Presentation based on Masters Research Thesis. Presentation done in the 5th Nile Basin Development Forum in Kigali, Rwanda

1. MODEL FOR CARRYING OUT STRATEGIC
ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT FOR RIVER
ENGINEERING DEVELOPMENT: CASE STUDY OF
NILE BASIN
Ogaro Lugard Kaunda; Nicodemus Nyandiko; Vincent Omwenga; Zablon N.I. Oonge
September 15, 2017
Paper presented at the 5th Nile Basin Development Forum
Kigali, Rwanda on 23-25 October 2017

2. Background
The Nile Basin countries have united in common pursuit of the
long-term development and management of Nile waters.
Shared Vision - aim to achieve sustainable socio-economic
development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit
from, the common NB water resources.
Multi-sectoral nature and multi-interest utilization of water
resources for water supply and sanitation, agriculture, industry,
urban development, hydropower generation, inland fisheries,
transportation, recreation, low and flat lands management and
other activities.
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3. Background
 RE is defined as the process of planned human intervention in the
course, characteristics or flow of a river with the intention of producing
some defined benefit such as, irrigation, hydroelectric power
generation or water supply (Brooker, 1985).
 People have intervened in the natural course and behaviour of rivers
since before recorded history; to manage the water resources, to
protect against flooding or to make passage along or across rivers
easier (Brooker, 1985).
 From the late 20th century, river engineering has had environmental
concerns broader than immediate human benefit and some river
engineering projects have been concerned exclusively with the
restoration or protection of natural characteristics and habitats
(Brooker, 1985).
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4. The Problem Statement
 NBI lacks a strategic frameworks that integrates the three pillars of sustainable
development (i.e.) S, E & N) into at higher levels of decision making, i.e., policy, plan &
programme (PPP).
 Though EIA has been widely used project level, it has a limited scope and cannot be
applied at PPP levels.
 The BAU scenario will mean that development continues to suffer since there is less
integration of S, E & N issues at strategic planning and decision making levels.
 This research argues that the achievement of SD requires, inter alia, a fair balance of S,
E & N factors at PPPs providing for what could usefully be referred in this research as
achieving a ‘Sustainability Equilibrium.’
 Main objective: To develop a model for carrying out SEA for River Engineering related PPPs for
the NBCs. The specific objectives were:
1. To develop a model for undertaking SEA in RE Development at PPP levels in the NBCs;
2. To analyse, through case studies, how NBCs have applied SEA in various proposals;
3. To apply the model to test for Sustainability Equilibrium of the selected case studies of SEA
undertaken in the NB.
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5. Methodology: Defining Process Levels
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Source Source of the Process Level Process Level(s)
identified
Therivel, et al. (1992)
in Goodland et al.
(1996)
Definition of SEA: As the formalized, systematic and comprehensive process of evaluating
(EVALUATION) the environmental impacts of a policy, plan or programme and its
alternatives (INDICATORS), the preparation of a written report on the findings, and the use
of the findings in publicly-accountable decision-making (PARTICIPATION).
Evaluation
Participation
Indicators
World Bank, (2002). Definition of SEA: As a process of integrating (INTEGRATION) the environmental and
social concerns in the process of developing policies, plans or programmes.
Integration
African Development
Bank
From the AfDB: The impact assessment should envisage, if necessary, mitigating
(MITIGATION) measures and should take into consideration the priorities and concerns of
the local population, by working in close consultation with NGOs and local institutions
(STAKEHOLDERS) at all stages of the project cycle.
Mitigation
Stakeholders
EU SEA process In the EU’s impact-centred SEA, seven stages are identified: SCREENING, SCOPING,
baseline, assessment, reporting, informing decision making (SEA INFLUENCE) and
MONITORING. These SEAs are best fit to integrate environmental considerations in plans
and programmes where environmental effects and opportunities can be reasonably identified
and predicted.
Screening
Scoping
Monitoring
SEA influence

6. Methodology: Definition of Process Levels
Ref: Process Level The Question it should answer
1 Screening Does the screening criterion answer questions on why an SEA is necessary on the basis social, economic and
environmental effects of the PPP?
2 Scoping Shall the SEA set out to investigate and consider social economic and environmental effects of the proposed PPP?
3 Indicators Does the SEA exercise start with setting specific measurable (whether qualitative or quantitative) social, economic
and environmental indicators of the proposed PPP?
4 Stakeholders During stakeholder identification and analysis, does the SEA exercise identify stakeholders (primary, secondary or
tertiary) with social, economic and environmental interests or concerns of the proposed PPP?
5 Evaluation During analysis of an SEA findings (from baseline data or stakeholder concerns), does the SEA use qualitative or
quantitative methods that can analyse social, economic and environmental factors of the proposed PPP?
6 Integration How does an SEA integrate social, economic and environmental aspects? Through iterations, it should provide
sufficient information on the actual impacts of implementing a strategic decision to judge whether this decision
should be amended?
7 Mitigation After analysis of findings (cumulative negative or positive impacts), how does an SEA enhance or develop
mitigation measures in line with social, economic and environmental concerns of the proposed PPP?
8 Monitoring After development of indicators and mitigation plans, how does the SEA identify how to monitor the
implementation of the PPP in line with social, economic and environmental factors?
9 Independent Review After an SEA exercise, was there an independent review done by an outside party who had social, economic and
environmental expertise on the proposed PPP?
10 SEA Influence How did an SEA influence on the PPP? (The reason for undertaking an SEA is because there are concerns identified
in the screening, scoping and stakeholder stages). How does the SEA exercise influence the social, economic and
environment factors in the PPP?
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Table 8: Definition of Process Levels and Details Required

7. Methodology: Two approaches
Otto Theory on sustainable Development: -
both economy and society are constrained
by environmental limits, (Ott, 2003).
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Table 8: Definition of Process Levels and Details Required
Representation of sustainable
development by Forestry Commission of
Great Britain:- a balanced integration of
the three factors

8. Methodology
Structural Equations – Set Theory Venn Diagram – Sustainability
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Economic
Bearabl
e
Viable
Social
Environment
Sustainability
Equita
ble
𝑆 =
1, 𝑖𝑓 𝑖𝑡 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑡𝑡𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑑𝑒, 𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑟 𝑏𝑒ℎ𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
𝐸 =
1, 𝑖𝑓 𝑖𝑡 𝑎𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
𝑁 =
1, 𝑖𝑓 𝑖𝑡 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛𝑜𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔
0, 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
∪= 𝑆, 𝐸, 𝑁
Evaluation
Participation
Indicators
Integration
Mitigation
Stakeholders
Screening
Scoping
Monitoring
SEA Influence

9. Summary of Findings
1. A model for undertaking SEA for RE related PPPs was
developed based on S, E &N factors against 10 PLs;
2. The SEA model is applicable at both at PPP formulation
level as an assessment tool or as an evaluation tool as in
the case of Irrigation Improvement Program in Egypt
3. One out of the five samples of SEAs undertaken in the
NBCs achieved Sustainability Equilibrium Index ≥ 0.8
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10. Findings: Overall Score of SEA based on SEA Model
Sample SEAs Versus the Framework for Sustainability Equilibrium
Sustainability Indicator Variables Sustainability
Equilibrium
SEA Score
𝑉𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 = 𝐸 ∩ 𝑁
𝐵𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
= 𝑆 ∩ 𝑁
𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒
= 𝑆 ∩ 𝐸
SEA 1: SEA on BecA Research by ILRI- Biosciences East and Central Africa
0.75 1.00 0.75 0.73
SEA 2: SEA on Kenya Forest Act, 2005 by the World Bank-Kenya
0.89 1.00 0.89 0.83
SEA 3: Social/Strategic and Environmental Assessment Process for
Bujagali Hydropower Project-Uganda
1.00 1.00 1.00 0.70
SEA 4: SEA on Irrigation Modernization-Egypt
0.88 1.00 0.88 0.77
SEA 5: Strategic/Sectoral, Social and Environmental Assessment of Power
Development Options in the NEL Region
1.00 1.00 1.00 0.70
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  ESU

11. Findings...Cont’d
 Interesting finding was that, one can score 1.0 for all the three factors such as in
SEA 3, the Social/Strategic and Environmental Assessment Process for Bujagali
Hydropower Project-Uganda and in SEA 5, the Strategic/Sectoral, Social and
Environmental Assessment of Power Development Options in the NEL Region,
but still score a Sustainability Equilibrium Index of 0.7 which is less than the set
acceptable Sustainability Equilibrium of 0.8.
 The reason for this scenario was simply because there were some PLs which
might have been totally ignored during the undertaking of an SEA exercise.
 Reference to the analysis for Social/Strategic and Environmental Assessment
Process for Bujagali Hydropower Project-Uganda, three PLs, (scoping, indicators
and SEA influence) were not considered;
 For the case of Strategic/Sectoral, Social and Environmental Assessment of
Power Development Options in the NEL Region, also three PLs (screening,
integration and monitoring) were not considered.
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12. Findings… Cont’d
 A more detailed review of the SEA 3, (the Social/Strategic and Environmental
Assessment Process for Bujagali Hydropower Project-Uganda) gives another
dimension of the model on how SEA influence could help inform if the SEA was
intended on informing on policy, plan or programme.
 The sample on Bujagali does not depict an SEA but a good EIA report. By
definition and from reference of the hierarchy that exists amongst PPP and project
level EIA, an SEA at policy level (the question of why do something addresses the
need, objectives and principles); at plan level (the questions narrows down to,
what to do that addresses methods and capacities); further down at programme
level (the question is simply on where to do it which addresses issues related to
the location).
 The Bujagali SEA does not address any of these questions instead here the
question is simply, “how to do it” which should address the design, minimization
and compensation (that reduces the so called SEA to a project EIA).
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13. Purpose of the Presentation
 The study puts more emphasis on the Sustainability Equilibrium Index than the
isolated consideration of S/E, S/N, or N/E relationships which only inform on where
biases within and among variables have been experienced rather than giving a
wholesome sustainability relationship.
 It is very important that once the S/E, S/N, or N/E relationships have been
computed, one goes ahead to compute the sustainability equilibrium index. This
shall enable one to query the entire process and hence identify PLs with biases on
any of the three variables (S, E & N factors).
 Biases could arise due to the SEA facilitator considering either one or two of the
variables in favour of the other or others at any of the PLs, in this case, the vertical
analysis, based on equations 5(a) to 5(c), has a total score of less than 3 (that is), 2,
1, or 0. Analysis at this level can also inform the facilitator that some PLs have not
taken into consideration the variables equally.
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14. Conclusion and Recommendations
Conclusion – should be based on the research objectives???
 The SEA model was applied on sample of five SEAs undertaken within the NBCs to test on their
suitability in meeting requirements of sustainability.
 Therefore; a score < 0.8 meant that a number of key PLs were ignored in an SEA exercise.
 One out of the five samples of SEAs undertaken in the NBCs achieved Sustainability Equilibrium
Index ≥ 0.8.
 The model framework is applicable at both at PPP formulation level in which it is inbuilt into the
process or it can be used as an assessment tool
 The model can also be used during post performance stage of the proposed PPP to serve as an
evaluation tool as in the case of Irrigation Improvement Program in Egypt.
Recommendations
 To apply the model on any SEA, we recommend the following assumptions:
1. That the PLs have got equal weight; and
2. A sustainable process was achieved when the Sustainability Equilibrium Index was ≥ 0.8;
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15. What should happen next?
From the findings, the final output and the challenges faced, the study gives the
following recommendation:
 The threshold for sustainable utilization of Nile Basin water resources can be
investigated and be inbuilt within the framework model. This can be done by
application of conditional probability to establish the risks posed by the present
activities on the future.
 The model can be applied on related PPPs as in the case of BecA research
activities and the Kenya Forests Act 2005 as in the samples analysed in this study.
 The model can be developed further to be tested on how it performs in situations
where the three pillars of sustainable development (S, E & N) are represented such
that both economy and society are seen to be constrained by environmental
limits, (Ott, 2003).
 Because of changing dynamics – bring other pillars in sustainable development –
political, legal
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16. THANK YOU
email: lugardogaro@gmail.com
lugardogaro2000@yahoo.com
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