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Sustainable Flood Risk Management
Babak Bozorgy
HIPS Lunchtime Seminar, 23 Mar. 2008
Buzz words
• Sustainability
• Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM)
Sustainability
• Do what is needed now, but
without compromising the needs of
future generations
• sustainability = trade-off
o now versus future
o economy versus environment
IWRM
• Integration of:
o surface water and groundwater
o quantity and quality
o ecological aspects
o other fields: environmental planning, spatial
planning, etc
• from sectoral approach to holistic approach
• process orientation + economics + institutions
Dublin principles - 1992
• Fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource,
essential to sustain life, development and
environment
• Water development and management should be
based on a participatory approach, involving
users, planners and policy makers at all levels
• Women play a central part in the provision,
management and safeguarding of water
• Water has an economic value in all its competing
uses and should be recognized as an economic
good
Definition of IWRM
Global Water Partnership (GWP), 2000:
IWRM is a process which promotes the co-
ordinated development and management of
water, land and related resources, in order
to maximise the resultant economic and
social welfare in an equitable manner
without compromising the sustainability of
vital ecosystems
See: Tec 4 of GWP
natural system
impacts
demandsnatural system socio-economic
system
infrastructure
impacts
demands
laws,
regulations,
management
natural system
institutional
system
socio-economic
system
infrastructure
impacts
demands
laws,
regulations,
management
natural system
institutional
system
socio-economic
system
integrated
water resources
management
Identify issues
Evaluation
Implementation
Action planning
Select alternative
Design and assess alternative
Analyse problems
Content
Awareness raising
Mobilising actors
Dialogue
Link problems-solutions
Negotiate contributions
Fix commitment
Express concerns
Process
IWRM
• IWRM is a learning process (steps,
interaction)
• IWRM = balancing of interests
(functions)
• To be applied at river basin level
• Implementation is culture and
situation dependent
Learn from others, don’t copy !
The challenge of IWRM
To strike a balance between the use of the resources as a
basis for livelihood and the protection and conservation of
the resource to sustain its functions and characteristics
Flood
•Floods are the most common and
destructive events among natural
disasters
•Flood events and their damages have
been increased in the recent decades
Flood Management
•So, traditional approaches of flood
management have not been able to
control the damages of floods and
adoption of new approaches is
essential. The need for new
approaches of Sustainable
Development, Risk Management and
Resilience is emphasised in:
Flood Management
•Earth Summit, UN Div. for S.D.,
Agenda 21, Rio, 1992
• Intl. Strategy for Disaster
Reduction, UN, 2000
• World Summit on S.D. (WSSD),
Johannesburg, 2003
•Intl. Decade for Action, Water for Life
2005-2015, UN G.A.
Traditional and new approaches to flood
management
Risk = event probability * consequences
Flood Management
Traditional and new approaches to flood
management
Risk = event probability * consequences
Traditional strategies = Resistant strategies
= Flood control to reduce event probability
with resistant measures such as dikes
increased dikes height = increased
confidence = increased economic
development = increased risk
Flood Management
Risk = event probability * consequences
New strategies = Risk management
strategies = Resilient strategies
Introduced as one of the principles of
Sustainable Development
Flood Management
Resilience = Ability of a system to withstand
disturbances by recovery
Resistance = Ability of a system to withstand
disturbances without any reaction
Flood Management
Resilience in natural disasters is one of the
elements of Sustainable Development
Flood Management
IFM is a process that promotes an integrated,
rather than fragmented, approach to flood
management. It integrates land and water
resources development in a river basin,
within the context of IWRM, and aims to
maximize the net benefit from floodplains
and to minimize loss to life from flooding
Ref.: Associated Programme on Flood Management
(APFM), GWP
Integrated Flood Management (IFM)
•More Room for Rivers or
Learning to Live With
Floods
•Landuse Planning
•Green Rivers (Bypass
Channels)
•Compartments (Detention
Ponds)
•Flood Forecasting and Flood
Warning
•Evacuation Plans
•Flood Insurance
Resilient Strategies in Flood Management
Quantifying resilience by indicators
•Amplitude
• Expected Annual Damages (EAD)
• Expected Annual Number of Casualties
(EANC)
Resilient Strategies in Flood Management
∫
=
=
)0(
10000/1
)(
DP
dPPPDEAD
∫
=
=
)0(
10000/1
)(
DP
dPPPCEANC
•Graduality
Resilient Strategies in Flood Management
GResis.=0 GResil.=0.91 GComb.=0.7
•Recovery Rate/Capacity
Resilient Strategies in Flood Management
•Ranking the different flood risk management
strategies and choosing the best/most
resilient strategy is a Multi-Criteria Decision
Making (MCDM) problem which can be
addressed by Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE)
techniques. This is also called Decision
Support System (DSS)
Multi-Criteria Decision Making
Gorgan River Basin, North-West Iran
Case Study
Case Study
Reach 2 –
Urban Area
Reach 1 – Rural Area
Flood Management Strategies:
•Strategy #1: Natural Conditions
•Strategy #2: Golestan Dam
•Strategy #3: Dikes along the reaches
•Strategy #4: Green Rivers
•Strategy #5: Flood Warning System
•Strategy #6: Flood Insurance
•Strategy #6: Flood Warning System & Flood
Insurance
Case Study
Flood Inundation Modelling (Flood Mapping)
•For all the strategies with 2, 5, 10, 25, 50,
100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000 and 1000
years return periods with MIKE FLOOD
(Dynamic couple of MIKE 11 and MIKE 21)
Case Study
Flood mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
Case Study
Flood Damage (EAD) Estimation and Mapping
Case Study
Flood damage mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
Casualties (EANC) Estimation and Mapping
Case Study
Casualties mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
Casualties (EANC) Estimation and Mapping
Case Study
Casualties mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
Ranking of the strategies by MCDM
Case Study
Evaluation Matrix
Decision Matrix
Case Study
2nd part
Thank you for your attention
“No loss by flood and lightening, no
destruction of cities and temples by
the hostile forces of nature, has
deprived man of so many noble lives
and impulses as those which his
intolerance has destroyed”
Helen Keller
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
•15th
largest city in the world in terms of
population (Ref.: Wikipedia) (8-12 mill.)
•700 km2
•>800m difference in altitude in urban area
•>2500m difference in altitude in the
catchment area
•Very steep slope in North-South direction
•Very mild slope in East-West direction
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
Niayesh Highway – Sepah Complex (7th
March 2005)JWRC April 2005
Farahzad St. (7th
March 2005)
JWRC April 2005
Farahzad St. (7th
March 2005)
JWRC April 2005
Sazman-e-Ab St. (7th
March 2005)
JWRC April 2005
Farahzad Water Way (7th
March
2005)JWRC April 2005
Azari T- Junction (7th
March
2005)JWRC April 2005
Tappeh Neyzar Channel (7th
March 2005)
JWRC April 2005
Tappeh Neyzar Channel (7th
March 2005)
JWRC April 2005
West Flood Diversion Channel (7th
March 2005)
Farahzad River
Diversion Channel
JWRC April 2005
Niayesh Highway (7th
March
2005)
JWRC April 2005
Niayesh Highway (7th
March
2005)
JWRC April 2005
Niayesh Highway (7th
March
2005)
JWRC April 2005
Yadegar Highway (7th
March
2005)
JWRC April 2005
Yadegar Highway (7th
March
2005)
JWRC April 2005
JWRC April 2005
Resalat
Highway
Velenjak River
Velenjak River – Moqaddas Ardebili Cross
Velenjak River – Sediment Detention Basin
Velenjak River – Downstream of Sediment
Detention Basin
JWRC April 2005
Velenjak River – Between Moqaddas Ardebili
and Chamran Highway
Velenjak River – Nil St. Velenjak River – MIrdamad Cross
Velenjak River – Entrance to the Diversion
Tunnel
JWRC April 2005
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
4
5 2
1
22
3
21
6
9
18
7
15
8
20
16
14
13
1211
19
17
10N
EW
S
Regions of Tehran
Flood ways of Tehran
3 0 3 6 9 Kilometers
510000
510000
515000
515000
520000
520000
525000
525000
530000
530000
535000
535000
540000
540000
545000
545000
550000
550000
555000
555000
3935000
3935000
3940000
3940000
3945000
3945000
3950000
3950000
3955000
3955000
3960000
3960000
3965000
3965000
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
Drainage System
(North and East)Drainage System
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
N
EW
S
526000
526000
528000
528000
530000
530000
532000
532000
534000
534000
536000
536000
538000
538000
540000
540000
542000
542000
3954000
3954000
3956000
3956000
3958000
3958000
3960000
3960000
3962000
3962000
3964000
3964000
3966000
3966000
3968000
3968000
3970000
3970000
3972000
3972000
City Boundary
U/S Basins
Lower than 1200 m
1200 - 1500 m
1500 - 1800 m
1800 - 2100 m
2100 - 2400 m
2400 - 2700 m
2700 - 3000 m
3000 - 3300 m
3300 - 3600 m
Upper than 3600 m
No Data
Basin Boundary
Buildings
4 0 4 8 12 Kilometers
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
4
5 2
1
22
3
21
6
9
18
7
15
8
20
16
14
13
1211
19
17
10
N
EW
S
526000
526000
528000
528000
530000
530000
532000
532000
534000
534000
536000
536000
538000
538000
540000
540000
542000
542000
3954000
3954000
3956000
3956000
3958000
3958000
3960000
3960000
3962000
3962000
3964000
3964000
3966000
3966000
3968000
3968000
3970000
3970000
3972000
3972000
Slope of Tehran
0 - 1 %
1 - 5 %
5 - 10 %
10 - 15 %
15 - 20 %
20 - 30 %
30 - 40
40 - 50 %
Upper than 50 %
No Data
Regions of Tehran
6 0 6 12 18 Kilometers
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
N
EW
S
Basin Area
Lower than 1200 m
1200 - 1500 m
1500 - 1800 m
1800 - 2100 m
2100 - 2400 m
2400 - 2700 m
2700 - 3000 m
3000 - 3300 m
3300 - 3600 m
Upper than 3600 m
No Data
Buildings
100 Year Flood Plain
Flloodways
2 0 2 4 6 8 Kilometers
518000 520000 522000 524000 526000 528000 530000 532000 534000
3942000
3942000
3944000
3944000
3946000
3946000
3948000
3948000
3950000
3950000
3952000
3952000
3954000
3954000
3956000
3956000
3958000
3958000
3960000
3960000
3962000
3962000
3964000
3964000
3966000
3966000
396
8000
Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies
Thank you for your attention
“No loss by flood and lightening, no
destruction of cities and temples by
the hostile forces of nature, has
deprived man of so many noble lives
and impulses as those which his
intolerance has destroyed”
Helen Keller

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Lunchtime seminar babak

  • 1. Sustainable Flood Risk Management Babak Bozorgy HIPS Lunchtime Seminar, 23 Mar. 2008
  • 2. Buzz words • Sustainability • Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)
  • 3. Sustainability • Do what is needed now, but without compromising the needs of future generations • sustainability = trade-off o now versus future o economy versus environment
  • 4. IWRM • Integration of: o surface water and groundwater o quantity and quality o ecological aspects o other fields: environmental planning, spatial planning, etc • from sectoral approach to holistic approach • process orientation + economics + institutions
  • 5. Dublin principles - 1992 • Fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and environment • Water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policy makers at all levels • Women play a central part in the provision, management and safeguarding of water • Water has an economic value in all its competing uses and should be recognized as an economic good
  • 6. Definition of IWRM Global Water Partnership (GWP), 2000: IWRM is a process which promotes the co- ordinated development and management of water, land and related resources, in order to maximise the resultant economic and social welfare in an equitable manner without compromising the sustainability of vital ecosystems See: Tec 4 of GWP
  • 11. Identify issues Evaluation Implementation Action planning Select alternative Design and assess alternative Analyse problems Content Awareness raising Mobilising actors Dialogue Link problems-solutions Negotiate contributions Fix commitment Express concerns Process
  • 12. IWRM • IWRM is a learning process (steps, interaction) • IWRM = balancing of interests (functions) • To be applied at river basin level • Implementation is culture and situation dependent Learn from others, don’t copy !
  • 13. The challenge of IWRM To strike a balance between the use of the resources as a basis for livelihood and the protection and conservation of the resource to sustain its functions and characteristics
  • 14.
  • 15. Flood •Floods are the most common and destructive events among natural disasters •Flood events and their damages have been increased in the recent decades
  • 16.
  • 17. Flood Management •So, traditional approaches of flood management have not been able to control the damages of floods and adoption of new approaches is essential. The need for new approaches of Sustainable Development, Risk Management and Resilience is emphasised in:
  • 18. Flood Management •Earth Summit, UN Div. for S.D., Agenda 21, Rio, 1992 • Intl. Strategy for Disaster Reduction, UN, 2000 • World Summit on S.D. (WSSD), Johannesburg, 2003 •Intl. Decade for Action, Water for Life 2005-2015, UN G.A.
  • 19. Traditional and new approaches to flood management Risk = event probability * consequences Flood Management
  • 20. Traditional and new approaches to flood management Risk = event probability * consequences Traditional strategies = Resistant strategies = Flood control to reduce event probability with resistant measures such as dikes increased dikes height = increased confidence = increased economic development = increased risk Flood Management
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Risk = event probability * consequences New strategies = Risk management strategies = Resilient strategies Introduced as one of the principles of Sustainable Development Flood Management
  • 24. Resilience = Ability of a system to withstand disturbances by recovery Resistance = Ability of a system to withstand disturbances without any reaction Flood Management
  • 25. Resilience in natural disasters is one of the elements of Sustainable Development Flood Management
  • 26. IFM is a process that promotes an integrated, rather than fragmented, approach to flood management. It integrates land and water resources development in a river basin, within the context of IWRM, and aims to maximize the net benefit from floodplains and to minimize loss to life from flooding Ref.: Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM), GWP Integrated Flood Management (IFM)
  • 27. •More Room for Rivers or Learning to Live With Floods •Landuse Planning •Green Rivers (Bypass Channels) •Compartments (Detention Ponds) •Flood Forecasting and Flood Warning •Evacuation Plans •Flood Insurance Resilient Strategies in Flood Management
  • 28. Quantifying resilience by indicators •Amplitude • Expected Annual Damages (EAD) • Expected Annual Number of Casualties (EANC) Resilient Strategies in Flood Management ∫ = = )0( 10000/1 )( DP dPPPDEAD ∫ = = )0( 10000/1 )( DP dPPPCEANC
  • 29. •Graduality Resilient Strategies in Flood Management GResis.=0 GResil.=0.91 GComb.=0.7
  • 31. •Ranking the different flood risk management strategies and choosing the best/most resilient strategy is a Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problem which can be addressed by Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) techniques. This is also called Decision Support System (DSS) Multi-Criteria Decision Making
  • 32. Gorgan River Basin, North-West Iran Case Study
  • 33. Case Study Reach 2 – Urban Area Reach 1 – Rural Area
  • 34. Flood Management Strategies: •Strategy #1: Natural Conditions •Strategy #2: Golestan Dam •Strategy #3: Dikes along the reaches •Strategy #4: Green Rivers •Strategy #5: Flood Warning System •Strategy #6: Flood Insurance •Strategy #6: Flood Warning System & Flood Insurance Case Study
  • 35. Flood Inundation Modelling (Flood Mapping) •For all the strategies with 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, 500, 1000, 2000, 5000 and 1000 years return periods with MIKE FLOOD (Dynamic couple of MIKE 11 and MIKE 21) Case Study
  • 36. Flood mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood Case Study
  • 37. Flood Damage (EAD) Estimation and Mapping Case Study Flood damage mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
  • 38. Casualties (EANC) Estimation and Mapping Case Study Casualties mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
  • 39. Casualties (EANC) Estimation and Mapping Case Study Casualties mapping in Strategy #1, 1000 years flood
  • 40. Ranking of the strategies by MCDM Case Study Evaluation Matrix Decision Matrix
  • 42. Thank you for your attention “No loss by flood and lightening, no destruction of cities and temples by the hostile forces of nature, has deprived man of so many noble lives and impulses as those which his intolerance has destroyed” Helen Keller
  • 44. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies •15th largest city in the world in terms of population (Ref.: Wikipedia) (8-12 mill.) •700 km2 •>800m difference in altitude in urban area •>2500m difference in altitude in the catchment area •Very steep slope in North-South direction •Very mild slope in East-West direction
  • 47. Niayesh Highway – Sepah Complex (7th March 2005)JWRC April 2005
  • 48. Farahzad St. (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
  • 49. Farahzad St. (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
  • 50. Sazman-e-Ab St. (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
  • 51. Farahzad Water Way (7th March 2005)JWRC April 2005
  • 52. Azari T- Junction (7th March 2005)JWRC April 2005
  • 53. Tappeh Neyzar Channel (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
  • 54. Tappeh Neyzar Channel (7th March 2005) JWRC April 2005
  • 55. West Flood Diversion Channel (7th March 2005) Farahzad River Diversion Channel JWRC April 2005
  • 62. Velenjak River Velenjak River – Moqaddas Ardebili Cross Velenjak River – Sediment Detention Basin Velenjak River – Downstream of Sediment Detention Basin JWRC April 2005
  • 63. Velenjak River – Between Moqaddas Ardebili and Chamran Highway Velenjak River – Nil St. Velenjak River – MIrdamad Cross Velenjak River – Entrance to the Diversion Tunnel JWRC April 2005
  • 64. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies 4 5 2 1 22 3 21 6 9 18 7 15 8 20 16 14 13 1211 19 17 10N EW S Regions of Tehran Flood ways of Tehran 3 0 3 6 9 Kilometers 510000 510000 515000 515000 520000 520000 525000 525000 530000 530000 535000 535000 540000 540000 545000 545000 550000 550000 555000 555000 3935000 3935000 3940000 3940000 3945000 3945000 3950000 3950000 3955000 3955000 3960000 3960000 3965000 3965000
  • 65. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies Drainage System (North and East)Drainage System
  • 66. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies N EW S 526000 526000 528000 528000 530000 530000 532000 532000 534000 534000 536000 536000 538000 538000 540000 540000 542000 542000 3954000 3954000 3956000 3956000 3958000 3958000 3960000 3960000 3962000 3962000 3964000 3964000 3966000 3966000 3968000 3968000 3970000 3970000 3972000 3972000 City Boundary U/S Basins Lower than 1200 m 1200 - 1500 m 1500 - 1800 m 1800 - 2100 m 2100 - 2400 m 2400 - 2700 m 2700 - 3000 m 3000 - 3300 m 3300 - 3600 m Upper than 3600 m No Data Basin Boundary Buildings 4 0 4 8 12 Kilometers
  • 67. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies 4 5 2 1 22 3 21 6 9 18 7 15 8 20 16 14 13 1211 19 17 10 N EW S 526000 526000 528000 528000 530000 530000 532000 532000 534000 534000 536000 536000 538000 538000 540000 540000 542000 542000 3954000 3954000 3956000 3956000 3958000 3958000 3960000 3960000 3962000 3962000 3964000 3964000 3966000 3966000 3968000 3968000 3970000 3970000 3972000 3972000 Slope of Tehran 0 - 1 % 1 - 5 % 5 - 10 % 10 - 15 % 15 - 20 % 20 - 30 % 30 - 40 40 - 50 % Upper than 50 % No Data Regions of Tehran 6 0 6 12 18 Kilometers
  • 72. Tehran Flood Mitigation Studies N EW S Basin Area Lower than 1200 m 1200 - 1500 m 1500 - 1800 m 1800 - 2100 m 2100 - 2400 m 2400 - 2700 m 2700 - 3000 m 3000 - 3300 m 3300 - 3600 m Upper than 3600 m No Data Buildings 100 Year Flood Plain Flloodways 2 0 2 4 6 8 Kilometers 518000 520000 522000 524000 526000 528000 530000 532000 534000 3942000 3942000 3944000 3944000 3946000 3946000 3948000 3948000 3950000 3950000 3952000 3952000 3954000 3954000 3956000 3956000 3958000 3958000 3960000 3960000 3962000 3962000 3964000 3964000 3966000 3966000 396 8000
  • 74. Thank you for your attention “No loss by flood and lightening, no destruction of cities and temples by the hostile forces of nature, has deprived man of so many noble lives and impulses as those which his intolerance has destroyed” Helen Keller

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