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Markov model
Pharmacoeconomics
Nouran Hamza, B Pharm, MSc
Freelance biostatistician
What is a Markov Model?
Mathematicalmodelingtechnique,derivedfrommatrixalgebra,thatdescribesthetransitionsacohortofpatientsmakeamonganumberof
mutuallyexclusiveandexhaustivehealthstate duringaseriesofshortintervalsorcycles
Properties of a Markov Model
• Patientisalwaysinoneofafinitenumberofhealthstates
• Eventsaremodeledastransitionsfromonestatetoanother
• Contributionofutilitytooverallprognosisdependsonlengthoftimespentinhealthstates
• Duringeachcycle,thepatientmaymakeatransitionfromonestatetoanother
Example
Please note that in Markov model we use the probability ( convert
rates or percent to probability
Transition Probability
Matrix
Please note that all the previous
numbers are in probability terms
if the problem state a number of
population , or a specific cost, do all
the pervious steps + multiplying by
the stated population or cost
Construct a Markov model for a cohort
of 5000 subject using the following
Markov model

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Markov model

  • 1. Markov model Pharmacoeconomics Nouran Hamza, B Pharm, MSc Freelance biostatistician
  • 2. What is a Markov Model? Mathematicalmodelingtechnique,derivedfrommatrixalgebra,thatdescribesthetransitionsacohortofpatientsmakeamonganumberof mutuallyexclusiveandexhaustivehealthstate duringaseriesofshortintervalsorcycles
  • 3. Properties of a Markov Model • Patientisalwaysinoneofafinitenumberofhealthstates • Eventsaremodeledastransitionsfromonestatetoanother • Contributionofutilitytooverallprognosisdependsonlengthoftimespentinhealthstates • Duringeachcycle,thepatientmaymakeatransitionfromonestatetoanother
  • 4. Example Please note that in Markov model we use the probability ( convert rates or percent to probability
  • 5.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Please note that all the previous numbers are in probability terms if the problem state a number of population , or a specific cost, do all the pervious steps + multiplying by the stated population or cost
  • 12. Construct a Markov model for a cohort of 5000 subject using the following