The document discusses technology trends affecting the ICT sector and their impact on the industry. The main trends are broadband, wireless technologies, convergence of services across devices and platforms, the rise of smartphones and digital content. This is leading to changes in industry revenues, structures and business models. Operators are offering bundles to boost revenues and adapting through new services, restructuring or mergers to address these technology changes.

1. Analyzing the ICT Mar ket :
Technology and Trends and the
Impact of Technology on the
Mar ket
Carlo M. Rossotto, Tim Kelly
Cairo, March 10, 2009

2. Technology Trends and
the ICT Market
Main Technology Trends Affecting the ICT Sector
 Broadband
 Wireless Technologies
 Convergence
 Handsets
 Digital Content
How technology is affecting the ICT industry
 Revenues and Industry Structure
 Business Model
 Firm Specialization
 Product Differentiation
2

3. Technology Trends and
the ICT Market
Main Technology Trends Affecting the ICT Sector
Broadband
Wireless Technologies
Convergence
Handsets
Digital Content
3

4. Main Technology Trends in
ICT
Broadband Technologies I : Throughput and Range
120
100
80
Peak Throughput
(Download), (Mbps)
60
Range (Km)
40
20
0
ADSL ADSL 2+ WiFi WiMax VDSL
Source: Pyramid Research. 4

5. Main Technology Trends in
ICT
Broadband Technologies II : Throughput and Range
3000 25
2500
20
2000
15
Peak Throughput
(Download), (Mbps)
Mbps
Km
1500
Range (Km)
10
1000
5
500
0 0
FTTP (BPON-ATM) FTTP (BPON- FTTP (GPON- FTTP (GPON-
Ethernet) Ethernet/GEM) Ethernet/ATM)
Source: Pyramid Research. Note: shared throughput 5

6. Technology Trends and
the ICT Market
Wireless Technologies: main trends
• Trend 1. Growth of 3G+
3G+ users to increase at a 38% CAGR from 2008 to 2013 and to
account for 46% of all 5.9Bn mobile subscriptions in 2013 (Pyramid Research)
• Trend 2. Fixed wireless for development
31 African countries have deployed CDMA2000 1X Networks (ITU)
833,000 customers of W-CDMA in Africa (GSM Association)
• Trend 3. Wireless broadband for development
EVDO growth in Africa
Country Operator Download Speed Monthly Subscription (US$)
Nigeria Starcomms 300-600 kbps 124
Rwanda Rwandatel 400-700 kbps 62
Morocco Wana 128-1000 kbps 24
Sudan Canar Up to 2 Mbps 29
Angola Movicel Up to 1 Mbps 257
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Source: ITU

7. Technology Trends and
the ICT Market
Convergence
• Convergence across technologies: multiple platforms are consolidating into a single IP-
based platform, allowing voice, data and video consumption. The same digital content
can be accessed and delivered across multiple platforms.
• Convergence across services: bundles of services, double-play and triple-play (Orange,
for example, reported that 11% of its ADSL subscribers were also triple-play subscribers in
2007, up from 2.7% in 2005, Pyramid Research).
• Convergence across devices: Multiservice connectivity on a single end-user device. Dual-
mode (WLAN-mobile) handsets and 3G-embedded computing devices has expanded over
the past two years.
Operators still look at the bottom line when
they consider diversify across technologies and services
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8. Technology Trends and
the ICT Market
Broadband-enabled devices
Dual-mode (WLAN-mobile) Devices
PCs with embedded 3G capabilities
 (50% of laptops by 2010; Pyramid Research)
iPhone and Blackberry
Smartphone unit sales globally to grow at a CAGR of 17%, or
nearly three times as fast as the total handset market, to reach 313m
in 2013. Smartphones from 8% of total handsets in 2008 to 18% of total
handsets in 2013 (Pyramid Research)
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9. Technology Trends and
the ICT Market
Digital content
Computer and video games1 Film and video2 Music3 Advertising4
Global revenues (offline + online) USD 37.5 billion USD 84 billion USD 30 billion USD 445 billion
Growth of market (offline + online) 19% (2006-07) 4% (2006-07) -6% (2006-07) 5% (2006-07)
Global online revenues USD 6.5 billion Marginal USD 4.7 billion USD 31 billion
Increasingly all new games are
Internet-enabled
Growth of online market 28% (2006-07) >100% (2006-07) 27% (2006-2007) 28% (2006-07)
Share of online in total 17% but increasingly all new games Marginal 16% 7.50%
are Internet-enabled
(under 1% in most markets)
Unauthorised downloading of Low for Internet-enabled games but Medium and growing High n.a.
online content and its impact growing quickly
(i.e. ”server piracy”)
Source: OECD 2007
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10. Technology Trends and the
ICT Market
Digital content and Internet traffic
Global consumer Internet traffic 2005-11 in million terabytes/month
3.5
3
P2P
I n te rn e t vi d e o ( PC, TV,
co m m u n i ca ti o n )
2.5 We b , Ema i l , F TP
On l i n e ga m e s
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
20 05 2007 20 09 20 11 10
Source: OECD 2007

11. Technology Trends and
the ICT Market
Digital Content and User Created Content
Blogs
Wikis
Photo-sharing
Podcasting
Social Network Sites
Virtual Worlds
File-Sharing P2P
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12. How Technology is
affecting the Industry
Revenues and Industry Structure: A fast-changing picture
• PSTN revenues sharply down. less in global PSTN revenue down $103bn in 2013 than in
2008 (Pyramid)
• Mobile subscriber growth rates decelerating in most regions, with penetration rates
hovering around the 80-120% range (CAGR of 8% for mobile subscriptions in 2008-2013)
(Pyramid)
• Fixed and mobile broadband lines to increase threefold between 2008 and 2013, from
964m to 3.3bn (Pyramid)
• Internet access will generate nearly 55% of total fixed revenue in 2013.
• Mobile data to grow at a 16% CAGR from 2008 to 2013, making up 34% of global mobile
revenue in 2013.
• Revenue per fixed broadband line, currently at an average of $33, are to decline (CAGR
of -5%). FTTx has highest ARPS — 2X cable or DSL in 2008
Source: Pyramid Research
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13. How Technology is
affecting the Industry
Revenues and Industry Structure: A fast-changing picture
• Egypt is the seventh fastest growing broadband market in the world, with over 30%
compounded growth rate
• Ten fastest growing broadband markets are in Asia, MNA, Latin America and Africa
• Operators boasting the highest data ARPS are those with the highest percentage of
subscribers using 3G-enabled devices.
• Messaging revenues (email, SMS and MMS) were 58% of mobile data revenues in 2008
(projected 44% in 2013)
• Web access was 21% of mobile data revenues in 2008 (projected 28% in 2013)
• The rest is applications : music (high growth rate), games, graphic, ringtones…
Data Revenues as a % of total mobile revenues
• Source: Pyramid Research
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007 13
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

14. How Technology is affecting the
Industry
Digital content development and on-line
business models
–Advertisement (e.g. 99% of Google revenues)
–Voluntary donations (e.g. blogs)
–Pay-per-view and pay-per-item (e.g. IPTV model)
–Licensing content to third parties
–Online sales (e.g. portals Amazon, eBay)
–Sale of user data, clickstream analysis
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15. Technology Trends and
the ICT Market
• Convergence may destroy as much value as it creates by bringing in new
sources of revenue (Pyramid)
• Bundles, access to digital content and advertisement are key to the
evolving business models
• Bundles:
–fixed offers: bundles are key to customer acquisition and customer
retention
–mobile offers: increase data usage and ARPS.
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16. Technology Trends and
the ICT Market
• How are firms reacting:
–New services
–Organisational restructuring
–Mergers and Acquisitions
–Firm Specialisation
–New Entry
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