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ManpowerGroup
Employment
Outlook Survey
Q2 2018
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 2
MEOS Q2 2018 Summary
 Last quarter, we reported that the national outlook hit its lowest level in five
years. That +4 for Q1 has now been revised up to +5, and Q2’s outlook is
back at +6, its highest level in just over a year. This is now the fourteenth
straight quarter of +5 or +6.
 Construction is down to just +1 and is now the equal-least optimistic
industry (alongside mining & quarrying).
 Hiring optimism in London is up two points to +2, but it remains well below
the national level. Its mean score of +3 over the last year is down
considerably on its +6 average outlook over the past five years.
 Optimism in retail, wholesale & hospitality has increased two points to +6
– the sector’s strongest outlook in three quarters.
 The manufacturing sector is down three points to +4 – its sharpest fall
since mid-2015 and the sector’s lowest level since late 2016.
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0
1 1
2 2 2 2 2
0
2 2
3
5 5 5
7
5
7 7 7
6 6 6
5
6 6 6
5
6
5 5 5 5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
National NEO
20182017
MEOS: Since Q1 2010
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 4
11
11
6
6
6
5
4
4
1
1
8
7
6
5
4
4
7
12
7
2 2Q '18 1Q '18
QoQ change
+3
+4
0
+1
+2
+1
-3
-8
-6
-1
ELECTICITY GAS & WATER
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHING
BUSINESS SERVICES & FINANCE
NATIONAL
WHOLESALE, RETAIL, RESTOS, HOTELS
PUBLIC & SOCIAL
MANUFACTURING
TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMS
CONSTRUCTION
MINING & QUARRYING
Outlook by sector
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 5
Outlook by company size
2
8
14
15
5
2
9
12
14
6
2Q '18 1Q '18
+1
-1
-2
+1
0
QoQ change
NATIONAL
LARGE
MEDIUM
SMALL
MICRO
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 6
Private sector hiring confidence has marginally
increased
-1
8
5
5
-3
5
6
6
2Q '18
1Q '18
+1
+1
-3
-2
QoQ change
PRIVATE
NATIONAL
NOT FOR PROFIT
PUBLIC
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 7
Regions and nations summary
 Once again, East Midlands (+9), West Midlands (+9) and East of
England (+10) dominate the upper reaches of the regional league table.
 The South West is up three points on the quarter and five points year on
year, to +8. The region has not been as upbeat at any time in the last two
years.
 Yorkshire and the Humber is the least upbeat region and the biggest
regional faller, down seven points to +1.
 Northern Ireland is on +2, level with London and down two points since
Q1, 2018.
 Scotland and Wales are both on +4, down two points and three points
respectively since the previous MEOS.
 The South East is also on +4, up one point from Q1. Along with London, the
region remains weak vs. its historic performance.
 The North East sees its outlook fall two points to +5, while the North West
is up four points from +3 to +7 – its highest level in over two years.
Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018
ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 8
Regions and nations breakdown
8
4
0
7
6
3
7
5
3
5
11
11
8
1
2
2
4
4
4
5
6
7
8
9
9
10
2Q '18 1Q '18
QoQ change
EAST
EAST MIDLANDS
WEST MIDLANDS
SOUTH WEST
NORTH WEST
NATIONAL
NORTH EAST
SOUTH EAST
SCOTLAND
WALES
LONDON
NORTHERN IRELAND
YORKS & HUMBER
+2
-2
-2
+3
+4
+1
-2
+1
-2
-3
+2
-2
-7

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MEOS Q2 2018 UK

  • 2. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 2 MEOS Q2 2018 Summary  Last quarter, we reported that the national outlook hit its lowest level in five years. That +4 for Q1 has now been revised up to +5, and Q2’s outlook is back at +6, its highest level in just over a year. This is now the fourteenth straight quarter of +5 or +6.  Construction is down to just +1 and is now the equal-least optimistic industry (alongside mining & quarrying).  Hiring optimism in London is up two points to +2, but it remains well below the national level. Its mean score of +3 over the last year is down considerably on its +6 average outlook over the past five years.  Optimism in retail, wholesale & hospitality has increased two points to +6 – the sector’s strongest outlook in three quarters.  The manufacturing sector is down three points to +4 – its sharpest fall since mid-2015 and the sector’s lowest level since late 2016.
  • 3. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 3 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 0 2 2 3 5 5 5 7 5 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 6 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 National NEO 20182017 MEOS: Since Q1 2010
  • 4. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 4 11 11 6 6 6 5 4 4 1 1 8 7 6 5 4 4 7 12 7 2 2Q '18 1Q '18 QoQ change +3 +4 0 +1 +2 +1 -3 -8 -6 -1 ELECTICITY GAS & WATER AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY & FISHING BUSINESS SERVICES & FINANCE NATIONAL WHOLESALE, RETAIL, RESTOS, HOTELS PUBLIC & SOCIAL MANUFACTURING TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMS CONSTRUCTION MINING & QUARRYING Outlook by sector
  • 5. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 5 Outlook by company size 2 8 14 15 5 2 9 12 14 6 2Q '18 1Q '18 +1 -1 -2 +1 0 QoQ change NATIONAL LARGE MEDIUM SMALL MICRO
  • 6. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 6 Private sector hiring confidence has marginally increased -1 8 5 5 -3 5 6 6 2Q '18 1Q '18 +1 +1 -3 -2 QoQ change PRIVATE NATIONAL NOT FOR PROFIT PUBLIC
  • 7. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 7 Regions and nations summary  Once again, East Midlands (+9), West Midlands (+9) and East of England (+10) dominate the upper reaches of the regional league table.  The South West is up three points on the quarter and five points year on year, to +8. The region has not been as upbeat at any time in the last two years.  Yorkshire and the Humber is the least upbeat region and the biggest regional faller, down seven points to +1.  Northern Ireland is on +2, level with London and down two points since Q1, 2018.  Scotland and Wales are both on +4, down two points and three points respectively since the previous MEOS.  The South East is also on +4, up one point from Q1. Along with London, the region remains weak vs. its historic performance.  The North East sees its outlook fall two points to +5, while the North West is up four points from +3 to +7 – its highest level in over two years.
  • 8. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey – Q2 2018 ManpowerGroup Tuesday, March 13, 2018 8 Regions and nations breakdown 8 4 0 7 6 3 7 5 3 5 11 11 8 1 2 2 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 2Q '18 1Q '18 QoQ change EAST EAST MIDLANDS WEST MIDLANDS SOUTH WEST NORTH WEST NATIONAL NORTH EAST SOUTH EAST SCOTLAND WALES LONDON NORTHERN IRELAND YORKS & HUMBER +2 -2 -2 +3 +4 +1 -2 +1 -2 -3 +2 -2 -7

Editor's Notes

  1. Let’s look at the meos highlights this time Nationally, we’ve ticked up marginally to +6% after two qs at +5 Why? In no small part it’s down to the public sector, which has swung from -2 to +2, its sharpest increase in two years off the back of the weak Tory performance in the election and the reduced focus on austerity. Construction is also storming along. Why? High demand
  2. consistency. Reflecting the strong, steady performance of the Uk jobs market
  3. The two Midlands regions are both down two points quarter on quarter, however, while the East is up two points from +8.