The document discusses trends in daily rainfall erosivity in northeastern Spain from 1955 to 2006 and its relationship to atmospheric teleconnection patterns. It finds increasing rainfall erosivity at annual and seasonal scales over this time period. At the daily scale, there was an increase in high erosivity events and a decrease in low erosivity events. These trends are likely related to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean Oscillation, and Western Mediterranean Oscillation, which influence rainfall characteristics and erosivity. The phases of these teleconnection patterns impact average daily erosivity.
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Welcome to International Journal of Engineering Research and Development (IJERD)IJERD Editor
journal publishing, how to publish research paper, Call For research paper, international journal, publishing a paper, IJERD, journal of science and technology, how to get a research paper published, publishing a paper, publishing of journal, publishing of research paper, reserach and review articles, IJERD Journal, How to publish your research paper, publish research paper, open access engineering journal, Engineering journal, Mathemetics journal, Physics journal, Chemistry journal, Computer Engineering, Computer Science journal, how to submit your paper, peer reviw journal, indexed journal, reserach and review articles, engineering journal, www.ijerd.com, research journals,
yahoo journals, bing journals, International Journal of Engineering Research and Development, google journals, hard copy of journal
Metastatistical Extreme Value distributionsRiccardo Rigon
Marco Marani and coworkers rethink the estreme value concepts, observinfg that Pearson's distributions are obtained as a limit of an infinite number of events. He proposed intermediate distribution, when the number of observations is limited. He, they, called these distribution metastistical. This is, I think new insight in old stuff. Pretty much necessary though.
In recent years we witnessed a rapid growth of the weather derivatives market.
These derivatives are used to hedge energy contracts and distribute weather
risk. While most derivative markets are complete and contingent climes
replications are standard procedure, this special market is incomplete, and
therefore modeling the weather is a more appropriate approach to pricing. In
this work, we base our modeling on a widely accepted physical approach. We
base our analysis on Navier-Stokes equations applied to a thin atmosphere as
presented by Lorentz 1962. This modeling is considered by meteorologists a
“very-long-weather” prediction, allowing for accurate and robust
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outperform the standard approach to weather derivative pricing.In recent years we witnessed a rapid growth of the weather deriv
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Presentation by Jose Molina, Seminario Internacional Avances en la Planificación del Recurso Hidrológico y Contaminación en Suelos y Aguas. Universidad Nacional de Colombia – Palmira, Julio 23-25, 2014
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Trends in daily rainfall erosivity in relation with NAO, MO and WeMO for Spain, 1955-2006
1. Trends in daily rainfall erosivity in relation with NAO,
MO and WeMO for NE Spain, during the period
1955-2006.
Marta Angulo-Martinez
PhD student
Estación Experimental Aula Dei-CSIC,
Zaragoza, España
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012
2. Outline
Introduction:
- What’s rainfall erosivity?
- How to measure it
- Database creation
- Study area
Trends in rainfall erosivity at NE Spain, 1955-2006
Analysis of the relationship between some teleconnection
patterns and rainfall erosivity
Influence of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns
evolution in explaining rainfall erosivity trends
Conclusions
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
3. The rainfall erosivity factor in soil erosion (EI)
Measures the rainfall energy or the ability of rainfall to erode soil.
Climate dynamics and
rainfall genetic mechanisms
Splash erosion & runoff erosion
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
4. Measuring and modelling rainfall erosivity
Where:
Empirical models: vr = Rainfall volume;
Universal Equation for Soil Erosion (R)USLE I30 = Maximum intensity in 30 min;
er = Unit rainfall energy.
m
1 n j o
R = ∑∑ ( EI 30 ) k EI = EI 30 = ∑ er vr I 30 Empirically estimated with
n j =1 k =1 r =1 data from US
er = 0.29 [1 − 0.72 exp( −0.05ir )]
Limitations:
- High resolution temporal data (15’) Other empirical equations
- Empiricism Cerro et al. (1998); Barcelona, Spain
Depends on the physics of rainfall and er ( Cr ) = 0.384 [1 − 0.538 exp( −0.029ir )]
climate dynamics.
Depends on the physico-chemical
characteristics of the soil
Van Dijk et al. (2002); Universal
er (VD ) = 0.283 [1 − 0.52 exp( −0.042ir )]
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
5. Measuring rainfall kinetic energy er and splash
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
6. Relationships between kinetic energy (er) and intensity
Logarithmic functions
Ek = a + b log I
Power-law functions
Ek = a I b
Exponential functions
EK = emax [1 − a exp (−b I )]
USLE proposal
er = 0.29 [1 − 0.72 exp( −0.05ir )]
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
7. Daily Rainfall Erosivity Model
1 n j
m Databases
R = ∑∑( EI 30 ) k
n j =1 k =1 110 rainfall series
15’ time resolution
o
EI = EI 30 = ∑ er vr I 30 EI m = am P bm + ε Period 1997-2006
r =1
156 rainfall series
er = 0.29 [1 − 0.72 exp( −0.05ir )] Daily time resolution
Period 1955-2006
R factor estimated MJ mm ha-1h-1 y-1
R factor observed MJ mm ha-1h-1 y-1
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
8. Daily Rainfall Erosivity databases spatial distribution
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
9. Daily Rainfall Erosivity vs. Rainfall (month by month)
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
10. Trends in rainfall erosivity in relation with NAO, MO &
WeMO
Study case:
Trends in rainfall erosivity at NE Spain
during the period 1955-2006 in relation
with NAO, MO & WeMO
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
11. Rainfall erosivity trends at annual scale
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
12. Rainfall erosivity trends at seasonal scale
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
13. Rainfall erosivity trends at seasonal scale
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
14. Temporal evolution of rainfall erosivity quintile
occurrence
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
15. Rainfall erosivity trends at daily scale; evolution of the
occurrence in low (Q1) and high (Q5) events.
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
16. Rainfall erosivity trends at daily scale; evolution of the
occurrence in low (Q1) and high (Q5) events.
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
17. Rainfall erosivity trends at daily scale; evolution of the
occurrence in low (Q1) and high (Q5) events.
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
18. Rainfall erosivity trends at daily scale; evolution of the
occurrence in low (Q1) and high (Q5) events.
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
19. Could be these trends related with atmospheric
mechanisms and teleconnection patterns evolution?
The characteristics of the rainfall erosivity events—Drop Size Distribution, Kinetic
Energy, Intensity and Duration—depend on the type of rainfall event (Van Dijk
et al. 2002), and in the meteorological and climatic characteristics involved in the
generation of the type of rainfall event:
The leading atmospheric circulation patterns
Sea level pressure fields
Temperature contrasts between high and low atmospheric
layers
Humidity percentage in the air masses
Wind flows
Geographical factors
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
20. Main atmospheric teleconnection patterns affecting the
climate of the study area
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
21. Teleconnection indices circulation patterns in positive
(above) and negative (beneath) phase
NAO+ MO+ WeMO+
NAO- MO- WeMO-
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
22. Are teleconnection indices phases influencing daily
rainfall erosivity?
Differences in daily rainfall erosivity, negative and positive
atmospheric teleconnection indices phases
Positive events = daily indices > 0.5
sd
Negative events = daily indices < -0.5 sd
Relative difference of average daily rainfall erosivity of negative NAO
days with respect to positive NAO days.
EIdif = (EINAO- - EINAO+) / EINAO+
where EINAO- (EINAO+) is the average daily rainfall erosivity of negative (positive) NAO days
Statistical significance checked by the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test
month by month. Significance level α=0.05
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
23. NAO influencing daily rainfall erosivity
Relative difference of average daily rainfall erosivity of negative NAO days with respect to positive NAO days
(MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1 (MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1)-1). Shaded areas indicate not significant difference between
positive and negative NAO phases.
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
24. MO influencing rainfall erosivity
Relative difference of average daily rainfall erosivity of negative MO days with respect to positive MO days
(MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1 (MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1)-1). Shaded areas indicate not significant difference between
positive and negative MO phases.
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
25. WeMO influencing rainfall erosivity
Relative difference of average daily rainfall erosivity of negative WeMO days with respect to positive WeMO
days (MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1 (MJ mm ha-1 h-1 y-1)-1). Shaded areas indicate not significant difference between
positive and negative WeMO phases.
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
26. Analysis of the probability of occurrence of extreme daily
rainfall erosivity records associated to negative and positive
teleconnection indices phase
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
27. Temporal evolution of atmospheric teleconnection
indices and of rainfall erosivity quintile occurrence
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
28. Conclusions
Rainfall erosivity has decreased in the NE of the Iberian
peninsula during the last 55 years
Decrease occurs at annual and seasonal scale, though little
increase occurs at summer and autumn
Decrease is explained by a reduction in the high and extreme
rainfall erosivity events occurrence , whilst low events have
increased.
This evolution seems related with positive trends in the
atmospheric teleconnection indices: NAO, MO and WeMO.
Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” February 15-17, 2012; Technical University of Liberec
29. Contact details:
Estación Experimental Aula Dei – CSIC, Zaragoza (ESPAÑA)/Departamento de Suelo y
Agua
Marta Angulo-Martinez
PhD Student
Email: mangulo@eead.csic.es
Thanks!