A monthly summary of global economic performance including employment, trade, business conditions, leading indicators and regional data.

1. ....
Laird Research - Economics
January 11, 2015
Where we are now . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Indicators for US Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Global Financial Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
US Key Interest Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
US Inflation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
QE Taper Tracker . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Exchange Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
US Banking Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
US Employment Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
US Business Activity Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
US Consumption Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
US Housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Global Business Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Canadian Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
European Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Chinese Indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Global Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Where we are now
Welcome to the Laird Report. We present a selection economic data
from around the world to help figure where we are today.
In theory, this is the best of times in North America. Unemploy-
ment is dropping like a stone, inflation is low, oil prices cracked in half
and companies are reporting a general increase in tone across the board
(assuming you aren’t an oil services company). Canada seems okay, de-
spite the fears over housing prices and Western Canada is bracing for
mass layoffs in the next few months as oil prices have cracked.
There’s a real feeling of anxiousness across the globe. Despite all the
debt that governments have taken on to help their economies and the
risks from slowdowns in major markets like Europe and China, interest
rates are at all time lows - if you look at interest rates as indicators
of risk, then you will have a hard time making these two pictures fit
together.
Perhaps the strangest thing is (the lack of) inflation. Certainly there
is the standard chorus that “the government is lying” however even 3rd
party sources like TheBillionPricesProject at MIT are showing that
the CPI isn’t far off the mark in the US and elsewhere. As much as we
look at core CPI and PCE to ignore the price swings of oil and food
- new oil prices are very helpful to consumers. See page 25 - Europe
is essentially in deflation, even with employment high (though improv-
ing). It’s like stagflation’s evil twin brother - deflation actually makes
debt loads worse. And its not like the usual government level of interest
rates is helpful here - everyone is already close to zero. It just doesn’t
make any sense.
Formatting Notes The grey bars on the various charts are OECD
recession indicators for the respective countries. In many cases, the last
available value is listed, along with the median value (measured from
as much of the data series as is available).
Subscription Info For a FREE subscription to this monthly re-
port, please visit sign up at our website: www.lairdresearch.com
Laird Research, January 11, 2015

2. Indicators for US Economy
Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the
economy as a whole changes. They are useful as short-term predictors
of the economy. Our list includes the Philly Fed’s Leading Index which
summarizes multiple indicators; initial jobless claims and hours worked
(both decrease quickly when demand for employee services drops and
vice versa); purchasing manager indicies; new order and housing per-
mit indicies; delivery timings (longer timings imply more demand in
the system) and consumer sentiment (how consumers are feeling about
their own financial situation and the economy in general).
Leading Index for the US
Index:Est.6monthgrowth
−3−11234
median: 1.41
Nov 2014: 1.71
Growth
Contraction
Initial Unemployment Claims
1000'sofClaimsperWeek
200400600
median: 351.25
Jan 2015: 290.50
Manufacturing Ave. Weekly Hours Worked
Hours
394041424344
median: 40.60
Dec 2014: 42.20
ISM Manfacturing − PMI
Index:SteadyState=50
3040506070
median: 53.40
Dec 2014: 55.50
expanding economy
contracting economy
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods
BillionsofDollars
150200250300
median: 183.11
Nov 2014: 241.56
ISM Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries
Index
40506070
median: 51.65
Dec 2014: 59.30
Slower Deliveries
Faster Deliveries
Capex (ex. Defense & Planes)
Percentchange(3months)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−10−505
median: 0.86
Nov 2014: −0.98
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
IndexValue
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−4−202
median: 0.08
Nov 2014: 0.73
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index1966Q1=100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
507090110
median: 88.30
Dec 2014: 93.60
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 2

3. Global Financial Markets
Global Stock Market Returns
Country Index Name Close Date Current
Value
Weekly
Change
Monthly
Change
3 month
Change
Yearly
Change
Corr to
S&P500
Corr to
TSX
North America
USA S&P 500 Jan 09 2,044.8 -0.7% J -0.7% J 6.0% I 11.2% I 1.00 0.73
USA NASDAQ Composite Jan 09 4,704.1 -0.5% J -1.3% J 7.4% I 13.2% I 0.94 0.68
USA Wilshire 5000 Total Market Jan 09 21,497.1 -0.8% J -0.2% J 6.2% I 9.6% I 0.99 0.75
Canada S&P TSX Jan 09 14,384.9 -2.5% J 1.3% I -0.5% J 5.5% I 0.73 1.00
Europe and Russia
France CAC 40 Jan 09 4,179.1 -1.7% J -2.0% J 0.9% I -1.1% J 0.59 0.48
Germany DAX Jan 09 9,648.5 -1.2% J -1.5% J 7.1% I 2.4% I 0.55 0.43
United Kingdom FTSE Jan 09 6,501.1 -0.7% J -0.4% J 1.1% I -2.8% J 0.59 0.51
Russia Market Vectors Russia ETF Jan 09 15.2 2.8% I -9.7% J -26.6% J -41.6% J 0.35 0.39
Asia
Taiwan TSEC weighted index Jan 09 9,215.6 -1.0% J 0.9% I 2.8% I 8.2% I 0.25 0.12
China Shanghai Composite Index Jan 06 3,351.4 5.9% I 11.0% I 40.7% I 63.8% I -0.09 -0.24
Japan NIKKEI 225 Jan 09 17,197.7 -1.5% J -3.5% J 11.1% I 8.3% I 0.07 0.00
Hong Kong Hang Seng Jan 09 23,920.0 0.3% I 1.8% I 1.6% I 5.0% I 0.18 0.03
Korea Kospi Jan 09 1,924.7 -0.1% J -2.3% J -0.8% J -1.1% J 0.19 0.10
South Asia and Austrailia
India Bombay Stock Exchange Jan 09 27,458.4 -1.5% J -1.2% J 3.1% I 32.6% I 0.28 0.19
Indonesia Jakarta Jan 09 5,216.7 -0.5% J 1.8% I 4.5% I 24.2% I 0.02 -0.02
Malaysia FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Jan 09 1,732.4 -1.2% J -0.3% J -5.3% J -5.2% J 0.42 0.23
Australia All Ordinaries Jan 09 5,440.1 0.5% I 3.5% I 2.8% I 2.1% I 0.14 0.07
New Zealand NZX 50 Index Gross Jan 09 5,584.8 0.3% I 0.8% I 6.1% I 14.8% I 0.15 0.08
South America
Brasil IBOVESPA Jan 09 48,840.0 0.7% I -2.7% J -14.7% J -1.0% J 0.31 0.37
Argentina MERVAL Buenos Aires Jan 09 8,459.6 -2.4% J -4.8% J -17.1% J 57.4% I 0.45 0.46
Mexico Bolsa index Jan 09 42,382.4 0.6% I 0.1% I -3.9% J 1.9% I 0.64 0.47
MENA and Africa
Egypt Market Vectors Egypt ETF Jan 09 58.9 0.4% I -6.8% J -12.6% J 10.6% I 0.33 0.08
(Gulf States) Market Vectors Gulf States ETF Jan 09 26.2 -0.0% J -3.7% J -19.1% J -2.6% J 0.47 0.30
South Africa iShares MSCI South Africa Index Jan 09 65.5 3.1% I 3.4% I 3.5% I 10.8% I 0.64 0.51
(Africa) Market Vectors Africa ETF Jan 09 25.7 -1.3% J -1.3% J -13.0% J -12.0% J 0.54 0.49
Commodities
USD Spot Oil West Texas Int. Jan 05 $50.0 -6.4% J -24.0% J -44.6% J -46.3% J 0.19 0.45
USD Gold LME Spot Jan 09 $1,211.2 2.3% I 0.4% I -1.3% J -1.2% J -0.06 -0.06
Note: Correlations are based on daily arithmetic returns for the most recent 100 trading days.
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 3

4. S&P 500 Composite Index
The S&P 500 Composite Index is widely regarded as the best single
gauge of the large cap U.S. equities market. A key figure is the valua-
tion level of the S&P500 as measured by the Price/Earnings ratio. We
present two versions: (1) a 12-month trailing earnings version which
reflects current earnings but is skewed by short term variances and (2)
a cyclically adjusted version which looks at the inflation adjusted earn-
ings over a 10 year period (i.e. at least one business cycle). Forecasted
earnings numbers are estimates provided by S&P.
S&P 500 Profit Margins and Overall Corporate Profit Margins (Trailing 12 months)
Percent
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
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85
86
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88
89
90
91
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93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Percent
Total Corporate Profits (% of GDP) − median: 6.2%, Q3/14: 10.8%
Net Profit Margin (S&P 500 Earnings / Revenue) − median: 6.6%, Q3/14: 9.2%
S&P Quarterly Earnings (USD$ Inflation Adjusted to current prices)
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
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85
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90
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94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
−5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
−5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
Tech Bubble
Japanese Asset Bubble
House BubbleAsian Financial Crisis
US Financial Crisis
Eurozone crisis
Oil Crisis I Oil Crisis II
Gulf War
Savings and Loans Crisis
High Inflation Period
Afganistan/Iraq WarVietnam War
Reported Earnings
Operating Earnings
Trailing P/E Ratios for S&P500
63
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66
67
68
69
70
71
72
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74
75
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02
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12
13
14
15
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
Multiple
Multiple
12−month P/E ( median = 17.4, Jan = 18.1)
10−year CAPE ( median = 19.4, Jan = 25.1)
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 4

5. S&P 500 Composite Distributions
This is a view of the price performance of the S&P 500 index com-
panies. The area of each box is proportional to the company’s market
cap, while the colour is determined by the percentage change in price
over the past month. In addition, companies are sorted according to
their industry group.
AAPL
−2.7%
MSFT
−2.9%
GOOG
−7%
FB
3.5%
ORCL
3.1%
INTC
−1.1%
V
0.92%
IBM
−1.5%
CSCO
0.72%
QCOM
3.7%
MA
EMC
ACN
TXN
MU
NFLX
EA
CA
BRK−A
0.97%
WFC
−2.1%
JPM
−1.1%
BAC
1.4%
C
AXP
GS
USB
AIG
MS
SPG BLK
MET
BK
AMT
TRV
BEN
STT
ALL
AFL ICE
CB
AVB
VTR
PLD
STI WY
HST
HIG
IVZ
L
RF
JNJ
−2.9%
PFE
4.4%
MRK
4.1%
GILD
1.7%
AMGN
ABBV
BMY
UNH BIIB
LLY MDT
ACT
ABT
AGN
ESRX
TMO BAX
ALXN
SYK
AET
CI
BDX
ZTS
MYL
BSX
STJ DVA
A
DIS
3%
CMCSA
−0.55%
HD
AMZN
−8.9%
MCD
NKE
FOXA
TWX
LOW
F
GM
TGT
TJX
DTV
TWC LB
M
CMG
DLPH
GPS
UA
WMT
4.2%
PG
KO
PEP
−2.2%
PM
−4.4%
CVS
8.6%
MO
0.6%
WBA CL KR
GIS
ADM
EL
K
LO
GE
−7.6%
UTX
MMM
2.2%
UNP
UPS
BA
LMT
CAT
GD
RTN
PCP
NSC
ETN
NOC
GLW
DE
LUV
CMI
WM
IR
XOM
−0.27%
CVX
−3.2% SLB
−4.3%
COP
OXY
KMI
PSX
HAL
NOV
VLO
BHI
DVN
APA
SE
HES
PXD
DD
MON
DOW
LYB
PX
ECL
SHW
IP
AA
CF
DUK
NEE
SO
D ED
VZ
−6.5%
T
−4.7%
Information Technology Financials
Health Care
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Industrials
Energy Materials
Utilities
Telecommunications
Services
<−25.0% −20.0% −15.0% −10.0% −5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% >25.0%
% Change in Price from Dec 1, 2014 to Jan 9, 2015
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Utilities 3.8% I 1.7 1.8 20.1
Health Care 1.6% I 3.4 4.2 25.9
Consumer Staples 1.1% I 2.1 5.7 23.4
Consumer Discretionary 0.5% I 1.6 4.4 20.9
Materials 0.2% I 1.7 3.8 23.4
Average Median Median Median
Sector Change P/Sales P/Book P/E
Financials 0.2% I 3.1 1.6 18.1
Industrials -0.7% J 1.7 3.4 19.8
Information Technology -0.9% J 3.4 4.0 21.2
Energy -3.3% J 1.4 1.4 11.8
Telecommunications Services -5.8% J 1.4 4.4 29.9
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 5

6. US Equity Valuations
A key valuation metric is Tobin’s q: the ratio between the market
value of the entire US stock market versus US net assets at replacement
cost (ie. what you pay versus what you get). Warren Buffet famously
follows stock market value as a percentage of GNP, which is highly
(93%) correlated to Tobin’s q.
We can also take the reverse approach: assume the market has
valuations correct, we can determine the required returns of future es-
timated earnings. These are quoted for both debt (using BAA rated
securities as a proxy) and equity premiums above the risk free rate (10
year US Treasuries). These figures are alternate approaches to under-
standing the current market sentiment - higher premiums indicate a
demand for greater returns for the same price and show the level of
risk-aversion in the market.
Tobin's q (Market Equity / Market Net Worth) and S&P500 Price/Sales
63
64
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66
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14
15
16
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Buying assets at a discount
Paying up for growth
Tobin Q (median = 0.75, Sep = 1.09)
S&P 500 Price/Sales (median = 1.32, Sep = 1.73)
Equity and Debt Risk Premiums: Spread vs. Risk Free Rate (10−year US Treasury)
63
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67
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13
14
15
16
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Implied Equity Premium (median = 4.2%, Dec = 4.9%)
Debt (BAA) Premium (median = 2.0%, Dec = 2.6%)
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 6

7. US Mutual Fund Flows
Fund flows describe the net investments in equity and bond mutual
funds in the US market, as described in ICI’s “Trends in Mutual Fund
Investing” report. Note however that this is only part of the story as
it does not include ETF fund flows - part of the changes are investors
entering or leaving the market, and part is investors shifting to ETF’s
from mutual funds.
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$billions(monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−40−2002040
Domestic Equity
World Equity
Taxable Bonds
Municipal Bonds
US Net New Investment Cash Flow to Mutual Funds
US$billions(Monthly)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
−60−40−200204060
Flows to Equity
Flows to Bonds
Net Market Flows
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 7

8. US Key Interest Rates
Interest rates are often leading indicators of stress in the financial
system. The yield curve show the time structure of interest rates on
government bonds - Usually the longer the time the loan is outstanding,
the higher the rate charged. However if a recession is expected, then
the fed cuts rates and this relationship is inverted - leading to negative
spreads where short term rates are higher than long term rates.
Almost every recession in the past century has been preceeded by an
inversion - though not every inversion preceeds a recession (just most
of the time).
For corporate bonds, the key issue is the spread between bond rates
(i.e. AAA vs BAA bonds) or between government loans (LIBOR vs
Fedfunds - the infamous “TED Spread”). Here a spike correlates to an
aversion to risk, which is an indication that something bad is happen-
ing.
US Treasury Yield Curves
ForwardInstantaneousRates(%)
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0Jan 8, 2015 (Today)
Dec 8, 2014 (1 mo ago)
Oct 8, 2014 (3 mo ago)
08 Jan 2014 (1 yr ago)
3 Month & 10 Yr Treasury Yields
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
10 Yr Treasury
3 Mo Treasury
Spread
AAA vs. BAA Bond Spreads
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Percent
AAA
BAA
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
median: 91.00
Jan 2015: 96.00
0
100
200
300
0
100
200
300
Spread(bps)
LIBOR vs. Fedfunds Rate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Percent
3 mos t−bill
LIBOR
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
median: 36.62
Jan 2015: 22.56
0
100
200
300
0
100
200
300
Spread(bps)
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 8

9. US Inflation
Generally, the US Fed tries to anchor long run inflation expectations
to approximately 2%. Inflation can be measured with the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) or the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
index.
In both cases, it makes sense to exclude items that vary quickly like
Food and Energy to get a clearer picture of inflation (usually called
Core Inflation). The Fed seems to think PCI more accurately reflects
the entire basket of goods and services that households purchase.
Finally, we can make a reasonable estimate of future inflation ex-
pectations by comparing real return and normal bonds to construct an
imputed forward inflation expectation. The 5y5y chart shows expected
5 year inflation rates at a point 5 years in the future. Neat trick that.
Consumer Price Index
Percent
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97
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99
00
01
02
03
04
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08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
−1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
US Inflation Rate YoY% (Nov = 1.3%)
US Inflation ex Food & Energy YoY% (Nov = 1.7%)
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Percent(YearoverYear)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−10123456
PCE Inflation Rate YoY% (Nov = 1.2%)
PCE Core Inflation YoY% (Nov = 1.4%)
5−Year, 5−Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Percent
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
−10123456
5 year forward Inflation Expectation
Actual 5yr Inflation (CPI measure)
Actual 5yr Inflation (PCE Measure)
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 9

10. QE Taper Tracker
The US has been using the program of Quantitative Easing to pro-
vide monetary stimulous to its economy. The Fed has engaged in a
series of programs (QE1, QE2 & QE3) designed to drive down long
term rates and improve liquidity though purchases of treasuries, mor-
gage backed securites and other debt from banks.
The higher demand for long maturity securities would drive up their
price, but as these securities have a fixed coupon, their yield would be
decreased (yield ≈ coupon / price) thus driving down long term rates.
In 2011-2012, “Operation Twist” attempted to reduce rates without
increasing liquidity. They went back to QE in 2013.
The Fed chairman suggested in June 2013 the economy was recover-
ing enough that they could start slowing down purchases (“tapering”).
The Fed backed off after a brief market panic. The Fed announced in
Dec 2013 that it was starting the taper, a decision partly driven by
seeing key targets of inflation around 2% and unemployment being less
than 6.5%. In Oct 2014, they announced the end of purchases.
QE Asset Purchases to Date (Treasury & Mortgage Backed Securities)
Trillions
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
QE1 QE2 Operation Twist QE3 TaperTreasuries
Mortgage Backed Securities
Total Monthly Asset Purchases (Treasury + Mortgage Backed Securities)
Billions
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
−100
−50
0
50
100
150
200
Month to date Jan 07: $−0.1
Inflation and Unemployment − Relative to Targets
Percent
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
Target Unemployment 6.5%
Target Inflation 2%
U.S. 10 Year and 3 Month Treasury Constant Maturity Yields
Percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Short Term Rates:
Once at zero, Fed moved to QE
Long Term Rates:
Moving up in anticipation of Taper?
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 10

11. Exchange Rates
10 Week Moving Average CAD Exchange Rates
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0.620.710.810.901.001.09
USA/CAD
0.550.610.660.720.770.82
Euro/CAD
59.1674.7190.26105.81121.36136.91
Japan/CAD
0.380.440.490.550.610.67
U.K./CAD
0.590.981.361.742.122.51
Brazil/CAD
CAD Appreciating
CAD Depreciating
Change in F/X: Dec 1 2014 to Jan 2 2015
(Trade Weighted Currency Index of USD Trading Partners)
−3.0%
−1.5%
1.5%
3.0%
Euro
1.1%
UK
−0.4%
Japan
−1.1%
South Korea
−3.2%
China
−1.9%
India
−0.7%
Brazil
2.3%
Mexico
3.3%
Canada
0.5%
USA
2.9%
Country vs. Average
Appreciating
Depreciating
% Change over 3 months vs. Canada
<−10.0% −8.0% −6.0% −4.0% −2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% >10.0%
CAD depreciatingCAD appreciating
ARG
4.9%
AUS
−1.8%
BRA
−4.5%
CHN
6.6%
IND
4.2%
RUS
−30.3%
USA
6.5%
EUR
−1.2%
JPY
−3.6%
KRW
4.4%
MXN
−3.0%
ZAR
1.8%
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 11

12. US Banking Indicators
The banking and finance industry is a key indicator of the health
of the US economy. It provides crucial liquidity to the economy in the
form of credit, and the breakdown of that system is one of the exac-
erbating factors of the 2008 recession. Key figures to track are the
Net Interest Margins which determine profitability (ie. the difference
between what a bank pays to depositors versus what the bank is paid
by creditors), along with levels of non-performing loans (i.e. loan loss
reserves and actual deliquency rates).
US Banks Net Interest Margin
Percent
3.54.04.5
median: 3.95
2014 Q3: 3.09
Repos Outstanding with Fed. Reserve
BillionsofDollars
0100300500
median: 54.19
Jan 2015: 241.44
Bank ROE − Assets between $300M−$1B
Percent
051015
median: 12.83
2014 Q3: 9.57
Consumer Credit Outstanding
%YearlyChange
−505101520
median: 7.68
Nov 2014: 7.00
Total Business Loans
%YearlyChange
−2001020 median: 8.54
Dec 2014: 13.24
US Nonperforming Loans
Percent
12345
median: 2.29
2014 Q3: 2.13
St. Louis Financial Stress Index
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0246
median: 0.027
Jan 2015: −0.95
Commercial Paper Outstanding
TrillionsofDollars
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1.01.41.82.2
median: 1.35
Jan 2015: 1.09
Residential Morgage Delinquency Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
246810
median: 2.31
2014 Q3: 6.98
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 12

13. US Employment Indicators
Unemployment rates are considered the “single best indicator of
current labour conditions” by the Fed. The pace of payroll growth is
highly correlated with a number of economic indicators.Payroll changes
are another way to track the change in unemployment rate.
Unemployment only captures the percentage of people who are in
the labour market who don’t currently have a job - another measure
is what percentage of the whole population wants a job (employed or
not) - this is the Participation Rate.
The Beveridge Curve measures labour market efficiency by looking
at the relationship between job openings and the unemployment rate.
The curve slopes downward reflecting that higher rates of unemploy-
ment occur coincidentally with lower levels of job vacancies.
Unemployment Rate
Percent
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
median: 6.20
Dec 2014: 5.60
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Percent
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2.02.53.03.54.0
Beveridge Curve (Unemployment vs. Job Openings)
Unemployment Rate (%)
JobOpenings(%totalEmployment)
Dec 2000 − Dec 2008
Jan 2009 − Sep 2014
Oct 2014
Participation Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
6364656667
median: 66.05
Dec 2014: 62.70
Total Nonfarm Payroll Change
MonthlyChange(000s)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−5000500
median: 163.00
Dec 2014: 252.00
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 13

14. There are a number of other ways to measure the health of employ-
ment. The U6 Rate includes people who are part time that want a
full-time job - they are employed but under-utilitized. Temporary help
demand is another indicator of labour market tightness or slack.
The large chart shows changes in private industry employment lev-
els over the past year, versus how well those job segments typically pay.
Lots of hiring in low paying jobs at the expense of higher paying jobs
is generally bad, though perhaps not unsurprising in a recovery.
Median Duration of Unemployment
Weeks
510152025
median: 8.60
Dec 2014: 12.60
(U6) Unemployed + PT + Marginally Attached
Percent
810121416
median: 9.70
Dec 2014: 11.20
4−week moving average of Initial Claims
Jan1995=100
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
50100150200
median: 107.99
Jan 2015: 89.32
Unemployed over 27 weeks
MillionsofPersons
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
01234567
median: 0.78
Dec 2014: 2.69
Services: Temp Help
MillionsofPersons
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1.52.02.53.0
median: 2.24
Dec 2014: 2.99
0 200 400 600
15
20
25
30
35
Annual Change in Employment Levels (000s of Workers)
Averagewages($/hour)
Private Industry Employment Change (1 year)
Construction
Durable Goods
Education
Financial Activities
Health Services
Information
Leisure and Hospitality
Manufacturing
Mining and Logging
Nondurable Goods
Other Services
Professional &
Business Services
Retail Trade
Transportation
Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Circle size relative to total employees in industry
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 14

15. US Business Activity Indicators
Business activity is split between manufacturing activity and non-
manufacturing activity. We are focusing on forward looking business
indicators like new order and inventory levels to give a sense of the
current business environment.
Manufacturing Sector: Real Output
YoYPercentChange
−1001020
median: 6.14
2014 Q3: 10.50
ISM Manufacturing − PMI
Index
3040506070
Dec 2014: 55.50
manufac. expanding
manufac. contracting
ISM Manufacturing: New Orders Index
Index
304050607080
Dec 2014: 57.30
Increase in new orders
Decrease in new orders
Non−Manufac. New Orders: Capital Goods
BillionsofDollars
40506070
median: 57.53
Nov 2014: 70.63
Average Weekly Hours: Manufacturing
Hours
3940414243
median: 41.10
Dec 2014: 42.20
Industrial Production: Manufacturing
YoYPercentChange
−15−50510
median: 3.32
Nov 2014: 5.09
Total Business: Inventories to Sales Ratio
Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1.11.21.31.41.51.6
median: 1.37
Oct 2014: 1.30
Chicago Fed: Sales, Orders & Inventory
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−0.50.00.5
Nov 2014: 0.02
Above ave growth
Below ave growth
ISM Non−Manufacturing Bus. Activity Index
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
35455565
Dec 2014: 57.20
Growth
Contraction
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 15

16. US Consumption Indicators
Variations in consumer activity are a leading indicator of the
strength of the economy. We track consumer sentiment (their expec-
tations about the future), consumer loan activity (indicator of new
purchase activity), and new orders and sales of consumer goods.
U. Michigan: Consumer Sentiment
Index1966Q1=100
5060708090110
median: 88.30
Dec 2014: 93.60
Consumer Loans (All banks)
YoY%Change
−10010203040
median: 7.76
Dec 2014: 5.02
Accounting
Change
Deliquency Rate on Consumer Loans
Percent
2.53.03.54.04.5
median: 3.47
2014 Q3: 2.21
New Orders: Durable Consumer Goods
YoY%Change
−20020
median: 4.59
Nov 2014: −4.54
New Orders: Non−durable Consumer Goods
YoY%Change
−2001020
median: 4.25
Nov 2014: −3.41
Personal Consumption & Housing Index
Index
−0.40.00.20.4
median: 0.02
Nov 2014: −0.10above ave growth
below ave growth
Light Cars and Trucks Sales
MillionsofUnits
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
10121416182022
median: 14.78
Nov 2014: 17.09
Personal Saving Rate
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
246810
median: 5.60
Nov 2014: 4.40
Real Retail and Food Services Sales
YoY%Change
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−10−505
median: 2.54
Nov 2014: 3.80
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 16

17. US Housing
Housing construction is only about 5-8% of the US economy, how-
ever a house is typically the largest asset owned by a household. Since
personal consumption is about 70% of the US economy and house val-
ues directly impact household wealth, housing is an important indicator
in the health of the overall economy. In particular, housing investment
was an important driver of the economy getting out of the last few
recessions (though not this one so far). Here we track housing prices
and especially indicators which show the current state of the housing
market.
15 20 25 30 35
150200250300
Personal Income vs. Housing Prices (Inflation adjusted values)
NewHomePrice(000's)
Disposable Income Per Capita (000's)
Nov 2014
r2
: 89.2%
Range: Jan 1959 − Nov 2014
Blue dots > +5% change in next year
Red dots < −5% change in next year
New Housing Units Permits Authorized
MillionsofUnits
0.51.01.52.02.5
median: 1.36
Nov 2014: 1.05
New Home Median Sale Price
SalePrice$000's
100150200250
Nov 2014: 280.90
Homeowner's Equity Level
Percent
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
4050607080
median: 66.50
2014 Q3: 53.94
New Homes: Median Months on the Market
Months
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
468101214
median: 5.00
Nov 2014: 3.00
US Monthly Supply of Homes
MonthsSupply
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
4681012
median: 5.90
Nov 2014: 5.80
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 17

18. US Housing - FHFA Quarterly Index
The Federal Housing Finance Agency provides a quarterly survey
on house prices, based on sales prices and appraisal data. This gener-
ates a housing index for 355 municipal areas in the US from 1979 to
present. We have provided an alternative view of this data looking at
the change in prices from the peak in the 2007 time frame.
The goal is to provide a sense of where the housing markets are
weak versus strong.The colours represent gain or losses since the start
of the housing crisis (defined as the maximum price between 2007-2009
for each city). The circled dots are the cities in the survey, while the
background colours are interpolated from these points using a loess
smoother.
Change from 2007 Peak − Q3 2014
−50%
−40%
−30%
−20%
−10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Today's Home Prices
Percentage Change from 2007−2009 Peak
Frequency
−75% −50% −25% 0% 25% 50% 75%
Year over Year Change − Q3 2014
−10%
−8%
−6%
−4%
−2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
YoY Change in this quarter
YoY Percent Change
Frequency
−15% −10% −5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 18

19. Global Business Indicators
Global Manufacturing PMI Reports
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator reflecting
purchasing managers’ acquisition of goods and services. An index read-
ing of 50.0 means that business conditions are unchanged, a number
over 50.0 indicates an improvement while anything below 50.0 suggests
a decline. The further away from 50.0 the index is, the stronger the
change over the month. The chart at the bottom shows a moving av-
erage of a number of PMI’s, along with standard deviation bands to
show a global average.
Global M−PMI − December 2014
<40.0 42.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0 >60.0
Steady ExpandingContracting
Eurozone
50.6
Global PMI
51.6
TWN
50.0MEX
55.3
KOR
49.9
JPN
52.0
VNM
52.7
IDN
47.6
ZAF
50.2
AUS
46.9
BRA
50.2
CAN
53.9
CHN
49.6
IND
54.5
RUS
48.9
SAU
57.9
USA
53.9
Global M−PMI Monthly Change
<−5.0 −4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0
PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating
Eurozone
0.5
Global PMI
−0.2
TWN
−1.4MEX
1.0
KOR
0.9
JPN
0.0
VNM
0.6
IDN
−0.4
ZAF
−0.3
AUS
−3.2
BRA
1.5
CAN
−1.4
CHN
−0.4
IND
1.2
RUS
−2.8
SAU
0.3
USA
−0.9
Purchase Managers Index (Manufacturing) − China, Japan, USA, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, UK, Australia
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
3040506070
3040506070
Business Conditions Contracting
Business Conditions Expanding
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 19

20. Global Manufacturing PMI Chart
This is an alternate view of the global PMI reports. Here, we look
at all the various PMI data series in a single chart and watch their
evolution over time.
Red numbers indicate contraction (as estimated by PMI) while
green numbers indicate expansion.
Dec12
Jan13
Feb13
Mar13
Apr13
May13
Jun13
Jul13
Aug13
Sep13
Oct13
Nov13
Dec13
Jan14
Feb14
Mar14
Apr14
May14
Jun14
Jul14
Aug14
Sep14
Oct14
Nov14
Dec14
Australia
India
Indonesia
Viet Nam
Taiwan
China
Korea
Japan
South Africa
Saudi Arabia
Turkey
Russia
United Kingdom
Greece
Germany
France
Italy
Czech Republic
Spain
Poland
Ireland
Netherlands
Eurozone
Brazil
Mexico
Canada
United States
Global PMI 50.0 51.5 50.9 51.2 50.4 50.6 50.6 50.8 51.6 51.8 52.1 53.1 53.3 53.0 53.2 52.4 51.9 52.2 52.6 52.4 52.6 52.2 52.2 51.8 51.6
56.1 55.8 54.3 54.6 52.1 52.3 52.0 53.7 53.1 52.8 51.8 54.7 55.0 53.7 57.1 55.5 55.4 56.4 57.3 55.8 57.9 57.5 55.9 54.8 53.9
50.4 50.5 51.7 49.3 50.1 53.2 52.4 52.0 52.1 54.2 55.6 55.3 53.5 51.7 52.9 53.3 52.9 52.2 53.5 54.3 54.8 53.5 55.3 55.3 53.9
57.1 55.0 53.4 52.2 51.7 51.7 51.3 49.7 50.8 50.0 50.2 51.9 52.6 54.0 52.0 51.7 51.8 51.9 51.8 51.5 52.1 52.6 53.3 54.3 55.3
51.1 53.2 52.5 51.8 50.8 50.4 50.4 48.5 49.4 49.9 50.2 49.7 50.5 50.8 50.4 50.6 49.3 48.8 48.7 49.1 50.2 49.3 49.1 48.7 50.2
46.1 47.9 47.9 46.8 46.7 48.3 48.8 50.3 51.4 51.1 51.3 51.6 52.7 54.0 53.2 53.0 53.4 52.2 51.8 51.8 50.7 50.3 50.6 50.1 50.6
49.6 50.2 49.0 48.0 48.2 48.7 48.8 50.8 53.5 55.8 54.4 56.8 57.0 54.8 55.2 53.7 53.4 53.6 52.3 53.5 51.7 52.2 53.0 54.6 53.6
51.4 50.3 51.5 48.6 48.0 49.7 50.3 51.0 52.0 52.7 54.9 52.4 53.5 52.8 52.9 55.5 56.1 55.0 55.3 55.4 57.3 55.7 56.6 56.2 56.9
48.5 48.6 48.9 48.0 46.9 48.0 49.3 51.1 52.6 53.1 53.4 54.4 53.2 55.4 55.9 54.0 52.0 50.8 50.3 49.4 49.0 49.5 51.2 53.2 52.8
44.6 46.1 46.8 44.2 44.7 48.1 50.0 49.8 51.1 50.7 50.9 48.6 50.8 52.2 52.5 52.8 52.7 52.9 54.6 53.9 52.8 52.6 52.6 54.7 53.8
46.0 48.3 49.9 49.1 49.5 50.1 51.0 52.0 53.9 53.4 54.5 55.4 54.7 55.9 56.5 55.5 56.5 57.3 54.7 56.5 54.3 55.6 54.4 55.6 53.3
46.7 47.8 45.8 44.5 45.5 47.3 49.1 50.4 51.3 50.8 50.7 51.4 53.3 53.1 52.3 52.4 54.0 53.2 52.6 51.9 49.8 50.7 49.0 49.0 48.4
44.6 42.9 43.9 44.0 44.4 46.4 48.4 49.7 49.7 49.8 49.1 48.4 47.0 49.3 49.7 52.1 51.2 49.6 48.2 47.8 46.9 48.8 48.5 48.4 47.5
46.0 49.8 50.3 49.0 48.1 49.4 48.6 50.7 51.8 51.1 51.7 52.7 54.3 56.5 54.8 53.7 54.1 52.3 52.0 52.4 51.4 49.9 51.4 49.5 51.2
41.4 41.7 43.0 42.1 45.0 45.3 45.4 47.0 48.7 47.5 47.3 49.2 49.6 51.2 51.3 49.7 51.1 51.0 49.4 48.7 50.1 48.4 48.8 49.1 49.4
51.2 50.5 47.9 48.6 50.2 51.3 52.9 54.8 57.2 56.3 56.5 58.4 57.3 56.7 56.2 55.3 57.3 57.0 57.5 55.4 52.5 51.6 53.2 53.5 52.5
50.0 52.0 52.0 50.8 50.6 50.4 51.7 49.2 49.4 49.4 51.8 49.4 48.8 48.0 48.5 48.3 48.5 48.9 49.1 51.0 51.0 50.4 50.3 51.7 48.9
53.1 54.0 53.5 52.3 51.3 51.1 51.2 49.8 50.9 54.0 53.3 55.0 53.5 52.7 53.4 51.7 51.1 50.1 48.8 48.5 50.3 50.4 51.5 52.2 51.4
58.9 58.1 58.5 58.9 58.0 57.3 56.6 56.6 57.5 58.7 56.7 57.1 58.7 59.7 58.6 57.0 58.5 57.0 59.2 60.1 60.7 61.8 59.1 57.6 57.9
47.4 49.1 53.6 49.3 50.5 50.4 51.6 52.2 56.5 49.1 51.5 51.6 50.5 50.3 51.5 50.3 47.4 44.3 46.6 45.9 49.0 50.7 52.7 50.5 50.2
45.0 47.7 48.5 50.4 51.1 51.5 52.3 50.7 52.2 52.5 54.2 55.1 55.2 56.6 55.5 53.9 49.4 49.9 51.5 50.5 52.5 51.7 52.4 52.0 52.0
50.1 49.9 50.9 52.0 52.6 51.1 49.4 47.2 47.5 49.7 50.2 50.4 50.8 50.9 49.8 50.4 50.2 49.5 48.4 49.3 50.3 48.8 48.7 49.0 49.9
51.5 50.4 50.4 51.6 50.4 49.2 48.2 47.7 50.1 50.2 50.9 50.8 50.5 49.5 48.5 48.0 48.1 49.4 50.7 51.7 50.2 50.2 50.4 50.0 49.6
50.6 51.5 50.2 51.2 50.7 47.1 49.5 48.6 50.0 52.0 53.0 53.4 55.2 55.5 54.7 52.7 52.3 52.4 54.0 55.8 56.1 53.3 52.0 51.4 50.0
49.3 50.1 48.3 50.8 51.0 48.8 46.4 48.5 49.4 51.5 51.5 50.3 51.8 52.1 51.0 51.3 53.1 52.5 52.3 51.7 50.3 51.7 51.0 52.1 52.7
50.7 49.7 50.5 51.3 51.7 51.6 51.0 50.7 48.5 50.2 50.9 50.3 50.9 51.0 50.5 50.1 51.1 52.4 52.7 52.7 49.5 50.7 49.2 48.0 47.6
54.7 53.2 54.2 52.0 51.0 50.1 50.3 50.1 48.5 49.6 49.6 51.3 50.7 51.4 52.5 51.3 51.3 51.4 51.5 53.0 52.4 51.0 51.6 53.3 54.5
44.3 40.2 45.6 44.4 36.7 43.8 49.6 42.0 46.4 51.7 53.2 47.7 47.6 46.7 48.6 47.9 44.8 49.2 48.9 50.7 47.3 46.5 49.4 50.1 46.9
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21. OECD International Trade Data
The OECD calculates import and export values for member coun-
tries. Figures are seasonally adjusted and measured in billions of US
dollars. Red lines indicate exports, while blue lines indicate imports.
Green lines indicate the zero level.
The top part of the graph shows the changes in exports and imports
on a year-over-year basis, while the bottom part shows the difference
between exports and imports for that given month (i.e. the trade bal-
ance)
China
YoYChange
−40
−20
0
20
40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10
0
10
20
30
40
US
YoYChange
−60
−40
−20
0
20
40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−80
−60
−40
−20
0
Canada
YoYChange
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−2
0
2
4
6
Germany
YoYChange
−40
−20
0
20
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
JapanYoYChange
−30
−20
−10
0
10
20
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
South Korea
YoYChange
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
India
YoYChange
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−15
−10
−5
0
Australia
YoYChange
−6
−4
−2
0
2
4
6
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
4
Eurozone
YoYChange
−80
−60
−40
−20
0
20
40
Balance
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
−10
0
10
20
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22. Canadian Indicators
Retail Trade (SA)
YoYPercentChange
−50510
median: 4.76
Oct 2014: 4.85
Total Manufacturing Sales Growth
YoYPercentGrowth
−2001020
median: 4.23
Oct 2014: 5.71
Manufacturing New Orders Growth
YoYPercentGrowth
−30−100102030
median: 4.65
Oct 2014: 6.67
10yr Government Bond Yields
0246810
median: 5.77
Dec 2014: 1.79
Manufacturing PMI
505152535455
Dec 2014: 53.90
Sales and New Orders (SA)
YoYPercentChange
−2001020
Sales
New Orders (smoothed)
Tbill Yield Spread (10 yr − 3mo)
Spread(Percent)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−101234
median: 1.34
Dec 2014: 0.88
Inflation (total and core)
YoYPercentChange
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−101234
median: 1.97
Nov 2014: 1.95
Total
Core
Inventory to Sales Ratio (SA)
Ratio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1.31.41.51.6
median: 1.35
Oct 2014: 1.35
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 22

23. 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6
1.31.41.51.61.71.81.9
Beveridge Curve (Mar 2011 − Sep 2014)
Unemployment Rate
Vacancyrate(Industrial)
Mar 2011 − Dec 2012
Jan 2013 − Aug 2014
Sep 2014
Ownership/Rental Price Ratio
RatioofAccomodationOwnership/RentRatio
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
90100110120130140150
Calgary
Montreal
Vancouver
Toronto
Note: Using prices relative to 2002 as base year
Ownership relatively more
expensive vs 2002
Rent relatively more expensive vs 2002
Unemployment Rate (SA)
Percent
345678910
Canada 6.6%
Alberta 4.5%
Ontario 7.0%
Debt Service Ratios (SA)
Percent
46810
Total Debt: 6.9%
Mortgage: 3.5%
Consumer Debt: 6.5%
Housing Starts and Building Permits (smoothed)
YoYPercentChange
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−40−2002040
Permits
Starts
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 23

24. European Indicators
Unemployment Rates
Percentage
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
051015202530
Business Employment Expectations
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−40−20010
Industrial Orderbook Levels
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−60−40−20020
Country Employment
Expect.
Unempl.
(%)
Bond Yields
(%)
Retail
Turnover
Manufacturing
Turnover
Inflation
(YoY %)
Industry
Orderbook
PMI
Series Dates Dec 2014 Nov 2014 Nov 2014 Nov 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Dec 2014
France -10.2 I 10.3 I 1.14 J 104.3 I 108.0 J 0.4 J -18.4 I 47.5 J
Germany -2.7 I 5.0 K 0.72 J NA 113.5 I 0.5 J -9.4 J 51.2 I
United Kingdom 10.7 I 5.9 K 1.72 J 113.1 I NA 1.3 I 5.0 J 52.5 J
Italy -7.2 I 13.4 I 2.29 J NA NA 0.3 I -22.0 I 48.4 J
Greece 2.9 J 25.8 J 8.10 I NA NA -1.2 I -15.5 J 49.4 I
Spain -4.5 J 23.9 J 2.07 J NA NA -0.5 J -13.7 J 53.8 J
Eurozone (EU28) -1.8 I 10.0 J 1.69 J 104.8 I 109.0 I 0.5 I -13.0 J NA
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25. Government Bond YieldsLongTermYields%
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0246810
Economic Sentiment
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
60708090110130
Consumer Confidence
Index
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−100−60−20020
Inflation (Harmonized Prices)
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
median: 2.00
Oct 2014: 0.40−1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Euro Area
US
Harmonized Inflation: Oct 2014
AUT
1.4%
BGR
−1.9%
DEU
0.5%
ESP
−0.5%
FIN
1.1%
FRA
0.4%
GBR
1.3%
GRC
−1.2%
HUN
0.1%
IRL
0.2%
ISL
−0.6%
ITA
0.3%
NOR
2.0%
POL
−0.3%
ROU
1.5%
SWE
0.3%
<−1.0%0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% >7.0%
YoY % Change in Prices
PMI: December 2014
<40.042.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 50.0 52.0 54.0 56.0 58.0>60.0
Steady ExpandingContracting
BRA
50.2
CAN
53.9
DEU
51.2
ESP
53.8
FRA
47.5
GBR
52.5
GRC
49.4
IRL
56.9
ITA
48.4
MEX
55.3
POL
52.8
SAU
57.9
TUR
51.4
USA
53.9
RUS
48.9
PMI Change: Nov − Dec
<−5.0−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 >5.0
PMI Change ImprovingDeteriorating
CAN
−1.4
DEU
1.7
ESP
−0.9
FRA
−0.9
GBR
−1.0
GRC
0.3
IRL
0.7
ITA
−0.6
POL
−0.4
TUR
−0.8
USA
−0.9
RUS
−2.8
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26. Chinese Indicators
Tracking the Chinese economy is a tricky. As reported in the Fi-
nancial Times, Premier Li Keqiang confided to US officials in 2007 that
gross domestic product was “man made” and “for reference only”. In-
stead, he suggested that it was much more useful to focus on three alter-
native indicators: electricity consumption, rail cargo volumes and bank
lending (still tracking down that last one). We also include the PMI
- which is an official version put out by the Chinese government and
differs slightly from an HSBC version. Finally we include the Shanghai
Composite Index as a measure of stock performance.
Manufacturing PMI
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
4045505560
Dec 2014: 49.60
Shanghai Composite Index
IndexValue(MonthlyHigh/Low)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
0100030005000
Jan 2015: 3351.45
Electricity Generated
100MillionKWH(logscale)
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
1000200030005000
Nov 2014: 4487.00
Electricity Generated
Long Term Trend
Short Term Average
Consumer Confidence Index
Index
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
98100102104106108
median: 103.40
Nov 2014: 105.50
Exports
YoYPercentChange
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
−20020406080
median: 18.70
Nov 2014: 4.70
Retail Sales Growth
YoYPercentChange
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
101520
median: 13.10
Nov 2014: 11.70
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27. Global Climate Change
Temperature and precipitation data are taken from the US National
Climatic Data Center and presented as the average monthly anomaly
from the previous 6 months. Anomalies are defined as the difference
from the average value over the period from 1961-1990 for precipitation
and 1971-2000 for temperature.
Average Temperature Anomalies from Jun 2014 - Nov 2014
<−4.0 −3.0 −2.0 −1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 >4.0
Anomalies in Celcius WarmerCooler Anomalies in Celcius
−4 −2 0 2 4
Average 6 month Precipitation Anomalies from Jun 2014 - Nov 2014
<−40.0 −30.0 −20.0 −10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 >40.0
Anomalies in millimeters WetterDrier Anomalies in millimeters
−40 −20 0 20 40
www.lairdresearch.com January 11, 2015 Page 27