This document discusses a study analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on cattle farming in Austria using temperature-humidity index (THI) models. The study uses regional climate models to project changes in THI levels from 1951-1980 to 2071-2100. It then estimates potential milk yield losses for cows above certain THI threshold levels. Economic impacts are calculated for different scenarios. The results suggest small negative economic impacts from direct heat stress on cows of 0-1.9% of total production value by 2100, though uncertainties remain based on the models and parameters used. Adaptation options may help decrease impacts.

1. Climate Change Impacts on Cattle in Austria Revealed by THI-Models to Support Integrated Land Use Models
Martin Schönhart, Imran Nadeem
Institute for Sustainable Economic Development & Institute of Meteorology
University of Natural Resources and Live Sciences, Vienna
LiveM Livestock Modelling and Research Colloquium
Bilbao, 15 October 2014
CATMILK

2. Integrated land use models from an economic perspective
Land use and livestock management decision
…integrating disciplinary knowledge to answer complex questions of (agricultural and forestry) land use
Management options
Resources
Land use choices
Policies
Markets
Environmental outcome
Livestock choices
feedbacks and inter-linkages
direct drivers
Global change

3. Typical management options for bio- physical modelling
e.g. Kirchner et al., 2014

4. Modelled average climate change impacts on Austrian agriculture
- relative changes of
gross margins
- 4 RCM simulations
- 3 adaptation and
policy scenarios
Schönhart et al. (2014)
Livestock
-all major production activities are included
-differentiation among production system (i.e. conventional vs. organic production)
-[differentiation of housing and manure management]
-links to crop production
-choices on optimal feed
Indirect climate change impact from feed availability

5. Example of direct climate change impact: heat stress
Source: Armstrong(1994)

6. Methodology and Data
1.Regionally downscaled climate change data (RCM ALADIN driven by GCM ARPEGE with SRES A1B) at daily resolution
2.Statistics on cow numbers, milk yields and prices
3.Estimation of temperature humidity index (THI)
4.Estimation of milk yield losses above critical THI threshold at NUTS3 level
5.Economic valuation of milk yield losses
6.Sensitivity analysis

7. Climate change data
-RCM ALADIN driven by GCM ARPEGE with SRES A1B
-Periods: 1951-1980 & 2071-2100

8. Represented THI models
Tdb dry bulb temperature
Tdp dew point temperature
Tmax maximum temperature
Tmin minimum temperature
RH relative humidity
RHmax relative humidty during Tmax
RHmin relative humidty during Tmax
taken from Walter and Löpmeier (2010)

9. Basic assumptions
•uniform average temperature at national level (AT) and per NUTS3
•milk yield of suckler cows valued by 50% milk price
•Herd size remains unchanged
•THI models transferable and applicable
•THI threshold and milk yield loss taken based on Kolb (2012)
•THI threshold and milk yield loss applicable to all THI models
Critical scenario parameters
Low
Base
High
milk yield loss per THI point (liter/THI)
0.20
0.25
0.30
critical THI threshold
72
69
67
milk price (€/kg)
0.20
0.30
0.40

10. 1951-1980
2071-2100
Average values for 5 THI models

11. Grey line indicates critical THI threshold assumed in base scenario
Distribution of daily THI values at AT level and for periods 1951/1980 and 2071/2100

12. Grey line indicates critical THI threshold assumed in base scenario
Distribution of daily THI values at NUTS3 level and for periods 1951/1980 and 2071/2100

13. THI values above 69 from 1951-2100 for model NRC

14. Loss of production value (€) at national level from climate change 2071/2100

15. Loss of production value (% of total production) from climate change 2071/2100

16. Discussion on results
•Economic losses are between 0% and -1.9% in 2071/2100 depending on
–the THI model
–basic parameter assumptions (scenarios)
•Losses in the base scenario: -0.29% & -0.34%
–for plausible parameter assumptions and
–plausible THI models
•This seems reasonable
–study for Lower Saxony (GER): negative impacts on dairy yields are in the range of -0.1% to -0.4% until 2100

17. Discussion on methods
•Choice of THI model should take climate conditions into account (see Bohmanova et al., 2007)
•THI thresholds and yield losses likely are THI model dependent

18. Conclusions
•Direct climate change impacts on livestock appear small compared to indirect impacts from changing feed availability in Austria
•Uncertainties from the parameters and models are considerable (~ factor 40) but choice of “plausible” results can reduce uncertainty (~ factor 10)
•Integration of a THI model into integrated land use models is straightforward
–Impacts on relative competitiveness of dairy and suckler cow production compared to other livestock and cropping activities…
–…but requires consideration of direct climate change impacts on all livestock activities to prevent biases
•Adaptation options likely decrease the impacts but must be economically feasible (only low tech. options)
•Impact on grazing unclear: heat stress (-) vs. extended vegetation periods (+)
•Studies like this can guide research foci

19. THANKS!
 Institute for Sustainable Economic Development | martin.schoenhart@boku.ac.at
© M. Schönhart
Research to this presentation has been supported by the project CATMILK (Austrian Climate Research Programme) and by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management of Austria within the FACCE-JPI Knowledge Hub MACSUR.

20. References
Armstrong, D.V., 1994. Heat Stress Interaction with Shade and Cooling. Journal of Dairy Science 77, 2044–2050.
Bohmanova, J., Misztal, I., Cole, J.B., 2007. Temperature-Humidity Indices as Indicators of Milk Production Losses due to Heat Stress. Journal of Dairy Science 90, 1947–1956.
Kirchner, M., Schmidt, J., Kindermann, G., Kulmer, V., Mitter, H., Prettenthaler, F., Rüdisser, J., Schauppenlehner, T., Schönhart, M., Strauss, F., Tappeiner, U., Tasser, E., Schmid, E., 2014. Ecosystem services and economic development in Austrian agricultural landscapes - The impact of policy and climate change scenarios on trade-offs and synergies. Ecological Economics, (under review).
Kolb, C., 2012. Einfluss von Klimaelementen auf Milchparameter unter Bedingungen der Vollweidehaltung von Milchkühen. Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien.
Martinsohn, M., Hansen, H., 2013. Ökonomische Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die niedersächsische Milchproduktion. Berichte über Landwirtschaft 91(3).
Schönhart, M., Mitter, H., Schmid, E., Heinrich, G., Gobiet, A., 2014. Integrated Analysis of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Austrian Agriculture. German Journal of Agricultural Economics 63, 156–176.
Walter, K., Löpmeier, F.-J., 2010. Fütterung und Haltung von Hochleistungskühen. 5. Hochleistungskühe und Klimawandel. vTI Agriculture and Forestry Research 60, 17–34.