This study uses ecological niche modeling to analyze the current and future risk of Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) in Africa. The results show that eastern and central Africa currently have suitable conditions for MLND, with many hotspots located in the central humid and sub-humid regions. By 2020 and 2050, the suitable areas are predicted to shrink, but eastern Africa will remain a hotspot. Temperature and precipitation factors, especially precipitation in wet months/quarters, most influence the disease distribution. The study concludes landscape epidemiology can help identify geographic MLND risk areas to better target management resources.
Julian R - Using the EcoCrop model and database to forecast impacts of ccCIAT
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Preliminary results on the assessment of global food security issues under changing climates. Presented at Tyndall Centre, Norwich, UK, by Julian Ramirez
Strategies for managing climate risk: a case study of smallholder farmers in ...Premier Publishers
Â
This study analyses the factors affecting Ethiopian farmersâ choice of ex-ante adaptation and ex-post coping strategies for climate risk. We use multivariate probit models to explain the choice of various adaptation and coping strategies. We find that plot characteristics such as slope, depth, soil type and soil fertility, and farm size are important factors affecting the choice of adaptation strategy. These plot characteristics also significantly affect the choice of particular coping strategies such as selling livestock, reducing meals and borrowing. The results also show that plot management practices such as leaving crop residues, intercropping and use of non-recycled hybrid maize are associated with a reduced likelihood of choosing coping measures such as selling livestock. We advocate increased farmer education on improved farm management practices to reduce household vulnerability to climate change and variability.
Overview of Drought Indicators and their application in the context of a Drou...NENAwaterscarcity
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Workshop on Operationalizing the Regional Collaborative Platform to Address âWater Consumption, Water Productivity and Drought Managementâ in Agriculture, 27 - 29 October 2015, Cairo, Egypt
Diversification & Climate Risk Management Strategies: Evidence from Rural MalawiFAO
Â
www.fao.org/climatechange/epic
This presentation was prepared to as background to the knowledge-sharing workshop held in Lilongwe, Malawi, on 5 Feb 2015
ŠFAO
Julian R - Using the EcoCrop model and database to forecast impacts of ccCIAT
Â
Preliminary results on the assessment of global food security issues under changing climates. Presented at Tyndall Centre, Norwich, UK, by Julian Ramirez
Strategies for managing climate risk: a case study of smallholder farmers in ...Premier Publishers
Â
This study analyses the factors affecting Ethiopian farmersâ choice of ex-ante adaptation and ex-post coping strategies for climate risk. We use multivariate probit models to explain the choice of various adaptation and coping strategies. We find that plot characteristics such as slope, depth, soil type and soil fertility, and farm size are important factors affecting the choice of adaptation strategy. These plot characteristics also significantly affect the choice of particular coping strategies such as selling livestock, reducing meals and borrowing. The results also show that plot management practices such as leaving crop residues, intercropping and use of non-recycled hybrid maize are associated with a reduced likelihood of choosing coping measures such as selling livestock. We advocate increased farmer education on improved farm management practices to reduce household vulnerability to climate change and variability.
Overview of Drought Indicators and their application in the context of a Drou...NENAwaterscarcity
Â
Workshop on Operationalizing the Regional Collaborative Platform to Address âWater Consumption, Water Productivity and Drought Managementâ in Agriculture, 27 - 29 October 2015, Cairo, Egypt
Diversification & Climate Risk Management Strategies: Evidence from Rural MalawiFAO
Â
www.fao.org/climatechange/epic
This presentation was prepared to as background to the knowledge-sharing workshop held in Lilongwe, Malawi, on 5 Feb 2015
ŠFAO
Aspects of the ecology of fruit flies in ugandaBrian Isabirye
Â
Fruit flies cause about 40% fruit loss in Africa, and about 73% in Uganda. Design of IPM strategies for fruit flies requires knowledge of their biology. Was limited to Nakasinga, 2002; Nemeye, 2005; Okullokwany, 2006. It is not clear how: Diversity has been shaped by hosts, distribution and envital variability.
Highly cryptic and inter-intra-specific morphological variation (Clarke et al., 2005; Drew et al., 2008) among Bactrocera spp. turns out.
Will change in climate alter the suitability and distribution of species?
Climate resilient and environmentally sound agriculture - Module 5FAO
Â
Part II - Addressing challenges
Module 5:
C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: technical considerations and examples of production systems
âCLIMATE-SMARTâ AGRICULTURE, an information package for government authorities. This online information package was written with the idea of providing an overview of the challenges that the agriculture sector - and to a certain extent the food production chain - faces to feed the world while becoming more efficient. It also explores ways to address these challenges.
ŠFAO
Succession âLosersâ: What Happens to Executives Passed Over for the CEO Job?
By David F. Larcker, Stephen A. Miles, and Brian Tayan
Stanford Closer Look Series
Overview:
Shareholders pay considerable attention to the choice of executive selected as the new CEO whenever a change in leadership takes place. However, without an inside look at the leading candidates to assume the CEO role, it is difficult for shareholders to tell whether the board has made the correct choice. In this Closer Look, we examine CEO succession events among the largest 100 companies over a ten-year period to determine what happens to the executives who were not selected (i.e., the âsuccession losersâ) and how they perform relative to those who were selected (the âsuccession winnersâ).
We ask:
⢠Are the executives selected for the CEO role really better than those passed over?
⢠What are the implications for understanding the labor market for executive talent?
⢠Are differences in performance due to operating conditions or quality of available talent?
⢠Are boards better at identifying CEO talent than other research generally suggests?
Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services under the New Normal of Climate ...World Agroforestry (ICRAF)
Â
In the years to come climate change, coupled with population growth, energy and natural resource depletion, will increasingly challenge our continued ability to feed ourselves. As we move forward, persistent problems, past failures and new challenges within Extension change agents and advisory service (EAS) provisioning have the potential to converge in a perfect storm as the scramble to adapt to the new normal of life under climate change intensifies. This presentation outlines the nature of the challenges, identifies past and present points of successful EAS engagement and outlines necessary areas of preparation
Presentation by Bernard Bett at the 14th conference of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE), Merida, Yucatan, Mexico, 3-7 November 2015.
Effect of Rainfall Trend on Yam Yield in Mokwa Local Government Area of Niger...CrimsonpublishersEAES
Â
Agricultural production in Niger State like other states in Nigeria is highly vulnerable to climate changeability. Climate change is predicted to have adverse effects on the agricultural sector of the poorer parts of the world especially sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of the study is to investigate and analyse the effect of rainfall trend on the production of yam in Mokwa local government area of Niger state, Nigeria. For the purpose of this research, data were collected from 100 respondents through the administration of questionnaires. Rainfall data covering a period of thirteen years (2003-2015) were also obtained from College of Agriculture Mokwa weather station, while the yearly yam yield for 16 years (2000-2015) was obtained from Niger State Ministry of Agriculture.
Linear regression models and standardized anomaly index were used to analysis the data gathered. The study showed that the trend of mean annual rainfall in the study area was minimal but significant with R2 value of 0.8 for mean monthly rainfall. A strong relationship between rainfall variation and yam yield exist with r2 value of 0.881. The variation in the yield among the years was moderately significant with R2 value of 0.5064. It also showed a positive response between yam yield and moderate rainfall that was well distributed. Extension agent from ministries of agriculture and ADPs should do more in harnessing relevant information on food production in all the local government areas of Niger state so as to build a robust data bank for further research.
https://www.crimsonpublishers.com/eaes/fulltext/EAES.000512.php
For more open access journals in Crimson Publishers
Please click on link: https://crimsonpublishers.com/
For More Articles on Environmental Sciences
Please click on: https://crimsonpublishers.com/eaes/
Andy Jarvis Are Protected Areas Enough To Conserve Biodiversity In 2050 G...CIAT
Â
Presentation made at the Science Symposium of GBIF in 2009 in Copenhagen in reception of the Ebbe Nielsen prize for innovative research in bioinformatics and biosystematics.
Presentation made by Andy Jarvis from the Decision and Policy Analysis Program of the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Delivered at the GBIF Science Symposium 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark in October.
Vulnerability to climate change impact is the most pressing issues for less developed countries whose economy mainly depends on the agricultural sector. The demand for food is growing swiftly whereas impacts of climate change on the global food production are increasing. More area specific research outputs and evidences-based policy directions are needed to tackle the ever changing climate and to reduce its impacts on the agricultural production. The aim of this study was to investigate subsistence farmer householdâs vulnerability level to climate change impacts and its associations with householdâs agricultural production. Then primary data was collected from 400 households from Kolla Temben District, Tigray Regional State, North Ethiopia. Multistage sampling techniques were applied to select households for interview from the district. In the first stage, 4 Kebelles (Kebelle - administration unit) were selected randomly out of 27 Kebelles and then400 households were selected for interview through systematic random sampling techniques (Figure 1). Multiple regressions were used to examine the associations between householdâs vulnerability to climate change impacts and agricultural production. Grounded theory and content analysis techniques were use to analyze data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions. For every single unit increase in household vulnerability to climate change impacts, there was an average agricultural production decrease between 16.99 and 25.83 (Table 4). For single unit increase in householdâs vulnerability to climate change impact, there was a decrease of total crop production, Total income, total livestock, total food consumption and food consumption per adult equivalent. Rainfall decrease, small farmland ownership, steep topography, frequent flood occurrences and large family size are among the major factors that negatively affect householdâs agricultural production and total income. The more the vulnerable the households, the less in total annual crop production, total livestock size, total income from agricultural production and the more dependent on food aid). There is a negative association between householdâs vulnerability level to climate change impacts and agricultural production (crop production, total livestock ownerships and total income from crop production). More access to irrigation and agricultural fertilizers, improved varieties of crops, small family size, improve farmland ownership size, more access to education and Agricultural Extension services are an effective areas of intervention to improve householdâs resilient, reduce households vulnerability level to climate change impacts and increase householdâs total agricultural production.
The significance of indigenous weather forecast knowledge and practices under...Premier Publishers
Â
This paper discusses the implication of indigenous knowledge-based weather forecasts (IK-BFs) as a tool for reducing risks associated with weather variability and climate change among smallholder farmers on the south eastern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro in Moshi Rural District of Tanzania. Participatory research approaches and household surveys were used to identify and document past and existing IK-BF practices. Local communities in the study transect use traditional experiences and knowledge to predict impending weather conditions by observing a combination of locally available indicators: plant phenology (40.80%), bird behaviour (21.33%), atmospheric changes (10.40%), insectsâ behaviour (7.20%), environmental changes on Kilimanjaro, Pare and Ugweno mountains (4.80%), astronomical indicators (4.8%), animal behaviour (4.00%), water related indicators (3.73%) and traditional calendars (2.93%). The study established that 60% of farmers use and trust IK-BFs over modern science-based forecasts (SCFs). Although about 86.3% of respondents observed some correlation between IK-BFs and SCFs, and 93.6% supported integration of the two sets of information, the nature and extent of their correlation is not yet established. We none the less recommend that IK-BFs be taken into relevant national policies and development frameworks to facilitate agro-ecological conservation for use and delivery of effective weather and climate services to farming communities.
Aspects of the ecology of fruit flies in ugandaBrian Isabirye
Â
Fruit flies cause about 40% fruit loss in Africa, and about 73% in Uganda. Design of IPM strategies for fruit flies requires knowledge of their biology. Was limited to Nakasinga, 2002; Nemeye, 2005; Okullokwany, 2006. It is not clear how: Diversity has been shaped by hosts, distribution and envital variability.
Highly cryptic and inter-intra-specific morphological variation (Clarke et al., 2005; Drew et al., 2008) among Bactrocera spp. turns out.
Will change in climate alter the suitability and distribution of species?
Climate resilient and environmentally sound agriculture - Module 5FAO
Â
Part II - Addressing challenges
Module 5:
C-RESAP/climate-smart agriculture: technical considerations and examples of production systems
âCLIMATE-SMARTâ AGRICULTURE, an information package for government authorities. This online information package was written with the idea of providing an overview of the challenges that the agriculture sector - and to a certain extent the food production chain - faces to feed the world while becoming more efficient. It also explores ways to address these challenges.
ŠFAO
Succession âLosersâ: What Happens to Executives Passed Over for the CEO Job?
By David F. Larcker, Stephen A. Miles, and Brian Tayan
Stanford Closer Look Series
Overview:
Shareholders pay considerable attention to the choice of executive selected as the new CEO whenever a change in leadership takes place. However, without an inside look at the leading candidates to assume the CEO role, it is difficult for shareholders to tell whether the board has made the correct choice. In this Closer Look, we examine CEO succession events among the largest 100 companies over a ten-year period to determine what happens to the executives who were not selected (i.e., the âsuccession losersâ) and how they perform relative to those who were selected (the âsuccession winnersâ).
We ask:
⢠Are the executives selected for the CEO role really better than those passed over?
⢠What are the implications for understanding the labor market for executive talent?
⢠Are differences in performance due to operating conditions or quality of available talent?
⢠Are boards better at identifying CEO talent than other research generally suggests?
Agriculture Extension and Advisory Services under the New Normal of Climate ...World Agroforestry (ICRAF)
Â
In the years to come climate change, coupled with population growth, energy and natural resource depletion, will increasingly challenge our continued ability to feed ourselves. As we move forward, persistent problems, past failures and new challenges within Extension change agents and advisory service (EAS) provisioning have the potential to converge in a perfect storm as the scramble to adapt to the new normal of life under climate change intensifies. This presentation outlines the nature of the challenges, identifies past and present points of successful EAS engagement and outlines necessary areas of preparation
Presentation by Bernard Bett at the 14th conference of the International Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics (ISVEE), Merida, Yucatan, Mexico, 3-7 November 2015.
Effect of Rainfall Trend on Yam Yield in Mokwa Local Government Area of Niger...CrimsonpublishersEAES
Â
Agricultural production in Niger State like other states in Nigeria is highly vulnerable to climate changeability. Climate change is predicted to have adverse effects on the agricultural sector of the poorer parts of the world especially sub-Saharan Africa. The aim of the study is to investigate and analyse the effect of rainfall trend on the production of yam in Mokwa local government area of Niger state, Nigeria. For the purpose of this research, data were collected from 100 respondents through the administration of questionnaires. Rainfall data covering a period of thirteen years (2003-2015) were also obtained from College of Agriculture Mokwa weather station, while the yearly yam yield for 16 years (2000-2015) was obtained from Niger State Ministry of Agriculture.
Linear regression models and standardized anomaly index were used to analysis the data gathered. The study showed that the trend of mean annual rainfall in the study area was minimal but significant with R2 value of 0.8 for mean monthly rainfall. A strong relationship between rainfall variation and yam yield exist with r2 value of 0.881. The variation in the yield among the years was moderately significant with R2 value of 0.5064. It also showed a positive response between yam yield and moderate rainfall that was well distributed. Extension agent from ministries of agriculture and ADPs should do more in harnessing relevant information on food production in all the local government areas of Niger state so as to build a robust data bank for further research.
https://www.crimsonpublishers.com/eaes/fulltext/EAES.000512.php
For more open access journals in Crimson Publishers
Please click on link: https://crimsonpublishers.com/
For More Articles on Environmental Sciences
Please click on: https://crimsonpublishers.com/eaes/
Andy Jarvis Are Protected Areas Enough To Conserve Biodiversity In 2050 G...CIAT
Â
Presentation made at the Science Symposium of GBIF in 2009 in Copenhagen in reception of the Ebbe Nielsen prize for innovative research in bioinformatics and biosystematics.
Presentation made by Andy Jarvis from the Decision and Policy Analysis Program of the International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Delivered at the GBIF Science Symposium 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark in October.
Vulnerability to climate change impact is the most pressing issues for less developed countries whose economy mainly depends on the agricultural sector. The demand for food is growing swiftly whereas impacts of climate change on the global food production are increasing. More area specific research outputs and evidences-based policy directions are needed to tackle the ever changing climate and to reduce its impacts on the agricultural production. The aim of this study was to investigate subsistence farmer householdâs vulnerability level to climate change impacts and its associations with householdâs agricultural production. Then primary data was collected from 400 households from Kolla Temben District, Tigray Regional State, North Ethiopia. Multistage sampling techniques were applied to select households for interview from the district. In the first stage, 4 Kebelles (Kebelle - administration unit) were selected randomly out of 27 Kebelles and then400 households were selected for interview through systematic random sampling techniques (Figure 1). Multiple regressions were used to examine the associations between householdâs vulnerability to climate change impacts and agricultural production. Grounded theory and content analysis techniques were use to analyze data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions. For every single unit increase in household vulnerability to climate change impacts, there was an average agricultural production decrease between 16.99 and 25.83 (Table 4). For single unit increase in householdâs vulnerability to climate change impact, there was a decrease of total crop production, Total income, total livestock, total food consumption and food consumption per adult equivalent. Rainfall decrease, small farmland ownership, steep topography, frequent flood occurrences and large family size are among the major factors that negatively affect householdâs agricultural production and total income. The more the vulnerable the households, the less in total annual crop production, total livestock size, total income from agricultural production and the more dependent on food aid). There is a negative association between householdâs vulnerability level to climate change impacts and agricultural production (crop production, total livestock ownerships and total income from crop production). More access to irrigation and agricultural fertilizers, improved varieties of crops, small family size, improve farmland ownership size, more access to education and Agricultural Extension services are an effective areas of intervention to improve householdâs resilient, reduce households vulnerability level to climate change impacts and increase householdâs total agricultural production.
The significance of indigenous weather forecast knowledge and practices under...Premier Publishers
Â
This paper discusses the implication of indigenous knowledge-based weather forecasts (IK-BFs) as a tool for reducing risks associated with weather variability and climate change among smallholder farmers on the south eastern slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro in Moshi Rural District of Tanzania. Participatory research approaches and household surveys were used to identify and document past and existing IK-BF practices. Local communities in the study transect use traditional experiences and knowledge to predict impending weather conditions by observing a combination of locally available indicators: plant phenology (40.80%), bird behaviour (21.33%), atmospheric changes (10.40%), insectsâ behaviour (7.20%), environmental changes on Kilimanjaro, Pare and Ugweno mountains (4.80%), astronomical indicators (4.8%), animal behaviour (4.00%), water related indicators (3.73%) and traditional calendars (2.93%). The study established that 60% of farmers use and trust IK-BFs over modern science-based forecasts (SCFs). Although about 86.3% of respondents observed some correlation between IK-BFs and SCFs, and 93.6% supported integration of the two sets of information, the nature and extent of their correlation is not yet established. We none the less recommend that IK-BFs be taken into relevant national policies and development frameworks to facilitate agro-ecological conservation for use and delivery of effective weather and climate services to farming communities.
Climate change impacts on animal health and vector borne diseasesILRI
Â
Presentation by Bernard Bett and Delia Grace at a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) climate change technical officers' meeting, Nairobi, Kenya, 1 April 2014.
Decadal climate information, decision-making and risk management in sub-Saharan African agricultural and food systems: Lessons from southern and eastern Africa
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersSafe Software
Â
Are you looking to streamline your workflows and boost your projectsâ efficiency? Do you find yourself searching for ways to add flexibility and control over your FME workflows? If so, youâre in the right place.
Join us for an insightful dive into the world of FME parameters, a critical element in optimizing workflow efficiency. This webinar marks the beginning of our three-part âEssentials of Automationâ series. This first webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and skills to utilize parameters effectively: enhancing the flexibility, maintainability, and user control of your FME projects.
Hereâs what youâll gain:
- Essentials of FME Parameters: Understand the pivotal role of parameters, including Reader/Writer, Transformer, User, and FME Flow categories. Discover how they are the key to unlocking automation and optimization within your workflows.
- Practical Applications in FME Form: Delve into key user parameter types including choice, connections, and file URLs. Allow users to control how a workflow runs, making your workflows more reusable. Learn to import values and deliver the best user experience for your workflows while enhancing accuracy.
- Optimization Strategies in FME Flow: Explore the creation and strategic deployment of parameters in FME Flow, including the use of deployment and geometry parameters, to maximize workflow efficiency.
- Pro Tips for Success: Gain insights on parameterizing connections and leveraging new features like Conditional Visibility for clarity and simplicity.
Weâll wrap up with a glimpse into future webinars, followed by a Q&A session to address your specific questions surrounding this topic.
Donât miss this opportunity to elevate your FME expertise and drive your projects to new heights of efficiency.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Â
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)Ralf Eggert
Â
In this presentation, we examine the challenges and limitations of relying too heavily on PHP frameworks in web development. We discuss the history of PHP and its frameworks to understand how this dependence has evolved. The focus will be on providing concrete tips and strategies to reduce reliance on these frameworks, based on real-world examples and practical considerations. The goal is to equip developers with the skills and knowledge to create more flexible and future-proof web applications. We'll explore the importance of maintaining autonomy in a rapidly changing tech landscape and how to make informed decisions in PHP development.
This talk is aimed at encouraging a more independent approach to using PHP frameworks, moving towards a more flexible and future-proof approach to PHP development.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 3DianaGray10
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UI automation Introduction,
UI automation Sample
Desktop automation flow
Pradeep Chinnala, Senior Consultant Automation Developer @WonderBotz and UiPath MVP
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
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Clients donât know what they donât know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
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Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey 2024 by 91mobiles.pdf91mobiles
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Â
A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024Tobias Schneck
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As AI technology is pushing into IT I was wondering myself, as an âinfrastructure container kubernetes guyâ, how get this fancy AI technology get managed from an infrastructure operational view? Is it possible to apply our lovely cloud native principals as well? What benefitâs both technologies could bring to each other?
Let me take this questions and provide you a short journey through existing deployment models and use cases for AI software. On practical examples, we discuss what cloud/on-premise strategy we may need for applying it to our own infrastructure to get it to work from an enterprise perspective. I want to give an overview about infrastructure requirements and technologies, what could be beneficial or limiting your AI use cases in an enterprise environment. An interactive Demo will give you some insides, what approaches I got already working for real.
AI for Every Business: Unlocking Your Product's Universal Potential by VP of ...
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Mln presesntation very final
1. Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease Threat in Africa:
Current and Future Risk Analysis Using Ecological
Nichie Models
Rwomushana I1, Isabirye B.E1*, Masiga C. W1., Zziwa E1, Opio F1
1Association
for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and Central Africa (ASARECA), P.O.Box 765, Entebbe, Uganda
*b.isabirye@asareca.org/ brianisabirye@yahoo.com
2. Introduction
â˘âŻ Most important cereal crop: Staple food (>1.2
billion) & 34% global cereal production
â˘âŻ Africa grows 29 M ha & consumes 30% global
maize produce. E.A average per capita
consumption is 100 kg/ year
â˘âŻ Due to several constraints, Africa does not exploit
her over 80M Ha potential land for maize
production, hence imports 28% to fill the
consumption deficit.
â˘âŻ Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND), caused by
synergistic effect of maize chlorotic mottle virus
(MCMV) and any potyvirus: MDMV, SCMV, WSMV
has been causing maize losses lately!
â˘âŻ Maize production to drop by >15% by 2020 in much
of sub-Saharan Africa. Estimated loss to Africa at
$2 billion a year. Prices increase by 35% for maize
3. MLND Prevalence
â˘âŻ Incidence dates back to 1973 in Peru,
and in Kansas, 1976 (Castillo & Hebert,
1974; Niblett & Claflin, 1978).
â˘âŻ China in 2010, and by 2011 in Argentina
& Mexico (Nelson et al., 2011)
â˘âŻ In Africa: in Kenya in 2011 Bomet
County (Wangai, 2012), Tanzania
(Miano et al. 2013), and Uganda (CABI,
2013), Rwanda (RAB, 2013).
â˘âŻ Losses range btn 30-100% (FAO, 2012;
CABI, 2013). Over 15,732 ha of maize
infected, affecting over 300,000 farmers
in Kenya by mid 2012 (FSNWG, 2012).
4. Climate Change Impact on Agriculture
â˘âŻ Variable and uncertain weather the greatest challenges to smallscale farmers whose livelihoods
we aim to transform in ECA
â˘âŻ New technologies and knowledge
- hardier crops and better ways to
manage resources
â˘âŻ Need to address both mitigation
of and adaptation to climate
change.
4
5. The Study: Current and future Risk Analysis
â˘âŻ The spatiotemporal variation of MLN suitability and emergence
remains poorly understood, making it difficult to design responsive
mitigation and adaptation measures.
§ď§âŻ Describe the geographic distribution and ecological niche
(Grinnell, 1917) of MLN in Africa to identify potential risk areas
using a landscape epidemiology approach.
â˘âŻ Important ďŹrst attempt in identifying the geographic areas in Africa
having the ecological conditions suitable for MLND in the
environment.
â˘âŻ Premise: Knowing the suitable environmental conditions for speciďŹc
vectors, hosts and pathogens in nature, one can use the landscape
to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of disease risk
(Meade & Earickson 2000; NASA 2006).
6. Landscape epidemiology with ENM
â˘âŻ In many cases, the details of ecologic
parameters associated with occurrences of
diseases may be unclear because of small
sample sizes, biased reporting, or simply lack of
detailed geographic or ecologic analysis.
â˘âŻ ENM has a suite of tools that relate known
occurrences of these phenomena to raster
geographic information system layers that
summarize variation in several environmental
dimensions.
â˘âŻ The result is an objective, quantitative picture of
how what is known about a species or
phenomenon relates to environmental variation
across a landscape.
7. Disease ENM: Proof of Concept
Characterization of ecologic features of
outbreaks of hemorrhagic fever caused by
Ebola and Marburg viruses
8. Methods for ENM of MLND
Geographic Space
Ecological Space
occurrence points on current distribution
Current
Current range prediction
Future range prediction
Model of niche in ecological
dimensions
precipitation
ecological niche modeling
Projection back onto geography
Variable
Bio1
Bio2
Bio3
Bio4
Bio5
Bio6
Bio7
Bio8
Bio9
Bio10
Bio11
Bio12
Bio13
Bio14
Bio15
Bio16
Bio17
Bio18
Bio19
!
temperature
Variable type
Annual mean temperature
Mean diurnal range: mean of monthly)
Isothermality: (P2/P7) Ă 100
Temperature seasonality (SD Ă 100)
Maximum temperature of warmest month
Minimum temperature of coldest month
Temperature annual range (P5 â P6)
Mean temperature of wettest quarter
Mean temperature of driest quarter
Mean temperature of warmest quarter
Mean temperature of coldest quarter
Annual precipitation
Precipitation of wettest month
Precipitation of driest month
Precipitation seasonality
Precipitation of wettest quarter
Precipitation of driest quarter
Precipitation of warmest quarter
Precipitation of coldest quarter
9. Methods for ENM of MLNDâŚ
1. Extensive Survey by Several Partners and laboratory confirmation with PCR, FERA-UK
2. Literature review for reported detections in region
3. GARP: Genetic algorithm that uses a set of phenomena point
localities and a set of geographic layers representing the limiting
environmental parameters.
4. Both current (1950-2000) and future (2020 and 2050)
Scenarios were used (IPCC).
10. Results
1. Current Risk: Potential distribution and Hotspots
MLN Records in Africa
Current Potential Risk Areas
Hot Spots distribution
Eastern and Central Africa, and Southern and Mid-West Africa show suitability of MLN, with majority of
hotspots located in the humid and sub-humid central and eastern Africa
11. ResultsâŚ
2. Future Risk: 2020 Potential distribution & Hotspots
2020 Period Potential Risk Areas
2020 Hotspots distribution
Shrinkages in MLN suitability predicted, with much of West Africa, Madagascar and Southern Africa
becoming less suitable, but Eastern Africa will remain hotspots.
12. ResultsâŚ
3. Future Risk: 2050 Potential distribution & Hotspots
2050 Period Potential Risk Areas
2050 Hotspots distribution
Shrinkages in MLN suitability predicted, with much of West Africa, Madagascar and
Southern Africa becoming less suitable, but Eastern Africa will remain hotspots.
14. Conclusions
â˘âŻ MLND Risk in Africa is high! Predictive tests based on independent
distributional data indicate that model predictions are robust (ROC and
Kappa values ranging between 85 and 99%), while field observations
confirm relationships between incidence and model predictions.
â˘âŻ There is need for better allocation of resources in the management of MLN,
with special emphasis in the Eastern and Central African region which will
remain a hotspot up to 2050.
â˘âŻ Landscape based epidemiology can resolve spatial resolution of geographic
risk for current and emerging diseases. Propose inclusion in regional and
national Early Warning Initiatives.
15. Thanks!!!
WORKSHOP TO DEVELOP A STRATEGIC PLAN FOR MAIZE LETHAL NECROSIS
DISEASE FOR ECA, JACARANDA HOTEL, NAIROBI, KENYA, 21-23 AUGUST 2013.