Amulya Tuladhar's Reconstruction of Nepal's Population from 2011 census through first census of 1911, scholarly estimate of Prithvi Narayan Shah time population to First "Nepali Hominid" found 1.5 million years ago fossils and artefacts in Nawalparasi, Dang and Mahottari

1. Amulya Ratna Tuladhar
Professor of Environmental Sciences
WHEN NEPAL HAD ONLY 1,270
POPULATION…

2. Today:
26.6 million in 2011
POPULATION OF NEPAL

3. What was Nepal’s population 100 years ago?
5.6 million
POPULATION OF NEPAL

4. What was Nepal’s population before that?
Answer:
We do not know, for sure.
No census then.
Indirect methods.
POPULATION OF NEPAL

5. Can we reconstruct Nepal’s population,
indirectly,…when Prithvi Narayan Shah created
modern Nepal…. in 1768?
Yes… done by Mark Poffenberger for his PhD in
Berkeley, entitled, “Patterns of Change in the
Himalayas”.
POPULATION OF NEPAL

6. NEPAL POPULATION IN ~1750: 3 MILLION3 / 1 6 / 2 0 1 7
6

7. How to figure out Nepal’s population before Prithvi
Narayan’s time?
What was the growth rate of Nepal’s population from
Prithvi Narayan’s time (~1750) to first census of 1911,
or 161 yrs?
Answer = 0.38% per year (Harka Gurung, 1971)
POPULATION OF NEPAL

8. Question:
Can we assume that Nepal’s population
was growing at 0.38% per year before
Prithvi Narayan’s time in 1750?
POPULATION OF NEPAL

9. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
Year
Population
(Millions)
Average Annual
Growth Rate
Doubling
Time
1500 473 0.27 258
1800 945 0.42 163
1900 1,654 0.59 118
1920 1,860 0.61 113
1940 2,300 1.05 65

10. What was the world’s population growing at that
time… 1800-1920?
Answer = 0.57% per year
What was the world’s population growing at that
time… 1500-1800?
Answer = 0.23% per year
POPULATION OF NEPAL

11. Nepal 1750-1911 0.38%
World 1800-1920 0.57%
World 1500-1800 0.23%
Conclusion: World population growth rate was nearly
half for period of 300 years preceding 1800.
POPULATION OF NEPAL

12. Period of rapid population growth Began 1750
From 1750 to 1900 Average annual rate of growth: ~0.5%
From 1900 to 1950 Average annual rate of growth: ~0.8%
From 1950 to 2000 Average annual rate of growth: ~1.7%
Reasons for rapid growth
Advances in medicine
Advances in nutrition
GEOMETRIC GROWTH：
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH

13. In absence of solid data on Nepal, one choice is
to assume that Nepal’s population growth rate for
300 years before 1750 was nearly half that of
1750-1911.. I.e.
For 1750-1911 = 0.38 %
1450-1750 = 0.19 % (Half of 0.38%) ?
POPULATION OF NEPAL

14. 1830
1930
1960
1975
1987
1998
2009
2020
2033
2046
2100
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
13
12
14
Billionsofpeople
2-5 million
Years ago
7,000
BC
6,000
BC
5,000
BC
4,000
BC
3,000
BC
2,000
BC
1,000
BC
1
AD
1,000
AD
2,000
AD
3,000
AD
Year
4,000
AD
Fig. The world population explosion.

15. Prior to agriculture and domestication of animals
(~10,000 B.C.)
Average annual rate of growth: ~0.0001%
After the establishment of agriculture
300 million people by 1 A.D.
800 million by 1750
Average annual rate of growth: ~0.1%
GEOMETRIC GROWTH：
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH

16. For 1750-1911 = 0.38 %
1450-1750 = 0.19 % (Half of 0.38%) ?
Better take the average trend for broader time period, e.g.
Industrial Era 1750-2012 = 0.5-1.7%
Agricultural Era 10,000 BC-1750 = 0.1%
Stone Age, 2-3 millions yrs ago, – 10,000 BC = 0.0001%
POPULATION OF NEPAL

17. Strategy for Population Reconstruction:
Reduce population growth rate
systematically to achieve an average of 0.1%
for Agricultural Era and 0.0001% for Stone
Age unless better estimates are available.
POPULATION OF NEPAL

18. Systematic Population Growth Rate Reduction
0.38%
0.35%
0.30%
0.25%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10%
0.05%
0.01%
0.001%
0.0001%
POPULATION OF NEPAL

19. Next:
Use the systematically reduced population growth
rates to estimate the time to HALF the
population, with the formula:
½ = 72/r, where “r” = population change rate
POPULATION OF NEPAL

20. ½ = 72/r, where “r” = population change rate
r Half Time in
years
Date Reduction
(1750 Minus -190 yr
etc…)
0.38% 190 1560 AD
0.35% 205 1355 AD
0.30% 240 1115 AD
0.25% 288 827 AD
0.20% 360 467 AD
0.15% 480 13 BC
0.10% 720 733 BC
0.05% 1440 2173 BC
0.01% 7200 9373 BC
0.001% 72000 81373 BC
0.0001% 720000 801373 BC
0.0001% 720000 1521373 BC

21. Date
Time from
Present = 0 Total Population
2011 0 26620809
2001 10 23151423
1991 20 18491097
1981 30 15022839
1971 40 11555983
1961 50 9412996
1952 59 8256625
1941 70 6283649
1930 81 5532574
1920 91 5573788
1911 100 5,638,749
1750 261 3063300
1544 467 1500000
1304 707 750000
1020 991 325000
660 1351 162500
180 1831 81250
-540 2551 40625
-1980 3991 20312.5
-9180 11191 10156.25
-81180 83191 5078.125
-730000 732011 2536.0625
-1450000 1452011 1269.5312

22. 0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
1.0010.00100.001,000.0010,000.00100,000.001,000,000.0010,000,000.00
Population
Time from 1.45 m yr ago to 10 yr ago 2001
POPULATION OF NEPAL 1.45 MYA
TO 10 YA, 2001

23. MIGRATION PATTERNS IN NEPAL3 / 1 6 / 2 0 1 7
23

24. 0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
020004000600080001000012000
population
Time in years from present
HOMO SAPIENS NEPALI
POPULATION FROM
AGRICULTURAL ERA 12 K
YRS AGO TO FIRST
HISTORIC RECORD IN
CHANGU NEPAL

25. 991, 325,000
707, 750,000
467, 1,500,000
261, 3,063,300
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
020040060080010001200
Series1
POPULATION IN RECORDED
HISTORY 1020-1750
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
050100150200250300
Nepal Population 1750-1950

26. 0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
010203040506070
PopulationinModernNepal
Time in Years from Present = 0
POPULATION IN MODERN NEPAL
1950-2011

27. 1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
1.0010.00100.001,000.0010,000.00100,000.001,000,000.0010,000,000.00
Population
Time from 1.45 m yr ago to 10 yr ago 2001
POPULATION OF NEPAL 1.45 MYA TO 10
YA, 2010: BOTH AXIS LOGARITHMIC

28. Nepal has increased its population from 1,270 to
26,602,308 in 2011, from 1.45 million years ago when
Homo erectus, the hand axe maker that paleontologist
Gudrun Corvinus discovered in Dandi River in
Nawalparasi in 1980s to Homo sapiens, the modern man
who has developed Agricultural and Industrial
Revolution in the world.
CONCLUSION

29. The population density of Nepalese has
increased from:
0.009 people per km2,
1.45 million years ago
to
181/km2 in 2011
CONCLUSION