For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com Mike PeQueen from HighTower Advisors and a Speaker at the marcus evans Private Wealth Management Summit held in Las Vegas, NV Dec 8-10, delivered his presentation entitled "What to Expect in the Year Ahead: The Global Market Outlook for 2014". Join the 2014 Private Wealth Management Summit along with leading regional investors in an intimate environment for a highly focused discussion on the latest investment strategies in the market. For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com

1. Economic Outlook
for
2014 and Beyond
Mike PeQueen CFA CFP
PeQueen, CFA,
HighTower Las Vegas
2360 Corporate Circle, Suite 160
Henderson, NV 89074
(702)567-5100

2. Global Macro Themes
China Slower Growth & Reform
US Energy Boom
US Recovery Continues
Europe Fragile Recovery
Japan Reflation Experiment
Emerging M k t Under P
E
i Markets U d Pressure
Stronger Dollar
2

3. As the World Turns
3

4. Real GDP Growth
China
US
Brazil
Canada
UK
Germany
Japan
J
Euro Area
Spain
Greece
Source: Bloomberg
2013 A
7.6
1.7
17
2.5
1.7
1.4
0.5
1.9
-0.4
-1.3
13
-4.0
2014 E
7.5
2.6
26
2.5
2.3
2.3
1.7
1.55
1.0
0.45
0 45
-0.35
2015 E
7.2
3.0
30
2.9
2.5
2.3
1.75
1.2
1.4
1.1
11
1.4
4

5. 2014 Y
Year E d F
End Forecasts
t
US 10 Year T-Note
T Note
US Unemployment
Current
2.7%
2 7%
7.3%
Euro – US Dollar
1.34
US Dollar – Japanese Yen 98
British Pound – US Dollar 1.61
US Dollar – Swiss Franc
0.92
0 92
Source: BAML RIC Report
YE2014
4.0%
4 0%
7.0%
1.25
108
1.56
1.04
5

6. China
Slower Growth
Market – Oriented Reforms
6

7. US E
Energy B
Boom
7

8. King Dollar
Abe’s Weak Yen Policy
+ Wh t
Whatever-It-Takes Policy E
It T k P li Europe
+ EM Slower Growth Era
+ US Energy Boom
+ 2014 Fed Tapering
Stronger US Dollar
8

9. US Macro Themes
Energy Boom
Fed Tapering
p
g
Improving Employment
Housing Recovery
g
y
Consumer Deleveraging Almost Complete
State / Local Government Spending
Low Inflation
Mid-Term Elections
Improving Budget Deficit
I
i B d t D fi it
Corporate Financial Actions
9

10. US E
Energy B
Boom
10

11. US Natural Gas Production
11

12. 12

13. Employment Improvement
13

14. Housing R
H
i
Recovery
14

15. Deleveraging Over?
Household debt as a % of total assets
15
Source: US Federal Reserve

16. Household debt service costs
H
h ld d bt
i
t
16
Source: US Federal Reserve

17. US Household Net Worth
17
Source: US Federal Reserve

18. US Household balance sheet
Assets
$83.7 trillion
Liabilities
$13.4 trillion
Real Estate
Financial
Durable goods
g
Other
$20.7 trillion
$57.7 trillion
$4.9 trillion
$.04 trillion
Mortgage debt
Consumer credit
Other
$9.4 trillion
$2.8 trillion
$1.2 trillion
Net worth $70.3 trillion
18
Source: US Federal Reserve Q1-2013

19. Municipal Revenue
19
Source: Lord Abbett

20. Low Inflation
20

21. Health Care Costs
21

22. China’s Impact on US Inflation
China’s Slower Growth =
Lower Commodity Prices =
Lower US Inflation =
Stronger US Purchasing Power =
Stronger US Economy =
g
y
22

23. 23

24. US B d t D fi it
Budget Deficit
24

25. Corporate Financial Actions
High Cash Level
+ Low Growth
+ Shareholder Activism
M&A
Buybacks
y
Dividend Increases
25

26. Redefining Ri k
R d fi i
Risk
CDS 5-Year Spreads
Exxon
10
Merck
10
Disney
13
Johnson & Johnson
17
Google
22
Wal-Mart
22
Germany
UK
US
Switzerland
Japan
France
Spain
S i
Italy
Greece
23
28
31
34
54
58
182
205
736
26
Source: Bloomberg

27. Great Rotation
nd
2
Inning
Mutual Fund Flows June – Sept 2013 ($B)
p
($ )
Equity
Domestic International Bond
(1.6)
36.9
(117.3)
Money Market
y
75.0
27

28. Our View
US Dollar
US Stocks
Gold
Commodities
Bonds
Emerging Markets Equities
28

29. How Are Family Offices
Allocated?
Equities
Fixed Income
Less Liquid / Alternatives
Cash
C h
25%
17%
19%
39%
100%
Average Expected Return
More likely
8%
4.4%
29
Source: Citi Private Bank

30. The Dollar Rises
30

31. “If we are in a bubble, it’s the weirdest
bubble I have ever seen, where
everybody hates everything.
everything.”
- Mark Andreesen
31

32. Asset Allocation
Inflection Point
32

33. Thank You
Mike PeQueen, CFA CFP
Mik P Q
CFA,
Managing Director, Partner
2360 Corporate Circle, Suite 160
Henderson, NV 89074
(702)567-5100
www.hightowerlasvegas.com
MPeQueen@HighTowerAdvisors.com