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Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
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NewBase 02 November 2014 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Qatargas wins Arabia Corporate Social Resposibility award
The Peninsula
Qatargas has bagged the first prize in the ‘Large Size Enterprise’ category across the Mena
region at the coveted Arabia Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Award, according to a press
statement issued yesterday.
The Arabia CSR Award is the most prestigious CSR and sustainability related recognition in the
region, honouring and showcasing organisations in the Middle East, Levant and North Africa
region that demonstrate a clear strategy and effective implementation of CSR.
The award was presented at the 7th cycle of the Arabia CSR Forum at a ceremony held recently
in Dubai. Mansour Rashid Al Naimi, Qatargas Public Relations Manager received the award on
behalf of the company.
Khalid bin Khalifa Al Thani, Qatargas
CEO, said: “We are delighted to win this
prestigious award, which is a testament
to Qatargas’ robust CSR programme
focused on long-term, sustainable
initiatives. As a leader in the global
energy industry, Qatargas has made
significant contributions to a sustainable
future for our country and the world at
large. Over the past few years, we have
made huge financial investments in
reducing our carbon footprint, improving
air quality, reducing and recycling waste,
judicious use of water and, above all,
community development at different
levels.”
Ghanim Al Kuwari, COO (Administration), Qatargas, added: “This award is the result of our
continued commitment to a cohesive, dynamic CSR programme that inspires our employees, as
much as it benefits the community. We work in an engaged and collaborative manner with our
stakeholders taking great care to thoroughly assess the social and environmental value of our
initiatives and the potential to add value to the objectives of the Qatar National Vision 2030.”
Awards were presented in six different categories. The ‘Large Sized Enterprises’ category
comprises organisations with more than 500 employees. A jury panel consisting of multinational
experts in the field of CSR and sustainability selected the winners from a total of 155 applications
representing 25 industries from 12 countries in the region.
Qatargas’ CSR initiatives are spread over five broad areas covering education, environment,
health and safety, community development and sports.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
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Egypt signs $350m oil, power financing deals with Saudi Arabia
ARABIAN BUSINESS + NEWBASE
Egypt signed $350 million worth of financing agreements with Saudi Arabia on Saturday aimed at
upgrading its power grid and securing imports of petroleum products as it seeks to end its worst
energy crisis in decades.
Power cuts have become common in Egypt as the cash-strapped government struggles to supply
enough gas to its power stations let alone upgrade a grid suffering from decades of neglect. The
energy crunch has become a political hot potato in the Arab world's most populous country, which
has turned from a gas exporter into a net importer in recent years as it diverts gas once destined
for export to meet burgeoning domestic demand.
Lines at petrol stations and a shortage of gas were among the main public grievances against
former President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood. But oil-producing Gulf allies have
come to Egypt's aid since the army, prompted by mass protests, ousted Mursi last year.
Two loan agreements signed on Saturday worth a total of about $100 million will be invested in
two electricity stations that are expected to boost the capacity of the national grid. A further $250
million in assistance will come in the form of petroleum products.
Saudi Arabia sent Egypt $3 billion worth of refined oil products between April and September of
this year, according to an Egyptian oil official, while the total value of Saudi oil aid since July 2013
amounted to about $5 billion.
Egypt has also turned to the United Arab Emirates for oil products, signing deal in September that
commits it to purchasing about 65 percent of its needs from its Gulf ally in the next year.
Egypt introduced deep cuts to energy subsidies in July, which have resulted in price rises of more
than 70 percent, as it seeks to curb public spending and fuel waste.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 3
British gas prices fall to 52 pence per therm on Russia deal
Reuters + NewBase
British wholesale gas prices for the rest of this year fell yesterday after Ukraine and Russia signed
a deal that will see Moscow resume gas supplies to Kiev this winter, while warm UK weather and
high storage levels added to the bearish tone.
Russia is Europe’s biggest supplier of gas and provides around a third of the continent’s needs,
pumping roughly half of that via Ukraine. Some of this reaches Britain from continental European
storage sites.
Failure to reach an agreement would have raised fears of disruptions to European gas supply via
Ukraine this winter, but prices of wholesale natural gas had already been declining on Thursday
afternoon in anticipation of a deal.
The UK gas contract for delivery in November was trading at 52.20 pence per therm at 0915 GMT
on Friday, down 1.5 percent from the previous settlement. It earlier touched 52.00 pence, its
lowest since the contract began trading.
The December contract was at 54.60 pence per therm, down 1.7 percent, having touched its
lowest ever level of 54.40 pence in earlier trade. However, traders said the falls were not that
substantial.
“Everyone was expecting this (deal) to happen so it’s not going to have a massive impact on
prices, although the near months have come off a bit,” one gas trader said. “There are no real
bullish indicators out there. The long-term forecast for November and December is warm; storage
is very high right across the continent,” he added.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 4
India: Oilex announces significant progress in achieving proof of
concept objectives for Cambay-77H Source: Oilex + NewBase
Oilex has announced significant progress in achieving the proof of concept objectives
for Cambay-77H. These objectives are critical to demonstrating the Cambay Field can be
commercially developed using multi-stage fracture treatments (fracs) in horizontal wells.
Cambay-77H has a very short lateral section of 350m with 8 fracs that were successfully
completed in 4 stages.
The key objectives achieved include:
• Efficient drilling operations that demonstrated repeatability by successfully intersecting the
Y zone at the predicted depth, while steering around other existing wells
o Well logs confirm the Y zone is hydrocarbon bearing
o Provides confidence that the Y zone reservoir properties are laterally consistent,
and any variability is within expectation
• Successfully perforated, isolated and treated 8 fractures in 4 stages
• All fracs interpreted to extend ~ 60m into the reservoir from the well bore which is
interpreted to be sufficient for commercial production in longer laterals
• "Plug and Perf" completion method is achievable and repeatable in India
• Flowback activities, including recovery of Operations water from this type of well can be
successfully executed in the Cambay Field
Other key outcomes that influence the future commercialisation of Cambay Field are:
• The hydrocarbon liquid to gas ratio (LGR) during flowback has been ~100 bbls of liquids
per MMscfd of gas. This ratio is 250% higher than expected which if sustained, leads to a
much higher unit revenue stream in barrels of oil equivalent (Boe).
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• Oil and gas recovery started on the first day of flowback and gas sales during flowback
operations in future wells is possible as the gas market is readily available. This leads to
early cash flow and faster payback of well costs.
• Well modelling calibrated to flowback production over ~ 85 days indicates that frac
spacing in future wells with longer laterals can be increased. Fewer fracs per unit length
can lead to significant cost savings.
• Cambay-77H sustained production rate of 0.5 - 1.0MMscfd has been predicted using the
well model calibrated to flowback production and is up to 185% greater than Cambay-73,
which has a single frac in a vertical well. Cambay-73 was flowing 0.35MMscfd when shut
in during June 2012 and will be returned to production subsequent to the installation and
commissioning of facilities.
• The recovery of Operations water is >79% and therefore at the high end of expectation
and North American experience. No formation water has been recovered to date which
continues to confirm the thesis that no direct oil water contact (OWC) is accessible within
the Y zone.
• As Cambay-77H is on "self-flow" with no artificial lift, a significant proportion of reservoir
energy within the drainage area of the well has been used to recover large volumes of
Operations water. This means less reservoir energy is available to produce oil and gas
during the flowback period.
• Future wells with longer laterals and wider fracture spacing will have larger drainage areas
and access more reservoir energy. Proportionately less energy should be needed to
recover Operations water, resulting in higher gas and oil production rates.
The Cambay JV's
progress at the
Cambay Field
compares favourably
to other experiences in
which a single operator
is applying
unconventional multi-
stage fracture
treatments in a new
basin or field. Range
Resources Corporation
successfully applied
Barnett Shale style
fractures to the Marcellus Field from 2004 to 2008, which is now one of the largest producing gas
fields in the world. The enclosed charts compare Cambay horizontal wells to the initial Marcellus
well results for Range Resources.
For charts, please click on, or paste the following link in to your web browser, to view the PDF
file: http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7801V_-2014-10-31.pdf
Range Resources 'cracked the code' in the Marcellus with Well #4 when it achieved a flow rate of
3.2 MMscf/d. Oilex continues to draw on the experience of others to shorten the learning curve
for Cambay Field development.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 6
Congo (Brazzaville): Eni reports new significant oil discovery offshore
Source: Eni + NewBase
Eni has made a new important oil discovery in the Minsala Marine exploration prospect located
in the Marine XII Block offshore Congo at 35 kms from the shoreline and 12 kms from the
recentNené Marine discovery. The discovery was made through the Minsala Marine 1 well which
was drilled in 75 metres of water depth and reached a total depth of 3,700 metres.
The well encountered a significant accumulation of light oil in the Lower Cretaceous age pre-salt
sequence, passing through a hydrocarbon column of 420 metres. Eni preliminary estimates put
the potential of the Minsala Marine discovery at about 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent in place,
of which 80% oil.
Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive of Eni, commented:
'We are delighted with this important result. It has been over four years since Eni started
exploring the shallow water pre-salt plays of West Africa, and this campaign continues to deliver
great results. We have already discovered about 4 billion barrels of oil equivalent in place,
between Congo and Gabon.
In Congo, this is the third discovery to be successfully drilled in the Marine XII permit pre-salt
play following the Litchjendily and Nene Marine discoveries, which are both already under
development. These discoveries are located in conventional waters near existing infrastructure
and can therefore be brought into production in very competitive time to market and cost. This
result also demonstrates Eni’s strong technical competences and the effectiveness of Eni’s
exploration technologies, especially given the technical complexity of exploring the West African
pre-salt plays.'
Eni has already planned the appraisal plan of the discovery as well as started studies for the
commercial development of this significant hydrocarbons reserves. Eni through its own
subsidiary Eni Congo is Operator of Marine XII with a 65% share stake.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 7
China :Output From Sinopec's Fuling Shale Gas Project Tops 1 Bcm
Sinopec + NewBase
Chinese energy major Sinopec on Thursday said that cumulative output from its Fuling shale gas
project in Chongqing has crossed one billion cubic meters (Bcm).
Commercial production at the project commenced in March last year. The company is currently
supplying the gas to local industries and households.
This project mainly consists of drilling 91 new wells and constructing shale gas gathering and
transmission facilities. The new production capacity is expected to be 1.8 billion cubic meters for
this year.
In July this year, Sinopec’s Fuling field was verified by Chinese government as country’s largest
shale gas play. China’s Ministry of Land and Resources verified proven reserves of nearly 107
billion cubic metres (bcm) in the Fuling shale gas field.
China’s shale gas output is likely to hit 6.5billion cubic meters next year, up from an estimated
output between 1 billion and 1.5billion cubic meters this year, vice director of the National Energy
Administration ZhangYuqing said earlier this month.
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in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 8
Sub-Saharan Africa to Produce More Gas Than Russia by 2040
IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook
Driven primarily by Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania and Angola, sub-Saharan Africa will outstrip
Russia as global gas supplier by 2040, according a report by International Energy Agency (IEA).
IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook, presented in Brussels on Wednesday stated that the region will
make the fourth-largest contribution globally to incremental gas supply through to 2040, behind
the Middle East, China and the United States but ahead of Latin America, the Caspian region,
Russia and
Australia.
Production will
increase to four-
times existing
levels, from 58
bcm in 2012 to
around 80 bcm in
2020, 160 bcm in
2030 and 230 bcm
in 2040, averaging
an annual growth
rate of 5 percent.
Overall, Nigeria
produces over 40
percent of all sub-Saharan gas over the projection period, followed by Mozambique (20 percent)
and Angola (13 percent). The remaining quarter of production is spread across more than 30
producers, led by Tanzania and South Africa, and smaller contributions from Equatorial Guinea,
Côte d’Ivoire and Congo.
Nigeria is, and remains, the largest gas producer in sub-Saharan Africa over the period, with
production of 85 bcm in 2040. Mozambique joins Nigeria as the other major gas producer in sub-
Saharan Africa and, in 2040, these two countries collectively account for nearly two-thirds of
regional production, the report said.
According to IEA, Mozambique sees the largest growth in gas production in the sub-Saharan
region, starting in the early-2020s, to reach 35 bcm in 2030 and 60 bcm in 2040, and is joined by
neighbouring Tanzania, which also grows from the early-2020s to 20 bcm by 2040, to bring online
a large source of supply on Africa’s east coast.
Production in Angola increases early in the projection period, with the stalled Angola LNG project
achieving its expected export volumes in 2016, reaching around 20 bcm in 2025 and maintaining
about that level to 2040, the IEA report stated.
Gas production in Central Africa grows modestly, staying flat overall for the first decade of the
projection period before gradually increasing to reach 16 bcm by 2040. Equatorial Guinea – the
second-largest producer in sub-Saharan Africa today – is the only existing producer in the region
whose output is lower than today in 2040, holding at around 6 bcm in the early years of the
projection period, before gradually declining, according to the report.
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US:Crude exports and re-exports continue to rise, with some
volumes sent to Europe and Asia. US Energy Information Admin., Petroleum Supply Monthly
The United States exported 401,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) of crude oil in July 2014, the highest
level of exports in 57 years and the second highest monthly export volume since 1920, when EIA's
published data starts. Recent crude oil exports are also noteworthy for both their origins and
destinations. As a result of existing U.S. crude oil export restrictions, most U.S. crude exports are
sourced domestically and are sent only to Canada.
However, since April, crude exports have included modest amounts of Canadian-produced barrels
that were moved through the United States and then re-exported to Switzerland, Spain, Italy, and
Singapore.
To export crude oil from the United States, a company must obtain a license from the Bureau of
Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Under export licensing
requirements, there are certain transactions that will generally be approved. Licenses for other
exports of U.S.-origin crude are considered on a case-by-case basis. For such other exports, the
regulations describe the characteristics of transactions that will generally be approved as in the
national interest.
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The recent shipments to Switzerland, Spain, Singapore, and Italy were small volumes of permitted
re-exports of Canadian crude oil that were not commingled with U.S.-produced barrels. As is the
case in the United States, some of the growth in Canada's crude oil production is taking place in
areas with limited infrastructure to bring the crude to refineries for processing. With limited pipeline
and rail takeaway capacity, some Canadian producers are testing the economic viability of moving
crude oil to the Gulf Coast for re-export to other markets.
It is unclear if this recent trend of Canadian re-exports from the Gulf Coast will continue, and if so,
for how long. Several proposed Canadian pipeline projects may provide producers with alternative
routes for delivering crude to markets beyond North America, but the timing of each of them is
uncertain.
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Oil Prices Drop Sepecial Coverage
OPEC stays calm despite market jitters
Syed Rashid Husain
Neither concerned nor cornered!
Crude supply and demand will return to equilibrium, OPEC is arguing. Market should stop
panicking because crude supply and demand will return to equilibrium - sooner rather than later,
insists OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri.
While the direction of oil prices, which have fallen by about 25 percent since June, remains
unclear in the short term, they will have to rebound to guarantee long-term supply, he insisted.
“We don’t see really fundamental changes in the supply side or the demand side,” El-Badri told
reporters during a briefing at the Oil & Money conference in London last week. “Unfortunately
everyone is panicking. The press is panicking, consumers are panicking. We really should think
and see how this will develop.”
Despite the slump, OPEC is not faced with a “critical situation,” El-Badri underlined. It’s collective
output in 2015 will remain close to this year’s level of about 30 million barrels a day, he said. “We
are not seeing a clear picture of what the direction of price will be, even (later) in November (when
OPEC meets),” El-Badri added.
Producers of tight oil from shale rock formations will suffer first from crude’s collapse because they
need higher prices to keep pumping profitably, he underscored. About 50 percent of current shale
output will be curbed if oil remains at current levels. “If the price is declining a lot of the investment
will go out of the market,” El-Badri added. “Deep areas, remote areas, many areas will be affected
and this includes tight oil.”
“There is no price war,” El-Badri declared. “Our countries are following the market. People are
selling according to the market price.”
Not everyone though is optimistic. Markets are concerned. Leading investment bank Goldman
Sachs says the benchmark price of North American oil is going to fall even further, to $70 a barrel
by next spring, slashing its forecast last week for both West Texas Intermediate (known as WTI)
and Brent crude.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
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In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs analyst Jeff Currie wrote, “We are lowering our oil price
forecast to reflect the required slowdown in US production growth: our WTI crude oil forecast is
$75/bbl for 1Q15 and 2H15 (from $90/bbl previously). Given our unchanged WTI-Brent spread
forecast of $10/bbl, our Brent forecast is now $85/bbl ($100/bbl previously)… Our 2016 and long-
term forecasts are now $80/bbl WTI, $90/bbl Brent.” However, Goldman did concede, “Uncertainty
around the required price to slow down US shale production growth is a key risk to our price
forecast.”
The main reason the bank cited for its call is simple supply and demand — there’s just more oil
being produced now than the world needs. “I think it’ll go lower than $70,” Charles K. Ebinger,
director of the Energy Security Initiative at Brookings was quoted as saying. “I think $65 is not at
all impossible.”
“India and China are slowing down,” he added. “The IMF has just downgraded Europe’s growth to
less than 1 percent, and they’re already quite energy efficient. Brazil’s a problem, too. All around
the world there is no great growth story, and expectations are that things will stay that way or get
worse.”
“Japan’s announcement that they’re starting two (nuclear) reactors means that there will be less
oil import for Japan,” Ebinger said. Second, there are industrial shifts that are reducing oil’s share
in the energy market. For example, many US companies are using natural gas rather than
petroleum products to power their refineries. Third, hedge funds went long on crude when they
saw the Middle East flaming up. But as the price has moved against them, they’ve dumped oil into
a soft market, further driving down the price of crude.
And Ebinger also doesn’t seem to be buying the argument that lower prices could hurt high cost
shale output. “The International Energy Industry is saying that at $80 (a barrel), some production
will start to shut down,” Ebinger said, “but I was talking to North Dakota producers, and they’ve
said their cheaper wells are okay down to $25 and their higher-cost wells are okay down to $45,
because some of their losses would be protected under the federal tax code.” Dakota firms might
not drill new wells under that price, but “they can probably survive down to pretty low levels,” he
underlined.
French oil major Total SA, recovering from the accidental death of its big moustached CEO
Christophe de Margerie also underlined last Wednesday that the recent slide in oil prices has
damped the third-quarter earnings of the company and could hurt its results for the rest of the year
too. Total’s adjusted net profit fell 2 percent in the third quarter to $3.56 billion as the average
price of the key Brent crude oil benchmark over the period fell by 8 percent. The company warned
that earnings would likely deteriorate further in the fourth quarter, with oil prices already down 11
percent since the end of September. The oil price decline led to a 10 percent fall in operating profit
at Total’s upstream division, which comprises oil and gas exploration and extraction, and
contributes 70 percent to Total’s operating income.
Setting out the correlation between market prices and profits, Patrick de la Chevardière, Total’s
chief financial officer, said the company loses about $1.5 billion of net profit for every $10 decline
on the Brent oil.
Tumbling oil prices have also hit the earnings of London-listed energy companies, in one of the
first tangible signs of how the oil supply glut is reverberating across the industry. British oil major
BP also reported an 18 percent drop in third-quarter profits in part due to the drop in the oil price
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
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over the period and declining profit from its stake in Rosneft, the Russian state oil company. “This
is prompting the whole sector to consider the implications of a sustained period of lower oil
prices,” said Brian Gilvary, BP’s chief financial officer. And the effect could be even greater in the
final quarter, since the oil price has been falling more sharply since the end of September than it
did in the three prior months.
Other factors also seem hurting the industry structure. In discussing the “end of oil,” on CNBC’s
Fast Money last week, Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Newsletter emphasized that crude oil
prices will fall demonstrably from current levels. He referenced news from Lockheed Martin earlier
this month that the aerospace giant has made a technological breakthrough in developing a power
source based on nuclear fusion. And though some in the scientific community still appeared
skeptical of the breakthrough, Gartman sees the potential in this breakthrough as being something
of a death knell for oil.
Even Prince Waleed Bin Talal is publicly concerned and indeed apprehensive of the emerging oil
market scenario. How would OPEC emerge unscathed from all this flux in the oil markets? El-
Badri has an answer to make.
Weak oil demand puts Saudi in dilemma
Reuters +NewBase
A strong Dubai price in a weak oil market has created a dilemma for top oil exporter Saudi Arabia
as it works out official monthly selling prices for December, said indutsry experts. The largest
Opec producer is expected to raise the December
prices for most of the crude grades it sells to Asia
when it notifies customers early next week.
A hike would be in line with a strong Dubai market, but
traders said that benchmark is not reflecting weak
demand and poor refining margins in Asia, they
stated. "It's a tricky one this month," said a trader with
a Western firm. "They will go up, but by how much, I'm
not sure, particularly as they have been very
aggressive on securing market share."
Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) - in no hurry to cut output
despite global benchmarks at multi-year lows - have been competing on their official selling prices
as they fight for market share, analysts said. Saudi Arabia slashed November prices last month,
sparking talk of an emerging price war.
For December, the kingdom could raise official selling prices (OSPs) across the board by at least
$1 a barrel if it adheres to an informal formula typically used as a guide, a survey of five refiners
and traders in Asia showed. The formula is loosely based on the average monthly changes in the
spread between the first and third month Dubai cash prices and refining margins for oil products.
"It's a special situation. If you just call it, there should be a big jump," a trader said. Cash Dubai
flipped into what traders called an "artificial backwardation" supported solely by strong demand
from Chinaoil in a market assessment process in Singapore, even as Brent was in contango and
has lost a quarter of its value since June.
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Prompt prices are higher than those in future months in a backwardated market, indicating strong
spot demand. The reverse is true in a contango market. But Saudi Arabia may raise prices by a
smaller than expected margin for December, traders said, as the producer could take into account
weak spot demand in Asia, especially after the strength in Dubai snubbed out refining margin
gains seen in September.
A slump in naphtha cracks could also cap price hikes for light grades such as Arab Super Light
and Arab Extra Light, traders said. "Refiners hope Saudi will consider not to reflect the distorted
window market," a trader with a North Asian refiner said, referring to deals revealed during pricing
agency Platts' market assessment process.
Saudi crude OSPs are usually released by the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian,
Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices. Amid increasing signs that Gulf producers are engaged in a price war to
compete for market share, Kuwait has maintained a wide discount between the crude it sells to
Asia against Saudi Arab Medium for November.
Opec oil output falls by 120,000 bpd in October
Reuters
The oil supply of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) in October has fallen
by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to lower production in Angola and Nigeria, a Reuters survey
found, although recovery in Libya and growth in Iraq kept output close to September's two-year
high.
The survey also indicates Saudi Arabia and heavyweight Gulf producers are showing no sign of
deliberately cutting exports to address oversupply and support prices that slipped to a four-year
low below $83 a barrel this month.
Opec supply has averaged 30.72 million bpd in October, down from a revised 30.84 million bpd in
September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil
companies,Opec and consultants.
The organisation pumps a third of the world's oil and meets in November to set output policy for
early 2015. Despite oil's drop below $100, the price manyOpec members had endorsed, the group
appears unwilling to forego market share by cutting supplies.
"The big question for me is willOpec be willing to reduce its supply sufficiently to rebalance the
market next year," Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said in the Reuters
Global Oil Forum. "I have doubts."
September's output wasOpec's highest since November 2012, when it pumped 31.06 million bpd,
according to Reuters surveys. Involuntary outages, such as in Libya, kept output belowOpec's
nominal 30 million bpd target in earlier months of the year.
Lower exports scheduling from Angola and Nigeria reduced supplies by a combined 100,000 bpd,
while Saudi output was assessed a marginal 50,000 bpd lower due to a reduced need for crude to
fuel domestic power plants. "Exports are flat, refinery runs are not much changed and direct burn
lower, so overall supply is down," said one of the sources who monitors Saudi output.
The shutdown of the Khafji oilfield, jointly run by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, slightly curbed Kuwaiti
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 15
output but has not affected Saudi production as Riyadh holds a vast amount of capacity in
reserve, sources in the survey said.
Of the countries boosting output, the largest gain has come from Libya. Supply has edged up
another 40,000 bpd in October, although it fluctuated during the month due to bouts of unrest and
the rate of increase has slowed from earlier months. In Iraq, oil output rose due to higher exports
from the country's southern terminals, despite some weather-related delays, and increased output
from fields in Kurdistan.
While someOpec members have voiced concern over the drop in prices, indications are thatOpec
is unlikely to cut its output target when it meets in Vienna on Nov. 27. OPEC's most recent
published forecast suggests demand for its crude will fall to 29.20 million bpd in 2015 due to rising
supply of U.S. shale oil and supplies from other producers outside the group.
However,Opec Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri this week said demand forOpec crude could
be as high as 30 million bpd in 2015, taking into account "abnormal circumstances" such as
unplanned outages. "I don't think 2015 will be far away from 2014 in terms of production," he said
during a visit to London. "I am sure the market will balance itself “.
Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained
in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 16
NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
Your partner in Energy Services
Khaled Malallah Al Awadi,
Energy Consultant
MSc. & BSc. Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
ASME member since 1995
Emarat member since 1990
Mobile : +97150-4822502
khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
khdmohd@hotmail.com
Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a totalKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a totalKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a totalKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total
of 24 yearsof 24 yearsof 24 yearsof 24 years of experience in theof experience in theof experience in theof experience in the Oil & GasOil & GasOil & GasOil & Gas
sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist forsector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist forsector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist forsector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for
Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “EmarEmirates General Petroleum Corp. “EmarEmirates General Petroleum Corp. “EmarEmirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with externalat“ with externalat“ with externalat“ with external
voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawkvoluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawkvoluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawkvoluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk
Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of theEnergy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of theEnergy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of theEnergy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the
experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager inexperience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager inexperience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager inexperience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in
Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network FacilityEmarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network FacilityEmarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network FacilityEmarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility
& ga& ga& ga& gas compressor stations . Through the years , he hass compressor stations . Through the years , he hass compressor stations . Through the years , he hass compressor stations . Through the years , he has
developed great experiences in the designing & constructingdeveloped great experiences in the designing & constructingdeveloped great experiences in the designing & constructingdeveloped great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in theof gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in theof gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in theof gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the
engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas tengineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas tengineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas tengineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenanceransportation , operation & maintenanceransportation , operation & maintenanceransportation , operation & maintenance
agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gasagreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gasagreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gasagreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas
Conferences held in the UAE andConferences held in the UAE andConferences held in the UAE andConferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellitEnergy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellitEnergy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellitEnergy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels .e Channels .e Channels .e Channels .
NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE
NewBase 02 November 2014 K. Al Awadi

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New base special 02 november 2014

  • 1. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 1 NewBase 02 November 2014 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Qatargas wins Arabia Corporate Social Resposibility award The Peninsula Qatargas has bagged the first prize in the ‘Large Size Enterprise’ category across the Mena region at the coveted Arabia Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Award, according to a press statement issued yesterday. The Arabia CSR Award is the most prestigious CSR and sustainability related recognition in the region, honouring and showcasing organisations in the Middle East, Levant and North Africa region that demonstrate a clear strategy and effective implementation of CSR. The award was presented at the 7th cycle of the Arabia CSR Forum at a ceremony held recently in Dubai. Mansour Rashid Al Naimi, Qatargas Public Relations Manager received the award on behalf of the company. Khalid bin Khalifa Al Thani, Qatargas CEO, said: “We are delighted to win this prestigious award, which is a testament to Qatargas’ robust CSR programme focused on long-term, sustainable initiatives. As a leader in the global energy industry, Qatargas has made significant contributions to a sustainable future for our country and the world at large. Over the past few years, we have made huge financial investments in reducing our carbon footprint, improving air quality, reducing and recycling waste, judicious use of water and, above all, community development at different levels.” Ghanim Al Kuwari, COO (Administration), Qatargas, added: “This award is the result of our continued commitment to a cohesive, dynamic CSR programme that inspires our employees, as much as it benefits the community. We work in an engaged and collaborative manner with our stakeholders taking great care to thoroughly assess the social and environmental value of our initiatives and the potential to add value to the objectives of the Qatar National Vision 2030.” Awards were presented in six different categories. The ‘Large Sized Enterprises’ category comprises organisations with more than 500 employees. A jury panel consisting of multinational experts in the field of CSR and sustainability selected the winners from a total of 155 applications representing 25 industries from 12 countries in the region. Qatargas’ CSR initiatives are spread over five broad areas covering education, environment, health and safety, community development and sports.
  • 2. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 2 Egypt signs $350m oil, power financing deals with Saudi Arabia ARABIAN BUSINESS + NEWBASE Egypt signed $350 million worth of financing agreements with Saudi Arabia on Saturday aimed at upgrading its power grid and securing imports of petroleum products as it seeks to end its worst energy crisis in decades. Power cuts have become common in Egypt as the cash-strapped government struggles to supply enough gas to its power stations let alone upgrade a grid suffering from decades of neglect. The energy crunch has become a political hot potato in the Arab world's most populous country, which has turned from a gas exporter into a net importer in recent years as it diverts gas once destined for export to meet burgeoning domestic demand. Lines at petrol stations and a shortage of gas were among the main public grievances against former President Mohamed Mursi of the Muslim Brotherhood. But oil-producing Gulf allies have come to Egypt's aid since the army, prompted by mass protests, ousted Mursi last year. Two loan agreements signed on Saturday worth a total of about $100 million will be invested in two electricity stations that are expected to boost the capacity of the national grid. A further $250 million in assistance will come in the form of petroleum products. Saudi Arabia sent Egypt $3 billion worth of refined oil products between April and September of this year, according to an Egyptian oil official, while the total value of Saudi oil aid since July 2013 amounted to about $5 billion. Egypt has also turned to the United Arab Emirates for oil products, signing deal in September that commits it to purchasing about 65 percent of its needs from its Gulf ally in the next year. Egypt introduced deep cuts to energy subsidies in July, which have resulted in price rises of more than 70 percent, as it seeks to curb public spending and fuel waste.
  • 3. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 3 British gas prices fall to 52 pence per therm on Russia deal Reuters + NewBase British wholesale gas prices for the rest of this year fell yesterday after Ukraine and Russia signed a deal that will see Moscow resume gas supplies to Kiev this winter, while warm UK weather and high storage levels added to the bearish tone. Russia is Europe’s biggest supplier of gas and provides around a third of the continent’s needs, pumping roughly half of that via Ukraine. Some of this reaches Britain from continental European storage sites. Failure to reach an agreement would have raised fears of disruptions to European gas supply via Ukraine this winter, but prices of wholesale natural gas had already been declining on Thursday afternoon in anticipation of a deal. The UK gas contract for delivery in November was trading at 52.20 pence per therm at 0915 GMT on Friday, down 1.5 percent from the previous settlement. It earlier touched 52.00 pence, its lowest since the contract began trading. The December contract was at 54.60 pence per therm, down 1.7 percent, having touched its lowest ever level of 54.40 pence in earlier trade. However, traders said the falls were not that substantial. “Everyone was expecting this (deal) to happen so it’s not going to have a massive impact on prices, although the near months have come off a bit,” one gas trader said. “There are no real bullish indicators out there. The long-term forecast for November and December is warm; storage is very high right across the continent,” he added.
  • 4. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 4 India: Oilex announces significant progress in achieving proof of concept objectives for Cambay-77H Source: Oilex + NewBase Oilex has announced significant progress in achieving the proof of concept objectives for Cambay-77H. These objectives are critical to demonstrating the Cambay Field can be commercially developed using multi-stage fracture treatments (fracs) in horizontal wells. Cambay-77H has a very short lateral section of 350m with 8 fracs that were successfully completed in 4 stages. The key objectives achieved include: • Efficient drilling operations that demonstrated repeatability by successfully intersecting the Y zone at the predicted depth, while steering around other existing wells o Well logs confirm the Y zone is hydrocarbon bearing o Provides confidence that the Y zone reservoir properties are laterally consistent, and any variability is within expectation • Successfully perforated, isolated and treated 8 fractures in 4 stages • All fracs interpreted to extend ~ 60m into the reservoir from the well bore which is interpreted to be sufficient for commercial production in longer laterals • "Plug and Perf" completion method is achievable and repeatable in India • Flowback activities, including recovery of Operations water from this type of well can be successfully executed in the Cambay Field Other key outcomes that influence the future commercialisation of Cambay Field are: • The hydrocarbon liquid to gas ratio (LGR) during flowback has been ~100 bbls of liquids per MMscfd of gas. This ratio is 250% higher than expected which if sustained, leads to a much higher unit revenue stream in barrels of oil equivalent (Boe).
  • 5. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 5 • Oil and gas recovery started on the first day of flowback and gas sales during flowback operations in future wells is possible as the gas market is readily available. This leads to early cash flow and faster payback of well costs. • Well modelling calibrated to flowback production over ~ 85 days indicates that frac spacing in future wells with longer laterals can be increased. Fewer fracs per unit length can lead to significant cost savings. • Cambay-77H sustained production rate of 0.5 - 1.0MMscfd has been predicted using the well model calibrated to flowback production and is up to 185% greater than Cambay-73, which has a single frac in a vertical well. Cambay-73 was flowing 0.35MMscfd when shut in during June 2012 and will be returned to production subsequent to the installation and commissioning of facilities. • The recovery of Operations water is >79% and therefore at the high end of expectation and North American experience. No formation water has been recovered to date which continues to confirm the thesis that no direct oil water contact (OWC) is accessible within the Y zone. • As Cambay-77H is on "self-flow" with no artificial lift, a significant proportion of reservoir energy within the drainage area of the well has been used to recover large volumes of Operations water. This means less reservoir energy is available to produce oil and gas during the flowback period. • Future wells with longer laterals and wider fracture spacing will have larger drainage areas and access more reservoir energy. Proportionately less energy should be needed to recover Operations water, resulting in higher gas and oil production rates. The Cambay JV's progress at the Cambay Field compares favourably to other experiences in which a single operator is applying unconventional multi- stage fracture treatments in a new basin or field. Range Resources Corporation successfully applied Barnett Shale style fractures to the Marcellus Field from 2004 to 2008, which is now one of the largest producing gas fields in the world. The enclosed charts compare Cambay horizontal wells to the initial Marcellus well results for Range Resources. For charts, please click on, or paste the following link in to your web browser, to view the PDF file: http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7801V_-2014-10-31.pdf Range Resources 'cracked the code' in the Marcellus with Well #4 when it achieved a flow rate of 3.2 MMscf/d. Oilex continues to draw on the experience of others to shorten the learning curve for Cambay Field development.
  • 6. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 6 Congo (Brazzaville): Eni reports new significant oil discovery offshore Source: Eni + NewBase Eni has made a new important oil discovery in the Minsala Marine exploration prospect located in the Marine XII Block offshore Congo at 35 kms from the shoreline and 12 kms from the recentNené Marine discovery. The discovery was made through the Minsala Marine 1 well which was drilled in 75 metres of water depth and reached a total depth of 3,700 metres. The well encountered a significant accumulation of light oil in the Lower Cretaceous age pre-salt sequence, passing through a hydrocarbon column of 420 metres. Eni preliminary estimates put the potential of the Minsala Marine discovery at about 1 billion barrels of oil equivalent in place, of which 80% oil. Claudio Descalzi, Chief Executive of Eni, commented: 'We are delighted with this important result. It has been over four years since Eni started exploring the shallow water pre-salt plays of West Africa, and this campaign continues to deliver great results. We have already discovered about 4 billion barrels of oil equivalent in place, between Congo and Gabon. In Congo, this is the third discovery to be successfully drilled in the Marine XII permit pre-salt play following the Litchjendily and Nene Marine discoveries, which are both already under development. These discoveries are located in conventional waters near existing infrastructure and can therefore be brought into production in very competitive time to market and cost. This result also demonstrates Eni’s strong technical competences and the effectiveness of Eni’s exploration technologies, especially given the technical complexity of exploring the West African pre-salt plays.' Eni has already planned the appraisal plan of the discovery as well as started studies for the commercial development of this significant hydrocarbons reserves. Eni through its own subsidiary Eni Congo is Operator of Marine XII with a 65% share stake.
  • 7. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 7 China :Output From Sinopec's Fuling Shale Gas Project Tops 1 Bcm Sinopec + NewBase Chinese energy major Sinopec on Thursday said that cumulative output from its Fuling shale gas project in Chongqing has crossed one billion cubic meters (Bcm). Commercial production at the project commenced in March last year. The company is currently supplying the gas to local industries and households. This project mainly consists of drilling 91 new wells and constructing shale gas gathering and transmission facilities. The new production capacity is expected to be 1.8 billion cubic meters for this year. In July this year, Sinopec’s Fuling field was verified by Chinese government as country’s largest shale gas play. China’s Ministry of Land and Resources verified proven reserves of nearly 107 billion cubic metres (bcm) in the Fuling shale gas field. China’s shale gas output is likely to hit 6.5billion cubic meters next year, up from an estimated output between 1 billion and 1.5billion cubic meters this year, vice director of the National Energy Administration ZhangYuqing said earlier this month.
  • 8. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 8 Sub-Saharan Africa to Produce More Gas Than Russia by 2040 IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook Driven primarily by Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania and Angola, sub-Saharan Africa will outstrip Russia as global gas supplier by 2040, according a report by International Energy Agency (IEA). IEA’s Africa Energy Outlook, presented in Brussels on Wednesday stated that the region will make the fourth-largest contribution globally to incremental gas supply through to 2040, behind the Middle East, China and the United States but ahead of Latin America, the Caspian region, Russia and Australia. Production will increase to four- times existing levels, from 58 bcm in 2012 to around 80 bcm in 2020, 160 bcm in 2030 and 230 bcm in 2040, averaging an annual growth rate of 5 percent. Overall, Nigeria produces over 40 percent of all sub-Saharan gas over the projection period, followed by Mozambique (20 percent) and Angola (13 percent). The remaining quarter of production is spread across more than 30 producers, led by Tanzania and South Africa, and smaller contributions from Equatorial Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire and Congo. Nigeria is, and remains, the largest gas producer in sub-Saharan Africa over the period, with production of 85 bcm in 2040. Mozambique joins Nigeria as the other major gas producer in sub- Saharan Africa and, in 2040, these two countries collectively account for nearly two-thirds of regional production, the report said. According to IEA, Mozambique sees the largest growth in gas production in the sub-Saharan region, starting in the early-2020s, to reach 35 bcm in 2030 and 60 bcm in 2040, and is joined by neighbouring Tanzania, which also grows from the early-2020s to 20 bcm by 2040, to bring online a large source of supply on Africa’s east coast. Production in Angola increases early in the projection period, with the stalled Angola LNG project achieving its expected export volumes in 2016, reaching around 20 bcm in 2025 and maintaining about that level to 2040, the IEA report stated. Gas production in Central Africa grows modestly, staying flat overall for the first decade of the projection period before gradually increasing to reach 16 bcm by 2040. Equatorial Guinea – the second-largest producer in sub-Saharan Africa today – is the only existing producer in the region whose output is lower than today in 2040, holding at around 6 bcm in the early years of the projection period, before gradually declining, according to the report.
  • 9. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 9 US:Crude exports and re-exports continue to rise, with some volumes sent to Europe and Asia. US Energy Information Admin., Petroleum Supply Monthly The United States exported 401,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) of crude oil in July 2014, the highest level of exports in 57 years and the second highest monthly export volume since 1920, when EIA's published data starts. Recent crude oil exports are also noteworthy for both their origins and destinations. As a result of existing U.S. crude oil export restrictions, most U.S. crude exports are sourced domestically and are sent only to Canada. However, since April, crude exports have included modest amounts of Canadian-produced barrels that were moved through the United States and then re-exported to Switzerland, Spain, Italy, and Singapore. To export crude oil from the United States, a company must obtain a license from the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) of the U.S. Department of Commerce. Under export licensing requirements, there are certain transactions that will generally be approved. Licenses for other exports of U.S.-origin crude are considered on a case-by-case basis. For such other exports, the regulations describe the characteristics of transactions that will generally be approved as in the national interest.
  • 10. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 10 The recent shipments to Switzerland, Spain, Singapore, and Italy were small volumes of permitted re-exports of Canadian crude oil that were not commingled with U.S.-produced barrels. As is the case in the United States, some of the growth in Canada's crude oil production is taking place in areas with limited infrastructure to bring the crude to refineries for processing. With limited pipeline and rail takeaway capacity, some Canadian producers are testing the economic viability of moving crude oil to the Gulf Coast for re-export to other markets. It is unclear if this recent trend of Canadian re-exports from the Gulf Coast will continue, and if so, for how long. Several proposed Canadian pipeline projects may provide producers with alternative routes for delivering crude to markets beyond North America, but the timing of each of them is uncertain.
  • 11. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 11 Oil Prices Drop Sepecial Coverage OPEC stays calm despite market jitters Syed Rashid Husain Neither concerned nor cornered! Crude supply and demand will return to equilibrium, OPEC is arguing. Market should stop panicking because crude supply and demand will return to equilibrium - sooner rather than later, insists OPEC Secretary General Abdalla El-Badri. While the direction of oil prices, which have fallen by about 25 percent since June, remains unclear in the short term, they will have to rebound to guarantee long-term supply, he insisted. “We don’t see really fundamental changes in the supply side or the demand side,” El-Badri told reporters during a briefing at the Oil & Money conference in London last week. “Unfortunately everyone is panicking. The press is panicking, consumers are panicking. We really should think and see how this will develop.” Despite the slump, OPEC is not faced with a “critical situation,” El-Badri underlined. It’s collective output in 2015 will remain close to this year’s level of about 30 million barrels a day, he said. “We are not seeing a clear picture of what the direction of price will be, even (later) in November (when OPEC meets),” El-Badri added. Producers of tight oil from shale rock formations will suffer first from crude’s collapse because they need higher prices to keep pumping profitably, he underscored. About 50 percent of current shale output will be curbed if oil remains at current levels. “If the price is declining a lot of the investment will go out of the market,” El-Badri added. “Deep areas, remote areas, many areas will be affected and this includes tight oil.” “There is no price war,” El-Badri declared. “Our countries are following the market. People are selling according to the market price.” Not everyone though is optimistic. Markets are concerned. Leading investment bank Goldman Sachs says the benchmark price of North American oil is going to fall even further, to $70 a barrel by next spring, slashing its forecast last week for both West Texas Intermediate (known as WTI) and Brent crude.
  • 12. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 12 In a note to clients, Goldman Sachs analyst Jeff Currie wrote, “We are lowering our oil price forecast to reflect the required slowdown in US production growth: our WTI crude oil forecast is $75/bbl for 1Q15 and 2H15 (from $90/bbl previously). Given our unchanged WTI-Brent spread forecast of $10/bbl, our Brent forecast is now $85/bbl ($100/bbl previously)… Our 2016 and long- term forecasts are now $80/bbl WTI, $90/bbl Brent.” However, Goldman did concede, “Uncertainty around the required price to slow down US shale production growth is a key risk to our price forecast.” The main reason the bank cited for its call is simple supply and demand — there’s just more oil being produced now than the world needs. “I think it’ll go lower than $70,” Charles K. Ebinger, director of the Energy Security Initiative at Brookings was quoted as saying. “I think $65 is not at all impossible.” “India and China are slowing down,” he added. “The IMF has just downgraded Europe’s growth to less than 1 percent, and they’re already quite energy efficient. Brazil’s a problem, too. All around the world there is no great growth story, and expectations are that things will stay that way or get worse.” “Japan’s announcement that they’re starting two (nuclear) reactors means that there will be less oil import for Japan,” Ebinger said. Second, there are industrial shifts that are reducing oil’s share in the energy market. For example, many US companies are using natural gas rather than petroleum products to power their refineries. Third, hedge funds went long on crude when they saw the Middle East flaming up. But as the price has moved against them, they’ve dumped oil into a soft market, further driving down the price of crude. And Ebinger also doesn’t seem to be buying the argument that lower prices could hurt high cost shale output. “The International Energy Industry is saying that at $80 (a barrel), some production will start to shut down,” Ebinger said, “but I was talking to North Dakota producers, and they’ve said their cheaper wells are okay down to $25 and their higher-cost wells are okay down to $45, because some of their losses would be protected under the federal tax code.” Dakota firms might not drill new wells under that price, but “they can probably survive down to pretty low levels,” he underlined. French oil major Total SA, recovering from the accidental death of its big moustached CEO Christophe de Margerie also underlined last Wednesday that the recent slide in oil prices has damped the third-quarter earnings of the company and could hurt its results for the rest of the year too. Total’s adjusted net profit fell 2 percent in the third quarter to $3.56 billion as the average price of the key Brent crude oil benchmark over the period fell by 8 percent. The company warned that earnings would likely deteriorate further in the fourth quarter, with oil prices already down 11 percent since the end of September. The oil price decline led to a 10 percent fall in operating profit at Total’s upstream division, which comprises oil and gas exploration and extraction, and contributes 70 percent to Total’s operating income. Setting out the correlation between market prices and profits, Patrick de la Chevardière, Total’s chief financial officer, said the company loses about $1.5 billion of net profit for every $10 decline on the Brent oil. Tumbling oil prices have also hit the earnings of London-listed energy companies, in one of the first tangible signs of how the oil supply glut is reverberating across the industry. British oil major BP also reported an 18 percent drop in third-quarter profits in part due to the drop in the oil price
  • 13. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 13 over the period and declining profit from its stake in Rosneft, the Russian state oil company. “This is prompting the whole sector to consider the implications of a sustained period of lower oil prices,” said Brian Gilvary, BP’s chief financial officer. And the effect could be even greater in the final quarter, since the oil price has been falling more sharply since the end of September than it did in the three prior months. Other factors also seem hurting the industry structure. In discussing the “end of oil,” on CNBC’s Fast Money last week, Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Newsletter emphasized that crude oil prices will fall demonstrably from current levels. He referenced news from Lockheed Martin earlier this month that the aerospace giant has made a technological breakthrough in developing a power source based on nuclear fusion. And though some in the scientific community still appeared skeptical of the breakthrough, Gartman sees the potential in this breakthrough as being something of a death knell for oil. Even Prince Waleed Bin Talal is publicly concerned and indeed apprehensive of the emerging oil market scenario. How would OPEC emerge unscathed from all this flux in the oil markets? El- Badri has an answer to make. Weak oil demand puts Saudi in dilemma Reuters +NewBase A strong Dubai price in a weak oil market has created a dilemma for top oil exporter Saudi Arabia as it works out official monthly selling prices for December, said indutsry experts. The largest Opec producer is expected to raise the December prices for most of the crude grades it sells to Asia when it notifies customers early next week. A hike would be in line with a strong Dubai market, but traders said that benchmark is not reflecting weak demand and poor refining margins in Asia, they stated. "It's a tricky one this month," said a trader with a Western firm. "They will go up, but by how much, I'm not sure, particularly as they have been very aggressive on securing market share." Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) - in no hurry to cut output despite global benchmarks at multi-year lows - have been competing on their official selling prices as they fight for market share, analysts said. Saudi Arabia slashed November prices last month, sparking talk of an emerging price war. For December, the kingdom could raise official selling prices (OSPs) across the board by at least $1 a barrel if it adheres to an informal formula typically used as a guide, a survey of five refiners and traders in Asia showed. The formula is loosely based on the average monthly changes in the spread between the first and third month Dubai cash prices and refining margins for oil products. "It's a special situation. If you just call it, there should be a big jump," a trader said. Cash Dubai flipped into what traders called an "artificial backwardation" supported solely by strong demand from Chinaoil in a market assessment process in Singapore, even as Brent was in contango and has lost a quarter of its value since June.
  • 14. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 14 Prompt prices are higher than those in future months in a backwardated market, indicating strong spot demand. The reverse is true in a contango market. But Saudi Arabia may raise prices by a smaller than expected margin for December, traders said, as the producer could take into account weak spot demand in Asia, especially after the strength in Dubai snubbed out refining margin gains seen in September. A slump in naphtha cracks could also cap price hikes for light grades such as Arab Super Light and Arab Extra Light, traders said. "Refiners hope Saudi will consider not to reflect the distorted window market," a trader with a North Asian refiner said, referring to deals revealed during pricing agency Platts' market assessment process. Saudi crude OSPs are usually released by the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices. Amid increasing signs that Gulf producers are engaged in a price war to compete for market share, Kuwait has maintained a wide discount between the crude it sells to Asia against Saudi Arab Medium for November. Opec oil output falls by 120,000 bpd in October Reuters The oil supply of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) in October has fallen by 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) due to lower production in Angola and Nigeria, a Reuters survey found, although recovery in Libya and growth in Iraq kept output close to September's two-year high. The survey also indicates Saudi Arabia and heavyweight Gulf producers are showing no sign of deliberately cutting exports to address oversupply and support prices that slipped to a four-year low below $83 a barrel this month. Opec supply has averaged 30.72 million bpd in October, down from a revised 30.84 million bpd in September, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies,Opec and consultants. The organisation pumps a third of the world's oil and meets in November to set output policy for early 2015. Despite oil's drop below $100, the price manyOpec members had endorsed, the group appears unwilling to forego market share by cutting supplies. "The big question for me is willOpec be willing to reduce its supply sufficiently to rebalance the market next year," Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, said in the Reuters Global Oil Forum. "I have doubts." September's output wasOpec's highest since November 2012, when it pumped 31.06 million bpd, according to Reuters surveys. Involuntary outages, such as in Libya, kept output belowOpec's nominal 30 million bpd target in earlier months of the year. Lower exports scheduling from Angola and Nigeria reduced supplies by a combined 100,000 bpd, while Saudi output was assessed a marginal 50,000 bpd lower due to a reduced need for crude to fuel domestic power plants. "Exports are flat, refinery runs are not much changed and direct burn lower, so overall supply is down," said one of the sources who monitors Saudi output. The shutdown of the Khafji oilfield, jointly run by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, slightly curbed Kuwaiti
  • 15. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 15 output but has not affected Saudi production as Riyadh holds a vast amount of capacity in reserve, sources in the survey said. Of the countries boosting output, the largest gain has come from Libya. Supply has edged up another 40,000 bpd in October, although it fluctuated during the month due to bouts of unrest and the rate of increase has slowed from earlier months. In Iraq, oil output rose due to higher exports from the country's southern terminals, despite some weather-related delays, and increased output from fields in Kurdistan. While someOpec members have voiced concern over the drop in prices, indications are thatOpec is unlikely to cut its output target when it meets in Vienna on Nov. 27. OPEC's most recent published forecast suggests demand for its crude will fall to 29.20 million bpd in 2015 due to rising supply of U.S. shale oil and supplies from other producers outside the group. However,Opec Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri this week said demand forOpec crude could be as high as 30 million bpd in 2015, taking into account "abnormal circumstances" such as unplanned outages. "I don't think 2015 will be far away from 2014 in terms of production," he said during a visit to London. "I am sure the market will balance itself “.
  • 16. Copyright © 2014 NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content . Page 16 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Your partner in Energy Services Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MSc. & BSc. Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA ASME member since 1995 Emarat member since 1990 Mobile : +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a totalKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a totalKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a totalKhaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 24 yearsof 24 yearsof 24 yearsof 24 years of experience in theof experience in theof experience in theof experience in the Oil & GasOil & GasOil & GasOil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist forsector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist forsector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist forsector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “EmarEmirates General Petroleum Corp. “EmarEmirates General Petroleum Corp. “EmarEmirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with externalat“ with externalat“ with externalat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawkvoluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawkvoluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawkvoluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of theEnergy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of theEnergy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of theEnergy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager inexperience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager inexperience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager inexperience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network FacilityEmarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network FacilityEmarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network FacilityEmarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & ga& ga& ga& gas compressor stations . Through the years , he hass compressor stations . Through the years , he hass compressor stations . Through the years , he hass compressor stations . Through the years , he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructingdeveloped great experiences in the designing & constructingdeveloped great experiences in the designing & constructingdeveloped great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in theof gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in theof gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in theof gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas tengineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas tengineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas tengineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation , operation & maintenanceransportation , operation & maintenanceransportation , operation & maintenanceransportation , operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gasagreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gasagreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gasagreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE andConferences held in the UAE andConferences held in the UAE andConferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellitEnergy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellitEnergy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellitEnergy program broadcasted internationally , via GCC leading satellite Channels .e Channels .e Channels .e Channels . NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase 02 November 2014 K. Al Awadi