1. MBA Government and Conventional Indexes
4/21/2010
3000 800
Conforming and Government Apps Rally
Conventional apps jump 14.0% while Government activity leaps 12.9%
Recovery broad based, but only relative to drops last week 700
2500
600
Conventional App Index
2000
Government App Index
500
1500 400
300
1000
200
500
100
0 0
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn.
Convent Govt

2. MBA Refi Index and Rates
4/21/2010
9.0 10000
Six week drop in Refi activity reversed on rate decline
Activity well below top of October-March range, while rates are near 9000
8.0 the average for the period
8000
This week:
30-yr fixed rate sinks 14 bp
7000
7.0 ARM rate slides 7 bp
Refis surge 15.8%
6000
Refi Index
Mtg Rate
6.0 5000
4000
5.0
3000
2000
4.0
1000
3.0 0
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn.
1yr ARM 30 yr FRM REFI Index

3. MBA Refi Index vs. 30 yr Rate
4/21/2010
8,000
Activity follows model higher as rates fall
Still near flat part of curve - Should rates fall below 5%, expect an increase in
7,000
activity
2H04-2008
6,000 Current
2009 YTD
Poly. (2H04-2008)
5,000 Poly. (2009 YTD)
Refi Index
y = 2,254.7902 x2 - 28,806.1220 x + 93,557.0458
4,000
R2 = 0.6636
3,000
2,000
Current Point
y = 8,812.8280 x2 - 93,378.5547 x + 249,456.8401
1,000 R2 = 0.7150
Data from 7/02/2004
-
4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00
30 yr Mortgage Rate Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn,

4. MBA Purchase Index and Rates
4/21/2010
9.0 550
Purchase activity climbs, but only reverses last week's drop
Expected to see higher apps as end of home buyer tax credit program nears
500
8.0
450
7.0
400
Index
Rate
6.0 350
300
5.0
This Week:
30 yr rates slide 14 bp
250
ARM rates sink 7 bp
Apps jump 10.1%
4.0
Prior Tax Credit 200
New Tax Credit
3.0 150
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
1yr ARM 30 yr FRM Purch Index Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn.

5. MBA Purchase Index vs. 30 yr Rate
4/21/2010
1,000
Purchases pick up on rate drop, tax credit
900 Activity still below regression line
What happens when the tax credit expires in a couple weeks?
800
y = - 51.6078 x2 + 582.3560 x - 1,208.7643
700 R2 = 0.0927
600
Purchase Index
500
400
300
200 2H04-2008
Current
2
Current Point y = 102.4449 x - 1,015.7327 x + 2,766.5328 2009 YTD
100 2
R = 0.0632 Poly. (2H04-2008)
Data from 7/02/2004 Poly. (2009 YTD)
-
4.50 5.00 5.50 6.00 6.50 7.00
30 yr Mortgage Rate
Source: Mortgage Bankers Assn,

6. Housing Starts, Building Permits and NAHB Index
90
2400 Housing Starts and Permits Soar; NAHB Sentiment at Highest Level
Since April 08 80
Is this a one-time spike due to better weather and impending tax credit expiration - or a
further sign of a housing recovery? The former until proven differently 70
1900
60
Thousands of Units
NAHB Index
50
1400
40
30
900 20
10
400 0
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Source: Dept of Commerce
Starts Permits NAHB Index NAHB