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Nicos Perez - Policies and Investments for Climate Resilience
- 1. Policies and Investmentsfor Climate Resilience IFPRI Nicostrato Perez – Presenter Hua Xie Claudia Ringler Khalid Siddig October 2022
- 2. Highlights of Presentation Brief methodology Alternative Climate Futures Changes in temperatures, precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff for Sudan and Nile River countries Impact of Climate Change on food production and accessibility Simulation of Investment Policies (CC countermeasures) Results and Discussions
- 3. Methodology Production Trade OUTPUTS (Food Model) Yields Harvested Area Commodity Prices Consumption OUTPUTS (Water Model) Water availability Water demand Water consumption Water scarcity PostIMPACT Models Hunger and Nutrition GHG Emissions Water Quality Land-use change Water Models (Global Hydrology, River basin mgt, Water Stress) Water demand trends Crop Model Food Model (Global Multi-Market- Supply, Demand and Trade) Macroeconomic and Sectoral Trends SPAM INPUTS Climate Models Sudan-calibrated Multi-market Model The International Model for the Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) is a suite of linked biophysical and economic models • Estimation of the effects of climate change on agriculture • Policy development for climate- resilient agricultural food systems • Assessment of alternative policy scenarios as adaptation to climate change
- 4. Climate Futures: Annualmean temperatures Historical GFDL HGEM IPSL Changes from historical values (0C) By country Baseline GFDL HGEM IPSL Average Sudan (Nile) 27.4 3.2 3.8 3.1 3.4 Sudan (non-Nile) 24.9 3.9 4.2 3.6 3.9 South Sudan 26.9 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.9 Ethiopia 21.0 3.0 3.4 3.2 3.2 Eritrea 25.4 2.4 3.0 2.8 2.8 Egypt 23.2 3.7 3.5 2.8 3.3 Change from baseline
- 5. Climate Futures: Annualprecipitation Historical GFDL HGEM IPSL Changes from historical values (mm/yr) By country Baseline GFDL HGEM IPSL Average Sudan (Nile) 257 60 36 69 55 Sudan (non-Nile) 140 80 53 49 61 South Sudan 959 68 34 153 85 Ethiopia 1,173 90 40 472 201 Eritrea 550 169 124 191 162 Egypt 15 -1 -2 -3 -2 Change from baseline
- 6. Commodities Biophysical effects CombinedBiophysical and Price Effects CC-related Temperature Effect CC-related Water Stress Cumulative Effects Sudan Rest of World ------------------------ % change from NoCC -------------------- ----------- All foocrops -22.78 0.64 -22.29 -27.41 -5.24 Cereals -21.20 0.98 -20.44 -16.77 -7.74 Maize -53.01 1.74 -52.19 -54.73 -17.66 Millet -14.83 5.20 -10.40 -7.89 -3.65 Rice -28.00 -- -28.00 -25.91 -5.61 Sorghum -21.97 0.39 -21.66 -17.72 -3.07 Wheat -26.88 -2.02 -28.36 -26.68 0.82 Fruits and vegetables -25.83 1.18 -25.20 -22.88 -1.95 Oilseed crops -23.76 0.13 -23.67 -25.98 -6.69 Pulses -11.62 0.15 -11.48 -10.71 -0.01 Roots and Tubers -21.94 0.46 -21.58 -27.30 -4.58 Potato -40.92 0.16 -40.82 -39.81 -6.29 Sweet Potato -14.02 0.83 -13.31 -10.95 -0.52 Yams -11.08 0.60 -10.54 -6.95 -3.47 Sugarcane -37.31 1.36 -36.46 -35.43 -10.39 Effects of climate change on productivity
- 7. Effects of climatechange on food production Food Commodities Production 2020 Base Year 2050 No Climate Change* With Climate Change Change 000 mt % All Meat Products 860 2,401 2,408 0.3 Beef 396 1,050 1,048 -0.2 Sheep/Goat Meat 390 1,102 1,108 0.5 Poultry Meat 74 249 252 1.5 Dairy 4,646 8,560 8,591 0.4 Eggs 70 116 116 -0.1 Cereals 5,990 10,824 8,400 -22.4 Millet 1,380 2,672 2,390 -10.6 Sorghum 3,844 6,920 5,243 -24.2 Fruits 3,124 4,381 3,222 -26.5 Vegetables 3,538 7,843 5,420 -30.9 Oilseed crops 4,066 5,853 4,979 -14.9 Pulses 214 442 392 -11.3 Roots and Tubers 922 1,561 1,064 -31.8 Sugarcane 4,249 5,382 3,277 -39.1
- 8. Effects of climatechange on food security and welfare (economic costs) Food Commodities Net Trade of Food 2020 Base Year 2050 No Climate Change* With Climate Change 000 mt Cereals -1,767 -2,907 -5,097 Millet 515 1,115 853 Rice -117 -223 -212 Sorghum -643 -983 -2,492 Wheat -1,371 -2,516 -2,955 Fruits -1,626 -5,070 -5,969 Vegetables -1,111 -3,517 -5,741 Oilseed crops 2,200 2,979 2,144 Pulses -239 -559 -625 Roots and Tubers 44 -422 -816 Sugars -742 -2,030 -2,194 Climate models Welfare Measure Producer Surplus Consumer Surplus Economic Surplus net present value** (billion US dollars) World 2,468 -4,894 -2,427 net present value* (million US dollars) Sudan -9,215 -29,693 -38,908 Annual value -307 -990 -1,297
- 9. 9 The impacts ofclimate change can be substantial, thus, the urgency of investment and adaptation policies for resilient agri-food-system
- 10. IMPACT – InternationalModel for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade Production Trade OUTPUTS (Food Model) Yields Harvested Area Commodity Prices Consumption OUTPUTS (Water Model) Water availability Water demand Water consumption Water scarcity Post IMPACT Models Hunger and Nutrition GHG Emissions Water Quality Land-use change Water Models (Global Hydrology, River basin mgt, Water Stress) Water demand trends Crop Model Food Model (Global Multi-Market- Supply, Demand and Trade) Macroeconomic and Sectoral Trends SPAM INPUTS Climate Models Sudan-calibrated Multi-market Model Investments for Availability Irrigation development Post-harvest infrastructure • Climate resilient technologies • Input delivery and ancillary support system Investment in Agricultural R&D Investments for Accessibility Lowering of prices • Marketing costs • Tariff and taxes • Transport costs Increasing purchasing power • Investment in policy dev’t. to promote economic growth
- 11. Policies and InvestmentStrategies Technical response to climate change I. Investment in Technology Development investment in agricultural R&D R&D for foodcrops – Increased crop productivity by 20% in 15 years – to 2040 R&D for livestock – Increased livestock and poultry productivity by 20% in 15 years – to 2040 Irrigation infrastructure to support the adoption of hi-yield and climate resilient crop technologies Irrigation development – application of modern irrigation technology, including drip irrigation, and precision irrigation – to increase irrigation area coverage by 30% in 15 years – to 2040 Combination of three
- 12. Policies and InvestmentStrategies Institutional response to climate change II. Investment in Rural Enterprise Development This involves the mobilization of farming communities to organize into rural business enterprises – encouraged and supported by the government through: 1) 100% expansion (doubling) of irrigated agricultural land in 15 years to 2040 2) 30% expansion of animal farms in 15 years to 2040 3) RD and E support of 20% productivity increase for crops and livestock 4) Investment in post-harvest processing, transportation, storage and market information services – through Private-Public-Partnership, i.e., public partnership with the community-based rural enterprises. (These lead to more efficient value-chain operations, reduced marketing costs, minimized wastes and losses)
- 13. Food production by2050 Production projections by 2050 % change from CC Food commodities 2020 Base Year NoCC (Counter factual) With CC effects R&D Technology Devt Rural Enterprise Devt R&D Technology Devt Rural Enterprise Devt 000 mt All Meat Products 860 2,401 2,408 2,871 3,431 19.3 42.5 Beef 396 1,050 1,048 1,251 1,496 19.4 42.8 Sheep/Goat Meat 390 1,102 1,108 1,320 1,575 19.2 42.2 Poultry Meat 74 249 252 301 360 19.3 42.7 Dairy 4,646 8,560 8,591 10,266 12,291 19.5 43.1 Eggs 70 116 116 139 167 19.9 43.5 Cereals 5,990 10,824 8,400 11,512 13,849 37.0 64.9 Millet 1,380 2,672 2,390 3,027 3,045 26.7 27.4 Sorghum 3,844 6,920 5,243 7,240 8,816 38.1 68.2 Wheat 746 1,201 749 1,218 1,950 62.6 160.3 Fruits 3,124 4,381 3,222 4,489 5,586 39.3 73.4 Vegetables 3,538 7,843 5,420 7,011 7,042 29.4 29.9 Oilseed crops 4,066 5,853 4,979 6,257 7,179 25.7 44.2 Pulses 214 442 392 553 692 41.1 76.7 Roots and Tubers 922 1,561 1,064 1,381 1,520 29.8 42.8 Sugar 4,249 5,382 3,277 4,799 6,766 46.5 106.5
- 14. Economic benefits ofpolicies and investments for climate resilience Climate models Welfare Measure Producer Surplus Consumer Surplus Economic Surplus net present value* (million US dollars) CC-Effects -9,215 -29,693 -38,908 Annual value -307 -990 -1,297 Irrigation Development 4,160 290 4,450 Annual value 139 10 148 R&D for Foodcrops 14,454 760 15,214 Annual value 482 25 507 R&D for Livestock 13,583 912 14,495 Annual value 453 30 483 Investment in Technology Devt 32,797 2,010 34,807 Annual value 1,093 67 1,160 Investment in Rural enterprise Devt 133,571 3,801 137,372 Annual value 4,452 127 4,579
- 15. 15 The impacts ofclimate change can be substantial, but the benefits from investment and adaptation policies can even be more significant.