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Intro to Liberec, KLIMATEXT
               & the Workshop
“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”




              Liberec, February 15-17, 2012



                  Jan Kyselý, Jan Picek
Liberec

 population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.)
 first noted as Reichenberg in 1348
 prevailing German population until WWII
 centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester of
Bohemia“
 collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall)
Liberec

 population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.)
 first noted as Reichenberg in 1348
 prevailing German population until WWII
 centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester of
Bohemia“
 collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall)



 notable people include
    Ferdinand Porsche (1875-1951; Volkswagen Beetle – most
    manufactured car…)
    Karel Hubáček (1924-2011; SIAL Architectural Studio, Ještěd Tower –
    city’s dominant & the most respected Czech architectural work of the
    20th century)
Ještěd Mt. & Tower
 built in 1963-1968
 at the top of Ještěd Mt. (1012 m)
 1969: the Perret Prize from the International Union of Architects
 2000: Czech architects named Ještěd tower the most successful domestic
architectural work of the 20th century
 shape naturally extends the silhouette of the hill
 a place to oversee much of Bohemia and parts of Poland and Germany
Liberec
 in the centre of a mountain region (surrounded by the Jizera Mountains
and the Ještěd-Kozákov Ridge, both exceeding 1000 m a.s.l.)
 World Championship in cross-country (Nordic) skiing 2009
 plenty of rain & snow…




                                                             Nová Louka, July
                                                             29, 1897:
                                                             345 mm in 24 h
                                                             (record-breaking
                                                             in Central Europe)
KLIMATEXT project

 2011/10 – 2014/9
 PI: Jan Picek
 “Statistical Modelling of CLIMATE EXTremes”
 statisticians, climatologists, hydrologist, geographers
 built on previous successful cooperation between Czech climatologists and
statisticians
 “Strengthening international cooperation of the KLIMATEXT research team”
(ESF)
 cooperating institutions: KNMI (de Bilt, Netherlands), CSIC (Zaragoza,
Spain), University of Lisbon (Portugal)
KLIMATEXT project

 development of advanced statistical models for estimating
probabilities of climate extremes
 “advanced”: non-stationarity/covariates
                spatial/regional analysis
 attracting a lot of interest in recent years – “extreme progress” in
development and implementation of these methodologies in the past 5-7
years at the international literature
(availability of 1) statistical methodologies,
               2) computation/programming resources,
               3) “research need” – climate change)
 still many open and unresolved issues
The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)

 non-stationarity/covariates in EVA in climatology
 formal time schedule: yes, but…
 work in progress
 questions, comments, ideas etc. during presentations welcome


 logistic things, forms etc.: Ivana Šafarčíková & Pavla Charwotová


 lunch – university canteen
The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)
 field trip (this afternoon): fill-in your preference during tea break!
 meeting at 14:50 (option 1) or 14:40 (option 2) at the reception
 cable car: return ticket 120 CZK, one-way 75 CZK
 the plan is to go down at 17:00 and have dinner at ~17:30

                                                                     Option 1:
                                                                     Ještěd by cable car
                                                                     (meeting at 14:50 at
                                                                     the reception)


                                                                     Option 2:
                                                                     Ještěd on foot (14:40
                                                                     at the reception)


                                                                     Option 3:
                                                                     no excursion (17:30
                                                                     at restaurant in Horní
                                                                     Hanychov; maps will
                                                                     be available)
The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)

Today:
 Session 1: Extremes in climate models, spatial dependence
 Session 2: Nonstationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) method




Tomorrow:
 Session 3: Covariate-dependent extremes
 Session 4: Precipitation, covariates & extremes
Hope you will enjoy all 3:

   Liberec, KLIMATEXT & the Workshop
“Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”

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Introduction

  • 1. Intro to Liberec, KLIMATEXT & the Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology” Liberec, February 15-17, 2012 Jan Kyselý, Jan Picek
  • 2. Liberec  population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.)  first noted as Reichenberg in 1348  prevailing German population until WWII  centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester of Bohemia“  collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall)
  • 3. Liberec  population of ~100,000 (5th largest city in the Czech Rep.)  first noted as Reichenberg in 1348  prevailing German population until WWII  centre of textile industry since the 19th century, nicknamed "Manchester of Bohemia“  collection of late 19th century buildings (e.g. town hall)  notable people include Ferdinand Porsche (1875-1951; Volkswagen Beetle – most manufactured car…) Karel Hubáček (1924-2011; SIAL Architectural Studio, Ještěd Tower – city’s dominant & the most respected Czech architectural work of the 20th century)
  • 4. Ještěd Mt. & Tower  built in 1963-1968  at the top of Ještěd Mt. (1012 m)  1969: the Perret Prize from the International Union of Architects  2000: Czech architects named Ještěd tower the most successful domestic architectural work of the 20th century  shape naturally extends the silhouette of the hill  a place to oversee much of Bohemia and parts of Poland and Germany
  • 5. Liberec  in the centre of a mountain region (surrounded by the Jizera Mountains and the Ještěd-Kozákov Ridge, both exceeding 1000 m a.s.l.)  World Championship in cross-country (Nordic) skiing 2009  plenty of rain & snow… Nová Louka, July 29, 1897: 345 mm in 24 h (record-breaking in Central Europe)
  • 6. KLIMATEXT project  2011/10 – 2014/9  PI: Jan Picek  “Statistical Modelling of CLIMATE EXTremes”  statisticians, climatologists, hydrologist, geographers  built on previous successful cooperation between Czech climatologists and statisticians  “Strengthening international cooperation of the KLIMATEXT research team” (ESF)  cooperating institutions: KNMI (de Bilt, Netherlands), CSIC (Zaragoza, Spain), University of Lisbon (Portugal)
  • 7. KLIMATEXT project  development of advanced statistical models for estimating probabilities of climate extremes  “advanced”: non-stationarity/covariates spatial/regional analysis  attracting a lot of interest in recent years – “extreme progress” in development and implementation of these methodologies in the past 5-7 years at the international literature (availability of 1) statistical methodologies, 2) computation/programming resources, 3) “research need” – climate change)  still many open and unresolved issues
  • 8. The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)  non-stationarity/covariates in EVA in climatology  formal time schedule: yes, but…  work in progress  questions, comments, ideas etc. during presentations welcome  logistic things, forms etc.: Ivana Šafarčíková & Pavla Charwotová  lunch – university canteen
  • 9. The Workshop (Feb. 15-17)  field trip (this afternoon): fill-in your preference during tea break!  meeting at 14:50 (option 1) or 14:40 (option 2) at the reception  cable car: return ticket 120 CZK, one-way 75 CZK  the plan is to go down at 17:00 and have dinner at ~17:30 Option 1: Ještěd by cable car (meeting at 14:50 at the reception) Option 2: Ještěd on foot (14:40 at the reception) Option 3: no excursion (17:30 at restaurant in Horní Hanychov; maps will be available)
  • 10. The Workshop (Feb. 15-17) Today:  Session 1: Extremes in climate models, spatial dependence  Session 2: Nonstationary peaks-over-threshold (POT) method Tomorrow:  Session 3: Covariate-dependent extremes  Session 4: Precipitation, covariates & extremes
  • 11. Hope you will enjoy all 3: Liberec, KLIMATEXT & the Workshop “Non-stationary extreme value modelling in climatology”