The document provides an analysis of current economic and market conditions in the United States and globally. It notes that while US stock markets are hovering near all-time highs, the strength of the dollar has declined this year, reducing returns for US investors. It discusses ongoing uncertainty related to the US presidential election and Federal Reserve interest rate policy. The document examines conditions and outlooks across various commodity markets including crude oil, natural gas, precious metals and cattle.
- Three tech companies - Google, Amazon, and Microsoft - reported strong earnings which led to a $100 billion increase in their combined market capitalization.
- The document discusses speculative valuations and bubbles in certain sectors like tech, pharmaceuticals, and biotech that have been fueled by low interest rates and stimulus seeking growth.
- Both oil and natural gas prices declined during the week as inventories rose more than expected and demand remains weak despite stimulus measures.
U.S. markets saw mixed returns in December as signs of economic recovery were offset by weaknesses emerging in the housing and bond markets. While job growth and consumer confidence recovered from hurricanes, housing data showed declining sales and rising inventories. Bond yields also inverted for the first time since 2000, a potential warning sign of recession. The Federal Reserve raised rates again but investors hoped this signaled the end of the tightening cycle. Overall, the document assessed recent economic indicators and market performance in December and provided an outlook looking into 2006.
- The US equity market has outperformed the Canadian market over the past quarter due to its sector compositions which favor healthcare and technology over energy and utilities. As a result, the US dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar.
- Low energy prices have negatively impacted the Canadian economy, particularly in Alberta, with major firms beginning layoffs. However, low prices are boosting the US economy through increased consumer spending.
- Uncertainty around oil prices and the new NDP government in Alberta are curtailing capital investment, which is now flowing to other provinces like Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Oil prices are expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand.
The document discusses recent market and economic developments and their implications. It notes that while job growth has remained strong, the quality of jobs created has lagged. Total worker compensation has dropped significantly. Commodity prices, especially oil, have impacted markets. Views on precious metals prices like gold diverge, with some bullish but others like EQS bearish as they believe metals will decline if interest rates rise. Overall the document analyzes recent economic data and trader perspectives.
The document provides an analysis of recent market and economic events from the perspective of an investment advisory firm. It discusses factors like low oil and gas prices, consumer spending, Chinese economic slowdown, European debt issues, and upcoming US Federal Reserve decisions that could impact markets. While remaining cautiously optimistic, the firm believes markets may continue fluctuating but eventually retest recent lows unless economic data improves globally. In summary, the document analyzes recent market movements in light of economic news and provides the firm's outlook on whether current conditions can sustain an upward trend.
- The document discusses upcoming Q3 earnings reports and their importance for providing fundamental insights into global supply and demand trends. It notes markets have been volatile due to uncertainty, but earnings reports will help reduce uncertainty by revealing actual profit levels.
- It also summarizes the recent rise in oil prices driven by falling rig counts and geopolitical concerns, but notes inventory levels remain high and further gains may be limited. For natural gas, it discusses oversupply issues and low prices but signs the downward trend may be reversing.
cushman & wakefield the economy cre and investment ideas -Matthew Marshall
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis of the commercial real estate market by the Chief Economist. It summarizes recent volatility in the stock market and factors contributing to it like China's equity plunge and falling oil prices. While these factors have caused discomfort, a continued economic downturn is not expected as U.S. job growth remains strong and negative interest rates are driving more foreign capital into the U.S. The outlook remains positive for commercial real estate as recent fundraising has been strong and major U.S. job markets continue to see strong transaction volumes.
The document summarizes and analyzes recent economic data and events that impact commodity markets. It discusses:
- The July US jobs report which showed 215,000 jobs added and unemployment at 5.3%, a result that was neither strongly positive nor negative. This leaves uncertainty around the timing of the Fed's first rate hike.
- Comments from an Atlanta Fed president supporting a September rate hike if data holds.
- Implications for commodity markets, including that oil and natural gas prices declined last week while uncertainty persists over the Fed and US dollar.
- Upcoming seasonal trends that may lead to natural gas price increases in the next few months.
- Three tech companies - Google, Amazon, and Microsoft - reported strong earnings which led to a $100 billion increase in their combined market capitalization.
- The document discusses speculative valuations and bubbles in certain sectors like tech, pharmaceuticals, and biotech that have been fueled by low interest rates and stimulus seeking growth.
- Both oil and natural gas prices declined during the week as inventories rose more than expected and demand remains weak despite stimulus measures.
U.S. markets saw mixed returns in December as signs of economic recovery were offset by weaknesses emerging in the housing and bond markets. While job growth and consumer confidence recovered from hurricanes, housing data showed declining sales and rising inventories. Bond yields also inverted for the first time since 2000, a potential warning sign of recession. The Federal Reserve raised rates again but investors hoped this signaled the end of the tightening cycle. Overall, the document assessed recent economic indicators and market performance in December and provided an outlook looking into 2006.
- The US equity market has outperformed the Canadian market over the past quarter due to its sector compositions which favor healthcare and technology over energy and utilities. As a result, the US dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar.
- Low energy prices have negatively impacted the Canadian economy, particularly in Alberta, with major firms beginning layoffs. However, low prices are boosting the US economy through increased consumer spending.
- Uncertainty around oil prices and the new NDP government in Alberta are curtailing capital investment, which is now flowing to other provinces like Saskatchewan and British Columbia. Oil prices are expected to remain low due to oversupply and weak demand.
The document discusses recent market and economic developments and their implications. It notes that while job growth has remained strong, the quality of jobs created has lagged. Total worker compensation has dropped significantly. Commodity prices, especially oil, have impacted markets. Views on precious metals prices like gold diverge, with some bullish but others like EQS bearish as they believe metals will decline if interest rates rise. Overall the document analyzes recent economic data and trader perspectives.
The document provides an analysis of recent market and economic events from the perspective of an investment advisory firm. It discusses factors like low oil and gas prices, consumer spending, Chinese economic slowdown, European debt issues, and upcoming US Federal Reserve decisions that could impact markets. While remaining cautiously optimistic, the firm believes markets may continue fluctuating but eventually retest recent lows unless economic data improves globally. In summary, the document analyzes recent market movements in light of economic news and provides the firm's outlook on whether current conditions can sustain an upward trend.
- The document discusses upcoming Q3 earnings reports and their importance for providing fundamental insights into global supply and demand trends. It notes markets have been volatile due to uncertainty, but earnings reports will help reduce uncertainty by revealing actual profit levels.
- It also summarizes the recent rise in oil prices driven by falling rig counts and geopolitical concerns, but notes inventory levels remain high and further gains may be limited. For natural gas, it discusses oversupply issues and low prices but signs the downward trend may be reversing.
cushman & wakefield the economy cre and investment ideas -Matthew Marshall
The document provides an economic outlook and analysis of the commercial real estate market by the Chief Economist. It summarizes recent volatility in the stock market and factors contributing to it like China's equity plunge and falling oil prices. While these factors have caused discomfort, a continued economic downturn is not expected as U.S. job growth remains strong and negative interest rates are driving more foreign capital into the U.S. The outlook remains positive for commercial real estate as recent fundraising has been strong and major U.S. job markets continue to see strong transaction volumes.
The document summarizes and analyzes recent economic data and events that impact commodity markets. It discusses:
- The July US jobs report which showed 215,000 jobs added and unemployment at 5.3%, a result that was neither strongly positive nor negative. This leaves uncertainty around the timing of the Fed's first rate hike.
- Comments from an Atlanta Fed president supporting a September rate hike if data holds.
- Implications for commodity markets, including that oil and natural gas prices declined last week while uncertainty persists over the Fed and US dollar.
- Upcoming seasonal trends that may lead to natural gas price increases in the next few months.
The weekly economic update from Major League Investments provides the following information:
- Job growth increased in July with 163,000 new jobs added, though the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3%.
- Personal incomes rose but consumer spending was flat, and the personal savings rate increased.
- Home prices rose 2.2% in May according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
- The manufacturing sector contracted again according to the ISM manufacturing index.
2017 Market Outlook - International Equity T. Rowe Price
Our Head of International Equity, Chris Alderson, discusses his perspective on the current global equity environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
2017 T. Rowe Price Global Economic OutlookT. Rowe Price
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economy from the perspective of Alan Levenson, Chief U.S. Economist. It notes that global growth quickened in mid-2016 but post-crisis headwinds could limit further recovery. Developed markets are experiencing slower growth than emerging markets. U.S. expansion still has potential but recession risk is low in the near term. Debt levels remain high globally but are decreasing in some developed nations and increasing in others. Inflation is below central bank targets in most nations. Monetary policies continue to diverge between nations as some central banks further reduce rates while others consider reducing stimulus. Political risks remain in key countries and regions in 2017.
Yield differentials and US retail sales key this weekRichard Perry
After a few weeks of recovery on the dollar there are now a few question marks over the longevity of the rebound. Economic data and yield differentials are playing a big role again. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities this week.
2017 Market Outlook - Emerging Markets DebtT. Rowe Price
Portfolio Manager Samy Muaddi, CFA, discusses his perspective on the current emerging markets debt environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
2017 Market Outlook - Global Fixed IncomeT. Rowe Price
Portfolio Manager Quentin Fitzsimmons discusses his perspective on the current global fixed income environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
China and expectations over a Fed rate hike continue to dominate trading sent...Hantec Markets
The build up to Non-farm Payrolls is always much hyped and as we get ever closer to the point of which a rate hike could be announced, the focus on tier one US economic data is magnified even more. On the headline figure 215,000 jobs added with an upward revision of last month to 231,000 is solid if a little unspectacular. Unemployment remains at 5.3% just above the 5.0%/5.2% that the Fed deems to be “full employment”. All fine so far. However, the average hourly earnings fell to 2.1% on the yearly data which remains stubbornly low.
The document provides an outlook and analysis for the week of May 3rd. It summarizes key economic data being released, including non-farm payrolls and PMIs. It also previews major central bank meetings and analyzes the impact of recent data on expectations for US rate hikes. Charts are included analyzing movements in currencies like EUR/USD and USD/JPY as well as stock indices like the DAX and FTSE 100. Risk appetite is seen as being called into question as equities decouple from oil gains and economic growth prospects remain uncertain.
Domestic and international stocks fell last week despite some positive economic indicators in the US. Treasury yields also declined as concerns about slowing global growth remained. Commodity prices dropped significantly, with several commodities reaching multi-year lows. While US economic data such as home sales and jobless claims were encouraging, corporate earnings came in mixed with some large technology companies reporting disappointing results. Overall, markets pulled back after recent highs, though the earnings season has started out better than expected overall.
- U.S. and European stock futures fell while Asian stocks closed lower as investors weighed concerns about global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap.
- European stocks dropped with banks and resources stocks declining the most, as a report showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4.
- Private investors holding about 20% of the bonds involved in Greece's debt restructuring have agreed to participate in the swap, which aims to reduce Greece's debt by 53.5%.
- Sun Life Financial reported a smaller-than-expected profit hurt by weak growth in its U.S. market, while Ford directors are pressing CEO Mark Fields to sharpen strategy on electric cars and boost stock price.
Stocks rallied in May, with several indexes reaching record highs. Economic conditions have improved from a year ago, with inflation stabilizing and business spending recovering. Corporate earnings grew 8.1% in the first quarter, ending a streak of 14 quarters of double-digit growth. While markets have reached milestones, valuations are still relatively reasonable compared to the tech bubble peak in 2000.
US inflation in focus with bond markets increasingly keyHantec Markets
There has been a significant shift in the outlook on bond markets and this is impacting across asset classes. How this plays out in the coming days could be key for the medium term outlook. Focus is on US inflation data this week. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
The document discusses the Russell 2000 index compared to other US stock market indices. It notes that the Russell 2000 has greater diversity than indices like the S&P500 which are dominated by a few large companies. The Russell 2000 provides exposure to smaller, growing companies and is more sensitive to market movements. The document suggests the Russell 2000 may see stronger performance than indices heavily weighted in large energy companies, as smaller firms benefit more from lower energy prices.
Energy Industry Report: Energy Perspectives - January 2015Duff & Phelps
This edition of Energy Perspectives provides a recap of industry activity in 2014. Despite fairly consistent falling crude oil prices over the past six months, the industry experienced a record number of oilfield (OFS) M&A transactions for the fourth year in a row, achieving 329 announced transactions in 2014. For more detail on recent OFS trends, public comps and deal activity, read the report.
This weekly newsletter discusses commodity market trends and provides trading signals. It summarizes that commodities prices continue to weaken due to slowing global growth, especially in China, which is hurting demand. Commodity prices often decline before recessions, so the markets may be signaling an increased recession risk. Short positions are recommended for crude oil, gasoline, diesel and natural gas based on supply/demand fundamentals and technical factors like prices breaching psychological barriers. The dollar's strength is also cited as a bearish influence for commodity prices.
- US and Asian stock futures fell, while European stocks dropped, as concerns over global growth weighed on investor sentiment.
- Data showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4, with declines in investment, exports and consumer spending.
- In Greece, private investors holding about 20% of bonds involved in the country's debt restructuring have agreed to the swap deal terms so far.
- Canadian equity futures were also lower ahead of the market open.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. While the US economy is expanding moderately, the global economy remains weak. The Fed signaled that it will raise rates when further improvement is seen in the labor market. Commodity markets declined after the meeting due to ongoing concerns about the global economy. The author remains bearish on oil and natural gas due to oversupply issues. Short positions in these sectors generated gains last week. The author will be monitoring US economic data and changes in the global supply/demand picture for signs of a reversal in prices.
This document provides an analysis of recent market movements and economic factors. It summarizes that the recent rally in US equities could make October the strongest month of the year. It also discusses that irrational behavior by markets and investors has driven prices rather than economic fundamentals. Specific companies like Walmart are seen as reflecting the broader economic challenges of slowing demand and rising costs. The document concludes by acknowledging the irrational forces at play in global markets and economies.
The weekly economic update from Major League Investments provides the following information:
- Job growth increased in July with 163,000 new jobs added, though the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.3%.
- Personal incomes rose but consumer spending was flat, and the personal savings rate increased.
- Home prices rose 2.2% in May according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
- The manufacturing sector contracted again according to the ISM manufacturing index.
2017 Market Outlook - International Equity T. Rowe Price
Our Head of International Equity, Chris Alderson, discusses his perspective on the current global equity environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
2017 T. Rowe Price Global Economic OutlookT. Rowe Price
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economy from the perspective of Alan Levenson, Chief U.S. Economist. It notes that global growth quickened in mid-2016 but post-crisis headwinds could limit further recovery. Developed markets are experiencing slower growth than emerging markets. U.S. expansion still has potential but recession risk is low in the near term. Debt levels remain high globally but are decreasing in some developed nations and increasing in others. Inflation is below central bank targets in most nations. Monetary policies continue to diverge between nations as some central banks further reduce rates while others consider reducing stimulus. Political risks remain in key countries and regions in 2017.
Yield differentials and US retail sales key this weekRichard Perry
After a few weeks of recovery on the dollar there are now a few question marks over the longevity of the rebound. Economic data and yield differentials are playing a big role again. We consider the outlook for forex, equities and commodities this week.
2017 Market Outlook - Emerging Markets DebtT. Rowe Price
Portfolio Manager Samy Muaddi, CFA, discusses his perspective on the current emerging markets debt environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
2017 Market Outlook - Global Fixed IncomeT. Rowe Price
Portfolio Manager Quentin Fitzsimmons discusses his perspective on the current global fixed income environment and what investors could expect to see in 2017.
China and expectations over a Fed rate hike continue to dominate trading sent...Hantec Markets
The build up to Non-farm Payrolls is always much hyped and as we get ever closer to the point of which a rate hike could be announced, the focus on tier one US economic data is magnified even more. On the headline figure 215,000 jobs added with an upward revision of last month to 231,000 is solid if a little unspectacular. Unemployment remains at 5.3% just above the 5.0%/5.2% that the Fed deems to be “full employment”. All fine so far. However, the average hourly earnings fell to 2.1% on the yearly data which remains stubbornly low.
The document provides an outlook and analysis for the week of May 3rd. It summarizes key economic data being released, including non-farm payrolls and PMIs. It also previews major central bank meetings and analyzes the impact of recent data on expectations for US rate hikes. Charts are included analyzing movements in currencies like EUR/USD and USD/JPY as well as stock indices like the DAX and FTSE 100. Risk appetite is seen as being called into question as equities decouple from oil gains and economic growth prospects remain uncertain.
Domestic and international stocks fell last week despite some positive economic indicators in the US. Treasury yields also declined as concerns about slowing global growth remained. Commodity prices dropped significantly, with several commodities reaching multi-year lows. While US economic data such as home sales and jobless claims were encouraging, corporate earnings came in mixed with some large technology companies reporting disappointing results. Overall, markets pulled back after recent highs, though the earnings season has started out better than expected overall.
- U.S. and European stock futures fell while Asian stocks closed lower as investors weighed concerns about global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap.
- European stocks dropped with banks and resources stocks declining the most, as a report showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4.
- Private investors holding about 20% of the bonds involved in Greece's debt restructuring have agreed to participate in the swap, which aims to reduce Greece's debt by 53.5%.
- Sun Life Financial reported a smaller-than-expected profit hurt by weak growth in its U.S. market, while Ford directors are pressing CEO Mark Fields to sharpen strategy on electric cars and boost stock price.
Stocks rallied in May, with several indexes reaching record highs. Economic conditions have improved from a year ago, with inflation stabilizing and business spending recovering. Corporate earnings grew 8.1% in the first quarter, ending a streak of 14 quarters of double-digit growth. While markets have reached milestones, valuations are still relatively reasonable compared to the tech bubble peak in 2000.
US inflation in focus with bond markets increasingly keyHantec Markets
There has been a significant shift in the outlook on bond markets and this is impacting across asset classes. How this plays out in the coming days could be key for the medium term outlook. Focus is on US inflation data this week. We consider the outlook on forex, equities and commodities markets.
The document discusses the Russell 2000 index compared to other US stock market indices. It notes that the Russell 2000 has greater diversity than indices like the S&P500 which are dominated by a few large companies. The Russell 2000 provides exposure to smaller, growing companies and is more sensitive to market movements. The document suggests the Russell 2000 may see stronger performance than indices heavily weighted in large energy companies, as smaller firms benefit more from lower energy prices.
Energy Industry Report: Energy Perspectives - January 2015Duff & Phelps
This edition of Energy Perspectives provides a recap of industry activity in 2014. Despite fairly consistent falling crude oil prices over the past six months, the industry experienced a record number of oilfield (OFS) M&A transactions for the fourth year in a row, achieving 329 announced transactions in 2014. For more detail on recent OFS trends, public comps and deal activity, read the report.
This weekly newsletter discusses commodity market trends and provides trading signals. It summarizes that commodities prices continue to weaken due to slowing global growth, especially in China, which is hurting demand. Commodity prices often decline before recessions, so the markets may be signaling an increased recession risk. Short positions are recommended for crude oil, gasoline, diesel and natural gas based on supply/demand fundamentals and technical factors like prices breaching psychological barriers. The dollar's strength is also cited as a bearish influence for commodity prices.
- US and Asian stock futures fell, while European stocks dropped, as concerns over global growth weighed on investor sentiment.
- Data showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4, with declines in investment, exports and consumer spending.
- In Greece, private investors holding about 20% of bonds involved in the country's debt restructuring have agreed to the swap deal terms so far.
- Canadian equity futures were also lower ahead of the market open.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at its latest meeting. While the US economy is expanding moderately, the global economy remains weak. The Fed signaled that it will raise rates when further improvement is seen in the labor market. Commodity markets declined after the meeting due to ongoing concerns about the global economy. The author remains bearish on oil and natural gas due to oversupply issues. Short positions in these sectors generated gains last week. The author will be monitoring US economic data and changes in the global supply/demand picture for signs of a reversal in prices.
This document provides an analysis of recent market movements and economic factors. It summarizes that the recent rally in US equities could make October the strongest month of the year. It also discusses that irrational behavior by markets and investors has driven prices rather than economic fundamentals. Specific companies like Walmart are seen as reflecting the broader economic challenges of slowing demand and rising costs. The document concludes by acknowledging the irrational forces at play in global markets and economies.
- The document discusses how Labor Day may mark the end of summer but not the end of market volatility this year. Uncertainty around China, the Fed, commodities, and equities is fueling high volatility.
- Bill Gross, a prominent bond investor, recommends cash or near-cash investments due to ongoing uncertainty and risk. His comments add to concerns that ordinary investors may reduce market exposure.
- Uncertainty around China, the Fed interest rate decision, Europe, and Japan means volatility is likely to continue through the autumn. The document argues this "volatility heat wave" is just beginning.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document provides an analysis of global markets and the economy from FinLight Research. Key points include:
1) The US election uncertainty is over but markets are still digesting implications of Trump's victory. Earnings had been improving but higher wages could weigh on margins.
2) The global economy appears to be improving but investors should avoid complacency given uncertainty. The focus is on 3Q earnings season, rising wages, expected inflation, and volatile volatility.
3) Macroeconomic indicators show mixed signals with strong employment/income but weak industrial production. Systemic risks include high Chinese debt and a potential hard Brexit.
4) Equity valuations remain high and earnings growth is needed for further gains.
Brian Nash presented on global markets and the economic outlook. Key points include:
- Global growth was slow to start 2016 but recovered, supported by a steady US economy.
- Inflation is expected to rise gradually in many countries due to base effects from low commodity prices.
- China's economy is slowing but more stimulus measures are expected to support stabilization.
- US economic growth remains mixed with mid- and late-cycle dynamics, supporting stocks overall.
- Emerging markets rebounded in Q1 after weakness, while a weaker dollar provided a boost to returns.
It's not getting any easier to invest, with the US economy growing quickly in the midst of trade wars and rising interest rates. The rest of the world is performing more modestly, and is more worried by US developments than the Americans.
Australia's doing better than we realise, with expansion of our resource exports, and population growth supportive of our economy, if not our stock market.
The easy gains in markets are past - we are confronted by rising world interest rates in conjunction with already elevated asset prices. Managing risk and avoiding complacency will be key.
Growth stocks are most expensive relative to their net present value, while value stocks have been depressed in relative terms. Markets are overpricing growth and underpricing stability.
The FOMC minutes revealed disagreement among members about whether to raise rates in September. This uncertainty is causing volatility in markets. While some signals point to a rate hike, others suggest the Fed may pause due to concerns over a slowing Chinese economy and its potential impact on the US. Commodities have continued declining, suggesting weakness in the global economy. The Fed faces challenges in responding to economic troubles abroad while the US risks being impacted as well.
The document provides a quarterly review by Seaport Investment Management. It summarizes the volatile market conditions in Q1 2016, with global equities rebounding from losses to end barely positive. It discusses ongoing economic slowing and downward revisions to growth forecasts. Seaport's portfolio returned 2.2% in Q1 through a defensive structure that has buffered volatility while providing stable income. The portfolio remains defensively positioned across asset classes like equity, credit, and mortgage to balance upside potential with downside protection.
The document discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to not raise interest rates at their most recent meeting, effectively continuing their "Groundhog Day" of keeping rates near zero since 2008. This created more uncertainty for markets. The author argues the Fed lacks clear direction and their inaction implies greater risks to the economy. Markets now do not expect a rate hike until March 2016 at the earliest. The document also discusses bearish factors for oil prices despite an earlier inventory draw, as total inventories and days of demand coverage rose significantly, indicating oversupply.
The document discusses the Greek debt crisis and its potential impacts. It notes that while Greece's debt issues are small compared to China's, a Greek default could still negatively impact the global economy and markets. It also summarizes that the author remains bullish on oil and refined products but bearish on natural gas due to oversupply issues. China's large equity market gains and margin debt are highlighted as a potential risk to monitor as well.
The document discusses the recent rally in commodity and equity markets after predictions of a 2016 US recession. It provides details on positive recent US economic data that has driven the rally, including upward revisions to Q4 GDP and better-than-expected employment numbers. However, it cautions that the global economic outlook remains uncertain, with risks including weak data from China and Japan and potential "Brexit." It argues that while recession may not have reached the US yet, economic tides can change rapidly.
The document discusses recent volatility in commodity markets driven by global macroeconomic and geopolitical news. It notes that industrial metals like iron ore have fallen sharply due to uncertainty around Chinese demand. It summarizes that China's efforts to prop up its stock market are delaying an inevitable correction, which could significantly impact global commodity demand. The document also cites bearish supply factors for energy markets like the potential resumption of Iranian oil exports. Overall it maintains a bearish outlook across commodities given demand-side uncertainties and resilient supply.
Wall Street saw significant declines in January as concerns about the fragility of economic recovery, bank reforms, China's tightening of lending standards, and Greece's debt crisis rattled investors. The Dow fell 3.2% for its first loss since June, while Treasury yields dipped as investors fled to safe haven government assets. Though fourth quarter GDP grew at a 5.7% rate, gains were attributed to temporary inventory adjustments rather than sustainable growth.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
1. The portfolio manager discusses the market performance in Q2 2014, with the Canadian equity markets outperforming other global regions.
2. He explains that central bank monetary policies, particularly from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, have been a key driver for the stock market rally over the past few years by keeping interest rates low.
3. The portfolio manager reiterates his advice to investors to stick to their customized plans and not be deterred by short-term market fluctuations, as the plans are designed to navigate periods of volatility.
BlackRock: 2014 Outlook The List - What to Know, What to DoEcon Matters
The document provides a mid-year update on the 2014 outlook for various asset classes and investment themes. It notes that stocks have outperformed bonds so far in 2014 and are on pace for mid to upper single digit returns by year-end. It maintains the views that economic growth will continue improving but remain below trend, and that interest rates will trend upward modestly in the second half of the year. Key investment themes to seek growth while managing volatility, find income but don't overreach, and rethink bonds also remain intact.
The euphoria of the past year carried into the first quarter of 2014 only to be rudely interrupted by geopolitical events as Russia took over the Crimea. The hue and outcry was heard around the world and global markets were shaken by this event.
This document discusses volatility and provides strategies for managing risk. It begins by stating that moderate volatility is healthy for financial markets as it separates strong from weak investments. The document then discusses three components needed for a well-functioning financial system: cognitive diversity among investors, full disclosure of information, and rewards/penalties for correct/incorrect views. It suggests investors should focus on owning businesses rather than reacting to market fluctuations, and construct diversified portfolios that are not overly correlated with any single index. Strategies discussed for managing risk include owning a variety of assets, investing globally for currency exposure benefits, and focusing on long-term goals rather than short-term volatility.
The S&P 500 finished 2018 in negative territory for the first time since 2008, down -4.6% for the year. Volatility increased significantly across global markets as economic growth moderated and trade tensions rose. The CBOE Volatility Index increased 130% in 2018 compared to 78% in 2008, indicating a more turbulent decline. Investor unease over trade and monetary policy contributed to the rise in volatility, exemplified by an 8% market fall following the Federal Reserve's signal of slightly more aggressive rate hikes than expected in 2019.
Similar to Newsletter 08302016 Final Volume 2 Issue 6 (20)
This document discusses the Cubs winning the World Series in 2016 and draws parallels to economic events. It argues that just because something hasn't happened for a long time, like the Cubs winning or a depression in the US economy, does not mean it cannot happen. It notes that the Cubs victory was a "Black Swan" event and that Black Swans, or unexpected events, are real. It also suggests that the long economic expansion in the US could be nearing its end, and a recession may be around the corner, acting as a "Black Swan" event for the economy. The document then summarizes commentary on precious metals markets, interest rates, and global debt levels and their implications for the price of gold.
The document discusses the impacts and implications of Brexit on global markets and the economy. It argues that while markets have largely recovered from the initial shock of Brexit, underlying economic issues remain. Central banks have helped prop up markets through monetary policies like low interest rates and liquidity injections. However, Brexit highlighted growing unrest with the current economic system as inequality and low-wage jobs increase. The long-term stability of the global economy remains precarious as repeated shocks continue to weaken its foundations, similar to a unstable game of Jenga. Precious metals like gold benefited as a safe haven investment following Brexit. The full consequences of Brexit will only become clear as the UK's exit negotiations with the EU progress.
1) The document discusses unicorns, which are private companies valued at $1 billion or more. Venture capitalists seek these large investments to offset failures and hit "home runs."
2) Unicorns fuel investor imagination and optimism, which can boost markets beyond just the tech sector. Periods of strong unicorn activity, like the 1990s, correspond to broad market rallies.
3) While some see current unicorn valuations as overextended, continued private funding of companies to grow beyond $1 billion valuations may sustain optimism and growth across many sectors.
This document provides a weekly newsletter on commodity market signals and analysis from EQS Capital Management. It summarizes recent jobs and economic data and discusses its implications. The main points are:
1) The latest jobs report showed stronger than expected job growth, but digging deeper reveals many of the new jobs are low-paying, part-time roles. This calls into question how much the data really indicates economic strength.
2) Commodity prices fell last week on signs of increased supply and weaker demand outlook. Oil inventories rose again and production increases are outpacing expectations of declines.
3) Natural gas prices also declined as inventories hit record levels for the time of year. Mild weather forecasts suggest storage
Spoofing involves placing bids or offers with the intent to cancel them before execution to manipulate markets for profit. A recent criminal case in the US found Michael Coscia guilty of spoofing in futures markets using computer algorithms. The document discusses how spoofing works by placing large orders to influence prices and then canceling them to profit from the resulting price movement. It notes regulators are trying to crack down on deceptive trading practices like spoofing but that traders will always look for ways to gain an advantage, similar to athletes using performance-enhancing drugs.
- The document discusses the Federal Reserve's failure to raise interest rates at its September and November meetings, leaving the economy and markets in limbo without clear direction.
- It argues the Fed is in a difficult position, as raising rates too early could damage the economy, but continuing low rates risks creating bubbles and losing credibility.
- The author believes rates will need to stay very low, possibly until 2020-2021, to avoid pushing the US economy into a prolonged period of stagnation like Japan experienced.
- The rest of the document covers brief movements in the oil and natural gas markets in response to supply data and bargain buying.
The document summarizes the key points of the Iran nuclear deal reached between Iran and six world powers. The deal will lift sanctions on Iran in exchange for curbing its nuclear program. This will open up Iranian oil reserves to the global market, estimated to increase supply by 500,000 barrels per day. It will also allow Iran to sell natural gas. The increased supply of oil and gas from Iran is expected to put downward pressure on prices. While the deal could face opposition, it represents a major shift in opening up Iran's economy after years of isolation.
The document discusses the impact of Greece voting "no" to accepting the latest bailout package from European creditors. It summarizes that Greece rejecting the deal has introduced uncertainty that is pressuring commodity prices lower. Specifically, it recommends staying clear of oil and product exposures while markets digest the implications of Greece and potential contagion. It also notes that China has taken actions to support its stock market, which EQS was aware of even before the Greek vote.
The document discusses millennials and their impact on the economy. It notes that millennials make up 25% of the US population and represent over $1 trillion in spending. As a large and unique generation, millennials were shaped by different life experiences than previous generations. However, it is difficult to generalize about millennials' characteristics and how they will impact areas like spending, saving, and investing. The document concludes by apologizing for how hard millennials are to understand and manage.