This document outlines the author's PhD journey and research process. It describes how the author initially hypothesized that copper supply issues were due to development constraints, but later realized exploration was actually discovery constrained. The author then developed scenario plans to test the resilience of existing copper mines and projects to an uncertain future, but found they generally failed. This led the author to pursue new ideas for mineral exploration beyond analyzing past trends. The document discusses the value of scenario planning but also its limitations in generating truly novel solutions.
A Mining and Exploration Industry Perspective on the Energy TransitionJohn Sykes
Â
The transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels will both fundamentally change the structure of minerals demand, and the process of mining. The mining and exploration sector in its current form may struggle to re-align mineral production to match these new demand patterns, whilst at the same time undergoing a significant shift in production technology.
The âCET Scenariosâ Programme was established to investigate structural discontinuities, of this kind, in the future of mining. One discontinuity investigated was the energy transition. Two scenarios were developed: one involving a voluntary and complete energy transition driven by industrial innovation and framed by concerns over sustainable development (âWonderlandâ); and another with a forced and partial energy transition driven by government and framed by geopolitical (strategic) concerns over raw materials security (â1984â).
Following the development of the scenarios further research was conducted into the interaction of the mining and exploration sector with the energy transition, sustainable development and resource security, with the aim of better informing corporate strategy.
The strategic recommendations to the mining and exploration sector for re-aligning with changing, but unknown minerals demand patterns, and exploration and production technologies, included techniques for monitoring âprogress in transitionâ, âhorizon scanningâ, market analysis, capabilities analysis, and ensuring strategic coherence.
An emphasis was placed on developing creative, social, adaptable and varied thinking skills amongst mining and exploration sector professionals and researchers.
NOTE: This presentation was made in 2018 not 2011!!!
Graphite mining and the energy transition - Sykes - Nov 2017 - MinEx ConsultingJohn Sykes
Â
This presentation is also available on the MinEx Consulting website, along with a number of other detailed presentations on minerals exploration. All are free to download: http://www.minexconsulting.com/publications/nov2017.html
My PhD Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or: Using Scenarios...John Sykes
Â
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
⢠a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
⢠better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
⢠developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets;
⢠building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
⢠switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
⢠developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
⢠encouraging creativity and ideation;
⢠linking short and long term thinking;
⢠improving the image of exploration;
⢠monitoring local and global socio political, economic and technological trends and
⢠measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
⢠encouraging a collective approach to âbig explorationâ.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the âdiscovery constraintâ on the minerals industry.
Strategic Thinking About Long-Term 'Above Ground' Orebody Complexity Using Sc...John Sykes
Â
AIMS:
1. Explain what is wrong with strategic planning and why we need scenarios;
2. Explain what scenarios are (and their many variants);
3. Show an example of a scenarios programme: the CET âFuture of Explorationâ Scenarios
4. MAIN FOCUS: Discuss the benefits of scenarios as a strategic thinking tool
Scenario planning to improve exploration - Sykes - Nov 2017 - Centre for Expl...John Sykes
Â
The document summarizes the journey and evolution of the author's PhD research topic. It began focused on analyzing existing copper mine projects and reserves but encountered problems incorporating uncertainty about future economic, technical, environmental and socio-political conditions. The research then shifted to using scenario planning to test the adaptability of mining projects to different futures. This identified limitations in applying traditional portfolio approaches. The research further expanded to consider how explorers could discover deposits better aligned with future demands and paradigms around sustainability. The author ultimately framed the question around the mining industry's transition to an unknown future.
Australian gold in 40-years: The need for greenfields explorationJohn Sykes
Â
1. Landmark report looks out 40 years critically includes the impact of resource quality, exploration, and uncertainty;
2. Over the short term (<5 years) production will be dominated by existing mines;
3. Over the medium term (5 10 years) production will come from new mines based on known deposits, however, it is not enough to offset the decline (mainly due to âqualityâ issues);
4. In the long term (10 40 years) exploration success will play a major role in overcoming much of the looming shortfall in gold productionâŚ
5. Consequently, in forty years time almost all of Australiaâs future gold production will come from exploration successesâŚ
6. ...even so, production and revenues are set to fall by half over the next 40
7. Also note that in 13 years half of Australiaâs gold production will come from mines that are yet to be discoveredâŚ
8. âŚbut the weighted average delay between discovery and development is also 13 years
9. For the gold industry to maintain production at current levels over the longer term, it will either need to double the amount spent on exploration or double its discovery performance
10. And finally, with sensitivity studies indicating each additional dollar spent on exploration (over the next ten years) generates extra revenue of ~$11.40 over the next 40 years there is incentive for both industry and government to further invest in gold exploration!
This document outlines the author's PhD journey and research process. It describes how the author initially hypothesized that copper supply issues were due to development constraints, but later realized exploration was actually discovery constrained. The author then developed scenario plans to test the resilience of existing copper mines and projects to an uncertain future, but found they generally failed. This led the author to pursue new ideas for mineral exploration beyond analyzing past trends. The document discusses the value of scenario planning but also its limitations in generating truly novel solutions.
A Mining and Exploration Industry Perspective on the Energy TransitionJohn Sykes
Â
The transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels will both fundamentally change the structure of minerals demand, and the process of mining. The mining and exploration sector in its current form may struggle to re-align mineral production to match these new demand patterns, whilst at the same time undergoing a significant shift in production technology.
The âCET Scenariosâ Programme was established to investigate structural discontinuities, of this kind, in the future of mining. One discontinuity investigated was the energy transition. Two scenarios were developed: one involving a voluntary and complete energy transition driven by industrial innovation and framed by concerns over sustainable development (âWonderlandâ); and another with a forced and partial energy transition driven by government and framed by geopolitical (strategic) concerns over raw materials security (â1984â).
Following the development of the scenarios further research was conducted into the interaction of the mining and exploration sector with the energy transition, sustainable development and resource security, with the aim of better informing corporate strategy.
The strategic recommendations to the mining and exploration sector for re-aligning with changing, but unknown minerals demand patterns, and exploration and production technologies, included techniques for monitoring âprogress in transitionâ, âhorizon scanningâ, market analysis, capabilities analysis, and ensuring strategic coherence.
An emphasis was placed on developing creative, social, adaptable and varied thinking skills amongst mining and exploration sector professionals and researchers.
NOTE: This presentation was made in 2018 not 2011!!!
Graphite mining and the energy transition - Sykes - Nov 2017 - MinEx ConsultingJohn Sykes
Â
This presentation is also available on the MinEx Consulting website, along with a number of other detailed presentations on minerals exploration. All are free to download: http://www.minexconsulting.com/publications/nov2017.html
My PhD Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or: Using Scenarios...John Sykes
Â
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
⢠a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
⢠better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
⢠developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets;
⢠building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
⢠switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
⢠developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
⢠encouraging creativity and ideation;
⢠linking short and long term thinking;
⢠improving the image of exploration;
⢠monitoring local and global socio political, economic and technological trends and
⢠measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
⢠encouraging a collective approach to âbig explorationâ.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the âdiscovery constraintâ on the minerals industry.
Strategic Thinking About Long-Term 'Above Ground' Orebody Complexity Using Sc...John Sykes
Â
AIMS:
1. Explain what is wrong with strategic planning and why we need scenarios;
2. Explain what scenarios are (and their many variants);
3. Show an example of a scenarios programme: the CET âFuture of Explorationâ Scenarios
4. MAIN FOCUS: Discuss the benefits of scenarios as a strategic thinking tool
Scenario planning to improve exploration - Sykes - Nov 2017 - Centre for Expl...John Sykes
Â
The document summarizes the journey and evolution of the author's PhD research topic. It began focused on analyzing existing copper mine projects and reserves but encountered problems incorporating uncertainty about future economic, technical, environmental and socio-political conditions. The research then shifted to using scenario planning to test the adaptability of mining projects to different futures. This identified limitations in applying traditional portfolio approaches. The research further expanded to consider how explorers could discover deposits better aligned with future demands and paradigms around sustainability. The author ultimately framed the question around the mining industry's transition to an unknown future.
Australian gold in 40-years: The need for greenfields explorationJohn Sykes
Â
1. Landmark report looks out 40 years critically includes the impact of resource quality, exploration, and uncertainty;
2. Over the short term (<5 years) production will be dominated by existing mines;
3. Over the medium term (5 10 years) production will come from new mines based on known deposits, however, it is not enough to offset the decline (mainly due to âqualityâ issues);
4. In the long term (10 40 years) exploration success will play a major role in overcoming much of the looming shortfall in gold productionâŚ
5. Consequently, in forty years time almost all of Australiaâs future gold production will come from exploration successesâŚ
6. ...even so, production and revenues are set to fall by half over the next 40
7. Also note that in 13 years half of Australiaâs gold production will come from mines that are yet to be discoveredâŚ
8. âŚbut the weighted average delay between discovery and development is also 13 years
9. For the gold industry to maintain production at current levels over the longer term, it will either need to double the amount spent on exploration or double its discovery performance
10. And finally, with sensitivity studies indicating each additional dollar spent on exploration (over the next ten years) generates extra revenue of ~$11.40 over the next 40 years there is incentive for both industry and government to further invest in gold exploration!
Globalisation & sustainability in mining - Sykes et al - Sep 2017 - Centre fo...John Sykes
Â
This document summarizes a presentation on scenarios for the future of mining considering changing views on globalization and sustainability. It describes four "Dickensian" scenarios named after characters in A Christmas Carol: Scrooge, Marley, Cratchit, and Fezziwig. Scrooge represents a protectionist view focused on profits. Marley favors globalization and free trade for profits. Cratchit prioritizes protectionism and shared value. Fezziwig promotes globalization of shared value. The scenarios draw on shifting political views around these issues to speculate on implications for the mining industry in the long term.
Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging ...John Sykes
Â
Opportunities are not equal
Some nearer âbreak outâ than others fewer solutions
required
Some challenges are more âresolvableâ than others
Some âbreak outsâ will be bigger than others
Key is to focus on those ânear breakoutâ with resolvable (i.e.
technical, geological) issues, and that have a big pay off
Why is developing a new mine so difficult? - Oct 2013 - John P Sykes - Centre...John Sykes
Â
Developing a new mine is difficult due to several factors:
1) Mining is a "wasting asset" industry that requires constant renewal of exploration to find new resources as old mines are depleted. However, exploration takes place over long timescales while success is judged in the short-term.
2) There is a limited exploration search space and resources found do not always be economic to mine given technical and economic constraints.
3) Different actors in the mining industry, such as juniors vs majors, have differing risk horizons and incentives that impact development. Focusing on the "Horizon 2" development stage is key.
4) For a project to be successful, it must be "
Renewable energy and battery metals - Sykes & Trench - Nov 2017 - Centre for...John Sykes
Â
The document discusses the renewable energy transition's impact on battery and strategic metal markets. It notes that increased demand for renewables and energy storage is creating new opportunities for metals but also straining supply chains. Some metals like rare earths are becoming "critical" due to potential restrictions on production from geopolitical, environmental or social factors. While mining companies and investors initially piled into battery and energy metals markets, growth has been uneven and some companies have faced failures or bankruptcies. The document examines evidence of past transformative metal market growth and considers which energy metals may have the most potential for growth but also the least constraints, though environmental and social issues add further complexity to projections.
Western Australian Iron Ore - Laurent et al - Jul 2017 - UWA Business SchoolJohn Sykes
Â
This document provides an overview and interpretation of key events in the global iron ore market between 2002-2016. It discusses how rapid growth in Chinese demand and imports led to a price boom that encouraged increased supply, both from high-cost producers and more efficient major Australian producers. While the majors were able to maintain production, many smaller producers struggled after 2014 when demand and prices declined from record highs. The document analyzes factors such as the cost curves of different producers and China's changing production and import levels that influenced market conditions over this period.
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al ...John Sykes
Â
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al - Dec 2014 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Using scenarios to guide copper exploration targeting strategies - Sykes - Se...John Sykes
Â
Using scenarios to guide copper exploration targeting strategies - Sep 2015 - Sykes - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Mining and renewable energy scenarios - Sykes - Jun 2017 - Centre for Explora...John Sykes
Â
John Sykes conducted scenario planning exercises to explore the future of minerals exploration and the mining industry. He generated four sets of scenarios through individual and group exercises with professionals from various fields. The scenarios explored how factors like technological development, economic conditions, environmental and social issues, and geopolitics could impact the mining industry. One set of scenarios specifically looked at how the transition to renewable energy could influence the mining sector and present opportunities to explore for minerals needed for green technologies. The scenarios suggested several possible futures for how the energy transition might unfold and its effects on mining.
Economic perspective on deep and under cover exploration - Trench et al - Mar...John Sykes
Â
Economic perspective on deep and under cover exploration - Trench et al - Mar 2015 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Non-technical risks and their impact on mining - Trench, Sykes & Packey - Oct...John Sykes
Â
The document discusses non-technical risks in the mining industry and their impact. It begins with classifying non-technical risks such as country, commodity price, exchange rate, and corporate risks. Country risk is particularly complex with factors like resource nationalism and infrastructure. Price and exchange rate risks are usually the biggest non-technical risks. The document provides perspectives on considering non-technical risks early, integrating them with technical risks, taking ownership of non-technical risks, making choices about non-technical risks, and constantly monitoring them as risks can change over the project life cycle.
Energy transition: mining perspective - Sykes et al - Feb 2017 - Centre for E...John Sykes
Â
This document discusses the energy transition from a mining and exploration industry perspective. It covers topics like batteries, renewable energy sources, battery metals, renewables metals, supply and demand trends, price volatility, case studies, and scenarios for how the energy transition may progress. Diagrams show historical growth trends for various metals and the potential constraints on future supply. The conclusion discusses different paradigms and scenarios for how geopolitics and business capabilities may influence winners and losers.
Finding the copper mine of tomorrow - Sykes et al - Dec 2013 - Curtin Univers...John Sykes
Â
This document discusses perspectives on copper resource depletion from an economist, scientist, and geologist. The economist views resources as subject to inevitable decline due to higher costs and lower grades, but believes innovation can overcome this. The scientist sees resources as fixed stocks that will eventually be depleted. The geologist acknowledges declining grades but notes quality is uncertain and more discovery is needed. All agree sustainability is key and must consider social, economic, and environmental factors, not just resource life. Further research is needed to better target reserves for the future and enable sustainable development through continued exploration.
Future(s) of mineral exploration - Sykes et al - Apr 2017 - Centre for Explor...John Sykes
Â
This document summarizes the key findings from a study using scenario planning to explore the future of minerals exploration. The study investigated uncertainties around predicting the economic viability and accessibility of undiscovered mineral deposits. Three main scenarios were developed: 1) the industry adapts to emerging changes, 2) new ideas are generated to open up new exploration opportunities, and 3) the future may be difficult to foresee even with scenario planning. The study highlights opportunities around exploring new commodities, behind socio-political and geopolitical barriers, and notes limitations in the industry's ability to develop new ideas beyond optimizing existing asset portfolios. Scenario planning was used to compare exploration strategies against multiple potential futures rather than making single predictions.
Research on the impact of asteroid mining on global equitySĂŠrgio Sacani
Â
This document proposes a model to measure the impact of asteroid mining on global equity over 60 years. It involves:
1. Developing a Unified Equity Index (UEI) model using factors like GDP, education, patents, and stability to measure baseline global equity.
2. Simulating the effects of asteroid mining between 2025-2085, considering mining capabilities, output value, and how this impacts the UEI factors.
3. Analyzing three potential futures for asteroid mining and proposing policy options to help ensure its development enhances global equity for all nations.
Why is developing a new mine so difficult? - Oct 2013 - John P. Sykes - Centr...John Sykes
Â
Globally there are problems in bringing new mine capacity on stream. With little new âgreenfieldsâ exploration taking place at this time, the pipeline of high-quality mine projects is not being replenished. The problem for the mining industry is that minerals exploration takes place over long timescales, however, âsuccessâ is judged along much shorter timescales. Addressing this paradox is a challenge for all in minerals exploration management. This study has sought to address this topic by building on the authorâs tacit knowledge, gained through experience in the mining industry, combined with a review of the business management and strategy literature. Emergent from this research are multiple ways for examining mining industry problems and a new approach to developing high-level strategies for facilitating minerals exploration.
Why is developing a new mine so difficult? - Dec 2013 - Sykes et al - Univers...John Sykes
Â
This document provides a conceptual exploration of why developing a new mine is so difficult from a management strategy perspective. It discusses that while mineral commodity prices have reached historical highs, limited new mine capacity has started up due to the disconnect between short-term exploration funding cycles and long development timelines for mines. The development stage from discovery to production is identified as particularly high risk and problematic. Drawing from management strategy literature, the document argues exploration should "begin with the end in mind" by targeting deposits that are not just discoverable but also developable, mineable, and sustainable in the long-term. This narrows the exploration search space and opens up new areas to focus on developing projects more likely to become successful operating mines.
Resources versus Reserves - Sykes & Trench - Aug 2014 - Centre For Exploratio...John Sykes
Â
This document discusses the need for a systems-based approach to understanding mineral exploration and mine development. It argues that exploration must consider economic factors from the beginning in order to focus on discovering accessible and economic reserves, rather than just resources. A truly systemic view requires understanding how social, political, and environmental issues can constrain projects. It also requires mining geologists to think more broadly and develop interdisciplinary knowledge to better communicate across technical disciplines and with external stakeholders. Implementing these ideas will require changes to how the industry develops mining professionals.
Globalisation & sustainability in mining - Sykes et al - Sep 2017 - Centre fo...John Sykes
Â
This document summarizes a presentation on scenarios for the future of mining considering changing views on globalization and sustainability. It describes four "Dickensian" scenarios named after characters in A Christmas Carol: Scrooge, Marley, Cratchit, and Fezziwig. Scrooge represents a protectionist view focused on profits. Marley favors globalization and free trade for profits. Cratchit prioritizes protectionism and shared value. Fezziwig promotes globalization of shared value. The scenarios draw on shifting political views around these issues to speculate on implications for the mining industry in the long term.
Australia's advantage on the periodic table and the significance of emerging ...John Sykes
Â
Opportunities are not equal
Some nearer âbreak outâ than others fewer solutions
required
Some challenges are more âresolvableâ than others
Some âbreak outsâ will be bigger than others
Key is to focus on those ânear breakoutâ with resolvable (i.e.
technical, geological) issues, and that have a big pay off
Why is developing a new mine so difficult? - Oct 2013 - John P Sykes - Centre...John Sykes
Â
Developing a new mine is difficult due to several factors:
1) Mining is a "wasting asset" industry that requires constant renewal of exploration to find new resources as old mines are depleted. However, exploration takes place over long timescales while success is judged in the short-term.
2) There is a limited exploration search space and resources found do not always be economic to mine given technical and economic constraints.
3) Different actors in the mining industry, such as juniors vs majors, have differing risk horizons and incentives that impact development. Focusing on the "Horizon 2" development stage is key.
4) For a project to be successful, it must be "
Renewable energy and battery metals - Sykes & Trench - Nov 2017 - Centre for...John Sykes
Â
The document discusses the renewable energy transition's impact on battery and strategic metal markets. It notes that increased demand for renewables and energy storage is creating new opportunities for metals but also straining supply chains. Some metals like rare earths are becoming "critical" due to potential restrictions on production from geopolitical, environmental or social factors. While mining companies and investors initially piled into battery and energy metals markets, growth has been uneven and some companies have faced failures or bankruptcies. The document examines evidence of past transformative metal market growth and considers which energy metals may have the most potential for growth but also the least constraints, though environmental and social issues add further complexity to projections.
Western Australian Iron Ore - Laurent et al - Jul 2017 - UWA Business SchoolJohn Sykes
Â
This document provides an overview and interpretation of key events in the global iron ore market between 2002-2016. It discusses how rapid growth in Chinese demand and imports led to a price boom that encouraged increased supply, both from high-cost producers and more efficient major Australian producers. While the majors were able to maintain production, many smaller producers struggled after 2014 when demand and prices declined from record highs. The document analyzes factors such as the cost curves of different producers and China's changing production and import levels that influenced market conditions over this period.
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al ...John Sykes
Â
Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level - Sykes et al - Dec 2014 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Using scenarios to guide copper exploration targeting strategies - Sykes - Se...John Sykes
Â
Using scenarios to guide copper exploration targeting strategies - Sep 2015 - Sykes - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Mining and renewable energy scenarios - Sykes - Jun 2017 - Centre for Explora...John Sykes
Â
John Sykes conducted scenario planning exercises to explore the future of minerals exploration and the mining industry. He generated four sets of scenarios through individual and group exercises with professionals from various fields. The scenarios explored how factors like technological development, economic conditions, environmental and social issues, and geopolitics could impact the mining industry. One set of scenarios specifically looked at how the transition to renewable energy could influence the mining sector and present opportunities to explore for minerals needed for green technologies. The scenarios suggested several possible futures for how the energy transition might unfold and its effects on mining.
Economic perspective on deep and under cover exploration - Trench et al - Mar...John Sykes
Â
Economic perspective on deep and under cover exploration - Trench et al - Mar 2015 - Centre for Exploration Targeting / Curtin University / University of Western Australia
Non-technical risks and their impact on mining - Trench, Sykes & Packey - Oct...John Sykes
Â
The document discusses non-technical risks in the mining industry and their impact. It begins with classifying non-technical risks such as country, commodity price, exchange rate, and corporate risks. Country risk is particularly complex with factors like resource nationalism and infrastructure. Price and exchange rate risks are usually the biggest non-technical risks. The document provides perspectives on considering non-technical risks early, integrating them with technical risks, taking ownership of non-technical risks, making choices about non-technical risks, and constantly monitoring them as risks can change over the project life cycle.
Energy transition: mining perspective - Sykes et al - Feb 2017 - Centre for E...John Sykes
Â
This document discusses the energy transition from a mining and exploration industry perspective. It covers topics like batteries, renewable energy sources, battery metals, renewables metals, supply and demand trends, price volatility, case studies, and scenarios for how the energy transition may progress. Diagrams show historical growth trends for various metals and the potential constraints on future supply. The conclusion discusses different paradigms and scenarios for how geopolitics and business capabilities may influence winners and losers.
Finding the copper mine of tomorrow - Sykes et al - Dec 2013 - Curtin Univers...John Sykes
Â
This document discusses perspectives on copper resource depletion from an economist, scientist, and geologist. The economist views resources as subject to inevitable decline due to higher costs and lower grades, but believes innovation can overcome this. The scientist sees resources as fixed stocks that will eventually be depleted. The geologist acknowledges declining grades but notes quality is uncertain and more discovery is needed. All agree sustainability is key and must consider social, economic, and environmental factors, not just resource life. Further research is needed to better target reserves for the future and enable sustainable development through continued exploration.
Future(s) of mineral exploration - Sykes et al - Apr 2017 - Centre for Explor...John Sykes
Â
This document summarizes the key findings from a study using scenario planning to explore the future of minerals exploration. The study investigated uncertainties around predicting the economic viability and accessibility of undiscovered mineral deposits. Three main scenarios were developed: 1) the industry adapts to emerging changes, 2) new ideas are generated to open up new exploration opportunities, and 3) the future may be difficult to foresee even with scenario planning. The study highlights opportunities around exploring new commodities, behind socio-political and geopolitical barriers, and notes limitations in the industry's ability to develop new ideas beyond optimizing existing asset portfolios. Scenario planning was used to compare exploration strategies against multiple potential futures rather than making single predictions.
Research on the impact of asteroid mining on global equitySĂŠrgio Sacani
Â
This document proposes a model to measure the impact of asteroid mining on global equity over 60 years. It involves:
1. Developing a Unified Equity Index (UEI) model using factors like GDP, education, patents, and stability to measure baseline global equity.
2. Simulating the effects of asteroid mining between 2025-2085, considering mining capabilities, output value, and how this impacts the UEI factors.
3. Analyzing three potential futures for asteroid mining and proposing policy options to help ensure its development enhances global equity for all nations.
Why is developing a new mine so difficult? - Oct 2013 - John P. Sykes - Centr...John Sykes
Â
Globally there are problems in bringing new mine capacity on stream. With little new âgreenfieldsâ exploration taking place at this time, the pipeline of high-quality mine projects is not being replenished. The problem for the mining industry is that minerals exploration takes place over long timescales, however, âsuccessâ is judged along much shorter timescales. Addressing this paradox is a challenge for all in minerals exploration management. This study has sought to address this topic by building on the authorâs tacit knowledge, gained through experience in the mining industry, combined with a review of the business management and strategy literature. Emergent from this research are multiple ways for examining mining industry problems and a new approach to developing high-level strategies for facilitating minerals exploration.
Why is developing a new mine so difficult? - Dec 2013 - Sykes et al - Univers...John Sykes
Â
This document provides a conceptual exploration of why developing a new mine is so difficult from a management strategy perspective. It discusses that while mineral commodity prices have reached historical highs, limited new mine capacity has started up due to the disconnect between short-term exploration funding cycles and long development timelines for mines. The development stage from discovery to production is identified as particularly high risk and problematic. Drawing from management strategy literature, the document argues exploration should "begin with the end in mind" by targeting deposits that are not just discoverable but also developable, mineable, and sustainable in the long-term. This narrows the exploration search space and opens up new areas to focus on developing projects more likely to become successful operating mines.
Resources versus Reserves - Sykes & Trench - Aug 2014 - Centre For Exploratio...John Sykes
Â
This document discusses the need for a systems-based approach to understanding mineral exploration and mine development. It argues that exploration must consider economic factors from the beginning in order to focus on discovering accessible and economic reserves, rather than just resources. A truly systemic view requires understanding how social, political, and environmental issues can constrain projects. It also requires mining geologists to think more broadly and develop interdisciplinary knowledge to better communicate across technical disciplines and with external stakeholders. Implementing these ideas will require changes to how the industry develops mining professionals.
The document discusses the impending scarcity of materials critical to electronics and advanced technologies. It notes that prices of rare earth metals like neodymium have risen dramatically in recent years, and shortages are expected to severely impact production processes in the near future, between 2011-2019. While higher prices may not directly affect all applications, securing supply is a major concern for manufacturers. The document examines historical parallels like Britain's response during WWII, and proposes solutions like substitution, recycling, policy coordination, and reducing consumption to manage austerity. It argues all sectors must urgently address this complex problem to avoid economic and social risks.
50 years visions of the next space generation. Study presented by Bee Thakore...Bijal (Bee) Hayes-Thakore
Â
On the occasion of 50 years of spaceflight, Space Generation Advisory Council undertook a study to map the visions for the next 50 years, led by a small group of volunteer members - Bee Thakore, Alex Karl, Tiffany Frierson, Kathleen Coderre, Agnieszka Lukaszczyk. This is a executive summary of the collection of 750 unique space visions of our futures and the recommendations offered youth groups actively involved in space activities and advocacy to industry and UN leaders. Presented at various conferences and seminars - including UN COPUOS, International Space University Symposium, IAF, IAA and IAC.
Energy, Materials, Information. Introduction to Circular ThinkingDario Cottafava
Â
The document provides an introduction to circular thinking and economy by discussing key concepts such as planetary boundaries, limits to growth, regenerative design, industrial ecology, biomimicry, and urban mining. It examines topics like global energy and materials consumption, renewable energy trends, embodied energy and carbon of products, and strategies for transitioning to a circular economy. A range of frameworks and theories contributing to the circular economy paradigm are also reviewed, from cradle to cradle to performance and blue economies.
The document outlines the AS and A2 Geography curriculum for 2008, including unit topics, assessments, and sample exam questions. The AS course covers global challenges such as natural hazards and globalization, as well as geographical investigations like crowded coasts and place branding. The A2 course examines contested planet issues like resource use, biodiversity loss, and development gaps. Students take exams involving data responses, essays, and research questions.
Furthering asteroid resource utilization in the next decade though technology...Amara Graps
Â
This document proposes activities to further asteroid resource utilization in the next decade through addressing science knowledge gaps. It provides an overview of the current state of asteroid mining efforts and identifies key areas requiring further research, such as improving knowledge of the near-Earth asteroid population and their compositions. Specific activities are recommended, including enhancing public asteroid databases, increasing spectroscopic characterization of asteroids, and analyzing samples returned from asteroids to better understand their interiors and resource potential. The proposed activities would advance both asteroid science and the development of asteroid mining technologies and industries.
This document analyzes Chinese and English literature on coal mine accidents in China using data mining algorithms. It finds that 99% of studies are published in Chinese or English, with Chinese authors leading research globally. Chinese studies focus on accident patterns and causes, while English studies examine miners' injuries and typical disaster mechanisms. Research topics in Chinese literature are generally later than in English due to differences in audience, policy, and evaluation systems. After 2018, Chinese studies increasingly focus on AI technology for accident analysis, while English studies' hotspots remain unchanged. Both literatures around 2019 discuss "public opinion", with Chinese studies aiming to guide public opinion for the government and English studies critically examining news authenticity and China's safety strategy.
The New Photonomy - offering an exponentially fruitful abundance worldwide, P...Michael P Totten
Â
Elevated solar photovoltaics sited on a fraction of existing cultivated lands, technically referred to as Agrivoltaic microgrids (plus batteries-controls), promises enhanced economic security for farmers, who generate onsite power and export excess power, while continuing to grow crops, pasture grasses and livestock grazing below the solar panels. Energy security is also enhanced as a result of the distributed design, or what the U.S. rural electric cooperatives call the new "agile fractal grid." The model builds upon the U.S. Dept. of Defense decree that all military bases transition to islandable microgrids capable of operation when the grid or pipelines collapse (whether due to physical attacks, cyberterrorism, cybercrime, or climate-triggered catastrophes). Recent analysis found it would only take a couple of percent of existing cultivated lands sited with agrivoltaics to generate nearly 100 of total global energy demand for all purposes. This 84-slide presentation provides both overview and details about this multi-benefits accruing energy service option: collapsing most GHG emissions from the energy sector (which now comprises 3/4th of total global emissions), a dozen other energy-spewed chemical SCARs ("social cost of atmospheric releases), eliminate need for massive land conversion to biofuels and threats to biodiversity destruction, and 90 percent decline in water extraction. All documented with citations and references.
Panel: Financing AI for Climate
Thursday October 26 - 4:45-5:30 ET/1:45-2:30 PT (in person, online zoom)
Moderator: Jim Spohrer, program committee member (https://www.linkedin.com/in/spohrer/)
Co-Organizer: Peetak Mitra (https://www.linkedin.com/in/peetak/) [we should have 1-2 slide from you about you and your company, I can present for you or run a short video]
Panelist: James E. Mister (https://www.linkedin.com/in/jmister/)
Panelist: Honour Masters (https://www.linkedin.com/in/honour-masters-20428753/)
Panelist: Matthew Blain (https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-blain-vc/)
Panelist: Sylvia Spengler (https://www.linkedin.com/in/sylvia-spengler-26805650/)
Panelist: Erica Briscoe (https://www.linkedin.com/in/erica-briscoe-702a4511/)
AAAI FSS conference website: https://aaai.org/conference/fall-symposia/aaai-2023-fall-symposium-series/
AI & Climate subconference series: https://www.climatechange.ai/events/aaaifss2023
This document outlines an applied sustainability session on Kauai that will cover various topics throughout the day. The session will begin with a discussion on sustainability thinking and frameworks. It will then cover the current state of sustainability on Kauai, including challenges around peak oil and climate change. The afternoon sessions will focus on reinventing island systems through renewable energy, sustainable food, and alternative transport. It will also address retrofitting existing infrastructure for resilience through green business, waste management, and green building. Optional video presentations are also listed that feature leading thinkers on sustainability.
This document discusses three dimensions of foresight: difference, depth, and diversity.
Difference refers to the idea that the future context will not be the same as the present. Depth emphasizes experiencing hypothetical futures viscerally. Diversity acknowledges that there are multiple possible futures rather than a single future. Examples like experiential scenarios and games aim to illustrate these dimensions and help people navigate change. Foresight practices incorporating difference, depth and diversity can help design preferable alternatives and make wise choices.
TCFD Workshop: Practical steps for implementation â Wendy McGuinnessMcGuinness Institute
Â
Across Wednesday 16 October and Thursday 17 October 2019, the McGuinness Institute partnered with Simpson Grierson to host two workshops exploring the Recommendations of the TCFD in Auckland and Wellington. This presentation was given by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the McGuinness Institute.
This document provides an introduction to a bachelor's thesis that examines the circular economy from the perspectives of the EU, Finland, and the Lahti region. It discusses the background and need for moving to a circular economy model given the finite nature of planetary resources and the unsustainability of the current linear "take-make-waste" economic system. The research will explore definitions and principles of the circular economy, case studies from Europe and Finland, and interviews with professionals regarding circular economy actions, challenges, and future plans in Finland. The goal is to better understand and promote awareness of the circular economy.
Similar to Using scenarios to explore the future of mining (20)
Exploration and discovery: Do frameworks and organisation matter?John Sykes
Â
Framing business complexity in exploration:
First, some things around risk & value complexitiesâŚ..
Then, some thinking around everyday frameworks and standardsâŚ..
Some thoughts on a framework for project-level complexityâŚ
And a simple example: The Sinclair Zone Cesium Mine, Western Australia
Finally, the exploration organisation study that keeps on givingâŚ
A global overview of the geology and economics of lithium productionJohn Sykes
Â
Lithium demand is growing fast, driven by a wide range of battery applications, which are in turn changing the structure of
demand, the lithium supply chain and potentially raw material requirements though much still remains uncertain;
â˘
Geologically âbrineâ salars and âhard rockâ pegmatites remain the most important lithium deposit types in terms of
production and undeveloped resources, however, there are some interesting emerging sedimentary / clay deposits and
unconventional brine concepts and lithium remains very âunder exploredâ globally;
â˘
Spodumene pegmatites in Australia are the fastest growing source of supply, however, long term competitiveness may be
dependent on successful downstream integration targeting the battery industry;
â˘
The concept of a Western Australian âLithium Valleyâ is possible, despite high costs, due to the number of quality mines,
proximity to Asia, and the unit reduction in freight costs associated with the low grade spodumene concentrate , in addition
to the âcluster effectâ of many minerals businesses, specialists and students;
â˘
The âgreenâ association of lithium use presents a challenge of âstrategic coherenceâ to explorers and miners impacting
decisions around exploration, mining, investors, stakeholders, and leadership;
â˘
But remember, we are in an unsustainable âlithium boomâ of high prices and high volume growth future long term growth
of the industry is reliant on structurally lower prices, and thus structurally lower costs.
Sandstone gold endowment - Davies et al - Apr 2017 - Centre for Exploration T...John Sykes
Â
1) The document analyzes the gold endowment potential of the Sandstone Greenstone Belt in Western Australia by comparing it to the better explored Agnew Gold Camp using a mineral systems framework.
2) It estimates the total residual gold endowment of the oxide zone to be 2.2 million ounces and the total potential primary zone endowment to be 12.1 million ounces based on similarities between the two areas.
3) Applying this mineral systems resource assessment approach at different scales across the entire Yilgarn Craton could help identify relatively underexplored areas with high prospectivity.
Business of greenfields exploration - Sykes & Trench - Apr 2017 - Centre for ...John Sykes
Â
The document discusses the business of greenfields minerals exploration. It notes that the minerals exploration sector is under strain, with junior explorers struggling to raise funds and exploration budgets being cut. Greenfields exploration, which is perceived as higher risk, has been particularly affected. The document examines the traditional business case for greenfields exploration in searching for better quality mineral deposits rather than just more resources. However, it argues that the exploration sector needs to improve efficiency and success rates. It provides ideas on how greenfields exploration could improve, such as focusing on predicting ore quality rather than just presence, and taking a more holistic approach. Finally, the document proposes a renewed business case that incorporates the need for explorers to obtain a social license to operate
The Energy Transition: Miners Perspective - Sykes et al - Nov 2016John Sykes
Â
The document discusses the energy transition underway as the world shifts from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources and electric vehicles. This transition is creating new opportunities for metals used in batteries and renewable technologies, but the growth in demand and markets for these "energy metals" has been mixed so far. The mining sector and investors have invested heavily in lithium, rare earths, and other energy metals in recent years. However, navigating the complex energy transition will be challenging, as major market shifts have occurred unpredictably in the past and were complicated by technological innovations and societal changes. The transition presents opportunities but also uncertainties that explorers, miners and investors must navigate carefully.
Putting the Co-operative into Co-operative Research Centre - Trench & Sykes -...John Sykes
Â
The document discusses strategies for effective cooperation within Cooperative Research Centres (CRCs). It notes that cooperation is most effective when the payoffs are higher than working alone, stakeholders are balanced and aligned, and there is mutual trust and respect. However, achieving effective cooperation can be challenging, as stakeholders may have contradictory desires or priorities that cause innovation to become incremental rather than transformative. The document also draws from research by Adam Grant on different types of individuals - givers, takers, and matchers - and how successful cooperation involves a balance of these types working towards shared goals. It emphasizes the importance of incentivizing and inspiring cooperation through clear priorities and removing constraints.
Challenges of rare earths - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Argus Rare Earths Confe...John Sykes
Â
Challenges of rare earths - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Argus Rare Earths Conference - Greenfields Research / Rowton Ltd. / Centre for Exploration Targeting / UWA Business School / The University of Western Australia
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfield...John Sykes
Â
Battery metals & the energy transition - Wright et al - Sep 2016 - Greenfields Research / Rowton Ltd / Centre for Exploration Targeting / The University of Western Australia
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART
63662490260Kalyan chart, satta matta matka 143, satta matka jodi fix , matka boss OTC 420, Indian Satta, India matka, matka ank, spbossmatka, online satta matka game play, live satta matka results, fix fix fix satta namber, free satta matka games, Kalyan matka jodi chart, Kalyan weekly final anl matka 420
The Most Inspiring Entrepreneurs to Follow in 2024.pdfthesiliconleaders
Â
In a world where the potential of youth innovation remains vastly untouched, there emerges a guiding light in the form of Norm Goldstein, the Founder and CEO of EduNetwork Partners. His dedication to this cause has earned him recognition as a Congressional Leadership Award recipient.
Discover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling Serviceobriengroupinc04
Â
Unlock your kitchen's true potential with expert remodeling services from O'Brien Group Inc. Transform your space into a functional, modern, and luxurious haven with their experienced professionals. From layout reconfiguration to high-end upgrades, they deliver stunning results tailored to your style and needs. Visit obriengroupinc.com to elevate your kitchen's beauty and functionality today.
High-Quality IPTV Monthly Subscription for $15advik4387
Â
Experience high-quality entertainment with our IPTV monthly subscription for just $15. Access a vast array of live TV channels, movies, and on-demand shows with crystal-clear streaming. Our reliable service ensures smooth, uninterrupted viewing at an unbeatable price. Perfect for those seeking premium content without breaking the bank. Start streaming today!
https://rb.gy/f409dk
Enhancing Adoption of AI in Agri-food: IntroductionCor Verdouw
Â
Introduction to the Panel on: Pathways and Challenges: AI-Driven Technology in Agri-Food, AI4Food, University of Guelph
âEnhancing Adoption of AI in Agri-food: a Path Forwardâ, 18 June 2024
NIMA2024 | De toegevoegde waarde van DEI en ESG in campagnes | Nathalie Lam |...BBPMedia1
Â
Nathalie zal delen hoe DEI en ESG een fundamentele rol kunnen spelen in je merkstrategie en je de juiste aansluiting kan creĂŤren met je doelgroep. Door middel van voorbeelden en simpele handvatten toont ze hoe dit in jouw organisatie toegepast kan worden.
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART
SATTA MATKA DPBOSS KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN MATKA MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA TIPS SATTA MATKA MATKA COM MATKA PANA JODI TODAY BATTA SATKA MATKA PATTI JODI NUMBER MATKA RESULTS MATKA CHART MATKA JODI SATTA COM INDIA SATTA MATKA MATKA TIPS MATKA WAPKA ALL MATKA RESULT LIVE ONLINE MATKA RESULT KALYAN MATKA RESULT DPBOSS MATKA 143 MAIN MATKA KALYAN MATKA RESULTS KALYAN CHART KALYAN CHART
AI Transformation Playbook: Thinking AI-First for Your BusinessArijit Dutta
Â
I dive into how businesses can stay competitive by integrating AI into their core processes. From identifying the right approach to building collaborative teams and recognizing common pitfalls, this guide has got you covered. AI transformation is a journey, and this playbook is here to help you navigate it successfully.
đđ§đŻđđ˘đĽ đđĄđ đ đŽđđŽđŤđ đ¨đ đđ§đđŤđ đ˛ đđđđ˘đđ˘đđ§đđ˛ đ°đ˘đđĄ đđđđđđđđâđŹ đđđđđŹđ đđđđđŤđ˘đ§đ đŹ
Explore the details in our newly released product manual, which showcases NEWNTIDE's advanced heat pump technologies. Delve into our energy-efficient and eco-friendly solutions tailored for diverse global markets.
Tired of chasing down expiring contracts and drowning in paperwork? Mastering contract management can significantly enhance your business efficiency and productivity. This guide unveils expert secrets to streamline your contract management process. Learn how to save time, minimize risk, and achieve effortless contract management.
1. The Role of Strategic Consulting in the Resources Industries of Australia and Indonesia
My PhD Story
Or: How I Learned To Stop
Worrying And Love Mining
Or: Using Scenarios To
Explore The Future Of Mining
John Sykes
1. Centre for Exploration Targeting (CET), School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia
2. Business School, The University of Western Australia
3. MinEx Consulting,Australia
4. Greenfields Research, United Kingdom
20 February 2020
CET Recent Advances in Economic Geology Symposium
Image:Dr. Strangelove(A.V. Club)
2. This is presentation is about stories not data (yet)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 2 of 74
Video: David Comberg;Images:Wikipedia
3. There are a few different types of stories
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 3 of 74
Images:Maya Eilam
4. My PhD Story is Another âMan In A Holeâ* Story
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Scene 5: The âNovelâ
Scenarios
Scene 6: The âStar Wars
vs Star Trekâ Scenarios
Scene 7: The âDickensianâ
Scenarios
The Final Scene
Directorâs Commentary
Images:Maya Eilam; * It usuallyis men , sorry⌠#metoo
The Origin Story
Scene 1: The Plan
Scene 2: Change &
Complexity
Scene 3: A New Plan
Scene 4: The
âMedievalâ Scenarios
Slide 4 of 74
5. The Origin Story
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 5 of 74
6. Discovering Problems With Price Forecasts
In the short-run demand
determines commodity
prices, but over the long-run
it is supply (i.e. mines &
exploration) that determines
commodity prices.*
- Tilton & Guzman, 2016, Mineral
Economics & Policy
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
* This is why CRU employed geologists, such as myself, as
well as mining engineers, metallurgists, etc
Sources: CRU Group
Economistsâ fault⌠(the forecast, not the GFC)
Geologistsâ fault⌠(the forecast and the price?), i.e. me!
Slide 6 of 74
7. Discovering Problems With Copper Projects
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Sources: CRU Group
Slide 7 of 74
8. Discovering Problems Elsewhere In Minerals
Humphreys (2010) points
out that not only were
commodity price bears
caught out by the impact
of Chinese
industrialisation on
commodity prices in 2005-
6, but that even the
commodity price bulls
underestimated the scale
of the impact on prices. He
also noted that many
mining companies also
did not seem ready for the
increase in demand, as
they struggled to bring on
new supply.
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
More of my
troublesome price
forecasts, this
time in tin..
More troublesome
mine projects that
I was trying to
analyse, this time
in rare earths..
Sources: Humphreys(2010), ITRI, GreenfieldsResearch
Slide 8 of 74
9. Scene 1: The Plan
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 9 of 74
10. Into Academia: And Back To Copper Projects
My first hypothesis based on all my âindustry knowledgeââŚ
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Mine production was falling behind demand⌠âŚbut explorers were finding plenty of new reserves
âŚthus it must be a âdevelopmentâ problem!
Source:Sykes & Trench (2014)
Slide 10 of 74
11. From Development To Discovery Constrained
My first hypothesis based on all my âindustry knowledgeâ⌠was probably wrong!
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Not all resources can be developed economically⌠âŚand not all resources can be developed sustainablyâŚ
âŚactually we were âdiscovery constrained and thus had to find better resources!
ââŚinvestigate an alternative, less
capital-intensive design of the
Olympic Dam open-pit expansionâŚ
align with the Companyâs cost control
strategy in the current economic
environmentâŚâ
- BHP Billiton, 6th Dec 2012
âAnglo American has given
notice that it is withdrawing
from the Pebble copper
project in Alaska.â
- Anglo American, 16th Sept 2013
âRio Tinto gifts stake in
Northern Dynasty Minerals to
Alaskan charities.â
- Rio Tinto, 7th Apr 2014
Slide 11 of 74
12. From Development To Discovery Constrained
My first hypothesis based on all my âindustry knowledgeâ⌠was probably wrong!
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Explorers were finding low quality resources⌠âŚthat were prone to socio-political problemsâŚ
âŚthus it was actually a âdiscoveryâ problem!
Source:MinExConsulting,Frankset al., (2014)
Slide 12 of 74
13. A Discovery Solution!
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
We can find âbetterâ quality projects⌠âŚby looking in new places (or âsearch spacesâ)
âŚby definition, the best discoveries are made first in any given area (as the have the strongest signature)
Source:Sykes (2014)
Slide 13 of 74
14. Suggesting A Simple Three-Stage Solution
All I needed to do was:
1. Calculate which parts of the
existing copper resource were
economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the
existing copper resource were
âsustainableâ (i.e. socially &
environmentally accessible);
3. Use these criteria as exploration
targets for new discoveries.
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
DISCOVERED
ECONOMICbut
INACCESSIBLE
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLEbut
ECONOMIC
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE but
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
UNECONOMIC but
ACCESSIBLE
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
ECONOMIC
FEASIBILITY
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE
and ECONOMIC
(Behind)
DISCOVERED but
INACCESSIBLE
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLE
and
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
but ACCESSIBLE
ECONOMIC
Source:Sykes (2014)
Slide 14 of 74
15. Scene 2: Change & Complexity
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 15 of 74
16. Mistake 1: I Forgot How Complex The Future Is
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share
of
Global
Cu
Mine
production
United Kingdom Chile USA Other
Decline of UK mining,
rise of Americas
Resurrection of
Chilean industry
âŚin 1898⌠Bingham Canyon⌠was something of a joke⌠only barren quartz rock flecked with a trace of copper. Nobody could
make money out of so little. âŚthe worldâs most famous mining man [Chief Engineer for the Guggenheims] turned up his nose. It
was ridiculed by the most respected mining journal of the day. âŚThe shovels started⌠in June 1906. (Lynch, 2002)
Source:Sykes (2014)
20th century coppermining
technology, innovation &
discovery package
Dynamite
Steam power
The corporation
Mechanisation
Major public
infrastructure
Flotation
Improved smelting &
refining
Airborne
geophysics
Porphyry
geological
model
Better work
practices
SXEW
Computation
Low cost drilling
Globalisation
Forward contracts
Free trade
New geographies
Regime change
Slide 16 of 74
17. Mistake 2: I Forgot How Different The Future Is
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Source:Sykes et al., (2016)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1900
1912
1924
1936
1948
1960
1972
1984
1996
2008
Growthin market size indices of copper
and aluminium 1900-2014 (1900 = 1)
Cu Index Al Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1900
1912
1924
1936
1948
1960
1972
1984
1996
2008
Growthin market size indices of copper
and nickel 1900-2013 (1900 = 1)
Cu Index Ni Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1999
2006
2013
Growth in market size indices of copper
and uranium 1950-2013 (1950= 1)
Cu Index U Index
Once again analysing other commodity markets was providing validation, but also frustration!
Slide 17 of 74
18. Hence The Decision To Use Scenario Planning
Instead for Stage 3, how about:
3. Assess which of the
âeconomic & sustainableâ
resources would remain
so over the long term
considering appropriate
technical, economic,
environmental and socio-
political uncertainty about
the future (i.e. using
scenario planning).
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
GEOLOGICALCERTAINTY
ECONOMIC
FEASIBILITY
âACCESSIBLE
RESERVEâ
MULTIPLE
âHYPOTHETICAL
RESERVESâ
MULTIPLE
âHYPOTHETICAL
RESERVESâ
MULTIPLE
âHYPOTHETICAL
RESERVESâ
âHYPOTHETICAL
RESERVEâ
DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED
Source:Sykes (2014)
Slide 18 of 74
19. Scene 3: A New Plan
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 19 of 74
20. A Man in Metaphorical Theoretical & Practical Hole
1. Calculate which parts of the existing copper
resource were economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the existing copper
resource were âsustainableâ (i.e. socially &
environmentally accessible);
3. Assess which of the âeconomic & sustainableâ
resources would remain so over the long term
considering appropriate technical, economic,
environmental and socio-political uncertainty
about the future (i.e. using scenario planning).
1. Data difficult to source,* time-consuming
to analyse and already becoming
available from other researchersâŚ
2. Data is non-existent, time-consuming to
gather, requires new (mathematically
complex) methods to analyse and already
becoming available from other
researchersâŚ
3. This just sounds like a really BIG job!
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Worst of all! I was still looking at current mine projects (i.e. the ideas of
the past) not the genuinely new âexploratoryâ ideas required!
Slide 20 of 74
21. Another New Plan
1. Calculate which parts of the existing copper
resource were economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the existing copper
resource were âsustainableâ (i.e. socially &
environmentally accessible);
3. Assess which of the âeconomic & sustainableâ
resources would remain so over the long term
considering appropriate technical, economic,
environmental and socio-political uncertainty
about the future (i.e. using scenario planning).
1. Find a quick way to show that the existing
copper project pipeline is not âfuture
proofâ
2. Try to come up with some new ideas for
explorationâŚ
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Fortunately scenario planning is suitable for testing strategic
âadaptabilityâ and for new idea generation
?
Slide 21 of 74
22. Scene 4: The âMedievalâ Scenarios
(or its about the actors not the stage)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 22 of 74
23. âŚso I developed some scenarios
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
OPTIMISATION
Increased
Decreased
CRUSADES (or Stark) COUNTING HOUSE (or Lannister)
PEASAENTâS REVOLT (or Tarth) UNDER SEIGE (or Targaryen)
Increased
Decreased
Slide 23 of 74
OPPORTUNITY
24. âŚand tested the best copper mines (they failed)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 24 of 74
25. âŚand the best copper projects (even worse)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 25 of 74
26. Four types of minerals asset were identified, BUT
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
âNo worriesâ assets:
good in any future
âBig betâ (scratchies)
assets: good in a limited
range of futures
âWait & seeâ assets (sheâll
be right): may work in a
few different futures â
not clear yet
âBadâ assets
(yeah-nah): bad in
any future!
Avoid these!
Donât exist!
(fantasy)
Slide 26 of 74
27. Weâll Struggle To Adapt Via Portfolio Selection
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
A few âbig betsâ A âno worriesâ strategy?
What would be an
original âno worriesâ
strategy?
A few âwait & seeâ options
The application of âportfolio selectionâ or diversification by the mining sectorâŚ
Sources:Markowitz(1952), Erdmannet al.,(2015), Sykes & Trench (2016)
Slide 27 of 74
28. Focusing On The Explorer, Not The Discovery
Discovered projects are a âknownâ and thus well-
analysed and optimisedâŚ
âŚif explorers are truly working in the unknown, then the
explorers are the only known entity upon which research
can be conductedâŚ
The final research question became:
âCan explorers find significant, better quality mineral
deposits that are both economically viable and more in
line with contemporary and likely future demands on
the mining industry?â
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Source:John et al., (2010); Image:Shutterstock
Slide 28 of 74
29. First I Needed To âUpframeâ The Research
âIf a problem cannot be
solved, enlarge it.â
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Sources: Wack (1985), Ramirez & Wilkinson(2016)
Slide 29 of 74
30. The âNovelâ Scenarios
(the new metals search space)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 30 of 74
31. Investigating The Transition Into The Future
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Wonderland
1984
Left behind
High tech
Discworld
NOW
(An unknown
number of
economic
cycles to come)
Low tech
(Beyond which is
the unknown)
âEconomic paradigmâ
âSustainability
paradigmâ
âStrategic paradigmâ
âTransitionâ
Sources:Sykes & Trench (2017); Images:Amazon
Slide 31 of 74
32. WONDERLAND?
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
GREEN
ECONOMY
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
SILICON
VALLEY
PROTECTIONISM
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
ISIS
DISRUPTION
SUSTAINABILITY
PARADIGM VOLATILITY
CETA DEAL
INNOVATION
PARIS
AGREEMENT
Industry, facilitated by government, drives a collective, global energy transition via
collaboration and innovationâŚ
GLOBALISATION TESLA
Slide 32 of 74
âŚbut there is a dark side â remember âAlice in Wonderlandâ is a dystopia
33. 1984?
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
NEW
WORLD
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
BREXIT
PROTECTIONISM
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
ISIS
OLD
WORLD
MILITARY-
INDUSTRIAL
COMPLEX
TRUMP
STRATEGIC
PARADIGM
WAR
PROTECTIONISM
PUTIN
ISIS
Geopolitics and conflict forces a government-led energy transition in the fossil-fuel poor
parts of the world
Slide 33 of 74
âŚbut itâs not all bad â miners and explorers would be part of the âprotected eliteâ
34. There are two types of political âaccessibilityâ
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 34 of 74
35. The âStar Wars vs Star Trekâ
Scenarios
(the socio-political search space)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 35 of 74
36. Transforming The Future Inspired by H&S
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
âTrapped in
a cycleâ
âBreaking the
cycleâ
19th Century 1970s
Compliance Culture Excellence
Late 20th century
HEALTH
&
SAFETY
Mid-20th Century Now?
Compliance Culture Excellence
Future?
SOCIAL
LICENCE
Sources:Sykes et al., (2016); Images:Amazon, Wikipedia
Slide 36 of 74
37. But we need to think about technologyâŚ
Remember:
Drones are military technology used
for spying on people!
Big data is military technology used
to spy on people!
Remote âlairsâ are what the villains
have!
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the stuff
of dystopiaâŚ
#techlash #neoluddism
#deletefacebook #deletegoogle
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Remote exploration
Yes No
Local
engagement
Yes
No
Attack of
the Drones
The Last Jedi
(or field geo)
The Search
for Spock
The Final
Frontier
Slide 37 of 74
38. âŚand the social implications of itâŚ
Which seems the most
plausible skill set to recruit in
the future?
Compare it to the previous
slideâŚ
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Remote exploration
Yes No
Local
engagement
Yes
No
Data
science
Field
geology
Social and
geoscience
Social
and data
science
Slide 38 of 74
39. Yet, weâve hardly begun to innovate!
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Miners appear to be âsustainersââŚ
Bigger,
Bigger,
BiggerâŚ
âŚand now automated!
âŚthe oil industry seems a
bit more disruptive?
Based on:C.M. Christensen,1997, The InnovatorâsDilemma;
Images:miniature-construction-world.co.uk;The Telegraph; Shutterstock;mining-technology.com;stanford.edu;lancs.ac.uk
20 February 2020
Slide 39 of 74
40. Past visions of the future of mining are the same
âŚby 2135⌠there will hardly be any miners underground. Minerals will be won
either by robotized machinery or by in situ extraction of the valuable
ingredients. âŚbiotechnology will be increasingly employed in situ to convert
metals into a readily soluble form. Mineral processing would then become
largely a matter of handling solutions, thus obviating the need for crushing and
grinding.â
- Arvi Parbo, former BHP Chairman, in S.D. Strauss, 1986, Trouble in the Third Kingdom, p210
The radically different view of the future of mining has been the same for a long time. Why?
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 40 of 74
41. Mining is behind the curveâŚ
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Source: HBR
Slide 41 of 74
42. The current mining industry innovation package
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Incremental
e.g. mining
Proximal e.g.
petroleum
Radical e.g.
rest of world
The âfringeâ!
Drones
Remote mining
Big data
Driverless
trucks
Slide 42 of 74
43. Moving towards the fringe & radical innovation
Four key areas of science and
technology (Turney, 2010):
Biotechnology & genetics
Computer science, IT & AI
Nanotechnology
Brain science (neuro, psych,
& AI)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 43 of 74
44. Moving towards the fringe & radical innovation
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 44 of 74
45. The âDickensianâ Scenarios
(the geopolitical search space)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 45 of 74
46. The Dickensian scenarios focused on politics
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Progressive
Conservative
Globalist
Protectionist The next few
decades?
Ebenezer Scrooge
the protectionist capitalist
e.g. Donald Trump
Mr. Fezziwig
the globalising philanthropist
e.g. Justin Trudeau
Jacob Marley
the globalising capitalist
e.g. Xi Jinping?
Bob Cratchit
the protectionist worker
e.g. Jeremy Corbyn
Tiny Tim(s)
the vulnerable of society
i.e. most social movements
Slide 46 of 74
47. A brief history lesson: the rise of free trade
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Socialist
Capitalist
UK Whigs
âCorn Lawâ Tories
Free Trading
Protectionist / Mercantilist
Lack of official party representation for working
classes â franchise still limited to middle and
upper classes
âLeft wingâ
âRight wingâ
Early 19th century
Slide 47 of 74
48. A brief history lesson: the rise of free trade
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Liberal
Conservative
âGladstoneâ
Liberals
âPeelâ & âDisraeliâ
Conservatives
Free Trading
Protectionist / Mercantilist
Lack of official party representation for localist
and protectionist values â franchise still not fully
expanded (esp. women) â liberals take âtop-downâ
approach to social progress (e.g. Gladstone) â a
similar attitude is seen with âTory Paternalismâ
(Disraeli)
âLeft wingâ âRight wingâ
Late 19th century
After âwinningâ the battle
on free trade, the Whig
agenda moves from
economic liberalism to
social liberalism
Conservatives adopt âliberal
economicsâ and become a free-
trading / colonialist party, but
with conservative values â
Tamworth Manifesto
Slide 48 of 74
49. A brief history lesson: the rise of labour
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Socialist
Capitalist
AUS âLaborâ
UK âLabourâ
US âDemocratsâ
Free Trading
Protectionist
Rise of the labour movement
including rights for workers and
protection of jobs from free-trade
and technological advance
(luditism)
âLeft wingâ
âRight wingâ
Early 20th century
âLiberalismâ effectively destroyed by the
rise of the labour movement following full
male franchise, which gives workers a
direct say in democracy â their attitude is
more protectionist than the liberals
AUS âLiberalsâ
UK âConservativesâ
US âRepublicansâ
Parties now divide neatly
between left (workers,
protectionist) and right
(capitalist, free trading)
All four points of the
spectrum are covered
by the two poles of
parties
Slide 49 of 74
50. A brief history lesson: the rise of progressivism
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Progressive
Conservative
UK âLabourâ
Free Trading
Protectionist
âLeft wingâ
âRight wingâ
Late 20th century
Rise of social progress movements to provide rights to minority groups either
officially or unofficially locked out or disadvantaged by the prevailing system.
Includes indigenous people and social movements such as gay rights and
feminism â the latter having a more international flavour though as they seek
to transform the lives of similar minorities across the globe.
AUS âLiberalsâ
UK âConservativesâ
US âRepublicansâ
Parties still divide fairly neatly between left and right,
however left wing parties are starting to drift away from
protectionism and localism, as the focus moves to using
capital to fund socially progressive activities and
globalisation to promote a socially progressive agenda
(e.g. cosmopolitanism)
AUS âLaborâ
US âDemocratsâ
âGreenâ parties in
AUS, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
âIndigenousâ movements
e.g. Mabo in AUS, First
Nations in CAN
âSocialâ movements
e.g. gay rights,
feminism etc.
Slide 50 of 74
51. A brief history lesson: the rise of globalisation
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Progressive
Conservative
UK Blairite
âNew Labourâ
Globalist
Localist
âLeft wingâ âRight wingâ
Early 21st century
Left-right divide is now
largely defined by
progressive or
conservative social values
(i.e. the culture wars), with
most major parties
following a globalist,
capitalist agenda. The
right sees this as an
opportunity to maximise
economic development
and open up free trade,
whilst the left sees this as
an opportunity to
internationalise
progressive values and
use the proceeds of
capitalism to fund socially
progressive activities
AUS âLiberalsâ
UK âConservativesâ
US âRepublicansâ
Lack of official party
representation of
localist /
protectionist values
AUS âLaborâ
US Clinton â3rd
Way Democratsâ
âGreenâ parties in
AUS, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
âIndigenousâ movements
e.g. Native Title in AUS,
First Nations in CAN
âSocialâ movements
e.g. gay rights,
feminism etc.
Only two points
of the spectrum
are covered by
the parties
Most official
parties are broadly
global capitalist
Slide 51 of 74
52. A brief history lesson: the return of protectionism
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Progressive
Conservative
UK Blairite âNew
Labourâ (now âoldâ)
Globalist
Protectionist
âLeft wingâ âRight wingâ
The 2010s
AUS Abbott
âLiberalsâ
US Bush/GOP
âRepublicansâ
Rise of protectionist
parties with both
progressive and
conservative social values,
either as rebel parts of
existing parties or as new
parties
AUS âLaborâ
Clinton /
Obama
âDemocratsâ
âGreenâ parties in
AUS, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
âIndigenousâ
movements e.g.
Native Title in AUS,
First Nations in CAN
âSocialâ movements
e.g. gay rights,
feminism etc.
All four points of the spectrum are
covered by often very divided
political parties
Most âofficialâ
parties are broadly
global capitalist
UK âOld Labour â
Corbynist (now
ârenewedâ)
Sanders
Democrats
UK Cameron
âConservativesâ
AUS Turnbull
âLiberalsâ
UKIP Trump
âRepublicansâ
Tea Party
âRepublicansâ
Slide 52 of 74
53. Politics is like a playgroundâŚ
Swings
The normal âback and forthâ of democratic
politics;
In a long-term industry to not to react to
every âswingâ as can be wasteful and
isolating;
The mining industry generally over-reacts
to the short-term.
Roundabouts
⢠Longer term structural shifts
that re-shape all sides of
politics;
⢠These are important to adapt to
as they will only reverse over
the long-term;
⢠The mining industry
generally misses these shifts.
Climbing frames
⢠Pre-determined elements of the
future that are yet to play out;
⢠You cannot avoid tackling these
issues, even if you want to;
⢠Often are recognised by the
industry, but nonetheless are
difficult to act upon.
Sources: Wack, 1985; Sykes et al., 2017
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 53 of 74
54. âŚyou have to climb the climbing frame!
Is the shift against âsustainable developmentâ a swing,
roundabout, or climbing frame?
A climbing frame: difficult to envision a developed society paying less
attention to environmental and social conditions e.g. rise of environmentalism
in Chinese middle class.
Is the shift against âglobalisationâ a swing, roundabout, or
climbing frame?
A roundabout (maybe): a key aspect of âglobalisationâ is âglocalismâ i.e. the
strengthening of local identity and rights as everything is placed in global
context â the franchise âMcDonaldisationâ of the world.
Image: Local style McDonaldâs fish burger in
Singapore
Image: Environmental protests in China
Images: South China Morning Post, Wikipedia; Sources: Ritzer, 1993; Steger, 2013; The Economist, 2016; Sykes et al., 2017
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 54 of 74
55. How are we doing, so far?
BHP Billiton
⢠âThink Bigâ campaign &
name change (dropping
âBillitonâ) about restoring
domestic pride;
⢠Rating: B
⢠Needs to be backed up
by âlocalâ efforts.
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Sandfire / Tintina
⢠Launched âMake
Montana Great Againâ
campaign for Black Butte
project shortly after
Trump victory;
⢠Rating: C
⢠Focus on the trend
(roundabout), not the
personality (swing).
WA Royalties
⢠Strong reaction by iron ore
and gold industry to tax
hikes;
⢠Probably inevitable (WA
bust) â should have
mitigated this earlier;
⢠Rating: D
⢠The industry is making long-
and short-term enemies on
many sides.
Sources: BHP, 2017; Fitzgerald, 2017; Radisich et al., 2017a, 2017b; Sykes et al., 2017; Trench & Sykes, 2017; Trench et al., 2017
Slide 55 of 74
56. A localist âbottom-upâ effort is required
We should learn our lessons from the
frontline workers of Rio Tinto and Virgin
Australia at Perth Airport!*
Social licence is âlocalâ â it requires a
bottom up effort, not a top-down one;
Hence, why this is a presentation for
explorers, not about âexploration geologyâ;
You and your exploration team will be
leading us into the futureâŚ
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
* See appendix for explanation of the story (source: Sykes & Trench, 2017d); Images: Virgin Australia; Rio Tinto
Slide 56 of 74
57. The Final Scene
(or cliff hanger?)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 57 of 74
58. Some New Search Spaces?
The final scenarios workshops identified three new âconceptualâ search spaces for mineral explorers:
1. Previously underexplored minor commodities associated major structural socio-
economic change, such as the âenergy transitionâ (one form of âsustainable resourceâ);
2. Regions with restricted socio-political access that may be overcome with a better
âsocial licence to operateâ (another form of âsustainable resourceâ);
3. Converting geopolitical concerns into exploration opportunities, i.e. âstrategic
resourcesâ.
In addition to the already identified âunder coverâ search space.
But this will require some changes in exploration industry capabilities!
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 58 of 74
59. We May Not Be Seeing What Is Already Here
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
The âDee Whyâ (one of the
Sydney ferries) in the early
1930s, sailing past the Sydney
Harbour Bridge under
construction.
Source: Wikipedia
Slide 59 of 74
60. Because We Do Not See What Is Not There
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
A (pre-Columbus) world map from Rome in 1478 based on a map in Ptolemyâs âGeographiaâ.
Note how this
map fills up all
the space â all
the world is
âknownââ no
exploration
required!
Note that maps
had not been
updated since
the Classical Era
(+1,300 years
prior!)
Source:Reed.edu
Slide 60 of 74
61. Because We Do Not See What Is Not There (but is)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
The (post-Columbus) âSalvatiâworld map from Florence, circa 1527.
This map invites
exploration!
(Look at all the space that
needs filling)
Source:Reed.edu
Slide 61 of 74
62. Seeing What Others Do Not is a Skill
ThisâŚ
- Hunting
- Illumination
- Connections
- Coincidences
- Curiosities
- Desperation
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 62 of 74
Not thisâŚ
Images:GoogleBooks;Wikipedia
63. But geologists are perceptive and creative!
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
The classic text on using drawing to
develop creativity through perception
(alsoused in âThinkingSkillsâ workshop)
Now adapted by geologist Emma
Jude to teach the same to geologists
(article in Geoscientist)
Sample page from upcoming
textbook by Prof. Matt Genge on
âGeological Field Sketches and
Illustrations: A PracticalGuideâ
Slide 63 of 74
64. Geologists are good at seeing whatâs not there!
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 64 of 74
One of those âclassicâ UNCOVER photos: Mount Browne Inlier,NSW
(Source:Rowe, 2017)
65. The exploration capabilities of the future?
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
⢠a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
⢠better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
⢠developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets and other ânew & differentâ situations;
⢠building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
⢠switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
⢠developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
⢠encouraging creativity and ideation;
⢠linking short and long-term thinking;
⢠coping with and exploiting exogenous change;
⢠improving the image of exploration;
⢠monitoring local and global socio-political, economic and technological trends and
⢠measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
⢠encouraging a collective approach to âbig explorationâ.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the âdiscovery constraintâ on the minerals industry.
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 65 of 74
66. Acknowledgements
Firstly, I would like to acknowledge the Noongar people, who remain the spiritual and cultural custodians of the land, upon which The University of Western
Australia is situated, and pay my respect to Elders both past and present.
I would like to acknowledgethe support of my PhD supervision team: Allan Trench (CET, UWA), Mark Jessell (CET,UWA), Campbell McCuaig (BHP), and Nicolas Thebaud (CET,
UWA); as well as the financial support of a Centre for Exploration Targeting âAd hocâ scholarship and an Australian Government ResearchTraining ProgramScholarship.
I would also like to thank the participants in the three CET âFuture of Minerals Explorationâ Scenarios Workshops: Jonathan Bell (CET, Curtin), Leila Ben Mcharek (Muslim Studies, UWA), Rob
Bills (Emmerson Resources), Aida Carneiro (Mining Engineering, UWA), Ivy Chen (CSA Global), Aaron Colleran (Evolution Mining), Tim Craske (Geowisdom), Liz Dallimore (KPMG), Deon
deBruin (Diamond Indicator Minerals), Edoaldo Di Dio (Calibre Projects), Joe Dwyer (HiSeis), Mayara Fraeda (CET-UWA), Nick Franey (NFJ Consulting), Simon Gatehouse (BHP), Jeremie
Giraud (CET, UWA), Marcelo Godefroy Rodriguez (CET, UWA), Chris Gonzalez (CET, UWA), Isabel Granado (Information Systems, Curtin), Matt Greentree (Ausgold), David Groves (CET, UWA),
Mike Haederle (Rio Tinto), Mike Hannington (Metalicity), Nick Hayward (Teck), Amanda Hellberg (Law, UWA), Paul Hodkiewicz (Anglo American), Amy Imbergamo (Environmental Science,
UWA), Constanza Jara (CET, UWA), Caroline Johnson (CSIRO), Heta Lampinen (CET, UWA), Helen Langley (Law, UWA), John Libby (Digirock), Martin Lynch (Author of âMining in World Historyâ),
Stuart Masters (CS-2 Consulting), Michael Mead (Gold Fields), Adele Millard (Anthropology, UWA), Joanne Moo (Environmental Science, UWA), Suzanne Murray (Billabong Gold), Sandra
Occhipinti (CET, UWA), Ahmad Saleem (CET, UWA), Ian Satchwell (PerthUSAsia Centre), Robert Sills (Sills Strategic Materials), John Southalan (Law, UWA), David Stevenson (CET, UWA),
Narendran Subramaniam (Transmin), Siobhan Sullivan (Plant Biology, UWA), Daniel Sully (Teck), Janet Sutherland (Business, Curtin), Marcus Tomkinson (MMG), Marnie Tonkin
(Anthropology, UWA), Jan Tunjic (CET, UWA), Will Turner (Millenium Minerals), Stanislav Ulrich (AngloGold Ashanti), Jessica Volich (BHP), Wenchao Wan (Chemical Engineering, UWA), Peter
Williams (HiSeis), Marcus Willson (CSA Global) and Afira Zulkifli Tahmali (Environmental Science, UWA).
I wouldalso like to thank Steve Beresford (IndependenceGroup), Jon Hronsky (Western Mining Services), RobbieRowe (NextGen Geological),Richard Schodde(MinEx Consulting),John Vann (Anglo American) and
the members of #explorationtalk for the continuedsupport, guidance,and championingof this research.
This work has also benefittedfrom the contributionsof manyotherpeople who have co-authoredpapers, provided input,or contributedin some otherway, whetherthey knewit or not.These include David Abraham (TREM, IAGS), Saleem Ali
(Universityof Delaware),Tim Andrews(WesternPower),Lucy Ash (IndependentGeologist),MilesAshton (BaronPropertyGroup), Alex Atkins (Alex Atkins Associates),RogerBade (WhitmanHoward),Anthony Barich (Aspermont),Laurent
Barrere(Gryzlly Resources),GeoffBatt(MBA, UWA), Kristie Batten(MiningNews.net),Anselm Boehl (BHP),Carla Boehl(WASM, Curtin),Doug Brewster(IndependentExplorationGeologist),ZenoushkaBynevelt(BHP), Sarah Connolly(Gold
Fields),Jess Currell (EY), Sam Davies(CET, UWA), Aaron Dixon (EY),Nick Gardiner(CET, Curtin),Chris Gemell(Wood Mackenzie),Mike Gershon(GershonLearning),Pietro Guj (CET, Curtin),Nancy Hanna(CSIRO), Jess Harman(BHP), Matt
Horgan(Alcoa),Simon Jowitt (Universityof Nevada, Las Vegas),MatthewKanakis(KPMG), PeterKettle (ITRI), Cho Khong (Shell),Cui Lin (ITRI), Paul Miller(Vedanta),Gavin Mudd (RMIT University),Tom Mulqueen(ITRI), Janusz Olbromski
(Brickworks),Ian Radisich (South32),Rafael Ramirez (Universityof Oxford), LaurenceRobb (Universityof Oxford),Paul Robinson (CRU), CynthiaSelin (ArizonaState University),Bindi Shah (MBA, UWA), NatalieStaffurth(Terravision
Exploration),Mark Tyrer (ImperialCollege),Kees van der Heijden(Universityof Oxford),Jess Volich(BHP), AngelaWilkinson(World EnergyCouncil),and Josh Wright(RowtonConsolidated).
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 66 of 74
67. Key References
⢠Sykes, J.P., 2014, Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level (The Hollywood Edition), Centre for Exploration Targeting Membersâ Day,
December, Perth (WA).
⢠Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2014, Chapter 14: Finding the copper mine of the 21st century: Conceptual exploration targeting for hypothetical copper
reserves, in Special Publication Number 18: Building exploration capability for the 21st century, (eds., K.D. Kelley & H.C. Golden), Society of Economic
Geologists: Littleton (CO), 273-300.
⢠Sykes, J.P., Wright, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Discovery, supply and demand: From Metals of Antiquity to critical metals, Applied Earth Science, 125, 1, 3-
20.
⢠Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Using Scenarios to Investigate the Long-term Future of Copper Mining and Guide Exploration Targeting Strategies,
International Mine Management Conference, Brisbane (QLD), 22-24 August.
⢠Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2017, The Impact of the Renewable Energy Transition on Battery and Strategic Metal Markets [presentation], AIG Battery &
Strategic Metals Seminar, Perth (WA), 10 November.
⢠Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., Craske, T., Dwyer, J., Subramaniam, N., Sullivan, S.T.M., & Turner, W., 2016, Transforming the Future of Minerals
Exploration, AusIMM New Zealand Branch Conference, Wellington, 4-6 September, 407-418.
⢠Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., & Jessell, M., 2017, Charles Dickens on the (potentially) changing role of globalisation and sustainability in the
long-term future of mining and exploration, Tenth International Mining Geology Conference, Hobart (TAS), 20-22 September, 239-256.
⢠Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., & McCuaig, T.C., 2017, The Future(s) of Minerals Exploration [poster], TARGET Conference, Perth (WA), 19-21 April.
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 67 of 74
68. Other References
⢠Erdmann, D., Sichel, B., & Yeung, L., 2015, Overcoming Obstacles to Effective Scenario Planning, McKinsey Quarterly, June, 1-6.
⢠Franks, D.M., Davis, R., Bebbington, A.J., Ali, S.H., Kemp, D., & Scurrah, M., 2014, Conflict Translates Environmental and Social Risk into Business
Costs, PNAS, 111, 21, 7576-7581.
⢠Fukuyama, F., 1992, The End of History and the Last Man, Penguin Books: London.
⢠Humphreys, D., 2010, The Great Metals Boom: A Retrospective, Resources Policy, 35, 1-13.
⢠Markowitz, H., 1952, Portfolio Selection, The Journal of Finance, 7, 1, 77-91.
⢠Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A., 2016, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press: Oxford.
⢠Rigby, D., & Bilodeau, B., 2007, A Growing Focus on Preparedness, Harvard Business Review, 85, 7/8, 21-22.
⢠Rowe, R., 2017, Unlocking Australiaâs Hidden Potential: An industry roadmap, AIMRA International & UNCOVER Australia, 1 September, Melbourne, VIC,
152p.
⢠Silver, N., 2012, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, Penguin Books: London.
⢠Taleb, N.N., 2007, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Allen Lane: London.
⢠Tetlock, P.E., 2005, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press: Princeton (NJ).
⢠Tetlock, P.E., & Gardner, D., 2015, Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, Random House Books: London.
⢠Tilton, J.E., & Guzman, J.I., 2016, Mineral Economics and Policy, Routledge: Abingdon (UK).
⢠Wack, P., 1985, Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids, Harvard Business Review, 63, 6, 139-150.
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 68 of 74