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DR. EMMANUEL MOORE ABOLO
Founder & Director General, The Economic Thinktank Centre Limited
GMD/CEO, The Risk Management Academy Limited
President, Institute for Governance, Risk Management & Compliance Professionals
President, Professional Speakers Society of Nigeria
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
Presented at the Annual Accountants Conference of ICAN at Amber Residence, Ikeja GRA, Lagos on January 30, 2021
OUTLINE
• ABOUT THE SPEAKER
• NIGERIA’ S JOURNEY TO 2020
• NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT
• GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
• NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
• WHICH WAY FOR ICAN IN 2021?
• WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE? STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2
About the Speaker
• Holds the Ph.D. degree in Economics and has over 25 years of dynamic and impactful knowledge in risk management,
corporate governance, strategy crafting, leadership and compliance with extensive experience cutting across several sectors
and industries.
• Was Chief Risk & Compliance Officer [Nexim Bank] ;Chief Economist [ First Bank of Nigeria Plc. & Access Bank Plc.]; Basel
Project Manager[ First Bank, NEXIM & Access Bank].
• One-time Group Head [Operational and Market Risks] at the above institutions.
• IFC-Certified Corporate Governance Board Leadership Trainer
• Director, Centre for Good Corporate Governance of Nigeria.
• Listed by the World Bank as one of the finest minds in risk management in Africa
• Recipient of the Federal Government of Nigeria National Merit Award.
• Founder & DG, The Economic Thinktank Centre
• GMD/CEO, The Risk Management Academy Limited
• Board member of five [5] other companies.
• Past President, Risk Management Association of Nigeria
• Council Member, Gerson Lehman Group
• President, Institute for Governance, Risk Management & Compliance Professionals
• Fellow [Institute of Management Consultants ; Fellow, Institute of Credit Administration; National Institute of Marketing of
Nigeria; Chartered Institute of Economists of Nigeria.
• International External Trainer [Risk Management] for KPM Learning & Development [Singapore]- Africa & Middle East.
• Presented over 800 papers at Conferences, Seminars, Workshops, etc both locally and internationally
• External Reviewer for two risk management journals [Ukraine and USA].
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3
NIGERIA’ s JOURNEY TO 2020
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 4
NIGERIA’ s JOURNEY TO 2020
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 5
NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 6
NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT-Real GDP and Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 7
PMI=economic indicators derived from monthly
surveys of private sector companies.
NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT-Oil price, production (percent, change) and its volatility
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 8
NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT-Oil vs Non-oil sector( percent, change)
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 9
Revenue as %
NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT—SUMMARY STATISTICS
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 10
NIGERIA: GDP GROWTH RATE 2019/2020
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 11
NIGERIA: GDP GROWTH RATE 2020
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 12
NIGERIA: INFLATION VS GDP GROWTH [%]—2015-2021
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 13
14.23%
NIGERIA: FOREIGN RESERVES [ US$BN]-2010-2020
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 14
NIGERIA: BALANCE OF PAYMENT AND FOREIGN RESERVES [ US$BN]-1996-2026
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 15
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 16
19TH
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 17
Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey
13TH
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 18
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 19
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 20
GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 21
And recovery from Covid
impact
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: BREXIT AND NIGERIA
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 22
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: BREXIT AND NIGERIA
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 23
NIGERIA 2021 : DRIVERS OF CHANGE
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 24
NIGERIA IN 2021
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 25
AFCFTA BENEFITS TO AFRICA
NIGERIA IN 2021
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 26
AFCFTA BENEFITS TO NIGERIA
NIGERIA IN 2021
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 27
AFCFTA BENEFITS TO NIGERIA
NIGERIA 2021 GDP, EXCHANGE RATE AND INFLATION FORECAST
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 28
NIGERIA 2021 GDP, EXCHANGE RATE AND INFLATION FORECAST
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 29
GDP GROWTH TO STAY NEGATIVE UNTIL Q3’21
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 30
GROWTH IN NON-OIL SECTORS TO IMPROVE FROM Q1’21
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 31
INFLATIONARY PRESSURES TO PERSIST
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 32
CURRENCY PRESSURES TO REMAIN
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 33
INTEREST RATES LIKELY TO CLIMB IN 2021
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 34
EXTERNAL RESERVES DEPLETION TO CONTINUE IN 2021
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 35
EXTERNAL DEBT BURDEN WOULD REMAIN UNSUSTAINABLE
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 36
OIL PRICE & PRODUCTION
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 37
NIGERIA CONSUMER IN 2020
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 38
NIGERIA
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 39
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 40
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 41
NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 42
aboloemma@gmail.com
mail@drabolomoore.com
info@theriskacademy.org
info@pssn.org.ng
08021003297
09071941111

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NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK BY DR. EMMANUEL MOORE ABOLO

  • 1. DR. EMMANUEL MOORE ABOLO Founder & Director General, The Economic Thinktank Centre Limited GMD/CEO, The Risk Management Academy Limited President, Institute for Governance, Risk Management & Compliance Professionals President, Professional Speakers Society of Nigeria NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Presented at the Annual Accountants Conference of ICAN at Amber Residence, Ikeja GRA, Lagos on January 30, 2021
  • 2. OUTLINE • ABOUT THE SPEAKER • NIGERIA’ S JOURNEY TO 2020 • NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT • GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS • NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK • WHICH WAY FOR ICAN IN 2021? • WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE? STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2
  • 3. About the Speaker • Holds the Ph.D. degree in Economics and has over 25 years of dynamic and impactful knowledge in risk management, corporate governance, strategy crafting, leadership and compliance with extensive experience cutting across several sectors and industries. • Was Chief Risk & Compliance Officer [Nexim Bank] ;Chief Economist [ First Bank of Nigeria Plc. & Access Bank Plc.]; Basel Project Manager[ First Bank, NEXIM & Access Bank]. • One-time Group Head [Operational and Market Risks] at the above institutions. • IFC-Certified Corporate Governance Board Leadership Trainer • Director, Centre for Good Corporate Governance of Nigeria. • Listed by the World Bank as one of the finest minds in risk management in Africa • Recipient of the Federal Government of Nigeria National Merit Award. • Founder & DG, The Economic Thinktank Centre • GMD/CEO, The Risk Management Academy Limited • Board member of five [5] other companies. • Past President, Risk Management Association of Nigeria • Council Member, Gerson Lehman Group • President, Institute for Governance, Risk Management & Compliance Professionals • Fellow [Institute of Management Consultants ; Fellow, Institute of Credit Administration; National Institute of Marketing of Nigeria; Chartered Institute of Economists of Nigeria. • International External Trainer [Risk Management] for KPM Learning & Development [Singapore]- Africa & Middle East. • Presented over 800 papers at Conferences, Seminars, Workshops, etc both locally and internationally • External Reviewer for two risk management journals [Ukraine and USA]. NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 3
  • 4. NIGERIA’ s JOURNEY TO 2020 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 4
  • 5. NIGERIA’ s JOURNEY TO 2020 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 5
  • 6. NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 6
  • 7. NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT-Real GDP and Purchasing Managers Index(PMI) NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 7 PMI=economic indicators derived from monthly surveys of private sector companies.
  • 8. NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT-Oil price, production (percent, change) and its volatility NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 8
  • 9. NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT-Oil vs Non-oil sector( percent, change) NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 9 Revenue as %
  • 10. NIGERIA: 2020 IN RETROSPECT—SUMMARY STATISTICS NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 10
  • 11. NIGERIA: GDP GROWTH RATE 2019/2020 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 11
  • 12. NIGERIA: GDP GROWTH RATE 2020 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 12
  • 13. NIGERIA: INFLATION VS GDP GROWTH [%]—2015-2021 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 13 14.23%
  • 14. NIGERIA: FOREIGN RESERVES [ US$BN]-2010-2020 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 14
  • 15. NIGERIA: BALANCE OF PAYMENT AND FOREIGN RESERVES [ US$BN]-1996-2026 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 15
  • 16. GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 16 19TH
  • 17. GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 17 Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkey 13TH
  • 18. GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 18
  • 19. GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 19
  • 20. GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 20
  • 21. GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 21 And recovery from Covid impact
  • 22. NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: BREXIT AND NIGERIA NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 22
  • 23. NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: BREXIT AND NIGERIA NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 23
  • 24. NIGERIA 2021 : DRIVERS OF CHANGE NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 24
  • 25. NIGERIA IN 2021 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 25 AFCFTA BENEFITS TO AFRICA
  • 26. NIGERIA IN 2021 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 26 AFCFTA BENEFITS TO NIGERIA
  • 27. NIGERIA IN 2021 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 27 AFCFTA BENEFITS TO NIGERIA
  • 28. NIGERIA 2021 GDP, EXCHANGE RATE AND INFLATION FORECAST NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 28
  • 29. NIGERIA 2021 GDP, EXCHANGE RATE AND INFLATION FORECAST NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 29
  • 30. GDP GROWTH TO STAY NEGATIVE UNTIL Q3’21 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 30
  • 31. GROWTH IN NON-OIL SECTORS TO IMPROVE FROM Q1’21 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 31
  • 32. INFLATIONARY PRESSURES TO PERSIST NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 32
  • 33. CURRENCY PRESSURES TO REMAIN NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 33
  • 34. INTEREST RATES LIKELY TO CLIMB IN 2021 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 34
  • 35. EXTERNAL RESERVES DEPLETION TO CONTINUE IN 2021 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 35
  • 36. EXTERNAL DEBT BURDEN WOULD REMAIN UNSUSTAINABLE NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 36
  • 37. OIL PRICE & PRODUCTION NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 37
  • 38. NIGERIA CONSUMER IN 2020 NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 38
  • 40. NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 40
  • 41. NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 41
  • 42. NIGERIA 2021 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 42 aboloemma@gmail.com mail@drabolomoore.com info@theriskacademy.org info@pssn.org.ng 08021003297 09071941111