Mega Cities Full Report

megacities
on the move
your guide to the future of
sustainable urban mobility in 2040

Forum for the Future is the UK’s leading sustainable
development NGO. We work internationally with
government, business and public service providers,
helping them to develop strategies to achieve
success through sustainability, to deliver products
and services which enhance people’s lives and are
better for the environment, and to lead the way to
a better world.
www.forumforthefuture.org

Megacities on the Move has been led by Forum for the Future Authors: Director, EMBARQ Turkey; Nancy Kete, EMBARQ
Forum for the Future in partnership with Ivana Gazibara, James Goodman and former Director, EMBARQ; Clayton Lane, The EMBARQ global network catalyses
EMBARQ and was funded by Vodafone Peter Madden. Acting Director, EMBARQ. environmentally and financially sustainable
and the FIA Foundation for the Automobile transport solutions to improve quality of
and Society. Forum for the Future support team: Special thanks also to the many people life in cities. Since 2002, the network has
Chris Dewey, Stephanie Draper, Rupert who contributed to the project – through grown to include five Centres for Sustainable
Date of publication: Fausset, Joy Green, Joe Hall, Ruth interviews, workshops and peer reviews. Transport, located in Mexico, Brazil, India,
November 2010 Harwood, Clare Jenkinson, David Mason, Turkey and the Andean Region, that work
Gustavo Montes de Oca, Nathalie Nathe, For a full list please refer to the Appendix. together with local transport authorities to
Registered office: Will Nitch-Smith, Kate O’Hagan, Hanna reduce pollution, improve public health,
Overseas House Plant, Francesca Rutherford, Ulrike Stein, FIA Foundation and create safe, accessible and attractive
19–23 Ironmonger Row Claire Wyatt. The FIA Foundation is an independent urban public spaces. www.embarq.org
London EC1V 3QN UK registered charity which manages
Special thanks to our partners: and supports an international programme
Company No. 2959712 Sheila Watson, Director of Environment, of activities promoting road safety,
VAT Reg. No. 6777475 70 The FIA Foundation; Nicola Woodhead, environmental protection and sustainable Download
Charity No. 1040519 Group Environment Manager, Vodafone; mobility, as well as funding specialist
Chris Burgess, Corporate Responsibility motor sport safety research. All the Megacities on the Move
Design: Director, Vodafone; Caroline Dewing, www.fiafoundation.org resources at:
www.thomasmatthews.com Senior Manager, Communications Strategy, www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/
Vodafone; Samaresh Parida, Director, Vodafone megacities-on-the-move
Strategy, Vodafone Essar; Prema Shrikrishna, Vodafone is one of the world’s largest mobile
Manager – Corporate Responsibility, communications companies by revenue
Vodafone Essar; Tugba Unal, Corporate with approximately 347 million proportionate For more information on Megacities on
Affairs, Vodafone Turkey; Prajna Rao, customers as at 30 June 2010. Vodafone the Move or to organise a workshop
Urban Planner, EMBARQ (CST India); currently has equity interests in over 30 please email Ivana Gazibara at:
Madhav Pai, Director, EMBARQ India; countries across ﬁve continents and over megacitiesonthemove@forumforthefuture.
Ahmet Birsel, Programme Manager, 40 partner networks worldwide. For more org, or call +44 (0)20 7324 3673.
EMBARQ (SUM Turkey); Sibel Bulay, information, please visit www.vodafone.com

Return to contents about page 2

contents
1. 2. 3. 4.
overview p4 what’s your destination? what can you do? six plan the future now
four scenarios for urban solutions for sustainable how to run a workshop
Foreword p5 mobility in 2040 p17 urban mobility p36 using the scenarios p49
How can you use this toolkit? p7
What are scenarios? p18 1. Integrate, integrate, integrate p38 Sample workshop agenda
What’s ahead? and exercises p50
Factors shaping the future p8 How were the scenarios created? p18 2. Make the poor a priority p40
Case study: Istanbul p56
What can you do? Key variables: energy sources 3. Go beyond the car p41
Six solutions for sustainable and global governance p19 Case study: Mumbai p60
urban mobility p11 4. Switch on to IT networks p43
The scenarios: Appendix: Thank yous p64
Scenario summaries p12 Planned-opolis p20 5. ‘Refuel’ our vehicles p45
Sprawl-ville p24
Perspectives from our partners p16 Renew-abad p28 6. Change people’s behaviour p47
Communi-city p32

scenarios:

planned-opolis p20 sprawl-ville p24 renew-abad p28 communi-city p32

contents page 3

1. overview
megacities on the move

foreword – the future Megacities on the Move, a collaboration
between Forum for the Future, the FIA
impacts of changing weather patterns.
Throughout human history we have built our

of the world is urban Foundation, Vodafone and EMBARQ, can
help you find answers to these questions.
It is a toolkit designed to help governments,
major settlements on rivers, estuaries and
coasts. Sea level rise and more frequent and
intense storms and floods are just some of
companies and civil society organisations the impacts cities will have to contend with.
How will people travel in the cities of the future? understand the challenges of the future and
How will billions of city-dwellers access what start planning for sustainable city living. It is clear that people must find sustainable
they need without putting intolerable strains ways to live and travel in cities. We won’t
Humankind recently reached a historic survive without new thinking and more
on the planet? How can we plan now for more tipping point: for the first time more people creative approaches. We will need
sustainable ways of life in a radically different world? live in cities than outside them. This trend completely new ways to produce and
is set to intensify. By 2040 two in three deliver goods and services, consume
people on the planet will be city-dwellers.1 and move about. Cities are in many ways
There will be many more of us, as world places of opportunity – hot-houses for
population grows by two billion, and far economic, social and cultural innovation
more megacities, primarily in Asia, Africa – so they are likely to be the places where
and Latin America. we find new solutions to mobility.

The social, environmental and economic
implications of this will be enormous.
Tokyo skyline All over the globe, cities need to start What is ‘mobility’?
planning now to radically re-engineer their
infrastructures to cope with much larger In this toolkit, ‘mobility’ means more
populations than they currently support. than just transport. Our definition
of mobility is a means of access
But cities do not exist in isolation. They – to goods, services, people and
will need to succeed in a world where information. This includes physical
key resources are in short supply: from movement, but also other solutions
oil scarcity and rising energy prices to such as ICT-based platforms, more
competition between biofuels and food effective public service delivery
production, there are major challenges provision, and urban design that
ahead that face us all. There will be improves accessibility. To plan for
critical questions about how we manage people’s needs in the megacities
these resources, who controls them, and of the future, we need to look at all
who can afford them. of these aspects together.

Overlaying – and intensifying – all of these
pressures is climate change. Cities will have What are ‘megacities’?
to deal with both the policy responses, such Megacities are urban areas with a
as more expensive carbon, and the physical population in excess of 10 million
people. For more information, see:
1
United Nations Department of Economic and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity
Social Affairs, World Urbanization Prospects:
The 2009 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/index.
htm (accessed on 24 September, 2010).

Return to contents 1. overview > foreword page 5

Megacities on the Move offers six sustainable “ The goal is not transport, but accessibility ULTra PRT, © www.ultraprt.com
mobility solutions that we can all begin – more productivity, more mobility, more
acting on today, from integrated planning, beauty in one day.”
to looking beyond the car, to improved use > Sue Zielinski, MD, Sustainable Mobility
of technology. But more than anything, & Accessibility Research & Transformation,
we want you to take this toolkit and apply University of Michigan
it to your own context. Through research,
interviews, and workshops in Istanbul and
Mumbai, we have collected the most exciting
thinking about sustainable mobility. We have
used this to create four scenarios that paint
challenging but realistic pictures of what the
future could hold. They enable you to explore
your future, whoever you are, wherever you
are – and shape your own response.

The future of the world is urban. Because of
the rapid modernisation of countries such as
Brazil, China, India and Turkey, we are seeing
the largest rural-urban migration in history.
How that urban development happens will
lock-in behaviour for decades to come, so it
needs to be sustainable. It is no exaggeration
to say that the global race for sustainability
will be won or lost in our cities.

Peter Madden, Madhav Pai,
CEO, Forum for the Future Director, EMBARQ India

Clayton Lane, Sheila Watson, Megacities on the Move
Acting Director, EMBARQ Director of Environment, The FIA Foundation
Read on to ﬁnd out more about
the challenges and solutions of the
future. Download all the Megacities
on the Move resources at: www.
forumforthefuture.org/projects/
Sibel Bulay, Nicola Woodhead, megacities-on-the-move
Director, EMBARQ Turkey Group Environment Manager, Vodafone

Return to contents 1. overview > foreword page 6

how can you 1. Overview 4. Plan the future now: How to run
a workshop using the scenarios

use this toolkit? You can use this section to introduce your
colleagues, business partners and clients
to the issues.
One of the best ways to get engaged in
the challenges you face is to organise
a workshop. This section gives speciﬁc
Megacities on the Move is designed to be a practical 2. What’s your destination? Four guidance on how to plan a workshop on
toolkit which can help public bodies, companies and scenarios for urban mobility in 2040 the future of urban mobility, using the four
civil society organisations develop strategies which scenarios as a starting point to explore
Want to explore what the future may hold issues relevant to you and develop a strategy
will enable people to live and travel more sustainably and test your strategy? Our scenarios and action plan. In May and June 2010
in the major cities of the 21st century. It aims to help – Planned-opolis, Sprawl-ville, Renew-abad, Forum for the Future ran similar workshops
you understand the key long-term issues better, apply and Communi-city - are four possible visions in Mumbai and Istanbul – you can see
of urban mobility in the world of 2040. They the highlights from this process which may
them to your own thinking, and inspire innovative can be a very effective tool for understanding give you ideas for your own workshop.
solutions. The toolkit contains four sections and a set how complex factors may play out and
of scenario animations. shape very different futures, challenging Scenario animations:
and inspiring organisations to plan for more Bringing the future to life
effective solutions. They are designed to
strengthen strategy and policy, advocate We have brought the scenarios to life in
long-term thinking and build collaborative four short, vivid and compelling animations
visions for a sustainable future. examining mobility challenges and solutions
as we follow a day in the life of an ordinary
3. What can you do? Six solutions woman in each of the four worlds.
for sustainable urban mobility Animations give a snapshot of each scenario
and can be a very effective way of engaging
If you are motivated to bring innovation into your audience in the subject.
your strategic planning, these are actions
you can take now to help create the
sustainable urban mobility systems of
the future. This section includes practical
examples of how these solutions are already
being put into practice around the world;
from integrated cities to intelligent trafﬁc
systems, automotive technology, car-free
days and virtual meetings.

Return to contents 1. overview > how can you use this toolkit? page 7

what’s ahead? factors shaping what can we be more
certain about?
most of Europe and North America.
These changes will put increasing pressure

the future of urban mobility Climate change
on mobility in cities, and make it more
difficult to ensure a growing and ageing
urban population can access affordable
mobility solutions – such as public transport
What does the future hold for large cities of the 21st The scientific consensus is that climate and other essential services.
century? We can be more or less certain about how change is a reality and that it is extremely
certain factors will play out. What we are certain of likely to be the result of human activity. We “ In an optimistic scenario, cities will have
are already seeing the effects: we continue to planned to create an urban environment
is that the responses to these factors will be critical break temperature records; extreme weather for people. They will make their planning
in determining the nature of mobility in our cities. events are increasingly common; and the and infrastructure investments based on
melting of Arctic ice may now be irreversible. accessibility for people.”
Even if we manage to take early global action > Nancy Kete, former Director, EMBARQ
to decarbonise our economies, the pollution
we emit now will stay in the atmosphere Resource constraints
São Paulo – unless deliberately removed by human
action – for decades.2 This growing global population also has
an increasing taste for resource-intensive
Climate change will affect key aspects of goods such as meat and cars. The result
our lives and will have profound impacts is exploding global demand for water and
on our cities in particular. Heatwaves or land for crops, livestock, domestic use
flash flooding, for example, will impact the and biofuels; fossil fuels to power transport
comfort, cost and reliability of daily urban life. or production; and minerals, metals and
But climate change will also affect the vast forests for manufacturing.
areas, both near and far, that cities rely on
for supplies such as water, food or energy. All of these resources are already heavily
Ultimately, climate change could affect cities’ exploited, and many face the possibility of
basic ability to function. severe depletion or even exhaustion in the
first half of the century. Scarcity will lead to
“ Climate change will change the game, competition and high, volatile resource prices
bringing forward ‘the first predictable – it seems likely that the age of cheap oil
industrial revolution’.” and cheap energy is over, for example. This
> Paul Dickinson, Executive Chairman, will have a knock-on effect on the cost and
Carbon Disclosure Project availability of transport and other goods and
services essential to everyday needs in cities.
Demographic trends Urban societies can respond in different
ways: through technological innovation,
We can be reasonably certain about behaviour change, economic development,
population increases over the next 30 migration patterns and more.
years: from 6.8 billion people in 2010 to 2
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, http://
approximately 8.8 billion in 2040.3 This www.ipcc.ch/, The Royal Society, http://royalsociety.
growth won’t be evenly distributed: most org/climate-change/.
3
of it will occur in the cities of Africa, China, UN Department of Social and Economic Affairs,
World Population Prospects, 2008 revision: http://esa.
India and Latin America. China will also be un.org/unpd/wpp2008/index.htm (accessed on 24
dealing with an ageing population, as will September 2010).

Return to contents 1. overview > what’s ahead? page 8

what are we less certain about?

Energy supply and demand Global economy Climate change responses
“ Governments make a lot of money on
It is highly uncertain how societies will Economic growth creates a spiral of greater The response to climate change is likely to
fuel duty, and this would be displaced
respond to the exploding demand yet demand for mobility, and greater demand deeply affect how cities of the future look,
by electrons if electric vehicles were
stagnating supply of energy, especially oil. for goods and services. Providing more feel and operate. The Megacities on the
mainstreamed – so there will have to
But it is clear the energy mix that’s in place goods and services requires more transport, Move scenarios all show a different balance
be a profound shift in terms of how
in 2040 will determine what types of mobility support and staff; increased wealth allows of measures to adapt to climate change and
governments generate income, and
systems we have in our cities. For example, people to travel more and encourages more reduce further emissions. For example, in the
structure tax and incentives.”
if there is a large-scale shift to renewable expensive modes of transport such as the carefully planned and centralised world of
> Tom Briggs, Vice President, Policy and
energy, this could favour electric, solar or car; and growth in property prices leads to Planned-opolis, streets are lined with carbon
Communications, BP Alternative Energy
hydrogen-powered vehicles. Or if energy longer commutes. scrubbers that suck carbon dioxide out of
is expensive and inaccessible to most, this the atmosphere, and neighbourhoods are
could favour mass transit over personal We have come to take growth for granted, designed from scratch to maximise natural Social structures
motorised transport. People’s lifestyle but could resource limitations or climate cooling. In contrast, the cities of Sprawl-
choices, such as opting for virtual services change bring the seemingly endless ville are designed by the rich for the rich, Traditionally, most societies have favoured
instead of travel, could directly affect energy expansion cycle to an end? Or, might lifestyle who effectively live in a city within the city, the family as the core unit, often with
demand levels in cities too. changes alter how we think about growth protected from the floods and heat to which strong communities surrounding the family.
and wellbeing, affecting everything from the poor are exposed. These communities were typically more
“ By 2040, the grid will be different: we consumption patterns to modal choices? self-sufficient and had lower levels of
will be burning electrons rather than Governance mobility. Today, many cities are becoming
hydrocarbons. Those electrons will “ In places like Istanbul and Mumbai, with more atomised spaces, with a huge influx
be greener, so there will be a lot more large populations with rapid economic There are big gaps in global governance of diverse groups and more emphasis on
renewable energy generation.” growth, it is absolutely key that they systems on major issues including energy, individuals. This could spell the decline
> Gordon Feller, Director of Urban focus on restraining growth in vehicle food, water and climate change. If these are of traditional community structures and
Innovations at Cisco Systems use. It’s arguably the hardest and the not improved, or if governance deteriorates, an emergence of new types of community
most important challenge confronting our countries and cities will be more for the ‘urban age’ – more networked,
Resource use these cities.” vulnerable to external shocks. City-level flexible, and mobile, but also more
> Dan Sperling, author of “Two Billion Cars: governance is also critical, particularly when temporary. Equally, there is a possibility
Mobility is essentially about the ability Driving Towards Sustainability” it comes to mobility – for example, to develop that we might see a reassertion of traditional
to access goods, services, people and well-designed public transport systems, community and family structures in the
information. Therefore the future response maintain order and support the integration cities of the future, whether as a backlash
to resource scarcity will have a huge of various mobility networks. against too much individualism and social
impact on urban mobility and quality of life. fragmentation, or as a result of resource and
If there is strategic investment in energy, It is highly uncertain how the quality, climate constraints.
food and water supply infrastructure, effectiveness and structure of governance
for example, cities will be better able to systems will unfold. Different approaches
ensure their citizens can access essential to governance could profoundly affect
goods and services. If there are inadequate mobility in cities – from tightly controlled
responses to resource scarcity, life in and networked mobility systems on one end
megacities of the future will be tough, of the spectrum, to a chaotic proliferation
with rapid population growth but too few of mobility solutions in a world with poor
resources to meet people’s demands. governance on the other.


Values Business Technological development Urban form

The 20th century was the age of the car. It Future trends such as climate change Technological change has reached an Currently we are on a pathway to ever-
became a status symbol for those who had impacts, resource constraints, technological unprecedented speed, and this is likely to increasing urban sprawl, and in some cases
it, and an aspiration for those who could not innovation, or cost pressures on public continue into the future – though innovation megacities merging with neighbouring cities
afford it. In the age of rising middle classes services, will present a number of risks could also be stifled as a result of various and towns. These mega-regions, formed
in emerging economies, demand for the car and opportunities to businesses operating economic or political factors, as in our by megacities that stretch hundreds of
may explode – as we are already seeing in in cities. The typical urban mobility Sprawl-ville scenario. Many place faith in kilometres – sometimes across state borders
markets such as China. Managed badly, model is state-funded public transport technology, and indeed new vehicle systems – form vast belts of high population density
this could have detrimental impacts on the systems, competing and combining with do have the potential to reduce energy and and economic power and create huge
quality of life in cities – from air pollution, to privately owned cars and taxis running carbon impacts dramatically, especially challenges for governance and mobility.
congestion and road safety, to exacerbation on public roads. from cars. However, it is much harder to
of climate impacts. predict what technological developments However, this trend is not inevitable and
This could change in a number of different we will have in 2040, and even how influential it is possible to reverse it. For example,
However, future generations may have a ways. There will almost certainly be these will be compared to other factors, from many urban planners and transport officials
different set of mobility preferences. Today’s opportunities to provide digital alternatives policy to behaviour change. today advocate replacing low density
children will have grown up with immersive to physical mobility – from employment, to car-centric cities and zoned land use with
networking technology, and are likely to be retail, to leisure. New business models could Certainly, ICT-based innovation will be a denser, integrated urban villages based
much more comfortable spending time in emerge in personal mobility as well, such prominent feature of our lives, particularly around mixed land use, public transport
virtual spaces. There are already signs in as today’s urban car clubs. Office spaces in increasingly networked cities, where the and walkability. Our scenarios reflect these
some cities that the popularity of the car and the way we work could change, and ability to be permanently connected could different possibilities.
as a status symbol is declining, especially private sector provision could extend bring better access to goods, services and
as congestion problems get worse and further into areas traditionally addressed other people with less need for physical “ In the past 100 years, the automobile has
alternative status symbols (such as smart by governments – from public transport transport. Transport technology innovations shaped the city rather than cities shaping
technology devices) emerge. to wider infrastructure. might include further changes in vehicle the automobile. In the future the opposite
design, propulsion systems and energy will be the case: cities will start to shape
“ The UK government banned smoking sources to address congestion, carbon mobility.”
in public places and nobody batted an emissions and safety. The most anticipated > Chris Borroni-Bird, Director of Advanced
eyelid. A generation ago, this would trend is for new electric vehicles, including Technology Vehicle Concepts, GM
have been unthinkable. At the moment, low carbon power-trains similar to electric
mobility is different. There is no sense cars. Other possibilities include buses or
that mobility causes harm. Indeed it is cars driven by locally produced hydrogen
seen as a good thing if you can afford or biofuels.
it. Maybe attitudes to travel will change
like they did to smoking.” “ The convergence between cities and other
> Ben Plowden, Director of Integrated areas will grow as we start to spend time in
Programme Delivery, Transport for London ‘virtual cities’.”
> Guy Summers, R&D Collaboration
Manager, Vodafone

Cyclist in Mumbai


what can you do?
six solutions for
sustainable urban mobility
Looking 30 years into the future, the challenges
– and the solutions – can seem a long way off.
But everyone involved in urban mobility can take
action today, whether you are a government, city
authority, urban planner, transport provider, in
business or the public sector.

High speed train

1. Integrate, integrate, integrate 3. Go beyond the car 5. ‘Refuel’ our vehicles Want to see how this is happening
in the real world?
Transport, urban planning, business, public Current growth rates in car ownership are As oil becomes more scarce, expensive and
services, energy and food supply can no simply unsustainable: there are already one a security risk, we will need to implement Please see section 3 for more details
longer be considered in isolation. Together, billion cars in the world, projected to grow greater energy efficiency measures, as and practical examples of how
we need to create integrated mobility to two billion within a few decades.4 We well as shift to powering our vehicles with these six solutions are already being
systems that will provide people with choice, need alternative ways of getting around, renewable, low-carbon fuel sources. We will designed, put into practice, or scaled
flexibility and seamless connectivity whether and we need to design for people, not cars. need significant investment in battery and up around the world: from integrated
they are travelling from one place to another We will need urban neighbourhoods with fuel technology to seize this opportunity and cities to intelligent traffic systems,
or accessing the things they need virtually. the infrastructure to serve local communities take alternative energy-powered vehicles biofuels to battery technology,
and dense developments that prevent further to scale over the next few decades. Most car-free days to travel-free virtual
2. Make the poor a priority sprawl, are easy to walk around, and provide vehicle technology experts agree that meetings. Download it from:
access to key goods and services. advanced technologies also have enormous www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/
Mobility systems must work for rich and potential to improve fuel efficiency. megacities-on-the-move
poor alike, to ensure everyone has access to 4. Switch on to IT networks
goods, services and job opportunities. Cities 6. Change people’s behaviour
already have many people on lower incomes There is enormous potential for information
and this trend will only increase. Tailored technology to reduce the need for physical Many of our future challenges are shaped by
mobility solutions must be designed to meet movement by enabling urban dwellers to people’s values, behaviour and preferences.
their needs. access more and more services online. Using We need to think about ways to influence
IT networks to connect and coordinate cars mass behaviour and social norms in positive
and public transport can also help reduce ways to promote low-carbon, healthier urban
traffic congestion and accident risks. lifestyles. Future leading cities will plan today
to influence lifestyles rather than simply
relying on additional road infrastructure and 4
Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon, Two Billion
modes of transport. Cars, Oxford University Press, New York, 2009.

Return to contents 1. overview > what can you do? page 11

scenario summary: urban form Energy > Centralised grids rely on gas-
fired power stations and carbon capture

planned-opolis Because energy is very expensive, cities
are highly managed, with limited personal
mobility and efficient public transport
networks. In some cases, cities are
and storage.

Resources > Strict planning and rationing
ensure resources are used as efficiently
In a world of fossil fuels and expensive downsized or even designed and built as possible.
from scratch. Floating cities are also
energy, the only solution is tightly taking off in coastal areas as a key climate Economy > A strong, regulated economy
planned and controlled urban transport. adaptation strategy. invests in technology and infrastructure.

Climate change > Cities are replanned
mobility as extreme measures are taken to
decarbonise the world.
Mobility choices are constrained. People
have allowed ICT and the advent of ‘virtual Governance > One-size-fits-all
city spaces’ to replace a large portion governance is effective, but reduces
of physical travel. Many cities ban cars freedom.
in central areas to meet carbon targets.
Personal vehicles are available only to Social structures > Society is fairer
the wealthy, so the average citizen moves but less individualistic.
around the city using tightly controlled and
networked public transport systems, and Values > It is a hard-working but high-
by walking or cycling through strictly non- trust world.
motorised zones.
Business > Big business is everywhere,
and even governs some cities.
highlights
Technology > We live in a hi-tech world
Feeling hot? > People keep cool under the of integrated systems and virtualisation.
ten million trees the city has planted.

What’s on the menu? > The Global Food
Council can tell you – it decides what food is
grown in which region.

Need to get away? > Millions of people
now live in floating cities and millions more
escape daily to virtual cities like ‘London 2.0’.

Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 1: planned-opolis page 12

scenario summary: urban form Energy > Oil production peaked around
2030 but transport still uses fossil fuel

sprawl-ville The city is a great fragmented sprawl.
There are huge, low-density suburbs,
freeways to connect them, and commuter
jams. In the periphery of the city there
– particularly gas – and focuses on
efficiency.

Resources > Resource scarcity has
The city is dominated by fossil fuel-powered cars. are numerous ‘failed’ developments, lowered the quality of life for the urban
built too far from public transport and masses in this elite-controlled world.
The elite still gets around, but most urban therefore unaffordable to urban commuters
dwellers face poor transport infrastructure. now that oil prices are high. They either Economy > The global economy is
become ghetto areas for poorer people stagnant, susceptible to protectionism
or are reborn as local communities trying and shrinking supply chains.
to provide their own services.
Climate change > Short-term thinking
rules as people focus on adapting and
mobility protecting their property.

In urban areas, the car-dominant model Governance > Cities are governed by and
persists, although the average personal for the elites – they maintain just enough
vehicle is now an ultra-efficient hybrid or of the basic infrastructure to minimise
diesel car. As the poor are increasingly public disorder.
unable to afford the daily car commute,
urban ghetto areas spread in the city core Social structures > It’s a less equal world
and informal paratransit 5 services spring where the informal economy prospers.
up to serve community needs. People begin
to alter their commute to address daily Values > Tension is growing as people
needs: nomad businessmen sit in traffic in lose faith in consumerism and the world
armoured vehicles, working while moving is increasingly polarised into religious and
slowly from meeting to meeting; many of ethnic extremes.
the cars bought by the emerging global
middle classes become driveway trophies Business > Business is powerful – with
rather than a practical means of transport, an expanded role in society as a result of
as people return to buses and bicycles. less public service provision – but it is less
accountable.

highlights Technology > There are efficiency gains
but few major breakthroughs.
Where’s my car? > Everywhere! Cars are still
in favour and still the ultimate status symbol.

Don’t like the jam? > It’s a 24-hour city 5
An alternative mode of flexible passenger
– of never-ending congestion. transportation that does not follow fixed routes
or schedules. Typically mini-buses are used to
Fill up the tank? > Businessmen get provide paratransit service, but share taxis and
jitneys are also important providers. For more
around in tank-like armoured cars to information, see the Wikipedia entry on paratransit:
protect themselves. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paratransit

Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 2: sprawl-ville page 13

scenario summary 3 urban form Energy > It’s a brave new world where we
have rapidly embraced renewable energy.

renew-abad The age of urban sprawl is over: cities are
becoming more densely populated as
they set boundaries for growth. City states
have re-emerged as powerful forces to
Resources > There’s a shortage of food
and land, and resource use is strictly
regulated.
The world has turned to alternative energy, be reckoned with. Neighbourhoods are
organised around hubs providing integrated Economy > Economic power has shifted
and high-tech, clean, well-planned transport services from in-house energy generation south to China, India and their allies.
helps everyone get around. to vehicle charging points to community
centres and ﬂexible ofﬁces. Climate change > An early global deal
on climate change means that the most
dangerous impacts were averted.
mobility
Governance > Strict governance holds
On city streets, many more personal sway in nation-states and city-states alike.
vehicles are electric or hybrid, and electric
rail and buses are the top choice for public Social structures > The rich-poor gap
transport. Energy continues to be relatively has narrowed within societies, though
expensive, so people often switch between many regions have been left behind in the
personal vehicles, public transport, walking low carbon race.
and cycling. The infrastructure has been
massively upgraded in many cities to Values > People value simplicity and
encourage this. Sophisticated augmented authenticity.
reality services reduce the need for physical
travel, and almost every aspect of transport Business > Business provides low-
is guided by technology. impact services in collaboration with
governments.

highlights Technology > Innovation is driven and
regulated by the public sector. There have
Waiting for the train? > There are ultra-high- been important breakthroughs, including
speed rail links connecting every suburb. in electric vehicle battery technology.

Drive off into the sunset? > Solar scooters
are one of the popular ways to get around.

Who’s in charge? > The city council controls
our lives to keep us safe and comfortable
– and we like it.

Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 3: renew-abad page 14

scenario summary 4 urban form Energy > Local renewable energy
generation and decentralised grids have

communi-city Power has devolved to individuals and
communities; cities have become more
informal and sometimes chaotic centres
of creativity. For example, community-
superseded coal, gas and oil.

Resources > Cities have transformed to
produce more of their own food and deal
The world has turned to alternative energy, and organised vertical and small-scale locally with waste and water.
horticulture has ﬂourished, with balconies,
transport is highly personalised with a huge variety roofs and the sides of buildings given Economy > Grassroots business and new
of transport modes competing for road space. over to growing food. technology compensate for protectionist
trade and slow global growth.

mobility Climate change > People and
communities adapt to climate change
Personal and individualised mobility is and reduce carbon, despite weak
important. Modes of transport proliferate global policy.
and people move about in a range of small
electric vehicles – souped-up bikes, covered Governance > Central coordination is
scooters, pod-cars and so on. Customisation weak and more power resides at the
is rife. Some people even build their vehicles community level using computer-based
locally from kits, using open-source designs, collaborative tools.
local materials and home-brewed biofuels.
The roads look chaotic with so many vehicle Social structures > It’s a more unequal
types and so much personalised transport world, but full of opportunities if you’re
– but somehow it all works, through smart able to grab them.
use of information technology to avoid
collisions and optimise routes. Values > People are less consumerist
and less status-driven; they look more
to religion and community.
highlights
Business > Business is more local and
Plant-powered public transport? > decentralised, and many global brands
‘Biobuses’ are one of the most popular are now extinct.
cheap ways to get around the city.
Technology > Rapid breakthroughs make
DIY everything? > 3D printers allow technology an exciting area of change,
anyone to be a homegrown manufacturer and many people are involved through
– from furniture to fashion. grassroots innovation and research.

Where did our centre go? > There is no
city centre any more, everyone has their
own very different neighbourhood.

Return to contents 1. overview > scenario 4: communi-city page 15

perspectives from our partners

Imagination in energy Transformation through technology A vision for Istanbul, Mumbai – Want to plan your own workshop?
and megacities around the world
“It is our conviction that mobility is central “Given the rate of change, our world will be Get a how-to guide for organising a
to the delivery of wider human benefits of a very different place by 2040. Engineering “Both Mumbai and Istanbul have grown sustainable urban mobility workshop
economic development, social interaction and technological innovations will transform phenomenally in the past two decades, and find out more about Istanbul
and freedom to explore our surroundings. urban living – in particular the way we both geographically and in population. and Mumbai in section 4: Plan
However, we believe also that these positive communicate and share information, as With this growth as a given, the scenarios your future now. Download it from:
benefits are entirely dependent on the the convergence of internet and mobile for both cities presented an elaborate www.forumforthefuture.org/projects/
extent to which mobility is both safe and technology becomes a reality. Expect imagination of our world 30 years from megacities-on-the-move
sustainable. The FIA Foundation’s work mobile networks to extend beyond human now, charted on the two crucial elements
– from promoting fuel efficiency in the world’s communication; everything that could benefit of our future in this world: fuel dominance
cars to working for the greatest possible from a wireless network is likely to have one; and governance structure.
safety on our roads – aims to ensure that it is. and connectivity will combine with energy,
water management, transport and health The future scenarios approach provides
The specific challenges in addressing an as more services are delivered online. a unique opportunity to plan for the long-
increasingly urban and intensively populated term and bring it into the present. EMBARQ
planet are complex. However, they centre Vodafone has participated in Megacities partnered with Forum for the Future on
around our ability to be efficient in our use on the Move because we believe we have workshops in Istanbul and Mumbai (read
of energy and imaginative in how we source a role to play in shaping solutions for the more about these in section 4 – Plan the
it. Of equal importance will be our capacity future. This project builds upon the issues future now).
to work together across the globe to find identified in our Future Agenda project
common and coordinated solutions. Our (www.futureagenda.org) and supports We believe it is urgent to abandon many
global response has not been impressive the work we have already done in other of the current planning practices and
so far. To the extent that this is due to a lack areas where we believe our products move to less energy intensive options in
of information and shared understanding, and services can help others make a preparation for 2040. Our hope is that
our hope is that this study will cast some difference, for example Carbon Connections the scenarios exercise will catalyse not
useful light into that darkness.” (www.vodafone.com/carbonconnections). only a discussion of transport and urban
development in Istanbul and Mumbai, but
Sheila Watson Although cities themselves have a also contribute to the discussion of energy
Director of Environment, FIA Foundation remarkable ability to innovate, it is difficult policies nationally and around the world.”
for urban planners to keep up with the
pace of change. This project is a valuable Sibel Bulay
resource for city authorities, businesses Director, EMBARQ Turkey
and policy makers, to allow them to think
beyond traditional solutions and consider Madhav Pai
different approaches.” Director, EMBARQ India

Nicola Woodhead Clayton Lane
Group Environment Manager, Vodafone Acting Director, EMBARQ

Return to contents 1. overview > perspectives from our partners page 16

2. what’s your
destination?

four scenarios for
urban mobility in 2040
The future is likely to be dramatically different from
today. To get the future we want, we need to be better
at understanding what it might look like, what will
shape it, and what is already happening today that
could affect it.

what are scenarios? how were the scenarios created?
Scenarios are explorations of alternative • How might our mobility needs and In order to create the scenarios, we went Scenario planning
futures. They are a tool to challenge, inspire aspirations change? through a number of key phases:
and support individuals and organisations • How might sustainability challenges Based on the key factors and trends we
to plan ahead. Scenarios are designed to such as resource constraints, climate Why 2040? then developed scenarios showing different
strengthen strategy and policy, advocate change impacts and social (in)equality possible outcomes for mobility in cities in the
long-term thinking and build a collaborative impact personal mobility in cities? We chose to examine the future of mobility in year 2040. Using these scenarios, we also
vision for a sustainable future. • What might be the modal mix of 2040 because urban infrastructure has a long created outlines of city-speciﬁc scenarios for
transport solutions? life, so setting a 30 year timeline provides Istanbul and Mumbai, suggesting what might
Scenarios are not predictions. We do not • Which of our mobility needs might enough time to plan for and deliver a new happen locally in each city within the context
think that any one scenario is more likely be met in ways other than transport generation of sustainable mobility solutions. of the global-level scenarios.
than the other, nor is our intention to (e.g. through virtual services or urban
prescribe one scenario as ‘best case’ or planning solutions)? Horizon-scanning research City workshops
‘worst case’. All scenarios should present
elements of a possible future, and present As part of this phase we undertook desk We conducted 2-day workshops in Istanbul
a realistic combination of positive and research as well as structured interviews with and Mumbai to validate the scenarios,
negative developments. more than 40 experts involved in different identify relevant challenges and opportunities
aspects of urban mobility from around the for the local context, as well as short,
The Megacities on the Move scenarios world – including stakeholders in the two medium and long-term solutions that could
are intended to present plausible future cities we had chosen to test the scenarios, be implemented. In particular we asked
developments, describing the challenges Istanbul and Mumbai. Our aim was to identify people to critique the scenarios, and tell us
and opportunities of personal mobility in current forces and uncertainties around what they thought were the most plausible
large cities in 2040. Each scenario covers urban mobility, as well as get interviewees’ outcomes and trends.
a range of issues and addresses a number perspectives on key factors and trends
of critical questions, including: shaping the future of mobility. Partner workshops

We also conducted workshops for the
project partners in an effort to explore
the implications of the scenarios for their
organisations, and identify options for
future strategy responses.

Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > four scenarios for urban mobility in 2040 page 18

key variables: Fossil fuels dominant

energy sources and
global governance
Amongst the uncertainties, we identified two as the most critical in
influencing future mobility solutions: energy supply and demand, planned-opolis sprawl-ville
and governance systems. Our research indicated that these are the
most uncertain trends and have the greatest potential impact on the
future of urban mobility. We identified two very different outcomes for
each, and used this to construct the ‘axes’: the overall framework for
the scenarios that defines the key differences between the scenarios.

Axis 1: what kind of energy mix will be dominant?

Fossil fuels dominant: The world is still running on fossil fuels.
Although there are significant constraints in supply, a mix of mitigating
factors – including efficiency gains, clean-up mechanisms, and
supply augmentation through different sources such as shale gas
or tar sands – help maintain fossil fuel dominance.

Alternative energy dominant: Alternative energy sources have Top Bottom
been scaled up and are much more affordable. Conventional oil down up
supply has peaked. Simultaneously, a mix of cost and technology
breakthroughs in alternative energy generation spurs innovation
that changes the energy mix.

Axis 2: what kind of global governance framework
will we have?

Top down: Global governance frameworks are strong and well
coordinated. A convergence of opinion on key issues such as
climate change has led to the develop-ment of stronger institutions
and binding frameworks, and a more collaborative world order. renew-abad communi-city
Bottom up: Decentralised governance solutions are preferred
to global-level action. Trade relations are more regionalised, and
innovation happens in local power hubs. The world is focused on
self-sufficiency, resilience and localised solutions.

Alternative energy dominant

Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > four scenarios for urban mobility in 2040 page 19

scenario 1
planned-opolis
In a world of fossil fuels and expensive energy,
the only solution is tightly planned and controlled
urban transport.

2018 2023 2027
Most new coal and gas power stations have A high profile nuclear storage shelter leak Plans for new floating cities approved
CCS, with funds supporting this technology due to a rushed project further delays in Bangladesh and the Netherlands.
in developing countries. nuclear large scale generation.

timeline
2015 2020 2025 2035
A global climate deal is reached. Globetech, a major multinational company, City Corp takes over the management Global Food Council gets new
A framework of global cuts for 50% bans flying for business meetings and of Laos after a governance failure. powers to control farming.
(to 1990 levels) by 2050 is agreed, sees share prices rise sharply in the
with interim targets. following years.

Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > planned-opolis page 20

factors shaping mobility
Energy supply Resource use The economy Climate change responses

Centralised grids rely on gas-fired Strict planning and rationing ensure A strong, regulated economy Cities are replanned as extreme
power stations and carbon capture resources are used as efficiently invests in technology and measures are taken to decarbonise
and storage. as possible. infrastructure. the world.

A high carbon price makes energy very There is strong reliance on technological The economy in 2040 is quite strong, and The world relies on geo-engineering. ‘Carbon
expensive, but a lack of viable alternatives solutions and centralised planning to global trade continues to grow, although it scrubbers’ that take CO 2 directly out of
means fossil fuels – in particular shale gas overcome resource shortages. Water is is tightly regulated and sky-high oil prices the air are a common sight on city streets.
and methane hydrates – still dominate. commonly rationed. To maximise efficiency restrict the sort of goods that can be Many cities with high food risk have been
Investment has been focused on reducing the ‘Global Food Council’ dictates what traded. Import tariffs and subsidies have deliberately downsized and populations
energy demand and increasing efficiency. crops can be grown where in the world. been reduced. The US, China and Russia moved to new cities designed from scratch.
Nuclear energy has not scaled as expected, Consumption of energy-intensive meat dominate – the latter due to its land, oil, Floating city technologies pioneered by the
held back by technical delays, escalating is restricted. Tight monitoring of raw coal and forest resources. Spending on Dutch have spread to other rich city areas
costs and a shortage of skills. Very materials such as metals, wood or paper, technology and R&D, especially on energy such as Hong Kong. Cities are re-engineered
efficient carbon capture and storage (CCS) ensures that resources are reused efficiency measures, is very high. Growth for natural cooling – tree-planting, green
technology is necessary to keep carbon and recycled. Biotechnology and has allowed significant investment in new roofs and natural ventilation are common.
emissions down. nanotechnology have helped engineers infrastructure, including large urban projects.
and scientists develop new materials Governance
with exceptional physical properties.
One-size-fits-all governance is
effective but reduces freedoms.

Global governance is well-coordinated and
effective. There are agreements on climate
change, displaced people and global
agriculture. Global agreements are quickly
implemented at a national level. Technology
plays a significant role in supporting
governance. Cities are often run by
specialist, city-governing companies. These
companies bid for very lucrative long-term
contracts and may run dozens of major cities
worldwide. This means that effective policies
developed in one city can quickly spread
around the world, but it also means that very
different cities tend to be run in the same
way, despite local differences. This leads to
complaints about loss of national sovereignty
and individual freedoms.


continued…
Social trends Human values The business landscape The role of technology

A fairer but less A hard-working but Big business is everywhere, A hi-tech world of integrated
individualistic society. high-trust world. and even governs some cities. systems and virtualisation.

Inequality between countries has decreased People rely on new technology to solve Big business is thriving in the globalised Technology penetrates every aspect of life.
as the global economy has rebalanced. problems. They are also, in general, very economy, operating global brands, with The natural environment is continuously
Inequality within countries has also accepting of government or business localised distribution and supply chains monitored. Many people, especially the
decreased, though in most societies there intervention in their lives, and look to large due to the high price of oil. Business plays young, live much of their lives through
is still a persistent underclass and elite. institutions to provide security and stability a major role in government and in people’s avatars – online personas – working and
Individual freedoms have been eroded. in an unpredictable world. There is a strong lives. For example, City Corp is a global forming relationships, learning, seeking
Societies tend to be less diverse than in feeling of international solidarity. ﬁrm that specialises in governing cities advice and spending leisure time. This
the past. Civil society is less vibrant and (transport, energy, healthcare and so on) means there is less need to travel. Smart
there is less protest and political violence. The car is no longer seen as a status symbol as efﬁciently as possible. It uses computer technology is everywhere and helps to
by many. Right across the world, people models to design integrated systems that integrate diverse systems, such as energy,
are very willing to participate in coordinated can be adjusted and applied to any large food and waste. Most vehicles communicate
mass transit systems. The 9-to-5 no longer city in the world. More and more services with each other, can drive themselves,
exists since we are always ‘logged on’, are delivered virtually. and use augmented reality technology.
although we also work more. In some
megacities, alienation and depression is
a big issue due to much ‘virtualisation’,
work fatigue, and the fragmentation of
traditional social units. Special interest
groups are popular among older people,
calling for a renaissance of low-tech,
face-to-face connectivity in cities.


urban form mobility
Huge urban regions are transformed Demand for mobility is down, car
by system-planning, virtualisation ownership has reduced and transport
and a generational divide. systems are highly integrated.

Megacity regions in some parts of the world Transport in most cities is highly regulated.
house more than a hundred million people. Some cities have become completely
Cities are tightly regulated and carefully car-free, others only allow electric cars
planned. Many new cities have been created and the majority have strict standards on
and slum-dwellers forcibly resettled. New fuel economy for any internal combustion
suburbs have often been designed around engine or hybrid vehicles. Car parks have
the electric bike, not the car, with narrow disappeared from many urban areas,
streets that blend walking space with bike replaced by houses or urban farms.
space. Cities are more formalised places Commuters apply for a 15-minute travel slot
than they used to be. Informal activity, such if they need to travel to work.
as unplanned building or unlicensed markets,
is not tolerated. People are told when to travel and by
what mode. Small vehicles are likely to be
City form is heavily influenced by electric, using energy from centralised grids,
virtualisation, with a greater blending of while larger vehicles such as coaches and
social classes and more people living urban trucks are more likely to use liquid fuel. Car
lifestyles far away from the city. People can ownership is low, though the rich are still
live in one city but be ‘resident’ in another driving cars and paying the high price.
location of their choice, some of which only Transport systems have evolved to be highly
exist in the virtual world, such as ‘London 2’. integrated across the different modes, Transport is treated by city governments as
Cities are governed increasingly as complex including walking and cycling, inter-city travel one part of a functioning urban system that
systems (integrating energy, transport, water, and consequently also transport systems in includes energy systems, water, waste, food,
waste and so on), to maximise efficient use nearby cities. Any delays or breakdowns can distribution and so on. City governments
of resources. Activity – movement of traffic disrupt transport over huge areas. People look for solutions that can integrate the
and people in particular – is continually have ‘calorie cards’ that can be topped up different subsystems most efficiently, for
tracked. and spent on anything, including different example combining public transport with
modes of transport, with a high-energy mode freight transport or energy storage.
There is a significant generational gap using more calories than a low-energy mode.
between younger and older people, as the The high prices of oil and carbon mean
young adapt more quickly to living their lives Smart cars ensure that driving behaviour is that all transport modes are expensive,
in virtual spaces. The over-60s dominate smooth and safe and keeps traffic moving except for walking and cycling. Along
the physical city, while younger people as much as possible. In the most advanced with the tight regulation of transport and
dominate the virtual city. This means that the cities, mass transit and individual transit advances in ICT this means that many
whole urban physical environment, including become blurred: an individual can drive a car people, particularly younger people, live
to a mass transit route and join a computer- their lives online – working, shopping,
controlled convoy, effectively becoming a consuming and socialising. As a result,
part of the mass transit and surrendering personal mobility is reduced but freight
control of the vehicle, then leave the convoy mobility (delivering products that were
again when convenient. ordered online) has increased.


scenario 2
sprawl-ville
The city is dominated by fossil fuel-powered cars.
The elite still gets around, but most urban dwellers
face poor transport infrastructure.

2017 2027 2035
Oil prices spike to US $200. Wealth gap reaches historic high. Beijing and Singapore ban non-electric
cars in city centres.

timeline
2015 2020 2031 2036–38
Global climate change deal fails. Three month trafﬁc jam in India Global oil supplies peak. Global food production falls under the
ends in tradegy. combined pressures of a biofuels rush.
A 2 year global level famine occurs.

Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > sprawlville page 24

Energy supply Resource use Climate change responses Governance

Oil production peaked around 2030 Resource shortages – and the A focus on adaptation and protecting A global shift towards more
but transport still uses fossil fuel ensuing scramble – have a direct assets in the short term. authoritarian power.
– particularly gas – and focuses impact on human development.
on efficiency. Climate impacts are occurring roughly in Short-termism is the rule. There is little
The market is only now starting to realise line with predictions, but the elites (nations international collaboration on energy or
Electricity grids rely on fossil fuels – primarily that oil supply has peaked. Biofuel crops or groups) prefer to protect themselves climate concerns. Emissions reduction
coal and natural gas – for over half of their are big business, resulting in uncontrolled rather than taking global action. Adaptation targets exist in developed countries but are
energy, with nuclear and renewable energy encroachment on both forest and croplands. measures tend to be local and reactive, for increasingly circumvented. Nation-states
providing the rest. With demand down As well as causing high food prices, this has example building new sea walls after flooding are becoming more authoritarian in the
due to energy efficiency and a shrinking led to serious deforestation, in turn affecting or abandoning dust-bowl agricultural regions. face of fuel and food shocks, spawning a
economy, supply is generally more reliable ecosystems and livelihoods of poor people. Land and assets are exploited for short-term number of violent changes of government.
than it has been in recent decades. Rapid Add in the fact that water is in short supply, profits and then abandoned when exhausted. The European Union is intact but has not
advances in engine efficiency (forced by and it is not surprising that there has been a This tendency is amplified by the ability of expanded further. Cities are governed by
regulation in developed countries) mean significant increase in deaths from famine in the rich to shield themselves from climate and for elites, but this includes avoiding
that most vehicles still use oil-based fuels, the last few decades. Home-grown food is change impacts inside air-conditioned unrest and keeping the wheels of business
despite the fact that in 2040 there are so booming across the world, in cities as well domes, malls and vehicles. Corporate action turning, so basic transport infrastructure is
many more cars in the world than in 2010. as rural areas and transport of water by road is significant, trying to protect supply chains maintained. Corruption has increased, with
Fuel comes from unconventional sources and rail across vast distances to megacities and markets. A new sector of the economy the potential for profiteering from energy and
such as tar sands and gas-to-liquids, but (for example from Cambodia to south China) has emerged whose business is global food issues.
an increasing proportion comes from is commonplace. climate change response strategy.
biofuels. Vehicle use is expensive and
excludes poorer people from using their The economy
cars regularly. Growth in electric vehicles
has been limited due to high costs of Global stagnation, protectionism
developing the necessary new infrastructure. and shrinking supply chains.

After a period of moderate growth up to the
early 2030s, the global economy, dominated
by China and the US, is now flat at best,
with some major economies including China
teetering on the edge of recession. The main
cause of this is the decline in oil supplies and
price shocks, but other resource constraints
have taken their toll. The economy is rapidly
becoming more protectionist, with bilateral
agreements and export bans proliferating.
The transport supply chain is still global but
reduced, with air travel shrunk by high fuel
prices, and increased shipping costs driving
shorter supply chains.


continued…
Social structures Human values The business landscape The role of technology

A less equal world, where the informal Polarisation of ideology and a Business is powerful – with an Efficiency gains but few
economy prospers. loss of faith in consumerism. expanded role in society as a result major breakthroughs.
of less public service provision –
This is an oligarch’s and black marketeer’s The economic difficulties of the past decade but it is also less accountable. Technological developments have focused
world. Global middle class prosperity in the have contributed to two notable trends. First on efficiency gains. This is most notable with
2020s proved a false dawn and inequality is the polarisation of political attitudes, with Business plays a central role in this the internal combustion engine, but can
is up. Democratic institutions are on the some sectors of society calling for predatory world, stepping in when government or also be seen with solar energy and a host
back foot and power goes to those who energy policies or draconian austerity communities fail, or even usurping power. of others. For a long time there have been
grab resources and political influence. Oil measures to allow a return to business as Most of the largest and most powerful no major breakthrough technologies that
companies retain their influence, much usual, while others seize on the new crisis as businesses in the world are privately owned. have changed the world in the way the
as bankers did after the financial crisis of a chance to reform capitalism and reverse This makes them less accountable, which internet did. Technology development tends
the 2010s, with the industry dominating globalisation. The polarisation is particularly they often counter with major philanthropy to be driven most by corporate R&D and the
important cities such as Washington DC. critical in the USA, where some states and civic investment programmes. There public, especially those with few resources,
The informal economy flourishes in the threaten secession. Revolutionary Marxism are huge opportunities for entrepreneurs. struggle to access much of it.
face of high unemployment, taxes and has returned as a major political force. Expanding areas of business include: coal,
import costs, with local and home-grown The second trend is a resurgence in ethnic coal-to-liquids and gas-to-liquids, biofuels,
produce and even organic waste (as a tension and a return to religion and traditional urban gardening, warehousing (as just-in-
biofuels feedstock) traded both on the values as people lose faith in consumerism. time is rolled back), domestic service,
streets and the internet. grid renewables, nuclear, military, security,
and the scrapping or modifying of vehicles.
On the other hand, airlines, international
tourism, hotels, cars and luxury goods
(except for top-end billionaire yachts, which
remain popular with the “biofuel barons”)
are all in decline.


urban form mobility
Low density sprawl and fragmented Cities are locked into car-use though
suburbs are the norm. congestion is rife, leading to a spate
of innovative solutions.
The car-dominant urban model persists,
resulting in the growth of huge, low-density Car ownership has grown hugely, especially
suburbs, freeways to connect them and in middle-income countries such as India
commuter jams. In the periphery of the city and China. Local politicians have responded
there are numerous ‘failed’ developments, to the rise of new middle class car owners
built too far from public transport and with road-building trophy projects. However,
therefore unaffordable to urban commuters the latent demand before 2030 was such
now that oil prices are high. Since 2030, the that new roads became congested
value of many of these new developments immediately, and many of the new vehicles
has crashed, with too many residents are only used sporadically. Vehicles are
unemployed or unable to afford the car designed for occasional use, and build in
commute to their jobs. They either become alternative functions while they are stationary,
ghetto areas for poorer people, and informal such as storage or energy generation.
paratransit services spring up to service Some are designed to attach to buildings
long commutes for those who were still and act as extra living or storage space.
employed, or are reborn as local
communities try to provide their own Rush hours spread as people move their
services. Many large cities have gone back commute to escape the congestion. A
to being fractured towns with either derelict new phenomenon is the nomad
or farm areas in between. For example, businessman, who may spend much of
Detroit no longer exists, replaced by five the day working online in a secure vehicle The developed world has been at car and toll roads. Many cities have built private
smaller cities. There is a lot of decaying, while his driver takes him slowly through saturation since the early 2010s. Travel has member-only roads. In an economically
underused car infrastructure being the jams to meetings. Vehicles providing increased modestly but only where there constrained world, new infrastructure
scavenged and repurposed. Successful many of the services an office might is room, which means via cycling, walking projects are rare, and those that do exist
‘post-oil’ cities such as Amsterdam and provide, such as IT help, refreshments, and public transport expansion, all of which find new ways of full price recovery.
Singapore are doing very well. toilets and meeting facilities, can be found saw significantly increased investment in
using location software. Some vehicles the 2010–30 period. Traffic growth has
are fitted with solar roofs to drive systems been constrained as area-congestion and
when stationary, though the impact other road charging schemes have spread,
of smog on the performance of these as have car clubs and bike hire. Electric
products can be severe. vehicles are a common sight in city centres
but have not hit the mainstream. Some
Car parks have proliferated. Delhi boasts cities, for example Shanghai, Beijing and
the highest sky-park in the world, at Singapore, have mandated them in the
45 storeys, serviced by car-lifts. Other city centres, mainly to control air quality.
responses to congestion, from helicopters
to straddling buses to underground freight With power often concentrated with elites,
solutions, are common. schemes to free up the roads – and even
elevated walkways – for the wealthy are
widespread, particularly congestion charging


2015 2022 2032
Binding global climate change pact Car use and GDP growth US $1 billion Beijing Energy
signed. Strict carbon quotas and are ofﬁcially decoupled. Innovation Contest leads to
US $1 trillion mitigation fund. hydrogen cells breakthrough.

timeline
2013 2018 2025 2037
A second global recessionary cycle occurs, ‘C8’ powerful world cities hold ﬁrst The EU bans fossil fuel powered automobiles, China, Mexico and Turkey form resource
becuase of a resources crunch, and summit and agree to form cyber armies. with a 5 year phase out plan. coalition to secure global lithium supplies.
hardhitting natural disasters impacting
key economic hubs.

scenario 3
renew-abad
The world has turned to alternative energy and
high-tech, clean, well-planned transport helps
everyone get around.

Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > renew-abad page 28


A rapid transition to renewable Resource use is strictly regulated Economic power has shifted. An early global deal on climate
energy brings the world to the in a world short of food and land. change means crisis can be averted.
edge of a new energy paradigm. The cost of decarbonisation has caused
The shift to alternative energy in the 2030s global disruption, and disposable incomes Climate action emphasises mitigation – the
A high carbon price has pushed fossil fuel caused resource grabs and land-use shifts, are lower than in 2010. The global balance community of states believes that the worst
prices up and stimulates investment in affecting food production as a result. Food is of power has shifted radically. China’s early climate impacts can still be averted. The price
renewables, including concentrated solar particularly scarce in Central Asia and Sub- push on clean-tech brought huge growth of carbon is very high, and there are personal
power, wind and wave. Because of the sharp Saharan Africa. Agrichemical companies dividends. India is also strong, particularly carbon quotas in place in many countries.
transition to low carbon solutions, energy are tightly regulated in these regions and in terms of the hydrogen economy and
is still relatively expensive. Innovations focus on biotech innovation to build yield and IT. Brazil and Mexico compete over the A climate change adaptation fund for low-
in advanced thin film solar cells make climate resilience. leadership of a powerful Latin American bloc. income countries has existed for decades.
decentralised generation easier, and some US and Russian influence is waning. Some Some countries used it to pursue aggressive
countries set micro-generation targets for Many governments impose biodiversity European states with shrinking populations low-carbon growth instead, sparking tension
households in an effort to reduce costs. restrictions such as natural resource quotas, have developed steady-state economies. and resentment from the West. But others
offset obligations, and restrictions on the are forced to be more reactive, including
Nuclear energy and biofuels are use of virgin resources. In some countries, Nimble emerging players in Asia, Latin parts of South and Central Asia as well as
uncompetitive. The next wave of energy for example, the lack of bees now means America and Africa leapfrog to low-carbon Sub-Saharan Africa, where low lying cities
innovation is happening with ubiquitous that vehicles driving between cities are fitted solutions. This includes hydrogen generation, and drought prone regions have to invest
generation through vibration-based with technology to artificially pollinate the which gives these economies an edge when massively in sea barriers, resilient crops
technology and mainstreaming of hydrogen fields surrounding highways. Micro-food it comes to emerging mobility technology, and cooling urban green top.
fuel cell technology. Thanks to breakthroughs production in urban areas is flourishing and is beginning to disadvantage those who
in solar-powered electrolysis, several regions as people utilise locally abundant food made early investments in electrification.
in North Africa and Asia have transitioned sources to address resource needs.
entirely to a hydrogen economy.

Personal mobility continues to be accessible,
but several countries have recently had
electricity outages as a result of electric
cars overloading the grid.


continued…
Governance Social structures The business landscape The role of technology

Strict governance holds sway in The rich-poor gap has narrowed but Business provides low-impact Innovation is driven and regulated by
nation-states and city-states alike. a generational gap has opened up. services in collaboration with the public sector, with an important
governments. breakthrough in battery technology.
Governance systems are unified and strong. This is a world of greater social order and
Benign autocracies in a number of emerging more equity within societies. Governments The low carbon economy has created losers Technological progress has been rapid and
markets have often been more successful redistribute wealth. People seek to re- such as big oil companies – and winners, dominated by the public sector. Networking
than traditional Western democracies. identify with their local communities, despite such as renewable energy firms. Businesses technology has been a great enabler
The global balance of power is concentrated strong global governance and ubiquitous operating in cities are forced by law to invest of development, but has also allowed
between China and a handful of key allies, web connectivity. Pockets of poverty and in infrastructure and services. Those able to governments to monitor citizens’ movements
including Mexico, Turkey and some simmering resentment are growing in partner with governments in delivering low- and behaviour patterns more closely.
city states. regions left behind in the low-carbon race. carbon, resource efficient infrastructure are
The ageing populations of China and Latin best placed. Technology investment is channelled towards
Governments impose stricter rules, and use America cause intergenerational strife. achieving national goals and improving
increasingly sophisticated technology for New industry clusters have emerged civic life. Countries invest in smart-grid
monitoring and enforcement. They often Human values to cater to the sustainable consumer’s systems that optimise energy use. There
mandate where you live within the city, how increasing demand for integrated, low- have been breakthroughs in battery
you travel, and how much energy you use. People value simplicity carbon access to goods, services and technology allowing electric vehicles to
Chips embedded in everyday objects ensure and authenticity. information. Former food retailers have scale up, with Asia as the key centre of
compliance. Crime rates have dropped partnered with construction companies and innovation. Mobility efficiency is a priority,
and traffic regulation has improved, but Lifestyles have become more sustainable designers to provide integrated domestic and all modes of transport are equipped
civil society organisations argue that the and people define themselves through asset management, delivering living spaces with data storing and sharing capabilities.
democratic process is dead. low-carbon, green identities. Consumption bundled with nutrition and water systems.
is oriented towards ‘experience’ services, Transport providers vie to offer the best
City-states again hold sway over wider slower living and simplicity, which is just ‘experience’ service, such as providing the
territories, as they did in medieval and as well because there is less disposable best food on the daily train or bus commute,
early modern Europe. The ‘C8’ powerful income to spend on acquiring goods. the best ICT solutions for virtual working,
conurbations – Cairo, Lagos, Los Angeles, and superior onboard entertainment.
Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai and ‘Quality of life’ means superior connectivity
Tokyo – hold an annual summit, and have via integrated smart personal devices,
developed their own defence forces. access to nature, and access to efficient,
low-carbon lifestyle enablers, such as
integrated work-travel-entertainment
services.

The desire to drive has diminished and
previous generations’ obsession with the
motor car seems strange and old-fashioned.


urban form mobility
Cities are consolidating and A shift to mass transit reduces
moving towards polycentric congestion while alternative
models. fuels reduce the impact of travel.

The age of urban sprawl is over. Cities There has been a sharp change in the
are redensifying and setting growth transport fuel mix: electric, hybrid and
boundaries in an effort to create more – increasingly – hydrogen motors dominate.
efﬁcient, polycentric forms. Former suburbs Filling stations have been converted into
have emerged as new cities, smaller ‘energy stations’, integrated service stops
in size but well-connected to megacities that offer a multiplicity of fuels.
through ultra high-speed rail links.
Megacities continue to be important Personal vehicles are attainable, but no
engines of growth and in the new city longer as desirable. Car ownership is
states this is matched by political power. stigmatised in many places – much like
smoking was in the 2000s. Personal
Neighbourhood-centric planning is the vehicles are ultra-small, stackable electric
norm and people tend to live, play and work pods and solar scooters that can be
in the same locality. Neighbourhoods are programmed to drive themselves via an
organised around key mobility and energy onboard journey planner, leaving the driver
nodes. These provide integrated services, to have a meal or chat with friends. They location-based applications that convey
from in-house energy generation to vehicle are frequently interchanged with public tailored information to users.
charging points, to community centres and transport modes as well as cycling and
smart working hubs. walking, because urban centres are often All this, combined with the proliferation of
non-motorised. local food production and sophisticated
There are strict targets around waste underground freight pipelines, means
disposal and energy generation in buildings People feel civic pride in using effective congestion is an issue of the past in
– all monitored by smart meters. In shrinking, public transport systems. In order to most cities. The daily commute is tightly
post-industrial cities, unused inner-city land maintain a degree of personal space, controlled by government. There are often
is converted into intensive farmland. Inner- personal rapid transit (PRT) is a popular set times when you can commute to work
city slums have become ‘urbanised’ with mode of choice: people can work or surf and back; and some cities even mandate
affordable eco-housing and greater access the net while travelling in individual a residence radius within a certain distance
to transport and other infrastructure. rail pods. The less privileged pile on from work, impose commuter taxes, or
hydrogen-powered buses, although with a subsidise low carbon mobility patterns
In megacities where overcrowding has powerful range, dedicated corridors, and (e.g. online shopping, cycling, non-motorised
become an issue, governments are sophisticated ICT services, these are a far delivery services).
incentivising large-scale population cry from the buses their parents used.
shifts to second- and third-tier cities, Key urban zones are now connected
which are experiencing rapid social and Almost every aspect of transport is guided by ultra high-speed trains, so mobility
economic growth. by e-technology (e.g. sensing technologies between regions remains high despite
and interactive services deployed to enable the fact that ﬂying is no longer available
information access, manage demand, etc.). to the masses. Chinese railway systems
Daily commutes are optimised by always encircle the globe, taking people vast
knowing what – and who – is around, through distances on 300mph trains.


2020 2025 2031
The UN is disbanded, and the G20 is An escape of bio engineered The ﬁrst hands free neuro-sensing
put on hold as people vote for the next algae carpets the mediterranean, scooters go on sale.
president via facebook. devastating marine life and tourism.

timeline
2015 2022 2027 2035
Global climate change deal fails. South Korea ranks highest Bangladesh and Netherlands hit by Alternatives now mainstream: renewables
in terms of GDP per capita. worst ever ﬂoods. New international outproduce fossil fuels.
alliance of ‘L20’ low-lying countries
to deal with threats.

scenario 4
communi-city
The world has turned to alternative energy, and
transport is highly personalised, with a huge variety
of transport modes competing for road space.

Return to contents 2. what’s your destination? > communi-city page 32


Local renewable energy generation Cities have transformed to produce Grassroots business and new People and communities adapt to
and decentralised grids have more of their own food and deal technology compensate for climate change and reduce carbon
superceded coal, gas and oil. locally with waste and water. protectionist trade and slow despite weak global policy.
global growth.
Fossil fuel use is a thing of the past. Food is expensive and demand for land There is no global climate change deal but,
Oil supplies have peaked and coal sits is high. Large, privately owned and poorly The world is a more fragmented place. spurred on by climate disasters, individual
in the ground un-mined because the regulated plankton and algae farms The lack of a global framework for climate governments and companies proactively
alternatives are so much cheaper and work dot coastlines in populated zones, all change has led to protectionism, smaller put money into technological development
better. The full spectrum of renewables bioengineered. Community-organised markets and lower overall growth. On the without waiting for a cap-and-trade system.
is being deployed at a local scale: solar, vertical and small-scale horticulture has other hand, energy is more accessible, As a result, low carbon solutions have come
wind, wave and biomass, depending on flourished in cities, with balconies, roofs and cheaper and cleaner. Rapid, bottom-up on stream quickly and overall emissions
local circumstances. Small-scale, local, the sides of buildings given over to growing technology development has boosted are quite low. In this do-it-yourself world,
decentralised grids proliferate and many food. Cities look and feel very different as productivity. Winner countries are those with people are adapting to climate change
businesses and individuals around the world a result, though they are still reliant on their large internal markets to drive growth, big themselves, leading to some interesting new
have gone completely off-grid. Micro-nuclear hinterland and imports to feed themselves. cities and a highly educated knowledge- ideas. Floating farms and flood-resistant
has proliferated too, with thousands of small Urban aquaculture, using various bio- based workforce. Brain enhancement construction are now routine technologies
reactors dotted across the world. These have engineered species, helps dispose of waste breakthroughs in Korea have pushed that for resisting climate shocks. The rich world
passive cooling systems, which continue to and provide food. Cheap energy means cities country to the top of the economic league, is better able to afford these technologies
work even if power goes down, and operate can afford desalination. Technologies for but others are now copying and catching up. for low-carbon adaptation. When poor
for up to 30 years without refuelling. Nuclear water capture and saving are booming. Most countries experience natural disasters, there
proliferation has now eclipsed climate houses and apartment blocks have their own is no global relief effort. This has lead to an
change as the number one security worry. harvesting, recycling and purification plants. increase in violent outbursts against what is
perceived to be the rich world’s ‘climate debt’
and monopoly on life-saving technology.


continued…
Governance Social structures The business landscape The role of technology

Central coordination is weak A more unequal world, but full Business is more decentralised and Rapid breakthroughs make
and more power resides at the of opportunity. global businesses are less common. technology an exciting area of
community level using computer- change, and many people are
based collaborative tools. Inequality within and between societies The model for the economy and commerce involved through grassroots
is on the rise, and the process of reverse is the internet: distributed, and bottom up; innovation and research.
Multilateralism has disintegrated, because globalisation has led to distinct winners and with not too much power held in one place.
Global agreements and governance grew losers. There are few mechanisms for wealth The physical economy – primary, secondary Innovation has flourished all over the globe.
increasingly complex, expensive and redistribution, though social mobility is high and tertiary – is very localised. Manufacturing Bottom-up, multiple approaches have
unworkable. Politicians failed to realise that and entrepreneurialism is strong. If you’ve too is very local, often using nanotech, led to rapid breakthroughs, and not just
international machinery could only go so got a good idea you can build a successful and made viable by very cheap renewable in low-carbon technology. Bio and nano
far without cultural integration. Eventually, business locally, but it is difficult to take it to energy. Goods and services have become technologies have also developed rapidly.
much of it fell apart to be replaced by a scale. more regionalised and culturally specific. Some of the biggest breakthroughs are
network of bilateral, regional and peer-to- Products are made for local markets and, happening where technologies – such
peer alliances. Some nations remain strong, Human values because of a lack of international standards as bionics and ICT or bio and nanotech
but many have weakened or fragmented, are difficult to trade internationally. One area – converge. Neuro-sensing control via brain
replaced by regional and local governance. People are less consumerist and where the world is still relatively globalised is activity is being widely used in information
People are less willing to be told what to do. status-driven and look more to in information technology. It is a networked technology and more recently in transport.
Online crowd-sourcing is common in city religion and community. world, with lots of virtualisation. However, This R&D is no longer the preserve of major
development and in deciding what public even here a series of catastrophic viruses companies and governments: open source
services should be provided. Many cities Religious and cultural norms have become have focused people on IT security rather ICT and local manufacturing technologies
adopt a collaborative model of governance more entrenched in many places. Elsewhere, than speed of interaction, and increasing mean that backstreet labs are a major source
with local participatory budgets. This has people value the local and blend the distrust between nations means that some of innovation.
worked very well in many areas, but in others traditional with ultra-modern. In the US, thirty governments have blocked access to
it has been hijacked and corrupted. for example, anti-consumerist evangelical the global internet.
Christianity holds sway. With Islam on the
rise in Africa and Asia, as well as vocal
nationalism in countries like China, many
consumers have turned to local trends
inspired by religious and cultural ideals,
and reject ‘Western’ style. It is a more
individualist world, with people wanting to
do things on their terms. Sometimes that
means collaborating with others through
communities and sometimes it means going
it alone.


urban form mobility
The city has become less formalised Diverse modes of personalised
and more diverse and dynamic, with transport compete for space,
individuals and communities taking coordinating via automated
control over planning. technology.

Cities have greater significance and economic Personal – and personalised – mobility is
clout than ever before. Non-urban regions important. Modes of transport proliferate,
have to be either part of their hinterlands from high-tech power-assisted bicycles
and spheres of influence or they suffer. The to personal rapid transit pods to the very
informal settlements that encircle major popular solar-scooter (an electric moped
cities have had a big influence on how they with a wrap-around roof that both generates
function. They have been the source of much electricity and shades the rider). Impact
innovation and creative energy. Cheap ICT, prevention software and neuro-sensing
open source programmes and do-it-yourself technologies keep the whole system
manufacturing such as 3-D printing have moving and avoid too many collisions.
allowed ‘garage innovators’ to flourish. And Customisation is ubiquitous. Some people
so the trend of informal settlements gradually build their own vehicles and customise
gentrifying and coming to resemble the them using locally designed and produced
formal city has gone into reverse. The whole kits, open-source designs and scrap
city has become more informal, with crop- materials. In some cases this can lead to
growing, temporary and creative use of pollution problems and some vehicles look
space, self-planned settlements and open- very unsafe.
source enabled mobility systems, and
multiple road users in multiple vehicle types, Public transport systems persist but in
all to be found right across the urban area. general have suffered through lack of
investment. Some have fallen into disrepair,
The sheer wealth of detailed information even in wealthy cities. Those that remain
from networked tracking and monitoring are often overcrowded and unreliable.
devices has caused a re-evaluation of some
basic design assumptions. For example, The wealthy have taken to the skies in
some ‘safety features’ on streets have been fan-driven personal flight vehicles such as
replaced by ‘hazards’ to increase safety by the Heli-Hopper, Fly-lite and Jetson. One households and communities, are the new
forcing people to pay attention. technology that is popping up everywhere bestseller and are widely used to fuel family
is the biofuel-powered mini bus, which or community-owned vehicles.
Much of urban design has shifted to a is hugely adaptable in different urban
collaborative model with local participatory environments, and can be powered by With transport infrastructure at capacity,
budgets. Where this works, everything is very food waste as well as locally-grown crops. many people choose to work, learn and
tailored to the desires of the participants, for play in their local communities or use tele-
example with car-free family areas, or Segway With production having peaked, and presencing to access work, services and
lanes for the elderly. demand falling away rapidly, oil has been leisure. The poorer sections of urban society
supplanted by third-generation, nano and get around much as they have for decades
biotech enhanced biofuels, as well as cheap – on foot and by bike, though many now
electricity. ‘Home-brew’ biofuel kits, for build their own vehicles.


3. what can
you do?

solutions for sustainable
urban mobility
The future may seem difﬁcult to predict, but there are
key ways in which you can begin to respond to ensure
you are taking the path you want. There are already
many urban mobility innovations, as the examples
below demonstrate. These innovations might not be
mainstream at the moment, but they are all real world
examples – some are concepts, others are at pilot
stage, and yet others fully implemented. We believe
they illustrate the ways in which city governments,
urban planners, transport providers and all other key
actors will have to respond in order to transition to
sustainable mobility systems.
We encourage you to think about the way that your
region, city or organisation can translate these six
key responses into your own work, and we hope that
the real-life examples will inspire you.

Fukuoka Prefectural International Hall, © Emilio Ambasz & Associates

Return to contents 3. what can you do? > solutions for sustainable urban mobility page 37

1. integrate,
integrate, integrate
Transport, urban planning, business, public services,
energy and food supply can no longer be considered
in isolation. We need to create truly integrated systems
where people have choice, ﬂexibility and seamless
connectivity. When people travel, they should be able
to connect much more smoothly and quickly between
different modes of transport. Increasingly, there
will also be a need to supplement this physical
connectivity with online connectivity: the ability to
check information before, and during, travel will
allow people to optimise their journeys, and perhaps
even substitute a degree of physical movement with
virtual access to lifestyle needs.

1.1 MIT CityCar System

A stackable, electric two-seater car designed
to be used as part of a mobility on-demand
system – similar to a bike-hire scheme
such as Vélib, where stacks of vehicles are
available for instant short-term hire at key
transport hubs such as train stations and
multiple other points around the city. Three
or four CityCars can ﬁt in a standard parking
space. Future iterations could be integrated
with the urban energy supply system – stacks
of parked cars act as batteries that could
‘smooth’ electricity demand in a city with MIT CityCar System, © William Lark, Jr. – Smart Cities, MIT
lots of microgeneration such as solar roofs
or small-scale wind turbines.
http://cities.media.mit.edu/ (Go to Mobility
section, then select CityCar).


Straddling Bus, © Press Association London Garden, © www.martenwallgren.com Shweeb pedal-powered monorail,
© Shweeb

1.2 Straddling Bus 1.3 London Garden 1.4 Shweeb pedal-powered monorail

An electric Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system An award-winning concept for car-free Shweeb uses pedal-powered, highly
without the need for additional road space. mobility in central London that integrates aerodynamic capsules that reduce drag and
The bus has two levels, the lower of which bicycle, scooter and bus modes. A specially require less energy to propel at 20km/h than
is open and straddles the road, acting designed semi-electric bicycle is available for you need to walk at 5km/h. The capsules
like a tunnel that cars can drive through. hire and can be ridden as either a bicycle or travel along guiderails 6m above the ground
Passengers board the upper deck to a an electric scooter. When ridden in bicycle that can be suspended above existing roads
maximium capacity of 300. The bus can mode it generates and stores energy for the and walkways. A successful system would
either run on rails either side of the car lane, scooter mode. It can also be folded up and potentially have positive effects on a city’s
or it can follow white lines using an auto- used as a bus seat – in this case the energy health system by increasing general activity
pilot system. The bus is powered by relay you generated and stored in your bike is levels. There is also scope for some energy
charging and also charges at its stops. The credited to you and used as a currency to generation. Shweeb has just received US
ﬁrst system is due to be built in Beijing in subsidise the cost of your journey. When not $1million in funding from Google’s Project
2011. http://www.chinahush.com/2010/07/31/ in use the bikes are stored on overhead racks 10100 to build its ﬁrst transit system for public
straddling-bus-a-cheaper-greener-and- at bus stops where they generate further use. http://shweeb.com/
faster-alternative-to-commute/ energy via solar cells in their solid, hub less
wheels. http://martenwallgren.blogspot.
com/2009/06/winner-seymourpowell-award-
for.html


2. make the poor a priority Urban cable car Ripple Effect, Naandi Container,
© courtesy of IDEO

Mobility systems must work for rich and poor alike,
to ensure no-one is shut off from goods, services
and employment opportunities. There are currently
4 billion people around the globe on low incomes. 6

Cities in particular have many low-income
communities – this trend will increase as much
of the world’s future population growth will be
occurring in Asian and African cities.
Everyone in the mobility sector will have to design
tailored mobility solutions that meet these people’s
needs.

Chop ’N Drop bike, © Worldbike

2.2 Medellin Metrocable 2.3 Naandi Container

Metrocable is an urban electric cable car The design firm IDEO collaborated with
2.1 Chop’N Drop Worldbike system in Medellin, Colombia, that was Acumen Fund, a non-profit global venture
installed as a complementary transit system fund, and the Naandi Foundation to design
Worldbike is an international network to the Metro. It links poor hillside barrios the Naandi container. The 20-liter water
of professionals in the bicycle industry, directly to the city and the metro system, vessel has smooth contours and handles
who work on creating affordable bike vastly improving access as conventional to be carried on the hip and includes an
transportation and income-generating public transport could not negotiate the optional wheel kit that allows it to be pulled
opportunities for the poor. The Chop‘N steep hillsides. It has eased the commutes on the ground. With the flat side of the vessel
Drop bike is an open-source design, which of most of the inhabitants of the barrios and down and the opening facing up users can
is shipped to small-scale manufacturing has also revitalised some of the areas that easily fill it with water. This design is more
facilities or skilled individuals in the it passes through. http://www.medellininfo. accessible for women, and encourages easy
developing world, who then construct the com/metro/metrocable.html and http:// water handling and transport.
6
WRI, The Next Four Billion: “Low-income” is defined bike locally. http://worldbike.org/ thecityfix.com/up-up-and-away-in-a-cable- http://www.rippleeffectglobal.com/naandi-
as earning less than $3,000 in local purchasing power. car/ container/


3. go beyond the car Vancouver

The current growth rates of personal vehicle ownership
are simply unsustainable in the future: there are
already 1 billion cars in the world, a ﬁgure which is
expected to grow to 2 billion within a few decades. 7

To avoid cities becoming further congested and car-
dependent, it is critical that we design now for people,
not cars.
Architects and urban planners need to create mixed-
use urban neighbourhoods with the infrastructure
to serve local communities, dense developments in
cities that prevent further sprawl, and a high degree
of accessibility and walkability. These changes to the
urban form would almost certainly alter the daily
commute for many residents, encouraging less reliance
on cars. Cities should further encourage a shift away
from cars by promoting alternative modes of transport
and creating alternatives
to car ownership like
3.1 Vancouver’s downtown travel
ﬂexible car renting. plan: integrated travel planning
and walkability

This is an example of a broad approach
to accessibility and mobility, recognising
that most journeys involve multiple modes
of transport. The system was treated as a
whole and multiple design improvements
included simple but systemically effective
actions such as: the widening of pedestrian
crossings, new cycle lanes on major roads
and the provision of cycle racks on buses, as
well as the implementation of technological
improvements such as the Sky Train (an
7 automated light mass rapid transit system).
Daniel Sperling and Deborah Gordon,
Two Billion Cars, Oxford University Press, http://www.driversofchange.com/slimcity/
New York, 2009. urban-mobility/integrated-planning.php


Masdar City, © Masdar City, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Sobi, © Socal Bicycles

3.2 The city as an organism 3.3 So Bi – Social Bicycle

A recent concept popularised by William This is an example of a system using
McDonough that is starting to influence geolocation and wireless networks for
urban design, particularly in new cities such seamless travel and access rather than
as Masdar. According to this concept, ownership. It uses ICT to enable a flexible,
cities have metabolisms analogous to lower cost and distributed version of a bike-
those of complex organisms in terms of share scheme: “SoBi will be the first public
nutrient and waste flows, and they should bike share system with the authorisation,
therefore mimic the dynamics of ecosystems tracking, and security systems attached to
if they are to be truly sustainable. Key the bicycle itself. SoBi uses GPS, mobile
principles include: total reuse of waste via communications, and a secure lock that
upcycling, recycling, composting and energy can attach to almost any bicycle and lock to
generation; maximisation of solar and wind any regular bike rack. The system does not
energy collection via passive design and require separate infrastructure and can be
microgeneration; multiplicity of landscape deployed at approximately one-third the cost
types which increase resilience and of existing systems. Administrators will be
liveability, such as mixed use developments, given powerful tools to manage demand and
walkable neighbourhoods, green roofs, inner map patterns of use. Users will enjoy door-
city parks and farms for biodiversity. to-door transportation and an interactive
http://www.mcdonough.com/writings/living_ cycling experience that can track miles
city.htm travelled, calories burned, CO2 emissions
offset, and connections to other Social
Cyclists.” http://socialbicycles.com/


4. switch on to IT networks Nissan Eporo, © Nissan

There are two key ways that IT networks need to be
used to improve mobility systems: by substituting
physical movement with ICT-based solutions, and by
better connecting and integrating transport systems.
People are becoming increasingly comfortable accessing
services, information and social networks online.
Mobility providers will need to introduce IT
connectivity throughout urban mobility systems and
develop sophisticated, user-centred online platforms
so urban dwellers can access everything they need
to maintain and improve their daily quality of life.
In addition, transport systems will need to use
technology to lessen traffic congestion and accident
risks, for example interstate highways that feature
lanes for cars and trucks
controlled by computers. 4.1 Nissan Eporo Robot Car
Cars will change too:
leading companies are Nissan has designed a collision-free, zero
carbon robot concept car. The design is
incorporating ICT into biomimetic – the Eporo travels in a group
vehicles, and over the of like-vehicles, mimicking the behavioural
next thirty years this patterns of a school of fish in avoiding
obstacles without colliding with each other.
trend is likely to become The technologies developed for Eporo are
much more mainstream. not just useful for collision avoidance but
also aim to improve the migration efficiency
of a group of vehicles and contribute to
an environmentally friendly and traffic
jam-free driving environment. http://www.
nissan-global.com/EN/NEWS/2009/_
STORY/091001-01-e.html and
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/10/
nissan-to-show-eporo-robot-cars-
collisionfree-driving-by-mimicking-fish-
behavior.html


Intellidrive, © U.S. Department Media Pole on the U-street in Gangnam, Seoul. DVE Immersion Room – 3D Room, © www.dvetelepresence.com
of Transportation Source: Inews24 (South Korea)

4.2 Intellidrive 4.3 U-City Seoul 4.4 Telepresence

Intellidrive is a US initiative to develop Seoul’s city-management is piloting a High-end telepresence systems such as
transport connectivity. It aims to enable project called Ubiquitous Seoul, or U-City the DVE Immersion Room are now good
networked wireless real-time commun- Seoul which offers real-time, location based enough for people to feel like they are in
ications between vehicles, infrastructure, services from multiple sensors around the the same room, thanks to 3D high-
and drivers’ and passengers’ personal city. Residents can use smart-phones to definition live video. 3D presentations
devices. At the individual level this improves check air quality, get traffic information or can simultaneously be given, blurring the
safety via crash prevention and provides reserve sports pitches at local parks. People boundaries further between the real and
rich real-time information about routes, with asthma can get pollution alerts. For the virtual. http://www.dvetelepresence.com/
traffic and optimum drive speeds. At mobility, there is a personal travel assistant
the system level, real-time information app available that gives real-time transport
from thousands of vehicles will enable information (such as when the next bus/train
transportation managers to optimise will arrive), and also provides a travel planner,
the system for efficiency by adjusting carbon calculator, and real-time router to
signalling, lane availability, etc. enable “seamless travel”. http://www.time.
http://www.intellidriveusa.org/ com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1916302-
1,00.html


5. ‘refuel’ our vehicles Better Place, © www.betterplace.com

We need to shift the way we power our vehicles from
petrol to renewable, low-carbon fuel sources. Oil is
one of the most threatened, and increasingly difficult
to access, resources in the world.
Even though we cannot say with certainty that we
will run out in the next thirty years, extracting and
delivering the remaining oil to market is becoming
increasingly difficult. Moreover, shortages and
8

disruptions could occur for a number of other reasons,
from policy to terrorism, warfare and natural disasters.
The uncertainty over future energy supplies is, of
course, compounded by rising awareness of climate
change and the increasing possibility or regulation
that will shift the way we power the global economy. 5.1 Better Place – battery subscription
As oil becomes more scarce, expensive and a security
Better Place has been set up to counter
risk, we need implement greater energy efficiency the two main obstacles to mass adoption
measures, and shift the way we power our vehicles of electric vehicles (i.e. cars that solely use
from petrol to renewable, low carbon fuel sources. batteries, as opposed to hybrids). Better
Place stations allow you to switch a used
battery in your car for a fully charged one in
Most vehicle technology experts agree that the potential a few minutes, avoiding the need for hours
to improve fuel efficiency with advanced technologies of recharging during a long journey. Better
is enormous. At the same time, the market for low- Place also allows you to subscribe to a
battery service. This means that drivers don’t
carbon energy could treble to US $2.2 trillion by 2020. 9
have to pay to own the battery – which is
We need significant investment in battery and fuel usually the most expensive component of
a fully electric vehicle. Better Place is due
technology to take alternative energy-powered vehicles to launch commercially in 2011 in Denmark
to scale over the next few decades. and Israel, in partnership with Renault which
has designed a switchable-battery electric
8
Richard Heinberg, The Party’s Over, Peak Everything. vehicle. http://www.betterplace.com/
9
James Murray, HSBC predicts low-carbon
energy market will treble to $2.2. tn by 2020,
GreenBiz.com, 6 Sept 2010, http://www.businessgreen.
com/business-green/news/2269279/hsbc-predicts-
low-carbon-energy.


RoboScooter, © Michael Chia-Liang Lin, MIT Media Lab, Smart Cities group Wood Chips storage lot – Used for Biofuel

5.2 MIT Roboscooter concept 5.3 Biofuels from waste

This is a folding electric scooter designed for First-generation biofuels from food crops
cities where scooters are a popular form of are unsustainable and are unlikely to have
transport (such as many developing world a significant long-term future. However,
cities). “RoboScooters serve as approximate second-generation biofuels from waste are in
functional equivalents of 50cc gasoline- development, such as cellulosic ethanol. This
powered scooters. They are, however, clean, can be distilled from plant waste headed for
silent, and occupy less parking space. landfill such as corn stalks, timber chippings,
They are also much simpler – consisting of even low-grade paper. It is estimated that
about 150 parts, compared to the 1,000 to cellulosic ethanol from these sources could
1,500 of an equivalent gasoline-powered provide a third of the USA’s transport fuel
scooter – which simplifies supply chains and requirements; there is also potential for
assembly processes, reduces vehicle costs, effective deployment in the developing world,
and simplifies maintenance.” where most plant waste is currently burned.
http://cities.media.mit.edu/ (Go to Mobility http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.
section, then select Roboscooter). cfm?id=trash-based-biofuels


6. change people’s behaviour Electronic road pricing signage

Although planning and technology can do a lot to
improve mobility, many of our future challenges are
shaped by people’s values, behaviour and preferences.
As well as switching from cars to more low-carbon
vehicles, cities need to think about ways in which
mass behaviour and social norms can be inﬂuenced
to get people to think beyond their current patterns
of travel and ways of living.
In fact, because of increasing urbanisation, cities
need to be the key players in promoting low-carbon,
healthier lifestyles. The most effective governments
and businesses will engage in early planning to
inﬂuence lifestyles rather than simply relying on
additional road infrastructure and modes of transport.

6.1 Singapore congestion pricing

Singapore was an early and successful
pioneer of user charges to prevent urban
congestion. It began with a simple fee
system in 1975 that was upgraded in 1998
to a high tech system that charges motorists
at variable rates depending on the time
at which they drive within the city. Strong
investment in public transport provides an
alternative means for residents to move
about. The Singapore congestion pricing
system has inspired similar systems in
London, Oslo, Stockholm and Milan. http://
worldstreets.wordpress.com/2010/05/31/
density-without-tears-singapores-
transportation-secrets/


Cyclists in Seoul Whipcar website, © Whipcar Ltd

6.2 No-driving days in Seoul 6.3 Whip car – peer-to-peer car rental

No-driving days are used in many cities Whip car is the world’s first peer-to-peer
around the world to check congestion. The car rental service. Car owners can rent
system in Seoul is particularly notable as out their own cars when they aren’t using
it is voluntary and popular: residents are them. Users can search for and hire cars in
incentivised to sign up to it by benefits such their neighbourhoods. This is a distributed
as insurance discounts, reduced–price and flexible system that uses existing cars,
parking and tax-breaks. Participants agree mediated by a trusted website with a ratings
not to drive on one business day per week, system, and requires no additional physical
and compliance is monitored via RFID tags infrastructure. http://www.whipcar.com/
attached to windscreens. The city benefits
from having approximately 10,000 fewer
vehicles on the road every day. http://www.
time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1916302-
1,00.html


4. plan the
future now

how to run a workshop
using the scenarios
Futures workshops are a powerful way for
organisations to develop a common understanding
of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead
and to develop effective plans. Our scenarios are
designed to help governments, city authorities,
businesses – anyone involved in urban mobility
services – to explore how major trends may play
out in different ways and to assess what this Below is an outline for how to plan a General workshop hints and tips
would mean for their goals. workshop using the four scenarios
A few words of advice that we recommend
Please note that this is a generic outline of as part of any type of futures workshop
Workshops get people to talk and listen, to ﬁnd how to run the workshop and you should process:
common, motivating ground, and to develop more customise it to suit your particular needs • Establish a set of ground rules at the
and objectives. outset of the workshop e.g. everyone to
sustainable, long-term solutions. They are an participate and engage, no mobiles, etc.
excellent way to test strategy and make it more • Ensure participants understand that
resilient by integrating sustainability considerations. futures workshops are a journey. They
should expect to feel challenged and
And they can be a strong tool for sustainable be willing to suspend disbelief.
innovation, helping to develop new business • Have participants introduce themselves
models, products or services. at the outset of the workshop. Make
introductions more interactive and
engaging by asking each participant to
We are also very keen to hear of your experiences answer a question (e.g. what is your
using the scenarios – please contact us to tell us main aspiration for your city over the
how you use them and what results. Not sure how to run this workshop next 30 years?) in addition to introducing
or need some assistance? themselves.
• Make sure you are recording key parts
Please contact Forum for the Future of the workshop discussion on ﬂipcharts
at MegacitiesontheMove@forumfor or with an audio/video recording.
thefuture.org – we can help facilitate • Have readymade hand-outs for key
workshops and provide strategic exercises to facilitate a more structured
advice on sustainable urban mobility. process of recording key take-aways.
We are also very keen to hear of your • Consider using materials that will assist
experiences using the scenarios – people with creative exercises such as
please contact us to tell us how you coloured paper, magazines for cutting
use them and what results. images out, different coloured markers,
post-its for annotation, etc.

Return to contents 4. plan for the future now > how to run a workshop using the scenarios page 50

sample agenda day one:
engaging with the scenarios

Plenary

• Introduction and framing.
• Plenary brainstorm exercise.

Introduction to scenarios

• Presentation of the scenarios.
• Plenary discussion to get initial reactions.

Scenario immersion exercise

• In groups, participants engage with the scenarios using a critical question
and/or creative exercises.
• Scenario immersion exercises.

Sharing feedback

• Presentations of each group’s ﬁndings/conclusions and plenary discussion.

Wrap up

• Review what has been achieved in the ﬁrst day.
• Discuss plan for day two.
• In groups, participants engage with the scenarios using a critical question
and/or creative exercises.


day one: example exercises

plenary brainstorm
Sample exercise: “What changes?”
(20 minutes) scenario immersion
This exercise helps demonstrate how much Sample exercise 1 Sample exercise 2: “city sketch”
can change in a 30-year time period: that (35 minutes) (50 minutes)
2040 could be radically different from today,
that the future is uncertain and that we The aim of this type of immersion exercise The aim of this immersion exercise is to
should plan for a range of possibilities. is for people to accept their scenario as a get people closer to thinking about speciﬁc
• Going around the room, get each possible future, and to get to know it well mobility risks and opportunities by visualising
participant to respond to the following enough to respond to it creatively. their ‘world’ in the form of a city street sketch.
questions: • Explain that you want participants to talk • Groups to sketch out what a typical city
> What’s changed in your city/in the about one scenario in a small group. scene would look like in their scenario
world/in your organisation/etc. in the • Break up into four smaller groups, and in 2040.
past 30 years? assign one scenario to each group; • Include as much detail as possible,
> Which of these developments were ensure that each group has a good annotating when necessary.
expected? Which less so? representation of people from different • Try to allocate tasks to everyone in
• Prompt people to respond to the question backgrounds, if possible. the group.
thinking about: How they socialise? • Facilitators should be on hand to answer • Think about a typical city street scene in
How they work? How they communicate? questions in groups, explain process, etc. your scenario in 2040…
How they move around? • Provide individual handouts of detailed > How do people move around on the
• Have on hand examples of changes that scenarios for each group to read, as well street, and why?
have happened over the past 30 years as a pro-forma for groups to structure > What kinds of shops are there, ofﬁces?
to spark conversation in case people discussion around and record key > How are buildings used?
are having trouble getting the brainstorm comments on. > What does the ‘street furniture’ look like
going. • Ask people: (benches, trees, bus stops)?
> What they think about their scenario?
> How easy/hard is the scenario to
engage with?
> In this scenario, what sectors of the
population would be winners and
which would be losers?
> How successful would your In Mumbai and Istanbul, participants
organisation/city/country be in were asked to develop scenarios for their
this scenario? respective cities as part of the immersion
> What sort of world is this for process. Take a look at the Istanbul and
sustainability? Mumbai scenario examples for more detail.


sample agenda day two:
responding to the scenarios

morning
Introduction

• Review day one achievements.
• Go through agenda for day two.

Identifying challenges and opportunities

• Discuss and agree the most significant mobility challenges
for your organisation/city/country.
• Discuss the best ways of providing people with access to
essential goods, services and information in your scenario.

then
either

afternoon
Option 1 – strategic action planning afternoon
• Prioritising solutions: Option 2 – product/service/business model innovation end of day
> Groups share their primary challenges
and solutions in plenary. • Business model generation Review workshop and wrap up
> Groups select the most attractive/ > Groups to brainstorm potential new product/service/business
critical solutions. models for their scenario. • Time for individuals to reflect on the process,
• Developing strategic action plan: > Groups to capture key elements of the value chain, and share and actions to take away into their respective
> Group discussion around key solutions, in plenary. organisations.
and what would need to be done to • Test the innovations • Opportunity for people to share their reflections.
implement them fully. > In groups, test each of the product/service/business models • Wrap up, next steps.
• Present action plans: by analysing whether they would work in all the scenarios
> Groups present strategic action plans. > Identify the most ‘future proof’ innovation/elements
> Plenary discussion to scrutinise of innovations.
whether the action plan would work > Discuss next steps in implementation.
in all scenarios.


day two: example exercises

morning afternoon: option 1 afternoon: option 2
Identifying challenges and Action planning Business model generation
opportunities (85 minutes) (50 minutes) (1 hour)

This session is about explicitly identifying the The final group work session in this type Groups stay with their specific scenario.
risks and opportunities that have emerged of workshop process involves getting Put aside the current business strategy
out of group discussion during immersion participants to the point where they have for a moment and ask yourselves:
sessions. Most of this will have come up identified a small number of sustainable • If you were an entrepreneur in this
already, so it is a matter of getting it down mobility solutions that would be robust scenario and you wanted to set up a
on paper, plus teasing out more thinking. in each of the four scenarios. In the new fashion company (with global
• Urge people to think about mobility as action planning session, they will begin ambitions), what sort of company
a means of access – to social capital, to identify the high-level actions that will would this be?
to financial capital, information, etc. – be needed to implement these solutions. • Please describe this new company’s
not just as transport. • Begin with a plenary discussion: for business model (product, service,
• Ask them to write down each challenge the opportunities we came up with, markets, supply chains etc).
and opportunity on a post-it. what solutions could help us capitalise • What would this company’s key assets
• Thinking about the challenges and on them? be, what differentiated it and made it a
opportunities encapsulated in your city • Get people to identify 3–5 commercial success?
sketch, discuss the best ways in this potential solutions.
city of the future of providing access: • Form working groups, one per Testing the innovations
> to employment opportunities. proposed solution. (1 hour)
> to goods and services. • For the solutions that have been
> to friends and family. prioritised: In plenary, discuss the following:
> for the urban poor. > What are the short term, medium term • Is there anything in common between the
> within environmental limits. and long term actions to implement different business model innovations?
• Use the follow on session to share each the idea? • Is there one that could be successful in
group’s risks and opportunities in plenary, > What organisation needs to do what? all four scenarios?
cluster according to themes. > What further information is required? • Alternatively, are there elements of each
• Prioritise three key opportunities based > Other action planning e.g. different – e.g. specific products/services – that
on their applicability to each scenario. actors, gateways, barriers etc? could form part of a successful innovation
process in each scenario?
• What are the key next steps in shifting
to the most interesting/viable business
model ideas?


case studies from Mumbai

Istanbul and Mumbai
In order to test the mobility scenarios and explore
their application to different urban settings, we ran
workshops in two different cities: Mumbai and Istanbul.
These are two key global ‘megacities’, but they are
also rapidly growing, rapidly changing urban areas.
They are already experiencing all the positive and
negative effects of these changes, including severe
mobility challenges.

Istanbul The aim of the workshops was to: In advance, we developed outlines of what
might be happening in Mumbai and in
• Explore speciﬁc future challenges and Istanbul if each scenario became reality.
opportunities around mobility in the city. We asked the participants to engage with
• Generate innovative sustainable mobility these in the workshop and develop visions
ideas and solutions and explore means of the future – based on their expert
of implementing them. knowledge about their cities and the speciﬁc
• Build collaborative networks between mobility challenges they might face.
experts working on mobility-related
issues in the city. In order to get as holistic a perspective
• Inspire enthusiasm and a desire for as possible, the workshop audience was
sustainable change. a varied mix of stakeholders engaged
• Inspire a shift in existing strategy and in different aspects of mobility: including
contribute to promoting systemic transport planners, architects,
sustainable mobility solutions. companies providing mobility solutions
and campaigning organisations.

There were very different results for each
city. The Mumbai workshop led to an
overall action plan focussed on transport
and urban planning, whereas in Istanbul
the participants decided they needed
a more general campaign to promote
sustainability in the city.

Return to contents 4. plan for the future now > case studies from Istanbul and Mumbai page 55

case study: Istanbul
“The Megacities on the Move scenarios ignited a aspirations for Istanbul
powerful understanding of the need to change. In the workshop, the participants expressed “Mobility for people, not vehicles”
Continuing with business as usual made Istanbul the following aspirations for Istanbul in 2040: • Collaborative, human-centred urban
in 2040 a dismal place with severe limitations on planning.
“One of the top five cities in the world” • Planning takes into account factors
energy use. • A greener city, with lower emissions such as accessibility and resource
and healthier air. availability.
But there are interesting, more positive visions. • A peaceful city. • More use of ICT solutions to reduce
Could Turkey become a big player in the energy • A stable population. physical movement.
• Sustainable lifestyles. • A world-leading, multi-modal public
markets by investment in alternatives? How could • Strong safety nets for the poor. transport system.
this also create an awareness of sustainable living • Infrastructure that keeps up with • Shift away from fossil fuels.
among the citizens of Istanbul? We could build a population and demand. • Car-free city centre.
• Eco footprint going down, and bio • More pedestrian- and cyclist-friendly
very liveable city with a great sense of community.” capacity going up (i.e. the city produces solutions.
more and consumes less). • Better navigation systems to improve
> Sibel Bulay, Director, EMBARQ Turkey road safety.

“ People will aspire to a more relaxed, less
stressful way of life – a slower lifestyle.
Less time at work and more time to spend
with family or on leisure pursuits. Less time
wasted commuting.”
> Haluk Gercek, Head of Transportation
Research Center, Istanbul Technical
University (ITÜ)

Return to contents 4. plan for the future now > case study: Istanbul page 56

Istanbul workshop – highlights from the scenarios

Planned-opolis Sprawl-ville

• Turkey’s economy is strong as a result of • Turkey has a commitment to a 40% • Turkey remains a major oil and gas • Infrastructure favoured by the elites and
its wealth in natural resources and absolute cut in carbon emissions by transport hub, but with volatile flows powerful companies is cordoned off,
strategic alliances with the Central Asian 2050, placing great pressure on and falling production levels. while other has become semi-derelict,
Bloc. It is the key energy corridor emissions from transport in Istanbul. • Energy security is a concern and unofficially colonised by migrants and
between East and West. Istanbul’s People have personal Energy Calorie pipelines are now guarded by the military. with major security problems. Many low-
population growth has been restricted Cards that regulate mobility and use Turkey is finally, if belatedly, scaling income workers are forced to relocate
by availability of water and land. There of fossil fuel. up its wind power capabilities. close to work sites in order to manage the
has been planned resettling as a result, • Polluters are heavily fined. Traffic is • Istanbul has been weakened by lack of commute. Roads are segregated, so that
with the formation of new satellite cities. automatically controlled by a smart secure energy supply, there are periodic the rich get access to high speed lanes,
Informal settlements have been cleared system, reducing congestion and supply disruptions and unrest on the breeding resentment. Those who cannot
and replaced by efficient tower blocks. regulating flow. Companies have specific streets as a result. afford this privilege are stuck in more
• Istanbul is experiencing severe water travel slots for their employees. • Power is in the hands of the few and congested traffic on ground level – with
shortages and there is a strong focus on • Car use is restricted, forcing people onto decisions are made by elites and in the a mix of cars, buses, two-wheelers
technologies that radically improve the public transport networks. The third interests of elites. For example, many and pedestrians.
efficiency of resource use and agriculture. bridge is now reserved for public buildings and developments owned
• A lot of money has also been spent transport only, for example. There is also by the wealthy truck in daily water
on making Istanbul’s infrastructure more much more sea-based public transport, supplies while the poor are left to fend
resistant to flooding and earthquakes. including wind and solar powered ferries. for themselves.
Parts of the city have been cleared of • There has been a massive uptake of • The population of Istanbul grew rapidly
settlements to provide water channels virtual working as well as cycling, up to around 2030 but then peaked
and flood plains. because this helps add credit to your and began to decline as migrants
• There is inequality in the city, but calorie balance. All of this is facilitated returned to their rural roots,
everyone has benefitted from growth by smartphones, which have become disenchanted by overcrowding, resource
and new investment. Business is more a one-stop-shop for information, scarcity and rising unemployment. The
formalised, and closely involved in the payment, and regulation enforcement. formal economy is dominated by big
running of the city. The ‘grey market’ business and owes its power and
has contracted. success as much to political influence
as to legitimate profit.


Istanbul workshop – highlights from the scenarios (cont…)

Renew-abad Communi-city

• Turkey has become a strong player in • Emissions are no longer a problem, but • Istanbul is a powerful and wealthy city, • The whole city has become more
wind and solar as well as a major energy congestion is. Zoning is strict, with influencing both the east and the west. informal: there is more individual crop
supplier for the EU, which it is now a more and more localisation of housing As a regional hub, it attracts international growing and creative use of common
part of. and services within self-sufficient areas, migrants and is becoming more diverse, space, and more chaos on the roads.
• Strong city governance has ensured e.g. community farming towers, local despite continuing migration from • The city’s three bridges use shock-
Istanbul has become a low-carbon city multi-faith complexes. Turkey’s east. absorbing energy collectors which
by 2040. However, it is experiencing • Services between neighbourhoods are • Most planning and regulation is local and restaurant owners and retailers on
significant climate impacts, including increasingly linked virtually, from virtual community-based – except for matters of the banks are using to power their
extreme heat, increased seismic activity museums to hospital check-ups. The city National Security relevance, typically businesses.
and rising sea levels. government has mandated increased related to climate adaptation, resource • Turkey has become a centre for low-
• Comprehensive flood protection and home-working to limit daily commuting. use and basic infrastructure. carbon vehicle technology, in order to
infrastructure retrofitting is taking place, • The city is revitalising public transport, • Energy supply is very diverse. Small satisfy high levels of local demand within
at great expense. Green cover is including the water ferry system – using scale urban solar generation is big, for fossil fuel constraints. Public transport
increased, both at street level and across high-speed catamarans and adding more example, but needs to be supplemented is used, but mainly with incomes below
all city rooftops. People continue to have routes. This is emerging as one of the by large-scale wind and Concentrated $3,000 in local purchasing power in the
increasing lifestyle aspirations – including most popular modes of public transport Solar Power from other parts of the city. Istanbulus otherwise prefer to have
personal vehicle and home ownership, • The third bridge has been country. There are many home-brewed their own, customised personal mobility
more space and more leisure time pedestrianised, and is being utilised by biofuels. solutions, from solar scooters to self-
– which is causing social tension small entrepreneurs as retail space. • Climate change has destabilised driving luxury electropods.
between the haves and have-nots. less affluent areas of Turkey and this has • People are very comfortable moving
• Istanbul has grown significantly over the increased the number of migrants arriving between real and virtual spaces. They
past three decades into a vast, crowded in Istanbul. There is huge pressure on key socialise less in person, and some
city-region, spreading farther and resources from a growing population. increasingly shield themselves from
farther as the rich migrate out in pursuit • To cope with the heat, large-scale reality through virtual lives, retreating
of more space and greenery. Turkey greening of the city has taken place. from reality.
is one of the world’s biggest markets For example, buildings must be painted
for electric cars (mainly imported from white by law.
China), and motorisation levels have • Society is more materialistic than
caught up with Europe. before. People are very self-reliant
and entrepreneurial.


Istanbul workshop – planning ahead

Key opportunities Next steps Key phases
“ People are not really aware of the
The participants in Istanbul identified a The participants felt that at this stage the • Educate next generation and apply
danger. We have to educate even the
number of opportunities relevant to all most important opportunity was to “raise pressure on the system (a series
policy makers, as well as the people
the scenarios and vital for the promotion awareness of climate change and the need of politically binding agreements
on the streets.”
of sustainable mobility in the city. for sustainable mobility, so that people are on sustainability in the city).
> Orhan Demir, Urban Planner, PlanOfis
more willing to change their behaviour.” • People demand better, more sustainable
However, awareness raising was seen They identified a plan for coordinating an mobility solutions.
to have a number of cross-cutting awareness-raising campaign: • Politicians will have to act accordingly,
benefits, including: creating a virtuous circle.
• Building a critical mass of support for Strategic framework • Regulation.
more sustainable living in Istanbul. • Common awareness platform.
• Creating an environment for success, • Multi-stakeholder partnership:
encouraging government or business government, investors, civil society,
action. business, etc.
• Offering a systemic approach to urban • Emphasise social and economic
lifestyles, rather than focusing specifically opportunities of sustainability for
on transport. each stakeholder group.
• Create sustainable lifestyle pilots:
e.g. use the Princes Islands as a
demonstration for sustainable mobility.
• Lifelong learning sustainability.
programme integrated into school
curricula, television programming.
• Training for politicians.
• Creation of beneficial subsidies.
• Guidance and capacity-building
for NGOs.
• Monitoring group to oversee progress.


case study: Mumbai
“In Mumbai the suburban rail system is already aspirations for Mumbai
150% over capacity. We can see the challenges looming In the workshop, the participants expressed “A city that’s run for everyone”
ahead as the city’s population is predicted to grow the following aspirations for Mumbai in 2040: • Better accessibility, particularly for
from 22 million residents in 2001 to 38 million the poor.
“A localised, liveable city” • Better community engagement.
residents by 2040. 10
• Vibrant local communities. • Enforced rights and regulations.
• A pleasant, stress free daily experience, • Improved governance around land use
The scenarios prompted imaginative visions in response with lots of open spaces. and transport planning, with a focus
to this – from a metro line towering at 150 feet over • Better air quality. on holistic planning approaches that
• Better living conditions and address interconnected issues such
several tiers of elevated roads, to creative multi-use of more accessibility. as transport and environment.
building space and more localised planning solutions. • Less need to travel for the basics.
Many of the scenario responses highlighted the need • More space for pedestrians and cyclists
in the city.
for immediate action to shift to less energy intensive • Improved transport capacity.
transport modes.”
> Madhav Pai, Director, EMBARQ India

“ There is a lot that needs to be done to
make planning more democratic. There
is not much public discussion on what
people require or want. Only the powerful
builders decide what happens to the city.”
> Aneerudha Paul, Director, Kamla Raheja
Vidyanidhi Institute of Architecture and
Environmental Studies

10
Mumbai Metropolitan Regional Development
Agency (MMRDA), Comprehensive Transport Study
(CTS) for Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR): http://
www.mmrdamumbai.org/compreh_transport_study.
htm (accessed on 24 September, 2010).

Return to contents 4. plan for the future now > case study: Mumbai page 60

Mumbai workshop – highlights from the scenarios

Planned-opolis Sprawl-ville

• Mumbai is still an important urban area • People tend to support change and • Like many countries, India is forced • There is an increase in street protests by
in India, but the economy has not grown intervention, however there is a vocal to scramble for oil supplies on the the masses of low-income rural migrants
as anticipated and there are many more minority that feels that Mumbai’s plural, world market. and newly disempowered middle classes
rival cities. democratic identity is being eroded. • The city’s population is lower than who face rising food and fuel prices,
• The management of the city is highly India is still a powerful global player in estimates predicted, as a result of wage cuts and job insecurity.
automated to minimise climate impact technology research and development, renewed economic hardship and fuel • Rail and the metro remain the main
and maximise efficiency. All buildings with many technologies having originated poverty, which has forced some choice for mass transit, but maintenance
have compulsory rainwater harvesting in Mumbai. migrants back to rural areas. cutbacks are resulting in rising problems
requirements, for example, and electricity • India’s Carbon Plan has driven a shift • There are numerous ‘failed’ with unreliability and a number of
disruptions due to flooding mean periods to widespread electrification and developments on the outskirts of the accidents. The bicycle has also returned
of enforced rationing. energy efficiency measures. city, built too far from public transport in large numbers.
• With tight controls on resources, it is • Some historic parts of the city remain, and therefore unaffordable to urban • Mumbai is more resilient than many cities
difficult to live off the informal economy but much of Mumbai now looks very commuters now that oil prices are high. because of its strong IT sector that relies
in the city. Mumbai’s population has similar to other megacities in the world. • Climate induced flooding events and less on oil for production and transport.
peaked at 20 million. Many slums have Businesses have to provide transport for heat waves in the city have increased,
been cleared, especially when damaged their employees, using ultra-efficient but little official action is taken.
by floods, and slum dwellers have been buses, creating public private • The rich rely on expanded police
given aid packages to relocate to less partnerships on rail networks, or enabling forces and sophisticated IT to govern,
vulnerable, or even newly build towns. their employees to work in hubs close and benefit from roads or lanes
• In Mumbai there has been an increase to home. reserved for paying customers and
in the number of floating settlements • Carbon constraints and the high oil price many live in floating developments
for the rich that offer a higher level of mean that mean that car ownership has connected by speedboats.
security. not grown as much as expected, but
people are content to rely on a high
degree of virtual mobility.


Mumbai workshop – highlights from the scenarios (cont…)

Renew-abad Communi-city

• India is one of the global leaders in solar • Urban agriculture is heavily subsidised • As a global knowledge economy hub, • Widespread urban agriculture and
and hydrogen innovation and Mumbai by the government to ensure adequate Mumbai has fared better than many aquaculture – bolstered by
has a goal to become the first carbon- levels of nutrition for the poor. other Asian cities in this more neutraceuticals, genetic modification
free city in the world. • Slums have been rehabilitated as protectionist world. and other agricultural technologies –
• Growing energy demand is met through urban eco-villages, with thriving cottage • Micro-entrepreneurship and DIY allows food supply to keep up with
decentralised generation, mandated by industries. There has been a renaissance flourishes, and has proved to be a driver demand, but only very narrowly.
policy: household-level anaerobic of small, local retail formats in of strong growth for Mumbai in an age • Micro nuclear is the dominant energy
digestion and micro-solar generation pedestrianised zones. of fragmented globalisation. For example, generation technology in Mumbai’s
have gone to scale. • Mumbai’s streets continue to be the city has been a leader in the scaling neighbourhoods, though the wider
• A mega-project for desalination of sea overcrowded after a huge uptake up of solar scooter technology. Mumbai city region is also a leader in
water is being implemented. On the of locally produced personal electric • The city continues to be an unequal small-scale biomass conversion.
city streets, Aquawallas distribute pod vehicles – both in terms of place, but there is greater social • The less well-off build their vehicles
harvested and filtered water packs to personal ownership and on-demand mobility than before. People are very personally and customise them using
daily commuters. rental services. self-reliant, and innovate rapidly in order locally designed and produced kits,
• A recent wave of plant skyscrapers to maintain their livelihoods and generate open source designs and old cars.
increase green space and food new opportunities. TATA has just released its millionth
availability, reduce the urban heat effect, • The city is locally organised. Many local Nano-er self-assembly kit.
and help absorb runoff from rainwater. neighbourhoods have their own • The rich have gone increasingly virtual,
Mumbai’s biggest challenge is its climate change adaptation strategies preferring to avoid the tedious daily
continued high population, which has – constructing floating farms, restoration commute altogether.
surpassed 22 million, as the city’s and expansion of mangroves, and
dynamic economy makes it attractive creating flood-resistant construction.
to immigrants.


Mumbai workshop – planning ahead

Key opportunities and next steps 1. Localised urban planning 2. Integrated transport solutions 3. Innovation in energy
and transport technologies
The participants identified a number of a) Launch a project to demonstrate the a) A phased Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)11
key solutions and developed a high-level benefits of localised/mixed use implementation, which also a) Create a solid platform for future
action plan. planning, looking at existing examples, systematically segregates pedestrians, technologies – electric cars, hybrids,
analysing success factors, and other non-motorised vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell (e.g. address
implementing a pilot with a new motorised vehicles. battery challenges).
development in the city. b) Transport hubs where the different b) Implement a vehicle-sharing system.
b) Identify and advocate new ways to do nodes (including the metro, which will c) Identify solutions with highest potential
work in local neighbourhoods (e.g. have been built by then) can meet. for uptake.
building small, localised working hubs, d) Identify potential barriers
mainstreaming remote working – (e.g. IT platform availability).
currently not common practice). e) Create partnerships to scale it up (VCs,
c) Advocate the need for a cultural 11
A public transportation system which uses buses to
corporations, NGOs, IT providers, etc.).
shift to more flexible working practices provide faster, more efficient service, usually by making f) Consumer advocacy campaign.
(e.g. corporate policies on flexi- improvements in infrastructure, vehicles, or scheduling g) Create demand management system.
such as having a dedicated lane for buses for example.
working, campaigns that highlight For more information on BRT, see the Wikipedia entry: h) Implement technology platform.
benefits of remote working, etc.). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bus_rapid_transit.

“ The importance of early action is huge.
We need to understand the problem, but
also the advantages we have right now.
Public transport and non-motorised travel
are still very high in Mumbai. If we do not
intervene now… THEN it’s going to be a
big problem!”
> Anumita Roychowdhury,
Associate Director, Centre for
Science and Environment


appendix: thank yous
Special thanks to the Neera Adarkar, Architect, Rachana Dilek Çol, Urban Planner, Istanbul Craig Goodfellow, Project Director
following people for Sansad Academy of Architecture Metropolitan Municipality, Transport for Fuels and Lubricants, Ricardo
Planning Directorate Consulting Engineers
their contributions to Uma Adusumili, Chief Planner,
the project – through Mumbai Metropolitan Regional Naveen Chopra, Director – Enterprise & Dave Greenwood, Project Director,
Development Agency Carrier Business, Vodafone Essar Limited Technology, Ricardo Consulting
interviews, workshops Engineers
and peer reviews: Rishi Aggarwal, Research Fellow, Susan Claris, Associate Director, Arup
Observer Research Foundation Engin Güvenç, Executive Director,
Madhvendra Das, Head, Public Turkish Business Council for
Dr. Jillian Anable, Co-transport Topic Relations, Vodafone Essar Sustainable Development
Leader, UK Energy Research Centre
Ashok Datar, Head, Mumbai Dr. Murat Güvenç, Professor, Bilgi
Greg Archer, Director, Low Carbon Environmental Social Network University
Vehicle Partnership
Orhan Demir, Urban Planner, Salvador Herrera, CEO, Centro de
Ceren Ayas, Freshwater Programme Plan Oﬁs Ltd Transporte Sustentable de México
Ofﬁcer, WWF Turkey
Paul Dickinson, Executive Chairman, Mustafa Ilicali, Transportation Advisor,
Ela Babalik, Professor, Faculty of Carbon Disclosure Project Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality
Architecture, Middle East Technical
University in Ankara Selim Dundar, Bahcesehir University Mine�Izmirli, Environmental Advocacy
Coordinator, TEMA
Sudhir Badami, Independent transport Pinar Erbayik, Club Correspondent,
& urban analyst Turkey’s Touring and Automobile Ajit K Jindal, Head Engineer,
Association Tata Motors
David Begg, Publisher, Transport Times
Necip Ertas, Transportation Director, Stephen Joseph, Director, Transport
Chris Borroni-Bird, Director of Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality 2000
Advanced Technology Vehicle Concepts,
General Motors Govindraj Ethiraj, former Editor-in-Chief, Hadi Karadeniz, Deputy Director,
Bloomberg UTV Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality,
Thomas C. Briggs, Vice President, Transport Planning Directorate
Policy, BP Alternative Energy, and Gordon Feller, Director of Urban
Head of Transport Energy Policy, BP Innovations, Cisco Systems Aslıhan Karayama, Health & Safety,
Vodafone
Isa Cerrah, Istanbul Metropolitan Dr. Haluk Gerçek, Professor, Istanbul
Municipality, Transport Coordination Technical University Dilem Kaya, Product Development
Directorate Engineer, Ford Otosan
Swati Ghangurde, Head, Business
Relations, British Council Emre Kaynak, TNT Express Turkey

Return to contents 4. plan for the future now > appendix: thank yous page 64

appendix: thank yous (cont…)

Sonali Kelkar, Mumbai Environmental Ben Plowden, Director of Integrated Dr. Gereon Uerz, Project Director
Social Network Programme Delivery, Transport for – Future Affairs, Group Research,
London Volkswagen
Hadas Keren, Architect, Penoyre
& Prasad VG Prasad, Head – Fully Built Vehicles, Kevser Ustundag, Professor,
Tata Motors Architectural Faculty, Mimar Sinan
Dr. Tansel Korkmaz, Professor, Istanbul Fine Art University
Bilgi University Manjula Rao, Head Programmes
(West India), British Council Ömer Yıldız, CEO, Istanbul Metropolitan
Shanti Krishnan, Deputy Secretary, Municipality
Western India Automobile Association Philip Rode, Executive Director, Urban
Age Programme, London School of Sue Zielinski, MD, Sustainable
Mehmet Kutukcuoglu, Architect, Economics and Political Science Mobility & Accessibility Research &
Teget Architecture Transformation, University of Michigan
Anumita Roychowdhury, Associate
Binoy Mascarenhas, Urban Planner, Director, Centre for Science and Alper Zümrüt, External Affairs
EMBARQ (CST India) Environment, New Delhi Coordinator, Turkish Petrol Industry
Association
David Mayes, Director for Strategic PC Seghal, Managing Director, Mumbai
Planning and Sustainability, Railways Vikas Corporation
Melbourne Council
Prasad Shetty, Architect, Collective
Erhan Öncü, Transport Planner, Research Initiatives Trust
Transportation Research and
Planning Ltd Dan Sperling, Author of ‘Two Billion
Cars: Driving Towards Sustainability’;
Dr. Pınar Özuyar, Manager, Center for Director, Institute of Transportation
Energy, Environment and Economy, Studies, UC Davis University of California
Özyegin University
˘
Murat Suyabatmaz, Founder, Turkish
Tim Papandreou, Assistant Deputy Bicycle Association
Director, San Francisco Municipal
Transportation Agency Guy Summers, R&D Collaboration
Manager, Vodafone
Shirish Patel, Head, Shirish Patel &
Associates Consultants Private Limited Mehmet Toker, R&D Director, Ford
Motor Company
Aneerudha Paul, Director, Kamla Raheja
Vidyanidhi Institute of Architecture and Ernest Tollerson, Director, Policy
Environmental Studies and Media Relations, Metropolitan
Transportation Authority

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