Presented at the Pre-Forum BFP meeting, 7-8 November, 2008 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

1. Nile Basin Focal Project
Development of Work plans
WP5: Interventions Analysis
Seleshi Bekele Awulachew
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

2. Content
1. Objectives
2. Key Issues and Research Questions
3. Expected Outputs
4. Methodology
5. Preliminary Results
6. Expected Outcomes
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

3. 1. Objectives
• To understand interventions that can have greater
impacts in the Nile Basin
• Specific objectives are to:
– inventory and characterize various existing interventions in
relation to production systems and space
– document success and failures of interventions and map
intervention types
– undertake detail performance analysis of existing
interventions and their impacts through quantitative and
qualitative analysis and recommend best bet interventions
and implementation mechanisms
– undertake tradeoff analysis, ranking and modeling to select
and evaluate high impact interventions and implementation
strategy
– Develop problem tree & impact pathways through
interventions
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

4. 2. Key Issues: The Basin is highly variable,
the river is very important, various interventions
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

5. 2. Key Research Questions
• What are the existing water related interventions in the
basin under various production systems?
• Which interventions have succeeded and which ones
failed?
• What are the technical, economic, institutional setups
for successful or failed interventions under various
systems?
• Which future interventions are required to bring high
impact on poverty, water availability, access and
productivity for various target groups?
Note: All questions may not be answered but will lead to
future work
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

6. 3. Expected Outputs
1: Literature Review & Assembly of Knowledge Report
i) Inventory & on desk characterization
ii) Ongoing and planned interventions by respective countries and regional organs (Master plans, SVP, SAPs)
iii) Intervention types under various production systems, sub-basins (past/existing, under implementation, future)
iv) Success and failures stories and causes
v) Intervention scales and up-scaling possibilities
vi) Short list of interventions through stakeholders consultation
vii) Report of literature review, long and short list of interventions
2: Detailed Assessments Report
i. Map of intervention types by production & hydronomic zones - GIS based map
ii. Design tools for evaluation of performance at selected sites & systems: PRA, questionnaires, interviews
iii. Evaluate performances of interventions
iv. Intermediate report on performance of interventions- -RR
v. Adopted model/s for evaluating quantitative and qualitative impacts of interventions- model setup
vi. Identify potential adoption sites using GIS and product of other WPs
vii. Special study report on recommendations of suits of interventions, necessary mechanisms and implications – RR and article/s
3: Assessment of High Potential Interventions Report
i. Generate high impact scenarios
ii. Select/develop model for scenario analysis
iii. Evaluate high potential interventions and their impacts (water availability, SE and environmental) through tradeoffs analysis (large versus
small, HP vs agriculture, single vs multi-purpose, ), response to new market opportunities (virtual water, power trade, ..) through MCA,
ranking and modeling eg Watersim
iv. Validate the high potential interventions through stakeholders consultation
v. Report on high potential interventions
4: Problem Tree and Impact Pathway Report (
monitoring and analyzing the impact of the project)
Used as a means of thinking, implementing,
– Implementing group discuss and identify problem tree (cause-effect) and impact pathways
– Problem tree and impact pathway is developed for the project
– The impact pathway is validated by stakeholders
– The impact pathway document used by the project
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

7. 4. Methodology: Inter-linkages of WPs
WP1: Poverty WP2: Hydrology WP4: Institutions
Analysis
Water Accounting
Spatially
disaggregated
water balance
Economic
Farming Spatial WP3: Water evaluations
systems dissagreg Productivity
ation
Water use
systems
Factors of WP5: Intervention
productivity: land, Potential Analysis
water, intervention
WP6: Knowledge CPWF
Supported by: Management
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

8. 4. Methodology: Analysis
• Identify and map existing • develop comprehensive list of interventions
intervention • map interventions
• superimpose maps
• short list of interventions
• Design tools, evaluate • indices, PRA, questioners, data collections
performances, identify
best interventions, • evaluate performance
develop scenarios, and • validate scenarios-consultations
evaluate • tools for scenario analysis
• Define feasible • impact on water budget, productivity, socio-
options; evaluate economics and institutions;
potential impacts
• tradeoff results and impacts
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

9. 5. Preliminary Results: Scales of Interventions
• Hydronomic Zones
• 5 specific detail case study sites
– Ethiopian Highlands
– Victoria Nile
– The Sudd
– Gezirra
– Delta
• One integrated basin wide analysis
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

10. The Detail Case Study Sites
Y
#
SU DA
Monga lla
Y
#
[
% N im ule
Laropi
As
wa
P anyango #
Y
Y
#
Pakw ac h
# P araa A lb
Y Y K am d ini
e rt #
M u rc hision F a lls N il
e
Y
# M a sindi Port
B utiaba Y
#
D R C Bu nia L. A lbert Y
#
[
% B ugond o
L. Ky og a
Kafu
Na ma sag ali
[
%
Vic
Bw er am ule
Y
#
tor
ili ki M bu lam u ti #
Y
S em
ia
Fo rt P o rta l
Nil
[
% M uz izi
e
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o
Y
# Y
#
Si
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[
% Y ala
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Kasen yi # L. Ge or ge
Y Ent eb be %
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Kis um u So nd
u
Ish ang o Y
# Y
# # K azing a C han nel
Y [
%
K atw e
L. Ed ward
Ka
ge L. V ictor ia
ra
Bu ko ba
[
%
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% M ara
M us om a
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%
Nyaborongo
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[
% a
M w anza
u
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yu
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D isc harge S tation s
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
Y
#
[
% To w n s

11. Aggregated Basin
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

12. 5. Preliminary Results: Categorization of
Interventions
• Product/production system based
– Crop Based: Field Crops, Horticulture, Forestry/ agro-Forestry
– Animal based: Livestock, Fisheries/Aquaculture
• Farming system based
– Rain fed, irrigation, mixed crop-livestock, etc
• Physical based
– Infrastructural interventions
– Water and land based interventions: eg watershed management
• Socio-economic based
– Agricultural based – Ag trade, virtual water
– Hydropower-interconnection
– Industrial
• Institutional and policy based
– Institutional innovations; basin, sub-basin institutions
– Benefit/water-sharing
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

13. Example: Production System and Interventions
• Hydronomic profiles
• Production system
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

14. Infrastructural Interventions
• Control and
Management of
Natural Lakes (2)
• Large
Dams/Reservoirs
and Diversions
(15)
• Small dams
• Ground Water
Storage and
Recharge
• Non-Conventional
Water Sources
Technologies
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

15. River Schematization, Flow and Interventions
Khartoum
Hawata
1,102 Rahad
2,797 Dinder
Giwasi
Lake Tana
Sennar
Bosheilo
SUDAN 3,809
Roseires 3,920
Beles Outlet Lake Tana
Border
4,345
Welaka
North Gojam 2,072
Wonbera South Gojam Jemma
ETHIOPIA 4,798
3,874 5,012 4,389
Kessie
Muger
2,440
6,246
Anger
2,355 1,719 2,187
Dabus Flow gauging station
5,673
Reservoir
Guder
Mean annual
Didessa 4,345
Finchaa discharge (Mm3)
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

16. Future Interventions
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

17. Capacity Building
• Tewdros : Water Resources Allocation of the Nile River Basin: A
cooperative Game Theoretic Approach
– Integrated economic-hydrologic-institutional modeling at the River Basin
Scale
• George: Developing Optimal Economic Incentives for Managing
Transboundary Water Externalities in the Blue Nile River Basin
– Application of economic instruments to review the past and present
legal documents on the Blue Nile and treaties governing the entire Nile
River Basin
– Modeling optimal allocation of water for maximizing use benefits among
the countries established
• Binyam: Equitable Distribution of Benefits in Transboundary Waters
• 6 M.Sc. students
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa

18. 6. Expected Outcomes
Output 1 Interventions from Basin and
International experience are compiled, made
available and referred/used
Output 2 Highly performing interventions are
promoted
Output 3 Development partners integrate high
impact interventions scenarios in their
investments
Output 4 Used as a means to design,
implement, monitor and create impact through
the project
Supported by: CPWF
07/11/2008, Addis Ababa