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18th WORLD EDITORS FORUM63rd WORLD NEWSPAPER CONGRESSTitel: World Press Trends 2011Speaker: Christoph Riess
Christoph RiessWORLD PRESS TRENDS 2011                  www.wan-ifra.org
World Press Trends – The Book  Since 1988  Value over volume  Focus on key numbers in key markets  New office-based data c...
MEDIA                       ECONOMICAL                        NEWSPAPERCONSUMPTION                 DEVELOPMENT            ...
MEDIA CONSUMPTIONSHIFTIs it all Internet now?                          © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 5
Media Consumption 2010 (minutes per day)                                                  Internet      800               ...
Internet      Media Consumption Trend (minutes per day)                                                                   ...
ECONOMICALDEVELOPMENTAre we back on track?                        © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 8
GDP Growth            30%            20%            10%              0%           -10%                                    ...
Economic reality… decoupling (Variation in %)     14     12     10       8       6       4       2       0           1981 ...
NEWSPAPERCIRCULATIONIs it only decline?                      © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 11
Global Circulation (paid daily in Mil.)                                538         540       550                          ...
Circulation Trends (paid daily)                                              Variation 2006-10       20%                  ...
Global Number of Titles (paid daily)                                                                      14619           ...
Number of Titles Trend (paid daily)              15%                                               Variation 2006-10      ...
Free Newspapers – The Hype is over          250                                                                  50       ...
Market Share of Paid vs. Free Dailies (2010)   100%     90%     80%     70%     60%     50%     40%     30%     20%     10...
HitList – The World’s Top Ten Newspapers (copies k)           12000           10000                                       ...
Readership - Countries Hitlist (paid dailies 2010)     100%        96%      95%                   92%      90%      85%   ...
Average newspaper sales (paid dailies 2010)                                 500        461  Average circulation (000’s)   ...
ADVERTISINGEXPENDITURES BY MEDIAWhere is the money going?                            © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 21
Global Advertising Expenditure by Media (Bil. US $)                           180                                         ...
Global Advertising by Media                                    Variation 2007-10         80%                              ...
Global Advertising Trend „Big Three“                                                        31%             35%           ...
Global Advertising of Share by Region (in Bil. US$)                                                                       ...
NEWSPAPERREVENUEIs it content paid, advertising paid or digital revenue?                                                  ...
Global Newspaper Advertising (in Bil. US$) 140                 127               127                                      ...
Newspaper Advertising Trends                 30%                                                                          ...
Circulation vs. Advertising 2010 (regional comparisons)                        Circulation                                ...
Global Newspaper Revenue by Source US $(million)                                                         © 2011 WAN-IFRA |...
INTERNET VERSUSMOBILEWill tablets be our saviour?                               © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 31
Internet vs. Mobile Phone                                                     Hybrid                                      ...
Penetration Mobile vs. Internet  140%                                                    Penetration Mobile 2010 (%)      ...
Our industry challenge is engagement                                  Print                  DigitalVisits per reader/user...
Audience reality (in Bil. users)                             7                             6                             5...
Social Media                                               Search engines                                               (G...
Summary• Circulation continues to rise in the East   • Social media are changing the concept  and decline in the West     ...
THANK YOU FORYOUR ATTENTION.Christoph Riess                WAN-IFRA Darmstadt         WAN-IFRA ParisCEO WAN-IFRA          ...
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World Newspaper Congress 11, World Editors Forum 11, World Press Trends 2011, Christoph Riess

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World Newspaper Congress 11, World Editors Forum 11, World Press Trends 2011, Christoph Riess

  1. 1. 18th WORLD EDITORS FORUM63rd WORLD NEWSPAPER CONGRESSTitel: World Press Trends 2011Speaker: Christoph Riess
  2. 2. Christoph RiessWORLD PRESS TRENDS 2011 www.wan-ifra.org
  3. 3. World Press Trends – The Book Since 1988 Value over volume Focus on key numbers in key markets New office-based data collection Ongoing up-dating instead of a sprint Electronic database access any time New presentation Insights over numbers © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 3
  4. 4. MEDIA ECONOMICAL NEWSPAPERCONSUMPTION DEVELOPMENT CIRCULATION ANDSHIFT Are we back on track? NUMBER OF TITLESIs it all Internet now? Is it only decline?ADVERTISING NEWSPAPER INTERNET VERSUSEXPENDITURES REVENUE MOBILEBY MEDIA Is it content paid, advertising Will tablets be our saviour?Where is the money going? paid or digital revenue? © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 4
  5. 5. MEDIA CONSUMPTIONSHIFTIs it all Internet now? © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 5
  6. 6. Media Consumption 2010 (minutes per day) Internet 800 Television Radio Magazines 700 All Newspapers 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 SA ia n l na a ia zi pa si d tr ra © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 6 hi U In us us Ja B C R ASource: World Press Trends
  7. 7. Internet Media Consumption Trend (minutes per day) Television Brasil Radio 500 Magazines 400 All newspapers 300 Germany 200 600 100 500 0 400 06 07 08 09 10 20 20 20 20 20 300 Canada 200 500 100 400 0 06 07 08 09 10 300 20 20 20 20 20 200 100 0 © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 7 06 07 08 09 10 20 20 20 20 20Source: World Press Trends
  8. 8. ECONOMICALDEVELOPMENTAre we back on track? © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 8
  9. 9. GDP Growth 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% GDP Variation 2008-09 in % -20% GDP Variation 2009-10 in % GDP Variation 2010-11 in % -30% SA ia l na a y zi si an d ra hi U us In m B C R er G © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 9Source: Zenith Optimedia
  10. 10. Economic reality… decoupling (Variation in %) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 -2 -4 -6 GPD Advertising New spapers © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 10Source: Zenith Optimedia Need to
  11. 11. NEWSPAPERCIRCULATIONIs it only decline? © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 11
  12. 12. Global Circulation (paid daily in Mil.) 538 540 550 528 518 519 500 450 400 06 07 08 09 10 20 20 20 20 20 © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 12Source: WPT
  13. 13. Circulation Trends (paid daily) Variation 2006-10 20% Variation 2009-10 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% a fic a e e ic ic p op ci ro er er ur Pa Am Eu m rE A a rn si tin te th A te s or La Ea es N W r.& © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 13 t en CSource: WPT
  14. 14. Global Number of Titles (paid daily) 14619 1485315000 14022 13223 135251400013000120001100010000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 06 07 08 09 10 20 20 20 20 20 © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 14Source: WPT
  15. 15. Number of Titles Trend (paid daily) 15% Variation 2006-10 Variation 2009-10 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% c A a a e ifi pe E ic ic op ac M ro er er ur P m m Eu E a A A si n rn th tin er A te or st La es N Ea W l& ra © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 15 t enSource: WPT C
  16. 16. Free Newspapers – The Hype is over 250 50 45 200 40 35 C o p ies M il. 150 30T itles 25 100 20 15 50 10 5 0 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Titles Copies © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 16Source: WPT
  17. 17. Market Share of Paid vs. Free Dailies (2010) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% SA ly ia n l na ce ia en s zi pa Ita nd d tr ra hi an U ed In us Ja B rla C Fr Sw A he Free et N Paid © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 17Source: WPT
  18. 18. HitList – The World’s Top Ten Newspapers (copies k) 12000 10000 Circulation 2010 Circulation 2009 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 an n n xi ia n n n ild i bu bu ke bu bu ao Su nd gr B ik m m im Xi im Ja fI e N hi hi Th O Sh o Sh ik e iS iS ka Th es in hi ri ch ch an m ai iu sa ni ni C D Ti m A hu ai Yo e © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 18 e M Th C ThSource World Press Trends. National Newspaper Associations.
  19. 19. Readership - Countries Hitlist (paid dailies 2010) 100% 96% 95% 92% 90% 85% 82% 82% 82% 80% 80% 78% 80% 78% 75% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% n ia d d ng e en nd ay rg pa or an an tr bu rw Ko ed la us ap Ja nl el er No Sw m Ic Fi A ng ng it z xe Si Ho Sw Lu © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 19 Source: WPT
  20. 20. Average newspaper sales (paid dailies 2010) 500 461 Average circulation (000’s) 450 400 350 300 250 200 162 149 150 111 100 55 32 25 50 16 13 11 0 a a A UK a ay il n y a si tri in az di an US pa rw s s Ch In Br Ru m Ja Au No er G World-wide, average circulation is 17,000 copies © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 20Source: WPT
  21. 21. ADVERTISINGEXPENDITURES BY MEDIAWhere is the money going? © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 21
  22. 22. Global Advertising Expenditure by Media (Bil. US $) 180 Television 180 New spaper 160 Internet 140 Magazines 94 120 Radio 100 62 80 43 32 60 40 20 0 2010 © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 22Source: Zenith Optimedia
  23. 23. Global Advertising by Media Variation 2007-10 80% Variation 2010-13 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% l o ut nt ita n i ad O o i Pr ig si R D vi le Te © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 23Source: KPMG
  24. 24. Global Advertising Trend „Big Three“ 31% 35% 30% 22% 25% 19% 20% 13% 14% 15% 9% 11% 8% 6% 10% 3% 5% 0% -1% -5% -10% -9% e a a a p si ic ic ro A er er Eu m m New spapers Variation 2009-10 A A th th Internet Variation 2009-10 or u So N TV Variation 2009-10 © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 24Source: Zenith Optimedia
  25. 25. Global Advertising of Share by Region (in Bil. US$) Western Europe 40 35 30 25 USA 2045 1540 1035 530 025 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 202015 Asia Pacific10 50 5 45 40 0 35 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 30 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 25 20 15 10 5 0 Newspapers 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Internet TV © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 25Source: Zenith Optimedia
  26. 26. NEWSPAPERREVENUEIs it content paid, advertising paid or digital revenue? © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 26
  27. 27. Global Newspaper Advertising (in Bil. US$) 140 127 127 120 120 99 97 95 94 93 100 80 60 40 20 - 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 27Source: Zenith Optimedia
  28. 28. Newspaper Advertising Trends 30% 24% 20% 8% 10% 6% 3% 0% -1% -2% -2% -10% -9% -9% -20% -20% -23% -30% -40% Variation 06/10 -41% Variation 09/10 -50% c l a ca ta e ifi pe ic op To i ac ro er er ur P m m Eu E a A A si n rn th t in er A te or st La es N Ea W l& ra © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 28 t enSource: Zenith Optimedia C
  29. 29. Circulation vs. Advertising 2010 (regional comparisons) Circulation Advertising Volume Revenue 2% 4% 10% 1% 3% 26% 40% 21% 63% EMEA Latin America North America 30% Europe Asia Pacific © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 29Source: WP.T. Zenith Optimedia
  30. 30. Global Newspaper Revenue by Source US $(million) © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 30Source PwC.
  31. 31. INTERNET VERSUSMOBILEWill tablets be our saviour? © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 31
  32. 32. Internet vs. Mobile Phone Hybrid Tablets Hybrid Paid but with Ads Advertising model well Advertising No ads please established, but revenue goes to search machines Mobile content payment Internet content payment Content paid model established (monthly model still to be established payment, prepay, APPS) Apple, Mobile phone New players Google, Bing, Yahoo companies © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 32
  33. 33. Penetration Mobile vs. Internet 140% Penetration Mobile 2010 (%) Penetration Internet 2010 (%) 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% SA na a a a e il di z tri nc si ra hi U In us us a B C Fr R A © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 33Source: ITU
  34. 34. Our industry challenge is engagement Print DigitalVisits per reader/user 15 of 24 Per month 8.6 Per monthMinutes per visit 25 4.1Pages per Visit 40 11.4Unique visitors % of readers 100 30 © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 34Source: CHISHOLM, COmscore
  35. 35. Audience reality (in Bil. users) 7 6 5 4 2G Ever 3 readers Beijing Olympics 2 Average 1 Ever daily readers 3G 0 ak ily n n s s er er tio tio da pe us rib ip la ge g cr pu sc et in ra bs ew Po ub rn ve su te ls vi ra In d el n an pe sio /C db pa i le vi le oa ob ws Te br M Ne d © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 35 xe FiSource: CHISHOLM, COmscore
  36. 36. Social Media Search engines (Google, Bing) nalism Citiz en jour e.org) voic esonlin (global Online news aggregators (Digg and NetVibes) actors: Mob ile news t.com) s Ma il: nypos(news a ublishersOnline news p ort.com)(publishing-rep Social Media (Twitter, Facebook) © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 36
  37. 37. Summary• Circulation continues to rise in the East • Social media are changing the concept and decline in the West and process of content gathering and dissemination• Number of titles is consolidating • Multi-directional instead of linear• The main decline is in free dailies. For frees, the hype is over • Social media revenue models remain hard to find• For advertisers, newspapers are more time efficient and effective • Constantly updated news (monitoring, distilling and repacking information)• Newspapers reach more people than the internet • The new digital business is not the traditional newspaper business• Digital revenues are not compensating for lost print revenues © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 37
  38. 38. THANK YOU FORYOUR ATTENTION.Christoph Riess WAN-IFRA Darmstadt WAN-IFRA ParisCEO WAN-IFRA Washingtonplatz 1 96 bis rue Beaubourgchristoph.riess@wan-ifra.org 64287 Darmstadt, Germany 75003 Paris, FranceTel. +49.6151.733-790 Tel. +49.6151.733-6 Tel. +33.147.4285-00 © 2011 WAN-IFRA | 38

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