Saudi aims to emulate Germany's renewable success

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NewBase Energy News 15 January 2021 - Issue No. 1399 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
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Saudi Arabia Aims to Become Next Germany of Renewable Energy
Bloomberg -Matthew Martin + NewBase
Saudi Arabia wants to emulate Germany’s success with renewable energy and be a pioneer in
hydrogen production, as the world’s biggest exporter of oil seeks to diversify its economy.
We will be another Germany when it comes to renewables,” Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin
Salman said Wednesday on a panel at the Future Investment Initiative conference in Riyadh. “We
will be pioneering.” The kingdom is working with many countries on green and blue hydrogen
projects and those to capture carbon emissions, he said.
The green version of the fuel, which produces only water vapor when burned, is made with
renewable energy, typically solar and wind power. The blue type is produced from natural gas, with
the greenhouse gas emissions being captured so they can’t escape into the atmosphere. While
hydrogen is seen as crucial for the switch from oil and gas to cleaner fuels, the technology to make
it is still comparatively expensive.
State energy giant Saudi Aramco is leading the nation’s efforts with blue hydrogen. When it comes
to green hydrogen, Pennsylvania-based Air Products & Chemicals Inc. and local firm ACWA Power
International are building the world’s biggest such plant at Neom on the Red Sea coast.
Prince Abdulaziz said Saudi Arabia planned to convert half its power sector to gas, while the
remainder would be fueled by renewable energy. Presently, the kingdom burns plenty of oil in its
power plants.
The country is committed to carbon neutrality, he said, without giving a time frame for achieving
that. And reaching the goals set out in the Paris climate agreement will help the Saudi economy
become less reliant on oil, he said.

Saudi Arabia’s past efforts to boost renewable-energy production have met with little success.
Germany, a country not known for sunny weather, has become one of the world’s biggest producers
of solar energy, largely thanks to heavy government subsidies that helped spur the industry.
OPEC Vigilance
The kingdom is not worried about the impact of the latest coronavirus wave on oil demand, Prince
Abdulaziz said in a separate interview at the same conference.
“There is not yet anything that would make us more concerned,” he said.
Saudi Arabia and other members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries are
benefiting, he said, from Riyadh’s decision earlier this month to unilaterally cut crude output by 1
million barrels a day in February and March.
That move has helped raise Brent oil prices by more than 7% this year to around $55 a barrel.
The reduction in supplies by Saudi Arabia, as well as those announced by Iraq, will ensure that 1.4
million barrels of oil will be held back from the market each day in February, Prince Abdulaziz said.
The figure will rise to 1.85 million barrels daily in March, he said.
Several major economies, including Germany and China, have tightened lockdowns in recent
weeks. Despite that, oil inventories continue to fall, especially on ships, he said.
That’s “a good sign,” the minister said. “And I hope these lockdowns will not become more serious.
But we remain ready. Vigilance is our motto.”
‘Hydrogen Wars’
The European Union aims to push as much as 470 billion euros ($550 billion) toward hydrogen
infrastructure; China, Japan and South Korea will all likely use hydrogen to achieve recent pledges
to slash emissions; and Saudi Arabia plans a $5 billion hydrogen-based ammonia plant powered by
renewable energy.
“It’s countries going against countries to lock in market share,” said Gero Farruggio, head of
renewables at research firm Rystad Energy. “We call it ‘the hydrogen wars’ because of the way
governments are racing to subsidize these projects to be a leader.”
Farruggio and his colleagues tallied up over 60 gigawatts of hydrogen projects globally that would
be powered by renewable energy, with the majority of them announced this year. The major players
don’t include the U.S., where President Donald Trump has championed fossil fuels and moved to

withdraw the country from the Paris climate accord. The outcome of Tuesday’s presidential election
could determine whether the U.S. stays on the sidelines.
Using hydrogen as an energy source is a century-old idea. An electric machine to produce the gas
was installed in 1927 in Norway to help fertilizer production. Since then, it’s been used in zeppelins,
rocket engines and nuclear weapons.
Yet it does have drawbacks. Hydrogen is expensive to make without expelling greenhouse gases,
difficult to store and, not least, highly combustible.
Despite the inconsistent interest over the years, this era seems different, said David Hart, director
at the consultancy E4tech in Switzerland. He started studying hydrogen as a graduate student at
Imperial College London in the mid-1990s after seeing fuel cells on display at an environmental-
technology exhibition in Yokohama, Japan.
During the ensuing decades, he watched public interest in hydrogen rise to match his own, only to
fall back again into obscurity. The U.S. once touted hydrogen as a “freedom fuel” to break its
dependence on imported oil, but that strategy stalled. Hart considers hydrogen the “elegant ultimate
solution” — one fuel source with myriad applications.
“There were periods when nobody cared about climate change, so there weren’t the right drivers
for CO2 and fossil fuel to be pushed out,” Hart said. “But I had a stubborn belief that at some point
the conditions would be right. I had no idea if it would be five years or 50 years, but there was a
feeling.”

That time may be now. Hart’s expertise is in demand by Royal Dutch Shell Plc, BP Plc, Exxon Mobil
Corp., the U.K. government and automakers Toyota Motor Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co.
“A lot of the important steps and important positioning will happen before the end of the decade,”
Hart said. “It puts you in a much more difficult position and a more expensive position if you’re not
moving now.”
So far, Europe is moving aggressively. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put
the bloc’s Green Deal at the center of a 750 billion-euro spending plan to help the economy recover
from the pandemic.
At its heart is a goal to build 40 gigawatts of capacity to produce hydrogen from renewable sources
this decade. Member states are also writing their own blueprints, and the U.K. plans to release a
hydrogen strategy in coming months.
When Baden, the Danish executive, joined Green Hydrogen Systems in 2014 as chief executive
officer, the company was still testing its machines. For years, its only orders were for small
demonstration projects, mostly in Denmark. The company would deliver the electrolyzers, do trial
runs and then disassemble them.
That changed last year. At an industry fair in Hanover, Germany, executives from automotive
companies and wind turbine manufacturers wanted to learn how electrolyzers could help them store
some of their cheap, renewable electricity. Suddenly, orders were flooding in.
The company raised new capital last year from Danish venture fund Nordic Alpha Partners ApS to
help scale up production.
“I’ve wondered if all these big projects are for real,” Baden said about his order sheet. “And if we
didn’t know who was asking, we wouldn’t believe they would pull through.”
There are industries, mainly oil refining and chemicals production, that rely on hydrogen already.
But they typically use fossil fuels to make it, producing as much CO2 every year as the economies
of the U.K. and Indonesia combined, according to the International Energy Agency.

Hydrogen can be made without producing carbon emissions, either by using machines powered by
renewable energy or by capturing the pollution. Those methods minimize the carbon footprint
because hydrogen mainly produces water vapor when burned.
That’s getting attention in boardrooms as shareholders apply pressure on companies to clean up
their businesses.
Shell plans to produce hydrogen in the Netherlands for its refineries. Airbus SE wants to propel
planes with the gas. Steelmaker giant, ArcelorMittal SA, is working on a pilot project to replace fossil
fuels in Hamburg.
Climate-friendly production methods are costly, however, so their viability likely depends on
government policies penalizing emissions.
While Europe has the most expansive carbon trading system and leading plans to cut emissions,
China is coming fast. President Xi Jinping surprised the world by announcing that the country would
become carbon neutral by 2060.

China’s building a giant wind and solar farm to produce hydrogen in the Inner Mongolia region. The
biggest domestic oil refiner, Sinopec, said Oct. 29 it’s investing throughout the hydrogen supply
chain to become “a major player,” even though it’s already the biggest local producer.
Cockerill Jingli Hydrogen, a partnership between Suzhou Jingli Hydrogen Manufacturing Equipment
Co. and the closely held John Cockerill Group of Belgium, opened an 18,000-square meter factory
last year in China with the capacity to produce 350 megawatts of electrolyzers annually. That will
expand to 500 megawatts.
European manufacturers are trying to keep up. Green Hydrogen Systems, the U.K.’s ITM Power
Plc and Norway’s Nel ASA plan to open factories within a year having a combined annual output of
about 830 megawatts, more than six times the amount of machines shipped globally in 2018.
Thyssenkrupp AG said it already has 1,000 megawatts of electrolyzer production capacity. At
Siemens Energy AG, the output of its electrolyzers has been growing about 10 times every few
years, said Armin Schnettler, executive vice president for new energy business at Siemens.
Japan and South Korea are focusing on putting hydrogen in motion. While fuel-cell technology has
been overshadowed by electric passenger cars, hydrogen could be key to powering trucks, trains
and airplanes. Hyundai will export 64,000 hydrogen-powered trucks by 2030.
As for the U.S., it’s being lapped by most other entrants. The federal government hasn’t released a
road map for building a hydrogen economy, and it has diluted emissions standards for autos, power
plants and the fossil-fuel industry.
That’s putting the onus on the private sector. Mitsubishi Power Americas Inc. announced
agreements to develop plants in New York, Virginia and Ohio. NextEra Energy Inc. plans to run a
Florida power plant partially on hydrogen produced using solar power.
“There’s so much momentum from so many different places and applications,” Hart said. “This is no
longer about ‘What is a fuel cell?’ and ‘Is hydrogen safe?’ Now, it’s about ‘Where should we spend
our first hundreds of millions?’”

Egypt to Reopen LNG Plant In Push to Be Major European Supplier
Bloomberg - Salma El Wardany + NewBase
Egypt is set to boost exports of liquefied natural gas by restarting one of its two production plants.
The Damietta facility, which has been idled for eight years, will reopen by the end of February, Oil
Minister Tarek El-Molla said in an interview Wednesday with Dubai-based consultancy Gulf
Intelligence. It will process about 4.5 million tons of LNG a year and raise the nation’s capacity to
12.5 million tons, he said.
The return of Damietta and the country’s other plant -- Idku, whose exports have picked up after
dropping last year amid the coronavirus pandemic -- will mark a revival of Egypt’s LNG push. While
the Arab nation is a relative minnow -- accounting for about 1% of global LNG supplies in 2019 -- it
will become one of the top 10 exporters if it reaches full capacity, according to data compiled by
Bloomberg.
Bookings Up
“In 2020, the prices were very low and we were not able to export except for a few cargoes,” El-
Molla said. “But starting from October 2020 until now, we have already booked all our volumes to
be exported from the Idku plant up till the end of March.”
Egypt plans to use its position on Europe’s doorstep to become a major supplier to the continent,
which is transitioning away from dirtier fossil fuels such as oil and coal. Egypt will ship gas from its
own giant field of Zohr, as well as some imported from Israel.
Read more: Chevron to Invest in Pipelines to Send Israeli Gas to Egypt
LNG prices have recovered since late last year, thanks in part to the development and roll-out of
virus vaccines. Prices spiked in Asia this month because of a severe winter.
Damietta was idled in November 2012 amid a dispute over gas supplies between the government
and Union Fenosa Gas, a joint venture between Spain’s Naturgy Energy Group SA and Italy’s Eni
SpA.
In the next two weeks, Egyptian state firms EGPC and EGAS will offer onshore and offshore
exploration blocks for bids from energy companies, El-Molla said.

NewBase January 28-2021 Khaled Al Awadi
NewBase for discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE
Oil prices with Brent above 55$/B for last 3 weeks, despite all
Reuters + NewBase
Oil prices slid in early trade on Thursday on fresh worries about weakened fuel demand, after
England clamped down on travel and China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, also sought
to limit Lunar New Year trips to stem a surge in Covid-19 cases.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 12 cents, or 0.1%, to $52.72 a barrel at 0228
GMT, erasing some of Wednesday’s gain. Brent crude futures fell 16 cents, or 0.3%, to $55.65 a
barrel, after losing 10 cents on Wednesday.
“It looks like the market’s really paying attention to some of the demand concerns. The one which
has really taken over more so than others is what’s going on in China,” said Commonwealth Bank
Commodities Analyst Vivek Dhar.
Oil price special
coverage

The market had been supported earlier this week by a surprisingly large decline in U.S. crude
stockpiles in the week to Jan. 22, which analysts said was due to a pick up in U.S. crude exports
and a drop in imports.
Oil inventories dropped by 9.9 million barrels, the most since July, to their lowest since March, the
Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday. Gasoline stockpiles rose and distillate
fuel inventories declined amid slightly lower refinery runs.
But attention is now turning back to demand concerns amid a rise in Covid-19 infections with
contagious new variants.
“The economic backdrop remains uncertain as governments struggle to fight off the spread of
COVID-19,” ANZ Research said in a note.
England, in lockdown since Jan. 4, on Wednesday clamped down on travel, requiring people arriving
from high-risk Covid-19 countries to quarantine for 10 days and barring outbound trips for all but
exceptional reasons.
More concerning is China, analysts said, whose increasing fuel demand supported the market last
year. The country is now facing a rise in coronavirus cases as it heads into what is normally the
busiest travel season of the year, the Lunar New Year holiday.
The Chinese Ministry of Transport has forecast the number of trips that will be taken will be up 15%
from last year, when the virus was raging, but down 40% from 2019.
Flights out of Shanghai are already being cancelled, Dhar said.
“China – they were the ones supporting the market. If you have issues forming in China, that really
puts a brake on the demand story for now,” he said.

EIA expects gasoline and diesel prices to increase as U.S. economy recovers
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
National average motor gasoline and diesel prices in 2020 were the lowest since 2016: $2.17 per
gallon (gal) for gasoline and $2.55/gal for diesel, according to the U.S. Energy Information
Administration’s (EIA) Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update.
EIA expects that economic recovery and greater demand for transportation fuels will lead to higher
prices for gasoline and diesel in 2021 and 2022. In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA
expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.42/gal in 2021 and $2.43/gal in 2022 and on-
highway diesel prices to average
$2.71/gal in 2021 and $2.74/gal in
2022.
Demand for transportation fuels fell in
2020 primarily because of responses
to the COVID-19 pandemic. As the
vaccines for COVID-19 become more
widely distributed in 2021, EIA
expects the effects of the pandemic on
liquids fuels consumption to
moderate.
EIA forecasts rising demand for
gasoline and diesel in 2021 and 2022.

EIA expects annual average motor gasoline consumption, which fell by an estimated 13% in 2020,
to remain lower than 2019 levels through 2022.
EIA forecasts light-duty vehicle miles traveled will increase as both economic activity and
employment increase in 2021 and 2022. Long-term trends in improving vehicle fleet fuel economy
will continue to put downward pressure on U.S. gasoline demand.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
For distillate fuel oil demand (much of which is consumed as diesel), EIA expects 2022 consumption
to be nearly equal to 2019 levels. Annual distillate fuel oil consumption fell by an estimated 8% in
2020.
EIA forecasts that crude oil prices will remain lower than 2019 levels through 2022, contributing to
lower retail transportation fuel prices compared with the 2019 average. Because a barrel contains
42 gallons, each dollar-per-barrel change in the price of Brent crude oil tends to result in a 2.4-
cents-per-gallon change in the price of petroleum fuels (all else remaining equal).

Oil Supermajors to Show Worst Is Over With Commodities Rally
Bloomberg + NewBase
The Western world’s largest oil explorers are sailing into earnings season on the tailwind of strong
commodity prices after a 2020 they would rather forget.
With crude prices and refining margins buoyed by the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and the prospect
of an economic rebound, investors will be watching for signs in Big Oil’s fourth-quarter earnings that
higher crude prices will translate into much-needed increased cash flows this year.
Some optimism is already priced in. Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP Plc, both of which last year
weathered their worst stock-price slumps in decades, are up more than 10% in 2021. Still, the
supermajors are largely out of favor: The combined market value of Exxon, Chevron Corp., Royal
Dutch Shell Plc, Total SE and BP is now less than that of Tesla Inc.
The challenge for executives during conference calls with analysts and investors will be to strike the
right balance between paying back debt, funding shareholder payouts and financing growth plans
and energy-transition strategies.
Battery Power
Tesla's market value is more than the five Western oil majors combined
Here are five things to watch for when they post fourth-quarter earnings, which are scheduled as
follows:
1. Cash Generation
While higher commodity prices clearly benefit oil companies, the supermajors can be something of
a black box in translating those gains into cash flows. Trading, production outages, cargo timing,

refinery maintenance and fuel stockpiles can have an big impact on results. Investors will be
watching for signs that strengthening prices are bolstering cash reserves.
The big oil drillers should be “outsized beneficiaries of the continued reopening trade,” Morgan
Stanley analysts led by Devin McDermott wrote in a note to clients. But investors still need to see
“visible cash flow” before turning bullish in the medium term.
The Morgan Stanley analysts believe cash flow is the single top indicator of stock performance for
the supermajors as investors have largely given up on rewarding companies for boosting output,
expanding underground reserves or timely project construction. The metric has become increasingly
important as companies took on more debt.
Major Strain
Surging debt has increased investor focus on cash flow for the majors
2. Capital Allocation
All the supermajors aggressively cut spending in 2020 and investors will be wary of any moves to
flex this year’s outlays higher in response to increasing prices, particularly in U.S. shale fields.
“After years of underperformance, for upstream oil & gas, 2021 can best be described as the proof
of concept year,” Barclays Plc analysts led by Jeanine Wai wrote in a note. “The oil macro is
arguably serving up free cash flow on a silver platter if management teams can just stay disciplined.”
Chevron Chief Executive Officer Mike Wirth will likely face questions around his appetite for further
takeovers, given the company’s relatively strong balance sheet and recent $5 billion purchase of
Noble Energy Inc. Meanwhile, Exxon executives will once again be asked about their ability to
maintain the third-largest dividend in the S&P 500 Index.

For BP and Shell, it will all be about shareholder returns. Both companies slashed dividends last
year, drawing the ire of investors counting on generous payouts. Shell sought to woo some of them
back during the third quarter with a modest dividend increase and the promise of further hikes
as well as share buybacks as debt is reduced.
BP also has promised to return surplus cash to shareholders, but with more debt and bigger
commitments to low-carbon spending, that is further down on their priority list.
The European majors have all promised - to differing levels - to ramp up investments into cleaner
energy over the next decades. But oil and natural gas are still their bread and butter, meaning that
they will have to juggle money flowing into fossil fuels while also diverting capital into less-profitable
renewables and shareholder payouts.
3. Writedowns
Exxon’s fourth-quarter results will be marred by its biggest-ever writedown, which the company has
warned may be as large as $20 billion. For its part, Shell warned in December of another
multibillion-dollar impairment that will bring the tally for the year to more than $22 billion.
Shell expects more charges to come this year related to its global restructuring. The firm will cut as
many as 9,000 jobs over two years, and has already announced 1,600 workforce reductions in
its home countries of the Netherlands and U.K. Chief Financial Officer Jessica Uhl said in October
that severance costs tied to the revamp would likely amount to $1.5 billion to $2 billion.
4. Demand Outlook
With their giant networks of refineries, terminals and filling stations, the oil majors have a unique
insight into global demand patterns, the key signal for oil markets as the world copes with Covid-
19. Executives’ comments on anticipated customer behavior will be closely scrutinized with a view
to whether the recent price rally will be fleeting or the beginning of another commodity supercycle.
Of particular interest will be the outlook for liquefied natural gas in Asia, which saw a stunning price
spike in recent weeks due to weather-driven demand for heating fuel. Though many long-term LNG
contracts are benchmarked to the price of oil, the spot market is still an important indicator of
demand.

5. Restructuring
The crisis of 2020 was so severe that the majors’ quickly resorted to huge layoffs to reduce costs,
and now investors will want to see what kind of savings have been reaped. Exxon has already
indicated it will beat its target of reducing operating expenses by 15%, and 14,000 job cuts also
ought to lead to longer-term gains.
In Europe, Shell isn’t the only firm to slim down operations. BP said in June that it would reduce its
70,000-strong workforce by 10,000 to help ease $8 billion in annual “people costs.”
BP CEO Bernard Looney has stressed that for the company to transition into cleaner energy it
needs to be more nimble, and that has meant dismantling the traditional upstream and downstream
divisions, and stripping away entire layers of management.

NewBase Special Coverage
The Energy world – Jan-11- -2021
Chinese majors struggle to extend shale gas boom beyond 2025
Reuters - Chen Aizhu; Editing by Florence Tan and Himani Sarkar
Chinese oil majors will struggle to extend fast growth in shale gas production beyond 2025, as
complex geology and failure to draw in more investors make it expensive to develop the
unconventional resource.
A compressing station run by Sinopec is seen at Fuling shale gas field in Chongqing,
China December
That would be a blow to China’s efforts to cut its reliance on gas imports, presently 42% of total
consumption. It would also mean Beijing will have to step up development of other costly gas
resources in its remote northwest to meet demand, as the country steers away from coal to achieve
climate goals.
The world’s top energy consumer started producing shale gas in southwest Sichuan in 2012,
inspired by a U.S. shale push, and has doubled output in the past two years to 20 billion cubic
metres (bcm) - or about a tenth of its 2020 natural gas output.
But that is a fraction of its proven geological reserves of 1.8 trillion cubic meters by end-2019, and
far behind the United States which helped by a shale boom has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia
to become the world’s top oil producer.
State majors PetroChina
and Sinopec have pledged
to lift shale gas production
by 75% to 35 bcm in next
five years, but experts say
output could peak at
around 50-55 bcm by 2035
unless companies drill
deeper that requires
further technological
breakthrough.

China could produce 30 bcm in 2025 by developing recent discoveries like the Weirong project at
depths of 3,500-4,000 metres, but formations at a greater depth will be harder to access, noted Zou
Caineng, shale expert and deputy director of PetroChina’s Research Institute of Exploration and
Development.
It is tougher to apply technologies like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracking in Sichuan’s
mountainous terrain, versus the United States where fields are much larger and flatter, said Zhang
Xianhui, gas researcher at consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
It is also hard to replicate factory-model drilling, which helped America cut costs, in the densely
populated province.
“There are a lot of uncertainties beyond 2025 over further ramp up of shale gas production,” Zhang
said.
INVESTMENT
The failure to get investments is further stymieing China’s shale push. BP in 2019 became the last
international oil major to leave China’s shale scene, after a flurry of exits by global and local
explorers amid disappointing results despite ploughing in billions of dollars since 2012.
China’s majors, left with the responsibility to develop shale, have scooped up half a dozen
commercial projects in Sichuan such as Sinopec’s flagship Fuling and PetroChina’s Changning-
Weiyuan and Zhaotong.

But output at Fuling has plateaued while discoveries like Weirong and Luzhou are more costly to
develop, analysts said.
Sinopec, which developed China’s first major commercial find, declined to comment. PetroChina,
China’s top explorer, however has seen faster growth in output and more discoveries thanks to its
larger acreage.
PetroChina officials said exploration and production costs for shale gas are 20-30% higher than
conventional resources, state-run China Energy News has reported.
Beijing has since 2016 handed out over $2 billion in subsidies to the shale sector.
CONVENTIONAL RESOURCES
China will need to step up the development of conventional resources such as high-pressure, high-
temperature reservoirs in the Tarim basin, in the remote northwest Xinjiang region, or low-yielding
but shallower tight gas in Ordos basin, in the north, to fill any gap left by a slowing shale gas
expansion, analysts noted.
These may be better assets to develop from a capital allocation perspective, said Angus Rodger,
Woodmac’s research director.

IHS Markit consultant Zhu Kunfeng says it can be more costly sinking wells into projects like the
Keshen, 8,000-9,000 metre below the Gobi Desert, but per-unit cost will be lower owing to its much
sizeable output.
China’s shale gas output could peak around 2035 at 50 bcm, a Beijing-based government geologist
said. Parul Chopra, a Rystad Energy analyst, forecast a peak of near 55 bcm.
China has drilled under 2,000 shale gas wells, versus thousands in a single U.S. project. Chinese
shale gas production was equivalent to only 3% of U.S. 2020 output.
“Highly complex above and below-ground challenges mean that the Chinese shale gas journey will
continue to look very different from that in the U.S.,” Woodmac’s Zhang said.

NewBase Energy News 28 January 2021 - Issue No. 1398 call on +971504822502, UAE
The Editor:” Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services
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