The Chicago Initiative on Global Agricultural Development - Report Release Symposium February 25, 2009

1. Commentary: Hunger Reduction with
Agricultural R&D and Policy Change
Joachim von Braun
International Food Policy Research Institute
The Chicago Initiative on Global Agricultural
Development - Report Release Symposium
February 25, 2009

2. RECOMMENDATIONS: RENEWING ATTENTION TO
AGRICULTURE IN U.S. DEVELOPMENT POLICY
1: Increase support for agricultural education and
extension at all levels in Sub-Saharan Africa and
South Asia.
2: Increase support for agricultural research in
Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.
3: Increase support for rural and agricultural
infrastructure, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa.
4: Improve the national and international
institutions that deliver agricultural development
assistance.
5: Improve U.S. policies currently seen as harmful to
agricultural development abroad.
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009

3. Food prices: higher levels and the spike
800 Price spike
Corn Wheat Rice
600
US$/ton
400
200
0
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: IFPRI, Data from FAO 2009 and IMF 2009.

4. Food protests and food prices
800 Maize 25
700 Wheat
Rice 20
600
Riots (right)
500
# of riots
15
US$/ton
400
300 10
200
5
100
0 0
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jun-08
Aug-07
Sep-07
Oct-07
Nov-07
Dec-07
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Apr-08
Feb-08
Mar-08
May-08
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: J. von Braun based on data from FAO 2009 and news reports.

5. Further stress for agriculture and the poor:
Financial crisis and depression
• Less capital for agriculture now
• Higher debt burden for farmers who invested in
agriculture expansion
• Reduced employment and wages of unskilled
workers
• Reduced remittances
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009

6. Actions for smallholder agriculture
are central !
1. Access to finance and inputs
(rural banks and micro-finance, seeds, fertilizer,
animal feed, veterinary drugs)
2. Investment in rural infrastructure
(e.g. rural roads, electrification, irrigation)
3. Agricultural productivity (R&D, extension,
education)
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009

7. RECOMMENDATION 2: Increase support for agricultural
research in Sub-Sahara Africa and South Asia
a. Provide greater external support for agricultural scientists
working in the national agricultural research systems.
b. Provide greater support to agricultural research conducted
at the international centers of the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research
c. Provide greater support for collaborative research between
scientists from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia and
scientists at U.S. universities
d. Create a competitive award fund to provide an incentive for
high impact agricultural innovations to help poor farmers
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009

8. Central for long-term agric. growth:
Double agric. R&D to impact poverty
R&D allocation  in # of + Agr. output
(mil. 2005 $) poor (mil.) growth (% pts.)
2008* 2013 2008-2020 2008-2020
SSA 608 2,913 -143.8 2.8
S Asia 908 3,111 -124.6 2.4
Devel.ing
World 4,975 9,951 -282.1 1.1
CGIAR investment to rise from US$0.5 to US$1.0
billion as part of this expansion
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: von Braun, Shenggen Fan, et al. 2008.

9. 1b. CGIAR “Best Bets”
Food, Environment, Policy for People
Approach (mil $) mil ppl
Revitalizing yield growth in intensive cereal systems of Asia 150 3,000
Ensuring productive & resilient small-scale fisheries 73.5 32
Controlling wheat rust 37.5 2,900
Developing vaccine for East Coast Fever in cattle 10.5 32
Developing drought-tolerant maize for Africa 100 320
Scaling up biofortification 125 672
Increasing CO2 sequestration & improving forest livelihoods 45 48
Conducting climate change & adaptation research 127.5 1,200
Combining organic & inorganic nutrients for crop productivity 55 400
Promoting sustainable groundwater use 24 261
Enhancing germplasm exchange 15 Global
Improving market information & value chains 10.5 45
Including women in extension & innovation 30 200
Exploiting agriculture-health links to benefit the poor 75 Global
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009

10. 16 mln more malnourished children with
recession and low investment
Non-recession 275
250
Maize price
Same-investment (left ) 250
200 Low-investment
225
US$/ton
150
200
100 Malnourished children (right)
175
Million
50 150
0 125
2005 2010 2015 2020
Recession scenarios with and without agric.
investment action
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: von Braun, Rosegrant, IFPRI IMPACT, Oct. 2008.

11. The global food business chain –
involve all actors
Consumers
Agricultural Food
input processors Food
industry Farms and traders retailers
top 10: $55 bln Agricultural top 10: $426 bln top 10: $1,042
value added: bln
• Syngenta $1,674 bln • Nestle
• Monsanto • Cargill • Wal-Mart
$4,000 bln
• Bayer C No. of farms: • Unilever • Carrefour
• Dupont N ca. 450 mln • Tesco
• ADM
• Mosaic • Bunge • Metro G
Size distr.
• Kroger
>100 ha: 0.5%
< 2 ha: 85%
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009
Source: von Braun 2008, updated.

12. Major pledges and investments
to address the food crisis (2008)
Donor organization/country Pledge (bil.$) Month
World Bank 1.2 May
EU (EC & national) 5+ May-July
USA 5 June
Increase in public budgets on agric. and social protection
bil. $US % change
China 23 +27%
India 6 +24%
Donors’ investment components too small
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009 Source: IFPRI, compiled from news sources and government budgets.

13. What and how of US co-leadership –
government , private, foundations, NGOs
US leadership in agricultural development with
partnership
1. China, India, Africa, LAC, EU as partners
2. UN “Global Partnership on Agriculture and Food
Security”
3. Shape the G8 and G20 agendas on food security
in 2009
Joachim von Braun, IFPRI, February 2009