The presentation explores how risk management can be agile and robust to be able to respond to the dynamics of the environment especially with respect to the global Covid-19 pandemic.

1. DR. EMMANUEL MOORE ABOLO
GMD/CEO, The Risk Management Academy Limited
President, Institute for Governance, Risk Management & Compliance
Professionals
President, Professional Speakers Society of Nigeria &
Director General, The Economic Thinktank Centre
MANAGING RISKS IN TURBULENT TIMES

2. OUTLINE
 QUOTABLE QUOTES
 ARE WE IN TURBULENT TIMES?
 THE COVID-19 ARMADA
 BUT WHAT IS RISK MANAGEMENT?
 RISK MANAGEMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES
 RISK FUNCTION: PREPARING FOR CHANGE
 PREPARING FOR CHANGE-MORE DYNAMIC RISK
MANAGEMENT
 JOURNEY TO FUTURE-CRISIS-FITNESS
 CLOSING REMARKS
MANAGING RISKS IN TURBULENT TIMES 2

3. MANAGING RISKS IN TURBULENT TIMES 3
Managing Risks in Turbulent Times

4. QUOTABLE QUOTES
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• Most of us want to live in harmony and peace and be good to others.
Right now, however, the world is in a very turbulent time, and our
leadership has gone crazy.
• Hany Abu-Assad
• The primary task of a Jew in turbulent times is to be Jewish.
• - Author: Elie Wiesel
• Perhaps the most urgent task for leaders in tough [turbulent] times is
to take a break from speed and change. Just pause. This is almost
counterintuitive in an age of constant re-engineering, innovation and
change. Yet pausing in the present allows leaders to think and
recharge their batteries, and gives people an opportunity to catch
their breath without the added anxiety of coping with taxing change.
• Eric Beaudan

5. ARE WE IN TURBULENT TIMES?
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 Among the characteristics that distinguish turbulence from
other perilous situations are:
 its large and uncontrollable scale;
 high velocity and fluctuation/volatility;
 its cascading/gushing effect; and
 unclear patterns of evolution, leading to a chaotic
situation.
 What would you say? We are indeed living in turbulent
times.
 In such situations, the survival of the organization (or country)
depends on its ability to rapidly respond to the challenges and
whether its ‘’leadership’’ is a responsive and reliable point of
stability for all stakeholders.

6. ARE WE IN TURBULENT TIMES?
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 The proverbial ancient Chinese curse, ‘‘May you live in interesting
times,’’ might be rendered in the third millennium as, ‘‘May you live in
turbulent times.’’
 Indeed, current times are distinctly turbulent.
 The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected the entire global
ecosystem.
 Pandemics are not new. We have historical records on the effects of
pandemics dating from as early as 3000 BC. Between 1348 and 1350,
the Black Death killed a quarter of the population in Europe. A century
later, European diseases killed large numbers of Indigenous people in
what is now known as Canada and the rest of the Americas.
 The 1918 Spanish flu caused around 50 million deaths worldwide. Since then, we have suffered deadly
outbreaks of smallpox, pertussis, Ebola, SARS, Avian flu and many others.

7. ARE WE IN TURBULENT TIMES?
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 Successful risk management remains the key to survival
and success.
 Risks beyond the control of the firm affect businesses more
than ever before, and the fundamental job of executives is to:
 anticipate [stress testing] further changes; and
 manage them on the basis of an ‘’opinion’’[forecast]
about the future.

8. THE COVID-19 ARMADA
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 The disruption to the global economy due to COVID-19 delivers two major shocks at
the same time:
 1. Demand Shock - Pertains to the global demand for goods and services.
Every major country is implementing social distancing measures and other
protocols : from bars, restaurants, and hotels to planes, trains, and
automobiles; a sudden drop in economic activity is leading to a sharp drop in
aggregate demand for goods and services; and
 2. Supply Shock - Ferocious at a rapid pace with reduction, or total
shutdown, in factory output which are crushingly affecting manufacturing
from Asia to Europe to the Americas and everywhere.
 What do these two major shocks mean for the global economy?
 They will test and expose the vulnerabilities for key areas of business models/
infrastructure
 The survival and economical success of a company relies on its ability
to manage risks better than competitors.

9. THE COVID-19 ARMADA
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• Risk management aims at supporting the resilience of
business operations, making them more robust and able
to absorb unforeseen negative impacts on core business
objectives, in a manner that ensures continuity, the ability to
generate value and profits
• In all of these, two main questions concern risk
management:
• the ability to foresee crises; and
• Ability to manage current realities?

10. THE COVID-19 ARMADA
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Zone of
predictability
Unk-Unks
LFHI

11. THE THREE WAVES OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS RESPONSE
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Most businesses and organizations readily mobilized their crisis plans
if they had them, or have quickly put something together if they didn’t.
Normality Vs Abnormality

12. BUT WHAT IS RISK MANAGEMENT?
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Risk is the ‘effect of uncertainty on objectives’ where effect is a
deviation from the expected outcome.

13. RISK MANAGEMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES
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 Is risk management able to help us foresee crises such as the present
one?
 The catastrophic damage that is developing now to our economies (and the
unforeseen impact it will have on our society for years to come) cannot be
predicted but can only be prepared for by building robust risk
management systems
 The risk management function should therefore be focused: making our
business processes robust, enhancing the ability to prepare for the
unforeseen that will happen, and ensuring we secure the key
objectives: continuity, growth (after decline) and profitability (in the
future).
 What should be expected from risk management from now on?
 It seems like the period of hard measures (The Hammer) is now followed by
a period of softer measures (The Dance). The question remains: how long
will we be able to enjoy the periods of freedom, during which we can pick up
our businesses?

14. RISK MANAGEMENT IN TURBULENT TIMES
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• While we are now aware of the COVID-19 as we were already aware of
the “known” risks-- business interruption, liability, etc. are we resilient
enough to withstand the unforeseen moment of impact, and will we
be able to secure business continuity, profitability and the ability to
grow in a “new reality”?
• Evaluating the exposures of our business operations should be a
continuous process taking into account the hard lessons learned.
• Though we cannot predict the Black Swan events, we can at least test
our ability to withstand them------stress testing/backtesting.

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What to do next with risk management
• Though risk management is not the panacea for COVID-19 or
the next Black Swan event, it can make our business more
resilient and robust.
• How well is risk management developed in your
organization? It does not always need to be a formalized
function as this depends on the size and the nature of your
business.
• However, the ability to anticipate is being proven as
crucial for any business to survive in the near to medium
terms.

16. RISK FUNCTION: PREPARING FOR CHANGE
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• It will need to be a core part of companies’ strategic planning,
collaborate closely with business owners, and act as a center
of excellence in analytics and de-biased decision making.
• Risk function ability to manage multiple risk types while
complying with existing regulations and preparing for new
rules will make it more valuable still, while its role in fulfilling
customer expectations will probably render it a key contributor
to the bottom line.
• The optimal function for risk management would have the
following attributes and capabilities:

17. RISK FUNCTION: PREPARING FOR CHANGE
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• full automation of decisions and processes with minimal
manual interventions;
• increased reliance on advanced analytical models to de-bias
decisions;
• close collaboration with businesses and other functions to
provide a better customer experience, and enhanced
regulatory preparedness;
• strong advocacy of corporate values and principles,
supported by a robust risk culture that is clearly defined,
communicated, and reinforced throughout the organisation;
• Contingency planning; and
• a talent pool with superior advanced-analytics capabilities.

18. PREPARING FOR CHANGE-MORE DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT
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• Companies require dynamic and flexible risk management
to navigate an unpredictable future in which change comes
quickly.
• Nearly all organizations need to refresh and strengthen their
approach to risk management to be better prepared for the
next normal.
• Dynamic risk management has three core component
activities:
• detecting potential new risks and weaknesses in
controls;
• determining the appetite for risk taking; and
• deciding on the appropriate risk-management
approach.

19. PREPARING FOR CHANGE-MORE DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT
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20. PREPARING FOR CHANGE-MORE DYNAMIC RISK MANAGEMENT
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21. JOURNEY TO FUTURE-CRISIS-FITNESS
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• Crises will be more complex — and harder than ever to contain;
• You need a crisis leader. The future of crisis management requires a broad,
tested response plan, ready to deploy from Day One. This cannot happen
without one central person given the clear mandate and authority to develop a
crisis management program that governs every aspect of preparedness,
response, and communication;
• Crisis preparedness is more than an opportunity: it will be a competitive
advantage;
• Crisis is, and always will be, a human event. It is tempting to tuck crisis
management under the rubric of ERM. But what sets it apart from all other
business functions is the intense effect it has on humans;
• It is possible to be a crisis optimist. When faced with the prospect
(statistically, the likelihood) of a crisis, it’s easy to go numb and get caught
unprepared. Or swing the other way and over-focus on the crises you read
about... at the risk of preparedness for the actual things that could hit you.
Instead, you can choose to see crisis as an element of strategic risk
intelligence: an opportunity for maturity and economic growth.

22. CLOSING REMARKS
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• The keys to risk management success in turbulent times are preparation,
agility, accurate data, and a willingness to harvest good ideas from every layer
of an enterprise;
• Simulation/forecasting models can provide key insights for future pandemic
response plans; and
• Living in a fast-changing and turbulent world require organizations to change
their thinking on risk, and to roll out risk management systems that can reduce
negative consequences, minimize losses, and turn risks into opportunities.
• To survive in this crisis-rich world, risk managers and business leaders must
develop the same discipline that their military counterparts have practiced for
centuries: Prepare for rough times, and in rough times respond visibly,
reinforce purpose and encourage new leaders. As Sun-tzu said, “In
military combat, what is most difficult is turning the circuitous into the
straight, turning adversity into advantage.”

23. WHAT A TURBULENT WORLD!!!!!
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WHAT A TURBULENT WORLD WE LIVE IN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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