected, concluding that
the variables are cointegrated. On the other hand, if the computed F and t statistics fall within lower and upper
critical values, the result is inconclusive implying that the ARDL technique is not applicable for investigating the
cointegration relation between the variables.
Having detected the cointegration relationship between variables, the next step of the ARDL approach is to
derive the long run coefficients from the UECM equations by using normalization procedure in which coefficients of
the one period lagged terms of each independent variable is divided by the coefficient of the one period lagged term
of the dependent variable. In the third step of the ARDL procedure, the restricted Error Correction Models (ECM)
should be specified in order to capture the short run coefficients.
If the variables are found to be cointegrated, then the long run estimates of the ARDL model can be extracted
from the UECM equations by normalizing coefficients over coefficients for each model. The short run
parameters can also be obtained from the restricted Error Correction Models. However, the ARDL model still needs
to be tested with diagnostics checks for normality, serial correlation heteroscedasticity and functional form.
Moreover, to avoid the problem of the instability of the parameters cumulative sum of recursive residuals (CUSUM)
test and the cumulative sum squares of recursive residuals (CUSUMSQ) test should be performed.
As proposed byEngle and Granger (1987), the existence of cointegration relationship implies that Granger
(1969), causality must exist in at least one direction between the variables. Therefore, the possible short run causal
4. Business, Management and Economics Research
80
relations between the variables should also be investigated by using Granger non-causality approach. However, as
criticized by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), the conventional Granger non-causality test results would be biased, if the
variables are integrated of different order. In such cases, Toda-Yamamoto approach to Granger non-causality test
should be used. One of the main advantages of Toda-Yamamoto test is that, the inclusion of the non-stationary
variables at their levels allows to avoid information loss which occurs in conventional Granger non-causality test.
In the first step of the Toda-Yamamoto approach, the stationarity order of the series which has the highest
degree of integration should be determined as the maximum order of integration ( . Following the first step,
Unrestricted VAR model with the levels of the variables should be constructed and maximum appropriate lag length
of the unrestricted VAR model needs to be determined with the help of the most commonly used criteria like
AIC, SIC, HQ.
In the third step, the augmented VAR model which includes additional lags of each variable into each
equation with the appropriate lag length of should be specified. The adopted equations of the augmented
VAR model which is proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995), are represented by Equation 9 and Equation 10.
∑ ∑ (5)
∑ ∑ (6)
After having established the augmented VAR model, the causal relations between the series should be analyzed
by testing the null hypothesis, for Equation 9 and for Equation 10, implying the absence of
Granger causality, against the alternative hypothesis with the help of modified Wald statistics for each variable in the
VAR system. It is essential to be sure of that the VAR is well-specified so that the VAR model is not suffering from
problems such as serial correlation or heteroscedasticity.
5. Empirical Findings
5.1. Unit Root Tests
The results of the ADF unit root test which are presented in Table 1, revealed that, oil is level stationary I (0)
variable, while the income is integrated of first order I (1), according to both models with constant and constant and
trend. The PP test results, both for the models with constant and constant and trend, verified the findings of the ADF
unit root test. However, the results of the KPSS test which includes only constant suggested that both series are
stationary in their first differences I(1). Moreover, if the trend variable is included, KPSS stationarity test results
showed that income is stationary in its level form while oil is integrated of first order I(1).
Table-1. Findings of the Unit Root Tests with No Structural Breaks
Test Type ADF a
PP b
KPSS b
Variable C C+T C C+T C C+T
lo -6.80* (0) -4.85* (0) -7.31* (2) -5.03* (1) 0.81 (6) 0.23 (5)
ly -0.40 (0) -3.31 (3) -0.40 (2) -2.72 (0) 0.92 (6) 0.12** (5)
Δlo - - - - 0.64** (5) 0.20** (4)
Δly -4.86* (0) -3.74** (3) -4.98* (6) -4.65* (6) 0.06* (2) -
Critical
Values
%1 %5 %1 %5 %1 %5 %1 %5 %1 %5 %1 %5
-3.55 -2.91 -4.13 -3.49 -3.55 -2.91 -4.13 -3.49 0.46 0.73 0.14 0.21
a
Maximum lag length was chosen as 11 and the optimal lag lengths which are presented in parenthesis are determined by
using AIC.
b
Bartlett kernel were used as spectral estimation method and the bandwidth was selected by using the Newey-West method
both for the PP and KPSS tests.
C denotes intercept and C+T denotes intercept and trend.
* and ** denotes stationarity at 1% and 5% level respectively.
Although ADF, PP and KPSS stationarity tests are very popular among the researchers, in the case of structural
break(s) the related tests suffer from spurious rejection. In order to avoid the spurious rejection problem, Lee and
Strazicizh (2003), test which analyses the stationarity properties of the series by including two structural breaks was
also used. Crash and Break model results of the LS unit root test with two structural breaks which presented in Table
2 showed that both oil and GDP are stationary variables at their first differences I (1).
Table-2. Results of the Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks
Test Type LS with Two Breaks a
Variable Crash Break
lo -1.65 [1982,1992] -4.00 [1977,1996]
ly -3.01 [1993,2010] -5.91 [1970,1999]
Δlo -5.44* [1972,1994] -7.07* [1975,1992]
Δly -6.32* [1970,1973] -6.96* [1970,1975]
Critical
Values
%1 %5 %1 %5
-4.07 -3.56 -6.69 -6.15
a
Maximum lag length was chosen as 8.
* and ** denotes stationarity at 1% and 5% level respectively.
The years in brackets are structural break years.
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In summary, the findings of the unit root test results are conflicting. However, all unit root test results confirmed
that none of the variables are stationary at their second differences I(2). Therefore, to investigate the dynamic
relations between oil and income, ARDL bounds test approach is used.
5.2. ARDL Bounds Test Results
The dynamic relations between the oil consumption and economic growth are examined by using the ARDL
models both with and without trend variable. The findings of the ARDL bounds test results are presented in Table 3.
Table-3. Bounds Test Results
without trend with trend
Model a
ARDL (1,1) ARDL (1,1) ARDL (1,2) ARDL (2,1)
F-statistics F(lo|ly)=27.85* F(ly|lo)=1.54 F(lo|ly)=14.26* F(ly|lo)=6.18**
Critical
F Values
1% 5% 1% 5%
I(0) I(1) I (0) I(1) I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1)
6.84 7.84 4.94 5.73 6.56 7.30 8.74 9.63
t-statistics t(lo|ly)=-4.69* t(ly|lo)=-0.53 t(lo|ly)=-5.23* t(ly|l0)=-3.48
Critical
t Values
1% 5% 1% 5%
I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1) I(0) I(1)
-3.43 -3.82 -2.86 -3.22 -3.96 -4.26 -3.41 -3.69
a
Appropriate lag length is chosen by using AIC.
* and ** denotes statistical significance at 1% and 5% level respectively.
Although the F statistics of ARDL (2,1) model for the relation ly|lo with trend is greater than the critical F
value, the t-statistics of the same model falls within lower and upper bound critical values. Therefore, this model is
eliminated to avoid inconsistent and biased results. Bounds test results presented in Table 3 revealed that the
calculated statistics both for and tests exceed the upper bound critical value for ARDL (1,1) model for the
relation lo|ly, without trend variable. However, this model was unable to pass diagnostic and stability checks. Thus,
ARDL (1,1) model for the relation lo|ly is not used for further estimations as well.
ARDL (1,2) model, including the trend variable, in which both F and t statistics exceeding the upper bound
critical values, has also passed both diagnostic and stability tests for the relation lo|ly. Therefore, it is found that
there is a cointegration relation between the variables oil and GDP in the long run, where GDP is found to be the
forcing variable for oil consumption.
5.3. Long Run Estimates of the ARDL Model
The long run parameter estimation results for ARDL (1,2) model with trend variable are presented in Table 4.
The long-run results reveal that Real GDP is the key determinant for oil consumption and that the long run impact of
Real GDP on oil consumption is positive. More importantly, the coefficient of the income is elastic and suggests that
a 1% change in real income would lead to a 3.05% change in oil consumption in the same direction.
Table-4. Long Run Coefficients
Variable Coefficient Standard Error t-statistics P-value
lny 3.05 0.99 3.05 0.00*
* and ** denotes statistical significance at 1% and 5% level respectively.
5.4. Short Run Estimates and Diagnostic Test Results
The results of the ECM form used for obtaining the short-run dynamics of the ARDL (2,1) model is provided in
Table 5. The findings of the ECM model, suggested that all the variables with the exception of dummy variables are
statistically significant at %5 level.
Table-5. Error Correction Representation
Variable Coefficient t-statistics P-value
intercept -10.56 -5.34 0.00*
trend -0.01 -6.26 0.00*
∆y 0.83 4.35 0.00*
∆y(-1) -0.48 -2.39 0.02**
d1982 0.03 0.56 0.57
d1992 0.00 0.00 0.99
ect(-1) -0.15 -5.39 0.00*
Important Statistics
̅ 0.63 F-statistics 13.62
RSS 0.14 DW statistics 2.04
Diagnostic Tests
3.13 (0.20) 3.34 (0.50)
2.79 (0.59) 0.01 (0.88)
* and ** denotes statistical significance at 1% and 5% level respectively.
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The coefficients of the variables and found to be positive and negative, respectively, which suggest
that a one unit change in the current year’s growth rate will cause a change in the oil consumption growth rate by
0.83 points in the same direction, while a change in the previous year’s growth rate will cause a 0.48 points change
in the current years oil consumption growth rate in the opposite direction.
The coefficient of the one period lagged error correction term (-0.15) is negative as expected and also
statistically significant, which suggests that 15% of the deviations from the long-run equilibrium level of oil
consumption will be corrected in the next period.
The ARDL (2,1) model is checked for normality with Jarque-Bera ( ) test, for serial correlation with Breusch-
Godfrey LM ( ) test, for heteroskedasticity with ARCH ( ) test and for model misspecification with Ramsey
RESET test. According to the results in Table 5 the model successfully passed all diagnostic tests. The
parameter stability of the model is also checked both with CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests. The results of the
CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests are presented in Figure.1.
Figure 1. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ Test Results
As can be seen from Figure 1 the estimated parameters of the ARDL (2,1) model are stable according to both
CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests.
5.5. Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test
The causal relationship between the variables oil and real GDP is investigated by using Toda-Yamamoto
procedure. The results of the Toda-Yamamoto test based upon the Equation 9 and Equation 10 are presented in
Table 6.
Table-6. Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test Results
Null Hypothesis P-value Decision
3.58 0.05** Rejected
0.35 0.54 Not Rejected
Diagnostic Tests
3.12 (0.20) 14.74 (0.67)
a
The maximum lag length of the VAR Model is which suggested by AIC and
maximum order of integration is suggested by LS unit test. Thus, the
appropriate lag length of the VAR model is determined as ( .
b
There is no serial correlation or heteroskedasticity problem in the model.
* and ** denotes statistical significance at 1% and 5% level respectively.
According to the Toda-Yamamoto test results, the null hypothesis for equation 7 which suggests does not
cause is rejected. However, the null hypothesis for the equation 8 which suggests does not cause cannot
be rejected. Thus, the findings of the Toda and Yamamoto (1995), test revealed that there is a unidirectional
causality running from real GDP to oil consumption, but not vice versa.
6. Conclusion
In this study, the dynamic relationship between oil consumption and income for the case of Turkey is
investigated by using annual data over the period 1960-2016. Since the unit root test results were conflicting, ARDL
approach to cointegration is employed. Bounds test results confirmed that there exists a cointegrating relation
between oil consumption and economic growth, where economic growth found to be the long run forcing variable
for oil consumption. The findings of the long run parameters of the model revealed that a 1% increase in Real GDP
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would lead to a 3.05% increase in oil consumption. The parameter estimates of the error correction model showed
that, 15% of the disequilibrium adjust back to the long run equilibrium within a year.
Apart from cointegration test, to uncover the direction of causality, Toda-Yamamoto version of Granger non-
causality test is also employed. The results of the Toda-Yamamoto test showed that there exists a unidirectional
causality running from economic growth to oil consumption which is consistent with the bounds test findings.
Both bounds test and Toda-Yamamoto test results suggested evidence in favor of the validity of conservation
hypothesis for the case of Turkey over the period 1960-2016, which implies energy conservation policies will not
harm economic growth in Turkey. Therefore, policy makers may take more brave steps to reduce the carbon
footprint of Turkey without concerning about economic growth.
.
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