Sustainability Connect, 2016

1. may 9.2016
Noelle Eckley Selin Assoc. Professor, IDSS & EAPS
Ron Prinn Director & Prof, Center for Global Change
Science
Steven Lanou Deputy Director, Office of Sustainability
Joe Higgins Director, Infrastructure Business Ops,
Office of Exec. VP & Treasurer
32 percent and beyond:
MIT’s role in meeting local
and global climate goals

2. may 9.2016
Noelle Eckley Selin
Assoc. Professor, IDSS &
EAPS
32 percent and beyond:
MIT’s role in meeting local
and global climate goals

3. may 9.2016
Ron Prinn
Director & Prof, Center for
Global Change Science
32 percent and beyond:
MIT’s role in meeting local
and global climate goals

4. DEPLETION OF ARCTIC SUMMER SEA ICE
Replacing reflecting with absorbing surface. New RECORD LOW in Sept 2012
INSTABILITY OF GREENLAND & WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEETS
7+5=12 meters of potential sea-level rise (Eemian sea level rise = 5-10 meters)
INSTABILITY OF ARCTIC TUNDRA & PERMAFROST
About 1670 billion tons of carbon stored in Arctic tundra & frozen soils; equivalent to
>200 times current anthropogenic emissions (Tarnocai, GBC, 2009)
DELETERIOUS INCREASES OF OCEANIC ACIDITY
pH drop exceeding 0.5 (>875 ppm CO2) could decimate calcareous phytoplankton
INCREASING DESTRUCTIVENESS OF TYPHOONS/HURRICANES
Increased 2-3 times post-1960 and correlated with sea-surface warming
(Emanuel, Sci., 2005; Kossin et al, GRL, 2007)
DEEP OCEAN CARBON & HEAT SINK SLOWED BY DECREASED SEA ICE
& INCREASED FRESH WATER INPUTS INTO POLAR SEAS
e.g. collapse if CO2 >620 ppm & CLIMATE SENSITIVITY >3.5oC (Scott et al, 2008)
SHIFTING CLIMATE ZONES
Maximum warming & % precipitation increase in polar regions
More arid sub-tropics & lower mid-latitudes (IPCC, 2013)
LOWERING RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: THE
GREENHOUSE GAMBLE and THE CHALLENGE of 2OC
Ron Prinn, SustainabilityConnect, MIT, May 9, 2016

5. TO ESTIMATE ODDS OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE,
WE USE THE MIT INTEGRATED GLOBAL SYSTEM
MODEL (IGSM) THAT COUPLES
HUMAN (ECONOMIC) SYSTEM &
EARTH (ENVIRONMENTAL) SYSTEM
*globalchange.mit.edu/research/IGSM
TO FORECAST PROBABILITY
For each policy choice, we do 400 IGSM runs (1750-2100) with
different but equally probable assumptions about uncertain
parameters and structures in the IGSM
HUMAN SYSTEM
IGSM ATTRIBUTES:
(1) ALL MAJOR NATIONAL
ECONOMIES AND TRADING
BETWEEN THEM
(2) DETAILED ENERGY AND NON-
ENERGY SECTOR TREATMENTS
(3) ALL GREENHOUSE GAS
EMISSIONS BY NATION &
SECTOR
(4) GREENHOUSE GAS & AIR
POLLUTANT CHEMICAL CYCLES
(5) CLIMATE RESPONSE TO
GREENHOUSE GASES
(6) IMPACTS OF CLIMATE & AIR
POLLUTION CHANGE ON
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

6. COMPARED
WITH NO
POLICY
What would we
buy with STABILIZATION
at 660 ppm-equivalent of CO2?
A NEW WHEEL
WITH LOWER
ODDS OF
EXTREMES
THE “GREENHOUSE GAMBLE”
THE VALUE OF CLIMATE POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY IS TO LOWER THE RISK
USING IGSM, WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GLOBAL AVERAGE SURFACE AIR WARMING from
1990 (1981-2000) to 2095 (2091-2100) EXCEEDING VARIOUS LEVELS, WITHOUT
GREENHOUSE GAS STABILIZATION (median 1330 ppm-equiv. CO2) & WITH STABILIZATION
(median 660 ppm-equiv. CO2)? Currently at 490 ppm-equiv. CO2.
(Ref: Sokolov et al, J. Clim. 2009; Webster et al, Clim. Change, 2012)

7. WE ARE CURRENTLY GAMBLING OUR FUTURE
CLIMATE ON THE LEFT HAND WHEEL.
THE CHALLENGE IS TO MOVE TO A MUCH LESS RISKY
WHEEL LIKE THE RIGHT HAND ONE.
BUT EVEN WITH THE RIGHT HAND WHEEL
THERE IS 80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2OC ABOVE 1990,
AND 97% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 2OC ABOVE PREINDUSTRIAL

8. Sea level rise is an exemplar of the risks to be avoided. The record
of past temperatures and sea levels deduced from polar ice cores
and other data shows that the last time polar temperatures went
above about 4°C over 1875 levels (116,000 to 129,000 years ago),
global sea levels were 5-10 meters (16-32 feet) higher than present
(IPCC, WG1, 2013). This sea level rise indicates melting of much of
the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets.
HOW CAN WE KEEP GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE INCREASES TO
BE LESS THAN 2OC (3.6OF) ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS?
There are now compelling reasons to regard a warming of about
2°C (3.6 °F) between preindustrial (1875) and 2100 as a
threshold, above which the damages globally to human and natural
systems due to climate change begin to become economically and
ethically less and less tenable (IPCC, WG1, 2013)
IT WILL NOT BE EASY. WE ARE ALREADY ABOUT 1OC ABOVE
PREINDUSTRIAL.
Due to amplification of polar warming, a polar temperature 4°C
over preindustrial corresponds to a global average temperature of
about 2°C over preindustrial.
THE 2OC CHALLENGE

9. MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF 2 DEGREES CENTIGRADE
A proposal from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change
The global average temperature has increased by almost 0.9°C (1.6°F) between 1875
and 2014. The evidence is now very compelling that most of this increase is due to human
activity, especially activity that produces carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases,
and soot. Also, there are now compelling reasons to regard a warming of about 2°C (3.6
°F) between 1875 and 2100 as a threshold, above which the damages globally to human
and natural systems due to climate change begin to become economically and ethically
less and less tenable, and damages above 3°C warming are certainly untenable. The
uncertainties in climate projections mean that we must think in terms of the probability,
not certainty, of reaching these thresholds. Hence, a strong case can be made for keeping
the warming below this 2°C threshold with 50% probability and below 3°C with 90%
probability, given our current understanding of uncertainties in earth system response to
greenhouse gases. The long lifetime of man-made carbon dioxide implies that net
anthropogenic emissions must decrease substantially by 2050 and eventually become
zero to avoid 2°C in the long-term. Achieving this reduction will require a radical
transformation in energy use, energy supply, land use, agricultural practices, waste
management, and other industrial processes. While a variety of technologies exist to
make this transformation, their costs generally need to be lowered, some may present
other environmental trade-offs, and most are unproven at the global scale of deployment
required. While improvements in technologies are needed, to have a hope of keeping
below the 2°C threshold with some confidence, immediate action is also needed by all
major emitting nations. Finally, the sooner the uncertainties in climate projections are
A PLAN FOR ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE,
President Rafael Reif et al, October 21, 2015

10.  After several years of research, estimates of the cost of
Carbon Capture & Sequestration (CCS) have risen substantially.
 Entry of China and other countries into the Nuclear Power
Sector has lowered costs and increased the future viability of
Nuclear at least in Developing Countries.
 Current & projected costs of solar power (manufacture and
installation) have steadily decreased, and to a lesser extent of
wind power, but intermittency remains a challenge for both.
 Expectations for affordable biofuels (cellulosic in particular)
and to a lesser extent biomass electricity have grown.
SOME RECENT TRENDS IN THE VIABILITY OF LOW & ZERO
EMISSIONS TECHNOLOGIES THAT INFLUENCE OUR RESULTS
USE A POLICY THAT PLACES A COST ON EMISSIONS: CARBON
PRICE ($/tonCO2-eq) RISES FROM 50, 100 & 150 ($/tonCO2-eq) in
2010 to 1400, 2800 & 4200 ($/tonCO2-eq) in 2100 FOR LOW,
MEDIUM & HIGH CLIMATE RESPONSE RESPECTIVELY.
A “PRELIMINARY EXPLORATION”
OF THE 2OC CHALLENGE USING
THE MIT IGSM

11. 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300
Time (years)
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
SurfaceTemperatureChange(C)
e5_policy_150_2015_p0_r0 CS=4.5
e5_policy_100_2015_p0_r0 CS=3.0
e5_policy_50_2015_p0_r0 CS=2.0
OBS
Global Average Surface
Temperature Change (OC)
Total Greenhouse Gases
(ppm CO2 equivalents)
THE 2OC CHALLENGE, contd. CHOOSE COMBINATIONS OF:
POLICY COST (CARBON PRICE in 2010 & 2100, in 2010 US$/tonCO2-eq)
and LOW, MEDIUM OR HIGH CLIMATE RESPONSE (labeled by 2, 3, 4.5 OC
climate sensitivities) THAT ACHIEVE THE TARGET. After 2100 all human GHG
emissions decrease at 1%/year. (Prinn, Paltsev, Sokolov & Chen calculations)
2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300
Time (years)
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
550.00
600.00
650.00
700.00
EquivalentCO2concentration(ppm)
e5_policy_150_2015_p0_r0 CS=4.5
e5_policy_100_2015_p0_r0 CS=3.0
e5_policy_50_2015_p0_r0 CS=2.0
Low Climate Response
Low Price: $50-1400/tonC
Medium Climate Response
Medium Price: $100-2800/tonC
High Climate Response
High Price: $150-4200/tonC

12. PRELIMINARY EXPLORATION
COMBINATIONS OF POLICY (CARBON
PRICE in 2010 & 2100 in 2010 USA
$/tonCO2-eq) & CLIMATE RESPONSE (2,
3, 4.5 OC climate sensitivities) THAT
ACHIEVE TARGET.
As carbon price rises, the
fraction of energy from
low/zero emission
technologies rises
(renewables [wind, solar,
biofuel], hydro, nuclear)
relative to fossil.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
EJ
renewables
hydro
nuclear
natural gas
oil
coal
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
EJ
renewables
hydro
nuclear
natural gas
oil
coal
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095EJ
renewables
hydro
nuclear
natural gas
oil
coal
$50-$1400/ton, Low Response
$100-$2800/ton, Medium Response $150-$4200/ton, High Response
As carbon price rises, total
energy use decreases
(higher energy efficiency),
while energy use
decreases in Developed
Nations & increases in
Developing Nations.
Global Total Energy Use (Exa-Joules
per year) by Production Technology.
Emerging
competition for land
and water
resources (biofuels,
biomass electric
power, hydropower,
forestry, food)

13.  Keeping future global average surface temperatures less than 2OC
above preindustrial is feasible, but the technological, economic and
political challenges are very large.
 Decrease consumption of energy through increases in energy
efficiency: buildings, urban infrastructure, air, land and sea
transportation, and transportation systems.
 Transform primary energy generation: biofuels, biomass electricity,
fossil or biomass with carbon capture & sequestration (CCS),
geothermal, hydro, nuclear, solar, waves and wind.
 Match energy supply and demand in an energy system with
significant intermittency: energy transmission (the grid), secondary
fuels (hydrogen) and energy storage (batteries, pumped storage).
 Engage technologies to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions:
methane, nitrous oxide, synthetic high technology gases.
 Affordable technologies for CCS also provide a “safety valve”
allowing large scale biomass electric power generation with CCS to
create a gigatons/year carbon sink.
 Economic and political barriers motivate adoption of national &
global policies that use market mechanisms to minimize costs and
revenue neutrality to gain acceptance.
 Achieving the 2OC target has significant air pollution reduction co-
benefits.
 The many difficulties in achieving the 2OC target argue for
substantial efforts in adaptation in concert with mitigation.
2OC CHALLENGE
SOME PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS
REGARDING IT’S ACHIEVEMENT

14. may 9.2016
Steven Lanou
Deputy Director, Office of
Sustainability
32 percent and beyond:
MIT’s role in meeting local
and global climate goals

16. http://www.ghgprotocol.org/
http://www.ghgprotocol.org/files/ghgp/public/overview-of-scopes.JPG
The GHG Protocol categorizes
emissions into three broad
scopes:
1: All direct GHG emissions.
2: Indirect GHG emissions from
consumption of purchased
electricity, heat or steam.
3: Other indirect emissions, such
as the extraction and production
of purchased materials and fuels,
transport-related activities in
vehicles not owned or controlled
by the reporting entity, electricity-
related activities (e.g. T&D
losses) not covered in Scope 2,
outsourced activities, waste
disposal, etc.
MIT measures the areas
indicated on the graph, which is in
line with industry best practice for
higher education.
Scopes measured by MIT in
the FY2014 and FY2015
GHG Inventories*
*Transmission & distribution losses are not shown
on this graph, but are measured by MIT in Scope 3
according to the GHG Protocol
GHG Inventory
Scopes Measured
MIT GHG Inventory Overview – December 2015
MIT Office of Sustainability | sustainability.mit.edu

17. MIT measures all direct
emissions in Scope 1 and all
indirect emissions in Scope 2.
MIT also currently measures T&D
losses and space leased for
academic purposes on the
Cambridge campus in Scope 3.
Because “scopes” are not an
easily recognizable set of
categories for the general public,
MIT, like most of our institutional
peers, categorizes emissions into
more familiar categories. Which
emissions from each scope are
included in these categories is
shown in the diagram to the left.
The three categories used by MIT
are Buildings, Fugitive Gases,
and Campus Vehicles.
GHG Inventory
Scopes Measured
Building energy use
Campus vehicles
Fugitive gases
Scope 1
Direct Emissions
Scope 2
Indirect Emissions
Scope 3
Indirect Emissions
Purchased electricity
Purchased steam &
chilled water
Leased space
Transmission & distribution
losses
Buildings Fugitive Gases Campus Vehicles
MIT measures all of these, and organizes into three large categories:
GHG Protocol Scopes
MIT GHG Inventory Overview – December 2015
MIT Office of Sustainability | sustainability.mit.edu
MIT Emissions Categories

18. MITIMCO
Not Included
OFF-CAMPUS SPACES LINCOLN LABORATORY
BATES LINEAR
ACCELERATOR CENTERHAYSTACK OBSERVATORY
The MIT FY2014 and FY2015
inventories include buildings
owned and leased for the
Cambridge campus. The
inventories do not currently
include real estate investment
holdings managed by MITIMCO,
off-campus space, Lincoln
Laboratory, Endicott House,
Haystack Observatory, Bates
Linear Accelerator Center, or the
MA Green High Performance
Computing Center.
GHG Inventory
Space Measured
MIT OWNED BUILDINGS (FOR ACADEMIC USE)
MIT LEASED BUILDINGS (FOR ACADEMIC USE)
MA GREEN HIGH
PERFORMANCE
COMPUTING CENTER
ENDICOTT HOUSE
MIT GHG Inventory Overview – December 2015
MIT Office of Sustainability | sustainability.mit.edu

19. FUGITIVE GASES
4,000 MTCO2E 1.9%
VEHICLES
1,150 MTCO2E 0.5%
LEASED ACADEMIC BUILDINGS
4,101 MTCO2E 1.9%
2014 is the baseline year for MIT
emissions reduction. It is the year
from which MIT will begin
accounting as the Institute works
to achieve it’s GHG reduction
goal and represents the first year
of comprehensive and
streamlined data collection.
Fugitive gas emissions and fleet
vehicle use comprise <3% of
emissions, while 98% of
emissions stem from operation of
labs, offices, and facilities across
campus.
Buildings
GHG Inventory
FY14 Inventory
Fugitive Gases
Campus Vehicles
TOTAL 2014
213,428 MTCO2E
MIT
Owned
Buildings,
204,177 ,
96%
MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISISONS
INVENTORY
2014 MAIN CATEGORIES
METRICTONSCO2E
TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES
(3,834)
LEASED BUILDINGS (ALL SOURCES) (4,101)
#2 FUEL OIL (8,069)
#6 FUEL OIL (12,557)
ELECTRICITY (38,765)
NATURAL GAS (140,953)
BUILDING
FUEL
SOURCE
DETAIL
MTCO2E

20. FUGITIVE GASES*
4,000 MTCO2E 1.9%
VEHICLES*
1,150 MTCO2E 0.6%
LEASED ACADEMIC BUILDINGS*
4,101 MTCO2E 2%
The 2015 inventory was audited
by the MIT Office of Treasury and
represents the second year of
comprehensive inventory
assessment for the Institute.
The total change in emissions
from 2014 was a reduction of
12,408 MTCO2e, or 6%.
* Some data is currently estimated for the
2015 inventory, including leased building
space, campus vehicles, and fugitive
gases. These categories will be updated at
the end of the calendar year, to accurately
reflect total emissions for the GHG
inventory which is calculated based on
fiscal year.
GHG Inventory
FY15 Inventory
TOTAL 2015
201,020 MTCO2E
MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
INVENTORY
2015 MAIN CATEGORIES
METRICTONSCO2E
TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION LOSSES
(3,609)
LEASED BUILDINGS (ALL SOURCES) (4,101)*
#2 FUEL OIL (6,892)
#6 FUEL OIL (14,746)
ELECTRICITY (36,494)
NATURAL GAS (130,027)
BUILDING
FUEL
SOURCE
DETAIL
* Estimated. The GHG inventory will be updated in early 2016 when final data for these categories become available
MIT Owned
Buildings,
191,768 ,
95%
MTCO2E

21. MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISISONS
INVENTORY
HISTORICAL EMISSIONS FROM BUILDINGS ONLY
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
METRICTONSCO2E
MMBTU
ENERGY USE
BUILDINGS ONLY
ANNUAL EMISSIONS
BUILDINGS ONLY
PRE-COGEN
1990-1996
COGENERATION
1996-2002
GROWTH
2002-2006
EFFICIENCY
2006-2014
CLIMATE LEADERSHIP
2015
MIT has non-audited greenhouse gas data for buildings dating back to 1990. From this data, emissions can be roughly categorized into four phases of
development from 1990 to the present: Pre-Cogeneration, Cogeneration, Campus Growth, and Efficiency. The next phase of MIT’s greenhouse gas
management is Climate Leadership, beginning with the first Institutional GHG reduction goal of at least 32% by 2030 below 2014 levels being set in
2015, and the release of the first comprehensive and audited institutional GHG inventories for 2014 and 2015.
Note that this graphic shows trends only for emissions from buildings.
Beginning in 2014, MIT also measures emissions from fugitive gases and campus vehicle use which are omitted from this figure.
AUDITED EMISSIONS DATA
STARTS 2014

22. MIT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISISONS
PROJECTION TO MEET CLIMATE GOAL
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2015
2014BASELINE
YEAR
2030
GOAL
THE NEXT PHASE OF ACTION FOR MIT
CREATING A CLIMATE ACTION PLAN TO REACH
THE 32 PERCENT REDUCTION GOAL
POTENTIAL REDUCTION STRATEGIES

23. may 9.2016
Joe Higgins
Director, Infrastructure
Business Ops, Office of Exec.
VP & Treasurer
32 percent and beyond:
MIT’s role in meeting local
and global climate goals

24. Program
Growth
10%
32%
Path to exceed 2030 goal
2014
Baseline
204,000
2030
Meet
Goal
2030
Exceed
Goal
Central
Utility
Plant (CUP)
Enhancements
Efficiency
Gains in
Buildings*
10%
8 -12%
On-Site
Solar
Large Scale
Off-Site
Renewables
15-17%
Large Scale
Off-Site
Renewables
or Other
18-20%
Metric
Tones
CO2e
50%
32% and beyond…
*Efficiency gains in buildings include ongoing and planned infrastructure renewal, recommissioning,
operations improvements, Efficiency Forward Program, green labs and institute-wide sustainability efforts
Grow
Renewables
Production
Efficiency
Reduce
Demand
1 2 3
1-3%
18%

25. may 9.2016
MIT’s role in
meeting local
and global
climate goals
discussion & questions