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Hawaii payroll employment and change                                                                                                                Hawaii payroll employment and change


                Thousands, s.a. (log scale)                                                                       Thousands, s.a.                                                                                                                                             NBER recessions shaded
          640

                                                                                                             4                                                                                                        4                                                                                      .4
          620




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Thousands, s.a.
          600                                                                                                0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Millions, s.a.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0                                                                                      .0
          580
                                                                                                             -4

          560                                                                                                                                                                                                         -4                                                                                     -.4

                                                                                    NBER recessions shaded   -8                                                                                                                                     U.S. (right)
          540                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Hawaii (left)
                 00                                           02     04        06       08         10             90          95          00   05              10                                                     -8                                                                                     -.8

                    Total payroll employment, s.a. (jobs)
                                              s.a.                                                                     Monthly employment change (jobs)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            00         02            04          06             08               10

                                                                                                                                                    Slide copyright TZ Economics                                                                                                                                   Slide copyright TZ Economics


            Source: Hawaii DLIR, DBEDT; seasonal adjustment by TZE                                                                                                    1              Source: U.S. BLS (via FRB St. Louis), Hawaii DLIR, DBEDT; seasonal adjustment of Hawaii data by TZE                                                   2




                                                                                                                   Hawaii total visitor arrivals                                                                                                               Hawaii visitor arrivals by origin


                                                                          NBER recessions shaded                               Lehman                                                    Thousands, s.a., (log scale)                                                 Thousands, s.a., (log scale)
                                                                   640                                                         shutdown
                                                                                                                                                                                   500                                                                           220
                      Monthly in thousands, s.a., log scale




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 200
                                                                   600                                                                                                             450                                                                                             9/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 180
                                                                   560                                                                                                             400                                                                           160

                                                                   520                                                                                                                                                                                           140
                                                                                                                                                                                   350

                                                                   480                                                                                                                                                                                           120
                                                                                                                  Aloha/ATA                                                                                                                                                               SARS
                                                                                                                  shutdowns                                                        300                                                                                                                                   H1N1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NBER recessions shaded
                                                                   440                                                                                                                                                                                           100
                                                                                                                                                                                           00         02                   04    06        08       10                   00          02          04     06         08                 10

                                                                   400                                                                                                                                                     Domestic                                                              International
                                                                          00           02           04        06              08          10
                                                                                                                                                    Slide copyright TZ Economics                                                                                                                                   Slide copyright TZ Economics


            Source: Hawaii DBEDT, Hawaii Tourism Authority; seasonal adjustment by TZE                                                                                3              Source: Hawaii DBEDT, Hawaii Tourism Authority; seasonal adjustment by TZE                                                                            4




Slides copyright TZ Economics 2009
Hawaii real private building permit values                                                                                                                                     Hawaii real private building permit values

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               800
                Million 2009$, s.a., (log scale)                                                                             Million 2009%, s.a., (log scale)

          320                                                                                                            320




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Million 2009$, s.a., (log scale)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               400
          160                                                                                                            160



           80                                                                                                             80
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               200
           40                                                                                                             40


                                                                                               NBER recessions shaded
           20                                                                                                             20                                                                                                                                   100
                90    92                                   94          96       98   00   02     04   06    08   10            90   92   94    96   98    00    02   04     06     08     10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        NBER recessions shaded

                                                                        New residential                                         Nonresidential incl. additions/alterations
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     90      92     94        96    98    00    02   04   06   08   10

                                                                                                                                                                          Slide copyright TZ Economics                                                                                                                                   Slide copyright TZ Economics


            Source: Hawaii DBEDT, U.S. Bureau of the Census; deflation using Census cost index, seasonal adjustment by TZE                                                                  5            Source: Hawaii DBEDT, U.S. Bureau of the Census; deflation using Census cost index, seasonal adjustment by TZE                                    6




                                                                                                       Hawaii real contracting (through 2009)                                                                                                                                          Hawaii real retail sales (through 2009)

                                                                            8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2.8
                           Monthly, billion 2009$, s.a., (log scale)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Monthly, billion 2009$, s.a., (log scale)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2.4
                                                                            4

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2.0



                                                                            2                                                                                                                                                                                 1.6

                                                                                     NBER recessions shaded                                                                                                                                                          NBER recessions shaded


                                                                                     80          85           90        95          00         05          10                                                                                                       90 92         94     96        98    00    02   04 06   08   10
                                                                                                                                                                          Slide copyright TZ Economics                                                                                                                                   Slide copyright TZ Economics


            Source: Hawaii DoTax, U.S. Bureau of the Census; deflation using Census cost index, seasonal adjustment by TZE                                                                  7            Source: Hawaii DoTax, U.S. BLS; deflation using U.S. CPI-U, seasonal adjustment by TZE                                                            8




Slides copyright TZ Economics 2009

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Tze cor charts may 2010

  • 1. Hawaii payroll employment and change Hawaii payroll employment and change Thousands, s.a. (log scale) Thousands, s.a. NBER recessions shaded 640 4 4 .4 620 Thousands, s.a. 600 0 Millions, s.a. 0 .0 580 -4 560 -4 -.4 NBER recessions shaded -8 U.S. (right) 540 Hawaii (left) 00 02 04 06 08 10 90 95 00 05 10 -8 -.8 Total payroll employment, s.a. (jobs) s.a. Monthly employment change (jobs) 00 02 04 06 08 10 Slide copyright TZ Economics Slide copyright TZ Economics Source: Hawaii DLIR, DBEDT; seasonal adjustment by TZE 1 Source: U.S. BLS (via FRB St. Louis), Hawaii DLIR, DBEDT; seasonal adjustment of Hawaii data by TZE 2 Hawaii total visitor arrivals Hawaii visitor arrivals by origin NBER recessions shaded Lehman Thousands, s.a., (log scale) Thousands, s.a., (log scale) 640 shutdown 500 220 Monthly in thousands, s.a., log scale 200 600 450 9/11 180 560 400 160 520 140 350 480 120 Aloha/ATA SARS shutdowns 300 H1N1 NBER recessions shaded 440 100 00 02 04 06 08 10 00 02 04 06 08 10 400 Domestic International 00 02 04 06 08 10 Slide copyright TZ Economics Slide copyright TZ Economics Source: Hawaii DBEDT, Hawaii Tourism Authority; seasonal adjustment by TZE 3 Source: Hawaii DBEDT, Hawaii Tourism Authority; seasonal adjustment by TZE 4 Slides copyright TZ Economics 2009
  • 2. Hawaii real private building permit values Hawaii real private building permit values 800 Million 2009$, s.a., (log scale) Million 2009%, s.a., (log scale) 320 320 Million 2009$, s.a., (log scale) 400 160 160 80 80 200 40 40 NBER recessions shaded 20 20 100 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 NBER recessions shaded New residential Nonresidential incl. additions/alterations 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Slide copyright TZ Economics Slide copyright TZ Economics Source: Hawaii DBEDT, U.S. Bureau of the Census; deflation using Census cost index, seasonal adjustment by TZE 5 Source: Hawaii DBEDT, U.S. Bureau of the Census; deflation using Census cost index, seasonal adjustment by TZE 6 Hawaii real contracting (through 2009) Hawaii real retail sales (through 2009) 8 2.8 Monthly, billion 2009$, s.a., (log scale) Monthly, billion 2009$, s.a., (log scale) 2.4 4 2.0 2 1.6 NBER recessions shaded NBER recessions shaded 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 Slide copyright TZ Economics Slide copyright TZ Economics Source: Hawaii DoTax, U.S. Bureau of the Census; deflation using Census cost index, seasonal adjustment by TZE 7 Source: Hawaii DoTax, U.S. BLS; deflation using U.S. CPI-U, seasonal adjustment by TZE 8 Slides copyright TZ Economics 2009