Immigration + US Election Webinar Slideshiddenlevers
This document discusses immigration and the US election. It provides snapshots of current US immigration trends, the candidates' positions on immigration, and scenarios for how different immigration policies could impact GDP growth and the stock market. Skills-based immigration reforms could boost GDP by 0.5% annually and send markets to new highs. The status quo would mean continued slow growth. Restrictive policies under a "Trump Wall" scenario could drag down GDP and cause a market correction. Gridlock is expected to continue or worsen after the election.
The document discusses current market valuations and potential future scenarios. It notes that zero interest rate policies are lifting housing prices but valuation metrics are not excessive yet. While stock prices have risen, earnings growth has caused the P/E ratio to decline slightly from its peak. Three scenarios for future stock performance are presented: 1) Continued earnings growth lifts valuations and returns substantially. 2) Earnings growth keeps valuations flat, enabling solid returns. 3) A mild recession causes a 20% drop in valuations. The document concludes that starting at high valuations typically leads to subpar future returns.
Housing starts are still well below historical averages despite a recent rebound, and low interest rates and strong demand have supported rising home prices. However, the recovery could be interrupted if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, slowing growth. A worst case scenario would be a recession in China dragging down the global economy and causing a double-dip housing downturn in the United States, with falling home prices and rising unemployment. Overall the recovery appears to still have momentum but is vulnerable to external shocks or changes in monetary policy.
Trump Agenda Webinar Slides - Dec 2016hiddenlevers
- The document discusses potential scenarios for President Trump's agenda, including tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and immigration policy changes.
- In the best case, tax reform and increased fiscal spending could boost GDP and stock market gains. However, failure to enact major policies or distractions could cause the market to give up post-election gains.
- Strict limits on immigration could significantly curb GDP growth by reducing population growth, putting the economy at risk of stagnation like Japan. Mass deportations could even trigger a recession.
This document discusses potential scenarios in the ongoing "currency wars" and their effects on currencies and markets. It analyzes factors like the Fed's interest rate decisions, Brexit, and a potential Chinese yuan devaluation crisis.
The good scenario has the Fed continuing its dovish policy, boosting equities. The bad scenario involves Brexit negatively impacting European currencies and regional stocks. The ugly scenario is a Chinese yuan devaluation triggering a new Asian currency crisis with global spillovers, causing stocks and commodities to plunge while the USD surges.
This document provides market updates and scenarios related to the decline in crude oil prices. It discusses three phases of the oil crash, compares the current decline to past crashes, and analyzes the impact on the energy sector, US and global economies. Key risks discussed are an energy sector bankruptcy wave, a tech sector reality check leading to further declines, and the potential for a Chinese recession causing broader impact. The document concludes that Russia faces the most default risk from cheap oil, while a Chinese recession would have greater downside impact on the US than cheap oil alone.
The document discusses the state of the US jobs market and the Federal Reserve's stress test scenarios for 2015. It provides the following key points:
1) The Federal Reserve's baseline scenario for the stress tests projects steady growth in equities, fast real estate appreciation, and moderate inflation and GDP growth.
2) The adverse scenario models a "stagflation" environment with high inflation and poor growth.
3) The severely adverse scenario includes a 50% decline in equities, a deep recession, and interest rates remaining very low.
Immigration + US Election Webinar Slideshiddenlevers
This document discusses immigration and the US election. It provides snapshots of current US immigration trends, the candidates' positions on immigration, and scenarios for how different immigration policies could impact GDP growth and the stock market. Skills-based immigration reforms could boost GDP by 0.5% annually and send markets to new highs. The status quo would mean continued slow growth. Restrictive policies under a "Trump Wall" scenario could drag down GDP and cause a market correction. Gridlock is expected to continue or worsen after the election.
The document discusses current market valuations and potential future scenarios. It notes that zero interest rate policies are lifting housing prices but valuation metrics are not excessive yet. While stock prices have risen, earnings growth has caused the P/E ratio to decline slightly from its peak. Three scenarios for future stock performance are presented: 1) Continued earnings growth lifts valuations and returns substantially. 2) Earnings growth keeps valuations flat, enabling solid returns. 3) A mild recession causes a 20% drop in valuations. The document concludes that starting at high valuations typically leads to subpar future returns.
Housing starts are still well below historical averages despite a recent rebound, and low interest rates and strong demand have supported rising home prices. However, the recovery could be interrupted if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, slowing growth. A worst case scenario would be a recession in China dragging down the global economy and causing a double-dip housing downturn in the United States, with falling home prices and rising unemployment. Overall the recovery appears to still have momentum but is vulnerable to external shocks or changes in monetary policy.
Trump Agenda Webinar Slides - Dec 2016hiddenlevers
- The document discusses potential scenarios for President Trump's agenda, including tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and immigration policy changes.
- In the best case, tax reform and increased fiscal spending could boost GDP and stock market gains. However, failure to enact major policies or distractions could cause the market to give up post-election gains.
- Strict limits on immigration could significantly curb GDP growth by reducing population growth, putting the economy at risk of stagnation like Japan. Mass deportations could even trigger a recession.
This document discusses potential scenarios in the ongoing "currency wars" and their effects on currencies and markets. It analyzes factors like the Fed's interest rate decisions, Brexit, and a potential Chinese yuan devaluation crisis.
The good scenario has the Fed continuing its dovish policy, boosting equities. The bad scenario involves Brexit negatively impacting European currencies and regional stocks. The ugly scenario is a Chinese yuan devaluation triggering a new Asian currency crisis with global spillovers, causing stocks and commodities to plunge while the USD surges.
This document provides market updates and scenarios related to the decline in crude oil prices. It discusses three phases of the oil crash, compares the current decline to past crashes, and analyzes the impact on the energy sector, US and global economies. Key risks discussed are an energy sector bankruptcy wave, a tech sector reality check leading to further declines, and the potential for a Chinese recession causing broader impact. The document concludes that Russia faces the most default risk from cheap oil, while a Chinese recession would have greater downside impact on the US than cheap oil alone.
The document discusses the state of the US jobs market and the Federal Reserve's stress test scenarios for 2015. It provides the following key points:
1) The Federal Reserve's baseline scenario for the stress tests projects steady growth in equities, fast real estate appreciation, and moderate inflation and GDP growth.
2) The adverse scenario models a "stagflation" environment with high inflation and poor growth.
3) The severely adverse scenario includes a 50% decline in equities, a deep recession, and interest rates remaining very low.
Fixed Income, Broken Dreams War Room Slideshiddenlevers
This document discusses recent market volatility and the potential impact of rising interest rates:
1) It reviews factors contributing to recent market volatility like tensions in the Middle East and political debates around the debt ceiling and healthcare reform.
2) It provides an overview of the macroeconomic environment and signals from the Federal Reserve that tapering of quantitative easing may begin soon if growth continues.
3) It examines how a rising rate environment could stress fixed income markets and hurt some bond assets more than others, drawing comparisons to the bond market disruptions of 1994.
4) It identifies potential winners and losers among different asset classes as rates rise.
The document discusses Trump's proposed tax plan and its potential impacts. It provides context on historical tax changes and reform efforts. Trump's plan would significantly cut corporate and individual tax rates while eliminating many deductions. This could benefit corporate profits but worsen inequality and add trillions to the deficit. The plan faces challenges in Congress. Its success is key to Trump's broader economic agenda, and markets are pricing in expectations of tax cuts driving stocks higher.
The Stock Market Will Reconnect with the Economy. Then what?Ron Surz
• There are two reasons that the stock market is disconnected from the economy. Both have a high price tag.
• Ideally the economy will snap back, and the connection will be re-established that way, but it will still need to absorb an exorbitant amount of new money.
• The other way to reconnect is a market crash. Are you prepared?
• After the reconnect, be prepared for tax increases and inflation.
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes jumped dramatically in May. They were up 53.5% from April and 48.3% year-over-year. The 304 home sales were the most for any month since 305 homes were sold in November 2004. Year-to-date, home sales are down 8.9% while condo sales are down 6.9%.
For all the Fed’s unprecedented efforts, markets are back on solid footing for now. We could point to central bank moves as successful or come to grips with reality – the Fed has been nationalized. Its cash cannon now belongs to the US Treasury and is preventing economic darwinsim by aiming at bad corporate actors, instead of targeting the most affected people.
– Is Fed + fiscal action succeeding against the coronavirus recession?
– Can the Fed underwrite the whole US economy without massive inflation?
– Is inequality making our recessions worse than necessary?
Join us as we offer a pulse check on coronavirus and introduce a new scenario on the flurry of Fed action, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
For a limited time, HiddenLevers is offering a FREE 30-day trial– find out what makes our brand of economic analysis so valuable right now for your digital client experience
This document discusses income and wealth inequality in the United States based on Thomas Piketty's book. It finds that income inequality has increased significantly, with the top 1% earning over 20% of all income. Wealth is also more unequally distributed than income, with the super rich gaining the most. While several factors contribute to inequality, such as technology and globalization, the US has greater inequality than European countries and does less to redistribute income through government programs and taxes. There are no simple solutions, but proposals include increasing education funding, making tax policies more progressive, enhancing social programs, and boosting government investment spending.
Lack of Inventory Plagues Market - Real Estate Report August/SeptemberAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report August/September, local market trends San Francisco: "Lack of Inventory Plagues Market" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
Mike PeQueen from HighTower Advisors and a Speaker at the marcus evans Private Wealth Management Summit held in Las Vegas, NV Dec 8-10, delivered his presentation entitled "What to Expect in the Year Ahead: The Global Market Outlook for 2014".
Join the 2014 Private Wealth Management Summit along with leading regional investors in an intimate environment for a highly focused discussion on the latest investment strategies in the market.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016Annie Williams
It looks like the market is moderating after the frenzy of last year. The sales price to list price ratio for homes, which is a good indicator of demand, while still over 100%, has gone from being over 110% for most of last year to under 110% for most of this year.
Vaccine Rebound - HiddenLevers War Roomhiddenlevers
This document discusses potential macroeconomic scenarios related to vaccine rollout and economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines four potential "Vaccine Rebound" scenarios - Best Case, Good, Baseline, and Ugly. Each scenario is accompanied by projections for S&P 500 performance and economic indicators. Additional scenarios discuss potential for US reflation and black swan events. Overall, the document analyzes economic risks and opportunities posed by vaccine distribution and the post-pandemic recovery.
China reckoning 30 sept 2021 - war-room slideshiddenlevers
The negative vibes out of China keep getting worse. It wasn't just about Jack Ma, or Alibaba. It wasn’t just about state control of DiDi, or Evergrande, or any other specific target. Suddenly hostile to its own best companies and with debt defaults looming, the Chinese leadership is taking a hammer to the 30-year long investment narrative.
- Is China becoming uninvestable?
- What exposure do US investors face?
- Is talk of systemic risk overdone?
Join us as we revamp our China scenario, and discuss why crypto has been a miserable Yuan hedge, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
1. The stock market indices continued their upward trends last week, with the S&P 500 gaining slightly and the Dow Jones gaining for an 11-day streak. However, volume was lower, suggesting bullish sentiment may be waning.
2. The US dollar fell against other currencies as uncertainty over Trump's policies persisted. The euro rose but faces resistance and the primary trend remains down, so it may retest lower levels. Sterling fell on concerns over a second Scottish independence referendum.
3. Oil has been trading in a tight range but hedge funds have increased bets on higher prices, while US producers hedge against declines. Gold completed a pattern suggesting a rise to $1,300 but needs to contend with resistance
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
The document provides a weekly summary of international forex markets from July 3-13, 2018. It discusses the US dollar inching down against other currencies as US-China trade tensions continued. It also mentions the euro strengthening to near three-week highs on strong German industry data and the British pound refreshing session highs on a weaker than expected US jobs report. Charts and recommendations are provided for intraday trading of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs.
Give your Vote on these Top U.S Economic Issues | USD ProjectAccounts-USD
The document appears to be from an organization called the USD Project that is seeking opinions and decisions from economics experts on important economic issues facing the United States, including the national debt and potential non-fiat currency alternatives. Experts are instructed to create a profile page, read decision instructions, copy decision questions to their answers, and provide votes or tweets to engage with the organization.
Jeremy Grantham's quarterly letter analyzes the outsized growth of the banking industry in Western economies. Grantham argues that the 3% of GDP devoted to financial services in 1965 was sufficient, while the increase to 7.5% of GDP by 2007 provided little real value and instead taxed the rest of the economy. This extra spending on banking slowed the growth rate of the non-financial sector from 3.5% annually before 1965 to 2.4% between 1980 and 2007. Grantham believes the benefits of banking industry growth have accrued mostly to those receiving outsized bonuses, rather than the broader economy.
Annie Williams Market Trends Aug-Sept 2014Jon Weaver
- Home and condo sales were down in San Francisco in July compared to the previous year. The median home price rose 20.6% to $1,073,500 while the median condo price grew 9.8% to $944,500.
- The local real estate market continues to struggle with low inventory. There are only around 240 homes currently on the market, which is less than one month of sales. The lack of inventory is hindering market activity.
- Mortgage rates rose slightly in August after comments from the Federal Reserve signaled the central bank may start raising rates sooner than previously expected. However, rates remain low historically and global economic uncertainties are keeping further increases at bay for now.
Top Issues to discuss on US Economy | USD ProjectAccounts-USD
The document discusses an organization called the USD Project that is seeking opinions and decisions from economics experts on important economic issues facing the United States, including the national debt and potential currency alternatives, through the year 2099. Experts are encouraged to create a profile page on the organization's wiki site and vote on various decisions and issues by posting their answers on Twitter or via email to the USD Project.
Don Meredith • Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp.
- The Millennial obsession by David Wismer
- Global decline in oil prices leads to “Fracklog”
- VIX ETFs not right for investors by Tom McClellan
- A generational shift in target marketing (Bryce Winkel, Transamerica Financial Advisors Inc.)
3 Generations: Aspirations and Hard Choices in the New Economysachsinsights
As the effects of the 2008 financial crisis became more tangible, Sachs Insights initiated a project to understand the lives, trends and habits of Millennials, Gen X-ers and Baby Boomers. Click the gallery below to understand the varying perspectives of each generation and how they approach the changing economic climate.
Fixed Income, Broken Dreams War Room Slideshiddenlevers
This document discusses recent market volatility and the potential impact of rising interest rates:
1) It reviews factors contributing to recent market volatility like tensions in the Middle East and political debates around the debt ceiling and healthcare reform.
2) It provides an overview of the macroeconomic environment and signals from the Federal Reserve that tapering of quantitative easing may begin soon if growth continues.
3) It examines how a rising rate environment could stress fixed income markets and hurt some bond assets more than others, drawing comparisons to the bond market disruptions of 1994.
4) It identifies potential winners and losers among different asset classes as rates rise.
The document discusses Trump's proposed tax plan and its potential impacts. It provides context on historical tax changes and reform efforts. Trump's plan would significantly cut corporate and individual tax rates while eliminating many deductions. This could benefit corporate profits but worsen inequality and add trillions to the deficit. The plan faces challenges in Congress. Its success is key to Trump's broader economic agenda, and markets are pricing in expectations of tax cuts driving stocks higher.
The Stock Market Will Reconnect with the Economy. Then what?Ron Surz
• There are two reasons that the stock market is disconnected from the economy. Both have a high price tag.
• Ideally the economy will snap back, and the connection will be re-established that way, but it will still need to absorb an exorbitant amount of new money.
• The other way to reconnect is a market crash. Are you prepared?
• After the reconnect, be prepared for tax increases and inflation.
Annie Williams Market Trends June-July 2016Jon Weaver
Sales of single-family, re-sale homes jumped dramatically in May. They were up 53.5% from April and 48.3% year-over-year. The 304 home sales were the most for any month since 305 homes were sold in November 2004. Year-to-date, home sales are down 8.9% while condo sales are down 6.9%.
For all the Fed’s unprecedented efforts, markets are back on solid footing for now. We could point to central bank moves as successful or come to grips with reality – the Fed has been nationalized. Its cash cannon now belongs to the US Treasury and is preventing economic darwinsim by aiming at bad corporate actors, instead of targeting the most affected people.
– Is Fed + fiscal action succeeding against the coronavirus recession?
– Can the Fed underwrite the whole US economy without massive inflation?
– Is inequality making our recessions worse than necessary?
Join us as we offer a pulse check on coronavirus and introduce a new scenario on the flurry of Fed action, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
For a limited time, HiddenLevers is offering a FREE 30-day trial– find out what makes our brand of economic analysis so valuable right now for your digital client experience
This document discusses income and wealth inequality in the United States based on Thomas Piketty's book. It finds that income inequality has increased significantly, with the top 1% earning over 20% of all income. Wealth is also more unequally distributed than income, with the super rich gaining the most. While several factors contribute to inequality, such as technology and globalization, the US has greater inequality than European countries and does less to redistribute income through government programs and taxes. There are no simple solutions, but proposals include increasing education funding, making tax policies more progressive, enhancing social programs, and boosting government investment spending.
Lack of Inventory Plagues Market - Real Estate Report August/SeptemberAMSI, San Francisco
The Real Estate Report August/September, local market trends San Francisco: "Lack of Inventory Plagues Market" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
Mike PeQueen from HighTower Advisors and a Speaker at the marcus evans Private Wealth Management Summit held in Las Vegas, NV Dec 8-10, delivered his presentation entitled "What to Expect in the Year Ahead: The Global Market Outlook for 2014".
Join the 2014 Private Wealth Management Summit along with leading regional investors in an intimate environment for a highly focused discussion on the latest investment strategies in the market.
For more information contact: emailus@marcusevans.com
Annie Williams Real Estate Report Sept-Oct 2016Annie Williams
It looks like the market is moderating after the frenzy of last year. The sales price to list price ratio for homes, which is a good indicator of demand, while still over 100%, has gone from being over 110% for most of last year to under 110% for most of this year.
Vaccine Rebound - HiddenLevers War Roomhiddenlevers
This document discusses potential macroeconomic scenarios related to vaccine rollout and economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. It outlines four potential "Vaccine Rebound" scenarios - Best Case, Good, Baseline, and Ugly. Each scenario is accompanied by projections for S&P 500 performance and economic indicators. Additional scenarios discuss potential for US reflation and black swan events. Overall, the document analyzes economic risks and opportunities posed by vaccine distribution and the post-pandemic recovery.
China reckoning 30 sept 2021 - war-room slideshiddenlevers
The negative vibes out of China keep getting worse. It wasn't just about Jack Ma, or Alibaba. It wasn’t just about state control of DiDi, or Evergrande, or any other specific target. Suddenly hostile to its own best companies and with debt defaults looming, the Chinese leadership is taking a hammer to the 30-year long investment narrative.
- Is China becoming uninvestable?
- What exposure do US investors face?
- Is talk of systemic risk overdone?
Join us as we revamp our China scenario, and discuss why crypto has been a miserable Yuan hedge, in the next HiddenLevers War Room.
1. The stock market indices continued their upward trends last week, with the S&P 500 gaining slightly and the Dow Jones gaining for an 11-day streak. However, volume was lower, suggesting bullish sentiment may be waning.
2. The US dollar fell against other currencies as uncertainty over Trump's policies persisted. The euro rose but faces resistance and the primary trend remains down, so it may retest lower levels. Sterling fell on concerns over a second Scottish independence referendum.
3. Oil has been trading in a tight range but hedge funds have increased bets on higher prices, while US producers hedge against declines. Gold completed a pattern suggesting a rise to $1,300 but needs to contend with resistance
The document provides a mid-year update on the global economic environment and investment outlook. It notes that the world is undergoing significant changes and paradigm shifts, as evidenced by unprecedented events like negative yielding global debt and Brexit. Central banks have pushed monetary policy to its limits, and are now using currency devaluation over interest rates to influence growth. This unstable macroeconomic environment makes forecasts difficult. The document recommends favoring large cap domestic stocks over small/mid caps or fixed income, and suggests the housing market may strengthen as interest rates remain low.
The document provides a weekly summary of international forex markets from July 3-13, 2018. It discusses the US dollar inching down against other currencies as US-China trade tensions continued. It also mentions the euro strengthening to near three-week highs on strong German industry data and the British pound refreshing session highs on a weaker than expected US jobs report. Charts and recommendations are provided for intraday trading of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD currency pairs.
Give your Vote on these Top U.S Economic Issues | USD ProjectAccounts-USD
The document appears to be from an organization called the USD Project that is seeking opinions and decisions from economics experts on important economic issues facing the United States, including the national debt and potential non-fiat currency alternatives. Experts are instructed to create a profile page, read decision instructions, copy decision questions to their answers, and provide votes or tweets to engage with the organization.
Jeremy Grantham's quarterly letter analyzes the outsized growth of the banking industry in Western economies. Grantham argues that the 3% of GDP devoted to financial services in 1965 was sufficient, while the increase to 7.5% of GDP by 2007 provided little real value and instead taxed the rest of the economy. This extra spending on banking slowed the growth rate of the non-financial sector from 3.5% annually before 1965 to 2.4% between 1980 and 2007. Grantham believes the benefits of banking industry growth have accrued mostly to those receiving outsized bonuses, rather than the broader economy.
Annie Williams Market Trends Aug-Sept 2014Jon Weaver
- Home and condo sales were down in San Francisco in July compared to the previous year. The median home price rose 20.6% to $1,073,500 while the median condo price grew 9.8% to $944,500.
- The local real estate market continues to struggle with low inventory. There are only around 240 homes currently on the market, which is less than one month of sales. The lack of inventory is hindering market activity.
- Mortgage rates rose slightly in August after comments from the Federal Reserve signaled the central bank may start raising rates sooner than previously expected. However, rates remain low historically and global economic uncertainties are keeping further increases at bay for now.
Top Issues to discuss on US Economy | USD ProjectAccounts-USD
The document discusses an organization called the USD Project that is seeking opinions and decisions from economics experts on important economic issues facing the United States, including the national debt and potential currency alternatives, through the year 2099. Experts are encouraged to create a profile page on the organization's wiki site and vote on various decisions and issues by posting their answers on Twitter or via email to the USD Project.
Don Meredith • Lincoln Financial Advisors Corp.
- The Millennial obsession by David Wismer
- Global decline in oil prices leads to “Fracklog”
- VIX ETFs not right for investors by Tom McClellan
- A generational shift in target marketing (Bryce Winkel, Transamerica Financial Advisors Inc.)
3 Generations: Aspirations and Hard Choices in the New Economysachsinsights
As the effects of the 2008 financial crisis became more tangible, Sachs Insights initiated a project to understand the lives, trends and habits of Millennials, Gen X-ers and Baby Boomers. Click the gallery below to understand the varying perspectives of each generation and how they approach the changing economic climate.
Fundstrat Bitcoin & Blockchain presentation for Upfront SummitMark Suster
An equity analyst case for the value in cryptocurrencies. Thomas Lee of Fundstrat was lead equity researcher for JP Morgan before founding Fundstrat. He takes a market approach to valuing Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Here is his presentation for the #UpfrontSummit 2018.
This document discusses the decline of emerging markets, particularly the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). It analyzes recent economic trends in emerging markets and the BRICS, and presents a scenario where emerging markets lose economic footing. Emerging market currencies and stock markets have been crushed in recent years. The end of the BRICS era is declared as these countries face economic struggles from falling commodity prices and a strong US dollar. A scenario is outlined where US rate hikes cripple emerging markets further through capital outflows, leading to bankruptcies and a potential global economic slowdown.
This is the March 2009 edition of the Luckie-produced Generational News & Views newsletter. It takes a quick topical look into the lives of Baby Boomers, Gen Xers and Gen Y.
This document summarizes a conference on the US real estate market. It discusses macroeconomic conditions and trends in the US economy, capital markets, the real estate market, and the future outlook. Several speakers presented on topics like GDP growth, unemployment, housing sales, debt levels, and the job market. The document also analyzes investment trends in apartment markets and the multifamily sector. It notes improving conditions for higher-quality assets but continued challenges for smaller, lower-quality properties. Overall, the future outlook is positive but short-term growth remains uncertain due to issues like high debt, conservative business spending, and political uncertainty.
Alon Solomon on ANNUAL DS CONFERENCE- US REAL ESTATEAlon Solomon
This document summarizes a conference on the US real estate market. It discusses macroeconomic conditions and trends in the US economy, capital markets, the real estate market, and the future outlook. Several speakers presented on topics like GDP growth, unemployment, housing sales, debt levels, and the job market. The document also analyzes investment trends in apartment markets and notes areas of strong and weak performance. It identifies population growth, new supply declines, and affordability as long-term drivers of the apartment sector. Short-term growth faces uncertainty from corporate cash hoarding, regulatory concerns, and economic psychology dampening job creation.
This document summarizes the findings of a 2014 study on civility in America conducted by Weber Shandwick and PowellTate. Some key findings:
- Americans believe civility is eroding and the problem is getting worse, though Millennials are slightly more optimistic about future improvement.
- Millennials experience uncivil behavior more frequently than older generations, especially online. They are also more likely to take proactive steps in response.
- While all generations see civility issues, there is a divide on causes - Millennials and Gen Xers blame social media most, while older groups blame politicians.
- Millennials acknowledge high levels of uncivil behavior online but many also avoid or
Dealing with Dangers in the Economy and Stock Market Ron Surz
Please join us for this very important show. Investors, especially baby boomers, need to protect themselves. “Trust the Fed” is not good advice, nor is “stay the course.” Replays anytime after 2/22
Watch on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/100144354887536/posts/495743881994246/
Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMhZInL5ttU
Watch on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/video/event/urn:li:ugcPost:6899746952225861632/
This document discusses intergenerational relationships and challenges in Rotary. It defines different generations based on defining historical events and provides characteristics of each. Veterans/Traditionalists were born 1900-1945 and lived through the Great Depression and WWII. Baby Boomers were born 1946-1964 and lived through social movements of the 1960s. Generation X was born 1965-1980 and came of age during times of rising divorce and crime rates. Millennials were born 1981-1999 and the first to come of age in the new millennium and with new technology. The youngest generation, called Centennials or Gen Z, were born 1997-present and have never known life without the internet. The document notes challenges in communication and motivation across generations
- The growing senior population will increase demands for affordable and accessible housing as more seniors face challenges with independent living.
- The number of seniors is projected to grow by 30 million by 2030, increasing the share of the population over 65 from 13% to 20%.
- Seniors want to age in place but many homes lack accessibility features, creating challenges for independent living, especially for low-income renters and those with disabilities.
Cool Uniforms and Flying Cars: The Evolving Workforce and the Challenge to ...Bill Wooten
1. The document discusses how the evolving workforce, known as knowledge workers, and changing expectations and technologies are challenging US businesses.
2. Key trends include a shrinking pool of skilled labor, changing family structures and gender roles, and different expectations around work-life balance from younger generations.
3. Technologies are transforming where and how work gets done, with many knowledge workers expecting flexibility in working remotely and setting their own schedules.
This document provides an overview of Millennials and strategies for capturing their attention. It defines Millennials as those born between 1981-2000, totaling over 92 million in the US. Millennials are highly connected through social media and prefer urban environments. The document outlines Millennials' unique traits like being special, sheltered, team-oriented, and achieving. It recommends meeting Millennials on social media as they get most of their news from television and the internet. The document proposes aligning company messaging and initiatives with what resonates with Millennials and implementing an strategic social media plan to reach this important demographic.
The document discusses several topics related to US immigration:
1) Current US immigration levels with over 1 million new immigrants per year accounting for 60% of labor force growth.
2) The impact of immigration on economic growth, with population growth driving 40% of GDP growth.
3) Details of President Obama's recent executive order providing legal status to millions of undocumented immigrants already in the US.
4) Issues around future congressional action on broader immigration reform, comparing the US system to models in other countries like Canada and Australia.
5) Arguments that reform and continued immigration can help avoid deflation and maintain economic growth.
The document discusses challenges related to housing and social justice, particularly in the context of the foreclosure crisis. It notes that housing is important for access to opportunity and wealth accumulation. However, policies and practices like redlining, discriminatory lending, and racial steering have historically disadvantaged communities of color by limiting housing choice and access. The foreclosure crisis exacerbated existing inequities, stripping wealth and destabilizing neighborhoods. The document calls for responses that address both immediate needs and systemic reform to reshape neighborhoods and housing policies in an equitable manner.
The Changing Consumer Landscape What We Look Like Nowjackgriffinesa
The document discusses changes in the US consumer landscape. Millennials and Baby Boomers make up the largest population segments currently. Millennials in particular will greatly impact culture as their population size increases. The US is also becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, with minorities projected to outnumber whites by 2042. Socioeconomic factors like unemployment, declining household wealth, and delayed retirement are redefining American values and lifestyles. Marketers need strategies that recognize consumers have become more frugal in their purchasing behaviors in the current economic environment.
Lorin Drake of Schwartz Consulting presents "(Re) Introducing Florida Boomers: A Fresh and Surprising Look at the Consumers We Thought We Knew," results of a statewide study on Florida baby boomers.
There are more than 5,000 publicly traded companies on the NYSE and the NASDAQ and more being added with each IPO. Everyone of these companies is required to report to the SEC and to tell its story to the investing public. Skilled financial communicators are in high demand. The key question? How does a company make money?
The document provides instructions for students seeking writing assistance from HelpWriting.net. It outlines a 5-step process: 1) Create an account with valid email and password. 2) Complete a 10-minute order form providing instructions, sources, deadline and sample work. 3) Review bids from writers and choose one based on qualifications. 4) Review the completed paper and authorize payment if satisfied. 5) Request revisions to ensure satisfaction, with the option of a full refund for plagiarized work. The service aims to provide original, high-quality content through this process.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
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STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
7. Aging + Markets: Schools of Thought
• Key Proponents: SF Fed
Researchers, Research
Affiliates, Harry Dent
• Claim a relationship
between aging and
market P/E
• Claim other countries
show negative returns
corresponding to age
• Key Proponents: MIT
Prof. James Poterba,
Vanguard research team
• Claim weak relationship
between aging and
equity performance
• Boomers won’t really
sell a high percentage of
stocks
Optimists Pessimists
sources: Vanguard, NBER, SF Fed, Research Affiliates
8. Aging + Markets: Optimistic View
sources: Vanguard, NBER
The relationship between increases in % of retirees and stock
returns is weak at best
NBER study found no relationship between stock prices and
aging, and a mild relationship between P/E and aging
Terrible R2
9. Aging + Markets: Pessimistic View
Research Affiliates
Data from 60 countries,
model market return by age
group
Found strong negative
impact for 65+ age group
SF Fed
Modeled P/E vs ratio of
middle age to old in USA
Found that P/E tracks with
larger middle aged group
Model indicates market P/E
may fall until 2025
sources: SF Fed, Research Affiliates
12. Reality: Baby Boomers + US Equities
• Boomers at age 40
Begin equity investing
• Market up 614%
• Boomers at age 60
• Reduce Equities
• Market up 61%
sources: Vanguard, Google Finance
S+P Logarithmic Return
Will returns get worse as Boomers age?
1985-2000 2005-now
13. Reality: Gen X + Millennials Investing?
Activity Boomers Millennials
Marriage Age 23 30
Household Formation(18-31) 56% 23%
% with college degree 25% 38%
Investment Vehicle 401(k) Robo
Millennials
Delaying life
Burdened
with debt
Don’t trust
stock market
Equities held by
Boomers age 46-64
Young Boomers did
not own equities
sources: AmericanProgress, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, Bloomberg
14. Reality: Mitigating Factors (Demographic)
sources: HiddenLevers, SF Fed, Forbes, Zacks
Boomer
retirements
coming slowly
(over 18 years)
Boomers
living longer
+
still investing
Boomers need
to invest due to
lost savings in
2008 crisis
15. Reality: Mitigating Factors (Market)
sources: HiddenLevers, SF Fed, Forbes, Zacks
Globalization of US Stock Market
Wealth Concentration
1% of Boomers owns 1/3 of Boomer assets
10% of Boomers own 88% of Boomer equities
20% of Boomers own 96% of Boomer equities
Perpetually
Low Rates
+
Low Yields
18. GOOD: Millennials Fill Gap
source: HiddenLevers
Younger investors make up for Boomer outflows
Fixed income
fruitless for
Millennials/Gen X
Wealthy Boomers
don’t need to sell
Foreign demand
continues
EM outflows seek
shelter in US
equities
19. BAD: Gradual Decline
Boomers living longer + not retiring = no quick drain
source: HiddenLevers
lofty valuations
unsustainable
PE decline
25 20
gradual equity
sales don’t
compress PE
Millennial
entry delayed
20. UGLY: Mass Exodus
PE decline
25 15
source: HiddenLevers
Boomers liquidate equities to fund retirement
worker/retiree
ratio falls
sharply
2010 forecasted
decline now
5 years late
21. Scenario: Boomer Outflows
Good:
Millennials
Fill Gap
Bad:
Gradual
Decline
Ugly:
Mass Exodus
Market P/E
15
S&P
-40%
Market P/E
20
S&P
-10%
Market P/E
25
Millennials begin to enter
equity markets, filling the
gap left by aging boomers.
Wealthy boomers hold 90%
of equities, making excess
sales unlikely.
The gradual decline in
Boomer market participation
is offset by younger
investors, but market
valuations cannot maintain
current lofty levels.
Boomers do shift away from
equities, lowering demand
for stocks and compressing
S&P P/E to 15 by 2020s.
S&P
+35%
22. Boomer Outflows – Take Aways
Low interest rates force
everyone into equities
2008 Financial Crisis made
Millennials distrust Equity markets
10% of Boomers own lion’s share
of Boomer equities
S+P PE Ratio will compress if
Boomers start liquidating