This document contains explanations and examples related to probability concepts. It includes 4 presentations: 1) Simple Probability, 2) Probabilities, 3) Determining Probabilities, and 4) Misconceptions. The presentations provide examples of calculating probabilities of events, common probability misconceptions, and explanations for why the misconceptions are incorrect.

1. Unit 19
Probability of one event
Presentation 1 Simple Probability
Presentation 2 Probabilities
Presentation 3 Determining Probabilities
Presentation 4 Misconceptions

2. Unit 19
Probability of one event
Simple Probability

3. Discuss which of the following statements best fit the statement
a.It will snow in New York tomorrow
b.It will rain in Kingston on Saturday
c.You will be late to school tomorrow
d.There will be a hurricane in Jamaica next week
e.Jamaica will win the Men’s 4 x 100m gold medal at the
London 2012 Olympic Games
Certain Very
Unlikely
Likely Unlikely Very
Unlikely
Impossible

4. Unit 19
Probability of one event
You have finished viewing:
Simple Probability
Return to front slide
Presentation 1 Simple Probability
Presentation 2 Probabilities
Presentation 3 Determining Probabilities
Presentation 4 Misconceptions

5. Unit 19
Probability of one event
Probabilities

6. a. If you toss a fair coin, what is the probability that it
lands HEADS up?
b. The probability that it will rain tomorrow is
What is the probability that is will not rain tomorrow?
c. The probability of the Air Jamaica plane arriving late
at Kingston is 0.15
What is the probability of it not being late?
d. A school basketball team play 20 matches a year.
The probability that they win any match is
i. What is the probability that they do not win a match?
ii. How many matches can they expect to win a year?
e. It has been estimated that the probability that a
person has blue eyes is
Is it true that the probability that a person has brown
eyes is ?
0∙85
12
NO

7. Unit 19
Probability of one event
You have finished viewing:
Probabilities
Return to front slide
Presentation 1 Simple Probability
Presentation 2 Probabilities
Presentation 3 Determining Probabilities
Presentation 4 Misconceptions

8. Unit 19
Probability of one event
Determining Probabilities

9. a) When you roll a fair dice, what is the probability of
obtaining:
a) A ‘five’,
b) An even number,
c) A ‘four’ or a ‘five’ ?
b) A bag of sweets contains 6 mints and 4 chocolates.
One sweet is taken at random from the bag. What is
the probability that this sweet is
a) A mint,
b) A chocolate ?

10. Unit 19
Probability of one event
You have finished viewing:
Determining Probabilities
Return to front slide
Presentation 1 Simple Probability
Presentation 2 Probabilities
Presentation 3 Determining Probabilities
Presentation 4 Misconceptions

11. Unit 19
Probability of one event
Misconceptions

12. The following statements are misconceptions, that is, they are not
correct. Explain why.
Misconception 1
I’ve spun an unbiased coin 3
times and got 3 Heads.
It is more likely to be Tails
than Heads if I spin it again.
Misconception 1
I’ve spun an unbiased coin 3
times and got 3 Heads.
It is more likely to be Tails
than Heads if I spin it again.
Misconception 2
Village United plays Boys Town
in the National Premier League.
Village United can win, lose or
draw, so the probability that
Village United will win is ⅓
Misconception 2
Village United plays Boys Town
in the National Premier League.
Village United can win, lose or
draw, so the probability that
Village United will win is ⅓
Misconception 4
It is harder to throw a six
than a three with a dice
Misconception 5
It is not worth choosing
the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6 in the Jamaica Lottery
as this is less likely to
occur than other
combinations
Misconception 5
It is not worth choosing
the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6 in the Jamaica Lottery
as this is less likely to
occur than other
combinations
Misconception 3
There are 3 red beads and 5
blue beads in a bag.
I pick a bead at random.
The probability that it is red is
Misconception 3
There are 3 red beads and 5
blue beads in a bag.
I pick a bead at random.
The probability that it is red is

13. The following statements are misconceptions, that is, they are not
correct. Explain why.
Misconception 6
My Grandfather smoked 20
cigarettes a day for 60 years and
lived to be 90, so smoking can’t be
bad for you
Misconception 8
In Treasure Beach it will either rain
or not rain tomorrow.
So the probability that it will rain is
0∙5.
Misconception 8
In Treasure Beach it will either rain
or not rain tomorrow.
So the probability that it will rain is
0∙5.
Misconception 7
I have thrown an unbiased
dice 12 times and not yet
got a six.
The probability of getting a
6 on my next throw is more
than
Misconception 7
I have thrown an unbiased
dice 12 times and not yet
got a six.
The probability of getting a
6 on my next throw is more
than

14. Unit 19
Probability of one event
You have finished viewing:
Misconceptions
Return to front slide
Presentation 1 Simple Probability
Presentation 2 Probabilities
Presentation 3 Determining Probabilities
Presentation 4 Misconceptions