Current economic review unr

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Current economic review unr

  1. 1. Current Economic Review April 4, 2012 Brian Bonnenfant Project Manager Center for Regional Studies University of Nevada, Reno 784-1771 bonnen@unr.edu
  2. 2. 230,000 **Peak = 228,100 Emp Monthly Employment - Reno/Sparks MSA225,000 **Start of Great Recession Feb-12 Unemployment Rate: 12.2% Jan-12 Unemployment Rate: 13.0%220,000 Feb-11 Unemployment Rate: 13.5% (Not Seasonally-Adjusted)215,000210,000 **End of Great Recession205,000200,000 Jan-Dec 2010: Jan-Dec 2011: Jan-Dec 2006: Jan-Dec 2007: Jan-Dec 2008: Jan-Dec 2009: +5,900 +7,500 +13,300 +7,100 -7,000 -4,700 Employees Employees195,000 Employees Employees Employees Employees Feb10-Feb11: Feb11-Feb12: -100 -400190,000 February 2012 Total - 186,200185,000 (Year 2000 Level)180,000 Nov-08 Nov-11 Nov-06 Oct-07 Nov-07 Nov-09 Oct-10 Nov-10 Oct-11 Oct-06 Oct-08 Oct-09 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-11 Feb-06 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jan-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Jan-11 Feb-11 Jan-12 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 May-09 May-11 May-06 Sep-06 Apr-07 May-07 Sep-07 Apr-08 May-08 Sep-08 Sep-09 May-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Apr-06 Apr-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-11 Mar-06 Mar-09 Mar-10
  3. 3. -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 5,000 0Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07 Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08 Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09 Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10 Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11 Jul-11 Month Over Month Employment Change - Reno/Sparks MSAAug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12
  4. 4. Employment Decreases by Sector Between February 2011 & February 2012 - Reno MSALocal Government -1,000 -6.3%Construction -600 -7.4%Retail -500 -2.4%State Government -300 -2.9%Manufacturing -300 -2.7%Financial Activites -200 -2.3%Wholesale -200 -2.3%Education and Health Services -100 -0.5%Information -100 -4.5%Federal Government -100 -2.9% TOTAL -3,400
  5. 5. Employment Increases by Sector Between February 2011 & February 2012 - Reno MSALeisure & Hospitality 2,200 6.6%Professional & Business Services 600 2.6%Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities 100 0.8%Other Services 100 1.7% TOTAL 3,000
  6. 6. 35,000 Manufacturing Construction Transp. & Warehousing30,000 Retail Finance & Insur. Prof. & Tech. Services25,000 Educ. Services Health Care Casino Hotels Bars & Restaurants20,000 Government15,000 Employment by Industry10,000 Carson City & Douglas, Lyon, Storey, & Washoe Counties (Source: Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation QCEW data - 2011 represents 3Q total) 5,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  7. 7. 20.0% NEVADA15.0% CLARK10.0% WASHOE 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%-10.0% Percentage Change in Quarterly Taxable Sales (Year Over Year)-15.0%-20.0%-25.0% 1Q - 2000 1Q - 2001 1Q - 2003 1Q - 2004 1Q - 2006 1Q - 2007 1Q - 2008 1Q - 2009 1Q - 2010 1Q - 2011 1Q - 1998 1Q - 1999 1Q - 2002 1Q - 2005
  8. 8. -25.0% -15.0% -5.0% 5.0% 15.0% 25.0%1Q - 19981Q - 1999 NEVADA WASHOE1Q - 20001Q - 2001 CLARK BALANCE1Q - 20021Q - 20031Q - 2004 (Year Over Year)1Q - 20051Q - 2006 Percentage Change in Quarterly Taxable Sales1Q - 20071Q - 20081Q - 20091Q - 20101Q - 2011
  9. 9. 65.0%60.0% Taxable Sales - Balance of Counties55.0% Month Over Month % Ch. (excl. Clark & Washoe)50.0%45.0% % of States Sales40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0%-10.0%-15.0%-20.0% Nov-10 Nov-11 Oct-10 Oct-11 Jan-10 Feb-10 Aug-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Jul-10 May-10 Apr-10 Sep-10 Apr-11 May-11 Sep-11 Mar-10 Mar-11
  10. 10. 440,000 Washoe County Population Estimates (2000-2010) 421,407420,000 421,593 417,379400,000380,000360,000 341,935340,000 341,415 Washoe County (State Demographer)320,000 Washoe County (Census Bureau)300,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  11. 11. 5.0% Percent Change in Population & School Enrollment - Washoe County4.0%3.0%2.0% WCSD Enrollment1.0% State Demographer Pop Census Pop0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011-1.0%-2.0%
  12. 12. 25,000 Washoe County In & Out-Migration - IRS Tax Return Exemptions 20,000 15,000 In-Migration Out-Migration 10,000 Net Migration 5,000 02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -5,000
  13. 13. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11 New Monthly Home Foreclosures & Notice of Defaults - Washoe CountyNov-11Dec-11 ForeclosuresJan-12 Notice of DefaultFeb-12
  14. 14. $270,000 Median Sales Price of Short-Sales, Bank-Owned Resales, & Non-$260,000 Distressed Sales$250,000 Washoe County (Single-Family Homes)$240,000$230,000$220,000$210,000$200,000$190,000$180,000$170,000$160,000$150,000$140,000$130,000$120,000$110,000 Median Sale Price: Short Sale, MLS Median Sale Price: Bank Owned, MLS$100,000 Median Sale Price: Non-Distressed, MLS $90,000 Oct-09 Dec-11 Oct-10 Dec-10 Oct-11 Dec-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Jul-09 Mar-10 Apr-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Feb-12 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Jun-11 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-09 Nov-11 May-09 May-10 February 2012 Short Sales: 29% of All Sales 23% are Cash Sales Bank Owned: 42% of All Sales 33% are Cash Sales Non-Distressed: 29% of All Sales 21% are Cash Sales All Single-Family Homes: ($145,000) 27% are Cash Sales
  15. 15. $400,000 Annual Change Quarterly Change 4Q10-4Q11: -11.5% 1Q11: -5.9% $350,000 2Q11: -5.6%$350,000 3Q11: -0.3% 1990-2001 = 0.97% average appreciation rate per quarter (blue trendline) 4Q11: -0.1%$300,000 $245,950 Peak (4Q05): $155,031 "Bubble"$250,000$200,000 $150,390 $194,969$150,000 G re a t e r R e no -S pa rk s M e dia n P ric e 1% Q u a rt e rly A p pre c ia t io n R a t e$100,000 1q01 2q01 1q02 2q02 3q02 4q02 2q03 3q03 4q03 3q04 4q04 1q05 3q05 4q05 1q06 2q06 1q07 2q07 3q07 4q07 1q08 2q08 3q08 4q08 3q09 4q09 1q10 2q10 4q10 1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 3q01 4q01 1q03 1q04 2q04 2q05 3q06 4q06 1q09 2q09 3q10
  16. 16. $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $- Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul- 08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul- 09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09North UrbanNorth ValleysOld Southeast Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Median Listing Price per Square FootSparks Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10New Southwest Jan-11Spanish Springs Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11Old SouthwestNew SoutheastNew Northwest Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
  17. 17. 140 $400,000 131 128 New Single-Family Home Sales & Median Values - Washoe County 117 Peak: (Nov-05) 315 Sales $350,000 120 Number o f New Ho me S ales 114 111 112 M edian New Ho me S ales P ric e Peak: (Feb-06) $423,311 102 $300,000 100 Median New Home Sales Price 91Number of New Home Sales $250,000 81 80 77 73 69 67 66 $200,000 64 64 65 61 61 58 60 54 48 49 49 $150,000 47 47 44 44 45 42 43 40 40 40 39 38 40 36 32 33 32 29 $100,000 27 28 27 25 25 23 22 21 19 20 $50,000 2008: 2009: 2010: 2011: 1,063 sales (89/month) 739 sales (62/month) 527 sales (44/month) 427 sales (36/month) 0 $0

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