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Microscopic technical analysis
The document outlines a comprehensive approach to microscopic technical analysis, particularly focusing on the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) and stochastic oscillator indicators for trading. It emphasizes the use of relative performance metrics to assess market dynamics and provide trading signals, including the dandy rotation concept within the context of Bollinger Bands. Additionally, it discusses the importance of trend analysis and identifying trend reversals among various market instruments and their performance relative to benchmarks.
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Microscopic technical analysis
- 1. Microscopic Technical Analysis Re-Concept TechnicalAnalysis www.theprimarytrader.com The Primary Trader
- 3. The Primary Trader MicroscopicTechnical Analysis MACD Previous Data Line 4 Signals Direction Relative Performing Dandy Rotation
- 4. Microscopic Technical Analysis :MACD Re-Concept Technical Analysis www.theprimarytrader.com The Primary Trader
- 5. The Primary Trader MicroscopicTechnical Analysis MACD Previous Data Line 4 Signals Direction Relative Performing Dandy Rotation
- 6. In Memoriam: GeraldAppel (1933 – 2020) Inventor of MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
- 7. MACD is myinspiration to create Microscopic Technical Analysis Concept
- 8. The Primary Trader AboutMACD Developed by Gerald Appel in late 70s According to Stockcharts.com : MACD turn two Trend Following Indicators, Moving Averages, into Momentum Oscillator As a result, MACD offers the best of both worlds : Trend Following and Momentum Pronounce : “Mac-Dee” or “M-A-C-D”
- 9. The Primary Trader TLKM: EMA 12-Days dan EMA 26-Days Blue : EMA 12 Red : EMA 26 Sell Signals : EMA12 Cross Down EMA26 Buy Signals : EMA12 Cross Up EMA26
- 10. The Primary Trader MACDLine : EMA 12-Days Subtract EMA 26-Days If EMA12 > EMA26 then EMA12 – EMA26 > 0 then MACD Line > 0 If EMA12 < EMA26 then EMA12 – EMA26 < 0 then MACD Line < 0 Zero Crossover (Sell) : MACD Line Cross Down Zero Line Zero Crossover (Buy) : MACD Line Cross Up Zero Line MACD Line
- 11. The Primary Trader SignalLine : 9-Days Moving Average of MACD Line MACD Line : Straight Line Signal Line : Dashed Line Signal Line Crossover (Sell) : MADC Line Cross Down Signal Line Signal Line Crossover (Buy) : MACD Line Cross Up Signal Line MACD Line Signal Line
- 12. The Primary Trader TLKMWith MACD Line & Signal Line
- 13. The Primary Trader TLKMWith MACD Line & Signal Line (Zoom In)
- 14. The Primary Trader Histogram: MACD Line Subtract Signal Line If MACD Line > Signal Line then Histogram > 0 If MACD Line < Signal Line then Histogram < 0
- 15. The Primary Trader TLKMWith Complete MACD
- 16. The Primary Trader ASII: SMA20 and SMA60
- 17. The Primary Trader Add: 5-Days Signal Line
- 18. The Primary Trader Add: Histogram In Separate Chart
- 19. Microscopic Technical Analysis: Previous Line and Direction Re-Concept Technical Analysis www.theprimarytrader.com The Primary Trader
- 20. The Primary Trader MicroscopicTechnical Analysis MACD Previous Data Line 4 Signals Direction Relative Performing Dandy Rotation
- 21. Rise and FallConcept
- 22.
- 23. The Primary Trader Risevs Fall
- 24. The Primary Trader Rise and Fall only compares Today’s Close with Today’s Open (Green vs Red in Solid Candlestick chart) JSMR in Solid (Filled) Candlestick
- 25. The Primary Trader In Hollow Candlestick, there are 4 Movements: Rally, Rise, Fall and Slump JSMR in Hollow Candlestick Rally : Today’s Close > Today’s Open AND Today’s Close > Yesterday’s Close Rise : Today’s Close > Today’s Open BUT Today’s Close < Yesterday’s Close Fall : Today’s Close < Today’s Open BUT Today’s Close > Yesterday’s Close Slump : Today’s Close < Today’s Open AND Today’s Close < Yesterday’s Close
- 26. The Primary Trader GGRMIn Hollow Candlestick Rally Slump Fall Rise RiseRally SlumpFall
- 27. Previous Data Line,Signal Line and Histogram
- 28. The Primary Trader FlashBack What We Have Understood “Identify Trend Reversal at Relatively Early Stage” Technical Analysis definition by Martin J. Pring in Technical Analysis Explained book “A Trend Is Assumed To Be In Effect Until It Gives Definite Signal It Has Reversed” Dow Theory Breakout Resistance or Breakdown Support as a confirmation for Trend Reversal or Trend Continuation Crossover in Indicators as Buy or Sell Signals
- 29. We Need AStandard – As Early As Possible – Starting Point I’ll watch the finger that will trigger the gun
- 30. Previous Data Lineas Start Signal or Beginning
- 31. The Primary Trader BBCAWith Full Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
- 32. The Primary Trader BBCAWith Only Chikou Span Chikou Span : Shift the Black Line 26-Days Behind BBCA Line Chart
- 33. The Primary Trader ChikouSpan and Previous Data Line I don’t put Chikou Span in my Ichimoku Kinko Hyo because I can see it Simple line with Significant Meaning Without formula! Chikou Span is shifted 26-period behind Previous Data Line is shifted 1-period behind
- 34. Why 1-Period Behind? It’sA Starting Point
- 35. The Primary Trader PGASWith SMA-20 Days
- 36. The Primary Trader PGASWith SMA-20 Days and Previous SMA-20
- 37. The Primary Trader PGASWith SMA-20 Days and Previous SMA-20 (MACD Style)
- 38. The Primary Trader HowI Use MA Direction
- 39. Microscopic Technical Analysis :4 Signals Re-Concept Technical Analysis www.theprimarytrader.com The Primary Trader
- 40. The Primary Trader MicroscopicTechnical Analysis MACD Previous Data Line 4 Signals Direction Relative Performing Dandy Rotation
- 41. Stochastic Oscillator isMy Most Reliable Indicator
- 42. The Primary Trader StochasticOscillator Created by George Lane (1921 – 2004) “doesn't follow price, it doesn't follow volume or anything like that. It follows the speed or the momentum of price. As a rule, the momentum changes direction before price.”
- 43. The Primary Trader Formulaof Stochastic Oscillator (Standard Formula) 14 Period (days) Lowest in n-Days (Floor) %k ~ 0% (Oversold) %k ~ 100% (Overbought)
- 44. The Primary Trader MySetups of Stochastic Oscillator %k = 5-days (Period) %d = 2-days (Period)
- 45. The Primary Trader ASIIWith Stochastic Oscillator and Histogram
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- 48. The Primary Trader ASIIWith Stochastic Oscillator and Histogram
- 49. The Primary Trader Failure Swings : When Histogram fails to continue its current direction A Failure Swing could potentially indicate A Moment Before Histogram moves from Positive (or Negative) area to Negative (or Positive) area Failure Swings In Stochastic Oscillator Histogram Positive Failure Swings Negative Failure Swings
- 50. The Primary Trader Crossoverand Failure Swing Golden Crossover = Buy Death Crossover = Sell Positive Failure Swing = Alert Buy Negative Failure Swing = Warning Sell
- 51. The Primary Trader GoldenCrossover = Buy Death Crossover = Sell Negative Failure Swing = Warning SellPositive Failure Swing = Alert Buy Crossover and Failure Swings
- 52. The Primary Trader PayAttention Crossover is a confirmation, Failure Swing is not I use very short parameter (5 and 2 Periods) between %k and %d so most Failure Swing is most likely to have Crossover (simply because the difference between 5-period %k and 2-period %d is close enough) Need additional method to increase Accuracy
- 53. Microscopic Technical Analysis :Relative Performing Re-Concept Technical Analysis www.theprimarytrader.com The Primary Trader
- 54. The Primary Trader MicroscopicTechnical Analysis MACD Previous Data Line 4 Signals Direction Relative Performing Dandy Rotation
- 55. Hal yang palingditakuti oleh Investor / Trader Profesional ?
- 56. The Primary Trader Actual Market Goal Goal Market Actual Actualvs Market Performance
- 57. The Primary Trader Outperform Actual Performance is better than Market Performance 1. Actual Gain is higher than Market Gain 2. Actual Loss is smaller than Market Loss 3. Record a Gain while Market record a Loss Underperform Actual Performance is worse than Market Performance 1. Actual Gain is lower than Market Gain 2. Actual Loss is bigger than Market Loss 3. Record a Loss while Market record a Gain Relative Performance
- 58. The Primary Trader GGRM: -17.7% IHSG : -24.3% GGRM is Outperform JCI because record a smaller loss than JCI Ratio Chart GGRM – IHSG : Actual Loss is Smaller Than Market Loss
- 59. The Primary Trader AKRA: 6.25% IHSG : -24.3% AKRA is Outperform JCI because record gain while JCI suffer loss Ratio Chart AKRA – IHSG : Record a Gain While Market Suffer a Loss
- 60. The Primary Trader EXCL: -8.7% IHSG : 41.9% EXCL is Underperform JCI because suffer a loss while JCI record gain Ratio Chart EXCL – IHSG : Suffer a Loss While Market Record a Gain
- 61. The Primary Trader RatioChart ABCD – Benchmark Combine Classic Method Breakout Uptrend Ratio Chart ASII – JCI : JCI Price ASII Price
- 62. The Primary Trader ASII: 5.5% IHSG : 19% IHSG : 65%ASII : 119% Impact for ASII and JCI
- 63. So We Can“Technical Analyze” Ratio Chart ?
- 64. The Primary Trader RatioChart JSMR – IHSG + MA 60-days : Golden Cross
- 65. The Primary Trader IHSG: 8.1%
- 66.
- 67. The Primary Trader RatioChart JSMR – IHSG + MA 60-days : Death Cross
- 68.
- 69. The Primary Trader JSMR: -30%
- 70. Relative Performing + MicroscopicTechnical Analysis + Bollinger Band (Complete Set) + Data Visualization = Dandy Rotation
- 71. Microscopic Technical Analysis :Dandy Rotation Re-Concept Technical Analysis www.theprimarytrader.com The Primary Trader
- 72. The Primary Trader MicroscopicTechnical Analysis MACD Previous Data Line 4 Signals Direction Relative Performing Dandy Rotation
- 73. The Primary Trader DandyRotation Bollinger Band Microscopic Technical Analysis RRG Data Science
- 74.
- 75. The Primary Trader RRG– Bloomberg version
- 76.
- 77. The Primary Trader RRGMeaning In Every Quadrant
- 78. RRG mendeteksi pergerakan: Naik / Turun, sekaligus Relative Performance-nya (Outperform / Underperfom).
- 79. RRG merupakan bentuklain dari indicator : JdK RS-Momentum dan JdK RS-Ratio
- 80. The Complete Setof Bollinger Band
- 81. The Primary Trader BollingerBand Moving Average 20-Days +2 Standard Deviation of MA20 -2 Standard Deviation of MA20
- 82. The Primary Trader BollingerBand and %BB %BB : Stochastic Oscillator of Price and Upper – Lower Band Overshoot Undershoot
- 83. The Primary Trader BollingerBand and Bandwidth Bandwidth : Upper Band – Lower Band Squeeze Bulge
- 84. The Primary Trader BollingerBand Complete Set (+ Microscopic Technical Analysis) Bollinger Band %BB Bandwidth Middle Band Direction & Bandwidth Histogram Bandwidth Histogram Middle Band Direction
- 85. The Primary Trader BollingerBand – Complete Set Meet Microscopic Technical Analysis
- 86. RRG Concept +Relative Performing + %BB
- 87. The Primary Trader RelativePerformance of JSMR (vs IHSG)
- 88. The Primary Trader RatioChart of JSMR – IHSG with %BB and Middle Band %BB > Previous %BB = %BB Is Rising %BB < Previous %BB = %BB Is Falling RC > Middle Band = RC Is Rising RC < Middle Band = RC Is Falling
- 89. The Primary Trader RRGConcept Adoption In Dandy Rotation RRG JdK RS-Momentum (RSM) and JdK RS-Ratio (RSR) Quadrant : Leading : RSM > 100, RSR > 100 Weakening : RSM < 100, RSR > 100 Lagging : RSR < 100, RSM < 100 Improving : RSM < 100, RSM > 100 Dandy Rotation Ratio Chart of ABCD-IHSG and %BB of Ratio Chart ABCD – IHSG Quadrant : Outperform : RC > MA RC, %BB > Prev. %BB BoW : RC > MA RC, %BB < Prev. %BB Underperform : RC < MA RC, %BB < Prev. %BB Fast (Trade) : RC < MA RC, %BB > Prev. %BB Indexing
- 90. The Primary Trader BasicConcept of Dandy Rotation Ratio Chart of ABCD-IHSG and MA 20-days of Ratio Chart of ABCD-IHSG RC.JKSE and MA.RC %BB of Ratio Chart ABCD – IHSG and Previous Line RC.BB and PrevRC.BB Quadrant : Outperform : RC.JKSE > MA.RC, RC.BB > PrevRC.BB BoW : RC.JKSE > MA.RC, RC.BB < PrevRC.BB Underperform : RC.JKSE < MA.RC, RC.BB < PrevRC.BB Fast (Trade) : RC.JKSE < MA.RC, RC.BB > PrevRC.BB Ticker RC.JKSE MA.RC RC.BB PrevRC.BB X Scale Y Scale Quandrant ERAA 297.63 277.33 86.02 68.08 0.07 17.94 Outperform WOOD 73.91 78.86 3.09 -5.97 (0.06) 9.06 Fast RALS 105.87 111.81 -11.55 21.17 (0.05) (32.72) Underperform KAEF 421.48 337.16 68.86 74.34 0.25 (5.48) BoW X Scale -> KairiRC = (RC.JKSE / MA.RC)-1 Y Scale -> RCBB = RC.BB – PrevRC.BB
- 91. The Primary Trader ExcelVersion of Dandy Rotation (40.00) (30.00) (20.00) (10.00) - 10.00 20.00 30.00 (0.10) (0.05) - 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 Ticker X Scale Y Scale ERAA 0.07 17.94 WOOD (0.06) 9.06 RALS (0.05) (32.72) KAEF 0.25 (5.48) Buy On Weakness Quadrant Outperform Quadrant Underperform Quadrant Fast Quadrant RALS KAEF WOOD ERAA
- 92.
- 93. The Primary Trader Stepsin Data Visualization with R 1. Input “Relation” and “Sector” in Excel before Convert to R Data Frame 2. New Column (mutate) : RCBB = RC.BB – PrevRC.BB KairiRC = (RC.JKSE / MA.RC)-1 3. Use ggplot2 package and set : X-axis = KairiRC Y-axis = RCBB 4. Set Face to “Relation”
- 94. The Primary Trader BasicGraph of Dandy Rotation
- 95. Data Visualization MeansMore Features
- 96. The Primary Trader DandyRotation (Current Version)