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Comments on Decentralization Reform in
Ukraine
Tymofiy Mylovanov
May 30, 2014
1
Some Background: Conflict in
Ukraine
2
3
The number of protests monthly
October 2009 – December 2013
4
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Oct'09
Dec'09
Feb'10
Apr'10
Jun'10
Aug'10
Oct'10
Dec'10
Feb'11
Apr'11
Jun'11
Aug'11
Oct'11
Dec'11
Feb'12
Apr'12
Jun'12
Aug'12
Oct'12
Dec'12
Feb'13
Apr'13
Jun'13
Aug'13
Oct'13
Dec'13
4
Protest issues
11
2011 2012 2013
2013 before
Maidan (until
20.11)
2013 after
Maidan (from
21.11)
Socioeconomic 1374 60% 1546 43% 2062 43% 1926 56% 136 10%
Ideological 558 25% 858 24% 1740 36% 871 25% 869 62%
Political 564 25% 1249 34% 1727 36% 924 27% 803 58%
Civic rights 391 17% 617 17% 1644 34% 926 27% 718 52%
2277 3636 4822 3428 1394
5
Regional distribution of protests
7
2010 2011 2012 2013
2013 before
Maidan
(until 20.11)
2013 after
Maidan
(from 21.11)
Centre 389 17% 480 21% 633 17% 929 19% 637 19% 292 21%
Crimea 170 7% 160 7% 199 5% 211 4% 161 5% 50 4%
East 503 22% 573 25% 696 19% 903 19% 683 20% 220 16%
Kyiv 422 18% 406 18% 638 18% 805 17% 582 17% 223 16%
South 284 12% 225 10% 597 16% 774 16% 621 18% 153 11%
West 534 23% 430 19% 867 24% 1187 25% 735 21% 452 33%
Total 2302* 100% 2274 100% 3630 100% 4809 100% 3419 100% 1390 100%
* The “nationwide” events (i.e., those that were impossible to locate in a particular settlement) are not included in the
regional distribution
6
The number of protests per 1 million of
de facto population in regions
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013
Center
Crimea
East
Kyiv
South
West
Ukraine
7
A Flaw in Unkrainian Constitution?
8
9
10
Renewal / Selection of politicians
• Myerson (2006) - ex-post selection
• Bernheim and Kartik (2010) - ex-ante selection
11
Decentralization initiative
12
Decentralization
• Government decentralization reform
• Academic decentralization initiative, February 24
– call for academic input
– Roger Myerson and Daron Acemoglu, Gerard Roland, Daniel
Treisman, Sergei Guriev, Paul Rodrik Grergory
– signed by more than 100 academics
13
Benefits of decentralization
14
Benefits of decentralization
• better local economic decisions
• counterintuitively, lower stakes in secession
• selection and training of national-level politicians
15
Focal issue
• Decentralization as means of preventing dictatorship
• Solution to the problem of non-existing institutions
16
Risks of decentralization
17
Risks
• Recentralization
• Capture of regions
• Corruption
• Secession pressure / ethnic or regional conflict
• Strengthening regional parties
18
Challenges
19
Recentralization
• Article 118 of the proposed constitution deals with decen-
tralization
– extremely vague
– keeps state administrations and creates local executive
councils
– details to worked out by law
• Financial resources?
20
Legitimacy
• The process is as important as substance of the reform
– The reform will not be backrolled only if it is understood
and protected by public
– Lower level politicial leaders, with ability to mobilize sup-
port, should feel ownership over the reform
– Convention and endorsements
21
Thank you!
22
Evidence?
23
Corruption
• ok if free press (Leesman and Markwardt 2009)
• not ok if more complex governing structure (Fan, Lin, and
Treisman 2009)
• Ukraine benchmark?
24
Safeguards against recentralization
• federalization provides a protective barrier (Inman 2008)
25
Strong national parties
• strong national parties are the key for
– smaller interregional conflict (Brancati 2006)
– better local public goods (Enikolopov and Zhuravskaya
2007)
• Ukraine - party of regions?
26
Decentralization as conflict mitgation strategy
• ethno-federalis works ok (Charron 2009)
• regional level inequality leads to civil conflict (Deiwiks, Ced-
erman, and Gleditsch 2012)
• armed clientilism (Eaton 2006)
• depends on what kind of decentralization (Siegle and O’Mahony
2010)
– increased support of local leaders, local expenditure, and
employment - good
– higher local taxes and higher local bureaucracies - bad
27

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Mylovanov may2014

  • 1. Comments on Decentralization Reform in Ukraine Tymofiy Mylovanov May 30, 2014 1
  • 3. 3
  • 4. The number of protests monthly October 2009 – December 2013 4 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Oct'09 Dec'09 Feb'10 Apr'10 Jun'10 Aug'10 Oct'10 Dec'10 Feb'11 Apr'11 Jun'11 Aug'11 Oct'11 Dec'11 Feb'12 Apr'12 Jun'12 Aug'12 Oct'12 Dec'12 Feb'13 Apr'13 Jun'13 Aug'13 Oct'13 Dec'13 4
  • 5. Protest issues 11 2011 2012 2013 2013 before Maidan (until 20.11) 2013 after Maidan (from 21.11) Socioeconomic 1374 60% 1546 43% 2062 43% 1926 56% 136 10% Ideological 558 25% 858 24% 1740 36% 871 25% 869 62% Political 564 25% 1249 34% 1727 36% 924 27% 803 58% Civic rights 391 17% 617 17% 1644 34% 926 27% 718 52% 2277 3636 4822 3428 1394 5
  • 6. Regional distribution of protests 7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 before Maidan (until 20.11) 2013 after Maidan (from 21.11) Centre 389 17% 480 21% 633 17% 929 19% 637 19% 292 21% Crimea 170 7% 160 7% 199 5% 211 4% 161 5% 50 4% East 503 22% 573 25% 696 19% 903 19% 683 20% 220 16% Kyiv 422 18% 406 18% 638 18% 805 17% 582 17% 223 16% South 284 12% 225 10% 597 16% 774 16% 621 18% 153 11% West 534 23% 430 19% 867 24% 1187 25% 735 21% 452 33% Total 2302* 100% 2274 100% 3630 100% 4809 100% 3419 100% 1390 100% * The “nationwide” events (i.e., those that were impossible to locate in a particular settlement) are not included in the regional distribution 6
  • 7. The number of protests per 1 million of de facto population in regions 8 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 Center Crimea East Kyiv South West Ukraine 7
  • 8. A Flaw in Unkrainian Constitution? 8
  • 9. 9
  • 10. 10
  • 11. Renewal / Selection of politicians • Myerson (2006) - ex-post selection • Bernheim and Kartik (2010) - ex-ante selection 11
  • 13. Decentralization • Government decentralization reform • Academic decentralization initiative, February 24 – call for academic input – Roger Myerson and Daron Acemoglu, Gerard Roland, Daniel Treisman, Sergei Guriev, Paul Rodrik Grergory – signed by more than 100 academics 13
  • 15. Benefits of decentralization • better local economic decisions • counterintuitively, lower stakes in secession • selection and training of national-level politicians 15
  • 16. Focal issue • Decentralization as means of preventing dictatorship • Solution to the problem of non-existing institutions 16
  • 18. Risks • Recentralization • Capture of regions • Corruption • Secession pressure / ethnic or regional conflict • Strengthening regional parties 18
  • 20. Recentralization • Article 118 of the proposed constitution deals with decen- tralization – extremely vague – keeps state administrations and creates local executive councils – details to worked out by law • Financial resources? 20
  • 21. Legitimacy • The process is as important as substance of the reform – The reform will not be backrolled only if it is understood and protected by public – Lower level politicial leaders, with ability to mobilize sup- port, should feel ownership over the reform – Convention and endorsements 21
  • 24. Corruption • ok if free press (Leesman and Markwardt 2009) • not ok if more complex governing structure (Fan, Lin, and Treisman 2009) • Ukraine benchmark? 24
  • 25. Safeguards against recentralization • federalization provides a protective barrier (Inman 2008) 25
  • 26. Strong national parties • strong national parties are the key for – smaller interregional conflict (Brancati 2006) – better local public goods (Enikolopov and Zhuravskaya 2007) • Ukraine - party of regions? 26
  • 27. Decentralization as conflict mitgation strategy • ethno-federalis works ok (Charron 2009) • regional level inequality leads to civil conflict (Deiwiks, Ced- erman, and Gleditsch 2012) • armed clientilism (Eaton 2006) • depends on what kind of decentralization (Siegle and O’Mahony 2010) – increased support of local leaders, local expenditure, and employment - good – higher local taxes and higher local bureaucracies - bad 27