John Sykes conducted scenario planning exercises to explore the future of minerals exploration and the mining industry. He generated four sets of scenarios through individual and group exercises with professionals from various fields. The scenarios explored how factors like technological development, economic conditions, environmental and social issues, and geopolitics could impact the mining industry. One set of scenarios specifically looked at how the transition to renewable energy could influence the mining sector and present opportunities to explore for minerals needed for green technologies. The scenarios suggested several possible futures for how the energy transition might unfold and its effects on mining.
Western Australian Iron Ore - Laurent et al - Jul 2017 - UWA Business SchoolJohn Sykes
This document provides an overview and interpretation of key events in the global iron ore market between 2002-2016. It discusses how rapid growth in Chinese demand and imports led to a price boom that encouraged increased supply, both from high-cost producers and more efficient major Australian producers. While the majors were able to maintain production, many smaller producers struggled after 2014 when demand and prices declined from record highs. The document analyzes factors such as the cost curves of different producers and China's changing production and import levels that influenced market conditions over this period.
Renewable energy and battery metals - Sykes & Trench - Nov 2017 - Centre for...John Sykes
The document discusses the renewable energy transition's impact on battery and strategic metal markets. It notes that increased demand for renewables and energy storage is creating new opportunities for metals but also straining supply chains. Some metals like rare earths are becoming "critical" due to potential restrictions on production from geopolitical, environmental or social factors. While mining companies and investors initially piled into battery and energy metals markets, growth has been uneven and some companies have faced failures or bankruptcies. The document examines evidence of past transformative metal market growth and considers which energy metals may have the most potential for growth but also the least constraints, though environmental and social issues add further complexity to projections.
Graphite mining and the energy transition - Sykes - Nov 2017 - MinEx ConsultingJohn Sykes
This presentation is also available on the MinEx Consulting website, along with a number of other detailed presentations on minerals exploration. All are free to download: http://www.minexconsulting.com/publications/nov2017.html
Globalisation & sustainability in mining - Sykes et al - Sep 2017 - Centre fo...John Sykes
This document summarizes a presentation on scenarios for the future of mining considering changing views on globalization and sustainability. It describes four "Dickensian" scenarios named after characters in A Christmas Carol: Scrooge, Marley, Cratchit, and Fezziwig. Scrooge represents a protectionist view focused on profits. Marley favors globalization and free trade for profits. Cratchit prioritizes protectionism and shared value. Fezziwig promotes globalization of shared value. The scenarios draw on shifting political views around these issues to speculate on implications for the mining industry in the long term.
Scenario planning to improve exploration - Sykes - Nov 2017 - Centre for Expl...John Sykes
The document summarizes the journey and evolution of the author's PhD research topic. It began focused on analyzing existing copper mine projects and reserves but encountered problems incorporating uncertainty about future economic, technical, environmental and socio-political conditions. The research then shifted to using scenario planning to test the adaptability of mining projects to different futures. This identified limitations in applying traditional portfolio approaches. The research further expanded to consider how explorers could discover deposits better aligned with future demands and paradigms around sustainability. The author ultimately framed the question around the mining industry's transition to an unknown future.
Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging ...John Sykes
Opportunities are not equal
Some nearer ‘break out’ than others fewer solutions
required
Some challenges are more ‘resolvable’ than others
Some ‘break outs’ will be bigger than others
Key is to focus on those ‘near breakout’ with resolvable (i.e.
technical, geological) issues, and that have a big pay off
Exploration and Mining Trends in the Digital Age: Global Outlook and Issues i...Tim Alch
At CESCO Week in Santiago, Chile I spoke about the world’s need to explore for and mine copper and the importance of knowing early-on how to operate locally to manage risks. While optimistic, over the life of mining any resource, there are many variables and issues owners need to be mindful of including managing many different and often changing expectations. In the case of copper, it is core to the world being connected on smartphones, Facebook, internet, etc., Without copper, it is fair to say we cannot be connected as we all are and expect to be. While copper does have unique properties and the business differs from other commodities, other minerals share similar outlooks as more of the world’s ~7.2 billion people near term are projected to live in urban areas, enjoy higher standards of living and consume more materials.
Western Australian Iron Ore - Laurent et al - Jul 2017 - UWA Business SchoolJohn Sykes
This document provides an overview and interpretation of key events in the global iron ore market between 2002-2016. It discusses how rapid growth in Chinese demand and imports led to a price boom that encouraged increased supply, both from high-cost producers and more efficient major Australian producers. While the majors were able to maintain production, many smaller producers struggled after 2014 when demand and prices declined from record highs. The document analyzes factors such as the cost curves of different producers and China's changing production and import levels that influenced market conditions over this period.
Renewable energy and battery metals - Sykes & Trench - Nov 2017 - Centre for...John Sykes
The document discusses the renewable energy transition's impact on battery and strategic metal markets. It notes that increased demand for renewables and energy storage is creating new opportunities for metals but also straining supply chains. Some metals like rare earths are becoming "critical" due to potential restrictions on production from geopolitical, environmental or social factors. While mining companies and investors initially piled into battery and energy metals markets, growth has been uneven and some companies have faced failures or bankruptcies. The document examines evidence of past transformative metal market growth and considers which energy metals may have the most potential for growth but also the least constraints, though environmental and social issues add further complexity to projections.
Graphite mining and the energy transition - Sykes - Nov 2017 - MinEx ConsultingJohn Sykes
This presentation is also available on the MinEx Consulting website, along with a number of other detailed presentations on minerals exploration. All are free to download: http://www.minexconsulting.com/publications/nov2017.html
Globalisation & sustainability in mining - Sykes et al - Sep 2017 - Centre fo...John Sykes
This document summarizes a presentation on scenarios for the future of mining considering changing views on globalization and sustainability. It describes four "Dickensian" scenarios named after characters in A Christmas Carol: Scrooge, Marley, Cratchit, and Fezziwig. Scrooge represents a protectionist view focused on profits. Marley favors globalization and free trade for profits. Cratchit prioritizes protectionism and shared value. Fezziwig promotes globalization of shared value. The scenarios draw on shifting political views around these issues to speculate on implications for the mining industry in the long term.
Scenario planning to improve exploration - Sykes - Nov 2017 - Centre for Expl...John Sykes
The document summarizes the journey and evolution of the author's PhD research topic. It began focused on analyzing existing copper mine projects and reserves but encountered problems incorporating uncertainty about future economic, technical, environmental and socio-political conditions. The research then shifted to using scenario planning to test the adaptability of mining projects to different futures. This identified limitations in applying traditional portfolio approaches. The research further expanded to consider how explorers could discover deposits better aligned with future demands and paradigms around sustainability. The author ultimately framed the question around the mining industry's transition to an unknown future.
Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging ...John Sykes
Opportunities are not equal
Some nearer ‘break out’ than others fewer solutions
required
Some challenges are more ‘resolvable’ than others
Some ‘break outs’ will be bigger than others
Key is to focus on those ‘near breakout’ with resolvable (i.e.
technical, geological) issues, and that have a big pay off
Exploration and Mining Trends in the Digital Age: Global Outlook and Issues i...Tim Alch
At CESCO Week in Santiago, Chile I spoke about the world’s need to explore for and mine copper and the importance of knowing early-on how to operate locally to manage risks. While optimistic, over the life of mining any resource, there are many variables and issues owners need to be mindful of including managing many different and often changing expectations. In the case of copper, it is core to the world being connected on smartphones, Facebook, internet, etc., Without copper, it is fair to say we cannot be connected as we all are and expect to be. While copper does have unique properties and the business differs from other commodities, other minerals share similar outlooks as more of the world’s ~7.2 billion people near term are projected to live in urban areas, enjoy higher standards of living and consume more materials.
100 Years of Resource Growth for Copper - Impact of Costs, Grade and Techn...RichardSchodde
The key drivers of copper resource growth over the last 100 years have been exploration success, changes in costs, and changes in prices. Most copper has been discovered in a small number of giant deposits. Until recently, more copper was being discovered each year than was being mined. Copper reserves have continued to grow 25-fold over the last century due to declining cut-off grades and expanding resources. While ore grades mined have declined over time, discovery grades have remained constant, suggesting lower grades could mean more total metal. Technological improvements and economies of scale have helped drive down mining costs four-fold, offsetting lower grades.
My PhD Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or: Using Scenarios...John Sykes
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
• a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
• better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
• developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets;
• building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
• switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
• developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
• encouraging creativity and ideation;
• linking short and long term thinking;
• improving the image of exploration;
• monitoring local and global socio political, economic and technological trends and
• measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
• encouraging a collective approach to ‘big exploration’.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the ‘discovery constraint’ on the minerals industry.
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfield...John Sykes
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfields Research / Rowton Ltd / Centre for Exploration Targeting / The University of Western Australia
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al ...John Sykes
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al - Dec 2014 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
A Mining and Exploration Industry Perspective on the Energy TransitionJohn Sykes
The transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels will both fundamentally change the structure of minerals demand, and the process of mining. The mining and exploration sector in its current form may struggle to re-align mineral production to match these new demand patterns, whilst at the same time undergoing a significant shift in production technology.
The ‘CET Scenarios’ Programme was established to investigate structural discontinuities, of this kind, in the future of mining. One discontinuity investigated was the energy transition. Two scenarios were developed: one involving a voluntary and complete energy transition driven by industrial innovation and framed by concerns over sustainable development (‘Wonderland’); and another with a forced and partial energy transition driven by government and framed by geopolitical (strategic) concerns over raw materials security (‘1984’).
Following the development of the scenarios further research was conducted into the interaction of the mining and exploration sector with the energy transition, sustainable development and resource security, with the aim of better informing corporate strategy.
The strategic recommendations to the mining and exploration sector for re-aligning with changing, but unknown minerals demand patterns, and exploration and production technologies, included techniques for monitoring ‘progress in transition’, ‘horizon scanning’, market analysis, capabilities analysis, and ensuring strategic coherence.
An emphasis was placed on developing creative, social, adaptable and varied thinking skills amongst mining and exploration sector professionals and researchers.
NOTE: This presentation was made in 2018 not 2011!!!
This document outlines the author's PhD journey and research process. It describes how the author initially hypothesized that copper supply issues were due to development constraints, but later realized exploration was actually discovery constrained. The author then developed scenario plans to test the resilience of existing copper mines and projects to an uncertain future, but found they generally failed. This led the author to pursue new ideas for mineral exploration beyond analyzing past trends. The document discusses the value of scenario planning but also its limitations in generating truly novel solutions.
Energy for kids: a 60min school presentation for 10 year old kidsGuillaume R. Fery
The document discusses energy sources, production, and usage. It begins with an outline that covers the presenter, energy resources and usage, techniques for producing energy, debates around energy, and the future of energy. It then explores topics like different energy sources, how consumption has increased over time and varied between places, debates around energy including environmental and safety issues, and potential future directions for energy. Throughout it provides examples, diagrams, and encourages discussion and questions from students.
Duncan Calder - In line with Chinese Government policy to cut emissions, increasing demand from steel mills for less polluting magnetite iron ore will boost Western Australia’s magnetite production.
The document discusses challenges in meeting future global energy demands due to rising populations and economic development. It notes that world energy needs are projected to increase by 55% by 2030 and investments of $22 trillion will be needed for new infrastructure. Two approaches proposed to address this are implementing "carrot and stick" policies like emissions controls and green taxes, and developing new sustainable technologies for energy production.
1) The document discusses transitioning to a circular economy and factor 5 increases in resource productivity as pillars of sustainable development.
2) It provides examples of technologies and policies that can lead to factor 5-10 increases in efficiency for materials, energy, water, and transport.
3) The author argues for gradually increasing resource prices to incentivize further efficiency gains and recycling, coupled with tax revenues to fund the transition to a green economy.
Ring Of Fire Challenges And Opportunities North American Strategic Infras...Steve Demmings
This speech on "Ring of Fire:Challenges and Opportunities" was given at the annual North American Strategic Infrastructure Leadership Forum in Washington D.C. on October 12, 2011.
LNG Challenges and Lessons Learnt - Australia Tariq Siddiqui,
Natural #gas (Liquefied Natural Gas) isa transition fuel of choice to reduce carbon footprint. There are several challenges with #LNG (especially costs) and lots of lessons learnt by #oilandgas industry in #Australia where 5 concurrent mega #LNG projects were undertaken.
Shell and Brunei have a long and rich history together, dating back over 80 years. It’s a history that illustrates the importance of working together and of using innovation and technology to make the most of precious energy resources. The partnership between Shell and Brunei has helped make the Sultanate one of Asia’s most important producers of oil and gas and a reliable supplier of energy supporting the region’s rapidly growing economies.
And of course the income from oil and gas means that Brunei has one of the highest GDPs per capita in the world.
Like Shell, Brunei has a tradition as an energy pioneer. Brunei LNG began operating one of the world’s first large-scale liquefied natural gas facilities back in 1972. Over the subsequent 40 years, Brunei has safely delivered more than 6,000 LNG cargoes, mainly to Japan and Korea, underpinning the energy security of both countries.
The document discusses peak copper, whether concerns about it are valid, and perspectives on copper reserves and resources. It notes that while copper is relatively common in the Earth's crust, only a fraction can be feasibly extracted. Estimates suggest there are over 1 billion metric tons of copper in the ground that could potentially be used, with around 950 million metric tons considered economically recoverable based on current discovery and extraction potential. The document explores factors that could affect peak copper projections like new discoveries, technological advances, and demand variations.
Energy transition: mining perspective - Sykes et al - Feb 2017 - Centre for E...John Sykes
This document discusses the energy transition from a mining and exploration industry perspective. It covers topics like batteries, renewable energy sources, battery metals, renewables metals, supply and demand trends, price volatility, case studies, and scenarios for how the energy transition may progress. Diagrams show historical growth trends for various metals and the potential constraints on future supply. The conclusion discusses different paradigms and scenarios for how geopolitics and business capabilities may influence winners and losers.
The Energy Transition: Miners Perspective - Sykes et al - Nov 2016John Sykes
The document discusses the energy transition underway as the world shifts from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles. This transition is creating new opportunities for metals used in batteries and renewable technologies, but the growth in demand and markets for these "energy metals" has been mixed so far. The mining sector and investors have invested heavily in lithium, rare earths, and other energy metals in recent years. However, navigating the complex energy transition will be challenging, as major market shifts have occurred unpredictably in the past and were complicated by technological innovations and societal changes. The transition presents opportunities but also uncertainties that explorers, miners and investors must navigate carefully.
100 Years of Resource Growth for Copper - Impact of Costs, Grade and Techn...RichardSchodde
The key drivers of copper resource growth over the last 100 years have been exploration success, changes in costs, and changes in prices. Most copper has been discovered in a small number of giant deposits. Until recently, more copper was being discovered each year than was being mined. Copper reserves have continued to grow 25-fold over the last century due to declining cut-off grades and expanding resources. While ore grades mined have declined over time, discovery grades have remained constant, suggesting lower grades could mean more total metal. Technological improvements and economies of scale have helped drive down mining costs four-fold, offsetting lower grades.
My PhD Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or: Using Scenarios...John Sykes
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
• a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
• better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
• developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets;
• building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
• switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
• developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
• encouraging creativity and ideation;
• linking short and long term thinking;
• improving the image of exploration;
• monitoring local and global socio political, economic and technological trends and
• measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
• encouraging a collective approach to ‘big exploration’.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the ‘discovery constraint’ on the minerals industry.
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfield...John Sykes
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfields Research / Rowton Ltd / Centre for Exploration Targeting / The University of Western Australia
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al ...John Sykes
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al - Dec 2014 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
A Mining and Exploration Industry Perspective on the Energy TransitionJohn Sykes
The transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels will both fundamentally change the structure of minerals demand, and the process of mining. The mining and exploration sector in its current form may struggle to re-align mineral production to match these new demand patterns, whilst at the same time undergoing a significant shift in production technology.
The ‘CET Scenarios’ Programme was established to investigate structural discontinuities, of this kind, in the future of mining. One discontinuity investigated was the energy transition. Two scenarios were developed: one involving a voluntary and complete energy transition driven by industrial innovation and framed by concerns over sustainable development (‘Wonderland’); and another with a forced and partial energy transition driven by government and framed by geopolitical (strategic) concerns over raw materials security (‘1984’).
Following the development of the scenarios further research was conducted into the interaction of the mining and exploration sector with the energy transition, sustainable development and resource security, with the aim of better informing corporate strategy.
The strategic recommendations to the mining and exploration sector for re-aligning with changing, but unknown minerals demand patterns, and exploration and production technologies, included techniques for monitoring ‘progress in transition’, ‘horizon scanning’, market analysis, capabilities analysis, and ensuring strategic coherence.
An emphasis was placed on developing creative, social, adaptable and varied thinking skills amongst mining and exploration sector professionals and researchers.
NOTE: This presentation was made in 2018 not 2011!!!
This document outlines the author's PhD journey and research process. It describes how the author initially hypothesized that copper supply issues were due to development constraints, but later realized exploration was actually discovery constrained. The author then developed scenario plans to test the resilience of existing copper mines and projects to an uncertain future, but found they generally failed. This led the author to pursue new ideas for mineral exploration beyond analyzing past trends. The document discusses the value of scenario planning but also its limitations in generating truly novel solutions.
Energy for kids: a 60min school presentation for 10 year old kidsGuillaume R. Fery
The document discusses energy sources, production, and usage. It begins with an outline that covers the presenter, energy resources and usage, techniques for producing energy, debates around energy, and the future of energy. It then explores topics like different energy sources, how consumption has increased over time and varied between places, debates around energy including environmental and safety issues, and potential future directions for energy. Throughout it provides examples, diagrams, and encourages discussion and questions from students.
Duncan Calder - In line with Chinese Government policy to cut emissions, increasing demand from steel mills for less polluting magnetite iron ore will boost Western Australia’s magnetite production.
The document discusses challenges in meeting future global energy demands due to rising populations and economic development. It notes that world energy needs are projected to increase by 55% by 2030 and investments of $22 trillion will be needed for new infrastructure. Two approaches proposed to address this are implementing "carrot and stick" policies like emissions controls and green taxes, and developing new sustainable technologies for energy production.
1) The document discusses transitioning to a circular economy and factor 5 increases in resource productivity as pillars of sustainable development.
2) It provides examples of technologies and policies that can lead to factor 5-10 increases in efficiency for materials, energy, water, and transport.
3) The author argues for gradually increasing resource prices to incentivize further efficiency gains and recycling, coupled with tax revenues to fund the transition to a green economy.
Ring Of Fire Challenges And Opportunities North American Strategic Infras...Steve Demmings
This speech on "Ring of Fire:Challenges and Opportunities" was given at the annual North American Strategic Infrastructure Leadership Forum in Washington D.C. on October 12, 2011.
LNG Challenges and Lessons Learnt - Australia Tariq Siddiqui,
Natural #gas (Liquefied Natural Gas) isa transition fuel of choice to reduce carbon footprint. There are several challenges with #LNG (especially costs) and lots of lessons learnt by #oilandgas industry in #Australia where 5 concurrent mega #LNG projects were undertaken.
Shell and Brunei have a long and rich history together, dating back over 80 years. It’s a history that illustrates the importance of working together and of using innovation and technology to make the most of precious energy resources. The partnership between Shell and Brunei has helped make the Sultanate one of Asia’s most important producers of oil and gas and a reliable supplier of energy supporting the region’s rapidly growing economies.
And of course the income from oil and gas means that Brunei has one of the highest GDPs per capita in the world.
Like Shell, Brunei has a tradition as an energy pioneer. Brunei LNG began operating one of the world’s first large-scale liquefied natural gas facilities back in 1972. Over the subsequent 40 years, Brunei has safely delivered more than 6,000 LNG cargoes, mainly to Japan and Korea, underpinning the energy security of both countries.
The document discusses peak copper, whether concerns about it are valid, and perspectives on copper reserves and resources. It notes that while copper is relatively common in the Earth's crust, only a fraction can be feasibly extracted. Estimates suggest there are over 1 billion metric tons of copper in the ground that could potentially be used, with around 950 million metric tons considered economically recoverable based on current discovery and extraction potential. The document explores factors that could affect peak copper projections like new discoveries, technological advances, and demand variations.
Energy transition: mining perspective - Sykes et al - Feb 2017 - Centre for E...John Sykes
This document discusses the energy transition from a mining and exploration industry perspective. It covers topics like batteries, renewable energy sources, battery metals, renewables metals, supply and demand trends, price volatility, case studies, and scenarios for how the energy transition may progress. Diagrams show historical growth trends for various metals and the potential constraints on future supply. The conclusion discusses different paradigms and scenarios for how geopolitics and business capabilities may influence winners and losers.
The Energy Transition: Miners Perspective - Sykes et al - Nov 2016John Sykes
The document discusses the energy transition underway as the world shifts from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles. This transition is creating new opportunities for metals used in batteries and renewable technologies, but the growth in demand and markets for these "energy metals" has been mixed so far. The mining sector and investors have invested heavily in lithium, rare earths, and other energy metals in recent years. However, navigating the complex energy transition will be challenging, as major market shifts have occurred unpredictably in the past and were complicated by technological innovations and societal changes. The transition presents opportunities but also uncertainties that explorers, miners and investors must navigate carefully.
The document discusses the impacts of coal mining, including deaths, injuries, sickness, and lung diseases. It notes that over 3,000 coal miners died in a 1907 accident. Coal mining can cause black lung disease and pneumoconiosis due to inhaling coal dust. There were over 100,000 cases of pneumoconiosis in China and hundreds of cases in the US from 1996-2002. The deaths and diseases from coal mining have significant impacts through loss of income and increased poverty.
This document provides an overview of the extractive industry and discusses some of the ethical issues around mining practices and closure. It describes how mines are typically operated and regulated, including the use of reclamation bonds to fund cleanup. However, it notes that reclamation bonds are often substantially underfunded due to mining companies performing their own estimates. This can leave taxpayers footing the bill for cleanup when companies declare bankruptcy without sufficient funds. The document examines examples of underfunded mines and the efforts of government agencies to remediate abandoned mining sites.
17 Awesome Photo Essay Examples You Should Try Yourself. Photo Essay Examples, and Tips for Writing a Good Photo Essay : Current .... Tips on Selecting Photo Essay Topics | Photo Essay Examples&Ideas .... 15 Photo Essay Ideas (to Get Your Creative Juices Flowing) | Digital .... 30 Photo Essay Examples to Get Inspired (+FREEBIES). Photo Essay - 16+ Examples, Format, Pdf | Examples. How to Make a Photo Essay: 5 Tips for Impactful Results.
The document discusses the Distinguished Lecturer Program run by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE). It is primarily funded by member donations and industry support. The program brings in expert lecturers to discuss topics like global warming, fossil fuels, and the linkage between human activity and climate change. The document outlines some of the key debates in this area between those who believe human activity is the primary driver of climate change and those who are more skeptical of this view.
Shale is the most common sedimentary rock, formed from compressed sediments and mineral transformations under heat and pressure. More than 60% of geological hydrocarbon reservoirs are sealed by shale rocks, which are predominantly composed of clay minerals. Caprocks like shale provide integrity to contain underground gas and oil storage. Understanding shale's microstructure and mechanical properties helps maintain this integrity and prevent leakage. However, failures from fracturing or fault activation can cause containment incidents. Proper geological characterization of caprocks is needed to avoid leaks from underground storage and waste disposal sites.
Why is developing a new mine so difficult? - Oct 2013 - John P. Sykes - Centr...John Sykes
Globally there are problems in bringing new mine capacity on stream. With little new ‘greenfields’ exploration taking place at this time, the pipeline of high-quality mine projects is not being replenished. The problem for the mining industry is that minerals exploration takes place over long timescales, however, “success” is judged along much shorter timescales. Addressing this paradox is a challenge for all in minerals exploration management. This study has sought to address this topic by building on the author’s tacit knowledge, gained through experience in the mining industry, combined with a review of the business management and strategy literature. Emergent from this research are multiple ways for examining mining industry problems and a new approach to developing high-level strategies for facilitating minerals exploration.
During the mid to late 1800s, there were many technological innovations that resulted in increased industry. Easy production of steel led to the development of skyscrapers and more industrial buildings. The increase of industrial machinery changed the labor force from skilled to unskilled. Due to mass production, the number of products increased, while the cost of products decreased. This helped spur competition.
The Economics of Biofuels A New Industrial Revolutuion QZ1
This document discusses the economics of biofuels and how they relate to decarbonizing energy and addressing climate change. It provides historical context on population growth, industrial revolutions driven by new technologies like steam power, and more recent developments in endogenous growth theory. Biofuels are presented as one approach to transitioning away from fossil fuels while sustaining economic growth.
Effects Of Overpopulation And Industrialization On The...Stephanie Roberts
Solomon Northup's memoir Twelve Years a Slave provides vivid details about the cruel treatment of slaves in the 1800s. Northup recounts his experience of being kidnapped and sold into slavery for 12 years, during which he endured physical and emotional abuse from three different masters in the South. The memoir gives readers a deeper understanding of the harsh realities of slavery by documenting Northup's transition from a free man to a slave, and ultimately regaining his freedom.
1. The lecture discusses conventional energy resources including coal, petroleum, natural gas, hydropower, and nuclear power. Coal was a major fuel during the industrial revolution and petroleum currently fuels over 55% of transportation.
2. Petroleum formed from decayed plants and is found in sedimentary basins, with over 90% already discovered. It is highly energy dense and easily transported.
3. Major challenges include meeting growing energy demand sustainably while transitioning to cleaner sources as many conventional reserves are being depleted.
This document discusses trends in underground mining methods. It notes that investments in new mines have increased dramatically in recent years and are expected to remain high. Global metal production has increased steadily each year to around 5,000 million tonnes annually, with 17% coming from underground mines. Underground mining techniques have advanced rapidly in recent decades through mechanization, allowing for larger volumes of rock to be excavated safely and efficiently. Contractors now play a larger role in underground development and infrastructure works.
An Essay On Road Safety.pdfAn Essay On Road Safety. Write a short essay on Ro...g5xxy1h3
Road Safety Essay Short Essay on Road Safety in 300 and 500 Words - A .... Essay on Road Safety Traffic Collision Traffic. Essay on Road Safety in English for Class 1 to 12 Students. Essay on Road Safety 10 Lines amp; More Sentences for Students. Write an essay on Road Safety Essay Writing English - YouTube. Why Is Road Safety Important Essay Sitedoct.org. Essay on Road Safety In English - YouTube. Essay on Road Safety for Students and Children 500 Words Essay. Essay On Road Safety PDF. Road Safety Essay - Javatpoint. Short Essay on Road Safety and Its Importance. Road Safety English Essay Road Traffic Collision. Write a short essay on Road Safety Essay Writing English - YouTube. Short essay about road safety. Descriptive Essay on A Talk on Road Safety - StudyRankers Test. Essay on Road Safety - YouTube. Road Safety essay in English English Lessons for Beginners English .... Descriptive Essay on Road Safety - StudyRankers Test. SHORT Essay on Road Safety 200 Words Class 7,8,9,10 - Study-Phi. Road Safety Short Essay in English For Students - Mirage Learning. Essay - Road Safety: NAME: ___________________________ DATE:___________. Essay Road Safety Spm Telegraph. Essay road safety measures. Essay On Road Safety For Students amp; Children In Simple English .... Article road safety essay. Essay on Road Safety for Children and .... Road Safety Awareness Essay Short Essay on Road Safety Awareness for .... Essay On Road Safety in English for Classes 1-3: 10 Lines, Short amp; Long .... ️ Paragraph on importance of road safety. Hot Essays: Essay on Road .... Road Safety Measures - PHDessay.com. Essay on road safety. Essay points on road safety An Essay On Road Safety An Essay On Road Safety. Write a short essay on Road Safety Essay Writing English - YouTube
Road Safety Essay Short Essay on Road Safety in 300 and 500 Words - A .... Essay on Road Safety Traffic Collision Traffic. Essay on Road Safety in English for Class 1 to 12 Students. Essay on Road Safety 10 Lines amp; More Sentences for Students. Write an essay on Road Safety Essay Writing English - YouTube. Why Is Road Safety Important Essay Sitedoct.org. Essay on Road Safety In English - YouTube. Essay on Road Safety for Students and Children 500 Words Essay. Essay On Road Safety PDF. Road Safety Essay - Javatpoint. Short Essay on Road Safety and Its Importance. Road Safety English Essay Road Traffic Collision. Write a short essay on Road Safety Essay Writing English - YouTube. Short essay about road safety. Descriptive Essay on A Talk on Road Safety - StudyRankers Test. Essay on Road Safety - YouTube. Road Safety essay in English English Lessons for Beginners English .... Descriptive Essay on Road Safety - StudyRankers Test. SHORT Essay on Road Safety 200 Words Class 7,8,9,10 - Study-Phi. Road Safety Short Essay in English For Students - Mirage Learning. Essay - Road Safety: NAME: ___________________________ DATE:___________. Essay Road Safety Spm Telegraph. Essay road safety measures. Essay On Road Safety For Students amp; Children In Simple English .... Article road safety essay. Essay on Road Safety for Children and .... Road Safety Awareness Essay Short Essay on Road Safety Awareness for .... Essay On Road Safety in English for Classes 1-3: 10 Lines, Short amp; Long .... ️ Paragraph on importance of road safety. Hot Essays: Essay on Road .... Road Safety Measures - PHDessay.com. Essay on road safety. Essay points on road safety An Essay On Road Safety An Essay On Road Safety
Petroleum geology is the application of geology to explore for and produce oil and gas. It relies on understanding rock structures that can trap hydrocarbons underground. Key techniques used include seismic surveys, which use shock waves to map underground rock layers and structures that may indicate oil and gas traps. Important milestones include the development of the anticlinal theory of trapping in 1883, the invention of the seismograph in 1914, and the introduction of 3D seismic in the 1980s to improve imaging of underground structures.
Brown coal is currently a major source of energy in Victoria, providing 92% of the state's electricity. However, burning brown coal creates significant pollution and carbon dioxide emissions. Closing power stations that use brown coal as fuel would reduce these emissions and lessen environmental damage. While this would eliminate jobs in the brown coal industry, it would improve air quality and public health over the long run. The environmental benefits of closing brown coal power stations outweigh the economic costs.
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Mining and renewable energy scenarios - Sykes - Jun 2017 - Centre for Exploration Targeting
1. John Sykes
Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia
Business School, The University of Western Australia
Director, Greenfields Research Ltd, United Kingdom
Email: john.sykes@research.uwa.edu.au
The tailings pond of the Baotou
rare earths mine in China; Image
by D. Kanter in Bradsher (2010)
3. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation
4. • Attended Oxford Scenarios Programme in 2014 (Ramirez et al., 2014)
• Applied scenario planning in my PhD research with the working title:
“Using scenario planning to improve the integration of geological, technical, economic,
environmental, geopolitical and socio-political factors in minerals exploration management and
strategy”
• Essentially the aim is to understand the ‘future of minerals exploration’ and ergo the ‘future
of mining’;
• Generated four sets of scenarios, which integrated the previous sets at each stage:
– One set generated in an ‘individual’ scenario planning exercise, by myself;
– One set generated by a small group of minerals-focused PhD students;
– Two sets generated by a diverse group of experienced professionals and academics across
exploration, mining, engineering, commerce, law, environmental science, technology, sustainability,
anthropology, history, etc.
• All scenarios were generated using the ‘Oxford Scenario Planning Approach’ (Ramirez &
Wilkinson, 2016) throughout 2015 and 2016, with results now emerging.
5. • By definition, the
only geological
resources that get
developed into
mines are both
economic and
accessible;
• Mineral explorers
are therefore
searching for
undiscovered
resources, which
will be both
economic and
accessible in the
future.
Discovered and
economic but
inaccessible
Undiscovered and
inaccessible but
economic
Discovered
accessible
but
uneconomic
Undiscovered
uneconomic
but
accessible
Geological certainty
Economicviability
Discovered
accessible
and
economic
(Behind)
Discovered but
inaccessible and
uneconomic
Undiscovered and
inaccessible and
uneconomic
Undiscovered
but
accessible
and economic
Source: Sykes et al. (2017)
6. • Two types of issue frustrate
access to economically desired
mineral deposits:
• Socio-political access: relating
to the sustainable development
paradigm, whereby economic
extraction can only occur if
society agrees it outweighs the
social & environmental costs;
• Geopolitical access: relating to
the strategic resources
paradigm, whereby access to
resource can be restricted due
to political or military conflict /
disagreement.
Important
uses, i.e.
‘economic
paradigm’
Accessibility type
2: Geopolitically
restricted
production, i.e.
‘strategic
resources’
paradigm
Accessibility type 1:
Environmentally / socially
restricted production, i.e.
‘sustainable resources’ paradigm
‘China produces 95%
of the rare earth
metals…’
‘The problem with
nuclear power is
not uranium
supply but waste
disposal…’
Source: Sykes et al. (2017)
7. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation
8. • Change in the minerals sector over the long-term can be substantial and complex;
• The example of the change in the copper mining industry during the late nineteenth and
early twentieth century demonstrates this;
• During this period the copper industry switched from primarily ‘artisanal’ underground
mining in the United Kingdom, first to larger scale mining in Chile and the United States,
and then to large-scale, mechanised open pit mining in the United States;
• This switch required (Lynch, 2002; Crowson, 2012; Sykes and Trench, 2014):
– the discovery of new ore bodies (e.g. Bingham Canyon):
– mining industry technological developments, such as flotation and improved smelting techniques;
– external technological developments, such as steam power, mechanisation, and dynamite;
– non-technical changes, such as improved public infrastructure in the USA, the advent of the
corporation and major financing houses, the adoption of free trade, and the advent of the ‘forward
contract’.
• Such multi-factor driven change is unpredictable: even the best experts of the day did not
see the change coming just a few years ahead (Lynch, 2002).
9. 0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1775
1800
1825
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Cuoregrade(%)
Cornwall (UK) Average UK Average
Michigan (USA) Average USA Average
Western World Average World Average
Change from high grade underground
mining in UK to low grade open pits in USA
Further low grade copper
mining innovations
20th century copper
mining technology,
innovation & discovery
package
Steam power
The corporation
Better work
practices
SXEW
Low cost drilling
New geographies
Regime change
Major public
infrastructure
Porphyry
geological
model
Flotation
Improved smelting
& refining
Airborne
geophysics
Computation
Globalisation
Forward contracts
Free trade
Dynamite
Mechanisation
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
ShareofGlobalCuMine
production
United Kingdom Chile USA Other “…in 1898.. Bingham Canyon… was
something of a joke… only barren quartz
rock flecked with a trace of copper. Nobody
could make money out of so little. …the
world’s most famous mining man [Chief
Engineer for the Guggenheims] turned up
his nose. It was ridiculed by the most
respected mining journal of the day. …The
shovels started… in June 1906.”
Decline of UK mining,
rise of Americas
Resurrection
of Chilean
industry
Sources: Lynch, 2002; Schodde, 2010; Crowson, 2012; various personal
communications
10. • The example of the change in the aluminium industry over a similar period to that of the
copper industry, further confirms the substance and complexity of long-term change in the
minerals industry:
• During a this period, the aluminium industry went from a rare ‘specialty’ metal producing a
few hundred thousand tonnes annually to a major industrial commodity, with over 50 million
tonnes of aluminium now produced annually;
• This change required (Lynch, 2002; Sykes et al., 2016):
– the discovery of new bauxite deposits in North America;
– the advent of mechanised open pit mining (as with copper) and the development of the Bayer and
Hall-Heroult processes for converting bauxite into alumina and then into aluminium;
– Strong demand drivers from the military for transportation (which used a lot of the lightweight metal);
– Similarly strong demand from the commercial sector for transportation, especially the newly invented
car, as well as for non-corrosive household goods;
– A willingness by the United States and European governments to subsidise a ‘strategic’ but
nonetheless initially loss-making industry.
12. • The complexity involved with
change in the minerals sector
means that accurate ‘prediction’ is
not possible;
• As such, mineral explorers should
focus on ‘preparing’ for the future
and asking open questions about
what may be;
• In business strategy, this is known
as a ‘scenarios’ approach;
• Geologists may be more familiar
with this approach as ‘multiple
working hypotheses’ (Chamberlin,
1890). Geological certainty
Economicviability
Discovered
accessible
reserve
Scenario
1
Scenario
2
Scenario
3
Undiscovered
accessible
reserve
Discovered Undiscovered
Source: Sykes et al. (2017)
T. C. Chamberlin
13. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation
14. • Scenarios participants were free to explore whatever subject they thought relevant to the future of
the minerals industry, as such each scenario set developed its own ‘theme’;
• The second scenarios set looked at the influence of the energy transition on the mining sector, and
the opportunities presented to the minerals sector by the energy transition;
• Three scenarios were developed along a ‘pathway to the future’ (Sykes et al., 2017):
– Discworld: Based on the Terry Pratchett novel, representing the current world, with ‘old industry’ reliant on
fossil fuels. There is an element of the unknown and not understood about this world. It may last for a few
more years, or many more, it is not clear.
– Wardrobe: Based on ‘The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe’. This is not a scenario, but represents a key
stage on the pathway to the future – a transition, but one which cannot be foreseen.
– Wonderland: Business, innovators, and entrepreneurs drive society through the energy transition in a
‘voluntary’ way. The transition is facilitated by strong, but permissive global institutions. The whole world
transitions, however, at an individual and corporate level, this is a very uncertain world, highly disruptive, and
ruthless.
– Nineteen Eighty-Four: Global conflict, and fossil fuel resource restrictions, force parts of the world (such as
the ‘West’) through the energy transition to maintain energy security. The world divides into some places
which have transitioned, and some which have not. However, at a corporate and individual level, this is a
stable, state-led world, with the minerals and renewables sectors a valuable part of the military-industrial
complex.
16. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation
17. • The holistic ‘big picture’ perspective taken during scenario planning, which focuses on interesting qualitative
analyses, rather than analysing factors quantitively straight away (Ramirez & Mannervik, 2016), helped create a
number of insights;
• Firstly, challenging some preconceptions and assumptions about mining in relation to sustainability and the green
economy, particularly the focus on ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ as a future raw materials supply strategy:
– For several critical commodities there is simply not enough ‘above ground’ stock, which has been previously
mined, for recycling to be a viable supply method alone;
– Developing a recycling-based or ‘circular economy’ is more challenging during a ‘transition’ as we recycle
‘products’ not ‘commodities’, for example:
• lead (an environmentally toxic metal) is currently ideal for the circular economy, as its majority use in car batteries means it
is easy to recycle around one product loop – in a future green economy it is thus a viable proposition that substantially
increased lead battery demand can be met with recycled lead supplies;
• However, the potentially important battery metal, lithium, has many existing uses, from many of which, such as ceramics
and pharmaceuticals, the metal is essentially ‘lost’ as it is used in tiny amounts, making recycling very difficult – as such in
a future green economy it is not a viable proposition that substantially increased lithium battery demand can be met via the
recycled lithium supply, and thus substantial increases in lithium mining would be required;
– Finally, landfill mining, which is where many of these critical metals have ended up, is probably as
environmentally and socially undesirable as ‘actual’ mining – metals that go into landfill are likely ‘lost’ from
the ‘above ground’ stock.
18. 1 100 10000 1000000 100000000
Gallium
Indium
Lithium
Cobalt
Silicon
Vanadium
Nickel
Rare Earths
Germanium
Copper
Manganese
Zinc
Selenium
Cadmium
Lead
Tellurium
Arsenic
Theoretical Total Available for Recycling (tonnes)
Data: USGS
-10 40 90 140
Gallium
Indium
Lithium
Cobalt
Silicon
Vanadium
Nickel
Rare Earths
Germanium
Copper
Manganese
Zinc
Selenium
Cadmium
Lead
Tellurium
Arsenic
Depletion Index for Material Available for Recycling (years)
Image: Guardian (Javad Tizmaghz)
45%
55%
Lead Production (2012)
Primary Secondary
Source: ILA
Image: C-Battery
37%
33%
10%
5%
5% 1%9%
Lithium Consumption (2015)
Batteries Ceramics & Glass
Lubrication Purification
Flux Aluminium
Other (inc. pharma)
Data: USGS
19. • The holistic ‘big picture’ perspective taken during scenario planning (Ramirez & Wilkinson, 2016)
also surfaced that climate change mitigation is complicated by the mining industry itself, which
inadvertently creates complex feedback systems making some appropriate climate change
mitigation ‘action’ more difficult than initially hoped;
• For example, increased scale wind turbines and hybrid car motors in the ‘West’ required higher
performance rare earth magnets, which resulted in increased mining of rare earths in China – the
dominant producer (Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015);
• However, not only does Chinese rare earths mining involve problematic local environmental and
labour practices, but processing rare earths is very energy intensive, such that overall carbon
emissions are higher than using lower quality ferrite magnets on a performance-impact basis
(Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015);
• Overall, rare earth magnets not only did not deliver a better environmental outcome from the
perspective of climate change, but also added in extra difficulties relating to local environmental
and labour conditions associated with mining in China (Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015);
• Further it exposed ‘Western’ companies to geopolitical risk, as most rare earths are currently
sourced from one country – China (Widmer, 2012; Widmer et al., 2015).
20. Energy
transition
requires
electric
vehicles Increased
mining of
rare earths
in China
Questionable
environmental and
social impacts
Switch
back to
ferric
magnets
required?
Electric vehicles
require better
motor magnets
Rare earth
magnets
are
technically
better
Source: Widmer
(2012); Widmer et
al., (2015)
Images: Bradsher
(2010); Reuters
(2015)
21. • Finally, the holistic ‘big picture’ perspective taken during scenario planning (Ramirez & Wilkinson,
2016) also showed that whilst the energy transition is complicated to analyse, this does not mean
change is not possible;
• In line with previous observations about change in the mining sector being driven by multiple forces
(slides 9 & 11), it is possible to see potentially similar combinations of drivers coming together in
the present mining industry:
– Firstly, health concerns associated with diesel emissions in confined underground spaces (Jacobs et al., 2015), assisted by the
recent scandal associated with diesel car emissions at Volkswagen and other major car companies (Ewing, 2015) provides a
health and safety driver for electric powered underground mining;
– This is assisted with a environmentally focused movement towards non-point source carbon emitting electric vehicles; and
improvements in battery technology allowing more competitive electric vehicle operating times and performance;
– In turn, a movement towards underground mining is being driven by improved remote and automated technology, which makes
underground mining lower cost, but also improves safety by removing people from underground;
– In addition, the discovery and depletion of surface mineral deposits (Schodde, 2014) means mining may increasingly take place
at greater depths (requiring underground techniques), whilst underground mining itself also has a more limited social and
environmental footprint in comparison to open pit surface mining;
• All of these factors, could mean that the mining industry is heading away from diesel-driven open pit
mining towards renewables driven underground mining.
22. Movement towards
all electric
underground mines
Focus on greenhouse
gas reduction
Health concerns
surrounding diesel
emissions in
confined spaces
Improved battery
technology
Volkswagen
NOX & SOX
emission
scandal
Movement
towards
underground
mines
Focus on social &
environmental footprint
of surface mining
Fewer surface
mineral deposits
awaiting
discovery
MOVEMENT TOWARDS ALL
RENEWABLE ELECTRIC
UNDERGROUND MINING?
Improved
automation and
remote technology
Safer
underground
mines
Lower cost
underground
mines
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Surface Mine UG Mine Mill
Other
Steel
Equipment, Tyres & Parts
Explosives & Reagents
Fuel & Electricity
Labour
Sources: Schodde (2014); Ewing (2015); Jacobs et al. (2015);
Data: Infomine (2016)
23. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation
24. • The arts and humanities have played a crucial role in both interpreting the findings of the scenarios workshops and communicating
the insights effectively;
• Firstly, a series of famous books have been used as communicative tool (though originally the scenarios had a less coherent set of
names):
– Discworld, e.g. ‘The Colour of Magic’ (Pratchett, 1983);
– The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (Lewis, 1950);
– Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland (Carroll, 1865)
– Nineteen Eighty-Four (Orwell, 1949);
• These books can translate a ‘richer’ array of information more quickly, as recipients can more easily envision themselves in the
various scenarios, based on their existing knowledge of these well-read books;
• For example, for most audiences it is not required to describe the political and social structure of a ‘Nineteen Eighty-Four’ (Orwell,
1949) scenario.
• The richer information conveyed encouraged a deeper critical analysis of the scenarios, hopefully leading to better insights, in the
same way that more creative and holistic insight and debate can be generated from an analysis of Tolstoy’s ‘War and Peace’ (1869),
than from statistics on Napoleon’s failed campaign in Russia, even if the latter are both more accurate and precise.
• For example, Isaiah Berlin’s essay ‘The Hedgehog and the Fox’ (1953) which examined War and Peace and created a classification
of writers and thinkers into two types has subsequently helped inform work on foresight by Philip Tetlock (2006), Clem Sunter (Ilbury
& Sunter, 2011), and Nate Silver (2012). Analyses of the facts and figures of Napoleon's campaign in Russia generally stick to
deductive conclusions about that campaign and Europe at that period in history itself, rather than wider inductions about the world
itself.
29. • The arts also played a crucial role in interpreting the findings of the scenarios
workshops:
• Storyline construction and analysis helped the overall understanding of the structure of
the energy transition in each scenario;
• By using, Kurt Vonnegut’s ‘Shapes of stories’ (Eilam, 2012), it was shown that one
scenario (Wonderland) was a voluntary transition, similar to a ‘creation story’, whilst the
other scenario (Nineteen Eighty-Four) was a forced transition similar to a ‘man in a hole’
storyline;
• The latter ‘man in a hole’ storyline is more popular in ‘Western’ culture (e.g. Hollywood
movies), whereas the former ‘creation’ storyline is more popular in Eastern culture
(Eilam, 2012);
• This may help explain the differing approaches to climate change mitigation in the ‘East’
and ‘West’ (i.e. the latter requires a ‘disaster’ first – we may perhaps partly explain the
recent focus on extreme weather events and climate change) and also help smooth
communication about the issue between differing cultures.
31. • The arts and story telling also helped the scenarios recipients understand the ‘evolving’ nature of
storylines, and the crucial fact that when ‘in’ a story you cannot necessarily tell which way it is
going;
• Again, by using just the ‘shapes of stories’ provided by Kurt Vonnegut (Eilam, 2012), we can see
that firstly the two scenarios and their associated transition storylines (Wonderland – creation and
Nineteen Eighty-Four – man in a hole) may only be the beginning of more complex stories, evolving
with rises and falls over time, so a simple interpretation of these scenarios as a ‘forecast’ should be
avoided;
• And, that at this stage, essentially at the beginning of the energy transition storyline it is not
possible to tell what story we are in – firstly which scenario and storyline (Wonderland – creation
and Nineteen Eighty-Four – man in a hole)? And secondly, is the storyline for each scenario even
right? Is the Nineteen Eighty-Four scenario actually a ‘bad to worse’ story line, or even a ‘Which
way is up?’ storyline (Eilam, 2012)?
• The storyline analysis, borrowed from literary criticism provides a warning not to oversimplify
scenario analysis, but also that such analysis must be constantly updated.
33. • The link between stories and scenarios has been outlined by Freedman (2013); however, with some important differences:
– A story ends, whereas strategy is ongoing, best seen as a series of ongoing strategic decisions (where the next stage is likely affected by the
outcome of the current stage);
– A writer knows the whole storyline, whereas a strategist does not, and can only make interpretations as to what the storyline may be and where it
is heading;
– A writer is in control of all events in the story, whereas a strategist has to be prepared for unexpected events;
• These findings where emergent from the analysis of the scenarios using Kurt Vonnegut’s ‘shapes of stories’ (Eilam, 2012);
• Because unexpected events have to be incorporated into strategic planning, and because strategizing essentially has no end, Freedman (2013)
compares strategic planning to ‘soap opera’ rather than the three-act stories of book, film and theatre that are described by Kurt Vonnegut
(Eilam, 2012);
– Writers of a soap opera have an overall plan for the story over the current stage, but have to continually update it, periodically starting new stages
(linked to previous stages), and in addition have to incorporate interests arising from the outside world (such as a rising interest in equality
requiring a broadening character demography) as well as realities arising from within the cast (such as an actor falling ill who has to be
temporarily written out of the story).
• The balancing of ‘predict and control’ and ‘adaptive’ elements of strategy highlighted by Freedmen (2013) is described by van der Heijden (2005)
as ‘processual strategy’, with a strategic actor seeking to control parts of the ‘transactional environment’ over which they have some influence,
and adapting to issues arising from the ‘contextual environment’ which are beyond their control;
– By preparing for the unexpected (processual strategy) strategic actors can occasionally seize upon an opportunity, which aligns with their
competencies, to expand the transactional environment into the contextual environment and take control of a situation for temporary advantage
(Ramirez & van der Heijden, 2007);
– Scenario planning is a key tool for implementing processual strategy (van der Heijden, 2005; Ramirez and van der Heijden, 2007) as it allows
strategists to understand the changing nature of the contextual environment, and pursue new opportunities by adapting existing strategies or
generating new ones.
35. • It was not just the arts (principally via storytelling) that played a crucial role in developing the
scenarios; the humanities, principally history, were also important;
• An understanding of history is required for an understanding of the future, though importantly this is
not in extrapolation of past to future, but in understanding the patterns of the past and the extremes
of events which can occur and remembering that such patterns and extremes could occur in the
future, along with similar, but entirely new ones (Ramirez et al., 2014);
• For example, in these scenarios the ‘Nineteen Eighty-Four’ scenario is based a number of historical
events in the twentieth century including the a world divided into three blocks (as in the Cold War)
and an energy crisis as occurred in the 1970s, but this time with the blocks divided by religion
(Huntington, 2002), rather than political ideology, following the rise of a powerful Islamic Caliphate,
based on the present-day Islamic State (ISIS);
• The kind of clustering and clashing of apparently unrelated events from the past and present to
create new future scenarios is typical of the inductive approach to scenario planning (Ramirez et
al., 2014; Ramirez & Wilkinson, 2016).
37. Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the
renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation
38. • Returning to the original purpose of the scenarios workshops – to look at the future of
minerals exploration and seek new strategic options for mineral explorers, some new
opportunities were highlighted by the scenarios workshop (and re-confirmed by later
workshops):
1. Focusing on ‘new’ metals, not previously the focus of the mining industry, which may be
critical for future technologies, especially those relating to the energy transition (e.g.
renewables and battery technologies);
2. Trying to gain access to previously ‘socio-politically’ inaccessible areas, usually relating to
sustainability issues, by developing a strong social licence to operate;
3. Trying to gain access to previously ‘geopolitically’ inaccessible areas, again by developing
a strong ‘social licence to operate’;
• However, these strategies require a greater understanding of technology beyond the
mining and exploration sector, and of socio- and geopolitics, than is currently found in
the exploration sector, suggesting broader skills bases are required by mineral
explorers, and exploration teams and companies.
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Nicolson.
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http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/30/business/global/30rare.html
• Carroll, L., 1865. Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland. London: Macmillan.
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http://www.mayaeilam.com/2012/01/01/the-shapes-of-stories-a-kurt-vonnegut-infographic
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Times, 22 September: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/23/business/international/volkswagen-diesel-car-
scandal.html
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2011/sep/28/indonesia-landfill-mountain-scavengers-in-pictures
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