A Markov model is a mathematical modeling technique derived from matrix algebra that describes the transitions a cohort of patients make among a finite number of mutually exclusive and exhaustive health states over a series of short intervals or cycles. In a Markov model, patients are always in one of the defined health states and events are modeled as transitions between states. The contribution of utility to overall prognosis depends on the length of time spent in each health state. Transition probabilities are used to represent the likelihood of moving between states in each cycle. An example Markov model was provided to demonstrate these concepts.

1. Markov model
Pharmacoeconomics
Nouran Hamza, B Pharm, MSc
Freelance biostatistician

2. What is a Markov Model?
Mathematicalmodelingtechnique,derivedfrommatrixalgebra,thatdescribesthetransitionsacohortofpatientsmakeamonganumberof
mutuallyexclusiveandexhaustivehealthstate duringaseriesofshortintervalsorcycles

3. Properties of a Markov Model
• Patientisalwaysinoneofafinitenumberofhealthstates
• Eventsaremodeledastransitionsfromonestatetoanother
• Contributionofutilitytooverallprognosisdependsonlengthoftimespentinhealthstates
• Duringeachcycle,thepatientmaymakeatransitionfromonestatetoanother

4. Example
Please note that in Markov model we use the probability ( convert
rates or percent to probability

6. Transition Probability
Matrix

11. Please note that all the previous
numbers are in probability terms
if the problem state a number of
population , or a specific cost, do all
the pervious steps + multiplying by
the stated population or cost

12. Construct a Markov model for a cohort
of 5000 subject using the following