Rafia Hasan, Chief Investment Officer at Wipfli Financial Advisors, discusses inflation and its impact on investors. She notes that inflation is currently the highest it's been in four decades but expects it to remain in the low single digits long-term. While stocks have historically performed well during inflation, fixed income poses challenges with negative real yields. Hasan advises understanding investment risks and purposes to make sound portfolio decisions during this uncertain period.

1. Protecting Your Portfolio Against
Inflationary Pressures
Interview with: Rafia Hasan, Princi-
pal, Chief Investment Officer, Wipfli
Financial Advisors
“Inflation is the highest we have seen in
four decades and that is certainly
concerning for investors. Longer-term,
our expectation is that inflation will be
higher than it was pre-pandemic, but
still in the low single digits,” says Rafia
Hasan, Principal, Chief Investment
Officer, Wipfli Financial Advisors.
Although we do not know how long this
elevated level of inflation will last,
Hasan says that “there are many
solutions being marketed today as a
panacea for inflation, and understanding
the risks and assumptions underlying
those solutions is critical to making
sound portfolio allocation decisions”.
Hasan will be taking part in a panel
discussion at the marcus evans
Private Wealth Management Sum-
mit 2022.
What are your predictions for 2022?
Are we experiencing “transitory”
inflation?
After the January inflation report, which
showed a 7.5% CPI, it is hard to make
the case that current inflation is transi-
tory. We even saw the Federal Reserve
abandon the word transitory last
November.
On the demand side of things, it is
plausible that some of the pent-up
demand, particularly for more durable
goods, has either been met or will be
tempered with the Federal Reserve
raising rates. The bigger unknown is on
the supply side. How long will it take for
supply chain issues to work themselves
out? What is the possibility of a wage-
price spiral in the meantime? Longer-
term, our expectation is that inflation
will be higher than it was pre-pandemic,
but still in the low single digits.
How will this impact global mar-
kets? Does higher inflation signal
doom for stocks? What does this
mean for investors?
Inflation is the highest we have seen in
four decades and that is certainly
concerning for investors. The good news
is that when we look at past periods of
inflation, stocks have tended to hold up
well through both high and low inflation-
ary environments. Why is that the case?
Even as prices for commodities and
other inputs rise, companies continue to
add value in the goods and services that
they sell.
Additionally, while some companies’
profitability may be impacted by rising
input prices, others may be able to pass
along price increases to consumers and
continue to generate strong returns for
investors. We saw this happen in 2021.
Despite rising inflation and increasing
mentions of inflation during earnings
calls, the S&P 500 is on track to post a
nearly 13% profit margin for the year,
according to FactSet Insight.
What are some uncertainties that
are bothering investors? What is
the way around them?
From an investor’s standpoint, the
toughest nut to crack is what to do with
fixed income. At the current level of
inflation, we have negative real yields in
most segments of the bond market. But
no one knows how long this elevated
level of inflation will last or how quickly
bond yields at different points on the
yield curve might adjust. To me it
comes down to understanding your risk
tolerance and being clear about the
purpose of bonds in your portfolio. For
our clients, I view bonds as providing a
buffer in periods of equity market
stress. Some clients need more of that
buffer, while others have a higher risk
tolerance and may consider reducing
that buffer given the current trade-offs.
What mindset or discipline should
they maintain in this uncertain
environment?
Investors need to be especially careful
right now about making drastic changes
to portfolios based on consensus views
about the future. When “everyone”
knows that rates are going up or some
other prediction about the future – I
always ask myself how much of this is
already priced in or what alternative
future could play out that could turn
these expectations on their head. There
are many solutions being marketed
today as a panacea for inflation.
Understanding the risks and assump-
tions underlying those solutions is
critical to making sound portfolio
allocation decisions.
I view bonds
as providing
a buffer
in periods
of equity
market
stress

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