This weekly newsletter discusses commodity market trends and provides trading signals. It summarizes that commodities prices continue to weaken due to slowing global growth, especially in China, which is hurting demand. Commodity prices often decline before recessions, so the markets may be signaling an increased recession risk. Short positions are recommended for crude oil, gasoline, diesel and natural gas based on supply/demand fundamentals and technical factors like prices breaching psychological barriers. The dollar's strength is also cited as a bearish influence for commodity prices.

1. See important disclosures on last page 1 www.eqstrading.com
SIGNALS
Commodities weakness con-
tinues and despite “Good” Q2
earnings equities having a
hard week. With commodities
getting beat down, are the
equity markets and the econ-
omy knocking on recession’s
door?
We have been “beating the
dead horse,” but China stays
front and center as their PMI
contracted for the second
month in a row. With the
Communist Party pulling every
trick in the book to keep their
equity market propped up and
prevent old fashioned political
unrest, they may have forgot-
ten the importance of keeping
their manufacturing numbers
over inflated. With China the
largest consumer of, well,
about everything, the Govern-
ment may have been too distract-
ed with propping up the equity
market to keep Chinese factories
pumping out goods, and thus
making the world think that every-
thing is hunky-dory.
It is simple economics: If the
manufacturing industry in the
world’s largest economy is using
fewer inputs, (Continued on Page
ARE COMMODITIES POINTING TO A
GLOBAL RECESSION?
Some Good Runs This
Week!
-Oil and the Products are up a
strong 7.66 % since our short
call 10 trade days ago
-Shorting Gasoline has paid off
10.29% since the short call on
7-13-15!
**You can achieve these results
with discipline and by following
the EQS daily trade recommen-
dations and using the daily
EQS Stop Loss guidance
I N S I D E T H I S I S S U E :
Recession Continued 2
Natural Gas 3
Oil and Products 4
Terms and Disclosures 5
EQS TR A D E RE C O M M E N DA T I O N S
THE SOUR C E
F OR C OM M OD ITY
TR AD ING SIGN ALS
Volume 1, Issue 5 July 27, 2015
A Weekly Publication on the Commodity Markets
TM
ENERGY TRADE SIGNALS FOR TRADING DAY 7/27/2015
Commodity Symbol Position Entry Date Entry Price Stoploss
Current Position
Profit (Loss)
Rolling 1-Year
Annual Return
Rolling 5-Year
Annual Return
Rolling 10-Year
Annual Return
Average
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Max Draw
Down
Win/Loss
Ratio
WTI Crude Oil CLU15 Short 7/13/2015 52.78$ 1.60% 8.62% 38.96% 34.06% 33.03% 18.1% 2.30 -30.13% 1.30
Brent Crude Oil EBU15 Short 7/13/2015 58.61$ 1.70% 5.29% 61.88% 35.51% 44.70% 43.5% 1.30 -30.44% 1.30
Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel HOU15 Short 7/13/2015 1.7360$ 1.60% 6.43% 43.86% 24.92% 35.52% 31.4% 1.28 -51.05% 1.14
Gasoline RBU15 Short 7/13/2015 2.0451$ 1.40% 10.29% 48.03% 33.62% 62.27% 76.4% 1.20 -25.09% 1.21
Natural Gas NGU15 Short 7/17/2014 4.119$ 1.05% 40.39% 37.41% 78.14% 107.66% 116.7% 1.59 -30.87% 1.15
Light brown refers to current position and dark brown refers to back-tested results averaged up to a 10-year period. No leverage utilized on these results.

2. See important disclosures on last page 2 www.eqstrading.com
(Continued from page 1)
commodities prices fall…and guess what we have been seeing?
For all of those that are equity traders, the good Q2 and job numbers should have had the bulls
running last week, however we no longer live in the four walls of America and fear is starting to
set in as a Fed Rate hike could be around the corner. We will be watching the Fed closely, as
with Canada falling in a recession and China, the rest of Asia and Europe on the brink of follow-
ing suit.
Commodities tend to be a leading indicator, falling prior to recession. Commodities have had a
hard run, falling across the board in the last year. Commodities are a direct reflection of the
global economy, and as prices continue to fall, there is no surprise that the world economy is
starting to cool and we may be nearing the end of the business cycle.
Over here in the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave, Wall Street had a bumpy ride last
week despite good Q2 earnings for most firms. Wall Street is finally starting to wake up to what
those of us that follow the commodities market have been seeing, and despite strong Q2 num-
bers, the future picture is changing.
The American economy has been the bright spot of earnings reports from Q2. For firms that
have little exposure to China and the Global Economy we saw some good earnings as the Ameri-
can economy is enjoying cheap oil. The jobs data came in strong this week, as the Department
of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment fell to 255,000—the lowest number since
November 24, 1973!
The all-powerful and mighty Apple took a haircut last week, despite making a Q2 profit of $10.6
Billion. They lowered their outlook and the company lost $60 billion of value overnight! To top it
off Amazon reported a profit for the first time ever and gained $45 Billion of value overnight,
which was 96 times their total profits, which meant they surpassed the market cap of Wal-Mart.
To say the equity markets are behaving irrationally is an understatement; that is why you need
to learn and harness the power of the commodity markets.
With the global landscape a Fed Rate hike at this late stage of the economic cycle is
extremely risky; however Ms. Yellen may have no choice to but raise rates as being
caught in a recession with an interest rate near zero could be disastrous. We will
closely be monitoring the Q2 GDP data and paying close attention to the Fed as a Sep-
tember rate hike could quickly derail the American economy .
RECESSION….(CONT.)
Being caught in a
recession with an interest
rate near zero could be
disastrous.

3. See important disclosures on last page 3 www.eqstrading.com
The bulls were ready to run going into the stor-
age report, however a build of 61 billion cubic
feet killed the rally and prices again fell for the
week. Even with hotter temperatures over most
of the continental US, demand is just not there
to offset production.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.828
trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were
622 billion cubic feet higher than last year at
this time and 81 billion cubic feet above the five
-year average of 2.747 trillion cubic feet for this
time of year.
Updated weather forecasting models continued
to call for higher-than-normal temperatures
across most parts of the U.S. in the first half of
the week, before a shift to cooler weather push-
es readings to near normal across much of
Northeast and Midwest late in the week.
For now, Natural Gas has failed the $2.90 line
and looks like the Bulls are going to have to stay
penned up just a bit longer.
Remember, key catalysts for the bulls remain;
improved natural gas demand outlook due to
coal power pant retirements, production finally
slowing (more meaningful since both oil and
natural gas rig counts have declined), and a
break of key resistance in place since last year
(currently around $2.95/mmbtu).
Natural Gas: just waiting for the bulls to run
Bearish
Natural Gas

4. See important disclosures on last page 4 www.eqstrading.com
Fifty…what a round magic number. Crude
dove back below $50 a barrel to almost a 4
month low, breaking this important psychologi-
cal barrier. The Bulls and Bears put up a good
fight over that magic fifty number, but in the
end the bears clawed their way to victory once
again.
The dollar strength and oversupply concerns
still are the major factors that are driving oil
and the products lower. EIA crude inventories
rose 2.47 million barrels, and EIA distillate
supplies rose 235,000 barrels to over a 3 year
high. Further exacerbating the downward
spiral is a concern of China slowing (see cover-
story) and the implications of lower oil de-
mand.
The rally that began in mid-March was driven
by the perception that the global rebalancing
of the oil market was underway and was going
to accelerate. Since the rally peaked in June
the market has come to the reality that even
with an over 60 percent cut in rigs deployed to
the US oil sector, production has not yet de-
clined. In the meantime, OPEC production has
been soaring with no sign of abatement any-
time soon as Saudi Arabia is soaring at record
high producing levels. Demand has increased
but supply continues to outpace demand and
there is just not the buying power to hold pric-
es above $50 until we see some major chang-
es on either the Supply or Demand side.
No doubt, sub $50 oil has brought out hedge
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SUB-$50 OIL
Bearish
Oil & Products
buyers again as that psychological mindset
of oil with a “4 handle” just seems too
good to pass up as we see at every $10
price point increment.
We continue to watch the debate from the
Iran nuclear talks as the next hurdle is
actually getting everyone to approve and
ratify the terms that have been hammered
out. The deal still remains very important
for stability in the region and there are still
questions as to if the region is more or less
stable with a deal. The fact remains there
is lots of oil under all that sand. Anything
that caused more or less oil to come out of
that sand will tell the story if we are more
likely to see a 3 or a 7 handle on oil.

5. See important disclosures on last page 5 www.eqstrading.com
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THE SOUR C E
F OR C OM M OD ITY
TR AD ING SIGN ALS
TERMS and DISCLOSURES