The document summarizes a study by Deloitte Consulting and Deloitte & Touche on managing amid uncertainty. It outlines the futility of economic forecasting given unpredictable recessions and recoveries. It then introduces the concept of strategic flexibility, a four-phase approach to strategic planning that abandons predictions in favor of developing scenarios of possible futures and optimal strategies for each scenario. The four phases are: 1) anticipating key drivers of change and defining possible scenarios, 2) formulating optimal strategies for each scenario, 3) accumulating resources needed for core strategies and options for contingent strategies, 4) operating by executing core strategies and adapting options as the environment changes.
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are important risk management tools used by banks and insurance companies. VaR measures potential losses within a given probability level but fails to capture losses in the tail of a distribution. Stress testing assesses the impact of potential adverse scenarios by stressing key risk factors. It helps entities understand their risk profile and maintain adequate capital. Stress testing in the life insurance sector helps assess risks related to business planning, products, assets/liabilities, and capital. Both sensitivity testing (small changes to factors) and scenario testing (alternative future states) are used. The success of stress testing depends on using appropriate scenarios, management/board understanding of results, and realistic action plans. Regulators also require stress
This document discusses the benefits of a multi-manager investing approach over relying on a single manager. It argues that combining complementary managers with differing styles can provide market-beating returns while reducing risk, analogous to how a team with different player types is more likely to succeed than relying on a single star player. The document also stresses the importance of ongoing monitoring to ensure the right managers are being utilized depending on changing market conditions.
Fin Analytica Whitepaper Rebuilding Trust 11 17 08 Finalmarc_gross
An introduction to "Post Modern" portfolio theory. This paper explores more informative downside risk measures based on risk asymmetry, fat-tails, volitility clustering and dynamic correlation shifts. It goes on to introduce the concept of tail-risk budgeting as a means of portfolio construction more alligned with investor preferences.
I am very happy to present you my very first thesis! :)
Within this thesis, I aim to consolidate scenario planning process accross various discipline.
This proposed approach will allow to explore "How can scenario planning can be leveraged to enhance long-term Strategic & Financial Planning." The aim is to bring a fresh perspective to Scenario Planning as a cross-functional practice.
Please feel free to contact me at ybmetalo@gmail.com for any discussion around this subject or any other related ones.
Thanks and regards :)
The document discusses the limitations of using "Up Market Capture" and "Down Market Capture" ratios to predict the future performance of investment managers. It finds:
1) There is little persistence or consistency in a manager's UMC/DMC ratios over time, indicating they are not predictive of future performance.
2) The predictive power of UMC/DMC ratios for subsequent periods is mixed - sometimes they correlate with performance and sometimes they do not.
3) Categorizing markets as simply "up" or "down" oversimplifies the many factors that drive market performance, limiting the usefulness of UMC/DMC ratios.
The document concludes UMC/DMC ratios are essentially
This book is an anthology of essays on scenario planning as a tool to help organizations anticipate future challenges and opportunities. Scenario planning involves considering multiple possible futures rather than just tweaking variables, allowing organizations to think more systemically. It helps reduce response times and increase preparedness. The book argues that scenario planning can accelerate organizational learning and provide competitive advantages by keeping organizations adaptive to changing environments. It provides case studies and discusses how to integrate scenario planning into strategic planning and organizational culture. The goal is to develop a "sixth sense" around complexity and uncertainty by using scenarios to continuously challenge assumptions and prompt strategic conversations.
This document discusses a new measure of portfolio diversification called Effective Portfolio Dimensionality (EPD). EPD aims to quantify diversification in a single number by assessing the number of independent dimensions of risk in a portfolio. The EPD divides portfolio correlations into perfect positive correlation, perfect negative correlation, and zero correlation, with zero correlation representing true diversification. The EPD is compared for different portfolio construction techniques using real-world asset categories, showing intuitive results. Portfolios with higher EPD scores are generally considered to be more diversified.
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are important risk management tools used by banks and insurance companies. VaR measures potential losses within a given probability level but fails to capture losses in the tail of a distribution. Stress testing assesses the impact of potential adverse scenarios by stressing key risk factors. It helps entities understand their risk profile and maintain adequate capital. Stress testing in the life insurance sector helps assess risks related to business planning, products, assets/liabilities, and capital. Both sensitivity testing (small changes to factors) and scenario testing (alternative future states) are used. The success of stress testing depends on using appropriate scenarios, management/board understanding of results, and realistic action plans. Regulators also require stress
This document discusses the benefits of a multi-manager investing approach over relying on a single manager. It argues that combining complementary managers with differing styles can provide market-beating returns while reducing risk, analogous to how a team with different player types is more likely to succeed than relying on a single star player. The document also stresses the importance of ongoing monitoring to ensure the right managers are being utilized depending on changing market conditions.
Fin Analytica Whitepaper Rebuilding Trust 11 17 08 Finalmarc_gross
An introduction to "Post Modern" portfolio theory. This paper explores more informative downside risk measures based on risk asymmetry, fat-tails, volitility clustering and dynamic correlation shifts. It goes on to introduce the concept of tail-risk budgeting as a means of portfolio construction more alligned with investor preferences.
I am very happy to present you my very first thesis! :)
Within this thesis, I aim to consolidate scenario planning process accross various discipline.
This proposed approach will allow to explore "How can scenario planning can be leveraged to enhance long-term Strategic & Financial Planning." The aim is to bring a fresh perspective to Scenario Planning as a cross-functional practice.
Please feel free to contact me at ybmetalo@gmail.com for any discussion around this subject or any other related ones.
Thanks and regards :)
The document discusses the limitations of using "Up Market Capture" and "Down Market Capture" ratios to predict the future performance of investment managers. It finds:
1) There is little persistence or consistency in a manager's UMC/DMC ratios over time, indicating they are not predictive of future performance.
2) The predictive power of UMC/DMC ratios for subsequent periods is mixed - sometimes they correlate with performance and sometimes they do not.
3) Categorizing markets as simply "up" or "down" oversimplifies the many factors that drive market performance, limiting the usefulness of UMC/DMC ratios.
The document concludes UMC/DMC ratios are essentially
This book is an anthology of essays on scenario planning as a tool to help organizations anticipate future challenges and opportunities. Scenario planning involves considering multiple possible futures rather than just tweaking variables, allowing organizations to think more systemically. It helps reduce response times and increase preparedness. The book argues that scenario planning can accelerate organizational learning and provide competitive advantages by keeping organizations adaptive to changing environments. It provides case studies and discusses how to integrate scenario planning into strategic planning and organizational culture. The goal is to develop a "sixth sense" around complexity and uncertainty by using scenarios to continuously challenge assumptions and prompt strategic conversations.
This document discusses a new measure of portfolio diversification called Effective Portfolio Dimensionality (EPD). EPD aims to quantify diversification in a single number by assessing the number of independent dimensions of risk in a portfolio. The EPD divides portfolio correlations into perfect positive correlation, perfect negative correlation, and zero correlation, with zero correlation representing true diversification. The EPD is compared for different portfolio construction techniques using real-world asset categories, showing intuitive results. Portfolios with higher EPD scores are generally considered to be more diversified.
GRA - Scenario Planning: Addressing a Capability Gap Affecting Industry Compe...Rebecca Manjra
Exponential population and technology growth is occurring at a rate never before seen in history. Together, these forces have created the data driven world we live in. The business landscape has become more competitive and complex given the increased level of capability required to scale, evolve and rapidly gain market share; shortening the business maturity lifecycle.
A critical success factor to survival and succeed in both nature and business is the ability to learn and implement quickly – to adapt and evolve. By reducing the time it takes for your business to know what’s happening, learn what is needed for success and implement, you can outpace your competitors and capture new opportunities.
Today, there is an imperative to turn the vast seas of data into information, something useable which drives insights and enables us to make decisions which optimally utilise assets and resources. In operational speak, this entire process is enabled by excellence in Scenario Planning.
This presentation covers the relevancy of Scenario Planning today including an analysis of the stages of S&OP maturity as well as a case study with Simplot, a leading Australian food manufacturer and a leader in S&OP maturity and Scenario Planning.
This document summarizes research on the momentum factor in equities. It finds that stocks with strong recent performance tend to continue outperforming, known as the momentum effect. The biggest challenge for capturing momentum is its high inherent turnover. Using optimization in portfolio construction can successfully capture momentum while controlling turnover. Adding momentum to portfolios with other factors like value provides diversification benefits due to its negative correlation with value.
How important are the rules used to create smart beta portfoliosRalph Goldsticker
Most Smart Beta presentations are about: “What and Why?”
This presentation addresses: “Do the rules used to construct a Smart Beta portfolio matter?”
Our approach was to use alternative portfolio construction rules to simulate multiple 25-year return histories for Low Volatility, Fundamental Indexing and Momentum strategies, and then compare their average returns, risks, drawdowns and factor exposures.
The Business Odyssey 2015 No 7 - Operational PlanningFisher Cut Bait
The document discusses operational planning and how it differs from strategic planning. Operational planning focuses on specific outcomes and initiatives to advance goals over the next year. It is most effective when delegated to individual business units and consolidated into a company-wide plan. This provides executives information to ensure strategic goals are achieved. The document also discusses how operational planning can help businesses cope with change, reduce uncertainty, and manage risk by exposing unknown factors and developing plans to address them.
This document provides information on active investment management strategies. It discusses how one financial advisor, Steve Miller, transitioned his practice over 20 years to focus on managing volatility and risk through active investment management. Miller works with third-party managers who use sophisticated strategies and constant market monitoring. The transition was gradual as Miller validated the effectiveness of active management, especially during market downturns. He works closely with clients to develop goals and specific risk profiles that the active strategies aim to address.
The document provides advice on investing during uncertain economic times. It recommends that investors focus on long-term goals rather than short-term predictions, build a diversified portfolio, and rebalance regularly. It suggests that the decline in stock prices provides an opportunity to add equities at lower prices. The summary emphasizes maintaining a diversified portfolio aligned with long-term goals rather than trying to time the market based on conflicting predictions.
This document discusses smart beta investing strategies. It begins with defining smart beta as rule-based investment strategies aimed at achieving superior risk-adjusted returns. Examples of strategies discussed include fundamental indexing and minimum volatility. The document then covers reasons for and against investing in smart beta, distinguishing smart beta from active management. It outlines how smart beta, indexing and active strategies can provide different sources of return. The presentation concludes by discussing considerations for selecting smart beta strategies and allocating among smart beta, indexing and active management.
An investment in mid-cap stocks would have significantly outperformed large and small cap stocks over the long term between 1979 and 2009. Mid-caps have exhibited a consistent record of outperformance relative to other market caps across various time periods. They also provide a better risk-reward relationship than other caps, participating in market upswings while avoiding much of the downside. Mid-cap performance follows predictable patterns over economic cycles. The current market environment is favorable for mid-caps, and including a mid-cap allocation has historically improved portfolio performance with minimal increased risk.
Smart Beta Investing - Trends and OpportunitiesAmit Sinha
Additional content available at www.focus262.com/blog
Presentation by Amit Sinha at the Copal Amba Breakfast Series that walks through the what, why and where of Smart Beta investing.
Beginning with what is smart beta, then moving to why investors can benefit from smart beta and concluding with where the industry is headed - highlighting the potential market opportunity, challenges, and business models followed by asset managers such as Dimensional, AQR, GSAM, etc.
Create an investment plan with our content ready Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides. The topic-specific asset allocation management presentation deck has various content ready PPT slides such as introduction to investments, objectives of portfolio management, types of investment, market scenario overview investment instruments, securities portfolio, analysis and valuation of equity securities, industry analysis PESTEL, SWOT analysis, discounted cash flow method, financial statement analysis, company cash flow statement, investment in special situations, fixed income and leveraged securities, bond valuation system, reinvestment risk table, type of convertible securities, options analysis, warrants summarization overview, derivative products, put and call options, stock index futures and options, stock indexes comparison table, broaden the investment perspective, international security market highlights, global market trends, mutual funds investment criteria overview, investment in real estate, diversified real estate classification, KPIs and dashboards, etc. Download the professionally designed investment analysis & portfolio management PowerPoint complete deck for portfolio risk and return analysis. Our Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides team are like a bunch of cowboys. They enjoy being fast off the draw.
FiBAN's business angel training "Effectuation in Venture investing - Do exper...FiBAN
Presention shared by Dr. Robert Wiltbank at FiBAN's business angel training in Helsinki, 3rd of November.
All the presentations and videos are gathered here: https://www.fiban.org/robertwiltbank
Presentations given:
1. Comparison of Finnish and US angel activity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKdmr...
- Slides:
2. Angel Returns: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juuAK...
- Slides:
3. Effective business angel strategies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsZQd...
- Slides:
4. Effectuation in Venture investing - Do experts make decisions differently?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miWap...
- Slides
For additional details and questions: https://www.fiban.org/robertwiltbank
The document discusses risk management strategies for funds of funds in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. It emphasizes the importance of accurate risk measurement, including calculating simple statistics like returns, volatility, and value at risk. However, it notes that more advanced analysis is needed, including peer group analysis, regime switching analysis to understand performance in up and down markets, and accounting for non-normal distributions when calculating value at risk. Effective risk management requires establishing policies, procedures and infrastructure tailored to each firm's operating model and needs.
Insight Summit 2017: Intelligent Risk Taking - Active vs passive investing
Money management in equilibrium - Jonathan Berk, A.P. Giannini Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University
Presented at the third annual Insight Summit conference held on 7 November 2017 by London Business School’s AQR Asset Management Institute.
Why Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners WhitepaperAndrei Filippov
Traditional asset classes appear to offer uninspiring beta returns at present, and recent years’ hedge fund returns have disappointed both in magnitude and diversification benefits, likely reflecting capacity pressures associated with the concentration of AUM and inflows with larger funds. We argue that, by contrast, Emerging hedge funds offer a rich opportunity set with far fewer capacity issues where skilled managers with concrete competitive advantages in less efficient, smaller capitalization market segments can generate better, more sustainable and less correlated excess returns. Emerging managers do involve more investment and operational risk than larger peers; to that challenge we offer some suggestions on a thoughtful and rigorous approach to constructing an Emerging Managers allocation and balancing effective due diligence with scalability.
In All About Factors, we cover the basics of what factors are, where we expect them to derive their excess returns from, their advantages and disadvantages and if there is indeed any merit to this approach or if it just another Wall Street marketing gimmick.
After covering the commonly accepted factors basics, we discuss expectations for factor investing, the theory as to why short-term pain must be present for long-term return, and some key considerations in moving from the academic research to creating investible portfolios.
Also explored is the current on-going debate between industry titans Rob Arnott (Research Affiliates) and Cliff Asness (AQR) as to the efficacy of using valuation-based spreads to time factor exposures.
Lastly, we look at some different methods that a retail investor can utilize smart-beta investing, by highlighting some of the current industry techniques for diversifying factor exposures and building a multi-factor portfolio.
Do you know people are getting jobs via LinkedIn,Facebook and Twitter?It's more than that fun platform.Get the latest techniques for searching for your dream job and how to prepare a CV. Learn about the social media approach.
Content:
Definition of Stress
Types of Stress
The Stress Process
Common causes of Stress
Consequence of Stress.
Organizational and Life Stress
Factors Affecting on Job Stress
Managing Stress in Workplace.
Community Focused Discussion On Job lossKianga Moore
This document announces a community discussion to provide support and resources to those experiencing job loss or career transitions. Experts from various sectors will share their perspectives on coping with unemployment, updating resumes, health insurance options, and programs to assist with training or counseling. The discussion aims to help attendees discover solutions to get through temporary joblessness or make career changes by learning about unemployment benefits, education options, continuing health coverage, and alternative job searching tools.
This document discusses managing emotions after job loss and provides resources for finding new employment. It covers the five stages of grief after losing a job (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance), and emphasizes understanding one's emotions as the first step to moving forward. It then outlines various resources available, including assessing one's situation through the local workforce development center, getting finances in order, accessing social services if needed, networking for encouragement, and conducting an organized job search through Illinois workNet. The overall goal is to help people move through the emotions of job loss to acceptance and eventually back to new employment.
GRA - Scenario Planning: Addressing a Capability Gap Affecting Industry Compe...Rebecca Manjra
Exponential population and technology growth is occurring at a rate never before seen in history. Together, these forces have created the data driven world we live in. The business landscape has become more competitive and complex given the increased level of capability required to scale, evolve and rapidly gain market share; shortening the business maturity lifecycle.
A critical success factor to survival and succeed in both nature and business is the ability to learn and implement quickly – to adapt and evolve. By reducing the time it takes for your business to know what’s happening, learn what is needed for success and implement, you can outpace your competitors and capture new opportunities.
Today, there is an imperative to turn the vast seas of data into information, something useable which drives insights and enables us to make decisions which optimally utilise assets and resources. In operational speak, this entire process is enabled by excellence in Scenario Planning.
This presentation covers the relevancy of Scenario Planning today including an analysis of the stages of S&OP maturity as well as a case study with Simplot, a leading Australian food manufacturer and a leader in S&OP maturity and Scenario Planning.
This document summarizes research on the momentum factor in equities. It finds that stocks with strong recent performance tend to continue outperforming, known as the momentum effect. The biggest challenge for capturing momentum is its high inherent turnover. Using optimization in portfolio construction can successfully capture momentum while controlling turnover. Adding momentum to portfolios with other factors like value provides diversification benefits due to its negative correlation with value.
How important are the rules used to create smart beta portfoliosRalph Goldsticker
Most Smart Beta presentations are about: “What and Why?”
This presentation addresses: “Do the rules used to construct a Smart Beta portfolio matter?”
Our approach was to use alternative portfolio construction rules to simulate multiple 25-year return histories for Low Volatility, Fundamental Indexing and Momentum strategies, and then compare their average returns, risks, drawdowns and factor exposures.
The Business Odyssey 2015 No 7 - Operational PlanningFisher Cut Bait
The document discusses operational planning and how it differs from strategic planning. Operational planning focuses on specific outcomes and initiatives to advance goals over the next year. It is most effective when delegated to individual business units and consolidated into a company-wide plan. This provides executives information to ensure strategic goals are achieved. The document also discusses how operational planning can help businesses cope with change, reduce uncertainty, and manage risk by exposing unknown factors and developing plans to address them.
This document provides information on active investment management strategies. It discusses how one financial advisor, Steve Miller, transitioned his practice over 20 years to focus on managing volatility and risk through active investment management. Miller works with third-party managers who use sophisticated strategies and constant market monitoring. The transition was gradual as Miller validated the effectiveness of active management, especially during market downturns. He works closely with clients to develop goals and specific risk profiles that the active strategies aim to address.
The document provides advice on investing during uncertain economic times. It recommends that investors focus on long-term goals rather than short-term predictions, build a diversified portfolio, and rebalance regularly. It suggests that the decline in stock prices provides an opportunity to add equities at lower prices. The summary emphasizes maintaining a diversified portfolio aligned with long-term goals rather than trying to time the market based on conflicting predictions.
This document discusses smart beta investing strategies. It begins with defining smart beta as rule-based investment strategies aimed at achieving superior risk-adjusted returns. Examples of strategies discussed include fundamental indexing and minimum volatility. The document then covers reasons for and against investing in smart beta, distinguishing smart beta from active management. It outlines how smart beta, indexing and active strategies can provide different sources of return. The presentation concludes by discussing considerations for selecting smart beta strategies and allocating among smart beta, indexing and active management.
An investment in mid-cap stocks would have significantly outperformed large and small cap stocks over the long term between 1979 and 2009. Mid-caps have exhibited a consistent record of outperformance relative to other market caps across various time periods. They also provide a better risk-reward relationship than other caps, participating in market upswings while avoiding much of the downside. Mid-cap performance follows predictable patterns over economic cycles. The current market environment is favorable for mid-caps, and including a mid-cap allocation has historically improved portfolio performance with minimal increased risk.
Smart Beta Investing - Trends and OpportunitiesAmit Sinha
Additional content available at www.focus262.com/blog
Presentation by Amit Sinha at the Copal Amba Breakfast Series that walks through the what, why and where of Smart Beta investing.
Beginning with what is smart beta, then moving to why investors can benefit from smart beta and concluding with where the industry is headed - highlighting the potential market opportunity, challenges, and business models followed by asset managers such as Dimensional, AQR, GSAM, etc.
Create an investment plan with our content ready Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides. The topic-specific asset allocation management presentation deck has various content ready PPT slides such as introduction to investments, objectives of portfolio management, types of investment, market scenario overview investment instruments, securities portfolio, analysis and valuation of equity securities, industry analysis PESTEL, SWOT analysis, discounted cash flow method, financial statement analysis, company cash flow statement, investment in special situations, fixed income and leveraged securities, bond valuation system, reinvestment risk table, type of convertible securities, options analysis, warrants summarization overview, derivative products, put and call options, stock index futures and options, stock indexes comparison table, broaden the investment perspective, international security market highlights, global market trends, mutual funds investment criteria overview, investment in real estate, diversified real estate classification, KPIs and dashboards, etc. Download the professionally designed investment analysis & portfolio management PowerPoint complete deck for portfolio risk and return analysis. Our Portfolio Management PowerPoint Presentation Slides team are like a bunch of cowboys. They enjoy being fast off the draw.
FiBAN's business angel training "Effectuation in Venture investing - Do exper...FiBAN
Presention shared by Dr. Robert Wiltbank at FiBAN's business angel training in Helsinki, 3rd of November.
All the presentations and videos are gathered here: https://www.fiban.org/robertwiltbank
Presentations given:
1. Comparison of Finnish and US angel activity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKdmr...
- Slides:
2. Angel Returns: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=juuAK...
- Slides:
3. Effective business angel strategies: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsZQd...
- Slides:
4. Effectuation in Venture investing - Do experts make decisions differently?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miWap...
- Slides
For additional details and questions: https://www.fiban.org/robertwiltbank
The document discusses risk management strategies for funds of funds in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. It emphasizes the importance of accurate risk measurement, including calculating simple statistics like returns, volatility, and value at risk. However, it notes that more advanced analysis is needed, including peer group analysis, regime switching analysis to understand performance in up and down markets, and accounting for non-normal distributions when calculating value at risk. Effective risk management requires establishing policies, procedures and infrastructure tailored to each firm's operating model and needs.
Insight Summit 2017: Intelligent Risk Taking - Active vs passive investing
Money management in equilibrium - Jonathan Berk, A.P. Giannini Professor of Finance, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University
Presented at the third annual Insight Summit conference held on 7 November 2017 by London Business School’s AQR Asset Management Institute.
Why Emerging Managers Now? - Infusion Global Partners WhitepaperAndrei Filippov
Traditional asset classes appear to offer uninspiring beta returns at present, and recent years’ hedge fund returns have disappointed both in magnitude and diversification benefits, likely reflecting capacity pressures associated with the concentration of AUM and inflows with larger funds. We argue that, by contrast, Emerging hedge funds offer a rich opportunity set with far fewer capacity issues where skilled managers with concrete competitive advantages in less efficient, smaller capitalization market segments can generate better, more sustainable and less correlated excess returns. Emerging managers do involve more investment and operational risk than larger peers; to that challenge we offer some suggestions on a thoughtful and rigorous approach to constructing an Emerging Managers allocation and balancing effective due diligence with scalability.
In All About Factors, we cover the basics of what factors are, where we expect them to derive their excess returns from, their advantages and disadvantages and if there is indeed any merit to this approach or if it just another Wall Street marketing gimmick.
After covering the commonly accepted factors basics, we discuss expectations for factor investing, the theory as to why short-term pain must be present for long-term return, and some key considerations in moving from the academic research to creating investible portfolios.
Also explored is the current on-going debate between industry titans Rob Arnott (Research Affiliates) and Cliff Asness (AQR) as to the efficacy of using valuation-based spreads to time factor exposures.
Lastly, we look at some different methods that a retail investor can utilize smart-beta investing, by highlighting some of the current industry techniques for diversifying factor exposures and building a multi-factor portfolio.
Do you know people are getting jobs via LinkedIn,Facebook and Twitter?It's more than that fun platform.Get the latest techniques for searching for your dream job and how to prepare a CV. Learn about the social media approach.
Content:
Definition of Stress
Types of Stress
The Stress Process
Common causes of Stress
Consequence of Stress.
Organizational and Life Stress
Factors Affecting on Job Stress
Managing Stress in Workplace.
Community Focused Discussion On Job lossKianga Moore
This document announces a community discussion to provide support and resources to those experiencing job loss or career transitions. Experts from various sectors will share their perspectives on coping with unemployment, updating resumes, health insurance options, and programs to assist with training or counseling. The discussion aims to help attendees discover solutions to get through temporary joblessness or make career changes by learning about unemployment benefits, education options, continuing health coverage, and alternative job searching tools.
This document discusses managing emotions after job loss and provides resources for finding new employment. It covers the five stages of grief after losing a job (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance), and emphasizes understanding one's emotions as the first step to moving forward. It then outlines various resources available, including assessing one's situation through the local workforce development center, getting finances in order, accessing social services if needed, networking for encouragement, and conducting an organized job search through Illinois workNet. The overall goal is to help people move through the emotions of job loss to acceptance and eventually back to new employment.
New Work Habits For A Radically Changing WorldEdgar Navarro
The document provides 13 ground rules for managing one's job during times of radical change in the workplace. It summarizes that the world of work is changing rapidly due to globalization, new technologies, and increased competition. To succeed, workers must adapt by becoming quick-change artists, committing fully to their work, accepting ambiguity, and continually upgrading their skills. The rules emphasize taking responsibility for outcomes, adding value as a service provider, and embracing change. Overall, the rules advise workers to take charge of their own career success in a work environment being rapidly transformed.
Resilience: Riding the Waves of Change. Transforming from Gutenberg to GoogleGomindSHIFT
The industrial mindset with hierarchy and command and control was a phenomenal tool for organizing and achieving scale. The role of the manager was created to coordinate the moving parts. As organizations have grown in complexity and the speed of communication has accelerated the business cycle the role of the manager is under siege. They can't keep up with change or navigate the complexity or organizations. The result is the role becomes spoofed in shows like the Office or movies like Office Space.
Communication platforms now provide the coordination and the situational awareness that managers once offered. The military calls the new shift to Power to the Edge.
The presentation traces how shifting communication platforms dramatically change the rules for business.
Leader just have not caught up yet.
COBI 2014 - Designing a Meta Model as the Foundation for Compliance CapabilityCaaS EU FP7 Project
The goal of this paper lead by FR, which was presented at the Cobi 2014 workshop as full paper, is to depict compliance concepts and the relations between them, as a conceptual meta-model. It aims to assist business analysts to extract compliance rules from compliance documents and to enable compliance enforcement in all the phases of business process lifecycle.
The client, a 30-year-old man, meets with a career counselor after losing his job of 10 years at a meat processing plant. He expresses feeling depressed and unable to support his family financially. The counselor listens empathetically and discusses administering career assessments and helping the client develop a resume to find temporary work while pursuing new training opportunities. The client leaves feeling hopeful about working with the counselor to set goals and make a plan for his future career path.
The document discusses the importance of sleep and outlines several key points:
- Sleep is regulated by circadian rhythms influenced by light and melatonin levels, and disruptions to these rhythms can negatively impact sleep.
- College students often do not get the recommended 8-9 hours of sleep per night, leading to poorer academic performance and health issues.
- Establishing a regular sleep schedule and relaxing pre-sleep routine can help improve sleep quality.
- Activities like exercise, caffeine, and screen time close to bedtime should be limited to promote better sleep.
The jobPrep mobile app provides job seekers, laid off workers, and workforce partners with tools and resources to assist with their job search and career preparation. It offers access to job listings, information on training programs, local services, articles and tips, events, and the ability to bookmark items. Users can search, filter and apply for jobs, as well as locate supportive resources in their area through the app.
Workplace Change and Transition by Catherine AdenleCatherine Adenle
Is your company currently undergoing major changes that will affect you or the staff in your organization? These changes are probably in response to the evolving needs of customers. They are made possible because of the change in economy, telecommunications and digital technology. And you can expect that they will result in significant reorganisation, improvements and profitability--all will result in success that all employees will share in future but navigating the change curve for you and others will be challenging. This presentation will provide tools and resources to help you cope with the change.
Risk Architecture and Financial Innovation October 2013Thomas Hu
This document discusses risk architecture and financial innovation in start-up investing. It covers several topics:
1) Financial technologies can facilitate goals but the industry should focus on goal facilitation, not wealth privatization. A feasible architecture relies on risk management.
2) Investing in start-ups requires understanding risk/return profiles and how firms allocate cash flows. Challenges include uncertainty, low frequency cash flows, and expectation shortfalls.
3) Value creation involves managing convexity and optionality for asymmetric payoffs skewed to the upside. Fostering environments for positive convexity and rare exponential growth is important.
The documents discuss developing a new strategic decision-making framework that can withstand volatility. It proposes splitting value drivers into market drivers and model drivers to provide stability. A key part of the framework is understanding the full return exposure, including downside and upside, rather than single-point forecasts. It also emphasizes identifying and utilizing options within investment, operating, and ownership models to influence return exposure. Testing potential return outcomes under different scenarios is presented as an important way to apply the framework and understand the impact of strategic decisions.
The document discusses how organizations in the Middle East are facing a "perfect storm" of crises due to the Arab Spring uprisings, ongoing effects of the global financial crisis, and uncertain global economic conditions. It argues that integrating strategic planning and budgeting processes is critical for organizations to balance short-term needs with long-term priorities during turbulent times. Specifically, it recommends linking strategy to budgets, improving cost/benefit analysis of projects, aligning employee goals with performance management, and streamlining monitoring systems to focus on strategic objectives and resource expenditures.
Book Recommendation: Waring, M. Barton. Pension Finance – Putting the Risks and Costs of Defined Benefit Plans Back under Your Control. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2012. Print
Tellusant - Strategy Guide: The Modern and Scientific Synthesis for CEOsTellusant, Inc.
This document provides an overview of strategic planning frameworks and processes. It begins with definitions of strategy, operations, and tactics. It then reviews classical strategic planning frameworks like SCP, five forces, resource-based view, and cascade of choices. The document introduces Tellusant's new strategic planning framework called EMIO, which incorporates elements of the classical frameworks. It also includes a dynamic component focused on emerging trends. The document then discusses issues with traditional strategic planning processes and outlines Tellusant's new process, which aims to streamline planning given its nature as a higher-order cognitive process. The goal is to improve strategic planning performance and decision making.
JACK O. VANCEThe Anatomy ofa Corporate Strategyp- MO.docxvrickens
JACK O. VANCE
The Anatomy of
a Corporate Strategy
p- MORE AND MORE companies are coming to real-
ize the significance of a suitable corporate strategy
to the continued prosperity of their enterprises. The
best approaches to the development of a corporate
strategy, however, are not clear. In this article I
want to say a few words about the meaning of strat-
egy, to illustrate two current major forces that un-
derscore the necessity for skillfully developed com-
pany strategies, and then to examine three key fac-
tors of great importance in developing an aggres-
sive corporate strategy.
The Nature of Corporate Strategy.—Corporate
sti-ategy fundamentally is the deployment of re-
sources to achieve an objective. It refers to an im-
portant action which can be taken with respect to
any aspect of a business. Corporate strategy can be
formulated formally in a systematic long-range
planning program or intuitively in the brain of a top
manager of a business. Regardless of where and
how a strategy is developed, it—and the process that
created it—is vital to a business organization be-
F A L L / 1970 / V O L . X I I I / N O . 1
cause it determines tlie major dii-ections a company
takes and the momentum with which it moves.
As Seymour Tilles notes, ". . . while the notion of
a strategy is extremely easy to grasp, working out
an agreed-upon statement for a given company can
be a fundamental contribution to the organization's
future success."^ In addition, in today's intensely dy-
namic environment, the internal and extemal forces
on profitability accentuate the advantages of strate-
gic planning. Therefore, developing and sustaining
an ongoing corporate strategy is vital to the long-
term viability of the organization.
Ceorge Steiner believes that "Developing a strat-
egy is usually a very diflBcult and fateful task. It
usually means questioning old methods, exploring
unfamiliar environmental waters, facing up to an
objective evaluation of strengths and weaknesses,
forcing important changes on people in the firm and
organizational arrangements, and taking high risks
with the firm's capital. This has to be done in a
world of rapid change, and it has to be done contin-
uously."^
Textbooks suggest that, ideally, every corporate
body have a strategy that meets three criteria.
• It recognizes and understands how the forces of
the past have affected the organization.
• It is responsive to the current forces of change.
• It is capahle of implementing programs hased on
the first two considerations.
By constructively integrating the knowledge gained
from past experiences, the organization should be
able to determine and formulate a program that
projects into the future to embrace products, mar-
kets, earnings, debt position, ownership, and rates
of growth. Also, a corporate strategy must be dy-
namic enough to burst through the limiting bounda-
ries imposed by tunnel vision, yet flexible enough to
withstand or thwart a possible distraction or con-
fl ...
This section defines systematic return strategies and discusses their benefits compared to traditional assets. Systematic strategies invest according to predefined, nondiscretionary rules based on public information. They aim to capture specific risk premia embedded in assets. Systematic strategies tend to have lower and more stable average correlations than traditional assets like stocks and bonds. This allows investors to gain more direct access to less correlated risk premia through systematic strategies, improving portfolio efficiency.
As executives charged with the task of putting banking on a new commercial course,
you need to be armed with trustworthy, complete facts and analysis. For that, the
institution needs to adopt a business analytics framework. Decisions will then be based
on reliable information and predictive insight – adjusted for known risks across the
institution’s business units, functional areas and channels. For more info: www.nafcu.org/sas
Scenarios are a powerful strategic planning tool that can help organizations prepare for unexpected events. Scenarios have three main advantages: they expand thinking beyond a single forecast by considering a range of possible futures; they uncover inevitable or near-inevitable outcomes driven by powerful trends; and they protect against "groupthink" by providing a framework for contrarian thinking. However, scenarios also have limitations and can set traps if not used carefully. The document discusses how to thoughtfully construct scenarios and avoid common pitfalls to maximize their benefits.
Ignacio Velez-Pareja : From the Slide Rule to the Black BerryFuturum2
1. The document discusses using financial modeling as a tool for business valuation and value management, rather than just for transactions like selling or buying a company.
2. It proposes developing a comprehensive financial model with traditional statements plus a cash budget to estimate how decisions impact future cash flows and value. This allows management to proactively shape the future rather than just reacting to the past.
3. The model incorporates factors like inflation, growth, and policies to evaluate risks and test scenarios. It is based on double-entry accounting to help ensure accuracy and identify errors.
Welcome to the fifth edition of Outline, Redington’s quarterly collection of thought-pieces designed to help institutional investors make smarter and more informed decisions.
This edition features short articles on the future of pensions policy, the complexities of running a pension scheme and how technology can help overcome them, risks inherent from gilt and swap rate differences, an outcome-driven approach to fund management, a review of asset classes in 2013, plus an overview of the global macro environment.
We hope you find the articles interesting and helpful as you consider how best to manage the risk-adjusted return of your portfolios
A Bridge Too Far? Risk Appetite, Governance and Corporate Strategy (Whitepaper)NAFCU Services Corporation
“Many firms have made progress in developing their risk appetite frameworks and have
begun multiyear projects to improve the supporting IT infrastructure,” said David M.
Wallace, Global Financial Services Marketing Manager at SAS. “As a provider of risk
solutions, we have seen much more interest over the past three years in firms looking to
have additional technology to support a firmwide view of risk exposures. Learn more at: www.nafcu.org/sas
This document summarizes the key topics from the April 2014 issue of the ICV Bulletin published by the International Controller Association. It discusses the challenges of volatility faced by controllers, the importance of risk management, and highlights some of the presentations from the 8th International Controller Congress on innovative controlling solutions. It also provides a translated summary of an article on the future of finance and what it will take for the finance function to adapt. Lastly, it introduces one of the ICV board members, Karl-Heinz Steinke, and his long career with Lufthansa.
Manigent Aligning Risk Appetite And ExposureAndrew Smart
This document discusses aligning an organization's risk appetite and risk exposure through strategic execution. It argues that successful strategy execution in the post-credit crisis world requires balancing risk appetite and exposure within the context of clear strategic objectives. The document provides a roadmap for organizations to determine strategic objectives, define risk appetite, identify key risks, review risk appetite in light of key risks, conduct risk assessments, and map risk exposure to risk appetite using a risk appetite and exposure matrix. Following this process allows organizations to integrate risk management into strategic decision making.
The document discusses various topics related to company valuation and investment analysis. It addresses two main types of valuation approaches - relative valuation which compares financial ratios to peers, and absolute valuation which calculates the present value of future cash flows. It emphasizes the importance of discounted cash flow analysis for valuing firms and assessing investment decisions. The document also discusses factors important for investors such as a company's cash burn rate, liquidity runway, and developing an exit strategy.
The document discusses how insurers are reconsidering their fixed income and private asset investment strategies in response to persistent low interest rates and slow economic growth. It finds that insurers are increasingly focused on absolute returns, diversification through private markets like real estate and infrastructure, and managing duration risk over book yield. However, barriers like lack of suitable opportunities and regulatory uncertainty remain challenges for increasing allocations to private assets. The report surveys global insurers and analyzes their evolving investment outlook.
Blueprint for sustainability minimizing expenses across foreign supply-chain...The ABC Group LLC
Our vast experience across multiple industries in China has shown us that the most effective businesses approach their foreign infrastructure in a systematic fashion. A successful process typically includes three key components that preside over larger strategic considerations and day-to-day operations alike: designing a methodology to identify viable opportunities; evaluating and minimizing unnecessary expenses; and committing to continually pursue new growth strategies.
Portfolio Management in times of uncertainty
Sandie Grimshaw
Balancing your change portfolio
APM Portfolio Management SIG Conference 2017,
11 May 17,
Holiday Inn Bloomsbury, London
There are different Strategic Innovation methodologies, frameworks and models that aid organizations, particularly with technology driven, production companies. Most companies must innovate and continually improve to maintain a competitive advantage, but how they accomplish these process improvements differs significantly from Strategic Innovation. Traditional strategies rely on process improvements and product development through lessons learned, adoption of internal and external best practices, and improvements that are incremental and nature that are often found in Total Quality Management programs. Strategic Innovation requires a culture that can create breakthroughs within a company’s current market, and potentially enter a new market or segment. Strategic Innovation, and the implementation models that follow, are not for every organization, and a review of traditional strategies and risks associated with Strategic Innovation will be covered.
ProSocial Behaviour - Applied Social Psychology - Psychology SuperNotesPsychoTech Services
A proprietary approach developed by bringing together the best of learning theories from Psychology, design principles from the world of visualization, and pedagogical methods from over a decade of training experience, that enables you to: Learn better, faster!
Covey says most people look for quick fixes. They see a big success and want to know how he did it, believing (and hoping) they can do the same following a quick bullet list.
But real change, the author says, comes not from the outside in, but from the inside out. And the most fundamental way of changing yourself is through a paradigm shift.
That paradigm shift is a new way of looking at the world. The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People presents an approach to effectiveness based on character and principles.
The first three habits indeed deal with yourself because it all starts with you. The first three habits move you from dependence from the world to the independence of making your own world.
Habits 4, 5 and 6 are about people and relationships. The will move you from independence to interdependence. Such, cooperating to achieve more than you could have by yourself.
The last habit, habit number 7, focuses on continuous growth and improvement.
Stealth attraction for mens gets her with your wordsichettrisagar95
My article gives a set of techniques used by men to subtly and effectively attract women without overtly displaying their intentions. It involves using non-verbal cues, body language, and subtle psychological tactics to create intrigue and build attraction. The goal is to appear confident, mysterious, and charismatic while maintaining an air of mystery that piques the interest of the person you are trying to attract. This approach emphasizes subtlety and finesse in communication and interaction to create a powerful and lasting impression.
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This presentation delves into the core principles of personality development as taught by Tim Han. Understand the importance of self-awareness, goal setting, and maintaining a positive attitude. Gain valuable tips on improving communication skills and developing emotional intelligence. Tim Han’s practical advice and holistic approach will help you embark on a transformative journey towards becoming your best self.
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Understanding of Self - Applied Social Psychology - Psychology SuperNotes
Managing amid uncertainty dtt
1. Deloitte Research
A study by Deloitte Consulting and Deloitte & Touche
Managing Amid
UNCERTAINTY
New thinking on how to win in a volatile world
2. 20
What is the best way to cope with an
unpredictable economic cycle? That
depends – on the length and depth of
recessionsandthestrengthandbreadthof
recovery. Theproblemisthatthesecritical
variables are unknown and unknowable.
What is needed is a new way to manage
that embraces uncertainty rather than
largelyignoringit.
4. 2
The Futility of Forecasting
As the last decade drew to a close, prominent economists were
claimingthe“endofthebusinesscycle”andpermanenteconomic
growth.1
After a decade of expansion in the US,such optimism
appeared justified. As late as July 2000, consensus forecasts
envisioned 3.2% growth for the US economy in 2001.2
As 2000
wore on,these forecasts grew ever more pessimistic, with some
callingforrecessioninperhapsthesecondorthirdquarterof2001,
but recovery was typically predicted for late 2001. By the last
quarter of 2001, the US National Bureau of Economic Research
haddecidedthattheeconomyhadactuallybeeninrecessionsince
March2001. Asoflate2001,recoverywaspredictedformid-2002,
with the proviso that the threat of continued terrorism could be
contained.So much for the end of the business cycle.
This phenomenon of constantly revised and ever-inaccurate
forecasts is hardly new. But despite the dismal track record, we
can’t shake loose our desire to forecast – primarily because
strategy-building seems to demand it.Companies must ramp up
or mothball production capacity, launch or shelve marketing
initiatives,expand or contract their sales forces,and accelerate or
idle their product development pipelines. Most executives seek
to base these decisions on projections of what lies over the
horizon.
Suchforesighthasalwaysbeenbeyondreach,andthefutility
of prediction has long been an open secret. Faced with the
watershed events of September 11,2001,many are now voicing
that skepticism and have become convinced that forecasting the
future is a fruitless endeavor. The Economist recently noted that,
“economic forecasting, always speculative, is now close to
impossible”. This abandonment of our always tenuous predictive
powers has even permeated corporate budgeting cycles. Dick
Kovacevich, CEO of Wells Fargo & Co., said it well to his board:
“Whatever budget we come up with is almost meaningless.”3
Introduction
Traditional approaches to strategic planning rely for their success
on accurate predictions of the future. But the nature of the
uncertainty that imbues almost every aspect of today’s business
environmenthasmadepredictionandevenforecastingessentially
useless. And since many significant but unforeseen threats and
opportunities crop up faster than firms can respond to them,
neither can executives rely on“agility”as a mechanism for coping
withuncertainty.Consequently,today’scompetitiveenvironment
demands a new approach to strategic planning. This report
presents just such a framework – Strategic Flexibility.
Strategic Flexibility builds upon the established practices of
scenario-based planning and strategy formulation,but combines
them with insights drawn from the emerging field of real options
to create something entirely new. The result is an approach to
strategicplanningandstrategyimplementationthatisabsolutely
indispensable to today’s global enterprises.
Andsoalthoughitistruethatuncertaintypermeatesourlives,
this fact need not paralyze informed action.Companies that are
stategicallyflexiblenotonlycopewithuncertainty,butalsoexploit
it.
5. DeloitteResearch–ManagingAmidUncertainty
3
What this suggests is that when strategies have failed – from
international expansion plans to growth initiatives – they have
done so not necessarily because they were bad strategies,but in
alllikelihoodbecauseinimplementingthosestrategiesmanagers
ran afoul of unanticipated events, such as slower-than-expected
trade liberalization or economies thrown into recession.It is not
ourstrategicthinkingthatfailsus,perse,butourcontinuedreliance
on our inability to predict the future.
Undertheseconditions,therisksinvolvedinbuildingstrategy
on inevitably inaccurate predictions stand out in sharp relief.
For example,consider two firms formulating their strategies
in the teeth of a recession. The first firm – call it Optimist Inc. –
predicates its strategy on a short, shallow recession and so
minimizesitsrestructuringefforts,investsasheavilyaspossiblein
new product development, and keeps advertising spending
relatively high.This is a strategy of staying visible to consumers,
ready to satisfy their soon-to-be-rekindled demand,and creating
shareholder value through growth.
Contrastthiswithasecondfirm–PessimistCo.–thatforesees
aJapan-stylerecessionconsistingofadecadeormoreofsluggish
growth in the overall economy, marked by slow or shrinking
international trade and lower productivity. This sort of forecast
demands much more severe cost cutting efforts and a focus on
free cash flow in order to reward shareholders.
If each of these firms pursues its prediction-based strategy,
one of them is going to be caught out.In the event of a relatively
short recession,Optimist Inc.will be well positioned for renewed
expansion, while Pessimist Co. will incur large opportunity costs
in forgone growth, potentially be shut out of future markets
altogether,andconsequentlyforcedintobankruptcyorsoldtoits
faster-growing competitors.
Conversely, should the recession prove long or especially
painful,PessimistCo.willhaveguessedright.OptimistInc.,however,
will no longer be seen as having implemented a bold growth
strategy.Instead,itwillhavebeenprofligatewithscarceresources
that should have,in hindsight,been husbanded more carefully.
Such a tale is not merely a Kipling-esque just-so story;there
are real-life examples of companies relying on opposite
assumptions when preparing for the future. For example,Airbus,
the European aircraft maker, decided to bet that the downturn
will be short, declining to lay off any workers at all so as not to
jeopardize its ability to respond to the upturn. In contrast,its US-
based rival Boeing announced plans to lay off tens of thousands
of workers based on its view that demand for jetliners will remain
depressed for a long time to come.4
In either case, someone wins and someone loses. But the
winner is not the better strategist, or even the better predictor.
The winner is simply lucky.
There has to be a better way.
6. 4
ANTICIPATEANTICIPATE
Each of these shapes constitutes not a prediction of how the
economywillrecover–forthatwouldsimplyreplaceconventional
strategy’s single inaccurate prediction with four inaccurate ones.
Rather, each one is a form of boundary marker, and collectively
the scenarios serve to limn the future,rather than predict it.
Inotherwords,asetofscenariosmarksouta“possibilityspace”,
with detailed scenarios serving as buoys in uncertain and
potentially turbulent waters. Carving out this possibility space
servesbothtobroadenourhorizons,allowingustothinkcreatively
andexpansivelyaboutwhatmighthappen,whileatthesametime
defining a finite set of possible futures within which a company
might have to operate.
FIGURE 1. THE STRATEGIC FLEXIBILITY FRAMEWORK
SOURCE:DELOITTE CONSULTING ANALYSIS
FORMULATE
ACCUMULATE
ANTICIPATE FORMULATE
ACCUMULATE
ANTICIPATE
s Identify drivers of change
s Define the range of possible
futures
s Develop scenarios
s Develop an optimal strategy for
each scenario
s Compare optimal strategies to
define“core”and“contingent”
elements
s Acquire those elements needed to
implement the core strategies
s Take options on elements
needed for contingent strategies
OPERATEOPERATE
s Execute the core strategy
s Monitor the environment
s Exercise or abandon options as
appropriate
Applying Strategic Flexibility
A premise of our approach to coping with the current
environment is that it is futile to try to position oneself for any
specificsetofconditionsthatmightbeahead.Theoddsofgetting
it right are too low,and the costs of getting it wrong are too high.
Strategic Flexibility responds to this challenge with a
four-phase approach that overcomes the paradox of traditional
strategy models by abandoning entirely the need to predict the
future,yetstillpositioningfirmstorespondtothreatsorcapitalize
on opportunities they are likely to encounter (see Figure 1.The
Strategic Flexibility Framework).
Consider each of the four phases in turn.
Strategic flexibility begins by developing a set of scenarios that
boundfuturepossibilitiesalongdimensionsofparticularinterest.
Inthecaseofpositioningoneselftocopewiththebusinesscycle,
it can be useful to think of scenarios for recovery in terms of the
fourstereotypical“shapes”thatthecycleofrecessionandrecovery
typically has – aV,U,W,or L (see Figure 2.Scenarios for Recovery)
FORMULATEFORMULATE
Withthesescenariosinplace,thenextstepistocreateanoptimal
strategyforeachscenariousingtheconventionaltoolsofstrategy
formulation.Inthecaseofourfourscenariosforeconomicrecovery,
most executives would probably make short work of developing
anoptimalstrategyforagivenrecoveryprofile.Toldwithcertainty
thatarecessionwilllasteightmonthswithnoquarterlyeconomic
7. DeloitteResearch–ManagingAmidUncertainty
5
ACCUMULATEACCUMULATE
FIGURE 2. BUSINESS CYCLE SCENARIOS
SOURCE:DELOITTE RESEARCH
The“V”
Threetoninemonthsofeconomicslowdown.
Rapidreturntopre-recessiongrowthrates.
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
0%
TIME
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
0%
TIME
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
0%
TIME
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
0%
TIME
The“L”
Severalyearsofeconomicdecline.
Unsureandslowreturntomodestgrowthrates.
The“U”
Twelvetoeighteenmonthsofeconomicdecline.
Gradualreturntoacceptablegrowthrates.
The“W”
A“doubledip”recessionlastingonetothreeyears.
Tentativereturntolong-runaveragegrowthrates.
contraction more severe than negative 0.5%, and a rapid
resumption of persistent 3.5% growth,the appropriate response
is clear:to the extent possible,ignore the recession.
This strategy formulation effort must be undertaken for each
of the other scenarios as well.Various combinations of business-
as-usual, cost-cutting, and a measured return to expansion
constitute appropriate responses to each of the four possible
recovery profiles presented in Figure 2.
So far, all this accomplishes is to multiply the work of the
strategist: instead of developing one strategy, she must now
develop several.However,the power of this approach emerges in
an analysis of the commonalities and differences between these
optimal strategies.
Specifically, those initiatives suggested by all of the optimal
strategies constitute the organization’s core strategy – a strategy
that can be pursued confident in the knowledge that it will be a
useful response to whatever future emerges.Initiatives specific to
a particular optimal strategy are called contingent strategies.
Examples of core strategies might include investment in
customer relationship management capabilities, adopting
shareholder-focused performance metrics, and investing in
training and human resources development. On the contingent
side,massive layoffs can make sense in the event of an extended
economic contraction, while investments in foreign markets,
new product development, and expanding capacity through
acquisition are each keyed to specific types of economic
expansion.
Firmshavehistoricallybeenforcedtopicktheirbestguessofwhat
thefuturewillholdandrespondbyimplementingasinglestrategy
keyed to the demands of that set of assumptions.However,given
the fundamental impossibility of predicting, this approach will
inevitability lead to potentially bitter regret (see Figure 3. The
Benefit of Hindsight Is Regret).
8. 6
DeloitteResearchStudies
Strategic Flexibility in the Communications Industry: Coping
with uncertainty in a world of billion-dollar bets.
StrategicFlexibilityintheFinancialServicesIndustry: Creating
competitive advantage out of competitive turbulence.
StrategicFlexibilityintheEnergySector: Competinginadecade
of uncertainty,2000-2010.
Strategic Flexibility in Life Sciences: From discovering the
unknown to exploiting the uncertain (forthcoming).
Strategic Flexibility in the Media Industry: Reel options in the
pursuit of digital convergence (forthcoming).
Deloitte Research has been developing the concept of strategic flexibility for over two years.Through a series of
industry-specific research reports and other publications,Deloitte Research professionals, in collaboration with
their Deloitte Consulting and Deloitte &Touche colleagues,have created a body of work that articulates the four
phase strategic flexibility framework and demonstrates its usefulness in a wide range of applications.
Many of the items below are available from Deloitte Research at www.dc.com/research or upon request at
delresearch@dc.com.
OtherPublications
“Real Options in Real Organizations” Creating and exercising
real options through corporate diversification. Chapter 2 in
Innovation and Strategy, Operating Flexibility, and Foreign
Investment:New Developments and Applications in Real Options.
L.Trigeorgis (ed.) Oxford University Press,2002.
“Real Options and Restructuring the Communications
Industry”TelecomInvestor,December 2001.
“Lead from the Center”How to manage divisions dynamically.
Harvard Business Review,May 2001.
“TrackingStocksandtheAcquisitionofRealOptions”Journal
of Applied Corporate Finance,Summer 2000.
“Hidden in Plain Sight” Hybrid diversification, economic
performance,and real options in corporate strategy,in Winning
StrategiesinaDeconstructingWorld,J.Wiley & Sons,2000.
6
9. DeloitteResearch–ManagingAmidUncertainty
7
Developing a complement of core and contingent strategies
provides insights into the resources a company has and those it
absolutelyneeds,mightormightnotneed,anddoesn'tneed. This
in turn highlights some obvious guidelines for action (see Figure
4. A Framework for Accumulating Resources). These existing
resourcesnotapplicabletoanyfuturescenarioshouldbedisposed
of,while those that are needed for any scenarios should be kept
andmaintained. Investmentsneededforonlysomepossiblefuture
should be scaled back to a level commensurate with the
probability of actually needing them.
HumanResources
Inthehumanresourcesfield,oneofthechallengesofrecessionary
economies is how to cut costs by laying off people without
destroying the value that has been built up in a firm’s human
capital.After all, there are few organizations that wouldn’t claim
proudly that their most valuable asset is their people;but there is
no denying that one of the most significant quick-hit cost cutting
measures for many firms is in headcount reduction.
To cope with this contradiction, Cisco Systems has found a
way to create real options on its long-term-valuable, yet short-
term-expensive,human assets.
Faced with the need to cut costs by reducing its salary
expense, in April 2001, Cisco offered 80 employees a unique
opportunity:rather than be dismissed outright,they could work
fornon-profitorganizationsaspartofanewprogramthecompany
initiated called the Cisco Community Fellowship Program.
Participants in the program agree to work for one year as a full-
time employee of the non-profit organization while being paid
by Cisco just one-third of their pay but keeping their benefits and
stockplans.TheyalsoretainedaccesstoCisco’straining,continuing
education,and e-learning.At the end of the year,the employees
will receive an additional two months salary at the one-third rate
and will be considered internal candidates for any jobs that
become available.
Those resources that the firm does not hold and that are
irrelevant to any possible future should be avoided, and those
relevanttoallpossiblefutureshouldbeaccquired. Butwhatabout
resources the company doesn't have but needs in case certain
threatsandopportunitiesemergeasdepictedinitsscenarios,but
not otherwise? The fundamental challenge that the Strategic
Flexibility framework solves is how to prepare for multiple
possible futures – each of which requires different responses –
simultaneously. This is done through the creative application
of real options. Real options are small-scale investments in
capabilities a firm might need which confer the right,but not the
obligation, to invest more money in the future in order to fully
deploy that capability. The power of this approach is evident in
the activities of some leading companies in different functional
areas.
SOURCE:DELOITTE RESEARCH
Sell
None All Some
Resources
the firm
has
Keep and
maintain
Scale back
AvoidResources
the firm
doesn’t
have
Acquire Take real
options
These are elements of
the“core” strategy
These are elements of
“contingent”strategies
FIGURE 4. A FRAMEWORK FOR ACCUMULATING RESOURCES
RELEVANTTOWHICH SCENARIOS
FIGURE 3. THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT IS REGRET
SOURCE:DELOITTE RESEARCH
ACTION
Sell off the widget division
Lay off 5,000 workers
Restrict new investments
HINDSIGHT
The upturn started the day we
sold it and now it’s making
money for the buyer
We should have laid off 10,000
since the recession had another
two years to run
Could’ve bought Acme Inc.for a
song and positioned ourselves
for the gadget mania
10. 8
This approach clearly has costs for Cisco – it is paying people
who are not working for the company. However, if the economy
recovers in the next twelve months to a point that Cisco wants
them back,they can be rehired.If the economy remains sluggish,
andtheirservicesarenotrequired,Ciscocanthendecidetoeither
let them go or,perhaps,renew the agreement.
Inotherwords,theone-thirdsalarythatCiscopayscreatesan
option on the services of these employees – an option that will
come into the money in the event that the recession is short and
these employees’ services are required within one year. Since a
short recession is certainly a possibility,this option on potentially
valuable human resources has allowed Cisco to accumulate the
contingent resources associated with a particular scenario while
simultaneouslycuttingcostsinordertorespondtotheexigencies
of the current environment.
Marketing
Bell Canada, the dominant local and long distance
telecommunications services provider in Canada, is one division
among many in the portfolio of BCE Inc.Other operating units in
the BCE family include Bell Mobility, a wireless network services
provider, Sympatico, an internet service provider and internet
portal,andExpressvu,thenation’slargestsatellitetelevisionservice
provider,to name only three.
BCE’sstrategyisexplicitlyconvergence-driven.Thatis,thefirm
is aiming to develop and deploy a number of new services that
either bundle existing services or create entirely new ones by
combining the offerings of its various operating units.
A critical element of successfully executing this convergence
strategyisanintegratedcustomerservicemanagementcapability,
customer service representatives and call centers are simply too
expensive to replicate across all of BCE’s stand-alone and
convergence-based product and service offerings.
Consequently, within Bell Canada, the beginnings of such a
capability are under development. The initiative, called
OneContact, is intended to deploy customized Siebel customer
relationship management (CRM) software to specially-trained
customerservicerepresentatives(CSRs)sothatinquiriesfromany
of BCE’s 8 million customers concerning any of its vast array of
products can all be addressed through a single customer service
infrastructure.
But reaching that goal is cannot be done in one giant leap.5
Not only is such an undertaking extremely challenging
operationally,buttheuncertaintiessurroundingtheextentofthe
capabilities needed are enormous. There are issues with the
technology to be sorted out, such as how difficult will it be to
integratethecustomerdatabasesofBCE’sdifferentdivisions.There
aremarketplacequestionstobeanswered: whatproductbundles
will work; which convergence services will succeed and need
supporting, and which customer segments will benefit from an
integrated customer service capability? And there are
organizational issues to sort out: who will be responsible for
managing the implementation of such an aggressive
transformation; and how will the new customer service
infrastructure coordinate with the rapidly changing suite of
services being developed in the operating divisions?
Bell Canada’s solution to these problems is to launch
OneContactasapilotprojectaimedatcross-sellingtoBellMobility
services existing Bell Canada customers. For an initial investment
of C$10 million,the company has demonstrated that it can“light
up the screens” with a customized, cross-divisional CRM system
thatcombinescustomerinformationfromthetwooperatingunits.
Rolledouttoacarefullytargetedgroupof100,000customers,the
newcapabilityisdesignedtoincreaseandaccelerateBellMobility’s
penetration of the Canadian wireless market.
Designingtheinitialrolloutinthiswaymaximizesthechances
ofsuccess. Mobilephoneserviceisawell-establishedofferingwith
good growth potential: mobile phone penetration in Canada is
about 35%,and is expected to exceed 50% within the next three
tofiveyears. Furthermore,aswirelineandwirelessphoneservices
becomeincreasinglyinterchangeableinthemindsofconsumers,
convergence between these two divisions is the likeliest to prove
viableintheshortterm. Consequently,anintegratedBellCanada/
Bell Mobility CRM capability is likeliest to prove worthwhile.
11. DeloitteResearch–ManagingAmidUncertainty
9
ResearchandDevelopment
The automobile industry has long struggled with the notion of
what comes after the internal combustion engine (ICE).Electric
carsseemtheanswer-buthowtopowerthem?Batteriesseemed
promisingforawhile,nolonger.Lackingaccelerationandrange,
andrequiringacompletelynewinfrastructuretorechargethem,
the batterypowered vehicle will likely remain confined to golf
greens.
Anotheralternativeisthefuelcell.Combininghydrogenand
oxygen and adding a little energy results in water and electric
current.Thesedevicesseemedmuchmoreintriguing,promising
to overcome the key limitations of batteries. Consequently,
General Motors and many other automakers began working
furiously, both on their own and in conjunction with smaller
companies focused on fuel cell technology,to develop the fuel
cell-driven car.
Such devices are still a long way from viable,however.Fuel
cellsremaintoobig,tooheavy,andtooexpensiveasviablepower
sourcesofautomobiles.Itwilltakemanybillionsofdollarsmore
andmanyyearstoadvancethetechnologytothepointthatthe
ICE is endangered.
Faced with a recessionary economy,budgets for such long
termandexpensiveresearchcancomeunderparticularpressure.
GeneralMotors,though,hashituponaninnovativesolution.The
fuelcelltechnologydevelopedsofarisalongwayfrompowering
your car - but the refridgerator-size units are well up to the task
of keeping the lights on in your home or small office building.7
Entering what the utilities industry calls “distributed
generation technology” seems on the face of it to be
diversification away from their core automotive business, and
theonewouldthinkthatthelastthinganycompanycantolerate
is taking their eye off the ball during a tough market. But this
move actually serves two purposes.First,it enables GM to begin
to earn a return on its significant investment in fuel cell
technology,whichisnotonlygoodforshareholders,butwillalso
allow the firm to maintain and sustain the human capital it has
At the same time, this pilot provides valuable learning
opportunities,and constitutes a real option on expanding both the
scale of the current integrated OneContact offering – that is,rolling
it out to more customers – and the scope – that is, including the
services of other services from other BCE divisions.
The result is that BCE has remained conservative in making
potentially large investments in expanding its CRM capabilities,but
istargetingitsinvestmentdollarsinsuchawaythattheyarecreating
optionsonexpandingtheirprojectsintheeventofincreasingmarket
enthusiasm.
Operations
FleetBoston Financial and Morgan Stanley created Clareon in
mid-2001, a joint venture with the mandate to develop
internet-based payments systems that lower processing costsfor
high-value transactions.6
Clareon’s primary service offering, Paymode, targets financial
institutions’ cash management customers. Upon completing a
transaction,thesellergeneratesaninvoiceontheinternetandsends
ittothebuyer.Theinvoiceisapprovedbythebuyer,whothensends
payment and remittance information to Clareon,which then debits
and credits the appropriate accounts.
FleetBoston intends to offer PayMode to its 500,000 cash
management customers,and the business is expected to generate
revenues of in excess of US$1 billion.With that much at stake, it is
critical to have a fully functional service from day one.
Tothatend,FleetBostonispilotingPayModeonitsowninternal
billing processes. This approach is especially creative, for it allows
FleetBoston to explore an important costcutting opportunity while
simultaneouslycreatinganoptiononarevenueenhancinginitiative.
If internal deployment proves effective at cutting FleetBoston’s
costs, the bank will have removed some of the uncertainty
concerningtheusefulnessofthetechnologytoitscashmanagement
customers.Inotherwords,itwillhavedemonstratedthattheoption
on PayMode is“in the money,”and so the incremental investment
needed to introduce PayMode as a competitive service offering is
justified.
12. 10
OPERATEOPERATE
environment, passing information up and down a traditional
hierarchy introduces time lags in decision making that doom a
company to miss fleeting opportunities.
Devolvingauthorityinthiswayisarguablytherightapproach
if the objective is to create an organization that is nimble – as
opposed to flexible.Nimble organizations attempt to respond to
the environment around them by changing just as fast as it does.
However,inawidevarietyofindustries–fromthefinancialservices
businesstotelecommunications,hightechmanufacturing,media,
utilities,and pharmaceuticals,among others – responding in real
time as uncertainties are resolved is frequently not a viable
alternative.
The investment lead times are too long,the implementation
challenges too significant, and the market opportunities too
fleeting. The answer for these industries is to become flexible
throughthekindofadvancepreparationthatmakesitpossibleto
change quickly by calling upon capabilities that the firm has
developed to cope with the demands of a variety of scenarios.
In the case of Cisco,for example,the firm positioned itself to
respond quickly in the event of rapid growth following a short
recession by taking a real option on its valuable human capital.
This is a smart move, because it can take a great deal of time –
indeed, perhaps many years – for new employees to equal the
productivity of long-time members of the organization. But
recovery can arrive in a matter of just weeks.
When an organization accumulates resources through these
typesofrealoptions,decentralizeddecision-makingprocessesare
generally inadequate. Making such investments requires a
long-term perspective and horizon-scanning capabilities that are
typically a strength of a company’s most senior executives.Thus,
creating flexibility in the Accumulate phase by acquiring the
appropriate real options is uniquely the purview of the corporate
office.
developed over the years. Second, and perhaps much more
valuable, is the real option this move creates on developing fuel
cell powered automobiles. Using the distributed generation
market as a proving ground for its fuel cell technology and
manufacturing techniques, GM will gain invaluable information
about the long-term viability of fuel cells as powerplants for
automobiles.
What GM learns from these initial,and potentially profitable,
forays into non-automotive applications of fuel cell technology
will put the firm in a much better position to determine how
aggressively to pursue fuel cell automobile engines in the future.
If the knowledge gained suggests that fuel cells are a viable
alternative to the ICE – that is,if the option appears to be coming
into the money – then GM can exercise the option by devoting
more research to extending the technology to the car market.
Alternatively, the firm can sell off its distributed generation
business - that is, abandon the option - and begin as the search
for a successor to the gasoline engine.
The organizational implications of mobilizing a company around
strategic flexibility are enormous.8
Whereas the challenges of
traditional strategy implementation have concerned aligning the
behaviors of many people with a single,clear vision of the future,
companies must now enable people to cope with uncertainty –
and the resulting multi-track approach of core and contingent
strategies.Making this shift poses a number of unique challenges
totraditionalthinkingontheroleofmanagers,,andespeciallythe
corporate office of diversified firms.
Conventional wisdom holds that, in the face of turbulence,
decisionmaking and strategy formulation must be pushed down
tothelowestlevelspossibleinanorganization,basedonthebelief
that uncertain environments are characterized by rapid change
and, consequently, windows of opportunity are narrow. In this
13. DeloitteResearch–ManagingAmidUncertainty
11
Additionally,theOperatephasedemandsamuchmoreactive
corporate office than is typically required for implementing
traditional strategic plans. Companies can only realize the value
of the flexibility they have created through their real options
portfolio if they exercise or abandon them appropriately, and
decidingwhenandhowtodothiscallsforforcefulleadershipfrom
the top.
Forexample,despiteradicallydifferentpersonalstyles,Sumner
Redstone at Viacom (the communications giant and parent
company of CBS) and Martin Sorrell at WPP (the world ‘s largest
and most diversified corporate communications firm and parent
company of Ogilvy & Mather) do not appear to focus on process
issuesorleadershipsuccessionthewaysuchlegendarymanagers
as Jack Welch at General Electric or Larry Bossidy at the former
AlliedSignal are reported to have done. Rather, they are deeply
involved in determining and driving when and how once
autonomous and independent divisions should begin to
cooperate in order to capture the value of synergies in the face of
changing competitive pressures.
Abandoning options requires just as much, if not more,
direction from the corporate office.An investment’s option value
lies primarily in the flexibility to avoid making money-losing
investments. No one would ever exercise a financial option that
was out of the money,and the same should apply to real options
as well. The problem is that organizational politics frequently
intervenes and specific projects end up remaining funded long
after any reasonable hope of turning a profit has evaporated.
Forexample,inthecaseofCisco’sflexibleapproachtohuman
resources, it may be difficult to decide not to hire back the 80
people who took part in its Community Fellowship program – for
to incur the expense of keeping them on partial salary for a year
onlytolaythemoffanywaymightsuggestthattheprogramitself
was a failure.Few managers would want such a failure associated
with their efforts.
To view an unexercised option as a failure, however, is to
overlook the benefits of hedging strategic risk.As with insurance
policies,just because it might turn out that they are not needed
doesnotmeanthattheyareabadidea.IfCiscoendsupnothiring
these people back because the recession turns out to be longer
than anticipated,one can only criticize the company in hindsight.
Whenthedecisionwasmadeinmid-2000,itwasaninnovative
and bold move that created valuable flexibility for the company.
Cisco had no way of knowing what its human resource
requirementswouldbeinthefuture–butitknewithadtoreduce
itssalaryexpensesimmediately.Thefellowshipprogramachieved
both ends,allowing the company to compete more effectively in
the present while still positioning it to compete in a range of
possible futures – the very essence of strategic flexibility.
14. 12
Conclusion
About the duration of the recession we have this to say: “the
shorter the better”. Beyond this,we have no further insight.
However, organizations that use this time of economic
contraction and uncertainty to prepare themselves to respond to
thefutureasitpresentsitselfwill,onaverage,deliversubstantially
more value to their shareholders than organizations that bet on a
single outcome.
Of course, flexibility comes at a cost; the organization that
executes a strategy premised on a prediction of the future that
turns out to be right will always do better than an organization
thathasinvestedinflexibility.Eachwillbeequallywell-positioned
for a given set of circumstances, but the inflexible company will
havedonesoatthecostofbearingconsiderablygreaterriskalong
the way.
Counting on “prediction-based” approach to succeed
consistently is hardly advisable, however: it amounts to betting
shareholders’ money on management’s clairvoyance. One need
only remind oneself that Las Vegas was not built on the backs of
the winners to see the folly of this as a foundation of strategic
planning.
Consequently, the combination of scenario, based planning
and a calibrated commitment to contingent strategies through
real options – that is,Strategic Flexibility – offers a powerful tool
for an organization to be able to act in the face of uncertainty.
In the words of Peter Drucker,“prediction is not a worthwhile
activity.”Butneitherisinactivity.StrategicFlexibilityallowsoneto
abandon prediction and accept uncertainty without being
paralyzed by it, and instead act forcefully and purposefully
confident in the knowledge that a firm’s strategy has prepared it
for whatever lies ahead.
15. DeloitteResearch–ManagingAmidUncertainty
13
End Notes
1
Weber, Steven (1997), "The End of the Business Cycle”, Foreign
Affairs.
2
“Recession -What Recession?”,Investor’sChronicle,July 14,2000.
3
“Uncertainty Inc.”,TheWall Street Journal,October 16,2001.
4
“Cease Fire: Companies That Keep Workers in Hard Times Can
Win,“ Forbes,November 26,2001.
5
For more on overcoming the challenges of implementing CRM,
see“How to Eat the CRM Elephant,”Deloitte Consulting,2001.
6
Depaula, Matthew. “Payments: Busting a B-2-B Move”,
FutureBanker,June 18,2001.
7
“Stationary draw”,The Economist,August 9,2001
8
See Raynor, M.E. and J. L. Bower (2001),“Lead from the Center:
Howtomanagedivisionsdynamically”,HarvardBusinessReview,
May.
16. 14
Author
MICHAEL E.RAYNOR
Tel:+1.416.874.3308
Email: mraynor@dc.com
Michael Raynor is a Director in Deloitte Research. His research focuses on corporate strategy. He has a doctorate from the Harvard
Business School,an MBA from the Ivey School of Business,and an undergraduate degree in Philosophy from Harvard University. He is
based inToronto.
The author would like to express his thanks and appreciation for comments and advice from a number of colleagues, especially
Dwight Allen (Washington DC) and Gordon Coutts (Toronto).
About Deloitte Research
Deloitte Research,a permanent thought leadership organization established by Deloitte &Touche and Deloitte Consulting,is dedicated
to providing ongoing research and insight into the critical global and industry-specific issues facing business today.Comprised of both
practitionersanddedicatedresearchprofessionalsfromaroundtheworld,DeloitteResearchcombinesindustryexperiencewithacademic
rigor.Our research identifies and analyzes market forces and major strategic,organizational and technical issues that are changing the
dynamicsofbusiness.Itfocusesonleading-edgeindustry-specificissuesandglobaltrends,providinginsightintonewevolvingchallenges.
FormoreinformationaboutDeloitteResearchpleasecontacttheGlobalDirector,AnnBaxter,at415.783.4952orviaemail:abaxter@dc.com.
Recent Deloitte Research Strategy and OperationsThought Leadership:
s Collaborative Knowledge Networks: DrivingWorkforce PerformanceThrough Web-Enabled Communities
s Digital Loyalty Networks: eDifferentiated Customer and Supply Chain Management
s Mobilizing the Enterprise:Unlocking the RealValue ofWireless
s Strategic Flexibility in the Communications Industry:Making Billion-Dollar Bets in aWorld of Uncertainty
s Strategic Flexibility in the Energy Industry:Competing in a Decade of Uncertainty:2000-2010
s Strategic Flexibility in the Financial Services Industry:Creating Competitive Advantage Out of CompetitiveTurbulence
Please visitwww.dc.com for the latest Deloitte Research thought leadership or contact us atTel:+1.212.492.3791
or e-mail:delresearch@dc.com.
18. 16
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