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Ne base 19 feruary 2018 energy news issue 1143 by khaled al awadi
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NewBase Energy News 19 February 2018 - Issue No. 1143 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi
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Ne base 19 feruary 2018 energy news issue 1143 by khaled al awadi
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Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 1 NewBase Energy News 19 February 2018 - Issue No. 1143 Senior Editor Eng. Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE UAE: ADNOC Signs Offshore Concession Agreement with Cepsa Abu Dhabi - MENA Herald: On behalf of the Abu Dhabi Government, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) today signed an agreement with Cepsa, a Spanish integrated oil and gas company, awarding it a 20% stake in Abu Dhabi’s offshore SARB and Umm Lulu concession. The choice of Cepsa, which is wholly-owned by Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company and operates across the entire oil and gas value chain, underpins ADNOC’s strategy to maximize returns from its resources, expand its Downstream business, and retain value for the UAE. The concession area is made up of two main fields under development, Umm Lulu, which is part of the former ADMA offshore concession, and SARB, as well as two smaller fields, Bin Nasher and Al Bateel. The ADMA concession has been split into three new concessions to maximise commercial value, broaden ADNOC’s partner base, expand technical expertise, and enable greater market access. Cepsa contributed a participation fee of AED 5.5 billion ($1.5 billion) to enter the concession, which also takes into account previous ADNOC investments in the concession area. ADNOC retains a majority 60% stake in the concession that will be operated by ADNOC Offshore, a subsidiary of ADNOC.
2.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 2 The agreement, which has a term of 40 years and an effective date of March 9, 2018, was signed by His Excellency Dr Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, ADNOC Group Chief Executive Officer, and Pedro Miró, Vice Chairman and CEO of Cepsa. H.E. Dr Al Jaber said: “This long-term agreement is a milestone in the development of Abu Dhabi’s integrated oil and gas sector and in the delivery of ADNOC’s 2030 smart growth strategy. This partnership ensures we continue to maximise value from our hydrocarbon resources, in line with the leadership’s directives, by capturing that value and financial return here in the UAE. “The agreement also reflects ADNOC’s new partnership approach, as we expand and diversify our partner base across ADNOC’s integrated value chain. Reflecting our strategic approach, we are also working with Cepsa to explore expansion opportunities in our downstream business, in the UAE and overseas, that will deliver competitive returns and long term growth opportunities for both parties, and for the UAE.” Cepsa, which has been operating in the energy sector since 1929, has businesses in over 20 countries across five continents. Its operations span exploration, production, refining, distribution and marketing, chemicals, gas and power, trading, bunkering and renewable energy sources. It is the world’s largest producer of Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) and also the leading producer of cumene and the second in phenol and acetone, thanks to its seven chemical plants, in Europe, Asia and the Americas. In 2016 it produced 35.4 million barrels of oil, distilled 158.7 million barrels of crude oil and sold 28.3 million tons of petroleum products. Miro said: “This concession agreement marks an important moment for Cepsa and our close relationship with ADNOC, with whom we are working with on a number of projects in the upstream, downstream and petrochemical sectors. It will add substantial reserves, in a concession with relatively low production cost, to our portfolio, and will enable us to make considerable strides towards achieving our objectives, as set out in our 2030 Strategic Plan”. In November 2017, ADNOC and Cepsa signed a framework agreement to evaluate a new world- scale Linear Alkyl Benzene complex in Ruwais, Abu Dhabi. LAB is the most common raw material in the manufacture of biodegradable household and industrial detergents. It is also used in house cleaners, fabric softeners, and soap bars. The companies plan to progress the basic engineering of the proposed LAB complex in 2018. It is envisaged the facility will be integrated with the Ruwais refinery complex, and will incorporate DETAL-PLUSTM technology.
3.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 3 According to Cepsa, the offshore concession agreement strengthens its energy model and long- term strategy, and is in line with the company’s forecasts as outlined in its Energy Outlook 2030 report for world demand for oil growth in the coming years. The agreement increases Cepsa's presence in the UAE, a strategic country for the company where it has operated in both exploration and production and bunker activities since 2013. The concession award is the first to be announced for the second of three new offshore concession areas, which have been created from the former ADMA offshore concession. On February 10, ADNOC announced the award of a 10% interest in Abu Dhabi’s separate offshore Lower Zakum concession to an Indian consortium, led by ONGC Videsh. In support of its expanded 2030 strategy, ADNOC plans to grow its crude refining capacity by 60 per cent and more than triple its petrochemical production, to 14.4 mtpa by 2025, through a staged expansion plan aimed at initially optimizing its existing assets to grow and diversify its products portfolio, as it delivers its strategic imperatives of a more valuable Upstream, more profitable Downstream and an economic and sustainable supply of gas. ADNOC is finalizing concession agreements with other potential partners for the remaining stakes in the SARB and Umm Lulu, the Lower Zakum and the Umm Shaif and Nasr concessions. The current partnership governing those deposits as a single block will expire on March 8. Adnoc's New Deals Abu Dhabi's state oil producer is working to award stakes in 3 blocks of fields Source: Adnoc company statements “The agreement reflects Adnoc’s new partnership approach, as we expand and diversify our partner base,” Chief Executive Officer Sultan Al Jaber said in the statement. Abu Dhabi holds about 6 percent of global crude reserves and produces most of the oil in the United Arab Emirates. While the U.A.E. is curbing output in an effort by two dozen nations to clear a global glut, the sheikhdom of Abu Dhabi plans to raise output capacity to 3.5 million barrels a day by the end of the year. Adnoc says it can pump about 3 million barrels daily with just under half of it coming from offshore deposits.
4.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 4 The producer is seeking to attract international partners that can contribute technology, financing or access to markets where oil demand is growing. Neither Cepsa nor the Indian companies that won a 10 percent stake at the Lower Zakum concession were partners in the emirate’s main producing fields. Abu Dhabi Offshore Investors in oil concession that expires next month Source: Company information Cepsa signed an agreement in November to work with Adnoc on a petrochemical plant and has an indirect holding in three smaller offshore deposits. India is the second-biggest buyer of U.A.E. crude behind Japan, according to Bloomberg tanker-tracking data. About CEPSA: A GLOBAL INTEGRATED COMPANY We are a global, integrated company operating across the entire oil and gas value chain. Mubadala Investment Company Group is our sole shareholder and we have over 90 years of experience. This has helped us to be one of the leading energy companies in Spain and to develop our businesses across five continents • EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION • REFINING • CHEMICALS • DISTRIBUTION AND MARKETING • NATURAL GAS • ELECTRICITY • TRADING Our technical excellence and ability to adapt drives us to bring the best of energy to every reality. Close to 10,000 experts from across the world make it possible relying on our values of safety, sustainability, continuous improvement, leadership, and solidarity. We are also recognized for our operational excellence and integration in all our businesses. This makes us a robust company, and we act in an efficient way in an ever changing environment.
5.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 5 Saudi Arabia Is Taking a Harder Line on Oil Prices Bloomberg -Grant Smith For decades, Saudi Arabia was the voice of moderation within OPEC, pushing back against the urging of members like Venezuela and Iran for higher oil prices. That role seems to be shifting. Thanks to OPEC-led production cuts, crude prices are double their level two years ago and bloated oil stockpiles are almost back to normal. Yet Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih wants to go further. Producers should keep cutting for the whole year, even if it causes a small supply shortage, Al- Falih said. “If we have to overbalance the market a little bit, then so be it,” he told reporters in Riyadh last week. When Success Isn't Enough OPEC has almost cleared the oil glut, but Saudi Arabia wants to go further Source: IEA The changing stance reflects the unprecedented pressures Saudi Arabia faces as Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman embarks on a program of sweeping economic reforms, including the potentially record-breaking initial public offering of its state oil company. “If you’re Mohammed Bin Salman, and trying to radically reinvent your country” then “you need a certain price to make it work,” said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets LLC. Previously content with oil at $60 a barrel, Al-Falih is now seeing $70 as the level where crude prices should trade, according to a person familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because the information was private. For the past year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia -- once fierce oil- market rivals -- have led a coalition of 24 producers in output cuts aimed at clearing the supply
6.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 6 glut unleashed by U.S. shale-oil drilling. Their objective of reducing oil inventories to their five-year average is finally in reach, but the two energy giants now suggest modifying that goal as they encourage fellow producers to keep supply constrained. Changing Targets The motivation could simply be that the Saudis “recognize the limitations of the inventory target” which has been skewed by years of oversupply, said Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas SA. To “err on the side of rebalancing” will ensure that the process is complete. Yet going beyond the initial targets, and keeping prices supported, also serves a number of internal purposes for the kingdom. Higher crude prices could help secure a valuation for Saudi Aramco closer to the $2 trillion envisaged by Prince Mohammed, a figure some analysts consider unrealistic. The extra revenues may also allow more gradual reductions in the generous subsidies and public- sector jobs that underpin the Saudi economy. As prices rebounded, Prince Mohammed already retreated on some attempts at austerity in the face of discontent last month, renewing state handouts as he tries to win popular support for longer-term transformation plans. The Saudis are seeking “a bridge price, to get you where you’re comfortable with deeper reform,” said RBC’s Croft. “If you’re willing to start a revolution in your country, and shake it to its core, is an oil price of $27 really where you want to be?” Dove to Hawk A more hawkish Saudi stance on prices is a sharp contrast with their attitude in previous years. In the 1970s, then-minister Sheikh Ahmad Zaki Yamani warned fellow OPEC members that their wave of oil-price hikes would backfire. He was proved right as consuming nations developed energy reserves in places like Alaska and the North Sea and the group’s market share stagnated for years.
7.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 7 When oil surged to almost $150 in 2008, attempts by Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi to cool the rally also faced opposition from other OPEC nations eager to enjoy soaring revenues. Prices slumped the following year during the Great Recession. The dynamic is showing some signs of reversing. After Brent crude shot above $70 in late January, Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh of Iran -- an OPEC producer that often used to agitate for higher prices -- said that $60 was sufficient. Risky Strategy Emboldened by the success of their strategy so far, the Saudis are now pursuing price levels that will ultimately lead to failure, said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity market research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. Crude’s recovery is stimulating record shale-oil output from the U.S., which is on track to surpass both Saudi Arabia and Russia as the world’s biggest crude producer this year, according to forecasts from the Department of Energy. A new flood of supply could easily send prices lower again, according to Weinberg. “The Saudis got overconfident,” Weinberg said. “Their goal has become higher prices, no matter the cost. But that won’t work in a market like this.”
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Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 8 Indonesia Hopes to Lure the World’s Top Oil Companies Bloomberg - Yoga Rusmana Indonesia will hold roadshows in the U.S. and Europe later this month to lure investments from the world’s top oil companies as the former OPEC member seeks to reverse a decline in oil and gas production. The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry will seek bids for as many as 40 oil and gas blocks this week, Deputy Minister Arcandra Tahar said in an interview in Jakarta on Wednesday. The areas being offered will include onshore and offshore assets and those not sold in tenders in the past three years, he said. Indonesia is trying to lure billions of dollars of investments into its oil industry to reduce dependence on imports as production slumps from its aging fields. The path has not been easy. The country, once a major crude oil shipper in Asia, only managed to sell five blocks out of 10 offered in a tender last year. The government is targeting industry’s “big boys” such as Chevron Corp., BP Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp., said Tahar, an oil and gas professional who lived in the U.S. for 20 years. Tahar and ministry officials plan to meet oil company executives within a week after the auction announcement scheduled for Monday. Their first stop will be Houston, followed by Paris and Singapore. “We will try to show them we have a new policy, a new fiscal regime, that’s going to be much better than the previous one,” Tahar said. “If you come and invest, the process will be simple and transparent. The message need to be conveyed clearly and loudly.” The former member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has switched to a so- called gross-split scheme for explorers from a production-sharing contract. The new regulation provides more certainty, flexibility and transparency for oil investors, Tahar said. His ministry has
9.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 9 scrapped more than 50 regulations related to employment to refinery permits this year as it targets $200 billion in new investments over the next decade. Indonesia Scraps More Regulations to Lure Investments in Energy “With gross split, there is a certainty that you yourself count the split,” Tahar said. “If you are in early production, we are going to give better incentives, and phasing out over the cumulative production.” Explorers will get greater incentives if crude price is low and it will be reduced when prices move higher, he said. Chevron, the second-biggest U.S. oil explorer, which has been operating in Indonesia for more than 90 years, is the country’s largest producer of crude oil, delivering approximately 40 percent of the national production from its operations in Sumatra and Kalimantan, according to its website. Exxon runs the Cepu block in Java.
10.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 10 OPEC Considers Moving the Goalposts - Here's Where They Might Go Grant Smith After a year of production cuts, OPEC and Russia are finally near their goal of shrinking the world’s swollen oil inventories. So why are they planning to change their target? The answer lies somewhere between the murky and incomplete nature of oil data and the competing interests within the producers’ group. The 24-country alliance wants to reduce oil stockpiles to their five-year average, a goal that is almost at hand according to figures from the International Energy Agency. Yet Saudi Arabia and Russia now say that metric is flawed -- distorted by years of excessively high supplies and patchy data outside developed economies. Choosing a different measure of success could further reinforce the need for supply curbs to continue for the whole of 2018 -- something Saudi Arabia is keen to ensure as it prepares the historic initial public offering of its state oil company. Other methods might indicate the rebalancing of the market is already complete, potentially allowing some producers to end their self-imposed restraint. Here are some of the possible options: Take Cover Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih has said that, rather than just comparing inventory levels to their average, OPEC should consider how quickly they’re likely to be consumed. This gauge, known as forward demand cover, measures inventories in terms of the number of days they will last. OPEC Near the Finish Line Using "forward demand cover," inventories are almost back to normal
11.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 11 There are good reasons for considering that measure -- it better reflects how consumption has grown over the past few years -- but wouldn’t necessarily back Al-Falih’s insistence that producers stick with the cuts all year. Inventories in developed economies equated to about 60.6 days worth of demand in December, according to IEA data, which is already back in line with the five-year average. A Global Picture OPEC hasn’t said it’s exclusively targeting inventories in the developed world, but in reality there’s little reliable data for anywhere outside the 34 countries that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Those stockpiles were 52 million barrels above the five- year average in December, according to the IEA. It’s harder, but possible, to compile a global picture. Could data from major consumers like China and India tell a different story? OPEC's Mission Already Accomplished Citigroup says global oil stocks are back to average levels Source: Citigroup According to Citigroup Inc., a global measure actually shows OPEC’s mission is already accomplished. Adding non-OECD countries including Saudi Arabia and Brazil, as well as the crude stored at sea on tankers, to the mix shows inventories are already at their five-year mean, the bank said.
12.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 12 Turn Back the Clock The oil market is emerging from a long period of oversupply that drove prices to 12-year lows and lifted U.S. crude inventories to the highest level in decades. That means any calculation of a five- year average “is overly weighted by three years of excessive inventory,” according to Saudi Arabia’s Al-Falih. The average has been rising steadily throughout the price slump. For January, when the period included in the calculation switches from 2012-2016 to 2013-2017, the number will jump by so much that it almost converges with current stockpile levels -- a rather hollow victory in OPEC’s quest to eliminate the glut. Unfinished Business Compared against an earlier average period, oil stockpiles still look high Source: IEA Some of that excess would be filtered out by comparing inventories to an earlier period before the surplus emerged. Using 2011-2015 would indeed justify Al-Falih’s argument that OPEC has some way to go before the job is done.
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Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 13 NewBase February 19 - 2018 Khaled Al Awadi NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE Oil Finds Relief in Weaker Dollar as Equities Recover From Rout Bloomberg + NewBase Futures rose as much as 1.4 percent in New York after advancing 4.2 percent last week, propped up by a relief rally that helped U.S. equities cap their best week in five years. Gains were also driven by a weaker greenback, which boosts the allure of commodities priced in the currency. While U.S. drillers lifted the number of rigs exploring for oil to the highest since April 2015, 51 rigs have been added so far in 2018, down from 72 a year earlier. While crude has clawed back some of its losses following a risk-asset rout earlier this month, it’s still struggling to recover to its recent high in January as concerns continue to loom over a resurgence in U.S. output. Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia are looking at ways to “institutionalize” their cooperation beyond the end of a supply-cut deal later this year, according to the United Arab Emirates. “In terms of volume, U.S. output is escalating but the rate of increase isn’t as fast compared to the previous year, leaving room for crude to rebound at a time when demand is still robust,” said Ahn Yea Ha, a commodities analyst at Kiwoom Securities Co. “Fundamentally speaking, there’s still upward pressure on oil as the global equities rout and a stronger dollar lasted just temporarily.” West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose as much as 83 cents to $62.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and was at $62.49 at 1:23 p.m. in Seoul. Prices climbed $2.48 to $61.68 last week, after plunging almost 10 percent a week earlier. Total volume traded was about 93 percent above the 100-day average. Oil price special coverage
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Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 14 Brent for April settlement added 55 cents to $65.39 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract rose $2.05, or 3.3 percent, to $64.84 last week. The global benchmark traded at a $3.05 premium to April WTI. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the currency against 10 major peers, dropped 1.3 percent last week, almost erasing gains over the previous two weeks. In equity markets, the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both ended last week up by more than 4 percent. Working rigs drilling for American crude rose by seven last week, bringing the total to 798, according to Baker Hughes. The Permian basin, located in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico, is forecast to pump a record 2.99 million barrels a day next month. If the shale region were a member of OPEC, it would be the group’s fourth-largest producer. U.S. drillers add oil rigs for fourth consecutive week: Baker Hughes U.S. energy companies added oil rigs for a fourth week in a row even though crude pulled back from three-year highs over the past couple of weeks as more drillers boost their 2018 spending plans. Drillers added seven oil rigs in the week to Feb. 16, bringing the total count up to 798, the highest level since April 2015, General Electric Co’s Baker Hughes energy services firm said in its closely followed report on Friday.
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Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 15 The U.S. rig count, an early indicator of future output, is much higher than a year ago when 597 rigs were active as energy companies have continued to boost spending since mid-2016 when crude prices began recovering from a two-year crash. U.S. crude futures traded around $62 a barrel this week, down from late January when prices rose to their highest since December 2014. That compares with averages of $50.85 in 2017 and $43.47 in 2016. Looking ahead, futures were trading around $60 for the balance of 2018 and $55 for calendar 2019. In anticipation of higher prices in 2018 than 2017, U.S. financial services firm Cowen & Co said 41 of the roughly 65 exploration and production (E&P) companies they track, including Occidental Petroleum Corp, have already provided capital expenditure guidance indicating a 10 percent increase in planned spending over 2017. There were 975 oil and natural gas rigs active on Feb. 16. On average, there were 876 rigs available for service in 2017, 509 in 2016 and 978 in 2015. Most rigs produce both oil and gas. The U.S. Energy Information Administration this week projected U.S. production in the biggest shale basins would rise to a record high of 6.8 million barrels per day in March, representing about two-thirds of total U.S. oil output. The EIA expects total U.S. production will rise to 10.6 million bpd in 2018 and 11.2 million bpd in 2019, up from 9.3 million bpd in 2017. The current all-time U.S. output annual peak was in 1970 at 9.6 million bpd, according to federal energy data.
16.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 16 NewBase Special Coverage News Agencies News Release February 19-2018 As Oil Stocks Drain, OPEC Searches for Its Next Fig Leaf Inventories give only a partial picture of balance in the market. By Julian Lee There is no doubt that the output cuts made by OPEC and its friends, aided by a collapse in production from group member and historic quota cheat Venezuela, have drained a lot of excess oil out of the supply chain. Tankers floating full of crude off the coasts of Iran and South Africa have disappeared and total U.S. stockpiles are close to their lowest in almost three years. Draining the Tanks Total U.S. oil stockpile, including the SPR, is close to its lowest in three years as OPEC+ output cuts bite Source: Bloomberg, EIA But now their goal is within sight, or it may already have been passed. And that creates problems for the producer group. If inventories are back where they say they want them, but prices haven't recovered as much as they would like, they need to find a way to justify prolonging the cuts to boost their revenues. Since November 2016, OPEC has been able to get away with the idea of trying to return oil inventories to a five-year average level. That seems a very clear and precise target, but, as I wrote last month, it isn't. And at this point, it's no longer possible to maintain the charade. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee set up to oversee the OPEC+ output deal will discuss the inventory target when it meets in Saudi Arabia in April. My Bloomberg News colleague Grant Smith has written a very clear explanation of how they might shift the inventory goalposts. The trouble is, that some of the tweaks they might look at could end up indicating they have already overshot their target. Inventories can be measured in many different ways: the simple volume of oil in storage, the number of days of demand that volume could meet, or, like the International Energy Agency's emergency stock-holding obligations, the number of days of imports they could cover.
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Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 17 The choice of the period over which to average "normal" inventory levels will also have a big impact on determining when the target has been reached. Five Years Five-year average OECD inventory levels have risen by 160 million barrels, or 7 percent, in the past three years Source: IEA Note: Five-year average OECD commercial stockpiles of crude and refined products Comments made by oil ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia last week suggest that the group and friends will land on a clarification of their oil inventory goal. But a less-widely reported comment by Khalid Al-Falih suggests that the target may shift away from just focusing on inventory levels. Finding reliable data for inventories remains a challenge, Al-Falih told reporters in Riyadh on Feb. 14. Fixing on a period of "normal" inventory levels to target, or measuring in terms of days of cover, won't solve that problem. OPEC's real problem is not whether to measure in days or in barrels, but whether it can ever adequately count inventories outside the developed countries of the OECD. And it is arguably these other countries that really matter. They already use over half the oil consumed worldwide and are expected to account for 80% of demand growth this year. The Bigger Half Non-OECD countries use more than half the world's oil and OPEC expects them to account for 80 percent of global oil demand growth in 2018
18.
Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 18 Source: Bloomberg, OPEC But Al-Falih also said that looking at inventories alone isn't sufficient to assess market balance. Could this presage a shift in the group's target away from one based on inventories? Perhaps not immediately, but it does suggest that, as inventory data show the job maybe nearly done, producers could be starting to look for another fig leaf to justify extending the deal. That could be as simple as targeting an earlier five-year average. But what really matters to the group is the revenue they generate from producing and selling the black stuff. Pursuing an overt revenue target, or its close cousin, a price target, is probably not feasible. Not only would it open them up to accusations of acting as a cartel, but each of the 24 members of the expanded OPEC+ group has different revenue needs and a different break-even price. The group has been very successful in boosting oil prices since the middle of last year, and as they have risen, so have producers' assessments of the "right" level. When OPEC and friends met last May, several ministers were talking quite casually about $50 a barrel as a good price for crude. No longer. Traditional price hawk Iran now finds itself at the dove-ish end of the spectrum, with oil minister Bijan Zanganeh seeing $60 as a "good" price for oil. Others have more ambitious targets. Setting a clear price target is unlikely, but don't expect OPEC and friends to rush to open the production taps, even if inventory levels suggests they should. They are not yet making as much as they want from their oil and will now embark on a process of finding another metric that will tell them that the time is not yet right to boost supply.
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Copyright © 2018
NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 19 NewBase For discussion or further details on the news below you may contact us on +971504822502, Dubai, UAE The Editor :”Khaled Al Awadi” Your partner in Energy Services NewBase energy news is produced daily (Sunday to Thursday) and sponsored by Hawk Energy Service – Dubai, UAE. For additional free subscription emails please contact Hawk Energy Khaled Malallah Al Awadi, Energy Consultant MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA Emarat member since 1990 ASME member since 1995 Hawk Energy member 2010 Mobile: +97150-4822502 khdmohd@hawkenergy.net khdmohd@hotmail.com Khaled Al Awadi is a UAE National with a total of 28 years of experience in the Oil & Gas sector. Currently working as Technical Affairs Specialist for Emirates General Petroleum Corp. “Emarat“ with external voluntary Energy consultation for the GCC area via Hawk Energy Service as a UAE operations base , Most of the experience were spent as the Gas Operations Manager in Emarat , responsible for Emarat Gas Pipeline Network Facility & gas compressor stations . Through the years, he has developed great experiences in the designing & constructing of gas pipelines, gas metering & regulating stations and in the engineering of supply routes. Many years were spent drafting, & compiling gas transportation, operation & maintenance agreements along with many MOUs for the local authorities. He has become a reference for many of the Oil & Gas Conferences held in the UAE and Energy program broadcasted internationally, via GCC leading satellite Channels. NewBase : For discussion or further details on the news above you may contact us on +971504822502 , Dubai , UAE NewBase February 2018 K. Al Awadi
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 20 Thank you for sharing with us your comments and thoughts on the above issue, similarly we would like to share with our daily publications on Energy news via own NewBase Energy News - call us for details khdmohd@hawkenergy.net Your Energy Consultant for the GCC area Khaled Al Awadi
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NewBase www.hawkenergy.net Edited by Khaled Al Awadi – Energy Consultant All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, redistributed, or otherwise copied without the written permission of the authors. This includes internal distribution. All reasonable endeavours have been used to ensure the accuracy of the information contained in this publication. However, no warranty is given to the accuracy of its content. Page 21 For Your Recruitments needs and Top Talents, please seek our approved agents below
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